drunken MLB June-July

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-2 +0.29
YTD: 117-121 +27.88

Tuesday. I see 3 huge dogs that I think represent some very good value plays. If any 1 hits I will be about even on the day:

Pittsburgh +201

Benson has pitched well over his last 3, with a 0.74 WHIP and a 3.10 ERA in 20 innings against Anaheim, Oakland and Chicago. Oswalt has actually been a little off orm lately, and Pittsburgh also has the better offense. I would be a little concerned about the Pirates bullpen (and I might even add to this play on the 5-inning line), but 2-1 is just way too much of an overlay here.

Minnesota +212

Pure value play. Lohse is pitching well with a 1.05 ERA over his last 3. Just too much value to pass on.

Cleveland +172

I can't make a case for elarton being a great pitcher, but he was certainly hurt by Coors and his supporting staff when he was on colorado earlier this year. Again, a lot of value with a good hitting team.

 

[drunkguy]

no plays yesterday. Tuesday 0-3 -3.00
YTD: 117-124 +24.88

Thursday - gonna hit some pinny overnights again

Cleveland -104 (2 units)

Westbrook has been having a great year, with a 1.18 WHIP and 2.98 ERA (last 3 - 0.95 WHIP and 2.05 ERA, including a no-run 4-hit complete game against Baltimore). Meanwhile Rauch has only one start in which he gave up 10 hits and 5 runs in 3.2 innings against Anaheim. The offenses are virtually even and the Indian's bullpen has been effective.

Seattle -114

Piniero has been great in his last 3 starts (0.75 WHIP and 1.13 ERA). Benoit meanwhile, has had a tough year. He started 8 games, and while 2-1, he has given up 26 runs in 42.2 innings. Texas has slight offensive edge, but not enough to make up for the pitching matchup.

Detroit -105

Robertson has been pitching real well (0.79 WHIP and 1.99 ERA last 3 starts). Detroit also offensive edge but bullpen could be a concern.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 2-0 +2.4
YTD: 120-126 +25.06

an early one for Saturday:

New York/New York UNDER 9.5 -115

Lieter is 1-9 under this year.


back later with the rest

 

[cashflowmatters]

Is there a problem with off shore forum? I can't pull it up. Thanks and good luck. CASH

 

[drunkguy]

OGD, you mean? I haven't been able to access since yesterday

Adding just one more for tonight:

San Diego -105

This is a fairly evenly-matched game, but I think the pitching edge and hitting edge is in San Diego's favor.

 

[drunkguy]

two late additions:

Colorado +151
Kansas City +127

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: at least 3 losses, still have SD pending. Will update records in my next post.

For Sunday - using current lines from Pinnacle:

Cincinatti -1.5 +132


Starting pitcher is very lopsided in favor of the Reds. Wilson has been great, going 7-1 so far this season. Fogg has a season WHIP of 1.60 wuth an ERA of 6.85 (over last 3 starts, his WHIP is 2.15 and ERA is 10.38). Cinci does give something up on offense and the relievers, but with home field and a big difference in starting pitcher, they should pull out a big win.

Cleveland -1.5 +176

Jennings has not pitched well at all this year. Elarton is not much better, but Cleveland has the offensive edge as well as home field. This should be a high scoring game, so I will play on the runline.

Atlanta -106

riley is 1-3 this year. He has given up a total of 15 runs in his last 3 starts, all losses for Baltimore. He gave up 6 runs in 2 innings vs. the Yanks in his last start. Wright has been pitching well, with a 1.13 WHIP and 1.93 ERA over his last 3 starts. Although the O's have the offensive edge, Atlanta has actually hit better against lefties this year.

Texas +108 (1st 5)

Drese has a 0.98 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Texas also hitting better and at home. I am leery of the Texas bullpen, so I am only going ot play the 1st 5.

New York Mets +148 (Game 1)

Traschel the better pitcher and Contreras has just not been good this season. Mets are batting .281 vs righties in their last 10 and theiur relievers are at least decent enough to kep them in it until the end.

San Diego -1.5 +186

Eaton has a 0.80 WHIP and 1.35 ERA over his last 3, and has given up only 11 hits and 3 ER during that period. San Diego hitting 0.296 vs lefties this year (and .357 while on the road vs southpaws) and also has a great bullpen (1.18 WHIP and 2.40 ERA)

 

[drunkguy]

Saturday: 0-4 -4.19
Sunday: 3-3 +1.62

YTD: 123-133 +22.49

For Monday. Cannot log on to pinny at the moment, I will use overnights from olympic instead:

Kansas City -1.5 +190

Pitchers are fairly even in my view, but May is 3-0 over his last 3. Bedard has a low ERA but has been giving up a lot of bases (WHIP of 1.67), so I think that he is probably slightly overrated and those bases are going to catch up with him soon. KC has hit better against lefties during the season, and the Baltimore relievers have been coming up short lately (7.56 ERA over their last 3). I think if KC wins it will be by a large margin, so I am playing the alt runline.

Montreal +187

I rate the pitchers as fairly even. Phi is only batting .212 vs righties over their last 10 and the Montreal bullpen has been on fire with a combined 1.18 WHIP over their last 3 games. montreal is definitely the value side.

Florida -123

Way too cheap a price for Penny. He may be only 7-5 on the year, but has a WHIP of 1.13 and an ERA of 2.65, much better numbers than Thomson, who is 0-3 his last 3 starts with a 1.85 WHIP and 9.77 ERA. Florida also superior on offense and in the bullpen.

San diego -140

Wells has been nearly unhittable this year. Reynolds is scheduled to start for Arizona, his first start off injury. Reynolds looked good in his last start at AAA ball, allowing only 3 hits in 7 innnings. But in Spring training he had a 14.02 ERA. I expect his first start will not be great, and think San Diego has the advantage in every spot.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-2 -0.23 (LA game no action - pitching change)

YTD: 125-138 +20.03

Wednesday:

Montreal +129

Getting the better all-around pitching (starter and bullpen). Montreal was able to get 8 runs and 7 hits against a better pitcher yesterday (Milton).

New York Mets -113

Glavine has a 0.98 WHIP and a 2.11 ERA on the season, and Cinci does not hit well against lefties (.233 on the season). Mets laso have a much better bullpen - Cinci relievers have an ERA of 9.53 and WHIP of 2.03 over their last 3.

Texas -126

Rogers much superior pitcher. Rangers also have better offense.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 2-1 +1.16

YTD: 127-139 +21.19

Thursday (lines from pinny):

Houston +165

surprisingly, this matchup is close to even statistically. Lots of expectation that Prior will be dominant, but the line is big enough to bite on with Houston

Los Angeles +152

Schmidt has been pitching great and is tough to go against. However Lima shouldn't be overlooked and LA has just about everything else in their favor other than the starter.

San Diego -120

This is a big pitching mismatch with Valdez a much better starter than Fossum. The Padres hit well against lefties (.287 on the season) and also has a much better bullpen. This is a great value at -120.

Chicago White Sox +154

Sanatana has put up some good numbers - 0.54 WHIP and 1.96 ERA over his last 3, but that was against Milwaukee (twice) and Montreal. He will be facing a CWS team that is hitting 0.294 against lefties this season. For the season, Garland and Sanatana are about on par with each other.

Baltimore -112

Baltimore has just about everything going for them here and I was surprised to see the line open this low. Grienke has pitched well (1.05 WHIP, 3.48 ERA), but hasn't gotten the run support to win the games (he is 1-4 on the season). This game also fits into a starting pitcher system that is +18 units on the season.

 

[drunkguy]

Adding a couple. This is turning into a pretty big card for me:

Milwaukee +100
Milwaukee over 13.5 -102

Stark has been sitting in the minors since April 16, when he gave up 9 hits and 11 runs in 2.1 innings vs. St Louis. His previous start produced 10 hits and 7 runs in 6.0 innings. Keep in mind both of these starts were on the road, so he can't blame Coors field. Santos meanwhile is 6-3, and over his last three he is 2-1 with a 0.98 WHIP and 3.31 ERA. Also, with Stark pitching at Coors, the over is another good play.

Anaheim -137

Washburn is 1-0 over his last 3 with a 0.53 WHIP and 0.60 ERA. Note that this was against some decent batting teams (LA, HOU, PIT). Saarloos has just been called up from the minors and may run into some trouble against the hot-hitting Angels.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 5-3 +2.49

YTD: 132-142 +23.68

Friday. Saw a ton of value yesterday, don't see too much today. There are 3 games that I se as a slight overlay, but still enough to play on:

Chicago White Sox +139

Quite honestly, I see this as a very close matchup, and will take the +139 as an overlay.

Arizona +105

Arizona at home with the better pitcher (though not by much), offenses and bullpen fairly even. Arizona is getting some extra value due to the fact that they are 1-9 their last 10, so I see a slight overlay with the home dog.

Oakland +109

Like the last 2 games, I see this as a very even matchup except for a slight edge to Oakland because of Redman. Another small overlay.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 0-3 -3.00

YTD: 132-145 +20.68

Tampa Bay +140

Zambrano is unbeaten in his last 9 starts. Batters are hitting only .207 against him. Penny has been in a major slump (1-4 with a 4.59 era over his last 6 starts) and the Marlins are only 8-8 with him as a starter this year.

Baltimore +140

Bedard is a surprising 2-0 over his lkast 3 starts (against the Yankees, Dodgers, and Royals) - over that time he has given up only 3 earned runs for a 1.10 ERA.

Cleveland +150

Elarton hasn't had a decision in his four starts with Cleveland, but over his last three has a 1.13 WHIP and 3.38 ERA and has given up only 4 hits in those 10.2 innings. Wilson is 0-2 in his last 3 starts.

Detroit-Colorado over 13 +100

Over their last 10, these teams are batting .314 (Det) and .275 (Col), and the pitchers are both hittable. Add in Coors field and this game should have plenty of offense.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-2 +0.4

YTD: 134-137 +21.08

Sunday: will be taking Monday off, so happy fourth to everyone. Overnight lines from Pinny.

Toronto -134

Shawn Hill looked absolutely horrible in his first start vs philly, giving up 8 ER 4 walks and 7 hits in 2.2 innings. Lilly has not been great this seaosn, but is still 7-4. MOntreal only hitting .230 vs lefties this year.

Chicago Cubs +110

Rusch the better pitcher (1.05HIP over last 3), white sox hitting .195 vs lefties their last 190.

 

[drunkguy]

Sunday: 1-1 -0.24

YTD: 135-148 +20.84

Tuesday. current lines from pinnacle:

Detroit +188

Johnson and Mussina are about statistically even this year. However, over their last 3, Johnson is much superior, with a 0.83 WHIP and 3.13 ERA compared to Mussina's 1.44 WHIP and 7.31 ERA. Detroit is also batting .316 against righties over their last 10.

Baltimore -127

Lopez the better pitcher in this matchup (last 3: 0.98 WHIP and 2.95 ERA). Batting and bullpen are about even, but I like the Os with home field and the better pitcher.

Anaheim +139

Garcia is a slightly better pitcher, but otherwise this matchup looks dead-even from here, so i will play the overlay with the dog.

KC +198

Value play. Greinke has pitched well this year but hasn't gotten the run support. Santana has been red hot lately, but the line is just too inflated (probably because KC is 1-9 in their last 10).

 

[BlackampGold]

DG - On B-more and will be on KC as well. I agree too much value with Grienke, KC has had some success versus Santana so maybe they can squeak it out in a pitcher's duel. Going to see if the line will go any higher. Good luck!

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 2-2 +1.00
YTD: 137 -150 +21.84

Wednesday:

Colorado +134

Kennedy has been great this year, pitching a 1.39 WHIP and 3.95 ERA, even when 10 of his 17 starts were at Coors. I rate the offenses (against lefties) and bullpens at about even, so I have no problem taking the better pitcher as a dog.

Oakland +204

This line is entirely overinflated and a value play. Pedro is a great pitcher, but Oakland has entirely too much going for them to be 2-1 dogs.

 

[drunkguy]

Threw up a goose egg yesterday 0-2 -2.00

YTD: 137-152 +19.84

Thursday:

Cleveland -103

Cleveland has edge on offense and bullpen, as well as home field. Neiother starter is great and I expect it to be an offensive battle, although I give the pitching edge to Elarton as well.

Oakland +223

Similar to yesterday, I am playing the As for value alone. Harden has struggled, but the line is just entirely too high.

Tampa Bay +152

Starting pitchers are almost identical statistically, one notable exception is Zambrano's 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. I think Tampa matches up pretty well here, and I will continue to fade the overrated Contreras.

 

[drunkguy]

Correction - pitching change last night in the colorado game makes me 0-1 -1.00 yesterday

YTD: 137-151 +20.84

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 0-3 -3.03
YTD: 137-154 +17.81

No time for writeups as I have a plane to catch to Canadia. These will be my last picks before the allstar break.

Tampa Bay +215
Pittsburgh -130
NYM/FLA OVER 8 -105
Milwaukee -130
Texas +140