it's only +EV in your own opinion/method. Soccer and boxing are IMO the two most corrupt sports out there. Laying huge vig is always a risk in any sport, let alone these. I am not saying it won't work if you pick and choose your spots. From the flip side, how would you feel if you were flat betting 1 unit on every dog ML in this WC? You would be crushing with minimal risk versus losing 3-4 units on an upset or a draw (two ways to lose, which isn't possible in almost any other sport.) I know a ton of successful gamblers here and off-shore... some high-volume, some super selective, others arbitrage types. I have never met any professionals who make a profitable living off 5-7 figure bet sports wagering do what you are suggesting. Best of luck moving forward. Hope we all cash.
it's only +EV in your own opinion/method. Soccer and boxing are IMO the two most corrupt sports out there. Laying huge vig is always a risk in any sport, let alone these. I am not saying it won't work if you pick and choose your spots. From the flip side, how would you feel if you were flat betting 1 unit on every dog ML in this WC? You would be crushing with minimal risk versus losing 3-4 units on an upset or a draw (two ways to lose, which isn't possible in almost any other sport.) I know a ton of successful gamblers here and off-shore... some high-volume, some super selective, others arbitrage types. I have never met any professionals who make a profitable living off 5-7 figure bet sports wagering do what you are suggesting. Best of luck moving forward. Hope we all cash.
Laying the wood on Italy tomorrow after England wet the bed?? Line hasn't jumped that much and Pirlo just taking care of biz in a deep lying position should get it done. I would think 2-0 Italy is a good prop bet... As an Arsenal supporter, can't see Campbell breaking this team down in the run of play. Lucky set piece, or PK... MAYBE. Probably laying 1100 to win 500 on this one...
Sometimes it's the other way around with the -0.5 odds being slightly lower. Yesterday Italy, -0.5 was -175 all the Moneyline was -180 at a point. No real reason other than it's two lines that should theoretically be the same, but they are taking different amounts of action at different times so they just try to keep them in-line the best they can. At least that's my understanding, but I haven't but I haven't bet on soccer since the last World Cup.
For the moneyline vs the -0,5 bet, they are the same thing. The reason they'll sometimes be a couple points difference in price is some adjustment by the algorithm when money comes in on the other side of the bet. Just pick the best price when they are different, because they are the exact same bet. It's my understanding that the book makes more profit off of 3-way betting (win, lose, draw) than on spread betting and this is reflected in the small price difference (-.5 vs. ml), although at times they are the same.
