Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

KATCHE · Aug 21, 2006

Pronos For Mnf Ace-ace ?

lt8989 · Aug 21, 2006

With this system, Dal would be the play. But, based on previous outcomes, NO would be the play (because only one right, so far). Am I missing something from the system?

lt

Bad-Faith · Sep 13, 2006

I'm having trouble with the division part of the equation.

For the Line Off number what do you base the dividing number one.

I'm confused.

Same question for the Time of Possession differential and Penalty yardage.

I just want to make sure I'm doing it right.

Thanks for the help.

Knockout · Sep 13, 2006

lt8989 said:
First, I would like to thank you for your system and hard work. I have spent months putting this system into excel, using your formulas. I run into a few obstacles and would like to ask you for some inputs:

1. How far off your line from the real line?

2. For LineOff calculation, if SD Wk1 is +11 and CHI Wk1 is -12.5, for week 2 LineOff calculation SD@CHI -4, would it be SD +23.5/10=+2.35? Or SD +1.5/10=SD +.15?

Just for testing your line.....I have SD -6.04, CIN -2.84, and DET -1.93.

Am I on the right track? Am I missing something? Again, thank you for your system.

lt
when you're done with your system, may I have a copy of it? My email is Thanks.

These are numbers based from week 1 statistics. I'm not sure if the numbers you have above are for what week. I have SD -7.6, CIN -5.6, and CHI -4.8. I've already verified w/ ACE on the numbers.

Knockout · Sep 13, 2006

Bad-Faith said:
I'm having trouble with the division part of the equation.

For the Line Off number what do you base the dividing number one.

I'm confused.

Same question for the Time of Possession differential and Penalty yardage.

I just want to make sure I'm doing it right.

Thanks for the help.

For Lineoff, if the difference between the 2 teams is above 50, you divide by 20. Otherwise, divide by 10.

For T.O.P., over 25, divide by 10. Otherwise, just 5.

For Penalty yards, divide by 100 always.

ACE-ACE · Sep 13, 2006

Knockout said:
For Lineoff, if the difference between the 2 teams is above 50, you divide by 20. Otherwise, divide by 10.

For T.O.P., over 25, divide by 10. Otherwise, just 5.

For Penalty yards, divide by 100 always.

IS RICK SITE READY FOR THE SPREADSHEET?

TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A GOOD TIME IF YOU SAY GO!!! :103631605

Mr.Chosen1 · Sep 13, 2006

so ace

gb week 1 -24
new orleans +8

new orleans -16 so new orleans -2 is good

Bad-Faith · Sep 13, 2006

Knockout said:
For Lineoff, if the difference between the 2 teams is above 50, you divide by 20. Otherwise, divide by 10.

For T.O.P., over 25, divide by 10. Otherwise, just 5.

For Penalty yards, divide by 100 always.

Thanks for the help here Knockout.

I'm still getting something wrong.

I am not getting the same end result as you did for the San Diego game at -7.6

Just to clarify how do you assess the Turnover Margin.

And if possible can you show how you came up with -7.6 for the San Diego.

I only want to understand the formula and do some homework myself.

This formula is a proven winner, kudos to Ace-Ace for inventing it.

ACE-ACE · Sep 13, 2006

Mr.Chosen1 said:
so ace

gb week 1 -24
new orleans +8

new orleans -16 so new orleans -2 is good

I DONT HAVE MY PAPER WITH ME....BUT BASE ON ON LINEOFF -24 +8=32 FOR N.O. DIV BY10=3.2 THATS ONE PART!!!!

I PUT IN PRESEASON ALSO...70% OF WEEK 3 PLUS 30% OF WEEK 4....SO YOU SHOULD HAVE TWO WEEKS OF STATS SO FAR!!!!...AFTER 3 WEEK OF STATS...THAN YOU USE IT....IF YOU DONT GET IT ...ITS OK....THE SPREADSHEET WILL SHOW YOU ALL GAMES WITH A VALUE OF +6 OR MORE

Knockout · Sep 13, 2006

ACE-ACE said:
IS RICK SITE READY FOR THE SPREADSHEET?

TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A GOOD TIME IF YOU SAY GO!!!

I will contact him and ask him. He already said that it was OK. So I don't think it will be a problem.

Knockout · Sep 13, 2006

Bad-Faith said:
Thanks for the help here Knockout.

I'm still getting something wrong.

I am not getting the same end result as you did for the San Diego game at -7.6

Just to clarify how do you assess the Turnover Margin.

And if possible can you show how you came up with -7.6 for the San Diego.

I only want to understand the formula and do some homework myself.

This formula is a proven winner, kudos to Ace-Ace for inventing it.

Here are the numbers for SD and Ten.

Giveaway/Penalty yards/T.O.P/Lineoff

SD 4 /60/9/27
Ten 4/111/-7/-13

For Giveaway, obviously 4-4=0.

For penalty yards, SD is less penalized so 111-60=51 So give the edge to SD 51/100=.51

T.O.P again edge goes to SD as they hold the ball longer than Ten.
9-(-7)=16. 16/5=3.2

Lineoff again goes to SD. 27-(-13)=40. Then, 40/10=4

Add it all up. .51+3.2+4=7.71

Line for SD is -11.5. ACE's line is -7.71. So only a value of just under 4.

This is different than what I gave above because that number was exact. These numbers were rounded out to make the calcs easier. Let me know if you have any more questions.

Bad-Faith · Sep 13, 2006

Knockout said:
Here are the numbers for SD and Ten.

Giveaway/Penalty yards/T.O.P/Lineoff

SD 4 /60/9/27
Ten 4/111/-7/-13

I appreciate your guidance here. I'm new to this as you can tell.

Giveaways.

San Diego had 0 turnovers in week one.
Tennessee had 2 ints and 1 fumble for a total of 3.

I don't see how you came up with 4 for each team.
--------------------------------------
Penalty Yards

SD had 3 penalites for 25 yards
Ten had 8 penalties for 70 yards.

Again I am getting the wrong stats bc I pulled these from Yahoo.
---------------------------------------
Time of Possession

SD had 35:48 minutes
Ten had 25:58 minutes

How did you get 9 and -7 for SD and Ten respectively.
---------------------------------------

Line Off

SD was -3 and won by 27.
Ten was -3 and lost by 7.

Why did you get 27 for SD and -13 for Ten.

Again thank you ahead of time for clarifying this.

Knockout · Sep 13, 2006

Bad-Faith said:
I appreciate your guidance here. I'm new to this as you can tell.

Giveaways.

San Diego had 0 turnovers in week one.
Tennessee had 2 ints and 1 fumble for a total of 3.

I don't see how you came up with 4 for each team.
--------------------------------------
Penalty Yards

SD had 3 penalites for 25 yards
Ten had 8 penalties for 70 yards.

Again I am getting the wrong stats bc I pulled these from Yahoo.
---------------------------------------
Time of Possession

SD had 35:48 minutes
Ten had 25:58 minutes

How did you get 9 and -7 for SD and Ten respectively.
---------------------------------------

Line Off

SD was -3 and won by 27.
Ten was -3 and lost by 7.

Why did you get 27 for SD and -13 for Ten.

Again thank you ahead of time for clarifying this.

You 're stats are right. You just need to include Preseason week 3 and week 4 stats as well. In addition to that, you need to take 70% of preweek 3 and then 30% of preweek 4.

Bad-Faith · Sep 13, 2006

Knockout said:
You 're stats are right. You just need to include Preseason week 3 and week 4 stats as well. In addition to that, you need to take 70% of preweek 3 and then 30% of preweek 4.

And the light bulb just went on!

Thanks brother.

I thought I was losing my mind for a moment. When is it a good time to ignore the preseason and just go with the regular season.

Week 3 or 4?

Knockout · Sep 13, 2006

Bad-Faith said:
And the light bulb just went on!

Thanks brother.

I thought I was losing my mind for a moment. When is it a good time to ignore the preseason and just go with the regular season.

Week 3 or 4?

ACE doesn't take them out. As the season progresses, the preseason stats become less and less of a factor.

$4nothing · Sep 13, 2006

Shhhhh ACE, don't give Vegas all your secrets.

:suomi:

HighRollingHitMan · Sep 13, 2006

I'm wondering if any of the Vegas Sports Consultants will look at this also and put some change in their calculation of the making of their spread.

Bad-Faith · Sep 13, 2006

I remember reading Ace only recommends betting games with a +6 or more value line.

With San Diego at -7.6 and the line set at 11.5 what is the derived value line and is it a good play.

Knockout · Sep 13, 2006

Bad-Faith said:
I remember reading Ace only recommends betting games with a +6 or more value line.

With San Diego at -7.6 and the line set at 11.5 what is the derived value line and is it a good play.

He actually looks at values of 7 or more. So w/ the actual vegas line of -11.5 and his "adjusted line" of -7.6; -11.5-(-7.6)=-3.9. So there is not enough value in this line for him to consider looking at it further. Remember, this system is the "weeding out" of plays. First he looks for the value, then if there is value, he looks closer at the games. He doesn't make plays on all values of 7 or more.

Bad-Faith · Sep 13, 2006

Knockout said:
He actually looks at values of 7 or more. So w/ the actual vegas line of -11.5 and his "adjusted line" of -7.6; -11.5-(-7.6)=-3.9. So there is not enough value in this line for him to consider looking at it further. Remember, this system is the "weeding out" of plays. First he looks for the value, then if there is value, he looks closer at the games. He doesn't make plays on all values of 7 or more.

Gotcha. Thank you Ace for this brilliant system and to you Knockout for your clarity.

I am highly interested in the spreadsheet. Please let us know when it's available to download.

Kudos to all and may we each have a profitable football season ahead of us.