ERockMoney 2014 College Football Outlook

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133. Texas A&M (+10.5) at South Carolina

The game features two of the three best offensive lines in the conference, which says a lot when you’re talking SEC football. The dominance up front for both offenses should produce plenty of success on the ground for both rushing attacks. I’m not as optimistic as most on the Cocks defense, especially early the season. They will progress and still be a solid unit, but a step back from recent years is expected.

A&M’s defensive struggles are well documented, but I anticipate substantial improvement this season. There will be some progression, which is expected with the bulk of the unit returning and expected solid coaching. How much of a progression remains to be seen. More importantly, the defense should be aided by a more “normal/standard” offense with more of a focus on the ground game and ball control. A&M’s offense was one of the fastest scoring offenses last year and was on the field less than 117 other program leaving the defense, already undermanned, to be on the field for incredible amounts of time and plays. This should improve drastically and the expected progression, experience and less time on the field should do wonders for this unit this season.

Texas A&M has certainly lost some big pieces, but this team has reached the point where they are recruiting on par with the SEC elite and have a recruiting resume that more closely resembles Alabama and LSU than even a Georgia or Florida does. The Aggies are loaded with top tier talent all over the field, which doesn’t always correlate to results, but is a strong indicator of a team who has reached the level of reloading versus rebuilding.


The receivers, while inexperienced and young, have the potential to be an outstanding unit. Seals-Jones, Reynolds, Noil and Kennedy could develop into something special, but the quarterback play will need to be there as well, obviously. The South Carolina secondary is suspect and could have fits dealing with this bunch, if, and it’s a big if, Hill can play well and keep his composure in an incredibly hostile environment. Fortunately, he should have excellent protection, which is a must for a young QB.


Williams-Brice Stadium is one of the three or four most difficult places to play IMO, so backing the Aggies is certainly a risk, but at this price a risk I’m willing to take. The Gamecocks for all their success at home are a bit less than a coin flip laying this type of number in conference. I don’t see the Aggies walking away with a victory here, but I expect them to give the Gamecocks all they can handle a stay within single digits.

South Carolina has their own QB issues, albeit on much less of a scale. Thompson showed flashes of brilliance last year, but also showed stretches of incompetence. He appeared lost in two big games he started v UCF and Missouri, but he was the backup, which carries a different mentality. He’s the man now, I expect him to play well, but consistency could be an issue.

Two biggest concerns for me here are the ultra-talented South Carolina offensive line simply wearing a questionable A&M defensive front down with Davis and company and pulling away late. Lastly, I fear Hill just completely succumbing to the pressure, environment, crowd, etc. I expect the A&M offensive front to have similar success pounding the Cocks defensive front, moving the ball on the ground and giving the defense much need rest, which greatly limits my concern on the former, as for the latter, it certainly wouldn’t be shocking. If Hill does fold up, turn the ball over it will likely turn into the Gamecocks rout unless Thompson is equally as terrible, which is unlikely.

Oddly enough, everyone and their mother is on SC, yet the line keeps moving towards the Aggies….

Just my $0.02.

Best of luck with your action.
 

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136. UL-Monroe (-1.5) v Wake Forest

My thoughts on ULM as a bit of a surprise team are posted earlier in this thread (post #20). As for Wake, they are in bad shape, but not quite as bad as many expect. The offense is devoid of talent and will be playing behind a very porous offensive line. The true freshman Wolford gets the nod, but will be working with very limited weapons in the backfield or on the outside.

ULM has a very capable front seven defensively and should be able to control the line of scrimmage versus the Deacons. The Warhawks secondary is the concern of the defense, but I’m not sure Wake will be able to fully take advantage of that.

Defensively, Wake has a paper thin defensive line, which should allow ULM to also control the line of scrimmage offensively behind a serviceable, experienced offensive front. ULM has some experience and talent in the backfield that could exploit Wake’s defensive front if the ULM offensive line wins the line of scrimmage, as expected.

The back seven of the Deacons defense is better than they are given credit, but the LB’s are going to have to provide maximum effort to make up for the lack of protection received from the defensive line. Much like Wake, ULM lacks any serious talent on the outside and the strong Wake secondary should be able to win these battles more often than not.

Lastly, I give ULM a significant advantage on special teams where Wake should have a terrible unit this season. I’m a bit nervous about this selection; as we are still talking about a power conference team here as small dogs away to a Sun Belt team. However, the expected dominance on the both sides of the line for ULM was enough to push me towards a selection.
 

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138. Tulsa (-6.5) v Tulane

In this Big East, err, AAC, err Conference USA V 2.0 matchup we have two conference mates going head to head continuing their rivalry while entering a new conference. Following a theme from my previous selections the expected dominance of Tulsa at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball was the leading factor.


Tulsa was a mess last season, but I expected marked improvement this season. I really like the defense at all levels this season for the Golden Hurricane, which sounds incredibly odd to say, but I expect this unit to skyrocket from their 85[SUP]th[/SUP] ranked defense in 2013. They are stacked on the defensive line and in the secondary and the linebackers are sound.


Offensively, Tulsa will be a work in progress, but I always would prefer a good defense to a good offense. The offensive line should be solid, but I’m not sure what the remainder of the offense will bring to the table. They will be aided in the game by facing what should be a horrendous front seven from the Green Wave. Tulane peaked last season IMO and I don’t see a continued progression and more a culmination of things last season.


Tulane does have a solid secondary, which should control Tulsa on the outside and has a significant advantage on special teams, which is a concern to me. Once again, controlling the line of scrimmage and having the far superior defense has led to the position I’m taking along with the fact I see these programs reverting back to their normal order prior to 2013.


Continued success.
 

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153 UNLV +24

Last play for the week. I was waiting for the 24 at one of my outs. I will post the full card and some thoughts on today's action in a bit.

Best of luck.
 

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One of a select few whom had A&M..great job. The word that jumped out from your conclusion for me was "recruiting".

I learned a lesson last night. Sumlin, along with having a sharp offensive mind, also recruits very well.
 

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Congrats on the nice start last night and BOL to you this year. Enjoy reading your thread weekly. Great insight as always.

WinOne!!
 

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One of a select few whom had A&M..great job. The word that jumped out from your conclusion for me was "recruiting".

I learned a lesson last night. Sumlin, along with having a sharp offensive mind, also recruits very well.

Bobby,

Thank you for stopping by. A&M certainly has the recruiting profile that mirrors and Alabama or LSU, no rebuilding simply reload.

Best of luck with your action.
 

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Congrats on the nice start last night and BOL to you this year. Enjoy reading your thread weekly. Great insight as always.

WinOne!!

WinOne,

I hope all is well my friend. Friday didn't work out as well as Thursday, hopefully today will go a little smoother.

Best of luck with your action.
 

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No new plays added, simply updated record and all plays in one post:

3-2, +0.85

133 Texas A&M +10.5 - WIN
136 ULM -1.5 - WIN
138 Tulsa -6.5 - WIN
150 Colorado -3 (-105) - LOSS
153 UNLV +24 - LOSS
164 UAB -2.5 (-115)
192 USC -21 (-120)
194 Mississippi St. -30.5
206 Tennessee -5.5

Best of luck with your action.
 

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6-2, 75.0%, +3.85

133 Texas A&M +10.5 - WIN
136 ULM -1.5 - WIN
138 Tulsa -6.5 - WIN
150 Colorado -3 (-105) - LOSS
153 UNLV +24 - LOSS
164 UAB -2.5 (-115) - WIN
192 USC -21 (-120) - WIN
194 Mississippi St. -30.5 - WIN
206 Tennessee -5.5

Best of luck with your action.
 

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7-2, 77.8%, +4.85, ROI: +48.5%

133 Texas A&M +10.5 - WIN
136 ULM -1.5 - WIN
138 Tulsa -6.5 - WIN
150 Colorado -3 (-105) - LOSS
153 UNLV +24 - LOSS
164 UAB -2.5 (-115) - WIN
192 USC -21 (-120) - WIN
194 Mississippi St. -30.5 - WIN
206 Tennessee -5.5 - WIN
 

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Posting these again, as the original post was lost....

Season: 7-2, 77.8%, +4.85, ROI: +48.5%

Week 2 Selections:

310 Iowa St. +12
316 Northwestern -7
317 Central Michigan +3.5
320 Army -3.5
327 Western Kentucky +6
335 South Alabama -2.5 (-115)
362 Troy +19.5
378 Ohio St. -11
384 Wyoming ML +125
385 Colorado St. +11

I'll get some thoughts on these selections today/tomorrow.

Best of luck with your action.

Continued success.
 

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ERM............nicely done last week........BOL with this weeks plays............indy
 

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Saturday bump, although it will be down to page 2 again in mere hours. BOL today, 'Rock
 

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