Exbookie Conference Championships Thread....4 teams to go

[Hells Kitchen]

Bankroll now $86,724.00 UP 11.7 UNITS

Up 11.7 units...:missingte:missingte

Can we see your input on the games please.
Ilooked but could not find.:think2:

Just do every one a favour and go FUCK YOURSELF!

ACE ACE,really appreciate your work mate.
Continued success

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

I was shocked to see how many points the Steelers were favoured by. The way I interpret it is that the books are begging you to put $ on Baltimore. I would've capped the game starting at -2.5 Steelers.

:think2:

Hello Chief...

Please don't take this the wrong way my friend, however, why were you "shocked" to see Pittsburgh open as a -5 or -5.5 point favorite at home against Baltimore and why or how would you have capped the game at only Pittsburgh -2.5?

A check of past results shows that Pittsburgh has defeated the Ravens twice this year, have defeated the Ravens 3 of the last 4 times they have met, and have defeated the Ravens 7 of the last 8 times Baltimore has visited Pittsburgh...

...the odds maker made the Pittsburgh Steelers a home favorite of -5, -9, -4, -13, -5.5, -5, and -8 the last seven times Baltimore played in Pittsburgh....why would the oddmaker make a lesser line this time?

Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[TheChief+]

:think2:

Hello Chief...

Please don't take this the wrong way my friend, however, why were you "shocked" to see Pittsburgh open as a -5 or -5.5 point favorite at home against Baltimore and why or how would you have capped the game at only Pittsburgh -2.5?

A check of past results shows that Pittsburgh has defeated the Ravens twice this year, have defeated the Ravens 3 of the last 4 times they have met, and have defeated the Ravens 7 of the last 8 times Baltimore has visited Pittsburgh...

...the odds maker made the Pittsburgh Steelers a home favorite of -5, -9, -4, -13, -5.5, -5, and -8 the last seven times Baltimore played in Pittsburgh....why would the oddmaker make a lesser line this time?

Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:wink:

My reasoning:

First encounter this season, Pittsburgh won by 3 in OT. If you watched that game you would recall that were it not for one monumental screw up by Baltimore in the 3rd quarter, they would have won since they controlled most of the game.

The second meeting had the Ravens lose because of a bad TD call. Were it not for that they were about to win straight up. I remember both games vividly because I bet on Pittsburgh both times. The first game they failed to cover the spread, the 2nd game they covered. So they're 1-1 this year ATS vs. Baltimore.

Factor in that the Ravens just walked into Tennessee and knocked off the #1 seed.

3 of Baltimore's 5 losses this season have been by 4 points or fewer. They have won 8 of their last 9 games, their 1 loss being 13-9 due to a controversial call vs. Pittsburgh.

I personally think Pittsburgh should win this game, but I thought Baltimore would get a lot more respect, especially considering how a lot of people have been backing them in the playoffs so far. The line on my book is up to +6 now....I just don't see how that many points is justified. I'm not one to make up conspiracies but it really looks like Vegas wants people to take Baltimore here. I'm hoping people take the Ravens so the line can go down a bit and I'll hop on the Steelers. If not I may have to buy a couple points.

BOL to you sir:toast:

 

[the_czar]

Ace, when was the last time a NFL Championship game had a home dog?:think2:

i "think" new england was a very small favorite vs. pittsburgh in january 2005.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, when was the last time a NFL Championship game had a home dog?:think2:

i "think" new england was a very small favorite vs. pittsburgh in january 2005.

Not many over the last 20 years!

 

[ZJP6050]

I was shocked to see how many points the Steelers were favoured by. The way I interpret it is that the books are begging you to put $ on Baltimore. I would've capped the game starting at -2.5 Steelers. But we'll see as the line moves what's really going on.

injuries bro. at least that's the way i look at it...as well as the baltimore O running out of gas. while it appears the pittsburgh O is coming alive at the right time, and our D hasn't stumbled.

 

[goode05]

injuries bro. at least that's the way i look at it...as well as the baltimore O running out of gas. while it appears the pittsburgh O is coming alive at the right time, and our D hasn't stumbled.

ten game?

 

[buddha00man]

:toast:

 

[ZJP6050]

ten game?

what the fuck does that mean? your intelligence downgrades every time i see your name around here. get your ebonics bullshit out of here and grab a book.


i'll edit this because you said the tennessee game and put a number rather than the abbreviation, but i'll leave the above statement because you're still an idiot. what about the tennessee game? the raven offense is garbage, that still shows true from the "TENN" game. like i said in my ABOVE statement.

 

[MalikSealy]

zjp - i'm on Pitt (got them at -3, -165), but Pitts Offense will not hum like it did vs. SD. As you know, two diff D's they will be up against. I think Pitt will be able to move the ball still and I really don't see the Ravens O doing to much here.

gl

 

[ZJP6050]

zjp - i'm on Pitt (got them at -3, -165), but Pitts Offense will not hum like it did vs. SD. As you know, two diff D's they will be up against. I think Pitt will be able to move the ball still and I really don't see the Ravens O doing to much here.

gl

oh no, totally two different defenses. but i think the steeler offense is clicking at the right time. injuries to the ravens D...i see a ten point win here for pittsburgh

 

[pumpuup]

oh no, totally two different defenses. but i think the steeler offense is clicking at the right time. injuries to the ravens D...i see a ten point win here for pittsburgh

Yeah Steelers offense clicking alright. Gee... I bet the Chargers defense had something to do with it. :nohead:

 

[Steelcurtain77]

Yeah Steelers offense clicking alright. Gee... I bet the Chargers defense had something to do with it. :nohead:

Other than falling asleep on Peyton and Reggie in the 2nd half on one play, their D look stout vs the NFL MVP.

 

[ZJP6050]

Yeah Steelers offense clicking alright. Gee... I bet the Chargers defense had something to do with it. :nohead:

you're from the other side of the country, you've no business entering this argumentuke1:

 

[owll52]

Ace's thread

Gentlemen:
This is ACE'S thread please take your petty B/S to the NFL thread and stop cluttering up this thread!

 

[Norkoastal]

Gentlemen:
This is ACE'S thread please take your petty B/S to the NFL thread and stop cluttering up this thread!

Thanks you.... these bandwagoners are clogging up good threads...


Ace as you were kind sir.......
ope:

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Hey ACE, is there any steam or smart money plays you could post for the coming week, thanks in advance!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hey ACE, is there any steam or smart money plays you could post for the coming week, thanks in advance!

I only sign up for those AUG- Dec 31...great tool...but dont need it during the off-season

if anyone got them ....post it...thanks AA

 

[ACE-ACE]

NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
Scoring​

• Home teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are just 14-21 ATS
(40%) - Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona​

• Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 19-11 ATS (63.3%)
- Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore​

• Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG
on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%) - Record in ’09: 1-2 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona​

Rushing Stats​

• Home teams that average 106 RYPG or less are 15-5 ATS
(75.0%) - Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona, Pittsburgh​

• Road teams that allow 3.90 YPR or fewer are 27-11 ATS (71.1%)
- Record in ’09: 3-0 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia​

• Road teams that allow fewer than 100.0 RYPG are 25-14 ATS
(64.1%) - Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia​

Passing Stats​

• Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt
or more on the season are just 9-17 ATS (34.6%) - Record in
’09: 2-2 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona​

• Home teams that allow 192.0 PYPG or fewer are 11-16 ATS
(40.7%) - Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh​

Yards Per Play Stats​

• Road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense
are 17-5 ATS (77.2%) - Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia​

• Home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.00 or more yards
per play are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%) - Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh​

• Road teams outgaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards
per play on the season are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) - Record in ’09:
5-2 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia​

Turnover Stats​

• Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than
+1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%) - Record in
’09: 0-0 ATS​

- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore​

 

[ACE-ACE]

Key System​

​

​

- Play Against any team that knocks off the defending
Super Bowl champions if their next game is not in the Super
Bowl. (9-1 ATS)

​

Here are some top trend angles on this game:​

Favoring Philadelphia​

* PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) vs. excellent passing
teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+
games since 1992. The average score was PHILADELPHIA
27.5, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 1*)​

Favoring Arizona​

* ARIZONA is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring
opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The average
score was ARIZONA 18.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 1*)​

Favoring Over the Total​

* ARIZONA is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) when playing against a
team with a winning record this season. The average score was
ARIZONA 25.9, OPPONENT 28.0 - (Rating = 1*)​

Favoring Under the Total​

* Reid is 20-10 UNDER (+9.0 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who
give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 22.4, OPPONENT 16.4

​

Here are some top trend angles on this game:​

Favoring Baltimore​

* PITTSBURGH is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after scoring 35 points or
more last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was
PITTSBURGH 19.1, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 4*)​

Favoring Pittsburgh​

* PITTSBURGH is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) as a home favorite of
3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH
24.4, OPPONENT 16.2 - (Rating = 1*)​

Favoring Over the Total​

* PITTSBURGH is 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) in home games
against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. The
average score was PITTSBURGH 25.3, OPPONENT 16.7 -
(Rating = 1*)​

Favoring Under the Total​

* BALTIMORE is 20-7 UNDER (+12.3 Units) after 3 or more
consecutive wins since 1992. The average score was BALTIMORE
17.7, OPPONENT 12.0 - (Rating = 1*)​