Dial's Soccer

[DialSquares]

Going to devote some time all week at looking back on the record of teams playing a midweek CL game. I've always thought it went the way it did this weekend but i want to make sure this wasn't a fluke.

Usually I would give some money back that was won on the weekend on mondays. So Monday is play draws for small day. Still have some action but the bets are small so it doesn't really affect my book if it goes 0 for. Generally I hit 1 out of 3 and sometimes we get lucky and hit 2. And we do have the 0-3 days 3-0 days. I bet draws in 3s because if you hit 1 out of 3 there is usually a small profit. But the bet is small and mostly just to catch up on work while there is sufficent distractions. So today:

Denmark Super Ligaen
Randers FC v Midtjylland
draw +240
Randers 8 draws in 14 games. At home 5 draws in 7 games. Draws at home include game against 1st Copenhagen, 7th Aalborg BK and already one against 4th place Midtjylland. Midjylland not a great draw team but decent on the road. Only 3 draws in 14 games overall but 2 draws in 6 games on the road.

Israel Premier League
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Maccabi Tel Aviv
draw +210
Hapoel drawn 2 in 4 home games, maccabi 1 draw in 4 road games. Maccabi draw came against 5th place Beitar and hapoel sit 6th. Hapoel 2 draws came against 3rd Mac.Petach T. and 1st Maccabi Haifa and maccabi is in 8th. The fact that the road team is a slight favourite but further down the standings leads me to believe in the draw. I thought the home team would be favoured here and it is a derby so draws also possible anyhow. It is known as "The Big Derby" in Israel.

England Coca-Cola League Championship
Barnsley v Burnley
draw +230
no really reasoning. H2h in barnsely has 2 draws in 5 games. Burnley 3 draws in 9 games on the road, barnsely only 2 in 9 home games. Really don't like any others today so threw this one in to make it the 3rd game. The fact that odds for both a road win and home win is the same doesn't yield a ton of draws. But it sures makes you think 'DRAW'.

Personally think the 1st game has the best shot today. As i said, i always bet these small and (i hope the board don't mind) don't count it towards my record.

_____

 

[DialSquares]

one real bet for today:

Hansa Rostock under 3 goals
Everton AH+0.5
pays +102

no time to explain but i like the idea of everton drawing and it would still see a winner. Under 3.5 + the AH pays -133 ... i tormented for about 2 mins on taking that but greedily took the above even money... if it pushes and i win the small everton +0.5 i'll kick myself but i'll still be happy.

that emoticon pope raising his hands is very distracting

 

[JohnMolson]

under is in but need everton to tie this up

 

[DialSquares]

i figured we were good with at least everton drawing. Wigan injuries and everton's road record was promising. Maybe that was reason enough to take wigan:think2:

15-7 +414

 

[JohnMolson]

Any champions league tomorrow ???

 

[DialSquares]

i don't bet champions league or cup. I generally just bet very small anytime goal scorers. I finally decided after years of losing that in group stages i don't bet. I play the proline pools banking a couple at $20 and hope for the best. Never win that either though

If i see a play i like i might follow but i don't like suggesting bets...i could give you some good fade material though

 

[DialSquares]

i rarely dip below German 3rd liga but a decent looking bet is available.

Germany Regionalliga North
Chemnitzer v Sachsen Leipzig
Chemnitzer -150

Chemnitzer on good form including a draw to Wolfburg II and beating near bottom Hamburger II. Most recent a 4-0 thumping on the road against 8th place VFC Plauen. Sachsen recent losses include at home to 11th 93 Altona and 9th FC Oberneuland and a road lost to 15th Türkiyemspor. Chemnitzer not a great home team but this bet is mostly a form bet more than anything. A home win will help them stay out of the near relagtion zone.

Don't follow these leagues very much and no idea on team news but at least the weather looks good

 

[DialSquares]

with apologies to chriscol for stealing some plays here is what i am playing in england. Anytime goal scorers in the champions league to follow.....

England League 2
Shrewsbury v Dag & Red
over 2.5 -143
Mostly a Dag and Red road over bet. 7 overs and 1 under. Shrewsbury usually plays its part as well 6 overs and 2 unders in 8 games at home. Usually when the over is so clear on record it dissapoints but it is hard to ignore those stats.

Darlington v Chester
Darlington AH-1 -125
agree with chriscol here. As I said in his thread h2h at darlington yield 4 straight 1-0 wins. But I don't know if Chester's been this bad esp on the road before going into the game. Including the FA Cup Chester 4 straight losses.

---- invite to a lunch so i got to go back with the rest shortly. I am taking the free food (maybe i'll sneak a pint as well) over sharing more picks...hope the board don't mind:lol:

 

[DialSquares]

no time now to look at others.

smallest bets go to anytime goal scorers for me.

Anytime goal scorers:
Franck Ribery +175
Lisandro Lopez +188
Daniel Guiza +175
Alex +188
Gonzalez Raul +175
Adrian Mutu +110
Carlos Alberto Vela +110 - love it
Fabregas +260

1st goal scorer parlay
mutu
vela
raul
pays +14900

all these bets are for small.

 

[DialSquares]

17-8 +421
2-6 anytime goal scorers (started off really well) -237

Rare Champions League Play.
CFR Cluj-Napoca v Roma
Roma -110
Roma clearly playing much better than when they first played cluj. Once in awhile I think the bookies throw out an odd to try and convince you to take cluj on some kind of handicap. It may turn out that the bookies win yet again, but at near even it is tough not to take Roma here.

Also betting Roma AH -1 at +156 and will gladly take the push here.

Normal stakes though but i do like it

 

[DialSquares]

super small plays:
Anytime goal scorers:
Joe Cole +225
Ibrahimovic -125
Muntari +300
Maxi +200
Baptista +200
Perrotta +200
Diego +200
Pizarro +125
Taher Hawar +500
Savio +400
Gerrard +140 - love it
Liedson +225
Messi +140
da Silva Luiz Adriano +260
Fernandinho +333

2 teamer 1st goal scorer
ibrahimovic
aguero
pays +1632

3 teamer anytime g-scorer
Torres, Aguero and Ibrahimovic pays +371

i don't think these plays are wise but it is for small and in the long run doesn't affect my bottom line enough to stop...and it is so much fun

 

[DialSquares]

19-8 +667.
10-15 anytime goal scorer +168

I think the bookies got it handed to them in the roma game but probably took some back with inter and maybe that late bordeaux game.

--I don't bet UEFA cup ever and look forward to friday. GL tomorrow.

 

[DialSquares]

Copa Sudamericana
Estudiantes LP v Internacional RS
Estudiantes LP +110
FT score 1-1 to cover bet +500

clearly a tough game with strong draw possibilities. Seems Estudiantes wins at home and draws on the road. I think this will be 2 home teams winning and come down to away goals or extra time. If this ends in a draw most likely 1-1 - very typical first leg score line. Still decent profit with an estudiantes win even with the mini-hedge.

Very tough game to predict imo....

 

[DialSquares]

19-9 +547

a 2 teamer jumped out at me so playing a Uefa Cup game afterall.

CSKA Moscow + Galatasaray pays +111
moscow is rolling in the cup so far. Very impressive russian campaign (which is over) so full concentration can be put towards the cup...just like zenit last year. Despite the 1-0 lost to end the year, beating winners Rubin 4-0 and fk moscow 4-1 very nice. As well, big road win against Feyenoord and a 3-0 win against Spainish Deportivo. Just hope the mob hasn't put money on Poznan. As for Gala, very tough to play in turkey as you know. Metalist Kharkiv did beat fellow Turkish team Besiktas in the last round, however, they did lose 1-0 on the road in turkey. Gala undefeated at home in the domestic league with only one draw coming in the 2nd game of the year. 1-0 win at home against Olympiakos and i see a similar result today. (and betting a turkey team on american thanksgiving just makes sense)

Doesn't work out at times taking two home favs in the Uefa Cup (at least my experience) but it looks good enough to bet.

was leaning towards taking Hamburg and tottenham above even has value but i do fear a road draw here. Braga v Wolfsburg draw might be played if the 2 teamer wins.

 

[DialSquares]

19-10 +447 - 2 straight losses.

a bit of weird one to start:

3 teamer
Venlo - Holland Jupiler League
over 2 goals Kaiserslautern v Alemania Aachen German II
Paderborn AH0
pays -107

i think the odds for paderborn and over 2.5 goals in the german II game are a little short today. Both sitting at the -143 -147 range. If both push and venlo win pays -350.

Usually like german II but very difficult today so only the 2 goal play in the parlay.

Germany Regionalliga West
Rot-Weiss Essen v Elversberg
Rot-Weiss Essen AH -0.5 -125

Germany Regionalliga South
TSV 1860 Munchen II v Hessen Kassel
Over 2.5, 3 -108

Austria Erste Klasse
FC Trenkwalder Admira v Leoben DSV
over 3 -105

FC Wacker Innsbruck v FC Gratkorn
Over 2.5,3.0 +102

Austria Lustenau v FC RFE Vocklabruck
over 2.5,3.0 +113

gl

 

[DialSquares]

too much math late at night to figure out that record ... down some more friday. The early German games will determine my whole day...if it is starting out poorly then done for the day. German III and beyond is generally my strongest area so we'll see. Still trying to get my foot in this forum's door.

Germany 3.Liga
Union Berlin v Erzgebirge Aue
over 2.5 -125
Both teams been scoring/conceeding on a recent basis. Berlin 10gf-7Ga in past 6 and Aue 11Gf-6Ga. Berlin 5 overs and 3 unders at home while Aue has 6 overs and 2 unders. 1-1 score is a possibility but hopefully someone gets a winner as i see both teams scoring.

Wuppertaler v Jahn Regensburg
over 2.5 -125
Wuppertaler form is crazy goal. 6 games 10Gf-12Ga. Jahn always seems to get a goal on the road and conceeds plenty. Over at home vs overs on the road matches here too.

Carl Zeiss Jena v Fortuna Dusseldorf
VFB Stuttgart II v Kickers Emden
Eintracht Braunschweig v Unterhaching
all 3 draws at +230..
1/3 normal bet on all three - 1 for small profit. Partly due to the odds but the number of draws, position of teams in the standings, home v road all sorta fit. None of them are Man U v Villarreal obvious draws but i think one can hit.

Coca-Cola Championship
Wolverhampton v Birmingham
over 2.5 -125
FT Score 1-1 +500 - a little more than covering the over bet

Just can't help betting this game as it is probably the game in england saturday. Only 2 out of 10 h2h in wolverhampton has it gone under (one was 1-1 score). Wolves 79 % overs and 6 overs 3 unders at home. Birmingham 37% - but 4 overs and 5 unders on the road. Of the 5 unders 4 of them were 1-1 scoreline. Only a 1-0 lost to QPR was an under and not 1-1. 3 unders for Wolves were all 2-0 wins against much weaker oppenents (but they all were against teams that started with the letter "B" hmmm???????)

I use recent games against the same opponent at times and:

Wolves beat Swansea 2-1 at home and Birmingham beat Swansea 3-2 on the road.

As i said before, this good on paper doesn't always win but I am on max stakes on the over with a 1-1 score to cover (and make small profit).

Live in play game so there's always room to hedge but 1-1 HT would be a very nice early morning gift for the soccer gods.

GL tomorrow - time to turn these past 2 days around.

 

[DialSquares]

1-1 ft score was the most obvious play today and i blew it by thinking there would be a winner. 0-0 ht so i'll take the small profit. Scoreless second half gonna kill the union over...funny how that works sometimes.

Too tight to call in the EPL so going back to the very small plays on anytime goal scorers:

Gabriel Agbonlahor -110
Afonso Alves +140
Tuncay Sanli +188
mido last goal scorer +650
Djibril Cisse +140
Kenwyne Jones +140
Geovanni +275

all small

 

[DialSquares]

23-15 +125 - glad that week ended. These games on monday are a little fishy but I see home teams doing very well. Usually don't bet on monday as it is tricky but hoping today is an exception to the norm.

English Double:
Liverpool - EPL
Reading - English Championship
pays +100
looks too easy to me so i am wondering if reading will blow it. The reading game is a live-in play so if Liverpool are leading I might hedge a Reading draw if that game is 0-0 1-1. If it isn't a live-in play maybe betting the double with a Reading draw +300 might be wise.

Double:
Lens - French 2
Cluj - Romania
pays -109
---French 2 on Monday can be very unusual. But Lens only 1 lost at home and outscores opponents 12-3. One lost at home did come on a monday but that was against FC Metz who are a lot better than Sedan.

Denmark Super Ligaen
AGF Aarhus v Odense BK
over 2.5 -125
another one that seems too good to be true. Aarhus 6 overs and 1 under at home and odense exact record but on the road. Weather looks good. Might be the play of the day for me but always bet the same.

Finally - the rare (and never wins) home heavy fav parlay:

Liverpool
Reading
Cluj - romania
Lens - French 2
Porto - portugal
Benifa - portugal
pays +509 - --- who draws here?

 

[eddieshore]

Dial I just saw you were on that over Aarhus, great bud :toast:

I've just posted two overs in my thread for this week. I also have other leans for overs this week:

Morecambe/Cheltenham
Stoke City/Derby
Werder Bremen II/Wacker Burghausen
Northwich/Wrexham and Wrexham -0.5
Manchester United/Blackburn and Manchester United -1
Mansfield/Oxford United gotta love sunday's firing of Oxford's general manager here
Valencia/Club Brugge

I haven't yet look at friday's card

 

[eddieshore]

Oh, don't miss out on my fetish over team sunday Rapid Vienna... OVER VIENNA should be it's nickname lol

Of course it has had a few unders but as of late they have been on fire...