Coronavirus Stock Market buy off.

[PatsFan1283]

This is the Fed nightmare scenario. Monetary policy would have zero effect on the economy when the same government encourages everyone to limit public activities. We need to keep an eye on California, they could be the first state to close public schools in coming weeks. It's a big disruption when that happens.

They still don't know everything about this virus - when they do, we can be hopeful that someone will come up with the vaccine/drug to stop this disease.

Nice to see the maven of money in the house.

I think the fed just wants to save asset prices because that is all they've wanted to do for the last 30 years. They know any deflation in that area is going to cause a wide array of defaults throughout the economy.

Yeah cutting is useless on the demand side but they just want to do what they can to avoid deflationary death spiral at all costs.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Not sure where you heard its 40X more likely to kill you than the flu ?

Early data suggests the rate is 1% vs 0.025%.

I suppose as treatment/detection gets better that 1% will go down quite a bit but that's what it is.

 

[festeringZit]

Why do people keep saying it is "just like the flu"

It is 40x more likely to kill you than the flu and 3x more contagious and much harder detect at early stages.

Yeah, it'll subside eventually and a vaccine will neuter it but it isn't "just like the flu" anymore than Matt Schaub is just like Tom Brady.

Is it likely to kill any of us? No, but it is a legitimate global event with major ramifications and significantly more serious than 99.9% of shit you see in the mainstream media.

There is no way at this point that we know these figures.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

 

[REDEYE]

Early data suggests the rate is 1% vs 0.025%.

I suppose as treatment/detection gets better that 1% will go down quite a bit but that's what it is.

Way to early to have that kind of number imbalance...

 

[snoop]

1 COVID-19 death confirmed in WA

 

[PatsFan1283]

There is no way at this point that we know these figures.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

We do know it is more contagious and much harder to detect at early stages.

And it might not be 40x but it likely isn't anywhere close to 1:1 ratio in regards to death rate vs the flu either.

 

[snoop]

Nice to see the maven of money in the house.

I think the fed just wants to save asset prices because that is all they've wanted to do for the last 30 years. They know any deflation in that area is going to cause a wide array of defaults throughout the economy.

Yeah cutting is useless on the demand side but they just want to do what they can to avoid deflationary death spiral at all costs.

Powell was trying to be pro-active but this is not a liquidity issue by any mean. They could go for .25 cut just to calm the market. Trump is about to hold a news conference. They dropped the ball in the last press. His effort to control the narrative fell flat. The DOW plunged add'l 1400 pts.

I'm sampling the event of public school closing in Cali, it would effect 25K jobs (low end) - 48K jobs (high end). Jobs being effect if school close nationwide would be significant. Trump should work on an extend unemployment benefit/universal income package when that happens.

 

[Ricboff]

yeah , very difficult to provide a death rate, but estimates arent a bad thing, even this early in the game.

comparison , death rate;

seasonal flu - 0.1%
coronavirus- 2% (depends your source)
sars - 9.6% (nasty)
MERs- 34% (get out of Dodge)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

of the 2% it appears from early data, most are the elderly ,or the medically compromised

'Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.'

 

[PatsFan1283]

Powell was trying to be pro-active but this is not a liquidity issue by any mean. They could go for .25 cut just to calm the market. Trump is about to hold a news conference. They dropped the ball in the last press. His effort to control the narrative fell flat. The DOW plunged add'l 1400 pts.

I'm sampling the event of public school closing in Cali, it would effect 25K jobs (low end) - 48K jobs (high end). Jobs being effect if school close nationwide would be significant. Trump should work on an extend unemployment benefit/universal income package when that happens.

Yeah, I was gonna mention in my last post that a stimulus is likely if this persists.

I just think all options are on the table. Maybe a early '08 style stimulus package towards low/middle income in the 300b range ('08 was 150) since that can get into the economy quicker than monetary policy.

Even if SHTF that is one reason I wouldn't be that worried about equities is because they will prop at all costs.

 

[snoop]

People is packed at Sam's Club/Costco - the panic is spreading fast.

 

[cloverleaf]

Deaths in United States

Coronavirus: 1
Pedestrian: 6,590 (2019)

Walking on American street is getting ever dangerous. In the past
10 years, the number of pedestrian deaths has increased by more
than 50 percent.

Walking on American streets should be banned immediately before
it spreads to other countries.

 

[REDEYE]

Regular flu Im sure took out dozens today

 

[PatsFan1283]

People is packed at Sam's Club/Costco - the panic is spreading fast.

I think we’ll go to NIRP eventually but you think it is in the range of outcomes for this episode?

 

[thekeyman]

Before i make my decision to cancel my Vegas march madness trip i am going to call my cardiologist and see what he thinks i should do.If there is anyone who will steer me right it is him for sure

 

[Salsantorre]

obviously, the media and the democrats have artificially created this issue to
scare the public, hurt the economy, and take down trump. it's amazing how
efficiently and well organized these two groups are to do this so quickly and
seamlessly. I think Donald trump jr is correct. the democrats want this virus
to kill millions to hurt trump.

Lol.....

 

[Salsantorre]

100% correct!! Well said! And YES,the Democrats DO want people to die so they can win the White House

Dumb, just dumb

 

[snoop]

I think we’ll go to NIRP eventually but you think it is in the range of outcomes for this episode?

We'll get there, don't see how the Fed can reverse the downtrend. They're flooding the financial system w/ liquidity yet it is still in a deflation mode. If the outbreak last through the summer, China will have a recession later this year, then the US will follow. We likely see more economy stimulus from China/US to reboot the economy. Stock market tend to bottom out before the recovery.

Next week is a big week, not only we're getting bombarding with endless Covid-19 negative headlines, but the Super Tuesday. Bernie Sanders extending lead over others will definitely cause more selling. I hope he does not win, I'm still holding a good chunk of healthcare stocks. Sanders to win Dem nomination will send my bio/healthcare stocks down the toilet.

 

[mickj]

Sanders to win Dem nomination will send my bio/healthcare stocks down the toilet. Would that include Abbvie?

 

[snoop]

Sanders is a real threat to pharmaceutical companies, Sanders President is a total nightmare. I don't believe he could get anything done anyway. Any Sanders overhaul US healthcare proposal is a dead in the water. Short term crash in biotech/pharma stocks would present a golden opp for value investors. US healthcare sector is still one of the best places for your $ in the long run.

 

[Ricboff]

Tesla - which had risen fron $230 last July to just over $900 four weeks ago - has dropped to $680 and is for a short while much more accessible.

Past 60 days has seen them increase their share of automaker market capital to number 2 in the world, trailing only Toyota by a modest margin

Best to everyone however you elect to proceed in coming months

well, she came back to test her breakout area, filled the gap ended with a green candle last friday and today........


TSLA

6 month daily

last friday's low was a critical hold, again where it broke out adn it did hold......can she reclaim her 8 ema tomorrow?....