Exbookie Conference Championships Thread....4 teams to go

[ACE-ACE]

candy

NFL
Long Sheet


Conference Championships

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Sunday, January18
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PHILADELPHIA (11 - 6 - 1) at ARIZONA (11 - 7) - 1/18/2009, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 128-88 ATS (+31.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
ARIZONA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (13 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (13 - 4) - 1/18/2009, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 77-48 ATS (+24.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-3 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NFL
Short Sheet


Conference Championships

Sunday, January 18th

NFC Playoffs
Championship Game
TV: FOX
Philadelphia at Arizona, 3:00 ET

Philadelphia:
11-1 ATS off division game
6-0 ATS off road division win

Arizona:
7-0 Over off SU dog win
10-0 Over off an Under

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AFC Playoffs
Championship Game
TV: CBS
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 6:30 ET

Baltimore:
8-2 ATS in road games
9-0 ATS off win by 3pts or less

Pittsburgh:
0-9 ATS after scoring 35+ points
15-5 Over vs. AFC


NFL


Sunday, January 18

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Trend Sheet
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Sunday, January 18

3:00 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. ARIZONA
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games


6:30 PM BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Tips and Trends
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NFC Title: Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals [FOX | 3 PM ET]

Eagles (-4, O/U 47): Philadelphia will be playing for a spot in the Super Bowl for the fifth time in eight years but will be trying to get back there for just the second time during that stretch. This year's run seems the most unlikely as a Wild Card team and will be the team's first on the road since 2001 at St. Louis against Kurt Warner. The Eagles lost that game to the Rams 29-24, and a lot has obviously changed for Warner and Donovan McNabb since then. Ironically, Philly's turnaround this year took place at home against Arizona in Week 13, resulting in a 48-20 victory and leading to six wins in seven weeks.

Eagles are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.
The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Philadelphia's last 9 playoff games.

Key Injuries - RB Brian Westbrook (knee) is probable.
WR Jason Avant (knee) is probable.
OG Shawn Andrews (back) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Cardinals: Very few gave Arizona a shot to win last week at Carolina after watching a team that went 0-5 on the East Coast during the regular season go up against an opponent that had not lost a game at home. Now the Cardinals need to prove that shocking 33-13 upset of the Panthers was no fluke. “Not many people had very nice things to say about us and didn’t give us a chance,” Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt said. “We believe in ourselves. I like being the underdog, and we’re going to continue to be the underdog.”

Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
The OVER is 8-1 in Arizona's last 9 home games.

Key Injuries - WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring) is questionable.
TE Stephen Spach (leg) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (Side Play of the Day)



AFC Title: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers [CBS | 6:30 PM ET]

Ravens: Baltimore owns a remarkable 8-to-1 turnover advantage, which has helped QB Joe Flacco become the first rookie in NFL history to win twice on the road in the playoffs. Flacco has not needed to do much at Miami and Tennessee over the last couple weeks thanks to a strong defense, but playing mistake-free football also shouldn't be undervalued. “We’ve been confident in ourselves all year,” Flacco said. “It seems like we’ve been on the road for the longest time. It doesn’t matter to us. We’re going to go out there and battle the crowd, battle the other team, and give it our best.”

Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. AFC.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - DE Terrell Suggs (shoulder) is questionable.
CB Samari Rolle (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Steelers (-6, O/U 34): Pittsburgh will be appearing in the AFC title game for the fourth time in eight years and first under head coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have split eight meetings with the Ravens since winning Super Bowl XL, and five of those games have been decided by six points or less. “We’re at the point of the season where it’s about “It would be a big game if it was a scrimmage,” Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said. “This is for the AFC championship.”

Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The OVER is 15-2 in Pittsburgh's last 17 January games.

Key Injuries - S Troy Polamalu (calf) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

 

[ACE-ACE]

My plays


$2500.00 Philadelphia (-4) over Arizona (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 18)
I’m going to stay on Philadelphia’s bandwagon and I just think that Donovan McNabb is playing better than any quarterback left in the postseason. Philadelphia already hammered Arizona once this year, winning 48-20 earlier this year in Philly. They won that game because they are just that much better than the Cardinals and will win again here for the same reason. Arizona has been a great story, but I don’t think that they have three consecutive outright wins as an underdog in them. Their defense has played pretty well, but they still gave up 24 points to Atlanta at home and gave up some decent drives to the Panthers before Carolina shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. Philadelphia has the experience and they have owned Arizona, historically. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The points won’t matter in this one.

$2000.00 Baltimore (+6) over Pittsburgh (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 18)
We’ve been riding the Ravens so why stop now? Baltimore lost both of the previous games by a combined seven points so I think that six points is too many here in a game that the Ravens will win outright. The Ravens defense has the look of the 2000 championship unit and I think that they are just too tough to beat three times in one season. Pittsburgh has lost three straight home conference championship games, falling to New England in 2005, 2002, and Denver in 1998. I think they come up short once again. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in road playoff games, 7-3 ATS in all playoff games, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games straight up against the Steelers.

$300.00 TEASER: Take Baltimore (+16), ‘Under’ 44.0 Baltimore at Pittsburgh, and ‘Over’ 37.0 Philadelphia at Arizona

 

[cashflowmatters]

Thee is alot of love out there for the Cards , but like you Ace I like the Eagles to not only win this week but again 2 weeks later VS either team from the AFC. GL on your action & again thank you for all you do here

 

[mj23]

Thee is alot of love out there for the Cards , but like you Ace I like the Eagles to not only win this week but again 2 weeks later VS either team from the AFC. GL on your action & again thank you for all you do here

Eagles vs Pitt but i think Ace is right Balt + the points is the right side !

 

[captain_vood]

"so I think that six points is too many here in a game that the Ravens will win outright."

If the theory is that the Ravens will outright, and knowing that "points usually don't matter", why not cash the +220 ML?

 

[TheChief+]

"so I think that six points is too many here in a game that the Ravens will win outright."

If the theory is that the Ravens will outright, and knowing that "points usually don't matter", why not cash the +220 ML?

Just a little added insurance in case Baltimore blows it at the end like they did in both games against Pittsburgh this year I guess.

 

[ACE-ACE]

"so I think that six points is too many here in a game that the Ravens will win outright."

If the theory is that the Ravens will outright, and knowing that "points usually don't matter", why not cash the +220 ML?

In past years out of the 10 playoff game and the superbowl....points have matter 2 each year..so if history is right...there will be one the the points will matter in the next 3 games...my guts say you are right...but history says take the points also.

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

+6 is such a critical number Ace. What are your thoughts about buying the hook to get it at +7 ???

 

[ACE-ACE]

+6 is such a critical number Ace. What are your thoughts about buying the hook to get it at +7 ???

the oddsmaker got this game at 33.5.....I would not pay -130 or -140 to get it at +7....my point of view it would be better to do the M/L...if you dont want the +6

 

[ACE-ACE]

DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND IN THE NFL
We’re down to the last three games in the NFL season. Sunday will feature the NFC Championship game matching #6 seed Philadelphia and #4 seed Arizona…and the AFC Championship game matching #6 seed Baltimore and #2 seed Pittsburgh. The winners play in the Super Bowl in two weeks. The pointspread for the Super Bowl will go up Sunday Night as soon as the AFC Championship game ends.
If the dogs keep winning outright, the Super Bowl could be a matchup of #6 seeds!
It’s been that kind of year in pro football. Nobody’s been able to establish dominance on a week to week basis. Many of the teams with the best records either own a lot of close games, or played a very easy schedule. You could almost throw the best teams in a hat and just pick out a winner. Parity is an over-used word in pro football analysis. It’s really been the story this year.
You know, if all the playoff games had been pick-em, the lesser seeds would have had a winning record against the spread anyway. The seedings don’t matter. The pointspreads don’t matter. Just figure out who’s going to win the game and make your bets!
How have sharps been doing so far in the playoffs? If underdogs are winning, sharps are usually winning. That’s a good general rule. Though, a lot of guys thought Carolina was going to kill Arizona. For the most part, sharps are happy, and the public is frustrated to this point. The pubic loves betting favorites, particularly those with home field advantage and a bye. Only Pittsburgh put those factors to use last weekend. Those edges used to be HUGE in the playoffs. Not the past few seasons.
Let’s see what the sharps have been doing so far in this Sunday’s championship games. Be aware that sharp action sometimes “waits” until the weekend so they can take the extra points occasionally created by public betting.
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA: The early money came in on Philadelphia, as the game opened either at -3 with extra juice, or -3.5 depending on the store. We’re now seeing Philadelphia -4 everywhere. Does that mean the sharps love Philadelphia?
I’d say it means this:
*The sharps who like Philadelphia bet the earliest possible line to maximize their value. They know the public usually bets favorites. Sharps who liked Philly weren’t going to bet it at -4 or -5 when -3 with extra vig was available early.
*Sharps who wanted to set up potential middles hit Philadelphia at -3 early on so they could come back with Arizona at +4 or better…perhaps even coming back over the top with a bigger bet on Arizona at the higher price. This sets up nice payoffs if the game lands on either 3 or 4. Some early money represents “position taking” rather than an endorsement of a team.
*Sharps who knew they wanted Arizona haven’t bet yet. They’ll wait to see if the line goes higher. There’s no reason to bet the Cardinals at +3.5 or +4 if you can get +4.5, +5, or maybe even more on game day once the public starts hitting the game.
Add all that up, and you get a line moving up because ALL of the early money is coming in on the same team. That’s NOT proof that the sharps like Philadelphia across the board. It’s just proof that sharps know how to make the most of market tendencies.
My impression from talking to sharps in Reno and Las Vegas is that more guys will be on Arizona than Philadelphia come kickoff. Some of the public may take the home underdog because they heard that home dogs offer value. I think most squares will be on the favorite. This won’t be a classic “tug of war” game with all the sharps on one side, and all the squares on the other. It will be shaded that direction though.
The total has come down from 49 to 47. I’m a bit surprised the Under guys acted so quickly. The public tends to bet Overs, particularly at the higher totals. Maybe if they waited they could have seen a 50 or a 51. The consensus seems to be that oddsmakers overshot the mark by at least a field goal….and the totals guys wanted to bet before other sharps took their edge away. If the public drives the line back up over the weekend, more sharps will come in on the Under. There’s a lot of respect for Philadelphia’s defense. And, sharps noticed that Arizona settled for a lot of field goals last week at Carolina.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: We have a similar story here, in that the line shot up after its open even though sharps tend to bet underdogs. Pittsburgh opened at -4.5, and is now -6 most places as I write this (I’m seeing some 5.5’s out there).
I should also mention here that the public can influence openers during the playoffs. Many squares come to Vegas for big playoff weekends…and they’re still in town when the lines go up right after the final gun. So…it’s possible that some of the early movement on both favorites came from squares betting BEFORE they went back home to their 9-5 work weeks.
To me, both cases are more about position-taking than early square money. The sharps know what the squares are going to do, and they set themselves up for potential middles around key numbers. If the public is destined to drive this line to Pittsburgh -7, it sure pays to have possible middles at 5 and 6 (particularly 6). Sharps can come back over the top on Baltimore +7 if it gets that high…or can accept a +6 on the dog with the middle possibilities just below it.
I have heard some respected players talking about Pittsburgh here as a value play. Getting RB Parker back at full speed really gives them an extra dimension…and there’s a perception that Baltimore was very lucky to get by Tennessee last week. If the Ravens get outplayed and outgained to that degree again, they’ll have trouble covering for sure.
Most sharps are taking the points:
*Sharps almost always take the points!
*In a topsy turvy season where parity is the rule, you’re supposed to take points whenever they’re offered.
*In games with low totals, you’re supposed to take the points because it’s harder for the favorite to win big in a defensive battle.
*Both teams play conservatively in a way that will shorten the game, making points valuable as well.
The low opener of 33 on the total has gone up to 34. Nobody’s going to play Under at 33 unless a blizzard is in the forecast. So, the people who liked what they saw with Pittsburgh’s offense last week (and noticed that Baltimore’s defense was allowing a lot of yardage) hit the Over in addition to betting the Steelers. The Under money will come in if there’s a move higher than 34, or if the weather is going to be an issue. All in all, it’s shaping up as a very interesting weekend! The sharps like the dogs, but it’s far from a true consensus. The sharps like the Under in Arizona, and will probably like the Under in Pittsburgh but they’re waiting for more line value.

 

[ACE-ACE]

<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e153060 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e153060', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
3:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>313 Philadelphia Eagles
314 Arizona Cardinals
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>47021
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>52%
48%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e153063 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e153063', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
6:30P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>315 Baltimore Ravens
316 Pittsburgh Steelers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>38666
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>60%
40%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

68% on the over phi game
56% on the over bal game

 

[Toledo]

Two wildcards?

Ace-Ace, I have money on Baltimore (5-1) winning AFC and Philly (7-1) winning NFC at the beginning of the playoffs. So I am happy to see your picks for the week. The one thing that has me concern is that both of these teams are wildcards. When was the last time two wildcards advance to the Super Bowl?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace-Ace, I have money on Baltimore (5-1) winning AFC and Philly (7-1) winning NFC at the beginning of the playoffs. So I am happy to see your picks for the week. The one thing that has me concern is that both of these teams are wildcards. When was the last time two wildcards advance to the Super Bowl?

good job...two 6th seed in the super bowl!!! I did not see that coming:aktion033

hope we hit:toast:AA

 

[JWinner17]

Ace, I'm with you on Balty... It's tough to beat a team 3 times in a season, not to mention the total difference between those 2 teams this season is a combine score of 7.

Going to play Balty moneyline small and take the points for insurance.

 

[ThEjAcK]

GL :toast:

 

[jgdwvu11]

Have to differ on this one

Love the philly pick...putting alot on them even though I will lose a personal bet with a philly fan I made back in vegas the last week of the season when my patriots got screwed out of the playoffs and phillly got in...

I will be attending the pitt/raven game tomorrow on the 40yard line in all my warm close...the key here is that I have seen both these teams play...they are very simular on def and the edge here is the offense on pittsburgh. they are healthier now then ever and that will be difference in this game as they will finally be able to churn out the rushing yards needed to secure this victory by at least 10pts if not 13-17pts. flacco with at least 2 ints and a sloppy game will be in hand...pitt is determined to prove themselves this year after last year and with the schedule they had...all i have to say is experience experience experience....

for me!
$2000 on philly -4
$1000 on pitt -6
:toast:

good luck..

 

[919]

what the fuck does that mean? your intelligence downgrades every time i see your name around here. get your ebonics bullshit out of here and grab a book.


i'll edit this because you said the tennessee game and put a number rather than the abbreviation, but i'll leave the above statement because you're still an idiot. what about the tennessee game? the raven offense is garbage, that still shows true from the "TENN" game. like i said in my ABOVE statement.

Not sure you should be calling others morons and idiots after this quote...

http://forum.therx.com/showpost.php?p=6327741&postcount=10

 

[ACE-ACE]

Love the philly pick...putting alot on them even though I will lose a personal bet with a philly fan I made back in vegas the last week of the season when my patriots got screwed out of the playoffs and phillly got in...

I will be attending the pitt/raven game tomorrow on the 40yard line in all my warm close...the key here is that I have seen both these teams play...they are very simular on def and the edge here is the offense on pittsburgh. they are healthier now then ever and that will be difference in this game as they will finally be able to churn out the rushing yards needed to secure this victory by at least 10pts if not 13-17pts. flacco with at least 2 ints and a sloppy game will be in hand...pitt is determined to prove themselves this year after last year and with the schedule they had...all i have to say is experience experience experience....

for me!
$2000 on philly -4
$1000 on pitt -6
:toast:

good luck..

sound like great seat... we will be looking for you for those that have to watch it on a 60" set...GL AA

 

[bodyforlife]

Ace,

I have to admit that I am baffled by your comment "The Ravens defense has the look of the 2000 championship unit". Looking at the stats for the Balt/Tenn game and not the final score, I would think most people would have assumed Tennessee won the game. Collins passed for 281 yards, and the team rushed for 116 yards. Clearly the turnovers decided the game, but watching the game, I think most would say that it was a combination of Tennessee just being sloppy and some aggressive play by Baltimore (but I think more would say it was the former). I don't think this Baltimore defense is even 70% of that 2000 unit. Just my two cents. GL today. In all likelihood, I will probably pass...just don't think either game presents a solid play. Thanks for your plays this year. Always appreciated.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Ravens weakness is in the secondary, Tenn beat Balt in every aspect of the game except where it counted, the score board. Tenn was the better team without question.