Holland - Czech Republic.
Why are the dutch giving away 1/4 ball here, this line is, well, way out of line, weren't the czechs the ones who ranked firt in the qualification stage, weren't the dutch the ones with such a poor display in their game against germany, aren't the dutch the ones with so much internal team friction, don't the czech's have world class players comparable and even better at times than the dutch in nedved, koller, baros etc. etc. The answers to all these remain ananswered by the handicap odds here, and depite my long term bet on czechs to win group stage, i ll gladly take them again here + 1/4 goal at expekts generous 1.83 offer, for nothing less than twice my average stakes or so for 3.5%.
Germany - Latvia.
Giving away 1 1/4 goals in this tournament to any opponent is a lot, i dont doubt the class difference here, nor the german winning mentality in such tournaments, i prefer betfair's 1.5 for the -3/4 for 3.5%, i 've no doubt the germans will win, but i like to be on the safe side here, the czechs had a very hard time against poor latvia a few days ago, so i ll play it safe on the goals and slightly raise the stakes here.
Why are the dutch giving away 1/4 ball here, this line is, well, way out of line, weren't the czechs the ones who ranked firt in the qualification stage, weren't the dutch the ones with such a poor display in their game against germany, aren't the dutch the ones with so much internal team friction, don't the czech's have world class players comparable and even better at times than the dutch in nedved, koller, baros etc. etc. The answers to all these remain ananswered by the handicap odds here, and depite my long term bet on czechs to win group stage, i ll gladly take them again here + 1/4 goal at expekts generous 1.83 offer, for nothing less than twice my average stakes or so for 3.5%.
Germany - Latvia.
Giving away 1 1/4 goals in this tournament to any opponent is a lot, i dont doubt the class difference here, nor the german winning mentality in such tournaments, i prefer betfair's 1.5 for the -3/4 for 3.5%, i 've no doubt the germans will win, but i like to be on the safe side here, the czechs had a very hard time against poor latvia a few days ago, so i ll play it safe on the goals and slightly raise the stakes here.
Sorry to hear about your wee pussycat Jack.
There will be another one waiting somewhere out there right now, looking for someone who cares.
Euro 2004 will be won by the English, or at least thats what they keep flipping telling us.
in-ger-land in-ger-land in-ger-land
Us jocks wir rootin' fur ye.
There will be another one waiting somewhere out there right now, looking for someone who cares.
Euro 2004 will be won by the English, or at least thats what they keep flipping telling us.
in-ger-land in-ger-land in-ger-land
Us jocks wir rootin' fur ye.
good to hear from you eek, long time no see, hope all is going well for you buddy, and thanks for takin the time to post some very comforting words on my little cat toddler gone. so they say here too, that england is going to get the damn trophy, i doubt it, what with the effort their putting in this tournament, should they wisen up and decided to actually put some effort in they stand a lot of chances.
The Czechs demonstrated and proved beyond any reasonable doubt how wrong the handicap line was giving them a goal, overturning this 2-0 to 2-3, a thing that as most of you know is very, very rare in soccer especially with teams of about the same high level. In a way the germans proved me right too, for my thinking that giving away 1 1/4, was way too high, unfortunately the proved me wrong in that they d finish the latvians off, and hence the loss.
i am looking for value in todays games and i ll post should i bet anything.
i am looking for value in todays games and i ll post should i bet anything.
pain - Portugal
All prices at the sorry excuse of a bookmaker betandwin, unless mentioned otherwise
Spain -1 X at 3.9 1%
Portugal -1 X 3.8 1%
Spain over 3 corners first half at 2.1 for 5% (bet of the day)
5 or more yellow cards at 1.45 and No red at 1.2, at 1.74 for 1.5%
Corners 13 and over (betfair) at 2.72 for 1.5%
Greece-Russia
Bookings 9 pt and over 1.7 betfair. for 1%
Over 3 corners for Russia in the first half at 2.9 for 1.25%
Raul over Pauleta opta supremacy at 1.6 betfair for 2%.
and Spain - Portugal Over 2.5 at 2.26 (betfair) for 1%
Spain - Portugal
Spain -1 X at 3.9 1% Loss -1%
Portugal -1 X 3.8 1% Won +2.8%
(calculated as one bet)
Spain over 3 corners first half at 2.1 for 5% (bet of the day)Won +5.5%
5 or more yellow cards at 1.45 and No red at 1.2, at 1.74. Won +1.125%
Corners 13 and over (betfair) at 2.72 for 1.5% Won +2.58%
Raul over Pauleta opta supremacy at 1.6 betfair for 2%. Won +1.2% (24, -2, not even close)
Spain - Portugal Over 2.5 at 2.26 (betfair) for 1%. Loss -1%
Greece-Russia
Bookings 9 pt and over 1.7 betfair. for 1% Won +0.7%
Over 3 corners for Russia in the first half at 2.9 for 1.25% Won +2.28%.
W-D-L
7-0-1
+15.185%
http://www.bookiebusters.net/discus/messages/772/12376.html?1087770520
Sweden-Denmark.
I am not buying the draw scenario here, and the odds for the draw are ludicrous, it's been a long time since a saw such a public bias in the line, where the linemaker is almost solely setting the line solely on the the publics reaction. First of all lets get a few things straight on this one. The odds for the draw obviously include those of a 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 draws and upwards, and are set as low on the provision that all these results are favourable to both sweden an denmark. This is not the case. A 0-0 would have Sweden qualify first, but what about denmark? Provided the italians win, they will tie with the danish at 5 points, italians with 2 or 3 or 4 etc. goals and the danes with 2, best case scenario for them would be that italy win by just one goal, where we would go to another criteria on the basis of previous w.c. and euro qualifications, where the danes would come third, and if italy score from 2 upwards against the hapless bulgarians they are the ones going through, and the danish are out. In other words, a 0-0 draw is of course preferable to the danish than say a defeat, but it's in no way a favourable scenario for them. A 1-1 result would mean the danish get another goal for their offense, but all three teams tie with the exaxt goal difference, and in terms of their offense in their in between games, sweden 2, italy 1, denmark 1, in which case the italians need two goals against bulagarians, not suge a huge feat, and they go through to the next stage. ONLY a 2-2 draw means BOTH scandinavians go through. It's plain to see that even if one would want to bet the draw he d be better off betting the exact 1-1 or 2-2 scores than the combined odds. There are other considerations, a high scoring draw is the hardest result to fix, we are not talking about both playing conservatively, waisting a lot of time and ending up 0-0. Besides why would one of them if they score take a step back and allow an equaliser, the swedes of course wouldn't mind as much, but would the danes allow the swedes an equaliser if they score first, an equalising goal that can get them into a whole lot of trouble if the italians win? And it's not like those two are sister nations, and the whole world will be watching and it's their credibility at stake here...etc. etc. you get my point.
I am taking the Swedes at fonbet's very generous 3.4 for 2% and the Danes at pinnacles equally generous 3.56 for 1.5%.
I am also on bookings 6-8 at around 3.35 for 1.5% for the french and swiss game, as soon as i can get a decent amount on it. Excuse my, em, french but the swiss fvcked me good the other time around with the same bet in their England game, actually not the Swiss, just one fvcker coming from the bench and managing 2 yellows in a matter of 5 minutes, a red one that is, which of course send the bet down the drain. But hopefully this will not be the case here, swiss dont play tough and hard, neither the french, esp. against such soft opponents as the swiss, etc. etc.
I also like the over in the italians corners, the bums over at betandwin (limit cutting bums, but gladly a loser friend is willing to share some of the profits here and bet for me) are offering over 5 corners for italy at 1.4, good enough, and i ll gladly put 5% units on this one(highest bet). The swedes had 5 against them, the danes 8, the italians had 10 over sweden, should be a fast paced game for the italians, who do use their flanks quite a lot.
I too fancy the swiss not to score over France, the haven't yet and with their soft, crappy offense it looks like they won't in this euro, 1.65 at eurobet is fair enough for me, and well merits 1.5% of my bankroll, unfortunately its tremles only and i ll parlay it with france and italy, 1.4 and 1.22 respectively.
I am also taking france -1 1/4 over at them good folk from premierbet at 2 for 3.5%, the french will be after the win here to seal their first place and thus avoid the portuguese hosts in quarter finals, and i think it will be a conveincing win over the defenceless (pun intended ) swiss.
bol. Jack.
All prices at the sorry excuse of a bookmaker betandwin, unless mentioned otherwise
Spain -1 X at 3.9 1%
Portugal -1 X 3.8 1%
Spain over 3 corners first half at 2.1 for 5% (bet of the day)
5 or more yellow cards at 1.45 and No red at 1.2, at 1.74 for 1.5%
Corners 13 and over (betfair) at 2.72 for 1.5%
Greece-Russia
Bookings 9 pt and over 1.7 betfair. for 1%
Over 3 corners for Russia in the first half at 2.9 for 1.25%
Raul over Pauleta opta supremacy at 1.6 betfair for 2%.
and Spain - Portugal Over 2.5 at 2.26 (betfair) for 1%
Spain - Portugal
Spain -1 X at 3.9 1% Loss -1%
Portugal -1 X 3.8 1% Won +2.8%
(calculated as one bet)
Spain over 3 corners first half at 2.1 for 5% (bet of the day)Won +5.5%
5 or more yellow cards at 1.45 and No red at 1.2, at 1.74. Won +1.125%
Corners 13 and over (betfair) at 2.72 for 1.5% Won +2.58%
Raul over Pauleta opta supremacy at 1.6 betfair for 2%. Won +1.2% (24, -2, not even close)
Spain - Portugal Over 2.5 at 2.26 (betfair) for 1%. Loss -1%
Greece-Russia
Bookings 9 pt and over 1.7 betfair. for 1% Won +0.7%
Over 3 corners for Russia in the first half at 2.9 for 1.25% Won +2.28%.
W-D-L
7-0-1
+15.185%
http://www.bookiebusters.net/discus/messages/772/12376.html?1087770520
Sweden-Denmark.
I am not buying the draw scenario here, and the odds for the draw are ludicrous, it's been a long time since a saw such a public bias in the line, where the linemaker is almost solely setting the line solely on the the publics reaction. First of all lets get a few things straight on this one. The odds for the draw obviously include those of a 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 draws and upwards, and are set as low on the provision that all these results are favourable to both sweden an denmark. This is not the case. A 0-0 would have Sweden qualify first, but what about denmark? Provided the italians win, they will tie with the danish at 5 points, italians with 2 or 3 or 4 etc. goals and the danes with 2, best case scenario for them would be that italy win by just one goal, where we would go to another criteria on the basis of previous w.c. and euro qualifications, where the danes would come third, and if italy score from 2 upwards against the hapless bulgarians they are the ones going through, and the danish are out. In other words, a 0-0 draw is of course preferable to the danish than say a defeat, but it's in no way a favourable scenario for them. A 1-1 result would mean the danish get another goal for their offense, but all three teams tie with the exaxt goal difference, and in terms of their offense in their in between games, sweden 2, italy 1, denmark 1, in which case the italians need two goals against bulagarians, not suge a huge feat, and they go through to the next stage. ONLY a 2-2 draw means BOTH scandinavians go through. It's plain to see that even if one would want to bet the draw he d be better off betting the exact 1-1 or 2-2 scores than the combined odds. There are other considerations, a high scoring draw is the hardest result to fix, we are not talking about both playing conservatively, waisting a lot of time and ending up 0-0. Besides why would one of them if they score take a step back and allow an equaliser, the swedes of course wouldn't mind as much, but would the danes allow the swedes an equaliser if they score first, an equalising goal that can get them into a whole lot of trouble if the italians win? And it's not like those two are sister nations, and the whole world will be watching and it's their credibility at stake here...etc. etc. you get my point.
I am taking the Swedes at fonbet's very generous 3.4 for 2% and the Danes at pinnacles equally generous 3.56 for 1.5%.
I am also on bookings 6-8 at around 3.35 for 1.5% for the french and swiss game, as soon as i can get a decent amount on it. Excuse my, em, french but the swiss fvcked me good the other time around with the same bet in their England game, actually not the Swiss, just one fvcker coming from the bench and managing 2 yellows in a matter of 5 minutes, a red one that is, which of course send the bet down the drain. But hopefully this will not be the case here, swiss dont play tough and hard, neither the french, esp. against such soft opponents as the swiss, etc. etc.
I also like the over in the italians corners, the bums over at betandwin (limit cutting bums, but gladly a loser friend is willing to share some of the profits here and bet for me) are offering over 5 corners for italy at 1.4, good enough, and i ll gladly put 5% units on this one(highest bet). The swedes had 5 against them, the danes 8, the italians had 10 over sweden, should be a fast paced game for the italians, who do use their flanks quite a lot.
I too fancy the swiss not to score over France, the haven't yet and with their soft, crappy offense it looks like they won't in this euro, 1.65 at eurobet is fair enough for me, and well merits 1.5% of my bankroll, unfortunately its tremles only and i ll parlay it with france and italy, 1.4 and 1.22 respectively.
I am also taking france -1 1/4 over at them good folk from premierbet at 2 for 3.5%, the french will be after the win here to seal their first place and thus avoid the portuguese hosts in quarter finals, and i think it will be a conveincing win over the defenceless (pun intended ) swiss.
bol. Jack.
Let's see how the long term bets are doing.
Portugal and Spain to both qualify at 1.9 for 3.5%
Loss -3.5%
Group C Winner Italy 1.85 for 3%.
Pending. (almost a sure loser)
Group B Winner France 1.78 for 3%.
Pending. (most probably a winner)
Group D winner Czechs at 2.8 for 2.5%
Won +4.5%
Sweden - Denmark, Sweden at 1.92 for 1.5%
Pending.
Portugal in the final four 2.28 for 0.75%
Pending. (and starting to look real good)
Croatia over Greece @ 1.82 for 1%
Pending.
Bulgaria NOT to qualify @ 1.40 for 2.25%
Won +0.9%
Portugal and Spain to both qualify at 1.9 for 3.5%
Loss -3.5%
Group C Winner Italy 1.85 for 3%.
Pending. (almost a sure loser)
Group B Winner France 1.78 for 3%.
Pending. (most probably a winner)
Group D winner Czechs at 2.8 for 2.5%
Won +4.5%
Sweden - Denmark, Sweden at 1.92 for 1.5%
Pending.
Portugal in the final four 2.28 for 0.75%
Pending. (and starting to look real good)
Croatia over Greece @ 1.82 for 1%
Pending.
Bulgaria NOT to qualify @ 1.40 for 2.25%
Won +0.9%
adding a betfair prop.
i ll be taking at average odds of 2.15 and 1.5% of bankroll on dado prso over boy wonder (i doubt it) rooney on the opta index, this line is so way off, i expected rooney to be the dog here, let's have a look, pros is something like raul for croatia, all upfront passing goes through him, as he is both the first and the second attacker, and sometimes even a midfielder for croatia, he's far more experienced than rooney and plays a much more central role to croatia than rooney does to england, of course england are the favourites, they should have more, even slightly more, chances and probably a rooney goal which could cost this bet, but we are taking the better player here, with the more input to his team, the more experienced one too, the less prone to a yellow card, and the less prone to fouls, the one passing more as rooney actually plays in front and not behind owen, and in terms of his passing, well, nothing there, i think all that by far outweigh prso's presence in the underdog here and there's a clear edge.
bol. jack.
i ll be taking at average odds of 2.15 and 1.5% of bankroll on dado prso over boy wonder (i doubt it) rooney on the opta index, this line is so way off, i expected rooney to be the dog here, let's have a look, pros is something like raul for croatia, all upfront passing goes through him, as he is both the first and the second attacker, and sometimes even a midfielder for croatia, he's far more experienced than rooney and plays a much more central role to croatia than rooney does to england, of course england are the favourites, they should have more, even slightly more, chances and probably a rooney goal which could cost this bet, but we are taking the better player here, with the more input to his team, the more experienced one too, the less prone to a yellow card, and the less prone to fouls, the one passing more as rooney actually plays in front and not behind owen, and in terms of his passing, well, nothing there, i think all that by far outweigh prso's presence in the underdog here and there's a clear edge.
bol. jack.
France - Swiss
bookings 6-8 at around 3.35 for 1.5%. Won +3.525
Swiss not to score 1.5%. Loss -1.5%
France -1 1/4 at 2 for 3.5%. Won +3.5%
+5.525%
England - Croatia.
(A lot of things factor against me here to fvck me over, croatia's quick goal meant almost no attacks from their part for about 35-40 minutes, and so no corners (corner count at 4 in the end but the first half was crucial.), for some unknown reason the croatians decided not to play hard and tough today, and collina looked the other way in a couple of bookings, croatia's wide open defense mean two goals for the unremarkable rooney, costing me that prop too.
Bookings 9 over Betfair at 1.36 for 3%. Loss -3%
Croatia 4.38(betfair) at 4.38 for 0.5%. Loss -0.5%
Croatia Over 5 corners at 2.1, betandwin for 1.5%. Loss -1.5%
Prso over Rooney at 2.15 for 1.5% Loss -1.5%
You could say i didn't do that well with this game, with a -6.5% loss.
-0.975% for the day.
bookings 6-8 at around 3.35 for 1.5%. Won +3.525
Swiss not to score 1.5%. Loss -1.5%
France -1 1/4 at 2 for 3.5%. Won +3.5%
+5.525%
England - Croatia.
(A lot of things factor against me here to fvck me over, croatia's quick goal meant almost no attacks from their part for about 35-40 minutes, and so no corners (corner count at 4 in the end but the first half was crucial.), for some unknown reason the croatians decided not to play hard and tough today, and collina looked the other way in a couple of bookings, croatia's wide open defense mean two goals for the unremarkable rooney, costing me that prop too.
Bookings 9 over Betfair at 1.36 for 3%. Loss -3%
Croatia 4.38(betfair) at 4.38 for 0.5%. Loss -0.5%
Croatia Over 5 corners at 2.1, betandwin for 1.5%. Loss -1.5%
Prso over Rooney at 2.15 for 1.5% Loss -1.5%
You could say i didn't do that well with this game, with a -6.5% loss.
-0.975% for the day.
I thought Croatia would clinch it, but was wrong.(as usual
)
That Rooney kid gave me a serious sense of deja vu. Hes like a reincarnation of Gazza, his style and mannerisms on the ball are so like he used to be.
When he got subbed in the 2nd half the England midfield(previously pretty strong) crumbled down the left side as the danger (Rooney) disappeared and Croatias right side got freed up to do some attack work.
The English defence was weak too, especially for corners and free kick set pieces.
I can see them being exciting in attack, but that back area is pretty flawed.
I can't see them getting past Portugal, they have too much strength and depth.
That Rooney kid gave me a serious sense of deja vu. Hes like a reincarnation of Gazza, his style and mannerisms on the ball are so like he used to be.
When he got subbed in the 2nd half the England midfield(previously pretty strong) crumbled down the left side as the danger (Rooney) disappeared and Croatias right side got freed up to do some attack work.
The English defence was weak too, especially for corners and free kick set pieces.
I can see them being exciting in attack, but that back area is pretty flawed.
I can't see them getting past Portugal, they have too much strength and depth.
I couldn't agree more with your assesment of the english team eek. The defence is very error prone, and we are talking here about opponents such a the swiss and the croatians which are really nothing to write home about, england looked better defensively against France, but then they were all defending for almost all the time. Besides gerard and lampart are not your typical defensive midfielders, and none of them is particularly good defensively which doesn't help a lot. Portugal imo is not that good either but i think they have the edge here with the English, it ll obviously be a very unpredictable match though. Rooney is like Gazza, but he's not the football masternmind that gazza was (what a terrible waist of talent btw, him and george best), i was watching some euro 1996 segments the other day, and besides that spectacular goal with Scotland, gazza had so much going for him. Rooney has a lot going for him too, he's better than i thought for sure, and he does bring back memories of gazza with his presence in the field. It's a wonder though how anyone can look like gazza and yet manage to be even uglier than gascoine was.
Italy-Bulgaria
Italy -1.5 and -2 at 1.980 for 1.75%(pinnacle)
Bookings Over 9 at 1.55 for 3% (betfair)
Over 2.5 at 1.76 for 1.75% (betfair)
Over 5 corners Italy 1.4 for 5% (betandwin)
Sweden-Denmark
Under 2.5 at 2.0 for 1.75% (at the russian mafiosi of fonbet)
Sweden at 3.4 for 2% (fonbet)
Denmark at 3.56 for 1.5% (pinnacle - currently at 3.29)
Sweden at 1.92 for 1.5% (my pending long term bet)
Bookings over 9 at 1.75 for 1.25% (betfair)
I have confidence in the italians getting the job done, they were much improved and actually better than the swedes, they are very experienced team i reckon they ll get the job done. The over looks good here, italy will have to attack from point not continuously and the bulagarians might slip the odd goal in. I talked earlier about the corners, and i am also taking the bookings over at the generous price of 1.5, the bulgarians are tough, the italians will give it their all, the officiating lends a slight bias, and i don't think i ll have another fiasco like yesterday in the england game.
Most bookmakers are favouring the over in the Sweden-Denmark game, obviously the public money has moved this line too, canbet and pinnacle are two of the few favouring the under, are they right? I think they are, that's where i am too at least, both should be very cautious, the danish are a defensive low scoring team, etc. etc.
Italy-Bulgaria
Italy -1.5 and -2 at 1.980 for 1.75%(pinnacle)
Bookings Over 9 at 1.55 for 3% (betfair)
Over 2.5 at 1.76 for 1.75% (betfair)
Over 5 corners Italy 1.4 for 5% (betandwin)
Sweden-Denmark
Under 2.5 at 2.0 for 1.75% (at the russian mafiosi of fonbet)
Sweden at 3.4 for 2% (fonbet)
Denmark at 3.56 for 1.5% (pinnacle - currently at 3.29)
Sweden at 1.92 for 1.5% (my pending long term bet)
Bookings over 9 at 1.75 for 1.25% (betfair)
I have confidence in the italians getting the job done, they were much improved and actually better than the swedes, they are very experienced team i reckon they ll get the job done. The over looks good here, italy will have to attack from point not continuously and the bulagarians might slip the odd goal in. I talked earlier about the corners, and i am also taking the bookings over at the generous price of 1.5, the bulgarians are tough, the italians will give it their all, the officiating lends a slight bias, and i don't think i ll have another fiasco like yesterday in the england game.
Most bookmakers are favouring the over in the Sweden-Denmark game, obviously the public money has moved this line too, canbet and pinnacle are two of the few favouring the under, are they right? I think they are, that's where i am too at least, both should be very cautious, the danish are a defensive low scoring team, etc. etc.
It's very good to know we like the same bets here chris, gives me more confidence, let's hope we are both right, bol and enjoy the games.
i ll probably take your home team, i ve read your analysis on the game and i fully agree, i ve been a little slow betting it albeit and the odds should have by now moved against me.
i ll probably take your home team, i ve read your analysis on the game and i fully agree, i ve been a little slow betting it albeit and the odds should have by now moved against me.
