Everyone playing N.E./Tenn. game, PLEASE READ>>>

[muffinman]

I have benifited numerous times from knowledgable cappers sharing important info on certain games. I feel it is my time to repay the favor.
Before I begin this thread, I am from the N.E. area, and have been a PATS fan my whole life. I am writing this thread to share local info(not to impose my opinions). Do what you want with it.....

First off,
There are still people out there not giving the Patriots the respect they deserve. This team has done something that very few teams in the history of the NFL have managed to do, win 12 staight. They have also played a pretty tough schedule against some pretty tough defenses, and won/covered:

The Patriots played 6 times vs. teams w/ defenses ranked among the TOP 6 in the league (entering into the game). Below are the results of how they fared...

DATE OPP. TotD RunD PassD SCORE
10-5 Tenn. 5 3 19 38-30
10-26 Cle. 6 27 1 9-3
11-3 @Den. 2 10 5 30-26
11-16 Dal. 1 3 1 12-0
12-15 Jax. 5 2 15 27-13
12-27 Buf. 2 7 3 31-0

These are some pretty good Defenses. But the key thing to notice is that they got it done vs. both great passD teams as well as great runD teams. This to me shows the amazing ability of Belichick and his staff to alter their game plans and still come out on top. Another note about the above chart, is that they covered every one of those games.

They are an amazing 8-0 su & ats @ home this year.
Both Brady and Belichick are 3-0 (undefeated) in the playoffs w/ the Pats. They are also 3-0 ats in the playoffs.

People, if you haven't noticed the conditions for gametime on Sat. night are going to be scarey. 0 degrees with a windchill below zero. It will be downright nasty out. I know a lot of people like to think that the weather will not be a factor, b/c both teams have to play in it, but check this out....

Since 1993, the Pats are 14-2 when the kickoff temp is below 35 degrees. this season they are 3-0 in these conditions. The last time the titans played in a game that was below 35 degrees was 2001, and they lost both games. Since 1998 the Titans are 3-3 when the kickoff temp is below 35 degrees. So what little factor the weather might play...the edge certainly goes to the Pats.

That's all I have for now. Any more info I can dredge-up I will post in this thread.

 

[PanchoSanza]

I like New England a lot, in fact I love 3 games this weekend, NE, Phill and KC.

I know thats 3 chalks but I feel they are all the right side.

I managed to get KC at -2.5 on Monday and only wish I had put more on it.

 

[BigLou+]

Both Brady and Belichick are 3-0 (undefeated) in the playoffs w/ the Pats. They are also 3-0 ats in the playoffs.



Question: How many times did they cover the spread in those games as 6 point favorites?

The 2001 squad was better, that's why they won the Super Bowl and this team won't. They scored more points on offense in 2001 and allowed fewer points on defense.

The last time a home team in the divisional round ended the season winning at least ten straight games was in 1993 when the Oilers won 11 straight to close out the season. They lost 27-20 to the Chiefs in their playoff game and went 2-14 the following season.

Big Lou

 

[muffinman]

Big Lou,
2001 Pats were a good team that had an awful lot go there way. They were the luckiest team in decades. They got every call and every bounce imaginable. Don't get me wrong, they were a good team, but this year is a great team. This year they are playing through injury after injury. They continue to thrive. After evry game their press conferences focus mainly on the next game at hand. I have never seen a team with more focus and determination to win. Yes, 2001 had a better offense. But this team is all around the better team.

A major point I missed earlier...
The last time these two teams met, the Pats were 2-2 and desimated (sp) w/ injuries. The Titans were 3-1 and pretty healthy (from what I remember). And the Pats were able to pull off the win (due to McNair INT)and go on a winning streak for the ages.
Now the Pats are MUCH healthier (week off always helps) and rolling, while the Titans are banged-up(E.George didn't even practice thurs.) and coming off a brutally physical game @ Baltimore. Who has the edge here????

 

[MrBing113]

muffinman, I agree with all of your comments.

There is no comparasion between this team and the 01 team. This team blows them out of the water.


PATS 24
TITANS 10

 

[PanchoSanza]

Lou I think you're too in love with your superbowl formula to see the obvious, NE 2003 is way better than NE 2001.

Your statement about the 01 team allowing fewer points is wrong.

2001 Patriots 272 Points allowed
2003 Patriots 238 Points allowed

 

[BigLou+]

You are correct. My mistake.

As far as the 2003 Patriots being better, no. They have peaked too early which is a bad thing heading into the playoffs.

Big Lou

 

[BigLou+]

"They continue to thrive. After evry game their press conferences focus mainly on the next game at hand. I have never seen a team with more focus and determination to win."

So are you saying that you have seen every press conference of every football team over the last 10-20 years and no team during that time had more focus and determination then this Patriot squad?

Big Lou

 

[spinman2]

I do believe in the theory of peaking too early -- I was a huge Oilers fan in that year, and it was very disappointing to lose to KC.

As far as this game - one thing that is hard to predict is what is going to happen in this EXTREME cold weather -- they might as well give them a big chunch of ice to throw instead of a football -- that being said - I think the edge goes to TEN in the QB factor solely because McNair is a mobile QB that can scramble for yardage - which may happen a lot in this weather.

TITANS - 20
PATS - 13

 

[muffinman]

Spinman,
I think you are thinking of the McNair of old. This guy can not move like he use to. Not to mention he has broken or bruised every bone in his body. Don't you think these past injuries will be painful in the - degree weather.

Big Lou,
No I haven't seen evry press conference in the past 20 years, but I have seen all this year of the Pats. And I think they are as focused as you could get. Not saying they are the most focused team ever.

 

[totalguy]

If Brady can pass effectively in zero degree weather, then the Pats likely win. If not, the Titans have the better running game and the better running defense and will win the time of possession battle, the field position battle, and ultimately, the game.

 

[PanchoSanza]

The "peaking too early" angle is bunk.

You guys conveniently forget all the past superbowl winners that peaked early in the regular season.

84 49ers, 85 bears, 86 giants, 89 49ers, 91 redskins, 94 49ers, 98 broncos etc.

Heck the 91 redskins played their most dominant football in September/October of that year, slowed down in Nov/December and then smoked everyone on their way to winning the superbowl.

I mentioned this before but Lou ignored it , maybe he can address it here.

As far as Lou saying that a team needs to play its best football in January and New England has peaked too early, how can he make that statement before January? Is it not conceivable that they have still not played their best football.

 

[BigLou+]

Pancho,

The "peaking too early" angle is bunk.

You guys conveniently forget all the past superbowl winners that peaked early in the regular season.

84 49ers, 85 bears, 86 giants, 89 49ers, 91 redskins, 94 49ers, 98 broncos etc.

I did ignore it because none of those teams fall into the parameters New England does this weekend. "Peaking too early" means they played their best football in December, not early in the season. Hope that clears it up a little for you.

There have been five teams since 1978 who fall into the category New England finds themselves this week in the divisional round. The previous 5 teams and their divisional round results:

1987 49'ers -9 vs. Vikings 24-36L
1993 Oilers -7 vs. Chiefs 20-27L
1997 Chiefs -1.5 vs. Broncos 10-14L
2000 Titans -6 vs. Ravens 10-24L
2001 Bears -3 vs. Eagles 19-33L

Big Lou

[This message was edited by Big Lou on January 09, 2004 at 12:33 PM.]

 

[BigLou+]

muffinman,

"Before I begin this thread, I am from the N.E. area, and have been a PATS fan my whole life. I am writing this thread to share local info(not to impose my opinions)."

So where exactly is the local info in this thread?

Big Lou

 

[PanchoSanza]

Well then 84 49ers and 86 giants all played their best football in December of their respective years if you measure it by margin of victory.

In fact, add the 00 ravens and 01 Patriots to that list.

If you look at each of those 4 teams, the last quarter of each season was their best in terms of outscoring their opponents and wins/losses.

All four of those teams went 4-0 down the stretch and had a larger scoring difference than in any other quarter of the season.

I'm sure there are probably more but I haven't looked at all the years.

 

[BigLou+]

Pancho,

Look at the points allowed over the last four games for the teams I mentioned above and compare them to the 2003 Patriots. Look closely.

Big Lou

 

[PanchoSanza]

1987 49'ers 19
1993 Oilers 41
1997 Chiefs 29
2000 Titans 16
2001 Bears 31

2003 NE 29

Past super bowl winners who were also stingy with points allowed in their last 4 games:

Tampa Bay 02 47
New England 01 44
Balt 00 37
GB 96 36
Dall 93 43
Sf 89 47
SF 84 43
Pitt 78 40
Oak 76 43


Lou you keep changing the criteria, are you now saying teams that play their best defence down the stretch are doomed to lose? Why exactly is this an indicator and why do you feel there is a correlation to playoff performance?

I can find any pattern if I look long enough. Most of them will mean nothing.

What exactly does you formula say is the cutoff for points allowed and why?

 

[lamjones]

Big Lou, why not just thank Muffin for the research he has shared with us and stop with the wise remarks you Punk Bitch.

 

[BigLou+]

lamjones,

"Big Lou, why not just thank Muffin for the research he has shared with us and stop with the wise remarks you Punk Bitch."

Isn't that a wise remark?

Big Lou

 

[BigLou+]

Pancho,

You have to think outside the box. It's not as simple as points allowed. If it was people would have figured it out a long time ago.

On a side note, I'm loving this! I can't wait for this game!!!

Big Lou