posted by xpanda:
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What was the state of the UAE prior to its decision to drill in 1972?
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Oil made a big difference of course. The specific emirate of Dubai has been a major trade hub in the Middle East for something like one hundred years, despite British colonialism nearly driving it to ruin in the mid-20th century.
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Also, is it safe to say, that for the time being at least (while the oil still pumps, presuming that it is the foundation upon which capitalism can flourish) we can safely assume that the vast majority fall into the category of the "haves" ... it is when a sharp division between the "haves" and the "have-nots" becomes clear that capitalism is stifled in favour of socialist programs.
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UAE still gets a good amount of money from oil, but the significance of oil to the private and public sector has been steadily declining since the early 1980's, and with increasing rapidity since Maktoum came to power. Like nearly all other Muslim nations, there is a welfare structure in place which is funded by oil. Since the UAE produces well under their capacity and is estimated to have 100 years' worth of reserves at current consumption it is likely that the demand for the UAE's oil will run out long before the oil does -- but regardless of which happens first the net result will be the same (eventually what money they do get from oil will no longer be coming in, and they'll have to put on their big girl panties and deal with it.)
The gap between "haves" and "have nots" is a lot more narrow than it used to be, despite propaganda to the contrary. The poorest people in America live like European royalty of a century ago, better than they did really, as far as what they have available to them in the way of food, shelter, medical care, etc. Despite a century of socialism, communism and fascism sucking the life out of the world, the benefits of the very limited form of free trade that has been allowed here and there are astounding. I just don't see it as being a problem for the UAE, because what causes the real gaps between "haves" and "have nots" has nothing to do with the market and everything to do with statism and tyranny. No sensible person would deny that most of sub-Saharan Africa is a hellhole of poverty and squalor, but far from being a symptom of the universal hobgoblin known as "globalisation" most of this vast territory has been under the thumb of various imperialists and statists for decades and even centuries. From 1870 on, the nation now known as Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire, previously Belgian Congo, and so on) was terrorised by the Egyptians, the Belgians, and a succession of corrupt dictators (including the notorious Mobutu Sese Seko, the role model for most of modern Africa's rulers) which finally culminated in an outright sociopath so far out there that he made Jim Jones look like a Boy Scout troop leader and was assassinated (allegedly by neighbouring Rwanda [not exactly a nice place for studying African history itself] as a move of pre-emptive self-defence.) Today the aforementioned sociopath's son is nominally in charge, but the nation's civil war has never really ended and is not likely to do so any time soon.
It wasn't Wal-Mart or some outsourcing consultant firm in Atlanta that fúcked this place up. It was people believing that they'd be better off with a white guy in charge, or a black guy in charge, or a guy on whom they voted, or a guy who was strong enough to seize power. It was a century and a quarter worth of central Africans looking to someone else to solve their problems, despite being let down in most cases and outright betrayed and brutalised in others over and over again. Americans do this every two years when they elect their Congressmen, it just isn't quite as ugly.
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Also, I would like to know, for the sake of understanding your position, in your Utopian Laissez-Faire society, what, if any, state-sponsored programs would still exist?
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In a perfectly
laissez-faire society, there would be no state apparatus at all. However, only statists have the luxury of being able to indulge in Utopian fantasies, so I am well aware of and at relative peace with the fact that such a world will never come around absent some sort of global social meltdown
a lá The Postman (which would most likely be caused by ... say it with me ... governments ...)
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Further, exactly where do you propose that they generate the revenue to fund these programs?
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James Ostrowski wrote an excellent piece three years ago called "
A $ 21 Trillion Tax Cut" that suggests a system of voluntary taxation, which would work very well -- on the assumption that the state would somehow remain in check as far as spending goes. I believe that Ostrowski's system could be put into practice, although I disagree with his optimistically low figures and feel it would probably end up being more expensive than he thinks (but still less expensive by a very wide margin than the current tax-and-spend system.)
posted by Darryl Parsons:
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I was thinking of asking very similar questions. I spent a few hours today thinking about what Hungary would be like (ignoring international influences initially) if the government all of a sudden somehow sold everything it controls to the private sector and basically ceased to exist, thus making pure unbridled capitalism the order of the day.
Probably the first thing that would happen is that the existing mafias would declare themselves in charge of the territory they already control, only now instead of the limited scope of activities they operate in like money laundering, drugs, counterfeiting, loan sharking, prostitution and extortion, they would announce that they are in charge of everything. Those who currently hold positions of power in the government would likely join whichever mafia they feel best represents their interests. Since they probably will have stolen a good deal of government property they will be quite rich and will therefore occupy high positions in the mafia, after negotiations with the current bosses of course. After the internal power struggle is sorted out there would probably be a war between the various mafias until one emerged victorious. Then this mafia would set up its own government according to the principles it believes in and given the current mentalities in Hungary it would probably look like National Socialism a la Hitler after a few years.
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Sounds pretty shitty, but frankly it sounds like what you're saying is that nothing would change; they'd just start being honest about what they're already doing and have been trying to do.
However, I will point out that it is difficult to imagine that Hungary sold everything to the private sector, yet bureaucrats managed to seize up enough wealth to go into collusion with the gangsters and all that. On the other hand, Russia seems to have done just about that same thing, so I guess it could happen.
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Of course this all assumes that the USA and other countries just stand by and watch as all this happens. And this is, of course, completely out of the question not just in Hungary but in any country in the world with half an economy.
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The US and other countries have a very hard time with figuring out what should be left alone and what should be intervened in. I wouldn't bank on such "assistance" happening, and I wouldn't bank on it helping if it did happen.
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Still I would be interested in Phaedrus' answers to XP's questions and what he sees as the major necessary prerequisites to make the world (or the western world or even just the USA) move in the direction of pure capitalism.
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Honestly, I know that it's an almost Malthusian point of view but I think that about the only thing that would cause a wide-scale rise in true
laissez-faire capitalism in any significant part of the world would be madness and chaos on the order of the more acid-trip sections of the Bible. The worst things get, the more people are apt to turn to the state to solve the problems -- even problems which the state itself caused. If that doesn't work, get rid of the existing rulers and replace them with new rulers to do the exact same thing, but maybe it will work this time around. It's what people do. Most people have an almost innate need to be led and told what to do, much to the detriment of those of us who don't, and much to the delight of those who wish to do the leading and telling (and if Jaynes was right, perhaps it's even part of the intrinsic psychological makeup of man, which means that we're all pretty well screwed.) So, things will just continue to get worse and people will continue to make it worse by attempting to do the same things over and over again to solve the problem.
In their book
The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age Davidson and Rees-Mogg put forth a scenario that is palpatably realistic and very likely to be a close approximation of the next fifty years or so of human history. I believe that the sort of social breakdown envisioned in the book is probably a neccessary prerequisite to any sort of meaningful wide-scale application of
laissez-faire capitalist society, not because capitalism itself requires it, but because statism is not likely to die a peaceful death despite having long since outlived its usefulness.
Mind you, I don't look forward to such a thing, hope that Davidson and Rees-Mogg are wrong, and am not sure that it would be worth it just to have a free world, given that I'm pretty free now relative to most other people. But you asked what I think would be a prerequisite to a capitalist society, and as far as broad strokes go, I'm guessing Armageddon.
Phaedrus