Okay I'll play devils advocate here;
The Pats have been on a slow regression since week 7, injuries have been a large part of that. But In week 7 I had their Power rating at a peak of 37 today they are 26
The Pats have lost 4 of their last 6 - you could again blame injuries but in the past that has not been the "patriots way" Usually in December they have been dominate.
The line opened at -5 which is a dead number in the NFL Favs at home at -5 are .500 in the past 3 years
KC on the other hand has been HOT and since week 7 their Power rating has gone from 21 to 28
So In reality this line should be -1 Patriots, but that would create lopside action for sure - just look at this thread everyone is on NE at -4.5 -5 the books knew what they were doing. Now they have pretty even action which is holding the line steady.
Favs with 50-59% of the bets at SI in the early week are 24-29 ATS the last 3 seasons
So Edleman comes back - his timing will be off
Gronk has not been much a factor maybe they were saving him to avoid another injury to a key player
You say the Pats will employee a quick strike passing offense well they have to they cant run the ball, so that is their only option.since getting Steven Jackson they have rushed for 63 and 70 yards in games they were focused on running the ball.
The Pats also have some key players who are knicked up on defense Hightower, Coleman Jone to name a few....
The Pats have scored over 30 just once since week 8 and that was vs Tenn - Prior to that they had done it 6 out of 7 times - no doubt the O is out off gas -
Now everyone knows I have a vested interest in KC and I am not advocating a SU win by the Chiefs I just think they cover and this is actually a FG game. Although we are looking at streaking team vs a wounded duck so you never know the Mystic of Foxborough is strong but teams can win there.
In the Game of HC Match ups I think Andy Reid while not in Belicheck's class can hold his own - just don't give him the clock to manage.
Reid is 15-5 VS the AFC OTR since putting on that XXXL Red Jacket
Reid is 6-0 vs AFC EAST in that time
GL - TCG and all you NE backers - TCG You have been hot nice double ender on the NC championship game - Tread lightly here this is not a NE walk over
powerz
The Pats have been on a slow regression since week 7, injuries have been a large part of that. But In week 7 I had their Power rating at a peak of 37 today they are 26
The Pats have lost 4 of their last 6 - you could again blame injuries but in the past that has not been the "patriots way" Usually in December they have been dominate.
The line opened at -5 which is a dead number in the NFL Favs at home at -5 are .500 in the past 3 years
KC on the other hand has been HOT and since week 7 their Power rating has gone from 21 to 28
So In reality this line should be -1 Patriots, but that would create lopside action for sure - just look at this thread everyone is on NE at -4.5 -5 the books knew what they were doing. Now they have pretty even action which is holding the line steady.
Favs with 50-59% of the bets at SI in the early week are 24-29 ATS the last 3 seasons
So Edleman comes back - his timing will be off
Gronk has not been much a factor maybe they were saving him to avoid another injury to a key player
You say the Pats will employee a quick strike passing offense well they have to they cant run the ball, so that is their only option.since getting Steven Jackson they have rushed for 63 and 70 yards in games they were focused on running the ball.
The Pats also have some key players who are knicked up on defense Hightower, Coleman Jone to name a few....
The Pats have scored over 30 just once since week 8 and that was vs Tenn - Prior to that they had done it 6 out of 7 times - no doubt the O is out off gas -
Now everyone knows I have a vested interest in KC and I am not advocating a SU win by the Chiefs I just think they cover and this is actually a FG game. Although we are looking at streaking team vs a wounded duck so you never know the Mystic of Foxborough is strong but teams can win there.
In the Game of HC Match ups I think Andy Reid while not in Belicheck's class can hold his own - just don't give him the clock to manage.
Reid is 15-5 VS the AFC OTR since putting on that XXXL Red Jacket
Reid is 6-0 vs AFC EAST in that time
GL - TCG and all you NE backers - TCG You have been hot nice double ender on the NC championship game - Tread lightly here this is not a NE walk over
powerz
I don't think it will change much.........KC is getting quite a bit of love everywhere I look.
The line that's crazy to me is Carolina......now they're -2.5 at most books.
Big Ben has torn ligaments, & I'm assuming he will definitely play but won't be effective.
Damn tough games this week........wildcard was definitely easier..........
I have seen the KC line drop to 4.5 but it went back up quickly. I think there is mostly even money. If anything I might expect a late rush of public money on NE, but nothing drastic. I could see it closing anywhere between 4.5 and 5.5. I think TCG got it at a good price. I took at 5 because I figured I might not get another chance and in football the 5 is not much different than 4.5 (few games end with a 5-point difference). 4 and 6 are somewhat important numbers and I think the books will avoid giving out those lines unless something wild happens.
I also agree that the Carolina line makes no sense? Is SEA just that popular -- even after a pretty bad weak. I thought the line would be 3(-120) for Carolina, or even -3.5. A 15-1 team, facing a team that just faced a brutal defense in the cold, travelling for the 4th straight week -- and 2.5? Carolina is my favorite play of the week.
To be honest, i didn't know which way i was going on this game until today......i believe the low line is due to the fact Seattle has been to the super bowl 2 str years. Carolina under 3 points is a gift, & i just took it.
Carolina -2.5 (-120)..........(XX-Large)
Carolina is well rested & they're at home.......Seattle on their 4th str road game, & we all know Seattle had no business winning that game last week......yes it was brutally cold in Minnesota, but its not like Seattle plays indoors anymore.
Carolina didn't go 15-1 to get booted out in their 1st playoff game.......Seattle has a good team, & imo, we will see a close game.
Carolina 24-20 final
3 team ML parlay: Patriots ML.....Cards ML.....Carolina ML.......(Large)
Originally Posted by The Computer Group
Harry, why do you think Carolina spread is spot on? I think its off.......I thought the spread should be -4.5. Reply>>
Originally Posted by MR.HARRYtheHAT
Line opened in Vegas at -3....... Caesars, SPoint, StnCas, GldNug, WHill, moved it down - 2 1/2. Giving 3 points as home team spread looks right for me. System Smitty Ryann Jr. calculated odds for game -6 [ 3 points for home team advantage, Wilson vs Newton> +1 Newton, Panthers 31.2 points per game is tops in the NFL +2, Comparing Defense at even, Seahawks had its troubles against the better offense like Panthers In seven games against those scoring above the league average of 23 points, I believe is a major factor with this spread. That's the way we see it Computer Group, Remember it just our own calculations with J.J. power rating !!!! and Smittys calculating odds in this match-up
Sharpies & Whales we have talked to at different books here in town are relying on the Seahawks to do what it takes[Laying points not the money line Computer Group. It’ll be interesting to see which way this line moves over the week, whether it could be reverse line movement continues – Panthers increased to a field-goal advantage despite taking in just 39% of the money – or if it settles back down again as more money pours in on this game during week. More money is betting on the Chiefs vs. Patriots then other games so far this week from our sources here at various books here in town. Lets see if continues? Computer Group!!!!!
Harry, why do you think Carolina spread is spot on? I think its off.......I thought the spread should be -4.5. Reply>> Originally Posted by MR.HARRYtheHAT
Line opened in Vegas at -3....... Caesars, SPoint, StnCas, GldNug, WHill, moved it down - 2 1/2. Giving 3 points as home team spread looks right for me. System Smitty Ryann Jr. calculated odds for game -6 [ 3 points for home team advantage, Wilson vs Newton> +1 Newton, Panthers 31.2 points per game is tops in the NFL +2, Comparing Defense at even, Seahawks had its troubles against the better offense like Panthers In seven games against those scoring above the league average of 23 points, I believe is a major factor with this spread. That's the way we see it Computer Group, Remember it just our own calculations with J.J. power rating !!!! and Smittys calculating odds in this match-upSharpies & Whales we have talked to at different books here in town are relying on the Seahawks to do what it takes[Laying points not the money line Computer Group. It’ll be interesting to see which way this line moves over the week, whether it could be reverse line movement continues – Panthers increased to a field-goal advantage despite taking in just 39% of the money – or if it settles back down again as more money pours in on this game during week. More money is betting on the Chiefs vs. Patriots then other games so far this week from our sources here at various books here in town. Lets see if continues? Computer Group!!!!!
Can't put too much stock in the game played in October (Car/Sea). I remember that was the game somebody pulled the fire alarms at the Panther hotel in the middle of the night. Seattle was missing their best linebacker, Bobby Wagner, as well as their pass rushing DE Clark, rotation DT Hill, and two nickel corners. These teams know each other well, as this will be the 6th time they have played each other since 2012 (Sea had won 5 in a row vs Car until losing in October). The key for both teams defenses will be getting off the field on third downs. Both QB's are wizards out of making something out of nothing.
The panthers won't lack for motivation as they are getting no respect after going 15-1 and have a QB looking to take the step to elite. Seattle looking to find their mojo after an up and down year, will surely remember Newton and Olson running off the field and taunting the home fans after finally getting the Seahawk gorilla off their back.
Im pretty sure Carolina didn't want to see Seattle again this year. Feels like a rough draw going 15-1 and then being 'rewarded' with a game against a team of Seattle's pedigree and caliber.
Should be a great game. Will be some bigtime stickin, pads poppin, cam and sherman yappin lol
Can either of these teams hold a lead in the 4th quarter??
The panthers won't lack for motivation as they are getting no respect after going 15-1 and have a QB looking to take the step to elite. Seattle looking to find their mojo after an up and down year, will surely remember Newton and Olson running off the field and taunting the home fans after finally getting the Seahawk gorilla off their back.
Im pretty sure Carolina didn't want to see Seattle again this year. Feels like a rough draw going 15-1 and then being 'rewarded' with a game against a team of Seattle's pedigree and caliber.
Should be a great game. Will be some bigtime stickin, pads poppin, cam and sherman yappin lol
Can either of these teams hold a lead in the 4th quarter??
Adding 3 team 10 point teaser:
Patriots +5......Seattle +13.......Denver +4.......(XX-Large)
Putting Seattle in there knowing it will be a tight game.........
Patriots +5......Seattle +13.......Denver +4.......(XX-Large)
Putting Seattle in there knowing it will be a tight game.........
