Dial Squares March Soccer Picks

[DialSquares]

i can easily see why someone would be the other side of both CL bets (although i don't anyone would bet Man U to qualify) but odds are way out of whack imo and in the long run you will always win money betting these odds. Even if they go 0-2 today.

UEFA Champions League
Man Utd v AC Milan
AC milan 5.5 - 0.23 to win 1 unit

Real Madrid v Olympique Lyonnais
Lyon to Qualify - 0.67 to win 1 unit.

i actually love the Lyon to qualify bet but i can be way off on these sometimes.

 

[DialSquares]

2 piss poor days in a row.

UEFA Europa League
Lille v Liverpool
Lille Draw No Bet 2.1 - 0.9 to win 1 unit
Over 2 goals 1.75 - 1.33 to win 1 unit
Lille European campaign has been all about trying to score goals. In the group stages, 5 overs and 1 under (2.5 goal mark). The one under being a 1-1 draw to valencia. Even in the knockout round vs Fenerbache Lille won the home leg 2-1 and 1-1 away. Liverpool will be short on defense with Fabio Aurelio out and Martin Skrtel and Daniel Agger perhaps hurt. Lille will also be missing "defenders Nicolas Plestan and Mathieu Debuchy" Debuchy played 23 games for them. (at least according to soccernet). Liverpool is still very capable of scoring but, as CL french side showed, do not underestimate french football. Both in the Europa campaign and domestic they have beaten Fenerbahce, Lyon, Bordeaux and Genoa.

I could see a 1-1 scoreline but Liverpool, much like Chelsea and Arsenal, would not mind the 2-1 scoreline to take back home.

Rubin Kazan v Wolfsburg
Rubin Kazan 2.00 - 1 unit to win 1 unit.
Much is talked about the long travel and conditions facing wolfsburg and i believe they are justified. Plus, Wolfsburg will be without their top player Grafite and defender Andrea Barzagli. Martins will take Grafite spot and i'm not entirely sold on him. Dzeko is a fine player but not the same without grafite. Kazan's season ended awhile back but they are coming off a 1-0 win vs CSKA Moscow in the super cup. As will in the very difficult CL group, Kazan held their own, beating Barca on the road and home draws vs Barca and Inter. I could see a draw here but German football has been overestimated these past few years and maybe Russian football a little underestimated.
------------------------------------------------
Overall since March 1st
11-9-1 +3.57 units

March week II
4-6-0 -1.08 units.

 

[DialSquares]

at least lille saved a 0 for...what a save by the lille goalie though....

not much time so nothing to say
Benfica v Marseille
over 2.5 1.9 - 1.10 to win 1 unit

i always bet french road overs in europe....always

Juventus v Fulham
Fulham AH+1 -139 - 1.39 to win 1 unit
Juve doesn't win by more than 1 and fulham concentrating hard on this cup - draw is my guess but i could see juve win by 1 for sure.

 

[DialSquares]

after a decent start to the month, i managed to give back all and then some. I believe down -0.25 units but wrong computer for the exact total. CL and Europa spanked me pretty hard esp yesterday. Sorry to anyone that followed my picks. I am hoping league play turn this around.

Germany Bundesliga II
Alemannia Aachen v Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld AH0 2.00 - 1.00 to win 1 unit

Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Union Berlin
Furth 2.05 - 0.95 to win 1 unit

Ahlen v TuS Koblenz
Ahlen Ah-0.25 1.90 - 1.1 to win 1 unit

sorry no time for writeups and maybe wait til i start winning again (unless you like 'em too of course)

 

[HacheMan]

Good Luck Dial

 

[chriscol]

after a decent start to the month, i managed to give back all and then some. I believe down -0.25 units but wrong computer for the exact total. CL and Europa spanked me pretty hard esp yesterday. Sorry to anyone that followed my picks. I am hoping league play turn this around.

Germany Bundesliga II
Alemannia Aachen v Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld AH0 2.00 - 1.00 to win 1 unit

Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Union Berlin
Furth 2.05 - 0.95 to win 1 unit

Ahlen v TuS Koblenz
Ahlen Ah-0.25 1.90 - 1.1 to win 1 unit

sorry no time for writeups and maybe wait til i start winning again (unless you like 'em too of course)

hey, i just saw we have the same plays today...hopefully a great day or us..BOL

 

[DialSquares]

the way it's going a don't know....

and of course Aachen scores the first goal hno:

good luck to you too...lots of time to turn it around.

 

[WayneBetzky]

Bielefeld ties it up then gives it right backhno: jerkoffs

 

[DialSquares]

no one wants to score in the 2nd half....when it's going this bad i eventually take the hint.

See you monday...fresh start and good luck on the weekend. Weather is too nice for northern ontario to stay home on the weekend anyway

:toast:

of course in furth and bielefeld score late i might come back.

 

[WayneBetzky]

Furth coming off a scoreless draw last week pulling the same shit today ^<<^

 

[DialSquares]

well nice weekend with my brother coming up and not looking or watching any football....go Inter! go CSKA! but no bets in the CL. The temperature here was crazy high last week but my picks were ice cold. More snow on my picks then in my yard that's for sure...new week so maybe new results.

English Championship
Barnsley v Nottingham Forest
barnsley draw no bet 1.9 - 1.1 to win 1 unit

barnsley with still a shot at a promotional playoff spot with only a 6 point deficit and 1 game in hand vs many teams. Nottingham is no doubt a top team but have struggled on the road losing to Preston, Leicester, Doncaster, Coventry and Derby in their last 5 road games. Barnsley 3-1-1 past 5 home games including wins vs Leicester and Blackpool. Crazy side note is home team has won 12 straight games with nottingham playing in it...not sure that is a big reason to bet it but seems bizarre to me. Strong draw chance but i like the draw no bet odds.

Swansea v West Brom
draw 3.25 - 0.45 to win 1 unit
top teams, midweek always has a draw chance. Swansea 4 home draws in their last 7 including a game against top club Newcastle. WBA shouldn't mind the draw as well...although they do not draw a lot compared to most teams, they did draw on the road against top half tabled teams Newcastle, Cardiff and Coventry. Always tough to get these draws but good chance here.

-------------------------------------------------------------
March: 12-16-1 -3.30 units
March Week 3: 0-0-0 0 units

 

[DialSquares]

probably a throwing money away day but:

with the 1-1 scorelines and even the 1-0 lille lead it appears we might get some extra timegames. So i have mixed it up a bit and only going with intuition about these things but my bets are all 'extra-time' bets.

So the only way to get to extra time (for some reason I cannot find a 'go to extra' bets beside penalties) is to bet correct scores:

Olympique Marseille v Benfica
FT score 1-1 7.00 - 0.17 to win 1 unit

VfL Wolfsburg v Rubin Kazan
FT Score 1-1 8.8 - 0.13 to win 1 win

Werder Bremen v Valencia
FT score 1-1 7.50 - 0.16 to win 1 unit

Liverpool v Lille OSC
FT score 1-0 Liverpool 7.50 - 0.16 to win 1 unit

Sporting CP v Atlético Madrid
FT Score 0-0 10.00 - 0.12 to win 1 unit

probably wise to skip wolfsburgh and the 0-0 scoreline but i'd hate to not play them and they hit. Hard to see the 3-1 scoreline being repeated to I did skip those:
------------------------------------------------
Overall since March 1st
13-17-1 -2.75 units

March week III
1-1-0 +0.55 units.

 

[DialSquares]

Saturday March 20th

English Premier League
Stoke City v Tottenham Hotspur
over 2.25 goals 1.92 - 1.08 to win 1 unit

Wigan v Burnley
Wigan 1.9 - 1.1 to win 1 unit

Sunderland v Birmingham City
Sunderland 0, -0.5 - 1.1 to win 1 unit.

English Championship
Nottm Forest v Peterborough
nottingham ah-1 1.85 1.18 to win 1 unit

as much as betting against forest on the road is profitable, it is still a good thing to take them at home. (and they are playing p'boro). I believe a 10 game home winning streak, betting swansea, m'boro, sheff utd, etc.. etc..... P'boro did win their last road game (watford) but before that 7 straight losses. This is one of those bets you wonder how it lost but i think push is about the worst result.

Scotland Premier League
Aberdeen v Dundee Utd
Dundee United AH0 1.90 - 1.10 to win 1 unit

sorry for the lack of write ups...and good luck this weekend.

 

[DialSquares]

one more late Saturday game....

Mexico Clausura
Atlas v Tecos
Atlas 2.01 - 0.99 to win 1 unit.

home record 3-1 outscoring opponents 12-2 (7-1 one game though) but 3-0 vs Monterrey and 1-0 america. Tecos winless in 5 road games (0-2-3). 0-0 scoreline last year but atlas had won 3 straight H2h prior to that. Tougher than the stats make it sound but good odds and nice chance.

 

[DialSquares]

i usually not one to bet for Milan but i do like them today:

Italy Serie A
AC Milan v Napoli
Milan -0.75 1.80 - 1.25 to win 1 unit

With inter's draw, milan can claim top spot and napoli struggling esp on the road losing to bologna, udinese and drawing to seina.

anyone remember a draw paying so little in the Chievo v Catania game....if i am not mistaken history shows this doesn't hit but being italy wonder if the fix is in????? Weird line 1.8 for a draw.

more to come but the kickoff is soon

 

[chriscol]

i usually not one to bet for Milan but i do like them today:

Italy Serie A
AC Milan v Napoli
Milan -0.75 1.80 - 1.2
With inter's draw, milan can claim top spot and napoli struggling esp on the road losing to bologna, udinese and drawing to seina.

anyone remember a draw paying so little in the Chievo v Catania game....if i am not mistaken history shows this doesn't hit but being italy wonder if the fix is in????? Weird line 1.8 for a draw.

more to come but the kickoff is soon

this draw line is very,very weird...i already read on the net tthat the game is under investigation...not unusual to see these draw odds in italy on the last 2 match-days of season, but this early??? not sure how to make money out of that

 

[chriscol]

this draw line is very,very weird...i already read on the net tthat the game is under investigation...not unusual to see these draw odds in italy on the last 2 match-days of season, but this early??? not sure how to make money out of that

amazing stuff here. after 10 minutes (score still 0-0) in live betting you get 1.16 for home win, 5.0 for draw and 126 for away win ??????????

never seen something like that

 

[DialSquares]

bet365 always has every Serie A game live-in play but not this one...

1.63 for a draw at betfair...like you said no reason to play out a draw with so many games left. If the fix is in they aren't even trying to hide it anymore...hahaha...

 

[chriscol]

bet365 always has every Serie A game live-in play but not this one...

1.63 for a draw at betfair...like you said no reason to play out a draw with so many games left. If the fix is in they aren't even trying to hide it anymore...hahaha...

the line i quotes above after 10 minutes were from bet365..after 15 minutes they took the game off..i watch it on live stream and its not like they would not run or something...at start the correct score bets at bet365 were 3.0 for a 1-1 ...interesting to look for circumstances after the match

 

[DialSquares]

1-1 in the Chievo match....a lot of people that believe in match fixing made a ton of money...esp at the 1-1 scoreline. Whether it actually was fixed hopefully will come out in the next few days but bookies certainly play into the fix conspiracy.

unfortunately for me 1-1 was also the milan score.