Exbookie Want To Help The Player Week 16

Chachi · Dec 22, 2004

Sounds good to me, thanks Ace-Ace lets get em'! :dancefool

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ACE-ACE · Dec 22, 2004

Parrella said:
ace...you say one stat/factor you use to make your line is how far off the bookies line is from the final game score. So, if NE beats PIT by 15, and the spread is NE by 4, that's a value of +11 for NE and -11 for PIT. So say over the course of the season, NE is +60 for the course of the season. And they are playing team that is -20 for the course of the season. You then use this to favor one team over the other. I am just curious as to why you use this stat and how you assign value to this statistic. Based on your success, this stat obviously has value. I have never heard of anybody using this stat and just curious. Any information is greatly appreciated. Would you use this stat to give NE the advantage.....or its opponent.

I guess my point is something along the lines of...in your experience.....if the bookies/sportsbook lines is consistly low on a team (high+ number), is it more likely for this trend to continue for the rest of the season, or will the future lines compensate and effectively "overshoot" the line.

thanks for the info.....

IT CHANGE WEEK AFTER WEEK....NE +60 VS SOMEONE WITH -20 THAT WEEK
+60...-20= +80 DIV BY 10=8....IF OVER 50 DIV BY 2= 4POINT FAV OVER SOMEONE...PLUS OTHER THING TO FACTOR IN.....

LET DO DEN VS TEN,
DEN -31..TEN -79= 48 DIV BY 10= 4.8 FOR DEN
TIME DEN +18....TEN +38= +20 FOR TEN DIV BY 5= 4 FOR TEN
PENAL..DEN 807.....TEN 845 +38 FOR DEN DIV BY 100=.4 FOR DEN
T/O.....DEN 27.....TEN 35....8 FOR DEN DIV 3= 2.7 FOR DEN

4.8
0.4
2.5= 7.7 -4= 3.7.........THE LINE IS DEN -3 1/2

I DO NOT HAVE THE TIME TO SHOW IT ALL TO YOU....IM WORKING WITH SOMEONE TO PUT IT INTO SOFTWARE.....

I KNOW HOW THE LINE MAKER .....DO THERE LINE....WORK ON THIS FOR OVER 15 YEAR.....THE LAST 10....I HAVE TWO LOSING YEARS.....

ACE

Parrella · Dec 22, 2004

thanks a lot ace.....great info as always...good luck this week.

tbird · Dec 22, 2004

HEY ACE ACE WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT SKINS.

THANKS FOR ALL YOU DO. OH YEA I WOULD LIKE TO GET YOUR CAPPING SOFTWARE. TBIRD

ACE-ACE · Dec 22, 2004

Parrella said:
I guess my point is something along the lines of...in your experience.....if the bookies/sportsbook lines is consistly low on a team (high+ number), is it more likely for this trend to continue for the rest of the season, or will the future lines compensate and effectively "overshoot" the line.

thanks for the info.....

I GET WHAT YOU ARE ASKING FOR

SD IS ONE...START OF WEEK 1......THE LINES MAKER SAID THE OVER AND UNDER ON SD IS 4 1/2....YOU CAN BET IT OVER +115....UNDER -145

THE BOOKIE UNDER PRICE SD ALL YEAR
SHOW YOU PER WEEK
LINE.............OFF
+4 1/2..........+11
+3.................-3
+10.................0
+3..................+24
+3.................+16
+4..................+3
-6...................+22......TRY TO ADJUST WITH OAK
-6....................+20
BYE
-3 1/2...............+3
+3....................+6
-3.....................0....TIE
-5 1/2...............+2
-9.....................+12.......HIGHEST LINE LAST WEEK

SD................IS +130....THE HIGHEST OF ALL

AND IN THE PLAY-OFFS.....NO TEAM HAS WON THE SUPER OR GOT INTO THE SUPER BOWL WITH A -1 OR LOW...........THE LAST 5 ....THE LOWS WAS +77

IT A GREAT STAT TO KEEP.....

ACE

ACE-ACE · Dec 22, 2004

tbird said:
HEY ACE ACE WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT SKINS.

I SEE SAL THE ITAL....GIVE YOU THAT GAME....I GOT IT AT A
+8 VALUE... ....IM GOING TO BET IT.....JUST DONT KNOW HOW MUCH..

WHY DID THE LINE MOVE FROM DAL - 1 1/2....TO WAS -2 ????

ANYONE.............................

juice · Dec 22, 2004

Parcells was thinking about starting Henson or Romo, but has said Testaverde is now starting with Romo as the backup. I don't know if that's the reason it moved, but I don't see any other news.

SALTHEITAL · Dec 22, 2004

ACE-ACE said:
tbird said:

HEY ACE ACE WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT SKINS.

I SEE SAL THE ITAL....GIVE YOU THAT GAME....I GOT IT AT A
+8 VALUE... ....IM GOING TO BET IT.....JUST DONT KNOW HOW MUCH..

WHY DID THE LINE MOVE FROM DAL - 1 1/2....TO WAS -2 ????

ANYONE.............................

Click to expand...

How ya' doin' Ace...
Hope this answer's your question...Up until today the Tuna was leanin' on starting Tony Romo at QB...As of now,he's decided to go with Vinny.
Take care...Ciao!

This SICILIAN has OVER 20 YEARS EXPERIENCE !!!

Edamm · Dec 22, 2004

Great Season Ace-Ace...I don't post much but I read your picks all the time and I usually agree with you so I play the ones we agree on...thanks for everything all year..your the man.

E.Damm

ZMONEY · Dec 22, 2004

New to the board

Hey Ace I just joined and have been impressed with your capping skills. You really enjoy what you do and that is whats so great about betting. How do you feel about a 10 point teaser this weekend with:

Buffalo -.5
SD +17
KC +2

I lost my last two bets and Im looking for a quick rebound. Thanks and I look forward to talking to you in the future.

ACE-ACE · Dec 22, 2004

THANKS SAL AND JUICE......FOR THAT NEWS....

2 POINT THAT WAY TO POINTS THE OTHER WAY....ITS ALL THE SAME......WASH

ACE-ACE · Dec 22, 2004

ZMONEY said:
Hey Ace I just joined and have been impressed with your capping skills. You really enjoy what you do and that is whats so great about betting. How do you feel about a 10 point teaser this weekend with:

Buffalo -.5
SD +17
KC +2

I lost my last two bets and Im looking for a quick rebound. Thanks and I look forward to talking to you in the future.

I GOT THE SAME ONE - BUF.....I GOT NYJ+13.......I LOVE KC.....SD WILL NOT LOSE BY 17 POINT...

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK......AND WELCOME TO THE FORUM.......

cole1616 · Dec 22, 2004

ACE could you rate your teaser(?)

ACE, I believe, last week your POY teaser you gave a value of +46. What value do you give this weeks teaser? Is this teaser the one with the best value? Thank you ACE !!

ACE-ACE · Dec 22, 2004

cole1616 said:
ACE, I believe, last week your POY teaser you gave a value of +46. What value do you give this weeks teaser? Is this teaser the one with the best value? Thank you ACE !!

RATING IS BASE ON "MY LINE"...... THE KC..NYJ...SD....=+51 VALUE....HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK....

ACE

ZMONEY · Dec 22, 2004

Ace, I know your analysis is a lot more in depth than acouple sentences but I was just wondering what makes the Jets/Pats game attractive to you in general? Obviously the NE had a huge letdown but don't you think they will be out for revenge at home?

jzaharat · Dec 22, 2004

ACE-ACE...
Long time reader in the RX but first post/reply. Primarily I a humble student of your teachings.. It's always an education in your posts. I am at least 20 visits on this week's post for the OVER!!!!!!

One thing I picked up on this week's entry.... In your SU list you have the NYG, yet your line is CIN -6 (+5 value over the Bookie's line)... Not sure which one should be changed... Just watching out...
Even though it's an Office Pool ... a win is a win.

You are GOLD ....
Keep 'em coming ACE :103631605