Dial Squares March Soccer Picks

[DialSquares]

Going to try and contribute more than just links here again:


<HR style="COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Coca-Cola League One
Southampton v Huddersfield Town
Over 2.5 1.89
I am assuming the 1-1 scoreline doesn't hit with this bet but both to score is a little short to bet for me. Huddersfield only 3 draws on the road and Southampton with 4 draws at home, so both clubs not huge draw teams. Although both clubs have 3 draws in their last 6 games, all 3 Hudders. draws were at home and 3 Southampton were away draws. Southampton have scored 11 goals in their last 6 matches, hudders 10 (huddersfield 5 straight games scoring 2 goals). Scoring 2 road goals vs Leeds is a feat in itself even with leeds poorish form. Huddersfield will be without defender Lee Peltier who played 33 games this year for them. That has to be a big blow and should help southampton scoring. Southampton average more than 2 goals a game at home and Huddersfield does conceed and score a lot on the road. Although Southampton sit 17 points back of Huddersfield they did, as you probably know, get a 10 point deduction. Huddersfield will want to maintain they good run towards promotion but i do think Southampton have a goal or two in them. Classic game where someone wins 2-1 or maybe 2-2 but no clue who will win.

 

[DialSquares]

Wednesday 3rd
Argentina Clausura
Estudiantes LP v Argentinos Jrs
Estudiantes LP AH-1 1.98

not much time and a little early to be betting this league but hard to ignore the start of Estudiantes esp. at home. Estudiantes 3-0-0 outscoring opponents 7-0 beating Huracan, San Lorenzo and Arsenal. Slow start for Argentinos only beating a struggling Lanus team and did lose to Banfield 3-0. 4 straight home wins for Estudiantes H2H at home vs Argnetinos with 2 being by more than a goal.

Like i said very early to be messing with this leauge but i do think at least a push chance today.

1-0

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[DialSquares]

i failed to mention i bet x amount to win 1 unit ... so 1-1 -0.02 units so far.

no time for reasoning but i do like the early FA Cup game:

Portsmouth v Birmingham City
Under 2 goals 2.16 0.86 to win 1.00

1-1 seems like a likely scoreline but one team can win 1-0 for sure. Even 0-0.

 

[DialSquares]

Germany Bundesliga I
Werder Bremen v VfB Stuttgart
Over 3 goals 1.97
you generally don't need a reason to bet Bremen overs but this game does have the potential of 4-5 goals. H2H in Bremen 12 out of the last 14 games have been over (at least the over 2.5 mark). 4 of the last 5 H2H over. Bremen 62% overs and 7 out of 11 at home. Stuttgart just 5 overs in 11 league matches, but the key lies with bremen. Past 6 games bremen 16Gf:12Ga, Stuttgart 15Gf:7Ga.

Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Schalke 04
over 2 goals 1.74
Altintop to score anytime 3.50 <--ultra super small

i was all set to take both teams to score but then noticed the over 2 goal mark at 1.8. Seems like a good value to me. Only Stuttgart have managed to keep a road clean sheet vs Frankfurt this year. At the over 1.5 mark, Frankfurt are 11 overs and 1 under; Schalke just 7 overs and 4 unders which is quite low for bundesliga. Schalke do tend to have 0-0 0-1 1-0 road games so this is definitely not a slam dunk pick but I do think Frankfurt can score but not convince they will win. Probably 1-1 i'd all regret the better odds of Both teams to score but i don't mind pushing more than most people. Altintop to score anytime is a regular bet i make with players playing against old clubs...very small bets and i keep separate records of those.

more to follow i imagine.

 

[chriscol]

Germany Bundesliga I
Werder Bremen v VfB Stuttgart
Over 3 goals 1.97
you generally don't need a reason to bet Bremen overs but this game does have the potential of 4-5 goals. H2H in Bremen 12 out of the last 14 games have been over (at least the over 2.5 mark). 4 of the last 5 H2H over. Bremen 62% overs and 7 out of 11 at home. Stuttgart just 5 overs in 11 league matches, but the key lies with bremen. Past 6 games bremen 16Gf:12Ga, Stuttgart 15Gf:7Ga.

Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Schalke 04
over 2 goals 1.74
Altintop to score anytime 3.50 <--ultra super small

i was all set to take both teams to score but then noticed the over 2 goal mark at 1.8. Seems like a good value to me. Only Stuttgart have managed to keep a road clean sheet vs Frankfurt this year. At the over 1.5 mark, Frankfurt are 11 overs and 1 under; Schalke just 7 overs and 4 unders which is quite low for bundesliga. Schalke do tend to have 0-0 0-1 1-0 road games so this is definitely not a slam dunk pick but I do think Frankfurt can score but not convince they will win. Probably 1-1 i'd all regret the better odds of Both teams to score but i don't mind pushing more than most people. Altintop to score anytime is a regular bet i make with players playing against old clubs...very small bets and i keep separate records of those.

more to follow i imagine.

was also thinking over here...Bordon out will lead to a more offensive approach by Schalke

 

[WayneBetzky]

what a sorry ass bunch this Birmingham getting shutout 2-0.I'll take the push:smoking:

 

[DialSquares]

when you see 0-0 around the 65th minute you start to think it might win but 5 mins later you are just praying for a push. That's the risk on the under 2 goals - one goal generally leads to more. But Pompey is the most puzzling team of the year...I am sure Chelsea or Villa was make sure they don't win the cup but what a ride for the fans. I guess the players know it's their only hope for anything so focus is all on the cup. I don't mind pushing but this one stung a little.


heavy lean towards taking fulham in either the draw no bet or straight win. I do want to find out for certain on Murphy and Dafoe to see if they are in or out. Not sure yet.

 

[WayneBetzky]

Actually Birmingham had a perfectly good goal called back with 12 minutes remaining so the push looks even better now

 

[DialSquares]

i didn't see it but glad to hear that. If Schalke over 2 goals push than i will have to re-think if i don't mind pushing...haha..

 

[WayneBetzky]

nice call on the Schalke over@).I went and bit on the Bremen over like so many others so will probably be giving back my Schalke winningshno:

 

[DialSquares]

15 mins to get a winner in bremen now...books are still saying we might get the 4th...but yes it was looking like 2 goals and sucked in.

 

[DialSquares]

bs penalty kick call but i'm not a fan of stuttgart so it's all good..haha...beauty goal by walcott in the arsenal match.

a couple of draws look promising enough in italy today.

Fiorentina v Juventus
draw 3.30
H2H in florence 5 draws in last 6 matches. Both clubs midweek action in europe may settle for a draw. Fiorentina will want to get back into form prior to Munich. Draws are hard to predict but wager is always small and 1 out of 2 in italy looks good.

Roma v AC Milan
draw 3.3
2 out of 3 in rome have ended in draws. I think Roma might win it in the end and maybe if Juve draw, skip this one. Roma yet to draw at home which in itself seems a bit odd. Overdue, 3 points difference in the standings and both playing midweek and recent history of draws....good enough for me even if it is not great reasons for a draw.

i do plan on betting the FA Cup but still waiting on team news.

 

[DialSquares]

2 early German II games for me tomorrow.

1860 Munich v St Pauli
Over 2.5 goals 2.22

Augsburg v Paderborn
Under 2.5 goals 2.12

sorry no time for write up

Record 4-2..up over 2 units but wrong computer to know exactly. Sorry about that.

 

[DialSquares]

kickoff's in 15 mins so sorry again for no write up...

FA Cup
Reading v Aston Villa
Both teams to score? YES 1.90 - 1.1 units to win 1

i was leaning over 2.25 but i am worried about the 1-1 FT Score. This pays nearly the same....hopefully an early on for reading to make me a bit more confident.


http://www.therxforum.com/football/...nd-proper/reading-v-aston-villa/match-result/

 

[DialSquares]

EPL
Everton v Hull
Everton AH-1 1.76 1.32 to win 1 unit
any team that beats Citeh, Man U, Chelsea and Sporting Lisbon deserve a bet from me over hull. Even without that, Everton have won 5 straight home games. The only issue with the game is Everton really out of any top 5 spots and hull fighting for survival. It is a little early imo to be thinking that way but definitely can play a factor. Hull's away record is terrible though 0 wins and 4 draws in 15 games; recently losing to West Ham and Blackburn on the road. Everton won last years fixture 2-0 and looks about right again this year. Return of Cahill would be a major boost and no doubt Bullard returning to action would be a bigtime boost for hull. I just won't be around for lineups. All that being said I don't trust everton to win by more than 1 goal enough to bet the AH-1.5.

 

[WayneBetzky]

I see Villa woke up in the 2nd half to win 2-4<<

 

[DialSquares]

Monday March 8th
France Ligue 2
Laval v Metz
draw 3.1 - 0.48 to win 1 unit

Usually when a draw looks as good as this one does it doesn't hit. But i would always regret not betting it. Stade Laval with 7 draws in 12 home games and 4 draws in their last 6 matches. 5 of the last 6 home matches have ended in draws for Laval only an 83rd minute winner not ending in a draw. Metz 5 draws in 13 road matches and could move 4 points clear in the promotional zone. Obviously metz would love to win but i don't think they'll risk the draw if it is tied late and clearly Laval has no problem with the draws. H2H is a bit useless as a 2002 1-1 draw means little but at least we can say draw history....maybe not. Draws are tough but monday is a known draw day (known to be a draw day for me) and this is a good chance. As low as 2.85 at places which is pretty low for a draw.

Germany Bundesliga II
Arminia Bielefeld v Karlsruhe
Arminia Bielefeld 1.75 - 1.33 to win 1 unit

Karlsruhe is in poor form and have lost 5 of 6 since coming off winterbreak including all 3 road games: Frankfurt, St. Pauli and Aachen. The top clubs all recently beat them and if Bielefeld want any hope of promotion they will need to win today. Very decent home record 7-1-3 and have won 4 out of 6 games. A win would see Bielefeld tied for 3rd with St Pauli and 4 points back of automatic promotion. Good home team vs a struggling side i think worth the risk.

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Overall Since March 1st:
7-3-1 +4.65 units

March Week II
0-0-0 +0 units

 

[DialSquares]

i had all but given up on the french draw and very surprised when i saw it judged as a winner. Personally I don't think bielefeld deserved to win but some nice chances to tie.

Argentia Primera Division
Arsenal de Sarandi v Colon de Santa Fe
over 2 goals 1.67 - 1.49 to win 1 unit

sometimes i think i am smarter than the books and we might find out tonight. Arsenal de Sarandi are 7-0 in over 1.5s this season; Colon 6 overs and 1 under 1.5. (1-0 win over river plate being the only under). Even at the over 2.5 we see Arsenal 5-2 overs (2-1 at home) and Colon 3 overs in 4 games. h2h at Estadio Julio H. Grondona, 4 straight games with at least 2 goals. I don't think we will see 4-5 goals, but i do think we should see at least a push with a good shot at 3 goals.

But the all that saying odds for over 2.5 are way above even so the books have to be way off on this one to hit....and they are usually not that far off. (except liverpool paid -175..haha)

 

[DialSquares]

4th minute of stoppage goals seem to always be huge ... nice to be on the right side of one of those.

Apologies for no write up - stuff to get prior to the huge Gunners game

Barclays Premier League
Sunderland v Bolton
Bolton AH0 2.64 - 0.61 to win 1 unit

Coca-Cola League Championship
Peterborough v Sheff Utd
over 2.25 goals 1.9 - 1.11 to win 1 unit

UEFA Champions League
Fiorentina v FC Bayern München:
Both Teams To Score: 1.72 - 1.37 to win 1 unit
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Overall since March 1st
9-4-1 +5.32 units

March week II
2-1-0 +0.67 units.

 

[DialSquares]

praying for a second half goal didn't work in the P'boro game but i guess all my praying abilities were on Gunner goals yesterday..haha...1-2 day but Arsenal advances...feels like a winning day.

There is a couple earlies i like today....
Switzerland Axpo Super League
AC Bellinzona v FC St. Gallen
over 3 goals 2.14 - 0.88 to win 1 unit
both clubs and 7-3 on overs home/away. Last years H2H game ended 5-0 for the away side. The odds for both teams to score is 1.5, and i think that is very possible. With a 65% over league, an over is never a bad thing. But bellinzona conceeding like mad but able to score, I think this has a great shot at the 3 goal mark. Perhaps a late goal for a winner.

France Le Championnat
Girondins de Bordeaux v AJ Auxerre
Girondins de Bordeaux -1 2.09 - 0.92 to win 1 unit
with bordeaux in tough on the weekend vs Monaco and midweek CL game next week, full focus really should be on this game. This could be a rebound game coming off that late equalizer from Montpellier on the weekend. 9-3-1 at home only giving up 6 goals vs a club that have only scored 8. Auxerre have beaten both Lille and Marseille on the road so this will definitely be a tough one..esp AH-1. H2H Bordeaux 10-4-2 vs Auxerre at home and have won 3 out of the last 4. (including the last 2 by more than a goal). Odds are set perfectly imo and like the bet above perhaps a push but i do think bordeaux wins and 1.6 is just a little too much juice for me (the AH-0.75 probably the wiser bet)

------------------------------------------------
Overall since March 1st
10-6-1 +4.60 units

March week II
3-3-0 -0.05 units.