its starting to come down
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e141029 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e141029', event)"><TD id=score width=50>9/28
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>195 Denver Broncos
196 Kansas City Chiefs
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>8913
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e141056 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e141056', event)"><TD id=score width=50>9/28
4:05P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>213 San Diego Chargers
214 Oakland Raiders
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>7844
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>72%
28%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I don't normally like road favs but there's no way you can bet on KC.
Ther'es a little more reasons IMO to play Oakland but Denver and SD are such explosive offenses facing teams that simply can't score.
I really think SD will be relentless.
Both home dogs defense will have to come up big if they want to cover the number
Ther'es a little more reasons IMO to play Oakland but Denver and SD are such explosive offenses facing teams that simply can't score.
I really think SD will be relentless.
Both home dogs defense will have to come up big if they want to cover the number
I know Nick is talking about CFB...but you also can thinking about it in the NFL world!!
9/25/2008
9/25/2008
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]YOUR "TAX" GOES UP ON HIGHER FOOTBALL SPREADS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've mentioned in the past that the public has to pay a premium when betting on the best teams or the hottest college football teams. Oddsmakers know who they're going to bet. They charge a "tax" on those teams to help offset the risk of being one-sided on a game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What many don't realize is that the higher the pointspread, the higher the tax. There may only be a point or two involved when the spread is around a touchdown. When the spread gets to 14-17, it's more like 2-3 extra points you have to lay. When you get up to 24-28 or so, which is very common in college football with the very best teams, there may be as many as 4-5 points of tax involved. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why is that? Why would "the bigger the spread, the bigger the tax" be the way to go?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Most top teams in the polls win by big margins when things are going well. The public sees those big victory margins every week and assumes they're going to continue. If a team is winning 48-14, or 52-10 in early action, the squares don't mind laying 24-28 points even if the "right" spread should only be 17-20. They figure USC or Oklahoma or whoever is going to keep winning. When those teams win, they win big. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]They also hear from people that those coaches "have to cover" to keep their alumni happy. That's talked about all the time here in Nevada. I don't know if it's true or not. The coaches will never admit it publicly. And, the coach is the only guy who knows whether or not it's true. I can tell you this though, the public believes it's true! And, the public saw Urban Meyer call for a last second field goal for Florida that covered the Miami game a few weeks ago! To the squares, they've got "insurance" because the team might cover for them at the last second even if they don't put the game away early. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here are the teams that oddsmakers are taxing the most right now in college football. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]USC
The Trojans have been a public favorite throughout the Pete Carroll era. Well, they were skeptical of him at first. But, when he started winning, the public got on the bandwagon quick. I've told you before that Las Vegas might as well be the home city of Southern Cal the way the money comes in. Locals bet them like they're the hometown team. Squares of all types bet them because they're a national power. Sportsbooks always have to charge a premium in USC games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's funny. The first year USC got hot, they just kept covering all the spreads no matter how big they got. Oddsmakers would lift the number...the public would keep betting...and USC would win by bigger and bigger margins. That calmed down late in the Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush era though. And, the Trojans have had trouble living up to pointspread expectations consistently since then. They'll still win by some big margins. But they stub their toe more often than the public realizes. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think there's about 3-4 points of tax in the Thursday Night spread this week. USC is better than Oregon State. Are they that much better? What would the spread have been before the season started? The Trojans may still cover the spread Thursday. The players will be hard-pressed to keep doing that week after week this year in my view. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
GEORGIA
Man, the money has come flooding in on Georgia this year. The media has been all over them as one of the best teams in the country. Then, for two straight weeks the Bulldogs were touchdown favorites in national TV games. The public LOVES betting big name teams at single digit spreads...so the squares lines up to take Georgia. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The first game at South Carolina was a push, and could have been a loss. The second game at Arizona State was a rout though. The public won big in that game. This week Georgia is once again a touchdown favorite as they play Alabama. And, it looks like the public will be all over them again this weekend based on the money I've already seen coming in. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Georgia isn't really a "traditional" public team from recent years. Squares have been betting USC for a long time. Georgia has become the "next big thing" in college football, so the public is betting them like they've already won the championship. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma is a lot like USC in that they've been winning for years...and, when they win, they often put up big totals. The public loves betting on teams that score into the 50's and 60's several teams a season. They just look unbeatable on the highlight shows. Note that Oklahoma hasn't been in a big TV game yet this year. They're highlights are all over the place though, so they seem like a TV team to the public. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]And, like USC, Oklahoma has had trouble running the table in recent years. They have a game or two each season where they lose their focus and risk an upset. There are others where they're not as sharp as they should be, and can't get the money as a 25-30-point favorite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The tax will be high on Oklahoma again this year until they play a bad game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
FLORIDA
I already mentioned that field goal at the end of the Miami game. That was all the public needed to see to stay on this bandwagon even though the Gators didn't look very good. They found a way to win and cover. As long as the squares get paid every so often on a team like this, they keep on betting them. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You know, Florida had a few games last year where they didn't play very well. They were a 3-loss team and barely got by Michigan in the bowl. But, winning a national championship two seasons ago was enough to cement them in the mind of the public as championship material. USC hasn't won in awhile, yet they're still commonly accepted as a championship contender before every season. Florida looks like they'll be in the same boat for the foreseeable future. When was the last time Oklahoma won a championship? The public has a long memory![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
TEXAS
Even though the Horns haven't been in the top five for awhile, they're still bet very heavily by the public. A lot of Texas money "finds" its way to Las Vegas if you know what I mean. And, we're talking about another team that wins by big scores when things are going well. You saw that this year against Florida Atlantic, UTEP, and Rice. This week's line against Arkansas is four touchdowns. It might have been half that before the season started, or even lower. The Hogs have started poorly. Texas is winning big. So far![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Most of you reading this already know to avoid betting on public teams unless there are specific handicapping fundamentals that tell you a blowout is at hand. And, even then, it's tough to make the case that overcoming the tax is +EV. What I want to emphasize today is that the tax goes up when the spread goes up. If you're going to bet teams like this, look for the more competitive games with the smaller spreads. It's easier to clear a 1-2 point tax than a 4-5 point tax. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think about it this way:[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]YOUR "TAX" GOES UP ON HIGHER FOOTBALL SPREADS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've mentioned in the past that the public has to pay a premium when betting on the best teams or the hottest college football teams. Oddsmakers know who they're going to bet. They charge a "tax" on those teams to help offset the risk of being one-sided on a game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What many don't realize is that the higher the pointspread, the higher the tax. There may only be a point or two involved when the spread is around a touchdown. When the spread gets to 14-17, it's more like 2-3 extra points you have to lay. When you get up to 24-28 or so, which is very common in college football with the very best teams, there may be as many as 4-5 points of tax involved. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why is that? Why would "the bigger the spread, the bigger the tax" be the way to go?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Most top teams in the polls win by big margins when things are going well. The public sees those big victory margins every week and assumes they're going to continue. If a team is winning 48-14, or 52-10 in early action, the squares don't mind laying 24-28 points even if the "right" spread should only be 17-20. They figure USC or Oklahoma or whoever is going to keep winning. When those teams win, they win big. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]They also hear from people that those coaches "have to cover" to keep their alumni happy. That's talked about all the time here in Nevada. I don't know if it's true or not. The coaches will never admit it publicly. And, the coach is the only guy who knows whether or not it's true. I can tell you this though, the public believes it's true! And, the public saw Urban Meyer call for a last second field goal for Florida that covered the Miami game a few weeks ago! To the squares, they've got "insurance" because the team might cover for them at the last second even if they don't put the game away early. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here are the teams that oddsmakers are taxing the most right now in college football. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]USC
The Trojans have been a public favorite throughout the Pete Carroll era. Well, they were skeptical of him at first. But, when he started winning, the public got on the bandwagon quick. I've told you before that Las Vegas might as well be the home city of Southern Cal the way the money comes in. Locals bet them like they're the hometown team. Squares of all types bet them because they're a national power. Sportsbooks always have to charge a premium in USC games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's funny. The first year USC got hot, they just kept covering all the spreads no matter how big they got. Oddsmakers would lift the number...the public would keep betting...and USC would win by bigger and bigger margins. That calmed down late in the Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush era though. And, the Trojans have had trouble living up to pointspread expectations consistently since then. They'll still win by some big margins. But they stub their toe more often than the public realizes. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think there's about 3-4 points of tax in the Thursday Night spread this week. USC is better than Oregon State. Are they that much better? What would the spread have been before the season started? The Trojans may still cover the spread Thursday. The players will be hard-pressed to keep doing that week after week this year in my view. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
GEORGIA
Man, the money has come flooding in on Georgia this year. The media has been all over them as one of the best teams in the country. Then, for two straight weeks the Bulldogs were touchdown favorites in national TV games. The public LOVES betting big name teams at single digit spreads...so the squares lines up to take Georgia. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The first game at South Carolina was a push, and could have been a loss. The second game at Arizona State was a rout though. The public won big in that game. This week Georgia is once again a touchdown favorite as they play Alabama. And, it looks like the public will be all over them again this weekend based on the money I've already seen coming in. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Georgia isn't really a "traditional" public team from recent years. Squares have been betting USC for a long time. Georgia has become the "next big thing" in college football, so the public is betting them like they've already won the championship. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma is a lot like USC in that they've been winning for years...and, when they win, they often put up big totals. The public loves betting on teams that score into the 50's and 60's several teams a season. They just look unbeatable on the highlight shows. Note that Oklahoma hasn't been in a big TV game yet this year. They're highlights are all over the place though, so they seem like a TV team to the public. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]And, like USC, Oklahoma has had trouble running the table in recent years. They have a game or two each season where they lose their focus and risk an upset. There are others where they're not as sharp as they should be, and can't get the money as a 25-30-point favorite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The tax will be high on Oklahoma again this year until they play a bad game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
FLORIDA
I already mentioned that field goal at the end of the Miami game. That was all the public needed to see to stay on this bandwagon even though the Gators didn't look very good. They found a way to win and cover. As long as the squares get paid every so often on a team like this, they keep on betting them. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You know, Florida had a few games last year where they didn't play very well. They were a 3-loss team and barely got by Michigan in the bowl. But, winning a national championship two seasons ago was enough to cement them in the mind of the public as championship material. USC hasn't won in awhile, yet they're still commonly accepted as a championship contender before every season. Florida looks like they'll be in the same boat for the foreseeable future. When was the last time Oklahoma won a championship? The public has a long memory![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
TEXAS
Even though the Horns haven't been in the top five for awhile, they're still bet very heavily by the public. A lot of Texas money "finds" its way to Las Vegas if you know what I mean. And, we're talking about another team that wins by big scores when things are going well. You saw that this year against Florida Atlantic, UTEP, and Rice. This week's line against Arkansas is four touchdowns. It might have been half that before the season started, or even lower. The Hogs have started poorly. Texas is winning big. So far![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Most of you reading this already know to avoid betting on public teams unless there are specific handicapping fundamentals that tell you a blowout is at hand. And, even then, it's tough to make the case that overcoming the tax is +EV. What I want to emphasize today is that the tax goes up when the spread goes up. If you're going to bet teams like this, look for the more competitive games with the smaller spreads. It's easier to clear a 1-2 point tax than a 4-5 point tax. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think about it this way:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Georgia pushed and won against a small tax (1-0-1 ATS)[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Georgia would have been 2-0 ATS with no tax[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Georgia would have been 1-1 ATS with a bigger tax[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The existence of the tax turned a win into a push. The fact that it was a smaller tax at the smaller price actually turned a potential loss into a push. It's less dangerous to play the big name teams at these smaller numbers. I wouldn't recommend at all laying big numbers with these teams. Sure, they'll win some games by 40 points. But, if there are 20 games this year with the teams above laying double digit spreads, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 9-11 ATS or worse against those expectations. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Assume 20-0 or 19-1 straight up against double digit spreads (you'd be surprised how often teams that pricey lose outright late in the season, as Ohio State did to Illinois last year, and West Virginia to Pittsburgh). I don't think you should expect 12-8 or 13-7 against the number. The hurdles are just too high. Sharps put the tax in their favor by taking the dogs and just accepting that they'll lose some ugly blowouts here and there. If you go 4-3 every seven games, it doesn't matter how ugly those losses were. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Assume 20-0 or 19-1 straight up against double digit spreads (you'd be surprised how often teams that pricey lose outright late in the season, as Ohio State did to Illinois last year, and West Virginia to Pittsburgh). I don't think you should expect 12-8 or 13-7 against the number. The hurdles are just too high. Sharps put the tax in their favor by taking the dogs and just accepting that they'll lose some ugly blowouts here and there. If you go 4-3 every seven games, it doesn't matter how ugly those losses were. [/FONT]
no steam move in the last two days
<TABLE class=MasterTable_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00 style="TABLE-LAYOUT: auto; WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; empty-cells: show" cellSpacing=0 border=0><THEAD><TR><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="AlertType">Alert Type</TH><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="Date">Date</TH><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="Detail">Description</TH><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="name">Trigger</TH></TR></THEAD><TFOOT><TR class=GridPager_Sunset><TD colSpan=4>
</TD></TR></TFOOT><TBODY><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__0 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/25 12:10 P</TD><TD>(199) 9/28 Play on Houston Texans (9-110)</TD><TD>CRIS (14-16,-3.42)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__1><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/25 7:31 A</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (7.5-110)</TD><TD>TradeSports (5-6,-1.00)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__2 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 11:36 P</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (7.5-105)</TD><TD>Carib Sports (7-8,-1.70)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__3 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 7:45 P</TD><TD>(219) 9/29 Play on Baltimore Ravens (6.5-110)</TD><TD>5Dimes (7-6,+0.24)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__4 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 4:22 P</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (7.5-105)</TD><TD>Sportsbook.com (3-5,-2.25)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__5><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 2:23 P</TD><TD>(211) 9/28 Play on OU Under St. Louis Rams (42u-105)</TD><TD>ABC (1-2,-1.10)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__6 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 12:26 P</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (7.5-105)</TD><TD>Olympic (3-4,-1.15)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__7><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 9:44 A</TD><TD>(211) 9/28 Play on St. Louis Rams (9-110)</TD><TD>Bet Jamaica (5-8,-3.57)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__8 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 9:01 A</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (9.5-110)</TD><TD>CRIS (14-16,-3.42)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=MasterTable_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00 style="TABLE-LAYOUT: auto; WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; empty-cells: show" cellSpacing=0 border=0><THEAD><TR><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="AlertType">Alert Type</TH><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="Date">Date</TH><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="Detail">Description</TH><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="name">Trigger</TH></TR></THEAD><TFOOT><TR class=GridPager_Sunset><TD colSpan=4>
</TD></TR></TFOOT><TBODY><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__0 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/25 12:10 P</TD><TD>(199) 9/28 Play on Houston Texans (9-110)</TD><TD>CRIS (14-16,-3.42)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__1><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/25 7:31 A</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (7.5-110)</TD><TD>TradeSports (5-6,-1.00)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__2 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 11:36 P</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (7.5-105)</TD><TD>Carib Sports (7-8,-1.70)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__3 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 7:45 P</TD><TD>(219) 9/29 Play on Baltimore Ravens (6.5-110)</TD><TD>5Dimes (7-6,+0.24)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__4 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 4:22 P</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (7.5-105)</TD><TD>Sportsbook.com (3-5,-2.25)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__5><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 2:23 P</TD><TD>(211) 9/28 Play on OU Under St. Louis Rams (42u-105)</TD><TD>ABC (1-2,-1.10)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__6 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 12:26 P</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (7.5-105)</TD><TD>Olympic (3-4,-1.15)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__7><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 9:44 A</TD><TD>(211) 9/28 Play on St. Louis Rams (9-110)</TD><TD>Bet Jamaica (5-8,-3.57)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__8 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/24 9:01 A</TD><TD>(213) 9/28 Play on Oakland Raiders (9.5-110)</TD><TD>CRIS (14-16,-3.42)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Denver at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Denver: 6-17 ATS as favorite
Kansas City: 20-8 ATS off road loss by 14+ points
Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 8-0 ATS off road game
Cincinnati: 0-4 ATS off loss by 6 points or less
Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 7-0 Over vs. division
Jacksonville: 9-2 Over off a win
Arizona at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 10-4 Over as road underdog
NY Jets: 11-2 ATS after playing on Monday night
San Francisco at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 10-23 ATS Away off win by 14+ points
New Orleans: 11-3 Over vs. conference opponents
Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 13-4 Under in road games
Carolina: 6-0 Under at home vs. division
Minnesota at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 5-1 Under as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Tennessee: 6-0 ATS in September
Green Bay at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-0 ATS Away off ATS loss
Tampa Bay: 0-7 ATS at home off Away game where both teams scored 24+ points
Buffalo at St. Louis, 4:05 ET
Buffalo: 26-8 ATS off win by 3 points or less
St. Louis: 0-7 ATS in September
San Diego at Oakland, 4:05 ET
San Diego: 8-1 ATS off BB ATS wins
Oakland: 0-7 ATS as home dog of 7 points or less
Washington at Dallas, 4:15 ET
Washington: 46-68 ATS vs. division
Dallas: 9-1 Over off DD win
Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:15 ET NBC
Philadelphia: 26-12 ATS off NFC North
Chicago: 20-7 Over vs. conference
Monday, September 29th
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 0-8 ATS in road games
Pittsburgh: 21-9 ATS at home off non-conf game
Trends Sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, September 28
1:00 PM ARIZONA vs. NY JETS
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games
NY Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
1:00 PM ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 6-13-4 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Atlanta
1:00 PM CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
1:00 PM DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
1:00 PM GREEN BAY vs. TAMPA BAY
Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Green Bay is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
1:00 PM HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
1:00 PM MINNESOTA vs. TENNESSEE
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
1:00 PM SAN FRANCISCO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Francisco is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
4:05 PM BUFFALO vs. ST. LOUIS
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
4:05 PM SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
4:15 PM WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Dallas is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
8:15 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
Philadelphia is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Monday, September 29
8:30 PM BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Week 4 NFL games
Sunday, September 28
Broncos (3-0) @ Chiefs (0-3)-- Major trap game for Denver squad that scored 38 ppg in winning first three games, scoring 13 TDs on 20 drives. Chiefs started three different QBs in first three weeks, lost all three by 7-15-24 points, allowing 204 rushing yards/game. Broncos are 8-4 in the last dozen series games, but lost seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Denver led last two games 21-3, had to hang on for dear life to win, but that was against tougher competition than this. Chiefs have four TDs on 34 drives with 14 three/outs, are -9 in sacks.
Browns (0-3) @ Bengals (0-3)-- Desperate times in Ohio; loser here falls to 0-4. Bengals showed life in OT loss at Swamp last week, converting 10-17 on third down, but they had only one TD in four trips to Giants' red zone, and have just one sack, no INTs in three games. Browns have two TDs on 28 drives. may be thinking about switching QB- they lost six of last seven in series, losing last four visits here by 10-3-17-5 pts. Only three of last 18 series games were won by less than seven points. Neither team stops run well; Browns allow 145 yds/game, Bengals 174.
Texans (0-2) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Life still isn't back to normal in Houston area (most stoplights were still out, as of Wednesday); Texans have to be distracted, have allowed 69 points in losing first two games (gave up eight TDs on 22 drives) and are mulling QB change to Rosenfels, after Schaub (42-70, 330 passing, 4.2/4.3 ypa) was banged up last week by the Titans. Jaguars averaged 7.6 ypa in win at Indy last week, after they averaged 3.7/4.8 in first two games- they also ran ball for 236 yards with an OL that was missing two starters. In six visits here, Texans have gone WLWLWL-- home side won seven of last ten series games.
Cardinals (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)-- Arizona stayed on east coast after loss in Washington; Jets flew home cross-country early Tuesday morning, after hideous loss in San Diego, when they ran ball just 13 times, dropping to pass 50 times. Favre is prone to turnovers, but Arizona hasn't forced a turnover in last two games, after getting five in the opener. Arizona has four TD drives of 80+ yards in last two games; if Chargers can average 10 yards/pass attempt vs Jets, Arizona should do damage as well, with Fitzgerald/Boldin running amok. Jets getting killed in field position; they started eight more drives 80+ yards from end zone than their foes have.
49ers (2-1) @ Saints (1-2)-- Disappointing 0-2 road swing for Saint club that scored 56 points in two games but couldn't finish either game- they allow 133 rushing yards/game. 49ers scored 64 points in winning its last two games, as O'Sullivan becomes latest signal caller to thrive under the tutelage of QB guru Martz. Niners lost five of last six visits to Big Easy, with four of five losses by 8+ points. Saints won seven of last nine in a series that used to be divisional rivalry, winning last four by 8-3-24-21 points. Nine of last 11 series totals were 41+. Niners had good balance last week, running ball for 182 yards, passing for 188.
Falcons (2-1) @ Panthers (2-1)-- Home side won all three Atlanta tilts, with Ryan averaging 11.1/10.7 yds/pass attempt in his two home wins, but only 3.5 in his road debut at Tampa. Falcons ran ball for 318-186 in their wins, scoring eight TDs on 19 drives, but didn't score TD vs Bucs, running ball for 105 yards. Carolina went 3/out on 11 of last 22 drives, with just two TDs- they allowed 105-115-119 yards in three games so far in '08. Home side lost last five Falcon-Panther games, with Atlanta
6-2 in last eight visits here- they won last two visits here, 20-6/20-13. Six of last seven series totals at this site were 33 or less.
Vikings (1-2) @ Titans (3-0)-- Minnesota passing game improved to 6.0 ypa with Frerotte under center, after averaging 4.7/4.4 in Jackson's two starts; they're still weak in red zone, with one TD, six FG tries in eight visit inside opponents' 20-yard line, but that could be attributed to the absence of OT McKinnie (this is last game of his four-game suspension). Titans allowed just 29 points in three games (forced 15 three/outs, gave up three TDs on 35 drives)- they've run ball for 154.5 ypg. Minnesota won its only previous visit here, ten years ago- they won last four games in this seldom-played series by 6-10-18-17 points.
Packers (2-1) @ Buccaneers (2-1)-- Brian Greise turned into Dan Fouts last week, going 38-67/407, rallying Bucs from down 23-13 in last 4:40, and winning game in OT. Bucs held Atlanta to 234 yards in 24-9 win in Week 2, its only home game, vs QB making his first road start- Rodgers is making his second start on foreign soil. After running ball for 310 yds in first two games, they were just 17-47 on road last week, as Chicago committed to stopping run. Home team won ten of last twelve in series, which used to be division rivalry. Packers lost five of last six visits to this site. Six of last sever series totals were 35 or less.
3-month old son of Bucs' kicker Bryant passed away during the week, so Bucs will play this game with heavy hearts.
Bills (3-0) @ Rams (0-3)-- 38-year old Green starts at QB for a woeful St Louis club that was outscored 116-29 in first three games; if OL does not protect better than they've been doing, Green will never last a whole game, since he has concussion issues. Rams were outgained 445-133 on ground in last two games, so huge trap game for 3-0 Bills, who struggled at home vs Raiders last week, rallying at end for 24-23 win- their wins last two weeks are by combined total of five points. Rams once fired the Bills' special teams coach April, generally considered the best at his job in NFL. Game not expected to sell out; natives are very restless.
Chargers (1-2) @ Raiders (1-2)-- San Diego won last nine series games, with five of last six wins by 13+ points; they won last four visits here by 6-13-27-13 points. Oakland soap opera swirls around coach Kiffin, but Raiders are improved, scoring 23 points in each of last two games- last week's loss was bitter- they led almost whole way. Oakland had one TD on four trips inside red zone last week, bad news in a one-point loss. Chargers averaged 11.1/10.0 ypa in last two games- they've run ball for just 97.3 ypg so far. Six of last eight series totals were 40+; all three San Diego games this season went over the total.
Redskins (2-1) @ Cowboys (3-0)-- Home side won six of last seven in this intense rivalry, with Redskins 2-14 in last 16 visits here, losing last two visits here 27-10/28-23. Dallas is off pair of primetime games; they were held to 6.9 ypp last week, after averaging 10.0/10.4 in first couple games. Redskins are already +5 in turnovers, but allowed couple of 80+-yard TD drives to Cardinals last week. Double-digit favorites are 0-4 vs spread in NFL this season. Cowboys are 21-35 on third down, Skins are just 11-35, but Cowboys have yet to pick off pass thus year. Difficult to give double digits in rivalry game to capable underdog.
Eagles (2-1) @ Bears (1-2)-- Homecoming for McNabb; Bears lost last two games, both by FG-- they led 17-3 at Carolina, led Bucs 24-14 with 4:40 left, but lost both. Eagles won five of last six series games, winning last four visits here. Johnson's blitzed pummeled Big Ben last week, as they sacked Steeler QBs nine times (Pitt averaged just 3.6 ypa). Hard to imagine Orton thriving vs Johnson's blitzes after he coughed up INT/TD last week vs Bucs. Bears ran ball for 183-115-158 yards so far, but the Eagles allowed just 36-68-33 rushing yards so far. After road loss to the Cowboys, Philly needs road win to justify contender status in NFC.
Monday, Sepember 29
Ravens (2-0) @ Steelers (2-1)-- First NFL road game for rookie Flacco is in incredibly tough spot, on Monday night vs a wounded division rival (plus, Flacco transferred to Delaware from Pitt). Ravens lost six of last seven visits to this site, but won four of last five overall in series-- they ran ball for 380 yards in first two games, allowing only one TD so far on 24 drives, with 14 three/outs, but the road hasn't always been as kind to Ravens. Steelers better work on blitz pickup; Roethlisberger was sacked nine times last week, and hit lot more than that. Wouldn't be confident in Steeler chances here if Leftwich had to play instead of Big Ben.
Denver: 6-17 ATS as favorite
Kansas City: 20-8 ATS off road loss by 14+ points
Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 8-0 ATS off road game
Cincinnati: 0-4 ATS off loss by 6 points or less
Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 7-0 Over vs. division
Jacksonville: 9-2 Over off a win
Arizona at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 10-4 Over as road underdog
NY Jets: 11-2 ATS after playing on Monday night
San Francisco at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 10-23 ATS Away off win by 14+ points
New Orleans: 11-3 Over vs. conference opponents
Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 13-4 Under in road games
Carolina: 6-0 Under at home vs. division
Minnesota at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 5-1 Under as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Tennessee: 6-0 ATS in September
Green Bay at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-0 ATS Away off ATS loss
Tampa Bay: 0-7 ATS at home off Away game where both teams scored 24+ points
Buffalo at St. Louis, 4:05 ET
Buffalo: 26-8 ATS off win by 3 points or less
St. Louis: 0-7 ATS in September
San Diego at Oakland, 4:05 ET
San Diego: 8-1 ATS off BB ATS wins
Oakland: 0-7 ATS as home dog of 7 points or less
Washington at Dallas, 4:15 ET
Washington: 46-68 ATS vs. division
Dallas: 9-1 Over off DD win
Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:15 ET NBC
Philadelphia: 26-12 ATS off NFC North
Chicago: 20-7 Over vs. conference
Monday, September 29th
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 0-8 ATS in road games
Pittsburgh: 21-9 ATS at home off non-conf game
Trends Sheet
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Sunday, September 28
1:00 PM ARIZONA vs. NY JETS
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games
NY Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
1:00 PM ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 6-13-4 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Atlanta
1:00 PM CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
1:00 PM DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
1:00 PM GREEN BAY vs. TAMPA BAY
Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Green Bay is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
1:00 PM HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
1:00 PM MINNESOTA vs. TENNESSEE
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
1:00 PM SAN FRANCISCO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Francisco is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
4:05 PM BUFFALO vs. ST. LOUIS
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
4:05 PM SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
4:15 PM WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Dallas is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
8:15 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
Philadelphia is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Monday, September 29
8:30 PM BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Week 4 NFL games
Sunday, September 28
Broncos (3-0) @ Chiefs (0-3)-- Major trap game for Denver squad that scored 38 ppg in winning first three games, scoring 13 TDs on 20 drives. Chiefs started three different QBs in first three weeks, lost all three by 7-15-24 points, allowing 204 rushing yards/game. Broncos are 8-4 in the last dozen series games, but lost seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Denver led last two games 21-3, had to hang on for dear life to win, but that was against tougher competition than this. Chiefs have four TDs on 34 drives with 14 three/outs, are -9 in sacks.
Browns (0-3) @ Bengals (0-3)-- Desperate times in Ohio; loser here falls to 0-4. Bengals showed life in OT loss at Swamp last week, converting 10-17 on third down, but they had only one TD in four trips to Giants' red zone, and have just one sack, no INTs in three games. Browns have two TDs on 28 drives. may be thinking about switching QB- they lost six of last seven in series, losing last four visits here by 10-3-17-5 pts. Only three of last 18 series games were won by less than seven points. Neither team stops run well; Browns allow 145 yds/game, Bengals 174.
Texans (0-2) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Life still isn't back to normal in Houston area (most stoplights were still out, as of Wednesday); Texans have to be distracted, have allowed 69 points in losing first two games (gave up eight TDs on 22 drives) and are mulling QB change to Rosenfels, after Schaub (42-70, 330 passing, 4.2/4.3 ypa) was banged up last week by the Titans. Jaguars averaged 7.6 ypa in win at Indy last week, after they averaged 3.7/4.8 in first two games- they also ran ball for 236 yards with an OL that was missing two starters. In six visits here, Texans have gone WLWLWL-- home side won seven of last ten series games.
Cardinals (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)-- Arizona stayed on east coast after loss in Washington; Jets flew home cross-country early Tuesday morning, after hideous loss in San Diego, when they ran ball just 13 times, dropping to pass 50 times. Favre is prone to turnovers, but Arizona hasn't forced a turnover in last two games, after getting five in the opener. Arizona has four TD drives of 80+ yards in last two games; if Chargers can average 10 yards/pass attempt vs Jets, Arizona should do damage as well, with Fitzgerald/Boldin running amok. Jets getting killed in field position; they started eight more drives 80+ yards from end zone than their foes have.
49ers (2-1) @ Saints (1-2)-- Disappointing 0-2 road swing for Saint club that scored 56 points in two games but couldn't finish either game- they allow 133 rushing yards/game. 49ers scored 64 points in winning its last two games, as O'Sullivan becomes latest signal caller to thrive under the tutelage of QB guru Martz. Niners lost five of last six visits to Big Easy, with four of five losses by 8+ points. Saints won seven of last nine in a series that used to be divisional rivalry, winning last four by 8-3-24-21 points. Nine of last 11 series totals were 41+. Niners had good balance last week, running ball for 182 yards, passing for 188.
Falcons (2-1) @ Panthers (2-1)-- Home side won all three Atlanta tilts, with Ryan averaging 11.1/10.7 yds/pass attempt in his two home wins, but only 3.5 in his road debut at Tampa. Falcons ran ball for 318-186 in their wins, scoring eight TDs on 19 drives, but didn't score TD vs Bucs, running ball for 105 yards. Carolina went 3/out on 11 of last 22 drives, with just two TDs- they allowed 105-115-119 yards in three games so far in '08. Home side lost last five Falcon-Panther games, with Atlanta
6-2 in last eight visits here- they won last two visits here, 20-6/20-13. Six of last seven series totals at this site were 33 or less.
Vikings (1-2) @ Titans (3-0)-- Minnesota passing game improved to 6.0 ypa with Frerotte under center, after averaging 4.7/4.4 in Jackson's two starts; they're still weak in red zone, with one TD, six FG tries in eight visit inside opponents' 20-yard line, but that could be attributed to the absence of OT McKinnie (this is last game of his four-game suspension). Titans allowed just 29 points in three games (forced 15 three/outs, gave up three TDs on 35 drives)- they've run ball for 154.5 ypg. Minnesota won its only previous visit here, ten years ago- they won last four games in this seldom-played series by 6-10-18-17 points.
Packers (2-1) @ Buccaneers (2-1)-- Brian Greise turned into Dan Fouts last week, going 38-67/407, rallying Bucs from down 23-13 in last 4:40, and winning game in OT. Bucs held Atlanta to 234 yards in 24-9 win in Week 2, its only home game, vs QB making his first road start- Rodgers is making his second start on foreign soil. After running ball for 310 yds in first two games, they were just 17-47 on road last week, as Chicago committed to stopping run. Home team won ten of last twelve in series, which used to be division rivalry. Packers lost five of last six visits to this site. Six of last sever series totals were 35 or less.
3-month old son of Bucs' kicker Bryant passed away during the week, so Bucs will play this game with heavy hearts.
Bills (3-0) @ Rams (0-3)-- 38-year old Green starts at QB for a woeful St Louis club that was outscored 116-29 in first three games; if OL does not protect better than they've been doing, Green will never last a whole game, since he has concussion issues. Rams were outgained 445-133 on ground in last two games, so huge trap game for 3-0 Bills, who struggled at home vs Raiders last week, rallying at end for 24-23 win- their wins last two weeks are by combined total of five points. Rams once fired the Bills' special teams coach April, generally considered the best at his job in NFL. Game not expected to sell out; natives are very restless.
Chargers (1-2) @ Raiders (1-2)-- San Diego won last nine series games, with five of last six wins by 13+ points; they won last four visits here by 6-13-27-13 points. Oakland soap opera swirls around coach Kiffin, but Raiders are improved, scoring 23 points in each of last two games- last week's loss was bitter- they led almost whole way. Oakland had one TD on four trips inside red zone last week, bad news in a one-point loss. Chargers averaged 11.1/10.0 ypa in last two games- they've run ball for just 97.3 ypg so far. Six of last eight series totals were 40+; all three San Diego games this season went over the total.
Redskins (2-1) @ Cowboys (3-0)-- Home side won six of last seven in this intense rivalry, with Redskins 2-14 in last 16 visits here, losing last two visits here 27-10/28-23. Dallas is off pair of primetime games; they were held to 6.9 ypp last week, after averaging 10.0/10.4 in first couple games. Redskins are already +5 in turnovers, but allowed couple of 80+-yard TD drives to Cardinals last week. Double-digit favorites are 0-4 vs spread in NFL this season. Cowboys are 21-35 on third down, Skins are just 11-35, but Cowboys have yet to pick off pass thus year. Difficult to give double digits in rivalry game to capable underdog.
Eagles (2-1) @ Bears (1-2)-- Homecoming for McNabb; Bears lost last two games, both by FG-- they led 17-3 at Carolina, led Bucs 24-14 with 4:40 left, but lost both. Eagles won five of last six series games, winning last four visits here. Johnson's blitzed pummeled Big Ben last week, as they sacked Steeler QBs nine times (Pitt averaged just 3.6 ypa). Hard to imagine Orton thriving vs Johnson's blitzes after he coughed up INT/TD last week vs Bucs. Bears ran ball for 183-115-158 yards so far, but the Eagles allowed just 36-68-33 rushing yards so far. After road loss to the Cowboys, Philly needs road win to justify contender status in NFC.
Monday, Sepember 29
Ravens (2-0) @ Steelers (2-1)-- First NFL road game for rookie Flacco is in incredibly tough spot, on Monday night vs a wounded division rival (plus, Flacco transferred to Delaware from Pitt). Ravens lost six of last seven visits to this site, but won four of last five overall in series-- they ran ball for 380 yards in first two games, allowing only one TD so far on 24 drives, with 14 three/outs, but the road hasn't always been as kind to Ravens. Steelers better work on blitz pickup; Roethlisberger was sacked nine times last week, and hit lot more than that. Wouldn't be confident in Steeler chances here if Leftwich had to play instead of Big Ben.
for those that want to see them
CFB picks http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=5792370#post5792370
nfl will be up in 45 min's:toast:AA
CFB picks http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=5792370#post5792370
nfl will be up in 45 min's:toast:AA
$2000.00 Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
Neither one of these offenses is at the level that they had been prior to this year and I see both teams struggling to move the ball. Both of these teams have a lot of "star power" but neither one of them have any of the numbers to back up their hype. These clubs have two of the five lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL and have combined to average just 22 points per game. That's not even half of the total we are playing against! I see lots of turnovers and lots of penalties holding both of these teams back and I expect a close game, as neither team wants to fall to 0-4 and basically see their season end before the end of September.
$800.00 Take ‘Over’ 42.5 Green Bay at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
These two offenses have combined to average 53 points per game. And after Green Bay was held to just 13 points at home last week I expect them to break out against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has become an 'over' team in spite of their defensive reputation. They have gone 'over' in seven of their last nine games overall and are 6-2 'over' in games against the NFC. Green Bay is 13-3 against the total in conference games and 16-5 against the total in their last 21 overall.
$2000.00 #211 Take Buffalo (-8) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The Rams are a mess and I don't know how they aren't laying double-digits here. The switch to Trent Green is not going to provide any spark and is not going to solve their offensive problems at all. Buffalo already went on the road and beat a very good Jacksonville team. I don't see them slipping up here. The Bills are 38-18 ATS against teams with a losing record and they have large advantages in offense, defense, and special teams. St. Louis has virtually no home field advantage any more as most of the fans have already given up on this team. Look for another blowout loss for the Rams.
$800.00 #215 Take Washington (+11.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The underdog has been the only play in this series, with the team taking the points going 17-4 ATS. Dallas is coming off a big road win and are being crowned as the best team in football. They very well may be, but this is too many points to be giving up in one of the NFL's oldest and most heated rivalries.
$360 TO WIN $300 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+21.5), ‘Under’ 54.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati, and Take Virginia Tech (+17)
TEASER AND WASH GAME WAS BET ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE INVESTMENT PLAY....BUT THAT PLAY WILL BE POSTED THE DAY OF!!
BEST TO ALL
ACE-ACE
Neither one of these offenses is at the level that they had been prior to this year and I see both teams struggling to move the ball. Both of these teams have a lot of "star power" but neither one of them have any of the numbers to back up their hype. These clubs have two of the five lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL and have combined to average just 22 points per game. That's not even half of the total we are playing against! I see lots of turnovers and lots of penalties holding both of these teams back and I expect a close game, as neither team wants to fall to 0-4 and basically see their season end before the end of September.
$800.00 Take ‘Over’ 42.5 Green Bay at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
These two offenses have combined to average 53 points per game. And after Green Bay was held to just 13 points at home last week I expect them to break out against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has become an 'over' team in spite of their defensive reputation. They have gone 'over' in seven of their last nine games overall and are 6-2 'over' in games against the NFC. Green Bay is 13-3 against the total in conference games and 16-5 against the total in their last 21 overall.
$2000.00 #211 Take Buffalo (-8) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The Rams are a mess and I don't know how they aren't laying double-digits here. The switch to Trent Green is not going to provide any spark and is not going to solve their offensive problems at all. Buffalo already went on the road and beat a very good Jacksonville team. I don't see them slipping up here. The Bills are 38-18 ATS against teams with a losing record and they have large advantages in offense, defense, and special teams. St. Louis has virtually no home field advantage any more as most of the fans have already given up on this team. Look for another blowout loss for the Rams.
$800.00 #215 Take Washington (+11.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)
The underdog has been the only play in this series, with the team taking the points going 17-4 ATS. Dallas is coming off a big road win and are being crowned as the best team in football. They very well may be, but this is too many points to be giving up in one of the NFL's oldest and most heated rivalries.
$360 TO WIN $300 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+21.5), ‘Under’ 54.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati, and Take Virginia Tech (+17)
TEASER AND WASH GAME WAS BET ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE INVESTMENT PLAY....BUT THAT PLAY WILL BE POSTED THE DAY OF!!
BEST TO ALL
ACE-ACE
let's talk about Cleve vs Cinn Under game....
The public likes this game over...at ssi Its 72% public on the over!!
CINN LAST 3 GAMES
10-17 40.5 UNDER
20-17 37.5 UNDER
10-23 37 UNDER
LINEOFF FOR THE "TOTALS" IS -10 FOR CINN
CLEVE LAST 3 GAMES
10-28 48 UNDER
6-10 43 UNDER
10-28 37.5 OVER BY 1/2 POINTS
LINEOFF IS -37 FOR CLEVE!!!
BOOKS HAVE AVG THE NUMBER ON CINN 39.5
CLEVE THEY AVG THE NUMBERS 42.5
THEY MADE THIS GAME 44.5 HIGHER THAN THE AVG
DONT GET IT!!
LOOK AT THIS
TOTAL AVG YARDS
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD colSpan=17>NFL Total Offense - Total Yards/Game</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD>Team</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>Plys</TD><TD>Yds/G</TD><TD>Y/P</TD><TD>FD/G</TD><TD>3rd Md</TD><TD>3rd Att</TD><TD>3rd %</TD><TD>4th Md</TD><TD>4th Att</TD><TD>4th %</TD><TD>Pen</TD><TD>PenYds</TD><TD>TOP</TD><TD>TF</TD><TD>L</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Dallas</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>186</TD><TD>440.0</TD><TD>7.1</TD><TD>24.0</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>60.0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>244</TD><TD>32:54</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Denver</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>192</TD><TD>432.0</TD><TD>6.8</TD><TD>26.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>100.0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>102</TD><TD>30:21</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New York (N)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>199</TD><TD>400.3</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>23.3</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>45.7</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>179</TD><TD>32:22</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New Orleans</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>188</TD><TD>396.7</TD><TD>6.3</TD><TD>19.7</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>43.2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>30:02</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>San Diego</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>167</TD><TD>376.3</TD><TD>6.8</TD><TD>18.7</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>54.3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>100.0</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>109</TD><TD>28:46</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Philadelphia</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>199</TD><TD>373.0</TD><TD>5.6</TD><TD>22.3</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>47.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>147</TD><TD>32:54</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Tampa Bay</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>208</TD><TD>372.3</TD><TD>5.4</TD><TD>20.3</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>221</TD><TD>28:23</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Green Bay</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>183</TD><TD>366.0</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>17.0</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>42.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>248</TD><TD>30:25</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Atlanta</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>175</TD><TD>362.0</TD><TD>6.2</TD><TD>17.7</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>39.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>150</TD><TD>29:38</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Arizona</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>187</TD><TD>347.7</TD><TD>5.6</TD><TD>19.7</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>42.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>66.7</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>127</TD><TD>31:58</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>San Francisco</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>342.0</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>19.3</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>37.1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>100.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>110</TD><TD>30:19</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Seattle</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>205</TD><TD>336.7</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>20.7</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>34.1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>160</TD><TD>30:30</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Buffalo</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>187</TD><TD>333.7</TD><TD>5.4</TD><TD>18.7</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>38.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>100.0</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>79</TD><TD>32:20</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Washington</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>185</TD><TD>329.0</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>31.4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>66.7</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>128</TD><TD>30:32</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Chicago</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>198</TD><TD>326.7</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>16.7</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>43.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>210</TD><TD>31:14</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Miami</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>179</TD><TD>324.7</TD><TD>5.4</TD><TD>19.3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>29.4</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>136</TD><TD>29:53</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Minnesota</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>194</TD><TD>319.7</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>18.0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>31.7</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>66.7</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>147</TD><TD>32:58</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Tennessee</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>182</TD><TD>315.7</TD><TD>5.2</TD><TD>16.3</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>30.8</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25.0</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>136</TD><TD>30:11</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Baltimore</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>139</TD><TD>315.5</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>21.0</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>42.9</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>104</TD><TD>37:02</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Indianapolis</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>313.0</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>19.7</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>45.7</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>122</TD><TD>24:42</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Oakland</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>173</TD><TD>303.0</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>14.3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>26.3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>80.0</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>182</TD><TD>29:25</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>174</TD><TD>289.0</TD><TD>5.0</TD><TD>16.7</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>26.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>131</TD><TD>26:30</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New York (A)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>168</TD><TD>285.7</TD><TD>5.1</TD><TD>16.0</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>36.4</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>105</TD><TD>29:02</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Jacksonville</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>186</TD><TD>278.3</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>38.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.0</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>124</TD><TD>33:54</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Houston</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>126</TD><TD>275.5</TD><TD>4.4</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>24.0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>28.6</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>29:35</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New England</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>177</TD><TD>271.3</TD><TD>4.6</TD><TD>16.7</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>40.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.0</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>29:37</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Carolina</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>180</TD><TD>269.3</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>15.3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>25.6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>161</TD><TD>29:50</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Kansas City</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>195</TD><TD>258.3</TD><TD>4.0</TD><TD>15.3</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>40.8</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>64</TD><TD>29:10</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Pittsburgh</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>172</TD><TD>255.3</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>16.3</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>31.4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>136</TD><TD>29:33</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Cincinnati</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>238.7</TD><TD>4.0</TD><TD>14.3</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>34.9</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>132</TD><TD>27:11</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>St. Louis</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>155</TD><TD>202.3</TD><TD>3.9</TD><TD>11.7</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>22.2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>26:03</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Cleveland</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>159</TD><TD>194.0</TD><TD>3.7</TD><TD>13.0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>35.1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>185</TD><TD>25:00</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
BOTH IN THE BOTTOM 3!!!
THERE IS A FORMULA MOST OF THE GAMES ARE CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE...THIS ONE IS WAY OFF
TOTAL YARDS AVG. BOTH TEAMS MINUS 325 DIV BY 7.5
CINN 238 VS CLEVE 194 = 432 -325 = 107 DIV BY 7.5 = 14 POINTS
I'M NOT SAYING THAT THE TOTAL SCORE WILL BE 14 POINTS(LOTS OF VALUE)....BUT IF YOU DO THIS TO EVERY GAME
LETS DO SD VS OAK
376 + 302 = 678 -325 =353 DIV BY 7.5=47...THE LINE IS 45
SEE WHAT I MEAN
FEED BACK ON THE CLEVE,CINN TOTAL?
ACE-ACE
The public likes this game over...at ssi Its 72% public on the over!!
CINN LAST 3 GAMES
10-17 40.5 UNDER
20-17 37.5 UNDER
10-23 37 UNDER
LINEOFF FOR THE "TOTALS" IS -10 FOR CINN
CLEVE LAST 3 GAMES
10-28 48 UNDER
6-10 43 UNDER
10-28 37.5 OVER BY 1/2 POINTS
LINEOFF IS -37 FOR CLEVE!!!
BOOKS HAVE AVG THE NUMBER ON CINN 39.5
CLEVE THEY AVG THE NUMBERS 42.5
THEY MADE THIS GAME 44.5 HIGHER THAN THE AVG
DONT GET IT!!
LOOK AT THIS
TOTAL AVG YARDS
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD colSpan=17>NFL Total Offense - Total Yards/Game</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD>Team</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>Plys</TD><TD>Yds/G</TD><TD>Y/P</TD><TD>FD/G</TD><TD>3rd Md</TD><TD>3rd Att</TD><TD>3rd %</TD><TD>4th Md</TD><TD>4th Att</TD><TD>4th %</TD><TD>Pen</TD><TD>PenYds</TD><TD>TOP</TD><TD>TF</TD><TD>L</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Dallas</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>186</TD><TD>440.0</TD><TD>7.1</TD><TD>24.0</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>60.0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>244</TD><TD>32:54</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Denver</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>192</TD><TD>432.0</TD><TD>6.8</TD><TD>26.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>100.0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>102</TD><TD>30:21</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New York (N)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>199</TD><TD>400.3</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>23.3</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>45.7</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>179</TD><TD>32:22</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New Orleans</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>188</TD><TD>396.7</TD><TD>6.3</TD><TD>19.7</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>43.2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>30:02</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>San Diego</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>167</TD><TD>376.3</TD><TD>6.8</TD><TD>18.7</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>54.3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>100.0</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>109</TD><TD>28:46</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Philadelphia</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>199</TD><TD>373.0</TD><TD>5.6</TD><TD>22.3</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>47.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>147</TD><TD>32:54</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Tampa Bay</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>208</TD><TD>372.3</TD><TD>5.4</TD><TD>20.3</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>221</TD><TD>28:23</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Green Bay</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>183</TD><TD>366.0</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>17.0</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>42.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>248</TD><TD>30:25</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Atlanta</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>175</TD><TD>362.0</TD><TD>6.2</TD><TD>17.7</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>39.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>150</TD><TD>29:38</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Arizona</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>187</TD><TD>347.7</TD><TD>5.6</TD><TD>19.7</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>42.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>66.7</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>127</TD><TD>31:58</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>San Francisco</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>342.0</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>19.3</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>37.1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>100.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>110</TD><TD>30:19</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Seattle</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>205</TD><TD>336.7</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>20.7</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>34.1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>160</TD><TD>30:30</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Buffalo</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>187</TD><TD>333.7</TD><TD>5.4</TD><TD>18.7</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>38.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>100.0</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>79</TD><TD>32:20</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Washington</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>185</TD><TD>329.0</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>31.4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>66.7</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>128</TD><TD>30:32</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Chicago</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>198</TD><TD>326.7</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>16.7</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>43.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>210</TD><TD>31:14</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Miami</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>179</TD><TD>324.7</TD><TD>5.4</TD><TD>19.3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>29.4</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>136</TD><TD>29:53</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Minnesota</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>194</TD><TD>319.7</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>18.0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>31.7</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>66.7</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>147</TD><TD>32:58</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Tennessee</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>182</TD><TD>315.7</TD><TD>5.2</TD><TD>16.3</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>30.8</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25.0</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>136</TD><TD>30:11</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Baltimore</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>139</TD><TD>315.5</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>21.0</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>42.9</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>104</TD><TD>37:02</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Indianapolis</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>313.0</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>19.7</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>45.7</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>122</TD><TD>24:42</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Oakland</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>173</TD><TD>303.0</TD><TD>5.3</TD><TD>14.3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>26.3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>80.0</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>182</TD><TD>29:25</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>174</TD><TD>289.0</TD><TD>5.0</TD><TD>16.7</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>26.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>131</TD><TD>26:30</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New York (A)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>168</TD><TD>285.7</TD><TD>5.1</TD><TD>16.0</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>36.4</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>105</TD><TD>29:02</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Jacksonville</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>186</TD><TD>278.3</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>38.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.0</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>124</TD><TD>33:54</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Houston</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>126</TD><TD>275.5</TD><TD>4.4</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>24.0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>28.6</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>29:35</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New England</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>177</TD><TD>271.3</TD><TD>4.6</TD><TD>16.7</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>40.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.0</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>29:37</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Carolina</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>180</TD><TD>269.3</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>15.3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>25.6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>161</TD><TD>29:50</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Kansas City</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>195</TD><TD>258.3</TD><TD>4.0</TD><TD>15.3</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>40.8</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>64</TD><TD>29:10</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Pittsburgh</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>172</TD><TD>255.3</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>16.3</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>31.4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>33.3</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>136</TD><TD>29:33</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Cincinnati</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>238.7</TD><TD>4.0</TD><TD>14.3</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>34.9</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>132</TD><TD>27:11</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>St. Louis</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>155</TD><TD>202.3</TD><TD>3.9</TD><TD>11.7</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>22.2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>26:03</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>Cleveland</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>159</TD><TD>194.0</TD><TD>3.7</TD><TD>13.0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>35.1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>185</TD><TD>25:00</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
BOTH IN THE BOTTOM 3!!!
THERE IS A FORMULA MOST OF THE GAMES ARE CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE...THIS ONE IS WAY OFF
TOTAL YARDS AVG. BOTH TEAMS MINUS 325 DIV BY 7.5
CINN 238 VS CLEVE 194 = 432 -325 = 107 DIV BY 7.5 = 14 POINTS
I'M NOT SAYING THAT THE TOTAL SCORE WILL BE 14 POINTS(LOTS OF VALUE)....BUT IF YOU DO THIS TO EVERY GAME
LETS DO SD VS OAK
376 + 302 = 678 -325 =353 DIV BY 7.5=47...THE LINE IS 45
SEE WHAT I MEAN
FEED BACK ON THE CLEVE,CINN TOTAL?
ACE-ACE
cinn is 24th and clev is 23rd in total defense.
you could make the point that both of their d's suck.
cinn has played balt #1, tn #3, nyg #6 in Toal D Ranks
clev has played dal #9, pit #2, balt #1 in Total D Ranks.
Hate to go against ya here ace, but I think both teams will put some pts on the board
you could make the point that both of their d's suck.
cinn has played balt #1, tn #3, nyg #6 in Toal D Ranks
clev has played dal #9, pit #2, balt #1 in Total D Ranks.
Hate to go against ya here ace, but I think both teams will put some pts on the board
