Euro 2016 - Chime in

[ML Dog]

Monday

Think it could be a 1-1 or 0-0 draw in Belgium vs. Italy +195

Let me ask you this question though, being you feel the DRAWs you stated are very possible, Opening Matches to Tourneys historically played "tighter" so we often see less scoring which along with the lower than usual +195 Line on the DRAW that we see...

several factors that do seem to suggest this DRAW play to indeed be +EV here...

would it not be better to go

17055 Belgium 1 / Italy 1 +495 $50.00/$247.50
17040 Belgium 0 / Italy 0 +550 $50.00/$275.00

Like, Split your Unit Wager on this DRAW bet? I'm personally weak on Math & Strategical stuff, could not play chess under any circumstances so just asking.

In case there is anyone around these parts who is blessed with a Strategical Mind.

 

[ML Dog]

This chick same chick Belgian Chick as was in my post 2 posts up there ^^^ was supposed to appear in my previous post ONE post up there ^^^ but there was a bump in Contract negotiations Belgians are hella tough negotiators they basically don't negotiate at all they just keep saying "No" until you break down crying and agree to their terms

 

[2PLAYSMAX]

Let me ask you this question though, being you feel the DRAWs you stated are very possible, Opening Matches to Tourneys historically played "tighter" so we often see less scoring which along with the lower than usual +195 Line on the DRAW that we see...

several factors that do seem to suggest this DRAW play to indeed be +EV here...

would it not be better to go

17055 Belgium 1 / Italy 1 +495 $50.00/$247.50
17040 Belgium 0 / Italy 0 +550 $50.00/$275.00

Like, Split your Unit Wager on this DRAW bet? I'm personally weak on Math & Strategical stuff, could not play chess under any circumstances so just asking.

In case there is anyone around these parts who is blessed with a Strategical Mind.

Not a bad idea wagering this way. I don't think a 2-2 draw is that realistic here, but that's the only downfall.

 

[kidman232]

im on sweden ml in this match, only for what i won on the spain ml in the first game, so its a smaller wager

 

[TheComputerGroup]

2nd half play:


Sweden Pk (-125)

 

[ML Dog]

Not a bad idea wagering this way. I don't think a 2-2 draw is that realistic here, but that's the only downfall.

Yeah even MY Numbers & Strategy challenged brain did have immediately OCCUR to it what Life would be like were one to go with that option, forsaking the +195 then seeing a 2-2 Draw

Belgium/Italy have played 4 goal games fairly frequently within their history.....3-1 those mind you (Belgium being the prevailing side mostly...in those 4 goal games)

but we are totally seeing the tightness of Opening matchup games, limited scoring...as one would expect. Conservative Play that is often seen in Opening Match games...

I should have added onto my statement in previous post (which follows) that my read of the lines on this Belgium/Italy match on the overall does "speak to" The Draw like Hint Hint Nudge Nudge big time.

+455 on that HT DRAW/Belgium FT I swear is "generous enough" IMO to be rock solid support for The Draw outcome in this one. To those who place any potential Value in "Line Interpretation". None of this post or any of my posts should imply I am actually "good" at this myself I am just posting to accomplish discussion which will hopefully lead to the most +EV play possible here.


Your +195 could very well prove to be that. :toast: Even if it don't work I personally think it was a Solid Investment. Intelligent Plays sometimes don't cash, this we know.

My whole deal is I worry about Italy's ability to contain Belgium within the Final 3rd of this match. Italy needs to show me.

Re-read what I typed before though (after the video) and you will see what I mean by how I should have included therein somewhere that the Line be very possible at least "whispering" DRAW...

I was REMISS in not including within my Line Analysis that whisper of Draw indeed so very very present.

Can Italia Fucking HOLD?

"+455 is pretty generous for that IMO, comparatively speaking per whats more usual for a HT Draw/Fave FT line so suggests a 1st Half Draw is rather unlikely but 181 Draw vs Belgium 1st Half -105 totally contradicts an impression that 1st Half Draw is a Longer Shot than usual...plainly states the opposite in fact."

 

[ML Dog]

17016 Belgium HT / Draw FT +1400 is "intriguing"

17022 Draw HT / Belgium FT up to +490 now from +455 Bettors at the US facing Book totally ain't "feeling" my scheme, ain't siding with my vision of this one they are running the fuck away leaving muh all aLONE

181 Italy +270 lol, Boogieman don't wanna pay out no +270

....plainly states that the general consensus is that ITA is overmatched here....

182 Belgium (UEFA-EURO) has risen to +177 from +156 and after getting bet down to (at least) +153

183 Draw now +202 from 190.....195 as mentioned....

Def means some $$ came in on ITA ML but I totally don't care, US Facing Book ain't no viable gauge IMO of Futbol MLs and especially with ITA Squad Changes due to injury when combined with the skill & experience working together that we have here on the Belgian Side.


17016 Belgium HT / Draw FT +1400 is "intriguing" though....cuz Belgium BIGTIME totally fathoms they need to come out make a really clear "statement", best way by far to play vs. ITA renowned defense so Belgium come out expend a bunch of energy 1H thus go FLAT Final 3rd

surrender equalizing goal?


+1400.


Fock.

Before I catch HELL for posting pics of (may be) Italian Chicks without Boobs in the photos....

 

[ML Dog]

Too fuckin late I know to post this here but this game sets up great (potentially aggressive attacking team vs. possibly solid defensive team) for 17356 Belgium corners taken -½ -135* <small>vs</small> Italy corners taken so I post it even though the match has started cuz maybe it gives "food for thought" to guys of a sort of Prop to look at in matchups like this future-wise...


...matchups of these sort of style of teams.


GL to all

 

[2PLAYSMAX]

Went from ugh to almost to not close within final 5 mins.

Love international futbol!

 

[ML Dog]

Went from ugh to almost to not close within final 5 mins.

Love international futbol!

Stunning you didn't get it at that 89th Minute ball into the deep ass box.

No explanation for the Belgian team that we saw today. Really thought you'd gotten it at that 89th Minute.

You get the equalizer you need there IMO much much less chance ITA scores that 2nd. Fuggin' Lifeless who tf are these guys Belgium completely demoralized after that wtf-like miss at 89:00ish.

Still a Value Play IMO at least just...

WTF BELGIUM??!!??

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Willie99]

I liked the way Italy played on offense at the beginning of the game. Controlling the ball and setting up chances. Once they scored their first goal, they reverted back to what they do best, play defense.

If they can score, they're going to be really hard (if not impossible) to beat

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

Of course the U.S.A. is my #1 team......But my 2nd is Italy......That`s right i`m Italiano cheersgif

 

[ML Dog]

I liked the way Italy played on offense at the beginning of the game. Controlling the ball and setting up chances. Once they scored their first goal, they reverted back to what they do best, play defense.

If they can score, they're going to be really hard (if not impossible) to beat

Yeah their record after Scoring First is among the very best.

Italy came out the gate exactly like Belgium was expected to, based on team makeup past performances...

...it seriously seemed like the damn squads had switched Jerseys

Important observation you make though, on Italy after scoring first, where regards 2nd half plays that may present themselves.

They get on the board first and that already historically skilled (very well-drilled) Defense gets even more rugged.

Gonna be fun to watch Italy in this one if they intend to Bring It Offensively as they did today.

 

[Willie99]

Of course the U.S.A. is my #1 team......But my 2nd is Italy......That`s right i`m Italiano cheersgif

me too, love the Azzurri

and I love Buffon too

 

[Willie99]

Yeah their record after Scoring First is among the very best.

Italy came out the gate exactly like Belgium was expected to, based on team makeup past performances...

...it seriously seemed like the damn squads had switched Jerseys

Important observation you make though, on Italy after scoring first, where regards 2nd half plays that may present themselves.

They get on the board first and that already historically skilled (very well-drilled) Defense gets even more rugged.

Gonna be fun to watch Italy in this one if they intend to Bring It Offensively as they did today.

interesting indeed, have to watch those 2nd half plays

if Belgium had anything resembling an attack organizing, the Italians just tackled them at midfield