Dr. Bob
Opinion
NY Giants (-7.5) 24 CLEVELAND 17
The Browns have not come close to resembling the high-scoring team of last season, as quarterback Derek Anderson has simply not been able to connect with his receivers down the field. Anderson has thrown the ball to star WR Braylon Edwards 30 times this season for a total of just 95 yards as Edwards is up against double and triple teaming. Getting Donte Stallworth in the lineup this week will help, as he has yet to play and will cause defenses to shade a safety towards his side, but Cleveland still is probably a below average offense that won’t have too many opportunities to score against a very good Giants defense that has allowed just 4.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The Giants are clicking on offense too at 6.8 yppl, but Cleveland’s defense has been solid since allowing 7.9 yppl to the Cowboys in their opener (they’ve now allowed 5.5 yppl for the season against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). My math model favors New York by 13 ½ points, but bad teams coming off their bye week tend to be very good bets as big home underdogs. In fact, teams with losing records (after 3 games or more) coming off their bye week are an incredible 24-3 ATS as home underdogs of 6 points. The Giants have covered 10 straight on the road, but I don’t want to mess with a 24-3 ATS situation so I’ll pass.
ope:
