EURO 2004 from Germany

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adiing some totals for today:

Purtugal /Greek under 2,2.5 @ 1.90

Spain - Russia Over 2, 2.5 @ 1.971
 

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Sunday:

Still pending :
Croatia pk,-o.5

adding:

France- england: France pk, -0.5 @ 1.885

France - England over 2 @1. 763

BOL to all today
 

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Tuesday:

Germany over Holland: pk, +0.5 @ 1.965

It's still germany against holland, both teams have their problems. i see a tight match with probably a draw outcome. that gives me value on germany.

Czech to win @ 1.40 !! 2 units!!

Not sure of a cover but a win here is a must in this group
 

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So far 3-3 -1.512 (pushes recorded as no play).

Pending props looking good so far.
 

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Nice call with the draw on Germany, the other match was a little to close for comfort but got the job done.
 

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Recap:

6-3 +1.09

Portugal -1 @ 1.826

Not sure of the spain game..it will be a close one, but a no play for me
 

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it starts to go in the right direction after a tough start...now 7-3 +1.916
 

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I can't figure out whether to root for or against Greece to advance.It wouldn't be a porblem except I don't like the fact that Croatia tied the swiss.
 

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England - Swiss: England -1 @ 1.90

2-team parlay:

England to win (1.5) and France to win (1.5) for a combined 2.25
 

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A split day makes it 8-4 +1.816

Game for the weekend (might add some additional props or totals later)

Germany - Latvia: Germany -1, -1.5 @ 1.90 !! 2 units!!
It's a must win and they will come out focused as against the dutch. i'm looking for a 2 or 3 goal win here.

Czech- Holland: Czech pk,+0.5 @ 1.82
History!! Simple as that. i dont know why the czechs like to play the dutch, but they are the reason, why Holland had to qualify against scotland to come here and why holland did not go to the last world cup (and they will be the reason, why holland will go out in group stage
1053174822.gif
)

Spain - Portugal: Spain pk, +0.5 @ 1.80

They need a draw and they will get it (at least)

Croatia - England: Croatia +0.5 @ 1.98

2-factors here: 1) england plays not good at all and they tend to shoke when needed.
2) they need just a draw to go through, but even that would give me a cover.

Thinking strongly about the greek -0.5.
Russia is already out and i think finishing first in group A is crucial to avoid France. will probalbly make it a play later, but still have to think about it.

BOL to all
 

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Group D brought me a split with a unit loss.
Now 9-5 +0.636

Adding for monday

Greek -0.5 @ 2.05

They need the draw to qualify, but they will go for the win and 1st place to avoid the french-
 

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Recap:
9-7 -1.364
Pending Croatia +0.5 1.98

Props
2-0 +2.25
Russia over Bulgaria @ 2.40 Push
Greece over Bulgaria @ 2.45 win +1.45
Bulgaria NOT to qualify @ 1.40 !! 2 units !!win +0.8
Pending

Croatia over Greece @ 1.82 !! 2 units!!
Spain over Holland @ 1.82
Greece over Swiss @ 1.83
Croatia over Denmark @ 2.80
Croatia over Bulgaria @ 2.25

Sweden to qualify @ 2.0 !! 2 units!
Holland NOT to qualify @ 3.10

Total goals by FIGO + ZIDANE + BECKHAM + RAUL TOTAL over 6.5 goals @ 1.91 !! 2 units !!

Adding
Germany- Czech : Germany -0.5 @ 1.85

Czech will rest most of their top players. they clinched first spot and dont care about the outcome of the match.Germany not very solid, but if they score first against the czech b-team should be an easy win...additionally i think both teams like to see especially the dutch go out plus these two countries are overall very countries who historically like each other.
I'm not saying it will be a total fix, but some kind of...
get it while you can get...some books already have it at -0.75.
 

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chriscol,

Sorry but I cant let this go without some comments. The outcome of this game is not the question but the reasons why people always take the same angle.

You have quoted the same myths thats said with all these games.
dont care about the outcome of the match.
i think both teams like to see especially the dutch go out.
these two countries are overall very countries who historically like each other.

The real facts of this is that Germany are an ordinary team coming off a big disappointment with 4 days of german press on their back. 5 of their starters are on yellow cards and the coach is unsure which combination to use up front.

The Czech coaches, like any other team, will not waste this chance to experiment with players and tactics, especially defensively given Germanys situation.

Any back-up players will see this as an opportunity to contribute later so I think its a gimme they want to win. The team is on a high at the moment and wont want to lose momentum, they dont care who goes through to the next round and historically the countries are anything but friends.

Add the fact the books always shave the odds in these situations and value is certainly not in betting the Germans, especially if what it appears, that you are giving 0.5 start.

Please dont take my post personally, its just this happens alot and I feel the real points are lost with the same old assumptions.

However, I hope they work out this time and you get the win.
1036316054.gif
 

acw

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winbet,

Good to see some Irish around here!
I hope your a not a bookie.
Three Irish bookies have stiffed me already.
Nothing personal!

Anyhow
Add the fact the books always shave the odds in these situations and value is certainly not in betting the Germans, especially if what it appears, that you are giving 0.5 start.
If you are a bookie, good luck taking the Germans on. Sorry, not taking the Germans on, but the Asian market. Over here it is Germany giving .5/1 goal. You must be taking another mortgage to bet the Czechs!
 

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winbet, no problem with your comment. if you know me i normally dont go after that kind of theory and i'm not saying they will give it away on purpose, BUT...
it's a matter of motivation. in this case it depends on who is scoring first.if germany is scoring first (and make your own choice if you believe in this) i dont see the czechs to throw everything forward to turn it around like they did against the dutch. they will not risk injury or take other big risks.
If they score first the "b- team" will show up as portugal did in the last EURO 2000 against germany winning 3-0. But i really like my chances here.
"Team is beaten up by German press"...that'S right, but trust me that'S a positive sign for the germans.

I like the -0.5 very much as it needs a straight up win to go through..to lay 3/4 takes off lot of the value.
 

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Recap after Tuesday:

Regular plays:

9-9 -3.364
Germany -0.5 1.85

Props
4-2 +2.08

Russia over Bulgaria @ 2.40 Push
Greece over Bulgaria @ 2.45 win +1.45
Bulgaria NOT to qualify @ 1.40 !! 2 units !!win +0.8
Croatia over Greece @ 1.82 !! 2 units!! loss
Greece over Swiss @ 1.83 win
Croatia over Denmark @ 2.80 loss
Croatia over Bulgaria @ 2.25 push
Sweden to qualify @ 2.0 !! 2 units! win

Pending:

Spain over Holland @ 1.82

Holland NOT to qualify @ 3.10

Total goals by FIGO + ZIDANE + BECKHAM + RAUL TOTAL over 6.5 goals @ 1.91 !! 2 units !!
 

acw

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matahari,

These matches I do not like betting on simply because one does not know what the Czechs will do!

Point I was trying to make is that these days there are guys that automatically (without having any fundamental knowledge of the game) assume that the books/general public have a bias and as such a bet on Germany will be a bad thing.
 

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