must read before betting this week-end
12/24/2008
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
ODDSMAKERS USING SELF DEFENSE IN SUNDAY’S MUST-WIN GAMES
The sportsbooks HATE the final week of NFL action.
*Everyone knows which teams need to win, and which teams don’t care. The public bets heavily on the teams that need to win.
*Everyone knows that pointspreads tend not to discourage the public no matter how high they get.
*That means the sportsbooks are going to be one-sided in a lot of games no matter what they try to do.
I’ve mentioned several times this year here and elsewhere that it’s a MYTH that sportsbooks try to split the action. It’s okay if that happens. It rarely does. Sportsbooks try to make the public bet at bad numbers knowing that the public eventually loses…and that betting at bad numbers will just make them lose faster!
On a week like this there are a lot of games where this has come into play. I’ll outline for you what the sharps are thinking about Sunday’s NFL in our regular spot on Saturday. Today, I’m going to outline what the ODDSMAKERS were thinking in games matching “must-win” teams and non-contenders. It’s very important that YOU know this as you make your decisions for the weekend.
Note that there are three games were BOTH teams need to win. Those are Miami/NY Jets, Dallas/Philadelphia, and Denver/San Diego. The lines weren’t adjusted in those games because of “need” because both teams had it.
In rotation order:
OAKLAND AT TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay is a 13-point favorite even though nobody can remember the last time they won a game! The Bucs lost badly last week to San Diego, and were coming off tough divisional losses to Atlanta and Carolina. Oakland hadn’t been putting out much of an effort for weeks until good showings of late. The Raiders beat Houston last week as a 7-point home underdog. If those Raiders show up again, this line is too high. I think in terms of how the public views these two teams…the line may go up even higher over the weekend. This line isn’t really that crazy if Houston was -7 at Oakland. The point is…that high line was based on the thought that Oakland had thrown in the towel on the season. It turned out to be wrong. Oakland’s attitude will determine who covers. If this game were played at midseason, Tampa Bay probably would have been around -8 or so. Computer programs only looking at the last few weeks might make it as low as -5 or -6. We definitely have some inflation here.
NY GIANTS AT MINNESOTA: The Vikings are -6.5 in the early number, when they’d definitely be home underdogs if this were a normal regular season game…or a playoff game being played in Minnesota. If these teams were to meet in January in New York, the Giants would be prohibitive favorites. This line has been moved about TEN POINTS because the Vikings need the win and the Giants have nothing to play for. Yet, the sportsbooks will still be one-sided because it’s very hard for sharps or squares to risk money on a team that may not be trying. There’s nothing there to balance the “need” betting. Sportsbooks will be rooting for the Giants this week…which is a rare occurrence these days.
CHICAGO AT HOUSTON: Chicago was a small road favorite on the opener. Houston was only +3 at home to Tennessee…who’s the top seed in the AFC. There’s no way Chicago is just a point or two worse than Tennessee…so we definitely have an adjustment. It’s far from 10 points though. Maybe a field goal or so. Why so little? Squares prefer betting on home teams that need to win rather than road teams. They figure there’s more blowout potential. Also, Houston had been playing well before the mental lapse at Oakland. Chicago has a short preparation week too. I supposed it’s also worth mentioning that Minnesota controls its destiny while Chicago doesn’t. The public likes betting on teams who can take care of business themselves with victories.
CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: Carolina is a 3-point road favorite in a spot where they’d probably be a small dog normally. New Orleans gets a lot of respect at home, and posts some big results. Carolina is definitely closing very strong…and probably wouldn’t be too big a dog if they were getting points in a game that mattered to both. It would be a great game that everyone would be looking forward too. We may still get that this week. The public will have to pay an extra tax for thinking the Panthers will be trying to lock in a bye week with a victory. Should Carolina lose, they’d probably have to play the next week as a Wildcard.
ST. LOUIS AT ATLANTA: Atlanta is a whopping 15-point favorite, and this line may go higher because St. Louis has been so bad vs. good teams this year. The Falcons would win the NFC South with a victory here and a loss by Carolina. They don’t control their own destiny…but that’s far from a longshot. Given the fact that Atlanta’s been playing so well, AND St. Louis has been in the tank…the public would probably lay anything less than 20. In a normal week, the Falcons would probably be 9-11 point favorites depending on what had just happened the few prior games. Another really big adjustment for a home team.
JACKSONVILLE AT BALTIMORE: Could you have imagined before the season started that Baltimore would be laying 13 points to Jacksonville with a rookie quarterback?! Baltimore has to win to lock up a Wildcard spot. Jacksonville is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Indianapolis in what’s truly been a lost season. If this were the 2008 season opener, the Jags probably would have been small road favorites. Move it to October, and Baltimore is probably a small home favorite. A month ago…Baltimore’s probably about a touchdown. We’re looking at two touchdowns now because the Ravens have to win and Jacksonville’s effort comes and goes. The books will be rooting for a lot of double digit dogs this week.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: The Patriots are -6 or -6.5 here depending on the store as I write this. New England was -3.5 when they played AT HOME! Talk about backwards. Buffalo would normally be a small favorite here based on a normal turnaround. A team laying 6.5 on the road would be laying 12-13 at home if you look at it from the other direction. Clearly there’s about a TD of line inflation in this one. New England has to win and hope Miami loses to the Jets or Baltimore loses to Jacksonville. Buffalo relished its spoiler role in Denver last week…and almost knocked off the Jets the week before. Sportsbooks will be probably be rooting for the Bills here. I should note though that a lot of sharps were on Buffalo in Denver last week…and they might step in again on the value underdog in a way that shares the burden.
There you go…inflation all over the card! Some home teams and New England have seen adjustments of almost a TD or more. Some of the road teams have been adjusted at least a field goal based only on need and nothing else.
As handicappers, you have to figure out which spots are worth trying to exploit, and which potential lay down spots exist where the line just doesn’t matter. I can tell you that sharps will either take the dog or pass in games like this. Professional wagerers just don’t lay 12-15 points in the NFL very often no matter who’s on the field or how little the dog is supposed to care. The public has no trouble backing the must-win teams. Some years they clean up because many of the bad teams just don’t show up. Last week was an example of the opposite. The public got hurt when:
*Dallas lost as a favorite to Baltimore
*Philadelphia lost as a favorite to Washington
*The NY Jets lost as a favorite to Seattle
*Denver lost as a favorite to Buffalo
*Tampa Bay lost as a favorite to San Diego
*Chicago failed to cover in a close win over Green Bay What money the public has left will be on the favorites this weekend. They never learn!