Some quick thoughts on my card....
These plays fall under what I like to refer to as perception...
310 Iowa St. +12
362 Troy +19.5
378 Ohio St. -11
Iowa St. were drilled by North Dakota St. last week at home and now face big, bad Kansas St. and are only getting 12? That is the comment I heard from many this week, which on its face value makes some sense. However, the talent level of NDST is lost on many and the public tends to overreact to happenings from the prior week. I'll take the conference home dog with an inflated line against what I expect to be a Kansas State side that may regress a bit from the previous year.
Similar situation for Troy, who were humbled by over five TD's, yes over five TD's at lowly Alabama-Birmingham last week. That beat down was brewing for some time after Troy's mastery of UAB over the years via blowout, heart-breaker or miraculous comeback. The Blazers throttled them and didn't take their foot off the gas. I expect a far different effort and outcome at home today, where Troy trends to play well, against a regressing Duke side.
Ohio State, jeez people just hate this team. I don't think they are a playoff contender, but they are still a solid football team. many act as if they were a mid-level ACC team. I'm way down on Virginia Tech and expect the Buckeyes to drill the Hokies this evening at the Shoe. The ACC is horrendous, the Hokies should struggle mightily on offense this season and Meyer won't let up or shy away from piling it on VT.
These plays fall under what I like to refer to as perception...
310 Iowa St. +12
362 Troy +19.5
378 Ohio St. -11
Iowa St. were drilled by North Dakota St. last week at home and now face big, bad Kansas St. and are only getting 12? That is the comment I heard from many this week, which on its face value makes some sense. However, the talent level of NDST is lost on many and the public tends to overreact to happenings from the prior week. I'll take the conference home dog with an inflated line against what I expect to be a Kansas State side that may regress a bit from the previous year.
Similar situation for Troy, who were humbled by over five TD's, yes over five TD's at lowly Alabama-Birmingham last week. That beat down was brewing for some time after Troy's mastery of UAB over the years via blowout, heart-breaker or miraculous comeback. The Blazers throttled them and didn't take their foot off the gas. I expect a far different effort and outcome at home today, where Troy trends to play well, against a regressing Duke side.
Ohio State, jeez people just hate this team. I don't think they are a playoff contender, but they are still a solid football team. many act as if they were a mid-level ACC team. I'm way down on Virginia Tech and expect the Buckeyes to drill the Hokies this evening at the Shoe. The ACC is horrendous, the Hokies should struggle mightily on offense this season and Meyer won't let up or shy away from piling it on VT.
Week 2: 6-4, 60.0%, +1.85, ROI: +16.9%
Season: 13-6, 68.4%, +6.70, ROI: +32.0%
Week 2 Selections:
310 Iowa St. +12 - WIN
316 Northwestern -7 - LOSS
317 Central Michigan +3.5 - WIN
320 Army -3.5 - WIN
327 Western Kentucky +6 - LOSS
335 South Alabama -2.5 (-115) - WIN
362 Troy +19.5 - WIN
378 Ohio St. -11 - LOSS
384 Wyoming ML +125 - WIN
385 Colorado St. +11 - LOSS
Season: 13-6, 68.4%, +6.70, ROI: +32.0%
Week 2 Selections:
310 Iowa St. +12 - WIN
316 Northwestern -7 - LOSS
317 Central Michigan +3.5 - WIN
320 Army -3.5 - WIN
327 Western Kentucky +6 - LOSS
335 South Alabama -2.5 (-115) - WIN
362 Troy +19.5 - WIN
378 Ohio St. -11 - LOSS
384 Wyoming ML +125 - WIN
385 Colorado St. +11 - LOSS
Season: 13-6, 68.4%, +6.70, ROI: +32.0%
Week Three Selections:
104 North Texas -4
111 Indiana -6
117 NC State -2.5
135 Iowa St. +12
148 M Tennessee -1
151 Georgia -5.5
153 Arkansas ML +115
166 Idaho -2.5 (-105)
193 USC -17 (-120)
I'll try and get some thoughts on the card as the week progresses.
Best of luck.
Week Three Selections:
104 North Texas -4
111 Indiana -6
117 NC State -2.5
135 Iowa St. +12
148 M Tennessee -1
151 Georgia -5.5
153 Arkansas ML +115
166 Idaho -2.5 (-105)
193 USC -17 (-120)
I'll try and get some thoughts on the card as the week progresses.
Best of luck.
ERock
Any thoughts on an Iowa St letdown after blowing last weeks game to KState? Gotta figure after losing to NDSU, then rallying from down 10 early against KState to taking the lead and holding it until the end of the game has got to take a toll on them. Or is it because you don't think Iowa can score enough to cover the line?
I don't expect a letdown in a rivalry game. This series has been bitterly close and getting 12 points either way would cover nearly 75% of the games played the last 15 years or so. I still think the Cyclones are under valued a bit and last weeks performance was more about them being better than most expected and not Kansas St. being worse than expected. I tend to take DD points in fierce rivalry games because you can usually toss out the records and expect the unexpected.
Iowa's score last week didn't reflect the yards they gained on offense. I think they had over 450 yards to just 219 in that game. Iowa's defense more stout that KSU's in my opinion. Of course this is an in-state rivalry so anything is liable to happen. Plus Iowa is a flaky team. They could win by 3 TD's or lose outright.
Week 3: 4-5, 44.4%, -1.20, ROI: -14.2%
Season: 17-11, 60.7%, +5.50, ROI: +17.2%
Week Three Selections:
104 North Texas -4 - LOSS
111 Indiana -6 - LOSS
117 NC State -2.5 - WIN
135 Iowa St. +12 - WIN
148 M Tennessee -1 - WIN
151 Georgia -5.5 - LOSS
153 Arkansas ML +115 - WIN
166 Idaho -2.5 (-105) - LOSS
193 USC -17 (-120) - LOSS
Season: 17-11, 60.7%, +5.50, ROI: +17.2%
Week Three Selections:
104 North Texas -4 - LOSS
111 Indiana -6 - LOSS
117 NC State -2.5 - WIN
135 Iowa St. +12 - WIN
148 M Tennessee -1 - WIN
151 Georgia -5.5 - LOSS
153 Arkansas ML +115 - WIN
166 Idaho -2.5 (-105) - LOSS
193 USC -17 (-120) - LOSS
Season: 17-11, 60.7%, +5.50, ROI: +17.2%
Week Four Selections:
317 Maryland ML +105
329 Army -2
331 North Carolina ML +110
335 Utah +6
341 Florida Atlantic +4
354 SMU +33
384 Arkansas St. -1.5
391 California +11
394 Boise St. -15.5
I'll try and get some thoughts up on these as the week progresses.
Continued success.
Week Four Selections:
317 Maryland ML +105
329 Army -2
331 North Carolina ML +110
335 Utah +6
341 Florida Atlantic +4
354 SMU +33
384 Arkansas St. -1.5
391 California +11
394 Boise St. -15.5
I'll try and get some thoughts up on these as the week progresses.
Continued success.
