It's not the TO's that i'm worried about, it's the pass interference calls that will be made deep into the opposing teams field of play. I believe that will set up the points that will eventually determine the cover. These guys are going to fling it down the field and go for the big play more often then you think. There will be plenty of ball control but passing will end up being the mode of travel. Close coverage (too close) and trying to save your ass (holding on to the other player) is going to be a big deciding factor in SUPERBOWL 2005. Then there is always that penalty that falls into the category of, "if it wasn't for that penalty". There's one thing that i didn't like about the NE/Pitt game and that's how NE was up and had control but slowly relinquished their lead because of a short lapse (several occasions) on defense. I really thought that Pitt had a chance to cover. Going for 3 instead of 7, 4th and goal, could have been an important turning point as far as momentum for Pitt. If i do the spread on this game, which is still @ 7.0, i'm going to have to buy a .5pt, one way or the other. I enjoy totals (i'm a UNDER person) but i haven't made a decision. I give either team an equal chance to win or cover. Great job on the write-ups. Thank you and Good Luck!!!!! 
al watts
al wattsHello trench1978...
Thanks for your kind words, I think you are correct in that the posted point spread of 7 is an inflated line, my ratings have the line at 4 thus the value with the Eagles.
I also think you are correct with regard to the inflated line being a product of public perception with regard to the hype surrounding the patriots wins over the Colts and Steelers, however, most forget that the Colts had one of the worst defenses in the NFL and Steelers had a rookie QB that showed his true stripes by throwing three INT's.
The patriots were fortunate to have played the Colts who are a dome team outdoors and on grass with the aid of bad weather conditions, in terms of defense the Colts had the NFL's 28th ranked defense, to me the patriots win over the Colts was really not surprising at all.
The patriots win over Pittsburgh was more impressive because defensively speaking Pittsburgh ranked #1 in the NFL, however, the Steeler's advantage on defense was offset by FOUR offensive turnovers which led to the patriots having a T/O ratio of +4 in that game.
In this game against the Eagles the patriots will not be facing a bottom of the barrel defense nor will they be facing a rookie QB, most have not mentioned special teams which may prove to be the difference in this game, in that regard I rate the FG kickers even but give the edge in returns and coverage to Philly.
take care and good luck!
Deb
If i do the spread on this game, which is still @ 7.0, i'm going to have to buy a .5pt, one way or the other. I enjoy totals (i'm a UNDER person) but i haven't made a decision. I give either team an equal chance to win or cover. Great job on the write-ups. Thank you and Good Luck!!!!!
Hello alwatts..
I really like the UNDER in this game as well, I grabbed the UNDER when it went to 48 but I wouldn't be surprised to see it rise to 48.5 or possibly 49 by game time, the OVER has cashed the ticket 14 times in the past 20 years, however, I believe this to be an aberation due to the fact that overall there have been 20 OVER's to 17 UNDER's with one tie in Super Bowl history, the oddsmakers have indeed recognized this trend and thus have probably over compensated with the rather high O/U line on this years Super Bowl.
When taking a look at how the total has landed in different ranges we see that there have been 5 OVER's and 4 UNDER's in SB history when the posted O/U line is between 42 and 48, however, when the posted O/U number is 49+ we see there have been 6 OVER's and 3 UNDER's.
Looking a little deeper, we know that this years SB will be played in Jacksonville which has a grass field, in SB history games played on grass fields have yielded 15 OVER's and 7 UNDER's.
Just some interesting fodder to consider, personally I think the O/U number is too high on this contest because each team is led by a veteran QB that rarely makes the costly mistake, each team's HC tends to take a conservative approach in their game planning and each team fields a good defense.
take care and good luck!
Deb<!-- / message -->
Hey Deb,
I wish I could change your mind about betting the under. N.E and Phil like to throw the ball down field. This sets up quick scores either by good catches or the ref throwing the yellow flag. When you throw the ball down field with sucess it also sets up long runs by the running backs. N.E scored 41 against a very good defense and gave up 27 to a rookie Q.B. I would think McNabb and the Phlly offense should be able to score 27 or better.
I wish I could change your mind about betting the under. N.E and Phil like to throw the ball down field. This sets up quick scores either by good catches or the ref throwing the yellow flag. When you throw the ball down field with sucess it also sets up long runs by the running backs. N.E scored 41 against a very good defense and gave up 27 to a rookie Q.B. I would think McNabb and the Phlly offense should be able to score 27 or better.
Hey Guys..
To Re-Cap I am on the Eagles +7 for 3 units and on the UNDER 48 for another 3 units, I also made seven Prop Plays on this years Super Bowl, for those that have never wagered on Prop Plays I have found the best thing to do is to figure out how you think the game will play out and make your Prop wagers accordingly...I am on the following Prop Plays:
PHILLY +4.5 ( +128 )........1/2 unit
MVP...Donovan McNabb ( +325 )....1/2 unit
Total points by Philly OVER 20.5 ( -105 ).....1 unit
Will there be a Def TD or KO/punt return for a TD..YES ( +150 )....1 unit
PHILLY defense scores a TD ( +425 ).....1/2 unit
Eagle + patriot total score ODD ( -135 ).....1 unit
Both teams to make a FG over 32.5 yds ( -125 )...1 unit
take care and good luck!
Deb
To Re-Cap I am on the Eagles +7 for 3 units and on the UNDER 48 for another 3 units, I also made seven Prop Plays on this years Super Bowl, for those that have never wagered on Prop Plays I have found the best thing to do is to figure out how you think the game will play out and make your Prop wagers accordingly...I am on the following Prop Plays:
PHILLY +4.5 ( +128 )........1/2 unit
MVP...Donovan McNabb ( +325 )....1/2 unit
Total points by Philly OVER 20.5 ( -105 ).....1 unit
Will there be a Def TD or KO/punt return for a TD..YES ( +150 )....1 unit
PHILLY defense scores a TD ( +425 ).....1/2 unit
Eagle + patriot total score ODD ( -135 ).....1 unit
Both teams to make a FG over 32.5 yds ( -125 )...1 unit
take care and good luck!
Deb
Hello dubpoet..
Thanks for the reply, I must of missed that one, another one that I thought about but in the end did not play is "Will there be overtime"?...a YES play is listed at +700...I decided not to play it because I think the payout should be higher due to the fact that there has never been a game in Super Bowl history that has gone into OT.
take care and good luck!
Deb
Deb12:
For the last week I have been reading your thread and both the responses to it as well as your responses, and I simply want to congratulate you on a job well done. Continued best of luck in the future.
Hello oldmanTED...
Thank you very much for your kind words, I saw a post somewhere that you were not feeling well so I hope this message finds you feeling better, I was hoping to read your thoughts on the Super Bowl as I was very impressed with your College National Championship write-up.
Thanks again, take care and good luck!
Deb
Hello everyone..
To Re-Cap:
I was fortunate enough to collect on BOTH the side and total with Philly +7 and OVER 48 for three units each and broke even with my prop plays, overall in the NFL playoffs this year and including the Super Bowl I finished up with a record of 7-3 ATS.
I would also like to extend a big Congrats to patriot fans for winning your third Super Bowl over a four year span, no matter how you slice it that is really amazing in this day and age of salary cap restrictions and free agency.
See you next year...take care and good luck!
Deb
To Re-Cap:
I was fortunate enough to collect on BOTH the side and total with Philly +7 and OVER 48 for three units each and broke even with my prop plays, overall in the NFL playoffs this year and including the Super Bowl I finished up with a record of 7-3 ATS.
I would also like to extend a big Congrats to patriot fans for winning your third Super Bowl over a four year span, no matter how you slice it that is really amazing in this day and age of salary cap restrictions and free agency.
See you next year...take care and good luck!
Deb
Great job, Deb, although you meant UNDER 48. (We all knew what you meant and saw it in your previous posts.) I enjoyed your analyses and write-ups this season, although I must confess I rarely had the patience to read all the way through the lengthy ones! I look forward to your insight next season. Don't spend all your $$$ in one place! 
arty:
arty:OK I hate to break up the Deb lovefest but explain to me what Belichick did in this game to disprove the notion that he is a genius?
Also, do you really want to back Brady in the Brady v Belichick debate we had a few replies earlier?
Value was with the under and the dog, just as it is in most Superbowls. We got lucky that the Eagles punched it in late to cover. The total was solid pretty much from the start. In the long run betting for value always pays off. Instead of patting ourselves on the back we should be taking a closer look at our weaknesses so we can better spot "true" value in the future.
This was solely a value play based on the fact that it is the most public game of the year of the most public bet sport. Nothing else.
Also, do you really want to back Brady in the Brady v Belichick debate we had a few replies earlier?
Value was with the under and the dog, just as it is in most Superbowls. We got lucky that the Eagles punched it in late to cover. The total was solid pretty much from the start. In the long run betting for value always pays off. Instead of patting ourselves on the back we should be taking a closer look at our weaknesses so we can better spot "true" value in the future.
This was solely a value play based on the fact that it is the most public game of the year of the most public bet sport. Nothing else.
