:howdy:Hello my friends...
Let's get his out of the way first, I am indeed a Pittsburgh Steeler fan, how could I not be when considering that I was raised in the Pittsburgh area and as a teenager in the 70's witnessed the Steelers dominance?
However, unlike many others on this great board who are nothing more than fans or mouth pieces for their favorite teams, I am also a gambler that has been on both sides of the fence with regard to starting off with the ole "pigskin sheets" in the 70's to being a runner for a fairly large local book when I was in my early 20's to handicapping professionally.
I wager on ALL the play selections that I make using a $100 per unit wagering system that is really based on percentage of bankroll, with that in mind my smallest wager is usually $200 per game (two units) and my largest wager is usually no more than $500 (5 units) per game...
...with that being said it absolutely irked me more and more as I thought about it that someone would have the audacity of accusing me of being a "homer".
Maybe I have my definitions mixed up or something, however, don't you call someone who BLINDLY bets on one team over another team without rhyme or reason....a FAN or perhaps a HOMER??
When someone lays out what can be considered a well thought out and well layed out analysis as to WHY one team should win and/or cover the posted point spread over another team...isn't this (in most circles) called HANDICAPPING?
What reallyyyyyy bothers me most is when someone can not refute a factual statement made by someone else and/or when they can not reply with an intelligent response they then try to change the subject or commence with name calling.
Anyway, sorry for the ranting...now onward with more handicapping on the upcoming Pittsburgh-Baltimore game.
_____________________________________________________________
Baltimore will bring a highly heralded (and rightly so) defense to Pittsburgh that is led by aging LB Ray Lewis, the Raven defense can best be thought of or characterized as being a 4-3 base look that uses lots of movement as a means of confusing opposing offenses with various wrinkles and blitz packages.
What Baltimore likes to do is to have their front four engage and lockup the opposing teams blockers and in doing so NOT allow those same blockers to reach Baltimore's defensive secondary...
...this method allows the Raven linebackers to roam free and make tackles which in turn allows the Raven defensive secondary to concentrate on covering down field receivers.
To combat this the Steeler offensive line must effectively reach the second level of Baltimore's defense utilizing well executed pulls and trap blocks which in turn should create holes for the running game...
...however, the Ravens have not allowed a single RB to rush for over 100 yards all season long and they own the NFL's 3rd best rushing defense in terms of rushing yards allowed, so opening holes won't be an easy task nor will it be an easy task to get some helmets on the Raven linebacking corps as a means of extending runs when and if holes are opened.
As mentioned above, the Raven defense has not allowed a SINGLE running back to rush for over 100 yds in a game, however, that doesn't mean that the Raven defense hasn't been beaten this season in the rushing game...
...the Ravens were on the road for a 3rd straight week (just as they are this week) when they traveled to the Meadowlands of New Jersey to face the Giants back on Nov 16th, in that game the Giants used their "Earth, Wind, and Fire" backfield to shred the Ravens for a combined 207 rushing yards on 33 attempts which is a 6.27 yards per pop average in a 10-30 Raven loss...
...in the final week of the regular season Jacksonville visited Baltimore and rushed for 118 yards on 27 totes for a per pop average of 4.37 but had 4 turnovers which in effect gave the game to the Ravens.
...just last week Titan RB Chris Johnson rushed for 72 yards on 11 totes for a 6.55 per pop average before leaving the game with an injury and as a whole the Titans rushed for 116 combined yards on 28 attempts for a per tote average of 4.14 yds but lost due to turning the ball over 3 times in the red zone.
For the season the Ravens defense has only allowed 81.56 yards per game, however, they allowed 116 yards last week to Tenny and 118 yards to the Jags two weeks prior, the Dolphins only rushed for 52 yards against Baltimore but that was because Miami turned the ball over 5 times and consequently was playing catch up on the scoreboard the entire game.
Obviously this is a tired and worn down Baltimore Raven defense that is playing for an 18th straight week without a bye and is on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span...
...and that's not good news for Raven faithful as Pittsburgh is well rested having had two weeks off sprinkled in since Baltimore had their week of rest wayyyyy back in September.
This week the Raven defense will have to contend with "Fast" Willie Parker who is fresh and healthy, this is the same "Fast" Willie Parker that was clocked at 4.23 in the 40 yard dash...
...and ohhhhhh by the way, Willie Parker's time in the 40 yard dash was .01 second faster than Titan RB Chris Johnson.
Parker was banged up for most of the early part of this season with knee and shoulder injuries, however, Parker appeared at full strength for the first time since the start of the season last week against the Bolts in a game that saw Parker rush for 146 yards on 27 totes for a 5.41 per pop average.
As stated in my original analysis of this contest I am sooooooo glad that the media "talking heads" keep hyping up Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco, the reason centers around the fact that the combination of the hype surrounding the Raven defense along with the Flacco hype has kept the point spread under a full TD.
Flacco is being heralded as the best thing since sliced bread and has been compared to Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger...
...ahhhhhh excuse me but the only comparison between these QB's that should be made up to this point in time is that they both come from small colleges and both have a cannon for an arm...
...Roethlisberger as a rookie posted a record of 13-0 in leading his team to a playoff first round bye and won his divisional playoff game at home over the visiting Jets before losing in the AFC Championship game against the eventual Super Bowl winning New England Patriots.
...Roethlisberger in his rookie season threw for 2,621 yards with a TD to INT ratio of 17 to 11 and had a 98% passer rating, in his second year as a starter Roethlisberger became the youngest QB to ever win a Super Bowl and collected his first 50 NFL wins faster than any QB in history.
Meanwhile, Flacco has a TD to INT ratio of 14 to 12 this year, has a QB rating of 80.3 and has been all but invisible and a non factor in the playoffs thus far with regard to completing 9 of 23 tosses for 135 yds against Miami and completing 11 of 22 tosses for 161 yds against Tennessee...
...the point that I am trying to make is that Flacco is getting ALOT of hype leading up to this contest at Pittsburgh, I have already layed out the reasons as to why I think the Raven defense is tired and can be run on...
...and if Pittsburgh can run on Baltimore like I think they will, stay relatively turnover free as they usually do, and put points on the scoreboard, the Ravens will then be forced to give young Flacco a much larger role and there-in lies the question...
..."Would you rather have a proven commodity like Roethlisberger directing your offense in playoff crunch time or would you rather have an unproven and over hyped rookie?
Those that don't think that Raven LB Ray Lewis has missed a step and is slowing down might want to take a look at the video I am including as it shows just how bad Willie Parker made him look on several occasions when these two teams last met...
...now that Parker is fully healthy and the Raven defense is tired, Lewis will in all liklihood look worse this week.
http://www.viddler.com/explore/PostGameHeroes/videos/42/
PITTSBURGH -5.5 over Baltimore
Sunday 01/18/09 6:30 pm est
5*****BEST BET
Take care and be well my friends
Dirtydog
:wink:
Let's get his out of the way first, I am indeed a Pittsburgh Steeler fan, how could I not be when considering that I was raised in the Pittsburgh area and as a teenager in the 70's witnessed the Steelers dominance?
However, unlike many others on this great board who are nothing more than fans or mouth pieces for their favorite teams, I am also a gambler that has been on both sides of the fence with regard to starting off with the ole "pigskin sheets" in the 70's to being a runner for a fairly large local book when I was in my early 20's to handicapping professionally.
I wager on ALL the play selections that I make using a $100 per unit wagering system that is really based on percentage of bankroll, with that in mind my smallest wager is usually $200 per game (two units) and my largest wager is usually no more than $500 (5 units) per game...
...with that being said it absolutely irked me more and more as I thought about it that someone would have the audacity of accusing me of being a "homer".
Maybe I have my definitions mixed up or something, however, don't you call someone who BLINDLY bets on one team over another team without rhyme or reason....a FAN or perhaps a HOMER??
When someone lays out what can be considered a well thought out and well layed out analysis as to WHY one team should win and/or cover the posted point spread over another team...isn't this (in most circles) called HANDICAPPING?
What reallyyyyyy bothers me most is when someone can not refute a factual statement made by someone else and/or when they can not reply with an intelligent response they then try to change the subject or commence with name calling.
Anyway, sorry for the ranting...now onward with more handicapping on the upcoming Pittsburgh-Baltimore game.
_____________________________________________________________
Baltimore will bring a highly heralded (and rightly so) defense to Pittsburgh that is led by aging LB Ray Lewis, the Raven defense can best be thought of or characterized as being a 4-3 base look that uses lots of movement as a means of confusing opposing offenses with various wrinkles and blitz packages.
What Baltimore likes to do is to have their front four engage and lockup the opposing teams blockers and in doing so NOT allow those same blockers to reach Baltimore's defensive secondary...
...this method allows the Raven linebackers to roam free and make tackles which in turn allows the Raven defensive secondary to concentrate on covering down field receivers.
To combat this the Steeler offensive line must effectively reach the second level of Baltimore's defense utilizing well executed pulls and trap blocks which in turn should create holes for the running game...
...however, the Ravens have not allowed a single RB to rush for over 100 yards all season long and they own the NFL's 3rd best rushing defense in terms of rushing yards allowed, so opening holes won't be an easy task nor will it be an easy task to get some helmets on the Raven linebacking corps as a means of extending runs when and if holes are opened.
As mentioned above, the Raven defense has not allowed a SINGLE running back to rush for over 100 yds in a game, however, that doesn't mean that the Raven defense hasn't been beaten this season in the rushing game...
...the Ravens were on the road for a 3rd straight week (just as they are this week) when they traveled to the Meadowlands of New Jersey to face the Giants back on Nov 16th, in that game the Giants used their "Earth, Wind, and Fire" backfield to shred the Ravens for a combined 207 rushing yards on 33 attempts which is a 6.27 yards per pop average in a 10-30 Raven loss...
...in the final week of the regular season Jacksonville visited Baltimore and rushed for 118 yards on 27 totes for a per pop average of 4.37 but had 4 turnovers which in effect gave the game to the Ravens.
...just last week Titan RB Chris Johnson rushed for 72 yards on 11 totes for a 6.55 per pop average before leaving the game with an injury and as a whole the Titans rushed for 116 combined yards on 28 attempts for a per tote average of 4.14 yds but lost due to turning the ball over 3 times in the red zone.
For the season the Ravens defense has only allowed 81.56 yards per game, however, they allowed 116 yards last week to Tenny and 118 yards to the Jags two weeks prior, the Dolphins only rushed for 52 yards against Baltimore but that was because Miami turned the ball over 5 times and consequently was playing catch up on the scoreboard the entire game.
Obviously this is a tired and worn down Baltimore Raven defense that is playing for an 18th straight week without a bye and is on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span...
...and that's not good news for Raven faithful as Pittsburgh is well rested having had two weeks off sprinkled in since Baltimore had their week of rest wayyyyy back in September.
This week the Raven defense will have to contend with "Fast" Willie Parker who is fresh and healthy, this is the same "Fast" Willie Parker that was clocked at 4.23 in the 40 yard dash...
...and ohhhhhh by the way, Willie Parker's time in the 40 yard dash was .01 second faster than Titan RB Chris Johnson.
Parker was banged up for most of the early part of this season with knee and shoulder injuries, however, Parker appeared at full strength for the first time since the start of the season last week against the Bolts in a game that saw Parker rush for 146 yards on 27 totes for a 5.41 per pop average.
As stated in my original analysis of this contest I am sooooooo glad that the media "talking heads" keep hyping up Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco, the reason centers around the fact that the combination of the hype surrounding the Raven defense along with the Flacco hype has kept the point spread under a full TD.
Flacco is being heralded as the best thing since sliced bread and has been compared to Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger...
...ahhhhhh excuse me but the only comparison between these QB's that should be made up to this point in time is that they both come from small colleges and both have a cannon for an arm...
...Roethlisberger as a rookie posted a record of 13-0 in leading his team to a playoff first round bye and won his divisional playoff game at home over the visiting Jets before losing in the AFC Championship game against the eventual Super Bowl winning New England Patriots.
...Roethlisberger in his rookie season threw for 2,621 yards with a TD to INT ratio of 17 to 11 and had a 98% passer rating, in his second year as a starter Roethlisberger became the youngest QB to ever win a Super Bowl and collected his first 50 NFL wins faster than any QB in history.
Meanwhile, Flacco has a TD to INT ratio of 14 to 12 this year, has a QB rating of 80.3 and has been all but invisible and a non factor in the playoffs thus far with regard to completing 9 of 23 tosses for 135 yds against Miami and completing 11 of 22 tosses for 161 yds against Tennessee...
...the point that I am trying to make is that Flacco is getting ALOT of hype leading up to this contest at Pittsburgh, I have already layed out the reasons as to why I think the Raven defense is tired and can be run on...
...and if Pittsburgh can run on Baltimore like I think they will, stay relatively turnover free as they usually do, and put points on the scoreboard, the Ravens will then be forced to give young Flacco a much larger role and there-in lies the question...
..."Would you rather have a proven commodity like Roethlisberger directing your offense in playoff crunch time or would you rather have an unproven and over hyped rookie?
Those that don't think that Raven LB Ray Lewis has missed a step and is slowing down might want to take a look at the video I am including as it shows just how bad Willie Parker made him look on several occasions when these two teams last met...
...now that Parker is fully healthy and the Raven defense is tired, Lewis will in all liklihood look worse this week.
http://www.viddler.com/explore/PostGameHeroes/videos/42/
PITTSBURGH -5.5 over Baltimore
Sunday 01/18/09 6:30 pm est
5*****BEST BET
Take care and be well my friends
Dirtydog
:wink:
