Eafran Soccer September 2009

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Hey guys new to these forums but I have been recently posting my picks on other forums.

Here are the plays for the weekend:

Italy -1/-1.5 (Alternate Line) @ -125

Cyprus/Ireland UNDER 2.5 @ -145

France -1 @ -105

Brazil +0.5 @ -125

Chile -1.5 @ EVEN (ODDMAKERS ERROR GAME!)

Mexico PK @ EVEN

Ecuador +0.5 @ -105

The Italians travel to Tbilisi sitting on top of the table even though they have played less matches. At the moment, scoring is a concern for Italy who were held scoreless in their last matches against Switzerland and Brazil. The Italian squad is heavily dominated by Juventus players and with great reason. The Juventus club has many Italians on their team, all capable of playing at the national level. Juve is fresh off a win away at Roma, so the fact that they are away in this game means absolutely nothing to them. Pirlo will provide experience in the center of the pitch and look for him to grab an assist or two in this game. Regardless of who you put on the field from both of these squads, Italy obviously has the better talent. They aren’t going to let a weaker team like Georgia, who has three points from seven games defeat them. Italy to win this one 2-0.

Ireland will travel to Cyprus on Saturday. I will keep this write-up short and sweet. Ireland doesn’t score goals. They have one goal scorer. His name is Robbie Keane. He is a lethal finisher, but the scoring opportunities never come for him. Maybe if Ireland had better players in their midfield such as Man City’s Stephen Ireland (no pun intended), who turned down a sure starting position on the national team, then Keano would get some help, instead of making his own goals. Ireland’s last match was at home to Australia. It was only a friendly, but it’s worth noting that Ireland did lose 0-3…at home, to a side that really isn’t that strong of a team. Ireland has trouble scoring period, and now they must try and do so away in Cyprus. I see this game ending 0-0/1-1/1-0, either way I am going with the UNDER.

France will host Romania. France sits second in the group, 5 points behind Serbia. What is there to say about France? Nothing. They have been absolutely terrible and furthermore, unimpressive. Their last match was away at Faroe Islands and French fans expected a blowout. What did they get? A narrow 1-0 win. According to French fans, France coach Domenech seems to be the one to blame as he plays a conservative style of football. So one may ask: What’s different now? Well I don’t have an answer for you except that France needs ALL the points against Romania. So maybe Domenech will switch his approach to the game, maybe he won’t. But the players realize that the fans are fed up and the only way to get their fans back is with a solid game against Romania. We will see Henry, we will see Ribery, we may see Benzema. France will have the drive to win this game. My guess? 2-0 France win.

NOTE: Romania will be without star player Adrian Mutu as he is out with a thigh injury.

Argentina vs. Brazil. This is going to be the match with the biggest hype. Brazil will travel to Argentina and many believe it will be tough to play in front of the Rosario crowd. Maradona has already stated that he is going to put most of the responsibility on Messi to lead Argentina to victory. There’s no problem with that except for the fact that he is going to need help. Messi is a phenomenal player, don’t get me wrong, but to put this much responsibility on him to “become a man” on Saturday as Maradona stated? I think it’s just too much. Brazil is undefeated in their last five matches and have only lost once in their last 14 national matches. I personally think the Brazilians will take advantage of Maradona’s questionable coaching. Maradona was an amazing player, but not so much an amazing coach. I think he’s making this game too much about himself and not enough about his team, and that will be his downfall. Brazil is the MUCH better squad and I think they will prove that when they play Argentina.

NOTE: Argentina will be giving Sebastian Dominguez his first cap as well as his teammate Nicolas Otamendi. Napoli’s Datolo will also be making his debut for Argentina.

Chile is undefeated in ’09. The last time Chile and Venezuela met was in Venezuela as Chile went on to win 3-2. Now Venezuela comes to Chile looking for some points. Sadly, they will not get it. Chile has been absolutely impressive in this competition. They find themselves 2nd in the table, just one point behind expected group winner Brazil. They have picked up an impressive 1-0 win against Argentina in late 2008 in this same competition. I don’t see Venezuela hanging with the Chileans here on Saturday. Chile is even at -1.5. This is a treat as I think the Oddmakers have gotten this wrong. Chile win 2-0/3-0/3-1 in my *Oddmaker’s Error Game.*

The Mexico and Ecaudor write-ups will be posted tomorrow morning. Thanks guys and good luck to all!
 

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Thanks guys. Good to see some familiar names here in you Lazy.

Sorry it's short notice, but I am adding:

Egypt ML @ -145 (game starts in 15mins)
Cameroon -0.5 @ +110

Good luck bettors!
 

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Egypt ML @ -145 :: WIN
Cameroon -0.5 @ +110 :: WIN

2-0 to start the day. The run continues! Let's keep up the profit for tonight's games!
 

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Ecuador and Mexico write-ups:

Colombia will host Ecuador tonight. Colombia is 2-2 in this competition in 09, 2-0 at home. The line was at -105 for Ecuador to cover the spread of +0.5 and has since moved to -125 with great reason. Despite what anyone says, Ecuador gives teams a hard time and they will do so once again in Colombia. I think the most important thing to consider here is that the Colombian coach just recently resigned last month due to death threats. I believe this will have a negative impact on the Colombian squad. One last thing is that I watched Ecuador in this same competition vs. Argentina. They absolutely dominated the game and finally scored two second half goals to put the Argentines away. Ecuador has the heart to get a result here.

Mexico is headed to Costa Rica and man will I be watching that game via stream. Mexico has started to find their groove and they will carry their momentum into the Estadio Ricardo Saprissa. The line has seemed to stay the same with Mexico PK at even which seems to imply that bettors are split between these two sides. Costa Rica is coming back home after they were humiliated by the hands of Honduras 0-4. Mexico is coming off two glorious wins over the United States (5-0 away / 2-1 at home). Mexico is playing footy right now and they know they need to concentrate if they want to catch Costa Rica who is occupying the first place position. Mexico is just three points behind them so they know that a loss here will end their chances of winning the group.

NOTE: Mexico will be without star center back Rafael Marquez and without Arsenal striker Carlos Vela. These are two influential players, but I think Mexico gets a result here today.

Good luck bettors!
 

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Italy -1/-1.5 (Alternate Line) @ -125 :: WIN

Cyprus/Ireland UNDER 2.5 @ -145 :: LOST

France -1 @ -105 :: LOST

Brazil +0.5 @ -125 :: WIN

Chile -1.5 @ EVEN (ODDMAKERS ERROR GAME!) :: LOST

Mexico PK @ EVEN :: WIN

Ecuador +0.5 @ -105 :: LOST


Egypt ML @ -145 :: WIN


Cameroon -0.5 @ +110 :: WIN

5-4 on the day for my first bad night in awhile. Let's get back to sweeps tomorrow!
 

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Rough night last night going 5-4. Here's the play for today:

Mali PK @ -130

Mali will travel to Benin today. The last time these two met was in Mali as Mali showed impressive class in a 3-1 win. Mali sits second in the group (5 points behind expected group winners Ghana) and their offense is starting to solidify. They have experienced veterans such as Freddy Kanoute of Sevilla FC who has six goals in this competition, as well as Barcelona’s Seydou Keita who has three goals in this competition. Mali is the more experienced squad and they should have no problem getting a result here. Juventus’ Sissoko is also on this squad but is coming off an injury.

Let's get off on the right foot today. Good luck gents!
 

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Ghana -2
Ghana/Sudan OVER 2.5/3

Ghana will host a weak Sudan side at home. Ghana will obviously win the group and may very well win every group match. They are the top African team in the CAF and they are showing it at the moment sitting 3-0 in first place, five points ahead of Mali. They are a machine at home and it doesn’t look like they will be slowing down any time soon. As I said before, Sudan sits at the bottom of the table with one point from three games. They haven’t the quality that Ghana has, but they will fight for a result as every team does so. The last time these two met, Ghana defeated Sudan 2-0 away, without four of their key players. Now Ghana faces them at home with those players returning. Essien, Muntari, and Appiah will all start tonight as well as Matthew Amoah who leads the team with four goals in this campaign. I like Ghana to win this game 3-0/4-1, which is why I am playing Ghana to cover the spread, as well as the OVER 2.5/3.

Good luck bettors!
 

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I really NEED a late goal in the Ghana game... Hoping its Ghana so you cover too.
 

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5-5-2 on the qualifiers this past weekend. Not good for my standards, so let's get it back!

Northern Ireland/Slovakia UNDER 2.5
Brazil -1 @ +105


Slovakia heads to Windsor Park as they take on 2nd in the group Northern Ireland. The race to finish first is between these two teams and this should nonetheless make the game very interesting. Slovakia sits on top of the table with sixteen points (Northern Ireland fourteen) and they will look to stay on top with a result at Windsor Park on Wednesday. Can they get a result here? Yes. The last time these two met Slovakia came out glorious with a 2-1 win, NI’s only goal being an own goal by Slovakia, even though Northern Ireland dominated in the shot department. Look for Slovakia to clean that up in this game, preventing scoring opportunities for NI. Something about this game stood out at me before the weekend ended, so I had liked this match to begin with. But now, NI striker Kyle Lafferty has been a confirmed scratch from this match as he picked up an injury in NI’s last match against Poland. NI already had trouble scoring goals and now they have even more with the absence of Lafferty. Defenses will prevail in this game. I see Slovakia winning 1-0 or a bore draw. Either way, this one stays UNDER the total.

Brazil is home at Chile on Wednesday. If you read my previews on the weekend, you would know that I had both these teams favored to win their respective games. Well Brazil won, but unfortunately, Chile scraped a point with a home draw to Venezuela, one of the weaker sides in the group. Chile is impressive despite that draw. I am worried about the impact that the team will have without Mancilla. The Venezuela match was Chile’s first match without him and that result was less than desirable. Chile is in second place, three points behind Brazil, so you can expect them to try to play their normal game against Brazil, not changing much in their playing style. They will hope for a result, but sadly they will not get one here on the road to Brazil. Brazil will be Brazil. They will play soccer and they will win at home because they are a quality squad and they love their footy at the moment, especially coming off that huge away win against Argentina. Brazil wins 2-0/3-1 to cover the spread here.

NOTE: Brazilian star forward Robinho will be out of this matchup as he picked up a thigh injury in his last match. I think this will have an effect on Brazil, but they will still get the 2-0 win.

This is it for now, but I will most likely add one or two more. Good luck bettors!
 

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Adding:

Netherlands -0.5 @ +120

Really like this one. Write-up coming later in the evening.
 

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Tricky dude. I don't know about Brazil. All i can tell you is that the game can go both ways (like the Argentina vs Brazil game).
I think Kaka won't be playing either.
You can also argue the fact that Brazil is doing so good that they might relax a bit, especially after that sweet win against my home team.
Winning by 2 is really pushing it for Brazil


On the other hand, i like the Netherlands pick,though i think i'll be staying out considering Netherlands has already qualified and Scotland needs the win

good luck bro
 

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Great insight Martinga. good luck to you as well.

I feel that Brazil can't calm down. Like they just can't stop and won't stop against Chile at home. The fans want a win and that's what Brazil should be thinking as well - to give the fans a show. The Brazil-Argentina game had a lot in favor of Brazil. Also, I feel that Maradona isn't the right man for the job. He made that game too much about him leading up to it. Argentina also had three new players getting the start in the lineup including two in the defense I believe. You want your back four to always stay the same and especially the two center backs. Anyway I knew Brazil had that game...

This one is a little trickier for sure, but I expect Brazil to get three points.

You make a very good argument in the fact that Netherlands already qualified. They may let some other players get some playing time, but I think they would like the accolade of winning EVERY group match as well. I bank on Netherlands to use all their starting players and to treat this game just like the others. Also, look for Scotland to throw players up into the attack to get the win, leaving them super vulnerable on the counter-attack.
 

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Mexico -1 @ -145
Mexico/Honduras OVER 2.5 @ -130

Mexico will host Honduras at the Azteca tonight. Mexico is scoring goals left and right and it seems like they have found their form. They are coming off two impressive wins against USA and one more away to Costa Rica. Spirits are high in Mexico for sure and the fans are loving the way they are playing. Now they are home to Honduras at the Azteca and this game will be no different. Mexico has scored fifteen goals in their last five games which comes out to an average of three goals per game. Honduras comes to Mexico with already two wins against them at home in this campaign. Mexico will be looking to avenge those two losses to Honduras and they will tonight. It’s also worth noting that Honduras has scored a combined eight goals in their last two matches and the last time these two met in Honduras, the game finished 3-1. Mexico carries their form to Azteca in front of the fans tonight. Mexico wins 3-1 for the cover and the OVER.
 

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Northern Ireland/Slovakia UNDER 2.5 :: WIN
Brazil -1 @ +105 :: WIN
Holland -0.5 @ +120 :: WIN
Mexico -1 @ -145 :: PUSH
Mexico/Honduras OVER 2.5 @ -130 :: LOST

3-1-1 on the night. Good overall day for me and USA even won so I am pretty happy. See you all for EPL this weekend.
 

Oh boy!
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Northern Ireland/Slovakia UNDER 2.5 :: WIN
Brazil -1 @ +105 :: WIN
Holland -0.5 @ +120 :: WIN
Mexico -1 @ -145 :: PUSH
Mexico/Honduras OVER 2.5 @ -130 :: LOST

3-1-1 on the night. Good overall day for me and USA even won so I am pretty happy. See you all for EPL this weekend.

Easy money. Glad to see you won today.

:toast:
 

Virtus Junxit Mors Non Separabit
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awesome run eafran

QL, when did you move to Scottsdale?

We should get a drink, ill be visiting family first week of October
 

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