Does anyone play Baccarat at the casino or online?

[WVU]

I can tell you this much about Max's baccarat prowess. It is not likely that he is ahead after playing 100 hands of baccarat. It is even more unlikely that he is ahead after 1000 hands of baccarat. After 10,000 hands it is nearly mathematically impossible to be ahead.

What is likely is we have a case of selective memory and/or exaggerated win history

 

[Uncle Sam I am]

So if I get enough posts I can say that? How many hands in +5 years? I am not about to imply Mr. Demo is a liar but odds don't lie either. Can you overcome them short term, of course. But long term, that is tough. Over a 5 year period? Show me how.

 

[maxdemo]

I can tell you this much about Max's baccarat prowess. It is not likely that he is ahead after playing 100 hands of baccarat. It is even more unlikely that he is ahead after 1000 hands of baccarat. After 10,000 hands it is nearly mathematically impossible to be ahead.

What is likely is we have a case of selective memory and/or exaggerated win history

:missingte :missingte :missingte

Ok WVU whatever you say....too funny. I never play 1000 hands in one setting. Maybe 75-125 hands is the most I will play in a 2 day period. I know it must be hard to realize that some one can make $$ at this....but it does happen everyday in a Casino.

 

[Uncle Sam I am]

Everyday, how are they still in business with this giveaway promotion called baccarat? You lost me on that statement. I rarely see anyone cashout with more than what they bought in. Let alone everyday. How many hands in a +5 year stretch? I too want to be a professional baccarat player. Like James Bond.

You are my hero, my role model Mr. Bondemo.

 

[WVU]

:missingte :missingte :missingte

Ok WVU whatever you say....too funny. I never play 1000 hands in one setting. Maybe 75-125 hands is the most I will play in a 2 day period. I know it must be hard to realize that some one can make $$ at this....but it does happen everyday in a Casino.

Over the course of 5 years you would probably have played at least 10,000 hands. The odds of coming out ahead after 10,000 unit plays are astronomical. You have a better chance of winning the Lotto.

Tell me this, if you are confident enough that you can beat this game then why don't you play it every day and retire a rich man? I believe you can beat it in the short run, but no way in hell are you beating it long term which I consider to be 1000 hands plus.

Be careful with these outrageous claims because there are many gamblers here with your mentality that will go broke trying to do what you claim.
:youmad:

 

[Uncle Sam I am]

Funny you should mention that. I am heading to the casino now. I also want the exciting lifestyle of James Bondemo. I want the chicks, the 5 years of +EV. Man, have I been taking the wrong approach to gambling. Bet on streaks, ok, I can do that, but when and on what side?

 

[maxdemo]

Over the course of 5 years you would probably have played at least 10,000 hands. The odds of coming out ahead after 10,000 unit plays are astronomical. You have a better chance of winning the Lotto.

Tell me this, if you are confident enough that you can beat this game then why don't you play it every day and retire a rich man? I believe you can beat it in the short run, but no way in hell are you beating it long term which I consider to be 1000 hands plus.

Be careful with these outrageous claims because there are many gamblers here with your mentality that will go broke trying to do what you claim.
:youmad:

Until you know me or what I have done you should be careful calling out someone:nono5: . Again I will state for the record that I am +EV in this game. Yes if you played 1000+ hands in a row(thats in a row!!!) you would be down but when you play those over a 5 yr span that is different. You cant win at this game if you play everyday...LOL

 

[WVU]

Until you know me or what I have done you should be careful calling out someone:nono5: . Again I will state for the record that I am +EV in this game. Yes if you played 1000+ hands in a row(thats in a row!!!) you would be down but when you play those over a 5 yr span that is different.

how is it different exactly? Yes I am calling you out. I don't have to know you to know the math.

 

[ganchrow]

It is not likely that he is ahead after playing 100 hands of baccarat. It is even more unlikely that he is ahead after 1000 hands of baccarat. After 10,000 hands it is nearly mathematically impossible to be ahead.

Actually, a player being ahead after 100 or 1,000, or even 10,000 (non-pushed) hands of baccarat is hardly unrealistic.

Assuming he's playing bank at 5% commission, and is playing out of an 8-deck shoe, then his probability of winning a single hand (conditioned on not pushing) would be about 45.860% / (1-9.516%) ≈ 50.682%.

To be ahead after 100 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 52 of those hands.
To be ahead after 1,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 513 of those hands.
To be ahead after 10,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 5,129 of those hands.
To be ahead after 100,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 51,283 of those hands.

Hence:

Probability of being ahead after 100 hands would be 43.528%
     Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(52-1,100,50.68244%,1)
Probability of being ahead after 1,000 hands would be 35.986%
     Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(513-1,1000,50.68244%,1)
Probability of being ahead after 10,000 hands would be 11.405%
     Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(5129-1,10000,50.68244%,1)
Probability of being ahead after 100,000 hands would be 0.007%
     Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(51283-1,100000,50.68244%,1)
​

 

[Uncle Sam I am]

The amount of hands played in sequence or session is totally irrelevant. 1,000 or 10,000. The math is exactly the same. I am rapidly losing my faith in your weak minded arguments Mr. Bondemo. But I will fuckoff per your request as I am off to emulate your odds defying run. Wish me luck.

 

[Uncle Sam I am]

Actually, a player being ahead after 100 or 1,000, or even 10,000 (non-pushed) hands of baccarat is hardly unrealistic.

Assuming he's playing bank at 5% commission, and is playing out of an 8-deck shoe, then his probability of winning a single hand (conditioned on not pushing) would be about 45.860% / (1-9.516%) ≈ 50.682%.

To be ahead after 100 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 52 of those hands.
To be ahead after 1,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 513 of those hands.
To be ahead after 10,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 5,129 of those hands.
To be ahead after 100,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 51,283 of those hands.


Hence:

Probability of being ahead after 100 hands would be 43.528% -- Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(52-1,100,50.68244%,1)​

Probability of being ahead after 1,000 hands would be 35.986% -- Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(513-1,1000,50.68244%,1)​

Probability of being ahead after 10,000 hands would be 11.405% -- Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(5129-1,10000,50.68244%,1)​

Probability of being ahead after 100,000 hands would be 0.007% -- Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(51283-1,100000,50.68244%,1)​

11% after 10,000 hands. Math does not lie. So after 10,000 hands, with ideal vig/comm% and no mistakes or deviations, I have an over 88% of losing? Cancel my casino trip. Only Mr. Bond and Mr. Demo could achieve that. And that variance dissapears with that 100,000 criteria. .007, Mr. Bond I presume.

 

[maxdemo]

Actually, a player being ahead after 100 or 1,000, or even 10,000 (non-pushed) hands of baccarat is hardly unrealistic.

Assuming he's playing bank at 5% commission, and is playing out of an 8-deck shoe, then his probability of winning a single hand (conditioned on not pushing) would be about 45.860% / (1-9.516%) ≈ 50.682%.

To be ahead after 100 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 52 of those hands.
To be ahead after 1,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 513 of those hands.
To be ahead after 10,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 5,129 of those hands.
To be ahead after 100,000 non-pushed hands he'd need to win at least 51,283 of those hands.


Hence:

Probability of being ahead after 100 hands would be 43.528%​

Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(52-1,100,50.68244%,1)​

Probability of being ahead after 1,000 hands would be 35.986%​

Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(513-1,1000,50.68244%,1)​

Probability of being ahead after 10,000 hands would be 11.405%​

Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(5129-1,10000,50.68244%,1)​

Probability of being ahead after 100,000 hands would be 0.007%​

Excel formula =1-BINOMDIST(51283-1,100000,50.68244%,1)​

and that is if you played every hand at a set amount???LOL

You guys must play card games of some sort. Dont you increase the bets when you feel hot or are in sync?? You guys are hoot to say that no-one wins at Baccarat. :missingte

 

[WVU]

Thanks ganchrow, my math was way off. But math only applies to those who are not omnipotent like our friend Max here.

So you can FEEL when you are going to win eh Max? You falied to mention that you had ESP powers that we don't have. Why didn't you say so in the first place?

 

[maxdemo]

WVU....dude I dont know you but hope to see you at the Sept. Bash and show you my ESP and how I win at Baccarat.

I cant fault you for what you are saying because you DONT play Baccarat....be glad you dont because that $500 a week paycheck would be eaten up real quick. You have to bring 10k to the table min. and play only at the $300 to $1k per hand table.

 

[Uncle Sam I am]

I hate to say this Max, but I prefer to at least try to get +ev when I gamble. And the math and numbers supplied by Granch and myself seem to be accurate. And as illustrated the amount of hands reduces the variance. You would have to be James Bond to be a winner at 100,000. You keep throwing these hints about how you beat it, like you bet streaks, don't play 1,000 hands a day and now you vary units. You know Mr. Demo, I think all of that accounts for squat. I don't care if you bet streaks, with the perfect amount of hands for you and vary units, the math says no.

Had this been a blackjack thread where you could swing the odds into your favor, I would not say a word. Counting helps. You could count until the cows come home in baccarat and with the multi deck shoes and the cut you are gaining nothing. Better off drawing color pictures with the pens. Also, they give you that stuff to occupy you, make you think you are doing something that might predict the next hand. It is merely a distraction, and seperates the drunks from the sobers. But it is baccarat. One of the house best rakes. And with your super secret special method, you and others, as it happens everyday, have it all figured out. Stick with posting articles. I think you did well copying others work in school, but failed basic math.

 

[WVU]

WVU....dude I dont know you but hope to see you at the Sept. Bash and show you my ESP and how I win at Baccarat.

I cant fault you for what you are saying because you DONT play Baccarat....be glad you dont because that $500 a week paycheck would be eaten up real quick. You have to bring 10k to the table min. and play only at the $300 to $1k per hand table.

LMAO. I never said I didn't play baccarat. I have played 100s of thousands of hands online as well as plenty in brick and mortars. I wagered for plenty of bonuses playing bacarat.

Are you out of wit that you have to try to take a crack at me and how much money I make? You are a douchebag

 

[Uncle Sam I am]

I can't believe he had to stoop to the $500 paycheck shot. Desperation at it's finest. I only got told to fuck off so I could not possibly feel as bad as you. I guess a newbie only gets the second hand material. I like you Mr. Demo, fuckoff or not. You post a lot of good shit from what I see. I respect your difference in perspective. I see that game as offering close to no opportunity for me other than entertainment. You see it as a moneymaker. Your a rare breed, one of the chosen few against the percentages. Good for you. At least you ran it up the flagpole, just not a lot of salutes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rhVG7NSjMA :howdy:

 

[bellyputter]

Where's heatohio when we need him?

 

[Illini]

Uncle Sam I am...why dont you go f*#* Off

I guess I have been +EV for 5+ years...wow you think I am the only one. Get a life dude....you seem to have other problems than just my response to your posts...I suggest you get laid or get some good weed and STFU. Life is too short to be worried about someone else and the way they make $$. Find your own way to make $$ instead of relying on other people to share their winning strategies and HELP you make $$.

I don't think you know what +EV means.

 

[Uno]

Until you know me or what I have done you should be careful calling out someone:nono5: . Again I will state for the record that I am +EV in this game. Yes if you played 1000+ hands in a row(thats in a row!!!) you would be down but when you play those over a 5 yr span that is different. You cant win at this game if you play everyday...LOL

what a great thread.

no one is +EV in baccarat... you should learn what +EV means before you use it.

horrible but hilarious.

not that it will matter but for any sane individual who is reading this and might believe max demo you cannot beat baccarat streaks or no streaks long term.

if you think you can then the house has already won.