Here’s a couple more points for ya. If I'm Philly's D, I don't let any receiver get behind safeties (the same technique Belichick employs), and also line the D-line to try and corral Dillon. This leaves short to medium range passes open to TEs and RBs and short routes for receivers. This way, no big passing play, and Dillon earns it. It forces Pats to be patient, and can cause fumbles (Dillon/Faulk) and make the Pats earn their way to points. If I'm Philly's O, hope to God that Donovan can scramble and make dump-off/medium throws consistently all day. Because I don't see any other way they can move the ball. I'd imagine that Bruschi spies Westbrook, with on the line bumps from Vrabel and McGinest.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice
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Hello Grogan..
There are many many factors to consider when attacking the point spread on any given game, these factors include but are not limited to: Past head-to-head meetings, a comparison of same season opponents, season long statistics, a "Rolling average" of the last three or four game statistics, trend analysis, situational analysis, and of course matchup analysis.
When it comes to analyzing the Super Bowl I feel that a heavier emphasis has to be placed on attacking the line itself with regard to past Super Bowl results and recent trends in Super Bowl point spread results, the reason for this is because the Super Bowl is the most publicly analyzed game in the world...meaning that the public knows as much about each team as you do.
Thus the reason for the perpective and point of view that I used took in posting my original Super Bowl analysis, if you wanted my thoughts on individual matchups of offense versus defense...all you had to do was ask.
In that regard, I think this contest will be lower scoring than most expect and will probably come down to which defense and in particular which defensive secondary plays the best, when looking at the Eagles defense most public bettors simply do not realize the impact that Eagle LB Jeremiah Trotter has made.
Trotter became a starter at midseason and has proven HC Andy Reid to be correct in bringing him back to Philly, with Trotter in the line-up the Eagle defense has cut its rushing yards allowed from 130.6 yards per game to 83.5 per game in the six games after Trotter became a starter (before Reid rested most of the regulars in the final two contests).
Stopping the run is key for Philly, the Eagles do in fact have the type of personel to use a 5-3-3 or a 4-4-3 type of defensive alignment designed to stop and contain patriot RB Corey Dillon and force patriot QB Tom Brady to take to the air, this benefits the Eagles because they have probably the best defensive secondary in the NFL with three Pro Bowlers.
Another key matchup to watch in my opinion pits patriot offensive RT Brandon Gorin against Philly's bull rush, Gorin has good size but he is somewhat limited with regard to his ability to pick up and contain blitzing linebackers. thus the reason that Gorin opened the season as a backup right tackle for the patriots.
An injury to starting RT Tom Ashworth forced the patriots to insert Gorin into the lineup, don't get me wrong, Gorin has played well and has become a good quality player, however, he will be matched up against Jevon Kearse who is one of best pass rushers in the game.
How well Gorin handles Kearse will likely decide just how much the Eagles blitz. If Gorin can handle Kearse then the Eagles will be forced to attack more with the blitz, however, if Gorin can not contain Kearse then Philly should be able to get to patriot QB Tom Brady without blitzing.
With regard to how Philly's offense will matchup versus the patriot defense, the real key may come down to how well the Eagles control patriot NT Vince Wilfork who at 344 pounds is a mountain of a man cut in the same mold as Ted Washingon.
Wilfork is a huge obstacle in the middle and has the ability to fight thru double teams with his sheer power, however, Wilfork is a 1st year player and more of a "space taker upper" than anything else, I would expect to see the Eagles use their own mountain men in RT Jon Runyan who checks in at 6'7" and 330 pounds and LT Thomas who checks in at 6'7" and 350 pounds to stop the patriot rush from coming up the middle and give QB McNabb time in the pocket.
The real key for the patriots defense is the health of Richard Seymour who is a three time Pro Bowler and a force to be reckoned with when at full strength, Seymour is hard to handle and is a great disrupting force to opposing QB's as evidenced with his 22 sacks over the past four years.
I would look for both offenses to employ a very similar game plan with regard to utilizing a spread offense to better run the ball and expect to see both team use a variety of screens to slow down and/or trap the pass rush of the opposing defense, each team will most likely take their shots downfield as well.
Overall I expect to see both defenses play well and believe we are in store for a rather low scoring game, the reason being is that each team has superior coaching staffs and each team has an experienced quality QB under center that has shown the ability to limit mistakes, in my opinion the team that comes up with a key turnover will win this game.
take care and good luck!
Deb
