one week at a time is what I do...every week it change how they play...my $6k bet was for the season totals on chi...I took the time
to look at each game they play to come up with under 8 wins this year.
After this week I look at what myline tells me on monday...than on tuesday I break down each game. wed/day I got a good Ideal of what I like in cfb and NFL....than on thursday I number them and put the best 1st and put the money on them...so its hard to do two -three weeks ahead
Ace I saw your win money or lose the bankroll thread last year and never pulled the trigger to tail you. I LOVE this thread...this is the type of reading material that can help any capper being someone with a 100k bankroll or 5k. A lot of this information is priceless and I hope you keep it up through the year. I like to cap the games looking at in game matchups...I was wondering if following the ATS trends does well for you and if that is how you make your final decision on wagers? I can see how it could help you sway your opinion but sometimes I feel like regardless of trends some teams are just not going to cover regardless of the trends. Thanks again for this thread I'm excited to see how this season goes...I'm damn near sold on tailing you so GL to you this weekend sir.
:toast:
:toast:
the ATS trends that I call candy players like to see....its always good when those trends match your picks...............but..............I dont use them at all....let me ask you.......what does two year or even one year ago games have to do with this years and how they are playing now. If you know what team do and they did not change it this year...yes they can help. Look at my Lions...last year they were 6-2...this year they are falling apart again. so how could you use candy to help you with your picks!!!...diff/team......but they are always fun to see.
<TABLE class=formWrapper style="WIDTH: 95%; HEIGHT: 100%"><TBODY><TR><TH class=formHeader vAlign=top><TABLE id=tableHeader width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=defaultFont align=left>General Alert! </TD><TD> </TD><TD class=defaultFont align=right>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TH></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 2px; PADDING-LEFT: 2px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2px; PADDING-TOP: 2px" vAlign=top align=left>Time/Date: 09/28/2008 11:33:49 AM
Circled Game: 427 Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
9/28 Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer has been downgraded to Out with an elbow injury.
line is droping!!!! this is a plus to the under at 44.5...I see a lot of 42.5...get it now if you can still get 44.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TH></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 2px; PADDING-LEFT: 2px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2px; PADDING-TOP: 2px" vAlign=top align=left>Time/Date: 09/28/2008 11:33:49 AM Circled Game: 427 Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
9/28 Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer has been downgraded to Out with an elbow injury.
line is droping!!!! this is a plus to the under at 44.5...I see a lot of 42.5...get it now if you can still get 44.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=formWrapper style="WIDTH: 95%; HEIGHT: 100%"><TBODY><TR><TH class=formHeader vAlign=top><TABLE id=tableHeader width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=defaultFont align=left>General Alert! </TD><TD></TD><TD class=defaultFont align=right>
Circled Game: 427 Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
9/28 Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer has been downgraded to Out with an elbow injury.
line is droping!!!! this is a plus to the under at 44.5...I see a lot of 42.5...get it now if you can still get 44.5
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
FUNNY...CLEVE OVER JUST WHEN UP IN % FOR THE PUBLIC...FROM 75% TO 79%
.........................................................................OV/UN
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e141032 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e141032', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>197 Cleveland Browns
198 Cincinnati Bengals
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>55773
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>53%
47%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>64%
36%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>50%
50%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>79%
21%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
PUBLIC THINK Carson Palmer OUT WILL NOT MAKE A DIFF///////
WINNER$2000.00 Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
Neither one of these offenses is at the level that they had been prior to this year and I see both teams struggling to move the ball. Both of these teams have a lot of "star power" but neither one of them have any of the numbers to back up their hype. These clubs have two of the five lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL and have combined to average just 22 points per game. That's not even half of the total we are playing against! I see lots of turnovers and lots of penalties holding both of these teams back and I expect a close game, as neither team wants to fall to 0-4 and basically see their season end before the end of September.
WINNER $800.00 Take ‘Over’ 42.5 Green Bay at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
These two offenses have combined to average 53 points per game. And after Green Bay was held to just 13 points at home last week I expect them to break out against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has become an 'over' team in spite of their defensive reputation. They have gone 'over' in seven of their last nine games overall and are 6-2 'over' in games against the NFC. Green Bay is 13-3 against the total in conference games and 16-5 against the total in their last 21 overall.
$2000.00 #211 Take Buffalo (-8) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The Rams are a mess and I don't know how they aren't laying double-digits here. The switch to Trent Green is not going to provide any spark and is not going to solve their offensive problems at all. Buffalo already went on the road and beat a very good Jacksonville team. I don't see them slipping up here. The Bills are 38-18 ATS against teams with a losing record and they have large advantages in offense, defense, and special teams. St. Louis has virtually no home field advantage any more as most of the fans have already given up on this team. Look for another blowout loss for the Rams.
$800.00 #215 Take Washington (+11.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The underdog has been the only play in this series, with the team taking the points going 17-4 ATS. Dallas is coming off a big road win and are being crowned as the best team in football. They very well may be, but this is too many points to be giving up in one of the NFL's oldest and most heated rivalries.
$360 TO WIN $300 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+21.5), ‘Under’ 54.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati, and Take Virginia Tech (+17)
EARLY GAMES 2-0 +$2800.00
CFB WAS 3-0
HOPE TO HAVE THAT NO LOST WEEK-END
ACE-ACE
Neither one of these offenses is at the level that they had been prior to this year and I see both teams struggling to move the ball. Both of these teams have a lot of "star power" but neither one of them have any of the numbers to back up their hype. These clubs have two of the five lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL and have combined to average just 22 points per game. That's not even half of the total we are playing against! I see lots of turnovers and lots of penalties holding both of these teams back and I expect a close game, as neither team wants to fall to 0-4 and basically see their season end before the end of September.
WINNER $800.00 Take ‘Over’ 42.5 Green Bay at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
These two offenses have combined to average 53 points per game. And after Green Bay was held to just 13 points at home last week I expect them to break out against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has become an 'over' team in spite of their defensive reputation. They have gone 'over' in seven of their last nine games overall and are 6-2 'over' in games against the NFC. Green Bay is 13-3 against the total in conference games and 16-5 against the total in their last 21 overall.
$2000.00 #211 Take Buffalo (-8) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The Rams are a mess and I don't know how they aren't laying double-digits here. The switch to Trent Green is not going to provide any spark and is not going to solve their offensive problems at all. Buffalo already went on the road and beat a very good Jacksonville team. I don't see them slipping up here. The Bills are 38-18 ATS against teams with a losing record and they have large advantages in offense, defense, and special teams. St. Louis has virtually no home field advantage any more as most of the fans have already given up on this team. Look for another blowout loss for the Rams.
$800.00 #215 Take Washington (+11.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The underdog has been the only play in this series, with the team taking the points going 17-4 ATS. Dallas is coming off a big road win and are being crowned as the best team in football. They very well may be, but this is too many points to be giving up in one of the NFL's oldest and most heated rivalries.
$360 TO WIN $300 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+21.5), ‘Under’ 54.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati, and Take Virginia Tech (+17)
EARLY GAMES 2-0 +$2800.00
CFB WAS 3-0
HOPE TO HAVE THAT NO LOST WEEK-END
ACE-ACE
that info on Palmers status was much appreciated as well as very profitable....thanks for the heads up....<TABLE class=formWrapper style="WIDTH: 95%; HEIGHT: 100%"><TBODY><TR><TH class=formHeader vAlign=top><TABLE id=tableHeader width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=defaultFont align=left>General Alert! </TD><TD></TD><TD class=defaultFont align=right>
Circled Game: 427 Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
9/28 Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer has been downgraded to Out with an elbow injury.
line is droping!!!! this is a plus to the under at 44.5...I see a lot of 42.5...get it now if you can still get 44.5
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
