drunken MLB June-July

[drunkguy]

time to start a new thread...

yesterday 3-3 +1.47

YTD: 90-93 +24.25

Thursday - got a lot to do tomorrow, so I am going to post some overnights. All lines from Pinnacle at time of posting:

Pit +121

Pit has the edge pitching, hitting, and with home field. Bullpen has been a little rough lately, but should be enough to pull it out.

Tampa Bay +165

You'll rarely find the D-Rays with a statistical advantage, but they do have the edge in this game. Both pitchers are struggling, which leads me to think that this could be anyone's game. We have 2 lefty starters in this game, and surprisingly, Tampa is hitting just as well against lefties this season as Minnesota. In fact, Tampa is hitting .323 against lefties over their last 10. The Tampa bullpen has obviously been trouble, but that is more than compensated for in the line.

Cleveland +134

Cliff Lee is 5-0, and Cleveland is 7-3 in his 10 starts this year. He is putting up the same kind of numbers as his opponent Escobar. Anaheim has not had tremendous success against lefties (batting .243 over their last 10 games), so I give the offensive advantage to Cleveland. Again, the bullpen could be a problem, but we have seen some improvement there as well.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-2 -0.35

YTD: 91-95 +23.9

Friday. Been stuck in a rut lately...my net units haven't really changed since mid-May. Better than losing, I guess. I see a lot of value on today's card, though:

Pittsburgh +195

Mark Prior's first start of the season coming off DL. I think this line is overinflated. First, we have no idea how Prior will do in his first start against a very good hitting team (PIT .294 on the season against righties). Secondly, he will be on a pitch count, meaning he may get pulled early and may make the bullpen work harder than usual. The price is obviously based on the fact that Prior is starting, but I don't think he will be good enough or last long enough for this large of a line. Fogg started off rough, but has gotten better, winning his last 3 starts.

Florida +100

The Marlins have the superior pitching and the better offense. Florida is 8-2 when Pavano starts. At even money, it makes this a simple handicap.

Cincinatti -1.5 +129

Acevedo has been great, with a 0.95 WHIP and 1.35 ERA over his last 3 starts. Montreal (.239 vs. righties) will have a tough time getting on base. I look for Montreal to be held to very little run production, giving Cincinatti a chance for a big win.

Los Angeles -131

I rarely play favorites in baseball, but LA just have everything in their favor today. LAD are 7-3 when Ishii starts, Arizona is 0-4 when Fossum pitches. Two lefties on the mound, but the Dodgers have a 35 point advantage in batting average against lefties. LA also better bullpen, so I think that this is actually a great value on the favorite.

Texas Rangers +180 (2 units)

This has to be one of the most far-off lines I have seen in awhile. Texas either has the statistical edge or is essentially even with the Yanks nearly across the board. Kevin Brown has been terrific, but I rate Rogers only slightly lower than him. I see this as more like a 50-50 proposition and see this as a very good play.

Detroit +131

Detroit has the better pitching and the much better offense. Tigers batting .372 against righties over their last 10. This is close to an even matchup and +131 is rnough for me to take Detroit.

 

[drunkguy]

last time (Friday): 3-3 -0.05

YTD: 94-98 +23.85

still moving sideways. I didn't see a whole lot of value over the weekend, so I took some time off, but interleague is one of my favorite times, and I expect I will see a lot of plays over the next two weeks. Don't have time to post tomorrow, so i wil play some overnights.

San Diego +183
San Diego-Boston under 8 -101

As usual, Pedro is overrated, and though Garciaparra may finally return, this line is still out of whack. Wells has been pitching great, with an ERA close to 1.00 on the season. Staistically, he is pitching much better than Pedro, except in the win column. Boston has an offensive edge, but remember that san diego now has the advantage of a DH. Both bullpens are solid and this should be a low scoring game, and I give San Diego at least a reasonable chance to win it.


I am probably going to make a play on Tampa Bay, but need to see the line. Also a few games where the line is not where I want it yet, but I may add them if I get a move in my favor and have time tomorrow afternoon.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-1 dead even

YTD: 95-99 +23.85

For Wednesday. I finally see some decent plays, and this looks to be one of my heaviest days of the season. After looking at the lines and matchups the past week or so, I am starting to think that the value is lying more with the favorites now, so I may open up on some of those this week. May have some more plays later in the day tomorrow.

St Louis +151

Prior looked good last time out, giving up only 2 hits over 6 innings against the Pirates, but he was kept on a short pitch count and the bullpen was able to blow the game. Morris has been pitching well this year (1.15 WHIP) and St Louis has been hitting very hot lately. As long as Morris can keep it close, St Louis has a great chance to win this one in late innings.

Los Angeles +121

Lima has been good for the dodgers this year, going 4-1 with 2 of those wins in relief. LA has a big offensive advantage and, even though they got blown out yesterday 7-1, they did not put in a bad effort but stranded a lot of men on base. Toronto's bullpen has had some serious problems, and (like the Cubs) may give up some crucial runs late.

Colorado +220 1st 5 innings (Pinnacle)

You can pick up a couple of extra cents on the full game line, but to me the real value here lies in the half. Kennedy remains underrated, but statistically he is right on par with Kevin Brown, and the offenses match up fairly evenly. My main concern with colorado is the bullpen, so iw ill take them out of the equation (note that you can also get Col +0.5 +163, which I rate as only slightly less favorable than the straight line)

Baltimore -127
Baltimore-Arizona over 9.5 -120

Pitchers rate about evenly, though Webb has been getting absolutely lit up recently (2.02 WHIP and 9.39 ERA over last 3). However Baltimore has home field as well as a .304 avg vs righties, while Arizona has only been hitting .236 vs lefties on the season, although they have been hitting much better (over .300) over the last 10.

Cincinatti +133

I have been keeping a close eye on Acevedo this season and think he is much better than he is given credit for. Statistically, he is the better pitcher in this matchup, with two offenses that are about equal.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 4-2 +3.71

YTD: 99-101 +27.56

Thursday. Another day with a lot of plays for me:

Colorado +200
Colorado +204 (1st 5 innings - @ pinnacle)

Jennings struggled early in the year, but he is 3-0 over his last 3 starts, and while his stats aren't terrific, he is better on paper than Contreras, who has an ERA over 7 and a WHIP close to 2. Colorado is also superior on the offensive side, so I think this is a decent overlay. However, the Yanks bullpen has been great (ERA of 1.69 over their last 3), and Colorado has struggled in this department. Instead of making this a 2-unit play, I am going to split it and make a wager on the 1st 5 innnings as well (actually, the 1st 5 innings is the superior choice here).

Detroit +117

Starting pitchers are pretty even but Detroit has home field as well as the better offense. Over their last 10, the Tigers are hitting .280 vs. righties, while in that same span, Atlanta is hitting .200 against lefties. Tigers bullpen is a little of a concern, but I think the value is here regardless.

San Diego +230

This line is just way too high. Sure, Schilling has been great, but he still has lost 3 games this season, 1 more than Valdez has. San Diego has a shot to win and a line of better than 2-1 is just way too generous to pass on.

Tampa Bay -122

Victor Zambrano has been tough for me to figure out this year. He has shown some flashes of brilliance, but has also got knocked around a few times. He does look to be in good form now, and Rueter has been struggling. The San Fran bullpen has also been getting hit on a lot lately. Tampa has actually hit better against lefties all year, so I think they are a well-deserved favorite in this game.

Chicago White Sox -115

Starters and relievers are about even here, but chicago has a huge offensive advantage and home field.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 2-3 -0.83 (white sox postponed)

YTD: 101-104 +26.73

Friday. Taking a shot with two big dogs that I think have a chance today. I am hoping for 1 of the two to come through:

San Diego + 185

I will keep fading the Yanks, although they have been burning me lately. Mussina is the better pitcher, but San Diego can equal the Yanks on offense and have a terrfic bullpen. Worth a shot at +185.

Pittsburgh +220

Tough to go against Hudson, but Benson has been improving and Pittsburgh has the better offense and the better bullpen. Pittsburgh has been slumping (1-9 over their last 10) so the value is there for a turnaround.

 

[Drunkn247]

I respect what you have done so far but why do you constantly say other teams offense is equal to the yankees. Its not even close to equal. The yanks have the best lineup from top to bottom in the league. I can see not betting them because of the high prices but to continually fade them is just stupid.

 

[Drunkn247]

Good call tonight on the Padres but I don't think fading the yanks over the long haul will make you lots of money.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 1-1 +0.85

YTD: 102-105 +27.58

Saturday.

San Diego +168
San Diego/New York under 10.5 -125

Tankersley has been surprisingly effective in his two starts, although he is winless. He has given up 9 hits and 6 runs over those two starts, although both were against Milwaukee. LIeber has been effetive but I have to give San Diego at least a moderate chance to win this. The San diego bullpen has been great, and neither offense has been on fire, so I also like the under. 11 of the last 14 have gone under for San Diego.

Pittsburgh-Oakland over 9 -125

Vogelsong has been absolutely horrible, earning himself a 7.53 ERA on the season. Redman has also struggled lately, and the Pirates can hit decently against lefties. Oakland has been lighting it up on offense, and neither bullpen is top notch, so i think the potential for a high scoring game is large.

Haven't capped the late games yet, but I do see some potential winners. Will be back later with those picks.

 

[drunkguy]

adding one for the late games:

Chicago Cubs +137

Colon is in a bad slumpi, going winless in his last 5 starts and giving up at least 4 runs in each of them. Over his last three he has a 2.13 WHIP and a 9.00 ERA. He has faced some good hitting teams over that span, but he is definitely not living up to his billing. Rusch has been decent since moving up to starter, getting his first loss in his last start. The angels offense should not be too hard on him, as they are hitting only .207 vs lefties over their last 10.

 

[Anonymous1]

drunk...angels getting back some sock in line up with salmon and anderson since first part of week...looking to the over angel team run total...gltu

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 3-1 +2.37

YTD: 105-106 +29.95

Sunday. Right now I only see one game I like. Will take a look back through tomorrow and will update if anything changes:

Texas +108

Texas matches up at least even in every category, so I will gladly take them at better than even money at home.

 

[drunkguy]

yesterday: 0-1, lost 1 unit

YTD: 105-107 +28.95

Monday. Only 1 play:

Cincinatti +145

Acevedo got hit hard last time out (8 runs and 10 hits over 3 innings vs. Oakland), but I still do have confidence in him and that last outing resulted in a favorable line today. Philly has an edge in offense, but this line is too inflated to pass on.

 

[richdude57]

DG: I AM FROM PHILA. AND THERE SAYING GRIFFIE IS SITTING TONIGHT. GLTU THE DUDE &gt

~ SEE YA AT DA BASH

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 0-1 -1.00

YTD: 105-108 +27.95

Tuesday:

Chicago Cubs +105

Zambrano is by far too good of a pitcher to be an underdog. Chicago is hitting just as well as Houston, but the discrepancy in starter pitcher will be the difference.

Chicago White Sox-Florida over 9 +100

Both teams are hitting over .290 vs righties in their last 10. Burnett's got an ERA over 10 and a WHIP well over 2 in his 2 starts. Garland has also not been terrific with an ERA of 6.87 over his last 3. Both bullpens have ERAs over 6 in their last 3, and inflated WHIPs.

Texas -125

Rogers has struggled lately but he is still 2-0 over his last 3. Texas actually hits better vs. lefties, while cin really struggles against southpaws. Texas has the best of every improtant statistical matchup

Oakland +112

Zito definitely underrated in this spot. He has looked much better in his last few starts. Oakland bats are on fire now, hitting .332 vs righties.

Toronto +180 (2 units)

Schmidt has been great (and consistent) this year, but Batista is actually outpitching him over the last 3, going 2-0 with a 0.84 WHIP and 1.08 ERA. These three weren't exactly against slouch teams either - Los angeles (W), Texas (W) and Oakland (ND, but allowed only 6 hits and 1 run in 8 innnings, against the hottest hitting team in baseball at the moment). With most of the other matchups fairly even, I think this pitching matchup is vastly underrated. I am going to make this a 2-unit play because I feel this line is significantly far away from its true value.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 2-3 -2.20

YTD: 107-111 +25.75

Wednesday:

Chicago Cubs -103 first 5 (Pinnacle)

Maddux is by far the superior pitcher in this matchup (0.97 WHIP, 2.18 ERA over last 3). Chicago actually hitting much better against righties of late. Cubs bullpen is of some concern so I will play the first half line.

Detroit +157

Maroth pitching real well (1.14 WHIP and 2.14 ERA over last 3). Detroit gets the offensive and bullpen edge as well, making this a real nice overlay.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday 0-1 +1.03 (Detroit rained out)

YTD: 107-112 +24.72

Thursday:

Chicago Cubs +180

Oswalt has been greatly overrated this year. He is not dominant on the mound and Houston is only 4-9 in his starts this year. Cubs are hot, 7-2 in their last 9, and Rusch is a capable pitcher who may get them through for a win.

Texas +105

Van Poppel has been streaky, while Drese is coming off a great showing vs St Louis (and carrying a 0.98 WHIP over his last 3). Texas also has the offensive edge and should be favored today.

 

[drunkguy]

didn't see a whole lot I like yesterday, so took the day off.

Last time: 1-1 +0.8

YTD: 108-113 +25.52

Saturday night:

Kansas City +130

Kansas City has been playing real well, Greinke has also pitched well with a WHIP of 0.97 on the year even though his record is 1-2. He has gone 7 innings in each of his last 4 starts, allowing no more than 7 hits in any game, and giving up only 8 rund over that span (5 coming in his last start vs New York). Kansas City has been batting real well and although Milton is 8-1, his statistics aren't that impressive (WHIP 1.56, ERA 4.60). He gave up 4 runs and 8 hits in 3 innings against Cinci in his last start. The injury to Benito Santiago is my only real concern with KC.

Cleveland -108

Westbrook has been great for the Indians, and their bullpen has also been shaping up. They also have the offensive edge. Paul Byrd probably weon't last long, and the Braves bullpen has an ERA of 8.78 over their last three.

Baltimore-Colorado over 13.5 -110

Both starters have ERAs over 5, both bullpens have ERAs over 5, and we are in Colorado. The over has gone 10-3 when Dubose starts for Baltimore.

Toronto-San Diego over 8 -110

Towers has allowed 14 runs in 18.1 innings this year, and opponents are batting 0.330 against him. Neither bullpen has been particularly great, and both teams are hitting the ball well.

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 1-3 -2.18

YTD: 109-116 +23.34

no time for writeups for tomorrows game's but there are a bunch I like. I have 9 plays, I think my biggest day of the year for baseball. I'm going to use Pinny's overnights:

Minnesota -115
Oakland +134
Texas +129
Baltimore +129
Boston +168
Toronto +136
Tampa Bay +109
Los angeles +122
Los angeles -1.5 +239

 

[drunkguy]

Yesterday: 6-3 +4.25

YTD: 115-119 +27.59

Monday. (playing overnights from pinny again):

Pittsburgh +160
Pit-Hou over 9 -115

Two below average pitchers, with a combined record of 7-11 (1-4 over last 3 combined) facing lineups that can hit. Should be plenty of offense, meaning this should be quite winnable for either team, so I will make a play on the large dog. Fogg actually outpitching Redding over last 3 starts anyway.


San Diego -1.5 +148

Fossum 1-5 on the year (Ari 1-6 when he starts). Ari has been outscored 32-15 in those games. Valdez, while going only 1-1 over his last 3 starts, has a WHIP of 0.95 over that period (while Fossum has a 2.05 WHIP in his last 3). SD also batting .299 vs lefties this year. I think this has the making of a one-sided game.

Los Angeles -116

Perez the better pitcher with a 1.09 WHIP on the year. LA also has the offensive advantage and a dominant bullpen.