Dial's Soccer

[DialSquares]

i believe i've had 3 straight losing posting days. Like most cappers, I am go through streaks so i'm still capping but not playing for now. Once it is going back according to plan, I will post again. I don't look for excuses but i do wonder at this time of the year how much weather plays a factor, especially for us over players. :drink:

i took 3 austria 2 overs the other day and went 0-3. You could just pick names out of a hat and get 2 right usually.

Oh well -- good luck with the plays.

 

[chris1987]

havent the majority of those games gone under lately?

 

[eddieshore]

i believe i've had 3 straight losing posting days. Like most cappers, I am go through streaks so i'm still capping but not playing for now. Once it is going back according to plan, I will post again. I don't look for excuses but i do wonder at this time of the year how much weather plays a factor, especially for us over players. :drink:

i took 3 austria 2 overs the other day and went 0-3. You could just pick names out of a hat and get 2 right usually.

Oh well -- good luck with the plays.

GL for your next plays then

 

[DialSquares]

thanks - i don't mind losing as much as most - this is still in the hobby stages for me. (don't talk about them market though) but i don't like the idea of posting losers.

Chris - still a lot of overs in the tradition over leagues just not the ones i am playing. But definitely looks like the unders have taken over the overs.

 

[DialSquares]

France Le Championnat
Bordeaux v Valenciennes
Bordeaux AH-1 -120
by far my favourite bet of the day...so far. Bordeaux needs a win pretty bad and valenciennes is a brutal road team. In 8 games, 2Gf and 11Ga. 0W 2D 6L. Bordeaux has not lost at home and 6W 3D. Very possible push possibilities (that's awesome) but bordeaux was a few 2 goal wins and with Uefa spots slowly drifting away needs to come out huge today.

Germany Bundesliga II
Alemania Aachen v 1860 Munich
Alemania Aachen -120

Aachen 6W 0D 1L at home...only lost against a very good road team Ahlen. Munich is a solid road team and in good form so this is not a slam dunk.

 

[DialSquares]

i got 10 mins to get these out so no time for explanation...mostly using stats for reasoning as normal.

Germany Bundesliga II
Ahlen v VfL Osnabruck
over 2.5 -143

Duisburg v Kaiserslautern
draw +240

St Pauli v TuS Koblenz
St Pauli AH-1 +103

Wehen v Augsburg
over -105
FT Score 1-1 +550 to cover the over

Germany 3.Liga
Unterhaching v Carl Zeiss Jena
over 2.5 -111
not recommended really - unter only 1 over in 9 games at home. However, i've committed to playing all jena road overs until it starts losing money. 6 overs and 2 unders so far.

---
all odds at bet365 but i am sure they are better odds out there. I apologize for being a bit disorganized. Did all the stat research earlier today and hadn't planned on a saturday night poker game which is starting right now....my blinds are being played as we speak.

more to come tomorrow.

 

[DialSquares]

was lucky to be on the right sides for all those late goals with only my beloved road team Jena only messing up a perfect morning.

27-18 +357

As mentioned before, Sunday 11 am EST Spain games all overs....no stats, reasoning etc...just bet them and 3 out of 5 will happen (at least that's the plan )

Spain Primera Liga
D Coruna v Malaga
over 2.5 -105

Mallorca v Rec de Huelva
over 2.5 -118

Numancia v Almeria
over 2.5 +108

Osasuna v Valladolid
over 2.5 +130

Racing Santander v Athletic Bilbao
over 2.5 +105

Germany Bundesliga I
Wolfsburg v Hannover
Wolfsburgh AH-1 -104 -pinnacle
--i think this is probably a popular bet so usually i skip em but it is hard to ignore wolfsburgh home record vs hannover road record (although nearly cost us with St Pauli)

Cologne v Hamburg
draw +238
--very tough match to call so went with the draw...makes sense?

Barclays Premier League
Everton v Aston Villa
draw +220

Portugal Superliga
Rio Ave v Naval
draw +210

1 out of 3 draws will be good.

 

[Martinga]

was lucky to be on the right sides for all those late goals with only my beloved road team Jena only messing up a perfect morning.

27-18 +357

As mentioned before, Sunday 11 am EST Spain games all overs....no stats, reasoning etc...just bet them and 3 out of 5 will happen (at least that's the plan )

Spain Primera Liga
D Coruna v Malaga
over 2.5 -105

Mallorca v Rec de Huelva
over 2.5 -118

Numancia v Almeria
over 2.5 +108

Osasuna v Valladolid
over 2.5 +130

Racing Santander v Athletic Bilbao
over 2.5 +105

Germany Bundesliga I
Wolfsburg v Hannover
Wolfsburgh AH-1 -104 -pinnacle
--i think this is probably a popular bet so usually i skip em but it is hard to ignore wolfsburgh home record vs hannover road record (although nearly cost us with St Pauli)

Cologne v Hamburg
draw +238
--very tough match to call so went with the draw...makes sense?

Barclays Premier League
Everton v Aston Villa
draw +220

Portugal Superliga
Rio Ave v Naval
draw +210

1 out of 3 draws will be good.

Great calls on the OVERS for the Spanish LA LIGA

I decided over on all games was a bit too risky, but i did bet O18 goals for the 7 goals

best of luck

 

[DialSquares]

there is no reasoning behind it but the 5 games at 11am EST - as long as the weather is nice - seems to hit 3 out of 5. Sometimes we get 2 out of 5 but never 4. But even seeing a +130 makes you think no way but those hit more then the -118 -125.

now if everton (or the ref) would have held onto the draw would have been a much better 11am.

--if my calculations are right - you need 1 goal in the last 2 games for a win? - i don't want to jinx you but i would be shocked to see a 0-0 madrid/sevilla game

 

[Martinga]

there is no reasoning behind it but the 5 games at 11am EST - as long as the weather is nice - seems to hit 3 out of 5. Sometimes we get 2 out of 5 but never 4. But even seeing a +130 makes you think no way but those hit more then the -118 -125.

now if everton (or the ref) would have held onto the draw would have been a much better 11am.

--if my calculations are right - you need 1 goal in the last 2 games for a win? - i don't want to jinx you but i would be shocked to see a 0-0 madrid/sevilla game

Don't worry about the jinx, Real betis just scored one. 19 goals total atm, hence i win my bet


Galatasaray also won 3-0 (I made a parlay with Galatasaray, Deportivo La Coruna and Ajax winning). So i'm doing pretty good atm.

Good luck with your bets

 

[DialSquares]

30-23 +177

Thinking an over day today despite it being monday.

Denmark Super Ligaen
FC Nordsjaelland v AGF Aarhus
over 2.5 -125 stanjames

FCN hitting 62% overs and AGF 69% overs. FCN in bad form but plenty of goals 8 Gf 14 Ga in the past 6. AGF only 8 Gf and 6Ga in past 6. Home over v away overs isn't the greatest . A bit risky but i like the over.

Barclays Premier League
West Ham v Tottenham
over 2.5 -105 - bet365 - slightly better prices out there but not with my books
FT score 1-1 +600 - cover the over bet
this game has a draw feeling to it and both teams have enough quality to net one. 10 of the past 13 games h2h at West Ham were overs or 1-1 scores. Both teams are hitting at 53% over but West Ham 5 overs and 2 unders at home and spurs 5 overs and 2 unders on the road. Someone wins 2-1 if you ask me but who???? - no idea.

Coca-Cola League Championship
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Southampton +0.5 +100 bet365
Can't ignore southampton record vs Palace. Only 1 win in past 6 game at home for Palace. Recent wins on the road against Reading, and Preston and undefeated in the past 4. If you were leaning to palace it is probably a good bet I just feel southampton gets at least a point and maybe win outright.

France Ligue 2
Amiens v Strasbourg
draw +205 - betfair
Amiens 4 draws in 8 games at home, strasbourgh 3 draws in 7 road games. It is monday and I see odds as low as +162. Always need luck for draws but as good as a draw on the board today imo.

 

[DialSquares]

33-21 +65
french draw saved a complete embarassment...overthought the crystal palace game. jumped out of my chair late in the west ham game so lost the bet but got the thrill. It's like a win for me....

I mentioned a few times probably that i am plein awful when it comes to CL and this is probably the worst day to bet it so i figured I'd play a full card...I do take my picks serious and look at games in depth but i haven't learnt to take the gambling part seriously.

UEFA Champions League
Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Marseille +103
OVER 2.5 -104

PSV v Liverpool
PSV +200 - pinnacle

over 2 goals -138

Roma v Bordeaux
over 2.5 +103

Barcelona v Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar +1 -127 - pinnacle comes through again
Shakhtar to win +550 - insanely small
i just think barcelona will be focused on the weekend match and the reserves are not betting then donetsk...at least not better then 2 goals.

Werder Bremen v Inter Milan
Inter Milan pk -116
--played of the day imo but only the pk and not a straight win.

Basel v Sporting
Basel pk +100
pride on the line for basel and sporting playing for nothing. Good draw game but if we see a winner it can be basel.

Panathinaikos v Anorthosis Famagusta
Panathinaikos -145
well i might as well play them all today so i think the best chance here is a panathinaikos win.

i think over 2 goals in PSV and Inter are the best 2 bets but other than the Shakhtar ML bet all the same amount.

GL today - definitely need it ... and no midweek Championship league games...got burnt just enought times to know it is a bad idea.

 

[DialSquares]

adding anytime Goal Scorers:

Nicolas Anelka -125 ---insane value - biggest AGS bet but still small
Michael Ballack +175 - due to score one
Marco Streller +175 - wanted to bet frei too but won't let me
Moutinho +300
Julio Baptista +188
Adriano +188
Mancini +260
Krkic Bojan -110
Oleksandr Hladkyi +300
Rodrigues Jadson +333
Bakari Kone +140
Hatem Ben Arfa +225
Vangelis Mantzios +140
Silva Cleyton +188

very small here...and mostly just for fun.

 

[DialSquares]

well says it is 'light rain' in spain (not sure if it is falling mostly on the plain) but still going to go with the blind over betting in la liga. Just bet overs and pray for 3 out of 5. Don't ask questions or get puzzled by stats just bet it...haha...doesn't work every week and i hope the weather isn't too bad. Some over 2 instead of all over 2.5 today.

so:
Almeria v Racing Santander
over 2 -125
Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Gijon
over 2.5 -123
Getafe v Mallorca
over 2.5 -105
Rec de Huelva v Osasuna
over 2 -131
Valladolid v D Coruna
over 2.5 +122

all lines at pinnacle.

 

[DialSquares]

missed a spanish game
Málaga v Numancia
over 2.5 +103

--no time to count it but west ham AH +2 -131 looks like a great bet. Don't really see chelsea winning by 3 today. Might push this though.

 

[DialSquares]

for what it is worth (and sorry for the lateness)

Scottish Premier League:
[10]Motherwell FC - Kilmarnock[7]
draw +241

German II
[3]FC Kaiserslautern - SC Freiburg[2]
draw +247

Italy serie B
[2]US Sassuolo Calcio - Ancona[15]
draw +218

---went small on draws as usual. Really 1 normal size bet for all 3. Never like giving money back made on the weekend on monday so 3 draws out to keep me occupied enough.

GL - always need it on draw day.

 

[DialSquares]

believe it or not i have 30 plays i like for tomorrow in England/Holland. Overnight (for me) line movement will eliminate a lot of the plays but since some games are before 9 am EST i will post the pre-10am games that i like. Plan is to get up for the liverpool game at 7am EST be we will see about that. All lines at pinnacle

England - Premier League
Everton Sunderland
Everton -121

West Bromwich Tottenham
over 2.5 -102

West Bromwich Tottenham
West Brom pk +0.5 +111

Netherlands - Eredivisie
FC Utrecht Roda JC
Utrecht pk -0.5 -129


leaning towards playing *almost certain unless late team news/crazy line movement

Reading -112
crystal palace AH0 -103
Swasea +0.5 +113
QPR -108
peterborough pk +0.5 -114
tranmere -115
Coventry City Sheffield Wednesday draw +267

I think Ajax/Az/Arsenal (AAA) is a nice accumulator. With the amount of snow i've got here, AAA is a necessity almost. Pays +128 at bet365 is full of fun.

sorry for no reasoning - been spending the last couple hours researching and watching the other football.

 

[DialSquares]

added:

England - Championship
Bristol City Crystal Palace
Crystal AH0 -102

Cardiff CityPlymouth Argyle
Cardiff -0.5 -1 -120

Coventry City Sheffield Wednesday
under 2.5 -130
draw +256

Doncaster Burnley
under 2.5 -135

Queens Park RangersWatford
QPR -118

Southampton Reading
Reading -124

England - League One
Cheltenham Peterborough United
Peterborough pk -0.5 -118

Colchester Utd. Leyton Orient
under 2.5 -112

Tranmere Walsall
Tranmere -119

England - League Two
Bournemouth Barnet
draw +270

Bradford Morecambe
under 2.5 -110

Luton Lincoln City
under 2.5 -113

England - Premier League
Blackburn Man City
draw +235

my 5 favourite plays are:
QPR, Cardiff, Crystal, Reading and Tranmere but i play them all the same today.

ps - i know that's too many plays

 

[DialSquares]

For some reason i really like these plays today - not going higher than my normal stakes but I like em.

Scotland Division One
Morton v Partick
Morton AH0 -144
if you can only play the ML i'd probably still play it but for less. Morton near the bottom of the standings but impressive 4W 3D 1L home record including 4 straight home wins. Their only lost came in week 2 against leaders livingston. Partick is higher in the standing but last on the road with a 1W 2D 5L record. A Morton win would see them leapfrog many teams and out of the relegation playoff spot. Great home team vs weak road team with a draw being a push is a cracker here...imo.

Dunfermline v Livingston
over 2.5 -112

Dunfermline hitting 53% over while livingston are 65% over. 6 overs and 3 unders in 9 road matches for livingston. I do worry about the 1-1 draw here but a win for one team would see them only 5 point back of promotion with a game in hand. Weather looks good as well.

Barclays Premier League
Hull v Villa
Villa -0.5 +100

the popular pick will be the over. Hull hitting over 74% and villa always willing to be in a soccer shootout (4 goals ... haha) . The reason i do not like the over is villa defends well on the road. Giving up 11 goals in 9 road games. On the other hand, Hull only 10 goals score in 9 home games. This game definitely has an over chance but my feeling is it will be tighter then first thought. But i wouldn't bet the under either.

Villa 4 out of the last 5 road games were wins against West Ham, Everton, Arsenal and Wigan. Hull 18th (out of 20) in home record with only 3 wins. The 3 home wins came against poor clubs Sunderland, Wigan and Fulham. Fulham is a good club but dreadful on the road.

For villa, if they want any realistic chance of top 4 they must win this game. Although a point is enough to claim 4th at the end of the year, I think a draw will be a dissapointment. 1-0 2-0 villa win but maybe 3-2 4-2 as well. As long as villa wins i'll be happy.

With all 3 games i do think there is a draw potential.

 

[DialSquares]

double my bet on villa at -101 --- rare play for me so that can't be good.