Here’s the model projections this week, 7-7 on sides last week (61-66-9/yr.) and 1-1 on qualified sides (10-6/yr.) while totals continued to exceed expectations going 8-5-1 (78-50-8/yr.), but only managed 2-2 on qualified totals for the week (10-5/yr.).
CHI -5 / 44 (-3/38 actual)
IND -7 / 43 (-1.5/43)
BLT -9 / 35.5 (-6.5/38)
CIN -5 / 38 (-6.5/47)
JAX -1 / 43.5 (SF -3/45)
MIN -4.5 / 38 (NO -3/40.5)
PIT -5 / 33.5 (-3.5/39)
TB -3.5 / 35.5 (-1/39.5)
AZ -2.5 / 35 (ATL -1.5/43.5)
LAC -5.5 / 49 (DET -3/48.5)
DAL -20 / 38 (-17/39)
SEA -8.5 / 48 (-6.5/44.5)
NYJ -2 / 29.5 (PK/37)
BUF -14 / 49 (-7.5/47)
Continued success.
CHI -5 / 44 (-3/38 actual)
IND -7 / 43 (-1.5/43)
BLT -9 / 35.5 (-6.5/38)
CIN -5 / 38 (-6.5/47)
JAX -1 / 43.5 (SF -3/45)
MIN -4.5 / 38 (NO -3/40.5)
PIT -5 / 33.5 (-3.5/39)
TB -3.5 / 35.5 (-1/39.5)
AZ -2.5 / 35 (ATL -1.5/43.5)
LAC -5.5 / 49 (DET -3/48.5)
DAL -20 / 38 (-17/39)
SEA -8.5 / 48 (-6.5/44.5)
NYJ -2 / 29.5 (PK/37)
BUF -14 / 49 (-7.5/47)
Continued success.
Model projections (points, total yards, passing, rushing)
CAR 19.50, 299 (197/102)
CHI 24.50, 264 (149/115)
IND 25.00, 340 (218/122)
NE 18.00, 323 (226/97)
CLE 13.25, 262 (147/115)
BLT 22.25, 276 (156/120)
HOU 16.50, 379 (285/94)
CIN 21.50, 315 (233/82)
SF 21.25, 392 (252/140)
JAX 22.25, 327 (219/108)
NO 16.75, 325 (227/98)
MIN 21.25, 349 (239/110)
GB 14.25, 341 (227/114)
PIT 19.25, 284 (192/92)
TEN 16.00, 326 (202/124)
TB 19.50, 319 (236/83)
ATL 16.25, 361 (231/130)
AZ 18.75, 277 (156/121)
DET 21.75, 443 (294/149)
LAC 27.25, 329 (231/98)
NYG 9.00, 241 (139/102)
DAL 29.00, 349 (236/113)
WSH 19.75, 359 (261/98)
SEA 28.25, 370 (254/116)
NYJ 15.75, 281 (174/107)
LV 13.75, 239 (173/66)
DEN 17.50, 332 (204/128)
BUF 31.50, 427 (302/125)
Continued success.
CAR 19.50, 299 (197/102)
CHI 24.50, 264 (149/115)
IND 25.00, 340 (218/122)
NE 18.00, 323 (226/97)
CLE 13.25, 262 (147/115)
BLT 22.25, 276 (156/120)
HOU 16.50, 379 (285/94)
CIN 21.50, 315 (233/82)
SF 21.25, 392 (252/140)
JAX 22.25, 327 (219/108)
NO 16.75, 325 (227/98)
MIN 21.25, 349 (239/110)
GB 14.25, 341 (227/114)
PIT 19.25, 284 (192/92)
TEN 16.00, 326 (202/124)
TB 19.50, 319 (236/83)
ATL 16.25, 361 (231/130)
AZ 18.75, 277 (156/121)
DET 21.75, 443 (294/149)
LAC 27.25, 329 (231/98)
NYG 9.00, 241 (139/102)
DAL 29.00, 349 (236/113)
WSH 19.75, 359 (261/98)
SEA 28.25, 370 (254/116)
NYJ 15.75, 281 (174/107)
LV 13.75, 239 (173/66)
DEN 17.50, 332 (204/128)
BUF 31.50, 427 (302/125)
Continued success.
Top five rushing offenses:
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Denver
4. Baltimore
5. Arizona
Five worst rushing offenses:
1. Tampa
2. Vegas
3. Houston
4. New Orleans
5. Cincinnati
Top five rushing defenses:
1. Chicago
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Jacksonville
5. Minnesota
Bottom five rushing defenses:
1. Denver
2. Cincinnati
3. Buffalo
4. NY Giants
5. Kansas City
Top five combo rushing (O&D)
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Baltimore
4. Arizona
5. Detroit
Bottom five combo rushing (O&D):
1. Cincinnati
2. Vegas
3. New Orleans
4. NY Giants
5. Pittsburgh
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Denver
4. Baltimore
5. Arizona
Five worst rushing offenses:
1. Tampa
2. Vegas
3. Houston
4. New Orleans
5. Cincinnati
Top five rushing defenses:
1. Chicago
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Jacksonville
5. Minnesota
Bottom five rushing defenses:
1. Denver
2. Cincinnati
3. Buffalo
4. NY Giants
5. Kansas City
Top five combo rushing (O&D)
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Baltimore
4. Arizona
5. Detroit
Bottom five combo rushing (O&D):
1. Cincinnati
2. Vegas
3. New Orleans
4. NY Giants
5. Pittsburgh
Top five offensive efficiency (production related to quality of defenses faced):
1. Dallas
2. Indianapolis
3. Cleveland
4. Jacksonville
5. Baltimore
Bottom five:
1. NY Giants
2. New England
3. Atlanta
4. Carolina
5. Arizona
Top five defensive efficiency (production related to quality of offenses faced):
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Cincinnati
5. Buffalo
Bottom five:
1. Carolina
2. Miami
3. Chicago
4. Washington
5. Arizona
1. Dallas
2. Indianapolis
3. Cleveland
4. Jacksonville
5. Baltimore
Bottom five:
1. NY Giants
2. New England
3. Atlanta
4. Carolina
5. Arizona
Top five defensive efficiency (production related to quality of offenses faced):
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Cincinnati
5. Buffalo
Bottom five:
1. Carolina
2. Miami
3. Chicago
4. Washington
5. Arizona
Here’s the model projections this week, 7-5-2 on sides last week (68-71-11/yr.) and 2-0-1 on qualified sides (12-6-1/yr.) with totals going 5-8-1 (83-58-9/yr.) and 1-2 on qualified totals (11-7/yr.) for a combined qualified mark of 23-13–1 (63.9%).
BLT -8 / 38 (-3.5/46 actual)
CLE -3.5 / 37.5 (-1/33)
HOU -9.5 / 44 (-4/49)
LAC -5 / 44 (-3/44)
WSH -7 / 36.5 (-9.5/37)
JAX -7 / 37 (-7/40)
DET -14 / 52.5 (-8/48)
MIA -14 / 48 (-13/46.5)
DAL -15.5 / 47.5 (-10.5/42)
SF -10 / 38 (-11.5/42)
LAR -3.5 / 40 (SEA -1/46.5)
BUF -7 / 37.5 (-7/40)
MIN -3 / 47.5 (DEN -2.5/42.5)
KC -5.5 / 38.5 (-2.5/46)
Continued success.
BLT -8 / 38 (-3.5/46 actual)
CLE -3.5 / 37.5 (-1/33)
HOU -9.5 / 44 (-4/49)
LAC -5 / 44 (-3/44)
WSH -7 / 36.5 (-9.5/37)
JAX -7 / 37 (-7/40)
DET -14 / 52.5 (-8/48)
MIA -14 / 48 (-13/46.5)
DAL -15.5 / 47.5 (-10.5/42)
SF -10 / 38 (-11.5/42)
LAR -3.5 / 40 (SEA -1/46.5)
BUF -7 / 37.5 (-7/40)
MIN -3 / 47.5 (DEN -2.5/42.5)
KC -5.5 / 38.5 (-2.5/46)
Continued success.
Model projections (points, total yards, passing, rushing)
CIN 15.00, 263 (198/65)
BLT 23.00, 406 (233/173)
PIT 17.00, 215 (137/78)
CLE 20.50, 380 (211/169)
AZ 17.25, 327 (187/140)
HOU 26.75, 376 (277/99)
LAC 24.50, 361 (257/104)
GB 19.50, 355 (238/117)
NYG 14.75, 325 (182/143)
WSH 21.75, 349 (257/92)
TEN 15.00, 296 (188/108)
JAX 22.00, 341 (230/111)
CHI 19.25, 301 (170/131)
DET 33.25, 416 (274/142)
LV 17.00, 264 (184/80)
MIA 31.00, 444 (293/151)
DAL 31.50, 321 (221/100)
CAR 16.00, 241 (162/79)
TB 14.00, 289 (215/74)
SF 24.00, 397 (256/141)
SEA 18.25, 341 (238/103)
LAR 21.75, 364 (250/114)
NYJ 15.25, 297 (188/109)
BUF 22.25, 328 (225/103)
MIN 25.25, 430 (297/133)
DEN 22.25, 297 (182/115)
PHI 16.50, 320 (210/110)
KC 22.00, 337 (242/95)
Continued success.
CIN 15.00, 263 (198/65)
BLT 23.00, 406 (233/173)
PIT 17.00, 215 (137/78)
CLE 20.50, 380 (211/169)
AZ 17.25, 327 (187/140)
HOU 26.75, 376 (277/99)
LAC 24.50, 361 (257/104)
GB 19.50, 355 (238/117)
NYG 14.75, 325 (182/143)
WSH 21.75, 349 (257/92)
TEN 15.00, 296 (188/108)
JAX 22.00, 341 (230/111)
CHI 19.25, 301 (170/131)
DET 33.25, 416 (274/142)
LV 17.00, 264 (184/80)
MIA 31.00, 444 (293/151)
DAL 31.50, 321 (221/100)
CAR 16.00, 241 (162/79)
TB 14.00, 289 (215/74)
SF 24.00, 397 (256/141)
SEA 18.25, 341 (238/103)
LAR 21.75, 364 (250/114)
NYJ 15.25, 297 (188/109)
BUF 22.25, 328 (225/103)
MIN 25.25, 430 (297/133)
DEN 22.25, 297 (182/115)
PHI 16.50, 320 (210/110)
KC 22.00, 337 (242/95)
Continued success.
Good luck ERM
