Cnotes Week # 11 National Football League Rated Games - Trends - News !!

[CNOTES]

Fitzpatrick to face former team when Jets visit Texans
November 21, 2015


HOUSTON (AP) The New York Jets will start Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday against the Houston Texans after he had thumb surgery last week.


In Houston the quarterback situation continues to be an issue and the Texans will start their third different player at the position on Sunday with Brian Hoyer out with a concussion.


With Hoyer out, T.J. Yates will get his first start since he was a rookie on Jan. 15, 2012, when the Texans lost 20-13 to the Ravens in the playoffs. The Texans picked up Brandon Weeden off waivers on Wednesday and he'll back up Yates on Sunday.


For Fitzpatrick, it's a chance to face a former team that traded him after last season. He started 12 games for Houston in 2014.


''The fact that they didn't necessarily want me at the end of the year plays into it a little bit for me, just from the personal standpoint,'' Fitzpatrick said.


''But it's not a big thing, other than we're out there trying to win a game, get back on track. So the personal stuff has to be set aside and I've got to try to win a football game.''


The surgery was to repair a torn ligament on the left thumb of the right-handed quarterback. He played two games with the injury before having surgery last Friday. Fitzpatrick said there are factors other than tolerating the pain that he's dealing with in the wake of the surgery.


''If it was that easy, then for sure there wouldn't an issue,'' he said. ''There's just an issue with - fresh off a surgery, just making sure everything stays clean, the incision and all that. There's a couple different factors that are playing into it.''


The Jets are coming off a loss to the Bills and Houston has won two straight, capped by Monday night's victory over previously undefeated Cincinnati.


Yates took over after Hoyer was injured in that one and accounted for the only touchdown of the night with a TD pass to DeAndre Hopkins. He expects playing this week to be a bit easier because he got almost all the snaps with the first team in practice.


''Some of those plays I ran in the game were the first time I've ever run them, period, practice or game,'' he said. ''So you feel more comfortable going in, getting more reps during the week.''


Some things to know about the Jets-Texans game.


RUNNING WOES: The Texans are averaging 87.2 yards rushing this season, which ranks 28th in the league. The challenge to improve the running game will be even more difficult when they face a defense that ranks first in the NFL against the run, allowing 88.1 yards a game. Houston has started Alfred Blue in the two games since Arian Foster was lost for the season, but has managed just 61 yards rushing combined in those games. The Texans will also use Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes to try to jumpstart the running game.


DYNAMIC DUO: Jets wide receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall have touchdown catches in the same game five times this season. Decker has a team-leading seven, while Marshall has six. Both players are in the top five among NFL wide receivers in touchdowns since 2010, with Marshall (46) in third place and Decker (45) tied with Green Bay's Jordy Nelson for fourth.


HOPKINS' HEALTH: Hopkins has missed practice this week with a knee injury, but said Thursday that he's fine and will play on Sunday. Hopkins is third in the NFL with 927 yards receiving and his seven touchdown receptions are tied for fourth in the league. ''DeAndre's played a lot of football for us, so I think he'll remember the plays and I think he'll be ready to go,'' O'Brien said.


BANGED-UP: The Jets were unsure whether they'd have defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson (hamstring) on Sunday. Coach Todd Bowles said Richardson would be a game-time decision. Antonio Cromartie (bruised thigh) missed the Jets' previous game against Buffalo after being hurt early against Jacksonville, but is expected to play Sunday. Safety Calvin Pryor is expected to play after missing three games, and backup running back Bilal Powell could return after sitting for four games - both because of high ankle sprains.


MACC'S BACK: The game marks the return to Houston for Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan, who worked in the Texans front office for 15 years before being hired by New York in January. Maccagnan, Houston's director of college scouting the past four years, worked closely with Texans GM Rick Smith during their time together and counts him as one of the biggest influences on his professional life.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Redskins (4-5) @ Panthers (9-0)-- Carolina is 7-2 vs spread this season, 3-2 at home; they allowed 20+ points in five of last seven games, ran ball for 119+ yards in last eight games. Panthers won last three series games; seven of last nine in series were decided by 4 or less points. Washington is 4-0 when it scores 23+ points, 0-5 when it doesn't; they're 1-3 as a road dog, losing away games by 11-6-14-17 points. Redskins lost last three visits here, by 3-3-13 points. Underdogs are 1-3 vs spread week after playing Saints; favorites are 1-4 week after playing Titans. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-8 vs spread, 2-5 on road; NFC South favorites are 10-7, 6-4 at home. Three of last four Redskin games, five of last seven Panther games went over total.

Raiders (4-5) @ Lions (2-7)-- Detroit split last four games since 0-5 start; they've changed lot of coaches/GM, but they're off first win at Lambeau since '91- teams are 2-5 SU week after playing Packers. Since 2007, Raiders are 6-18 vs spread when favored, 0-2 this year; Oakland is 4-1 when scoring 27+ points, 0-4 when they score less- this is Raiders' first tilt this year on artificial turf- they're 9-3 vs spread on carpet last 5+ years. Four of Detroit's last five foes scored 28+ points. Lions won last three series games by 10-1-15 points; Raiders are 2-3 in visits here. NFC North teams are 14-9 vs spread out of division, 1-3 as home dogs; AFC West teams are 12-15, 1-3 as road faves. Over is 3-0-1 in last four Raider games, 4-1 in last five Lion games.

Cowboys (2-7) @ Dolphins (4-5)-- Romo expected back under center for Dallas, which lost all seven games in his absence- wouldn't expect miracles here- how good is his conditioning? Miami is 3-2 since coaching change; they're 0-4 when allowing 27+ points, 4-1 if allowing less- Fish are playing just third home game- they split pair of one-sided games. Dallas lost last three road games, by 6-7-4 points; their only road win was at Philly, where Miami won last week. Pokes won last two series games 37-20/20-19; they've won last two visits here. Teams are 0-6 SU week after playing Bucs, 5-3 after playing Eagles. NFC East squads are 8-13 vs spread out of division; AFC East teams are 12-9-1. Miami ran ball for just 73.3 ypg in last three games. Over is 5-3 in last eight Dolphin games.

Colts (4-5) @ Falcons (6-3)-- 40-year old backup QB Hasselbeck gets nod for Colts, who won his other two starts (over Jags/Texans). Indy won/covered eight of last ten post-bye games; they're 13-2 in last 15 games vs Falcons, winning seven of last eight here, but their last visit here was in '07. Atlanta won last six post-bye games (5-1 vs spread); they limped into bye, losing three of last four games after 5-0 start- their last two wins are by 6 in OT, 3 points. Falcons were -6 in turnovers in last five games, after being +6 in first four. Colts are 2-3 SU in last five games, but 4-0 vs spread as an underdog. Four of last five Indy games went over; four of last five Falcon games stayed under. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 10-7, 6-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 9-7, 5-5 on road.

Rams (4-5) @ Ravens (2-7)-- St Louis was so putrid last week (0-12 on passes 10+ yards downfield) they're switching to Keenum at QB here. Rams are 22-102 on third down in last eight games; Welker's first game didn't help any, but it will in time. All eight Ravens games have been decided by 8 or less points; Ravens are Rams are 3-0 in division games, 1-5 in all others; they're 1-2 as road dogs this year, losing on road by 14-14-3 points. Home side won four of last five series games (Ravens 3-2). Underdogs are 0-2 week after playing Chicago; favorites are 1-2 after playing Jaguars. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 4-7 against spread; AFC North home teams are 6-5. Six of last eight St Louis games stayed under; three of four Raven home games went over.

Jets (5-4) @ Texans (4-5)-- Houston is tied for first in AFC South; they've won last couple games, not allowing TD either game. Hoyer had concussion Monday; unsure of his status- #3 QB Yates would take his place- they cut their #2 QB. Jets are +12 in turnovers in five wins, -9 in four losses; they lost last two road games, allowing 32 ppg. Texans allowed only 467 TY last two games, 159 on ground; they allowed 9 or less points in three of four wins, are 1-5 allowing double figure points. Houston turned ball over twice in last four games (+7) Favorites are 1-4 vs spread week after playing the Bengals. AFC East teams are 12-9-1 vs spread out of division, AFC South teams 10-14. Four of last five Jet games, four of last six Houston games went over total.

Packers (6-3) @ Vikings (7-2)-- Unlikely scenario has Minnesota in first place here; they've won five games in row, covered last eight; they're 4-0 at home, allowing 14.5 ppg. Packers lost last three games, with no sacks; they had 23 sacks during 6-0 start. Green Bay is 9-1-1 in last 11 games with Minnesota; five of their last six series wins were by 9+ points. Must be noted that this is Green Bay's first game on carpet this year; they're 1-7 vs spread in last eight games on fake grass. Packers lost last two road games, but both foes were unbeaten at time; Peterson looks like old self; Vikings ran ball for 148.8 ypg in last four games. Throw in Bridgewater's mobility and thats why they've improved. Five of last six Green Bay games stayed under total; over is 4-2-1 in last seven Minnesota games.

Buccaneers (4-5) @ Eagles (4-5)-- Looks like Sanchez starts at QB for fading Philly, after they blew early 16-3 lead at home last week. Eagles are 4-1 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 if they score less- they've split four home games. Tampa allowed 30+ points in four of last six games; they're 3-1 as road dogs, losing by 10 in Houston, 1 in Washington. Philly won last three games with Bucs by 19-2-11 points. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-4 vs spread; NFC South underdogs are 6-4, 4-3 on road. Teams are 5-2 week after playing Miami, 2-4-1 week after playing Dallas. Seven of last nine Philly games stayed under total; four of last six Tampa games went over. Tampa Bay covered four of last five games overall. Philly scored TD on defense/special teams in three of its four wins.

Broncos (7-2) @ Bears (4-5)-- Osweiler gets first NFL start in his 4th year; he's thrown 54 career passes. Arizona State was 6-7 the only year he was their starter. Denver fired Fox 10 months ago; now they meet again here, with former Bronco QB Cutler leading a Bear squad that won four of last six games after an 0-3 start. Chicago has allowed six TDs on offense or special teams, two more than any other team; they're 1-3 at home with only win 22-20 over Oakland. Broncos lost last two games after a 7-0 start. AFC West teams are 6-8 vs spread on road outside its division; NFC North teams are 7-4 at home. Three of last four Chicago games went over total. Osweiler's backup is Northwestern rookie Siemian. Teams split 14 series games overall, with last two going to overtime.

Bengals (8-1) @ Cardinals (7-2)-- Carson Palmer once threatened to quit rather than play for the Bengals; now he plays here against them, for 7-2 Cardinals who have 3-game lead in NFC West after 39-32 win in Seattle LW. Redbirds are 21 of last 33 on third down; in only two losses, they were -3 in turnovers both games. Cincy is 11-3-1 in last 15 games as a dog; they're on short week after Monday night loss at home to Texans. Home side won nine of last ten series games; Bengals lost 28-7/17-14 in last two visits here, with last visit here in 2003. Seven of nine Arizona games went over total; last three Bengal games stayed under. NFC North teams are 13-11-1 vs spread out of division, 6-5-1 as dogs NFC West favorites are 6-7, 3-4 at home. Don't tell CBS, but this is a potential Super Bowl matchup.

49ers (3-6) @ Seahawks (4-5)-- Seattle hasn't allowed offensive TD in any of its wins, lost all five games when they allowed a TD; they are 0-5 when allowing more than 12 points. Seahawks (-6.5) beat 49ers 20-3 four weeks ago in a Thursday game, running for 176 yards. Seattle is 1-3 as home favorite, losing last two home games to Panthers/Cards. Niners lost last four visits here (three by 10+ points); five of last six series totals were 36 or less. SF is 1-3 as road underdog, losing away games by an average score of 37-15. Since 1990, 49ers are 1-6 vs spread as a post-bye underdog; they're 2-8-1 in last 11 post-bye games. Dogs off a bye this season are 8-3 vs spread. Teams are 0-8 vs spread week after playing Arizona. Under is 5-3 in last eight Seattle games, 3-0 in last three Niner tilts.

Chiefs (4-5) @ Chargers (2-7)-- KC has +10 turnover ratio during 3-game win streak that includes easy win at Denver LW; they were -2 in turnovers the first six games. Chiefs won 23-20/19-7 in last two games vs San Diego, after losing 11 of previous 13 series games. KC lost six of last seven visits here, with three of six losses by 3 or less points. San Diego has only one TD drive of less than 60 yards all season, least in league; they've lost five games in row, all by 8 or less points. Bolts lost last three home games, allowing 27.7 ppg. Teams are 1-4 vs spread week after playing Denver. San Diego is 1-6 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Chief games. For season, Chargers started four drives in enemy territory, their opponents 16. Six of last seven series totals were 43+.

Bills (5-4) @ Patriots (9-0)-- NE (+1) won first meeting 40-32 in Week 2, throwing for 451 yards- two of its four TD drives were 13-30 yards, thanks to three takeaways (+1). Pats are 27-3 in last 30 series games; Buffalo's 17-9 win here LY was its first in last 14 visits to Foxboro. Bills are 2-0 since bye, running for 207 ypg; they're 3-0 in true road games, 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Patriots are 3-0-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 7-34-7-29-17 points- they needed 54-yard FG at gun LW in Swamp to stay unbeaten. Patriots lead NFL with 12 TD drives of less than 60 yards; their defense/special teams set offense up for shorter drives. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 11-21-1 vs spread. Three of last four Buffalo games went over total; last three Patriot games stayed under.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11

Adrian Peterson has helped the Vikings post 39 runs of 10 or more yards, and now faces a Packers team that has allowed 31 runs of 10 or more yards in Week 11.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 45.5)

Bucs’ short secondary vs. Eagles’ tall targets

Mark Sanchez could be making the throws for the Eagles this weekend, with starting QB Sam Bradford sidelined with a nasty combo of shoulder injury/concussion. If the backup is under center, it’s a good thing Philadelphia’s receivers have a big size advantage over their defenders Sunday. The Eagles roll out a receiving corps bigger than most and have been instituting a lot of two-tight end sets in recent weeks, putting even more beef on the field.

Top WR Jordan Matthews stands 6-foot-3, Riley Cooper is 6-foot-4, Miles Austin is 6-foot-2, and rookie WR is 6-foot-1. Throw tight ends Brent Celek (6-foot-4) and Zach Ertz (6-foot-5) into the mix and the Eagles are winning the majority of jump balls and giving whichever QB is playing a large berth to throw to.

Tampa Bay has a diminutive set of corners with starters Sterling Moore and Jude Adjei-Barimah standing 5-foot-10 and 5-foot-11 respectively. Fellow CBs Mike Jenkins and Alterraun Verner are also 5-foot-10. The Bucs have done well against the pass and haven’t given up to many deep plays, but could have a tough time measuring up Philadelphia’s big men.

Daily fantasy watch: Jordan Matthews WR

New York Jets at Houston Texans (N/A)

Jets’ pass defense vs. Texans’ dropped passes

Only one team in the NFL has thrown the ball more than the Texans at this point (San Diego), with Houston averaging almost 44 throws per game and passing the ball on 63.46 percent of its offensive snaps this season. So it comes as no surprise that the Texans top the league in drops – the math makes sense.

However, looking at the percentage of balls dropped by Houston receivers shows that not only are the Texans receivers busy but their also careless, posting a drop percentage of 6.1, according to sportingcharts.com. That number could go up – and Houston’s competition percentage could go down (56.71%, fourth worst) – with backup QB T.J. Yates taking over for the concussed Brian Hoyer in Week 11.

Yates and a dumbed-down playbook face a tough Jets pass defense that tops the league in opposing completion percentage, allowing foes to connect on just 57 percent of their throws. New York has 10 interceptions on the season, and plenty to prove after giving up some big numbers to opponents in past weeks. The secondary has been blasted by the Big Apple media but did allow just 158 yards on 17-of-27 passing in a loss to the Bills last week. Star corner Darrelle Revis will be assigned to Texans stud wideout DeAndre Hopkins.

Daily fantasy watch: New York D/ST

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 44.5)

Packers’ big play problems vs. Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson

My how the tables have turned in the NFC North. The Vikings find themselves atop the division table and set as a home favorite against the once-mighty Packers in Week 11. A big part of Minnesota’s success so far has been the resurgence of Adrian Peterson, who was a question mark coming into the year following his season-long absence due to child abuse case in 2014.

“All Day” has proven doubters wrong and is coming off his biggest effort of the season, rushing for 203 yards and a touchdown versus Oakland last week. Peterson picked up the bulk of those gains with an 80-yard TD rush and has posted 18 runs of 40 or more yards throughout his career. He’s helped the Vikings rumble for 10 or more yards 39 times this season – second most in the NFL.

Green Bay has allowed 116.2 yards on the ground per game and have given up 4.2 yards per rush attempt. The Packers' biggest issue is stopping the running back before they can pick up steam, allowing 31 runs of 10 yards or more heading into Week 11 – fifth most in the NFL. The last time the Cheeseheads faced Peterson, they gave up 146 yards on the ground and a score to No. 28.

Daily fantasy watch: Adrian Peterson RB

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-5, 48.5)

Andy Dalton’s primetime problems vs. Cardinals’ sneaky secondary

There’s the Andy Dalton we know. After defying his past catalogue of blunder for eight games, the Bengals quarterback fell back into bad habits during his team’s first loss of the season to Houston on Monday Night Football. Dalton, who was making a push for NFL MVP, passed for just 197 yards on 22-of-38 passes with one interception and a big goose egg in the touchdown column – the first time this season he hasn’t connected for a score.

Dalton is known for poor performance under the primetime lights, but was shaking that stigma. In the three game prior to last week’s loss, the Red Rocket had seven touchdowns, only three INTs and boasted a completion rate of over 72 percent. However, in his first eight night games, Dalton had seven touchdowns to eight picks and failed to complete even 53 percent of his throws.

He gets a second shot to right the ship with Cincinnati co-headlining the Sunday Night Football broadcast, but his opponent doesn’t play well with other quarterbacks. The Cardinals have one of the most entertaining secondaries in football, and sit tied for the league lead with 14 interceptions. Arizona has limited opposing passers to just 58.46 percent completions – fifth lowest – and give up only 6.2 yards when foes actually do connect with the football.

Daily fantasy watch: Arizona D/ST

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, November 22




Chance of thunderstorms in Miami Sunday afternoon


According to weather forecasts, there is a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms and rain at Sun Life Stadium in Miami when the Dolphins host the Dallas Cowboys Sunday afternoon.


Temperatures in Miami are expected to be in the high-70s while wind is forecast to blow across the field at around 12 miles per hour.


Current lines have the Dolphins as 1-point home underdogs and the total at 46.5.




Raiders struggling versus NFC opponents


The Oakland Raiders have made impressive strides to get to a 4-5 straight up record this season but they have been costing their backers in games against the NFC in recent seasons.


The Raiders have gone 1-15 SU and 6-9-1 against the spread in their last 16 games versus teams from the other conference. Included in there is an 0-2 SU and ATS mark this season thanks to losses to the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings.


Their meetings with the NFC North continues as they travel to face the Detroit Lions Sunday afternoon. Books opened the Raiders as 1-point road faves but that has since moved to +1.




Lions have been costing backers in home games


It's been a frustrating season for the Detroit Lions, their fans and their backers, who have felt the sting of a 2-7 record against the spread this season.


But where the Lions have really cost their backers is, perhaps surprisingly, at home. The Lions head into Sunday's date with the Oakland Raiders 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) in their four home games.


Books opened the Lions as 1-point home dogs for Sunday's contest, but that has moved to Lions -1.




Once among the best bets, Falcons on horrible stretch


It seems like a distant memory that the Atlanta Falcons were 4-0 against the spread and among the best wagers in the NFL. Since beginning the season as a red hot wager, the Falcons have done a 180 and turned into a team that is costing bettors week in, week out.


The Falcons have lost their last five games ATS and, while favored in each contest, have lost three of those straight up (at New Orleans, vs. Tampa Bay, at San Francisco).


Can they right the ship against Matt Hasslebeck and the Indianapolis Colts at home Sunday afternoon? Books opened the Falcons as 6-point home faves and that has since moved to -5.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, November 22

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Bengals at Cardinals
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Carson Palmer is 20-4 in his last 24 starts with Arizona.

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 48.5)

After prevailing in a high-profile prime-time matchup at Seattle last weekend, the Arizona Cardinals face another daunting change when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night in a battle of division leaders. It will mark only the second home game in an eight-game span for Arizona, which has won three straight to open a three-game lead in the NFC West.

Cincinnati may have got caught looking ahead to Arizona in a 10-6 loss to Houston on Monday night that ended its perfect 8-0 start to the season. “We just have to put this one behind us,” Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton said. “We can’t let this turn into another one. We can’t let there be any carry over." Cincinnati still holds a 2 1/2-game lead over Pittsburgh atop the AFC North as it prepares for a matchup with ex-Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, who was traded in 2011 after a bitter standoff with team management. "It's not just another game," said Palmer, who will lead Arizona's top-ranked offense against a defense permitting an NFL-low 16.9 points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Cardinals as 3.5-point home faves, but that has moved to -4.5. The total is up to 48.5 from the opening 47.

INJURY REPORT:

Bengals - DE Carlos Dunlap (Probable, shoulder), S Shawn Williams (Probable, ankle), T Andre Smith (Probable, concussion), DT Marcus Hardison (Questionable, knee), DE Michael Johnson (Doubtful, back), CB Adam Jones (Doubtful, foot), DT Pat Sims (Doubtful, knee), LB Sean Porter (I-R, knee), WR James Wright (I-R, knee), T Cedric Ogbuehi (I-R, knee).

Cardinals - WR Larry Fitzgerald (Probable, ankle), CB Justin Bethel (Probable, illness), G Mike Iupati (Probable, neck), LB Markus Golden (Questionable, ankle), WR John Brown (Questionable, hamstring), WR Michael Floyd (Questionable, hamstring), DE Cory Redding (Out, ankle), G Jonathan Cooper (Out, knee), LB Daryl Washington (Out indefinitely, suspension), LB Kenny Demens (I-R, knee), TE Ifeanyi Momah (I-R, knee), DT Corey Peters (I-R, Achilles), TE Gerald Christian (I-R, knee).

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-6) + Cardinals (-5) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -2

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "It''s like clockwork. Get Andy Dalton in a big game under the lights and he forgets how to play quarterback. Same story with Marvin Lewis and his ability to coach! Arizona's protection schemes broke down after lineman Mike Iupati was carted off the field on Sunday Night. The good news for Zona is that he could be back on the field by Sunday."

ABOUT THE BENGALS (8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Dalton had been a model of efficiency during the first eight games, but he was held under 200 yards and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time while getting sacked four times on Monday. Running back Jeremy Hill has been unable to follow up on his stellar rookie season, failing to reach the end zone during a five-game span in which he's rushed for 196 yards. A.J. Green remains Dalton's favorite target with 55 receptions, while Cincinnati's defense has racked up 26 sacks and held each of its last three opponents to 10 points.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 O/U): Palmer, who is second in the league with 23 scoring passes, overcame three turnovers to direct two fourth-quarter touchdown drives of at least 80 yards to knock off the Seahawks. While Larry Fitzgerald already has 65 catches, Arizona has injury concerns at wideout as Michael Floyd missed his second day of practice and John Brown was limited Thursday due to hamstring injuries. The Cardinals have recorded only 15 sacks, but they have a secondary capable of matching up with Green and Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert (9 TDs).

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Bengals last seven games in November.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of users are backing the Cardinals.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 22


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


OAK at DET 01:00 PM


OAK -1.0 AFC/NFC GOM


O 48.5




IND at ATL 01:00 PM


IND +3.5 *****


O 48.0 TRIPLE PLAY




NYJ at HOU 01:00 PM


HOU +4.0 *****


U 40.0




TB at PHI 01:00 PM


TB +6.5


O 45.5




DEN at CHI 01:00 PM


DEN -2.0 TRIPLE PLAY


U 41.5




STL at BAL 01:00 PM


STL +3.0 DOUBLE PLAY


U 41.0 DOUBLE PLAY




DAL at MIA 01:00 PM


MIA +2.5 *****


U 46.0




WAS at CAR 01:00 PM


CAR -7.0 BLOW OUT


U 44.0




KC at SD 04:05 PM


SD +3.0 DOUBLE PLAY


O 45.0




GB at MIN 04:25 PM


MIN -1.0 TRIPLE PLAY


O 45.0




SF at SEA 04:25 PM


SF +14.0 TRIPLE PLAY


U 40.0 TRIPLE PLAY




CIN at ARI 08:30 PM


CIN +4.5 DOUBLE PLAY


O 48.0 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Bills at Patriots
November 23, 2015


The Bills are searching for their first playoff berth since getting bounced on the Music City Miracle by Tennessee in the 1999 Wild Card round. Buffalo still has a ways to go in the 2015 season with seven games remaining, but Rex Ryan’s club attempts to win its third straight game tonight and improve to 6-4, which would tie the Bills with the Steelers for one of two AFC Wild Card spots. However, the task will be anything but easy against Ryan’s nemesis, Bill Belichick and the 9-0 Patriots.


New England avoided its first loss of the season last Sunday in dramatic fashion, as Stephen Gostkowski’s 54-yard field goal in the final seconds propelled the Patriots past the Giants, 27-26. The Patriots failed to cash as seven-point road favorites, as Tom Brady’s 76-yard touchdown connection with tight end Rob Gronkowski put New England in front, 24-23 early in the fourth quarter. Josh Brown’s 29-yard field goal gave the Giants a 26-24 advantage with two minutes remaining prior to Gostkowski’s booming kick at the gun, as New England is off to its first 9-0 start since 2007, when it finished a perfect 16-0 in the regular season.


The Pats did suffer a loss in a sense as top wide receiver Julian Edelman broke his foot and is sidelined until late December. Edelman leads New England with 61 receptions and is second on the team in receiving yardage behind Gronkowski with 692 yards. Danny Amendola stepped up against the Giants by hauling in 10 catches for 79 yards, as eight different Patriots caught a pass from Brady last Sunday.


The Bills are coming off consecutive victories for the first time this season, beating their second straight division foe with a 22-17 triumph over Ryan’s old club, the Jets. For as much as Rex can claim last Thursday’s game at Met Life Stadium wasn't about him, he was pleased with his defense that allowed 17 points for the second consecutive week, while the Buffalo special teams scored a touchdown on a fumbled kickoff by the Jets in the second quarter. The Bills picked up the cover as 2 ½-point underdogs, aided by running back LeSean McCoy’s second straight 100-yard game on the ground, rushing for 112 yards.


The last time the Bills and Patriots hooked up came back in Week 2 at Ralph Wilson Stadium as New England outlasted Buffalo, 40-32 as two-point underdogs. Brady cut up the Bills’ secondary for 466 yards and three touchdowns, while three different Patriots picked up at least 97 yards receiving. The only problem with that is two of those players won’t be on the field tonight as Edelman (97 yards, 2 TD’s) and running back Dion Lewis (98 yards) are both hurt. New England’s defense intercepted Bills’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor three times as the ‘over’ of 45 cashed before the fourth quarter started.


Buffalo won at Gillette Stadium in Week 17 of last season, 17-9, but that victory is pretty meaningless since the Patriots rested Brady after the first quarter and Gronkowski sat out. The Bills last picked up a victory at New England in somewhat of a meaningful spot back in 2000, Belichick’s first season as head coach and one season before Brady took over the reins under center. Buffalo owns a 4-2 ATS record in its last six trips to Foxboro, while Ryan has put together a 4-1 ATS mark in his last five head-to-head matchups with Belichick, even though three of those covers came as an underdog of 9 ½ points or more with the Jets.


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson notes that Ryan’s defense will have work to do to slow down the Pats, “Statistically New England has gained over 418 yards per game for the second best mark in the NFL behind Arizona. Buffalo is 22nd in the league in total offense. The Patriots are the top scoring team in the NFL, but Buffalo is actually not far behind as the sixth best scoring team in the NFL through week 10. The defensive yardage numbers are nearly even for these teams which has been a disappointing area for a Bills team that was one of the best defenses in the league last season. New England has surprised with the #4 scoring defense in the NFL at this point and a lot of the scoring against the Patriots has come late in games where they have had a substantial lead.”


The underdogs on Monday night football continue to be a solid bet after Houston handed Cincinnati its first loss of the season last week in a 10-6 triumph as 10-point ‘dogs. Teams receiving points on Monday nights this season improved to 9-2 ATS and 6-5 SU, while the ‘under’ has hit nine of 11 times.


The Patriots are playing in their first Monday night game at Gillette Stadium since 2012 when they routed the Texans, 42-14. New England is winless in its last two Monday appearances, losing at Carolina in 2013 and getting destroyed at Kansas City last September. The Bills have endured a long Monday night drought, playing under this spotlight for the first time since the 2009 season opener at New England, cashing as 13-point underdogs in a 25-24 defeat.


Buffalo has won and covered in each of its three opportunities as a road underdog this season, extending its record in this role to 8-2 ATS since the start of 2014. The Patriots own a 1-1-1 ATS mark as a single-digit home favorite this season, while posting a 11-5-1 ATS ledger when laying less than 10 points at home since the beginning of 2013.


From a totals perspective, each team is 5-4 to the ‘over,’ as Buffalo’s three-game ‘over’ streak came to a halt with last Thursday’s ‘under’ at New York. After hitting ‘overs’ in two of its first three home contests, the Patriots have finished ‘under’ the total in their last two games at Gillette against the Dolphins and Redskins. New England allowed 10 points or less in back-to-back home games for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2013 season, which included giving up 10 to Ryan’s Jets in a 13-10 victory.


The Patriots are listed as seven-point favorites at most books, while the total is hovering between 48 and 48 ½. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30’s around kickoff at Gillette Stadium, which is scheduled for 8:30 PM EST, as this AFC East battle can be seen nationally on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

Pats look to stay perfect
November 22, 2015




BUFFALO BILLS (5-4) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-0)


Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -7, Total: 48.5


The unbeaten Patriots look to maintain their dominance over the Bills when these division foes close out Week 11 on Monday night.


Buffalo (5-4 ATS) is heating up at the right time with back-to-back wins over AFC East foes Miami and the New York Jets, and has been an excellent road team this season at 3-1 (SU and ATS). New England (5-2-2 ATS) survived a scare against the Giants last week and needed a 54-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski in the closing seconds to improve to 9-0 SU. Since the 2012 calendar year, the Patriots own a commanding 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) advantage in this series with the lone defeat being a meaningless 17-9 result last December when a playoff berth was already sewn up.


When these clubs met earlier this season, the Bills kept it close before falling 40-32 at home. The betting trends overwhelmingly favor New England, such as its 8-1 ATS mark at home versus teams with 24+ PPG in the past three seasons or its 12-2 ATS record since 2014 after playing in a shootout where 50+ points were scored. But Buffalo falls in the category of road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a 2-1 ATS stretch going 43-17 ATS over the past 10 seasons in a matchup of two winning teams in the second half of the season.


The Patriots have been decimated by injuries all year, with none bigger than top WR Julian Edelman who injured his foot last Sunday and is out indefinitely. His teammates LB Jamie Collins and OLs Marcus Cannon (toe), Sebastian Vollmer (concussion) and Tre' Jackson (knee) are all listed as questionable for Monday night, which is the same status for the lone Bills player appearing on the injury report, OT Cyrus Kouandjio, who is questionable with a knee injury.


Buffalo has also been hurt by injuries this season to its offensive skill players, but everybody now appears healthy for the stretch drive and the offense is eager to improve on strong numbers of 25.7 PPG and 343 total YPG. QB Tyrod Taylor has enjoyed a fine season with a 5-2 starter record, 1,436 passing yards (205 YPG), 11 TD and 4 INT. But three of those picks came in the Week 2 loss to the Patriots to ruin a productive day of Taylor totaling 285 total yards and four touchdowns (3 pass, 1 rush). He is helped out greatly by a potent rushing attack chewing up 142 YPG on 4.8 YPC this year.


This includes 160 yards in the Sept. 20 loss to New England led by RB LeSean McCoy's 89 yards on 15 totes. McCoy has 528 yards this season on 4.7 YPC, and has shared the workload with both RB Karlos Williams (360 rush yds, 6.2 YPC) and Taylor (243 rush yds, 5.2 YPC).


Defensively, the Bills need to get more pressure on the quarterback as their 14 sacks pale in comparison to the 54 sacks they recorded last year. For the season, the Buffalo defense is holding teams to 23.0 PPG and 350 total YPG. This is broken down between 97 rushing YPG allowed (4.1 YPC) and 252 passing YPG allowed (6.4 YPA). But considering how easy it was for the Patriots to throw on Buffalo in Week 2, this could be another tough task for the defense.


New England QB Tom Brady (339 passing YPG, 24 TD, 3 INT) is having a phenomenal 2015 campaign, and he lit up the Bills for 466 passing yards (7.9 YPA) and three touchdowns back in September. However, the top yardage gainer that day, RB Dion Lewis (138), and the player with the most receptions, WR Julian Edelman (11 receptions), are both injured for the rematch. Brady is a dominant 21-3 SU (14-9-1 ATS) in his career versus Buffalo, throwing for 255 YPG, 57 TD and 17 INT.


Brady will continue to heavily target TE Rob Gronkowski, who had seven receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 versus the Bills. But he must also give more targets to WRs Danny Amendola (403 rec yds, 2 TD), Brandon LaFell (240 rec yds) and Aaron Dobson (124 rec yds), who went for 87 yards on seven catches versus Buffalo. With Lewis injured, the ground game has belonged to RB LeGarrette Blount (513 rush yds, 4.4 YPC, 6 TD), who has rushed for 267 yards and 2 TD over the past three games since Lewis went down.


The Patriots defense has already recorded 30 sacks this year, including 10.5 sacks by DE Chandler Jones. Opponents have only 18.8 PPG and 344 YPG against New England, whose run-stop unit is limiting teams to 88 YPG on 4.0 YPC. The Patriots do surrender 256 passing YPG on 6.4 YPA, but the passing defense has nine interceptions and only 14 touchdowns allowed.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, November 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Bills at Patriots
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If the Patriots can defeat the Bills they will be one win away from winning their 7th straight AFC East crown.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7.5, 48)

A rash of injuries continues to threaten the New England Patriots' pursuit of a perfect record as they prepare for a second matchup with Rex Ryan and the visiting Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The Patriots kept their unbeaten record intact - barely - with a last-second, 54-yard field goal in a 27-26 win at the New York Giants last weekend but lost another key player in the process.

Wide receiver Julian Edelman, who had a team-leading 61 catches to go along with seven touchdowns, broke a bone in his foot Sunday and is expect to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks. "You wish you could just plug somebody else in but it's impossible," New England quarterback Tom Brady said. "Julian Edelmans aren't just sitting out on the street anywhere, they'd be playing for another team." Ryan, who moved from the New York Jets to Buffalo in the offseason, will be trying to avenge a 40-32 loss to the Patriots in Week 2. The Bills are tied for second in the AFC East following back-to-back wins over division rivals Miami and New York.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady at the opening line of Patriots -7.5 for most of the week, with just the juice adjusting. The total has been bet down one point from its opening number, going from 49 to 48.

INJURY REPORT:

Bills - T C. Kouandjio (probable Monday, knee), CB L. McKelvin (probable Monday, illness), RB K. Williams (probable Monday illness), RG R. Incognito (questionable Monday, shoulder).

Patriots - OL M. Cannon (questionable Monday, toe), G T. Jackson (questionable Monday, knee), T S. Vollmer (questionable Monday, head), WR K. Martin (questionable Monday, hamstring), WR M. Slater (questionable Monday, undisclosed), LB J. Collins (out Monday, illness), WR J. Edelman (out indefinitely, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice, but chilly night for football in Foxborough. The forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 30's. There will be a very slight 3-5 mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast end zone.

POWER RANKINGS: Bills (-2.5) - Patriots (-8.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -9.5

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-4, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Since coming off its bye, Buffalo has had success with a ground-and-pound attack that Ryan favored with the Jets, getting a combined 378 yards rushing and four touchdowns from the running back tandem of LeSean McCoy and rookie Karlos Williams. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been picked off once since throwing three interceptions in the Week 2 loss to New England while wide receiver Sammy Watkins provides a big play threat if he can remain healthy. The Bills have yielded 17 points in each of the last two weeks after giving up 68 in the previous two losses.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (9-0, 5-3-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Brady (league-best 24 TD passes) carved up Buffalo for 466 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting as New England barely thought about running the ball, but two players who combined for 17 catches in that game - Edelman and Dion Lewis - are now out. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has a team-high eight touchdowns, had seven receptions and the first of his five 100-yard games this season in the earlier meeting. The Patriots are second in the league in rushing yards allowed (88.2) and third in sacks (30), led by Chandler Jones' NFL-high 10.5.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Road team is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with New England in this AFC East matchup, with 57 percent of wagers on the Patriots. The public is also on the over with 68 percent of wagers on it.

 

[CNOTES]

Bills (5-4) @ Patriots (9-0)-- NE (+1) won first meeting 40-32 in Week 2, throwing for 451 yards- two of its four TD drives were 13-30 yards, thanks to three takeaways (+1). Pats are 27-3 in last 30 series games; Buffalo's 17-9 win here LY was its first in last 14 visits to Foxboro. Bills are 2-0 since bye, running for 207 ypg; they're 3-0 in true road games, 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Patriots are 3-0-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 7-34-7-29-17 points- they needed 54-yard FG at gun LW in Swamp to stay unbeaten. Patriots lead NFL with 12 TD drives of less than 60 yards; their defense/special teams set offense up for shorter drives. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 11-21-1 vs spread. Three of last four Buffalo games went over total; last three Patriot games stayed under.

 

[CNOTES]

Buffalo @ New England


Game 475-476
November 23, 2015 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
137.643
New England
141.509
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 4
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+7 1/2); Over


------------------------------


Monday, November 23


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BUFFALO (5 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 0) - 11/23/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 219-178 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 219-178 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 170-129 ATS (+28.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-77 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-49 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


-------------------------------


Monday - Nov, 23


Buffalo at New England, 8:30 ET
Buffalo: 11-24 ATS in road games off a win against a division rival
New England: 16-6 ATS in home games


------------------------------


Monday, November 23


8:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


BUF at NE 08:30 PM


NE -7.0 TRIPLE PLAY


U 47.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND against the spread in All games in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)


----------------


NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in all games
The record is 24 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.1 units)


NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in all lined games
The record is 24 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.1 units)


----------------------


NFL > (263) BUFFALO@ (264) KANSAS CITY | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play ON BUFFALO ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 19 Wins and 5 Losses for the since 1992 (+13.5 units)


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NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play UNDER BUFFALO on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)