drunken MLB June-July

[drunkguy]

OK, picking back up...

1st half: 139-157 +16.51

Thursday. All lines are current at pinnacle:

Minnesota -127 (2 units)

Lohse has been much improved over his last 3 starts, with a 1.35 WHIP and a 2.18 ERA, including a 12-0 win against KC in his last start in which he allowed only 6 hits (and no walks) over 9 innings. KC offense has been slumping (batting .200 vs righties in their last 10). KC bullpen is absolutely horrendous, and I give them little chance of pulling this off, even with their best pitcher on the mound. This also fits into my starting pitcher system which is 57-26 this year, +22.95 units.

Cleveland +116

Indians have the slightly better starter and the better hitting. Neither bullpen is much to get excited about lately.

Chicago white sox +110

See above. Neither team playing terrific ball at the moment, but I will take the slightly better starter.

Anaheim -123

Anaheim has the better pitching, which should be the key. Washburn is pitching 0.98 WHIP and 2.53 ERA over his last 3. Bullpen has 0.86 WHIP and 1.25 ERA over their last 3. Boston can hit well against lefties, which may spell some trouble for Washburn, but Lowe has been struggling and the Angels should have no problem getting the runs in.

New York Mets -123

Traschel has been terrific lately, with a 1.00 WHIP and 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, two of thoise against the Yankees. The Nets have had no problem with lefties lately, batting .310 against southpaws in their last 10. Add in home field and the Mets have a nice advantage here.

Milwaukee +180

Prior is tough to fade, but Davis is a good pitcher as well, with a 1.33 WHIP and 3.46 ERA on the season. Chicago has had trouble hitting lefties (.239 on the season, .194 their last 10), so the Brewers should be able to stay in this one.

SF-Colorado over 13 -115

Neither pitcher is very good, both teams should be able to generate some runs, and in the Coors air, this should sail well over the total.

Los angeles +141

Weaver has had a good year statistically, although he has not been getting the wins. Dodgers hit well against lefties, so that might counter some of Randu johnson's edge. The difference in bullpens is big though, and I think this is what will make the difference. If the Dodgers can keep it close until the relievers come in, they should have an excellent chance at winning.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 3-5 -3.28

YTD: 142-162 +13.23

Friday:

Los angeles -122

Arizona hitting .144 vs lefties over their last 10, .237 on the season. Ishii has a 1.11 WHIP over his last 3, and the bullpen has been fantastic.

Cleveland +108

Lee is 9-1 this year and Cleveland can hit.

System Play: (57-27, +21.71 this year): Atlanta -163

 

[drunkguy]

running a little late, will update later or the 7 PM games

Milwaukee -108
Baltimore +100

System Play: Hou -147

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-1 -0.63 (Cleveland was no action - pitching change)

YTD: 143-163 +12.6 units

The rest of Saturday's card:

Cleveland/Seattle over 8 -115

Both starters and both bullpens have struggled lately. Both starters have WHIPs of 2.00 or more and ERAs over 9.00 over their last 3. In the same span, the bullpens have ERAs of 8.37 and 10.17.


Atlanta-Montreal under 8 -105
Montreal +190

Armas has a 1.06 WHIP and 0.53 ERA over his last 3, all of which have gone under. Ortiz is 6-11 under this year, and neither team is great offensively. The umpire Iassogna is also 3-1 under his last 4.

SF-Colorado over 11.5 +100
Colorado +170

I think some runs will be scored against Schmidt, and more importantly the bullpen, at Coors field. Schmidt's last appearance at Coors was a 8-6 loss for the Giants. I think this will be a high scoring game which Colorado will have a chance to win in the late innnings.



SYSTEM PLAY: Atlanta -200 (I am posting this for information only but I AM NOT playing it - in fact, I am going against it as noted above). System is now 57-28 +20.08 units, but has lost its last 3.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-5-1 -3.55

YTD: 145-168 +9.05

Sunday:

Milwaukee +183

Capuano is not a bad pitcher and the Cubs have struggled against lefties. This should be a low scoring game and the line is just too inflated.

Los angeles -133

Lima is by far the superior pitcher, and LA also has the edge in hitting and bullpen.

Anaheim +139

Lackey pitching well over his last 3 starts (2-0, 1.07 WHIP, 2.89 ERA). Anaheim has the edge in hitting and relievers that have been nearly unhittable. At home, this line is way too high.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-1 +1.83

YTD: 147-169 +10.88

Monday, as usual overnight lines from pinny. Looks like it's going to be a massive card from me today:

Montreal +164
Montreal-Pittsburgh under 9 -111

Biddle is 1-4 this year, but only has one start, the rest were in relief. That was a win over Pittsburgh 9 days ago, in which he gave up only 2 hits in 5 innings, for a WHIP of 0.60, and no runs. Fogg is no monster, with a 1.48 WHIP and 5.97 ERA on the season. I will take a shot and hope Biddle can repeat his last performance. I will also go with the under, with the anemic Montreal offense.

Los Angeles -111

Alvarez was relegated to relief throughout June, but is undefeated in his 2 starts in July, including a win against Houston in which he gave up only 3 hits, 2 walks and 1 run in 6 innnings. For the season he has a WHIP of 1.05. Duckworth doesn't have a win in his only 3 starts since May (and has only pitched in one game since June 7), most recently giving up 7 hits and 3 runs in 3.2 innnings to the Dodgers. LA has the better hitting and a tough bullpen as well.

San Diego -113
San Diego-Colorado over 14 +103

Stark is absolutely horrible, going 0-4 with a 2.52 WHIP and 9.78 ERA over 5 starts. He can't even blame that on Coors field, because 4 of those starts have been on the road. Valdez is not a great pitcher either, but a little more manageable, especially with his relievers. In any case, offense shouldn't be much of a problem in this one.

Tampa Bay +128

Graman is coming back form the minors. He pitched twice in April for the Yanks, showing 4.2 very unimpressive innings (one start, one relief) in which he accrued a WHIP of 2.36 and an ERA of 11.57. Rob Bell has started twice in the last month, including an impressive 7-inning 2-hitter against Baltimore last time out. The D-Rays are undefeated in his last 3 starts, in which he pitched his way to a 1.04 WHIP and 3.12 ERA. Tampa actually has fared better when facing lefties this year, and their recent return to earth means the value is starting to appear on their side again.

Kansas City -1.5 +200

I came into the season having high hopes for Ponson, but he really proved me wrong, going 3-12 so far. Neither pitcher is very good in this matchup, but I think the key stat is the normal potent Orioles' offense has struggles against lefties, hitting only .240 this year, a .054 drop from their average against righties. I see this as a high-scoring game and I will take a shot with what I see as a live home dog on the runline.


SYSTEM PLAY: (57-29 +18.63) Chicago Cubs -133

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 6-2 +4.62

YTD: 153-171 +15.5

Only one play I like for Tuesday:

Chicago White Sox +103

Garland is by far the better pitcher here, and that alone should be enough for the Sox to take this one.

SYSTEM PLAY: (57-30 +17.3) Baltimore -123

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-1 dead even

Wednesday, another pretty big card with 6 handicapped plays and 2 system plays:

Cincinatti +150

both pitchers have been decent statistically, but Clement has not been getting the wins. Cinci's bullpen i s a bit of a problem, but not enough to justify a line this high.

Florida +126

Burnett is pitching just as good as Milwood as far as stats go, but hasn't been getting the breaks to get any wins (Florida is 1-8 in his starts). He has a great WHIP (1.07 over last 3, 1.24 on the year) and a competent bullpen to back him up. Florida hits better than the Phils, especially lately, so I have to make Florida a slight favorite here.

Milwaukee +166

Santos the slightly better pitcher this year, and lots of value due to the Cardinals being on a run.

Houston -135

Houston is superior in just about every matchup I can see, and Webb has been absolutely horrible as a starter. Pettite not pitching as well as normal, but should still be enough to take down the ice-cold D-backs.

Baltimore +225

Playing this on value alone. Baltimore has a 4-2 edge when playing Boston this year, and Pedro is responsible for 2 of those Boston losses. In fact, Pedro is 1-5 against Baltimore going back to Sept 2002.

Cleveland -1.5 +182

Cliff Lee has been very tough this year, with a 10-1 record. The Tribe is 14-5 in his starts, and only 2 of those wins have been by 1 run. I only give a slight edge to Cleveland in winning this game, but if they do win, I can see it being by a substantial margin.


SYSTEM PLAYS: (58-30 +18.3 units): New York Mets -155 and Minnesota -152

 

[jwunderdog]

I haven't been paying attention. What are these system plays?

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 4-4 +1.25
YTD: 158-176 +16.75

Thursday:

I don;t see anything that looks particularly appealing today. There are a bunch of system plays, so I will just stick to them.

SYSTEM PLAYS: (60-30, +20.3)Four plays today:

STL -114
PHI -122
CLE -109
SAN FRAN -172.

 

[drunkguy]

In a hurry, will update record tomorrow

Tampa Bay +120

Bell has a 1.02 WHIP and 3.78 ERA over his last 3. Toronto bats slumping .217 vs righties over last 10.

MInnesota +120

Mulholland has been on fire, 2-0 over his 3 starts since being bumped up to starter, 1.10 WHIP and 3.12 ERA, against DET, DET, ARI. Baltimore hits much worse against lefties. Ponson has struggles badly this year.

Detroit +107

Johnson last 3: 2-1, 0.84 WHIP, 1.44 ERA against MIN, MIN, NYY. Over last 3 Det bullpen has been great, 0.79 WHIP and 0.64 ERA over 14 innings.

Montreal +135

Biddle has been great as a starter, 1-0 (team won both of his starts), 0.80 WHIP, 1.80 ERA, both against PIT. Montreal hitting .280 vs lefties in their last 10.

Cincinatti -103

Harang pitching great his last 3 : 2-0 (team won all 3) 1.15 WHIP, 1.35 ERA, against MIL, MIL, CLE.


I would just like to note that Cormier (starting for Arizona today) has a 47.25 ERA

 

[drunkguy]

YTD: 160-180 +11.04

Sunday:

Philly +120

Milton is 11-2 this year and Chicago doesn't hit lefties left. Prior is coming off elbow injury.

NY Yankees -115

I rarely play the Yanks, but Contreras has really picked up lately (0.78 WHIP and 1.25 ERA over his last 3). The porice is finally small enough to lay here.


SYSTEM PLAY: Cleveland -165

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-1 +1.05

YTD: 162-184 +12.09

Monday:

Philadelphia +111

Milwood is 2-0 his last 3 starts, while Burnett is 0-2 and 1-5 on the year. In fact the Marlins have only won once in Burnett's 10 starts this year, a 3-2 victory over Tampa Bay on 7/4. Florida batting has been streaky and Philly bullpen has been very good.

Milwaukee +127

Clement is 0-2 over his last 3 with a 1.47 WHIP. Santos is 1-1 in that same span, with a 1.02 WHIP. Milwaukee bullpen also on fire lately with a 0.99 WHIP in their last 3.

Detroit +141

Lee is great but overvalued here. Maroth has really picked up, with a 0.88 WHIP and 3.32 ERA over his last 3, including a 1-hitter against the Yankees. Detroit also hitting marginally better against lefties this year. If needed, the Cleveland bullpen is always there to give up some late runs.

Texas +125

Drese is 2-0 over his last 3 (Texas won all 3), with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.25 ERA. This includes a 7-innning 3-2 win over the Angels (5 hits, 2 ER) in his last outing. Escobar has struggled this year and both teams can hit the ball. Texas has also beaten Anaheim 6 out of 9 meetings this year.

Seattle +190

Blackely looked a little better in his last start, a 6-5 win over Oakland in which he gave up 5 hits and 3 runs in 5 innnings. He faced Zito in that game, who gave up 9 hits and 5 runs over 5 innings. In fact, Zito is 0-3 against Seattle going back to last season, and he is not having a banner year. This line is just too big to pass up.


SYSTEM PLAY: (62-33, +18.27): Chicago White Sox -139

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-4 -1.73
YTD: 164-188 +10.36

Tuesday:

New York Mets -112

Glavine is pitching a 1.10 WHIP and 2.60 ERA this year. Day's WHIP is 2.29 over his last 3. Mets have been slumping (especially their bullpen), so they are undervalued here.

Baltimore +121

Both starters pitching about even this year. Baltimore is at home and has the better bats. Baltimore bullpen also on fire with a 0.96 WHIP over their last 3.


SYSTEM PLAY (62-34 +16.9): San Francisco -118, Chicago White Sox -112

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 2-1 +0.88 (Baltimore PPD)

YTD: 166-189 +11.24

Wednesday:

Montreal -111

Armas has only give up 5 runs in his last 5 starts (22 innnings pitched). Montreal batting better (.297 vs righties over last 10). Mets are struggling (2-8 over their last 10) and the bullpen has been getting killed (2.40 WHIP and 11.16 ERA over last 3).

Baltimore +202

Borkowski hasn't looked terrible in his 3 starts, with a 1.29 WHIP. Baltimore has enough offense to keep in this one.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-0 +3.02

YTD: 168-189 +14.26

Thursday:

Montreal +127

Biddle has been great since moving to the starter role, going 2-0 (Monreal won all 3, vs PIT, PIT, FLA) with a very respectable 1.06 WHIP and 2.25 ERA. Tough to go against Leiter, but the mets are slumping hard (3-7 their last 10), so the home dog is worth a shot.

Los Angeles -118

Alvarez is undefeated in his 5 starts since being brought up from the bullpen. In his 9 starts this year he has a 1.03 WHIP and 3.40 ERA. Wright has only pitched one game for Colorado, an 8-2 win in which he gave up 5 hits and 1 ER in 5 innings, but against a weak arizona team. His WHIP in that game is 1.80 due to giving up 4 walks. LA has the better starter, a much better bullpen, and the price is a little overinflated here due to losing the last 2 in this series.

Oakland +105

Dickey has been pitching absolutely horrible lately, with a 2.03 WHIP and 13.14 ERA over his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 against Oakland this year, giving up 17 hits and 13 runs over 10 innings against the As. Texas is also in a huge hitting slump, batting .168 vs righties in their last 10. Oakland is hitting well and has the much better bullpen.

NO system plays today

 

[drunkguy]

yesterday: 2-1 +1.03

YTD: 170-190 +15.29

Friday:

Philadelphia +158

Milton has been absolutely on fire lately. He is undefeated in his last 6 starts and has only lost 1 of his last 12. The Phillies are 10-2 in those games. In his last 3 starts he faced the cubs, atlanta, and new york and pitched a 0.65 WHIP and 2.91 ERA. His last start was against the Cubs, where he pitched 8.2 innings, giving up only 3 hits and 2 runs, all in the 9th inning (he has a 1-walk no hitter up to that point). I had Milton in that game and I wil take him again, as the Cubs have been terrible against lefties this year (hitting .230 for the year, .194 in their last 10 games). I may also take a strong look at the under on this game when it comes out, although I don't think I will have time to post it.

Houston -103

Harang is not a particularly strong pitcher, with a WHIP of 1.56 on the year. Munro is a bit better on paper. Cincinatti also ina terrible slump right now (2-8 their last 10), and I give the hitting and bullpen edges to the Astros as well. Houston is a bit underrated in this spot.


Boston -119

Arroyo has been improving, with 2 3-hit games before his 10 hit meltdown against the Yankees. Lohse has been below average.

No qualifiers for my system plays today.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-1 +0.00 (Houston cancelled)

YTD: 171-191 +15.29

Saturday:

Montreal +162

Neither pitcher looking hot, Montreal hitting .324 vs righties over their last 10 and are 7-3. I see no reason for the line to be this high

Baltimore +210

Baltimore has the bats to do some damage and Vazquez has finally looked vulnerable lately (1.56 WHIP and 7.56 ERA over last 3). Yanks only hitting .179 vs lefties their last 10.


SYSTEM PLAY (63-35 +16.78): Tampa Bay +102, Boston -105, Cleveland -140

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-3 -0.81

YTD: 173-195 +14.48

No time for write-ups today:

Pittsburgh +150
Baltimore +175

SYSTEM PLAYS (64-37 +15.35): Atlanta -140

only looked at the games at 3 PM or earlier maybe back for more later

 

[drunkguy]

Adding on:

St Louis +136

One more system play: San Diego -143