Dial Squares March Soccer Picks

[DialSquares]

Monday March 22nd

Norway Tippeligaen
Rosenborg v IK Start
over 3 goals 2.05 - 0.95 to win 1 unit

i really don't follow my own rules about betting too early in league plays as this is only the 2nd game for both clubs. Both clubs scored 2 goals in their first and H2H in Rosenberg have 8 straight over 2.5 goals (if 1995 stats means anything). Anything can happen but i like the chances of at least 3 goals even though it is far too early to know what's going on.

Sweden Allsvenskanliga
IFK Goteborg v BK Hacken
Over 2.25 goals 1.80 - 1.25 units to win 1 unit.
not much difference than the norway bet...too early to be betting it but after 1 game and H2H does lean to overs..

Coca-Cola League One
Leeds United v Millwall
both teams to score? YES 1.90 - 1.1 units to win 1 unit
seems like someone wins 2-1...i'm not completely sold on the idea millwall was get a result despite the great form and the stubbling of leeds. 1-1 FT Score would also not surprise me either....

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March Record:
17-23-3 -1.6 units
March Week IV:
0-0-0 0 units

 

[chriscol]

not to invade your thread with it, but i am looking right now for news about the chievo-catania match and came up with the following from last wednesday http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/opinion/k-anand/56888-want-a-sure-win-football-tip-

and have you see the match highlights..the 1-1 was a strange penalty, but definetely catania goalie was not involved in the fix...he saved it from being 4-0 chievo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMFcFAmyE8g

 

[DialSquares]

millwall scoring so early i thought i had that one in the bag...i think i learnt my stay away from leeds lesson finally.

chriscol - very nice read. There is so many games i find out is suppose to be a fixed draw and it doesn't happen, so i don't read too much into them. Most of the time they don't hit...but for a game to have such low odds on a draw and taken off the board right away, it is a bit weird. Maybe the smell of draw brought in all the money in and it just happened to hit. And the fact 1-1 was hammered is no surprise...if it's going to draw 1-1 is a popular bet. I counted about 24 in serie A this season.

Unless UEFA or italian governing football body come out with anything i will remain suspicious. I just wish i believed in the fixes this time around. But i am sure those guys that won money based on a 'fixed games' are down quite a bit from the ones that didn't hit.

 

[roundrobin11]

wow chriscol, thanks alot for that article. unbelievable, you really hate to hear that that goes on. Thanks for bringing this to my attention as well Dial Squares. I just wish i saw the article before the game lol

 

[DialSquares]

next fix game i get i'll post it days before...haha...but that one hitting means the next 4-5 will not....:toast:
French Cup
AS Monaco v Sochaux-Montbéliard
AS Monaco ml 1.9 - 1.1 to win 1 unit.

i am certain betting monaco just because they have beaten lyon and bordeaux to get to the quarters is a dumb reason but it is my main one. Why bother beat those teams just to lose to 14th in ligue 1 Sochaux...but monaco have already won 2-0 at home in league play and are 9-3-3 at home in ligue 1. Sochaux 2-5-7 on the road and have only scored 6 goals in the 14 games. Both clubs are struggling in league play but at home Monaco drew to Bordeaux and beat Boulogne and Nice. Only losing to Marseille (89th minute winner) in 8 games. Stats can obviously be chucked for cups but if you look at the path to the quarters for both teams, monaco certainly had a tougher go...


Good luck today....so many games maybe this was a tough one to bet today....we will see of course.

 

[DialSquares]

did sochaux really score from the halfway line????? ugh

 

[DialSquares]

been a tough go this month...down a few units...no time for reasoning today..

Spain Primera Liga
Getafe v Real Madrid
over 3 goals 1.89 - 1.11 to win 1 unit

Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao +0.5 2.06 - 0.94 to win 1 unit

Italy Serie A
Napoli v Juventus
Over 2.25 goals 1.85 - 1.18 units to win 1 unit

___________
March 18-27-3 -3.95 units
March Week IV: 1-4 -2.35 units

 

[DialSquares]

Austria Erste Klasse
FC Wacker Innsbruck v FC Gratkorn
over 3 goals -137 - 1.37 to win 1 unit
i think innsbruck are capable of scoring 3 on their own so it might come down to whether gratkorn can score on their own. Gratkorn have been averaging a goal for in their last 6 while giving up 2. Grat. 9 overs in 11 road matches (6 of their last 7 road games with at least 3 goals) and Wacker 8 overs in 11 home games. (6 of the last 7 home games over 2.5 goals). Wacker tends to crush the poorer clubs at home 6-0 Hartberg and 7-0 Dornbirn. Gratkorn is not a poor club but have been in bad form.

League Of Ireland Premier Division:
Sporting Fingal v Drogheda United
Sporting Fingal AH-1 1.86 - 1.16 to win 1 unit
I'm a big fan of taking newly promoted teams at home early in the season. And Sporting Fingal I think will have a successful season despite being the new guy....even going to see them in europe this year. Slow start for Drogheda United who barely escaped relegation last season. Improved squad but maybe a bit of team to gel together...at least wait one more game. Very early to go by anything other than feel i guess...and maybe shouldn't be risking anything in this league yet but i do think home win (big stretch..haha) and hopefully we get it by more than a goal.

Bohemians v Sligo Rovers
Bohemians AH-1 2.10 - 0.90 to win 1 unit.
If this was mid-season i'd say it was a great bet...being so early who knows but i do think home win here too. 6 straight H2H wins at home for Bohemians in league play vs Sligo. Started the season 3-0 including two road games and a 1-0 win vs Fingal at home. Again very little to go by but Bohemians 14-2-2 at home last season and really no reason to think they won't equal that record...and the H2H is appealling. And i don't like much else today...haha.

Good luck....so early we will need it.

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March 20-27-3 -2.89 units
March Week IV: 3-4 -1.29 units (corrected: I gave myself 1 more lost yesterday then i had)

 

[roundrobin11]

Dial Squares, where in ontario are you from?

 

[DialSquares]

haha...just wrote on your thread...Timmins. Look way up north and you'll find me...haha...

following on bet365 and a missed penalty kick in the austrian match 8 mins in...might be one of those days

 

[DialSquares]

got back a whole 0.10 unit friday..haha...not that i am complaining...took a 5th minute stoppage time goal for the austrain push.

German Bundesliga II
Karlsruhe v Fortuna Dusseldorf
Under 2.5 1.80 -1.25 to win 1 unit
both teams are under teams this season esp. home/away and formwise is leaning under. Three straight 1-0 games for karlsruhe and against teams much more prone to play overs. Dusseldorf always stuggle to score on the road with just 13 goals in 13 games and have played 4 straight unders. I do worry about the idea that a draw does not help either team really but both might be tight and if there is a goal will be defended at all costs. 1-0 someone imo....

i'd like to take cottbus draw no bet but just don't know. Tough one...see what happens in the morning.

 

[chriscol]

got back a whole 0.10 unit friday..haha...not that i am complaining...took a 5th minute stoppage time goal for the austrain push.

German Bundesliga II
Karlsruhe v Fortuna Dusseldorf
Under 2.5 1.80 -1.25 to win 1 unit
both teams are under teams this season esp. home/away and formwise is leaning under. Three straight 1-0 games for karlsruhe and against teams much more prone to play overs. Dusseldorf always stuggle to score on the road with just 13 goals in 13 games and have played 4 straight unders. I do worry about the idea that a draw does not help either team really but both might be tight and if there is a goal will be defended at all costs. 1-0 someone imo....

i'd like to take cottbus draw no bet but just don't know. Tough one...see what happens in the morning.

with you on the under, but will stay away from cottbus match. cottbus just not good,not even at home and the main problem here is that right now you have no idea what Bielefeld team will show up. if they play according to their potential like last week they should win, if they play like couple weeks before they are uninspired and can loose. these mood changes come out of nothing right now

 

[DialSquares]

don't think i saw 4-1 cottbus coming....oh well. Stayed away but at least the under held after a quick 2 goal second half (quickish)

feeling like an over day in the Championship and i do like 3 of them:

Coca-Cola League Championship
Watford v Middlesbrough
over 2.5 goals 2.10 - 0.90 to win 1 unit

Reading v West Brom
over 2.5 goals 1.85 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
-hopefully Reading can score one for us

Barnsley v Doncaster
over 2.5 goals 2.04 - 0.96 to win 1 unit

working on the record soon but still crapping games....capping..

 

[DialSquares]

the struggles in march continue....:think2:

Sweden Allsvenskanliga
GAIS v AIK
AIK Draw No Bet 1.72 - 1.37 to win 1 unit
In the last 6 matches in Gothenburg, AIK have managed at least a draw and with a slow start to the league, AIK will be hoping to get their first win. GAIS finished 11th last season and no really reason to think they won't be around that mark this year...and 4 wins at home in 2009 is not a great stat. Very early to go on this year stats or anything like that but i like the H2H record and AIK should contend for a Europe spot and will want a win after 2 draws.

Orebro SK v Mjallby
Orebro 1.85 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
not a ton to go by but i always think promotion teams struggle (for the most part) on the road early in the season. Orebro already beat promoted team Atvidaberg 2-0 at home this year. Mjallby finished 8 pointed higher last year than Atvidaberg and are the much better team and did manged to draw to last seasons winners AIK.

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March: 22-31-3 -4.83 units

 

[DialSquares]

well it is at a point where i don't know if i'd recommend betting these anymore...but it is bound to turn around sooner or later...

not much time for kickoff so i'll quickly post pick:

Sweden Allsvenskanliga
BK Hacken v Trelleborgs FF
BK Häcken -0.75 1.89 - 1.11 to win 1 unit.

more to come....

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March: 22-33-3 -7.83 units
March Week V: 0-2-0 -2.55 units

 

[DialSquares]

Coca-Cola League Championship
Cardiff v Leicester
draw 3.4 -0.42 to win 1 unit
with both clubs in the playoff spot and both playing tough games on the weekend, i think a midweek draw and go on is not a bad result. Not a ton of draws for either club and H2H hasn't yielded a draw since 2004. Not much a stat play but more the idea that both clubs wouldn't mind the draw. Hard to get these right anyway.

Watford v Crystal Palace
draw 3.3 - 0.44 to win 1 unit.
two clubs in relegation battles and both with poor forms. Wattford will certainly not want palace to gain 3 points on them and although they will no doubt want to win, i think draw isn't too terrible a result for them. Palace 3 road draws in their last 4 losing to Forrest last road game. I tend to like midweek draws anyway.

 

[DialSquares]

well most of the games start at 10:00 am EST so probably pointless to post but i did play some finnish cup games:

Finland Liigacup
HJK Helsinki v Jaro FF
HJK Helsinki AH-1 -137 - 1.37 to win 1 unit

JJK v TPS
TPS -105 - 1.05 to win 1 unit

VPS Vaasa v FC Inter Turku
FC Inter Turku AH0 -143 - 1.43 to win 1 unit

AC Oulu v Honka
Honka -119 - 1.19 to win 1 unit.

-record updated with my next plays - didn't calculate yesterday small winnings...

 

[DialSquares]

no reason to quit just because i'm giving all my betting money to the man....1-3 in finland...missed penalty and 2 times TPS had the lead and JJK came back. When it's hitting those things don't seem to happen as often..............hno:

Champions League
Internazionale v CSKA Moscow
over 2.5 goals 2.00 - 1.00 to win 1 unit

Arsenal v Barcelona
To score anytime: Vermaelen 9/1 - 0.12 to win 1 unit

Scotland Clydesdale Bank Premier League
Hibernian v Dundee United
Dundee United Draw No Bet 2.00 - 1.00 to win 1 unit

-sorry no write up

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March: 24-38-3 -9.85 units
March Week V: 2-7-0 -5.02 units