TNF - Titans at Jaguars
November 19, 2015
It might wind up being the gift that keeps on giving, but that’s going to depend on whether Jacksonville continues to improve over the course of the next six weeks. Baltimore’s Elvis Dumervil provided the opportunity by irresponsibly sacking Jaguars QB Blake Bortles by his facemask, drawing a penalty that led to an untimed down with no time left on the clock. Rookie kicker Jason Myers came through with a 53-yard field goal, the longest game-winner in the NFL this season, giving the Jags a surprising 22-20 road victory on Sunday afternoon.
Consider it an early Christmas present.
Less than 24 hours later, the league apologized for its officials for the umpteenth time this season, pointing out the Jaguars offensive line wasn’t set and regretting that the final play was allowed to proceed in the first place. Dumervil’s sack and subsequent penalty should’ve never happened, but Jacksonville isn’t giving the win back. Since it plays in the worst division in football, an AFC South topped by co-leaders Indianapolis and Houston, the victory means it opens Week 11 only one game behind the pace. Last-place Tennessee visits, so the Jaguars are actually a 3-point favorite to move to 4-6, which would match their highest win total since ’11 and be the most victories produced in the Gus Bradley era with six contests still remaining.
The Titans come in with a 2-7 mark, tied with five other teams for the second-worst record in the NFL behind 2-8 Cleveland. They’ve already fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt, replacing him on an interim basis with veteran Mike Mularkey. Rookie Marcus Mariota has displayed flashes of brilliance but has also dealt with multiple nagging injuries, missing two games due to a sprained MCL. The No. 2 pick in this past April’s draft followed up a four-touchdown performance in New Orleans in his return to action with a flat effort at home in last week’s 27-10 loss to Carolina.
It probably tells you all you need to know about Tennessee’s fortunes that the most buzz it generated last week came as a result of a defense that was offended over Panthers QB Cam Newton celebrating too long in its end zone. In the grand scheme of things, Mariota winning AFC Player of the Week honors on two occasions and enjoying a promising first year makes this season a win, but the remaining seven games will serve as a proving ground for Mularkey and the remaining coaches and players.
One member of the offense who looks like a keeper due to Mariota’s affinity for him is tight end Delanie Walker, who leads the Titans in targets (56), receptions (45), receiving TDs (5) and receiving yards (508). Jacksonville has surrendered the ninth-most yardage against opposing tight ends, making Walker a key x-factor in this one.
Tennessee has surrendered the fifth-highest percentage of touchdowns per reception to opposing tight ends, so expect that position to play a major role in this Thursday night matchup. Julius Thomas was the Jags biggest offseason splash, leaving Denver to become the league’s highest-paid player at his position, signing a five-year $46 million contract. He fractured his hand in the preseason opener and was sidelined for the season’s first four games. Currently, he’s been dealing with a minor groin injury suffered in Week 7, but is ready to be more than a decoy. Thus far, he’s only had more than three receptions in a single game once and has a single touchdown in five appearances. Former Pro Bowler Marcedes Lewis has caught passes in five of the last six games, but the tight end tandem that new offensive coordinator Greg Olson envisioned hasn’t taken flight.
Despite that setback, second-year QB Bortles, the No. 3 pick of the ’14 draft, has demonstrated tremendous growth. His 19 touchdown passes are tied for seventh in the NFL with San Diego’s Philip Rivers, one behind New Orleans’ Drew Brees and two back of Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, New York’s Eli Manning and Oakland’s Derek Carr. His 11 interceptions rank fourth in the league since he still takes too many chances with the ball, entering this one with a streak of throwing a pick in five straight games. Some of that can be attributed to a young receiving corps, but a group led by Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns is making strides. Marqise Lee has been limited by hamstring injuries and rookie Rashad Greene has been bothered by a thumb ailment, but both are expected to go today. The collective youth of this group is one reason management decided to pass on taking Amari Cooper with this year’s No. 3 pick, taking Florida DE Dante Fowler instead. Fowler tore his ACL in the first hour of mini-camp and will miss the entire season.
The Jaguars have managed to pile up points despite allowing the league’s top rookie receiver to play for Oakland, averaging 26 points through the past five games as the ‘over’ has reigned supreme in four of the last five. Outside of Tennessee’s Week 9 34-point explosion in New Orleans, its offense has struggled mightily. The ‘under’ has prevailed in four of the last six for the Titans, who have only topped 13 points once during that stretch.
Thursday’s total opened at 44 and has dipped to 43 points at most betting shops. The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight midweek games but the last couple weeks could’ve easily went to the high side. VegasInsider.com NFL Totals expert Chris David weighs on this week’s number.
“Recent total history tells you that this game is a toss-up with the ‘over/under’ producing a 5-5 mark the last five seasons but the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run. During this span, we’ve only seen 30 or more points scored twice by one team and the 20-point plateau has been eclipsed seven times. Despite those facts, it wouldn’t be surprising to see both teams get in the twenties in this matchup. Mariota has played much better on the road (10 TDs) than at home and he should have his eyes wide open facing the Jacksonville defense, especially after playing Carolina’s stout unit,” explained David.
“Also, Jacksonville’s identity is an ‘over’ team. They have a weak defense, no running game and a quarterback that is capable to make big plays. The Jaguars have seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 this season.”
Balance will be key to Jacksonville’s attack, so having running back T.J. Yeldon healthy enough to anchor the ground game will be key. He’s been in a walking boot and hadn’t practiced, so his being listed as ‘questionable’ with a foot injury is legitimate. If he can’t play, carries will likely go to Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson since top backup Bernard Pierce is considered ‘doubtful.’
Tennessee’s most significant injury concerns come on the defensive side as top corner Jason McCourty and promising Blidi Wreh-Wilson are out again. McCourty (groin) has been placed on IR. Corner Perrish Cox insists he'll be able to play through a hamstring injury, but you can expect the Jags to test just how healthy he is if he's out there. Defensive end Derrick Morgan, Tennessee's most effective pass rusher, is 'questionable' with a shoulder injury. Receivers Kendall Wright (knee) and Justin Hunter (leg) have been ruled out, so rookie Dorial Green-Beckham is expected to play a major role beside veteran Harry Douglas and Walker.
The Titans and Jaguars have split their last dozen meetings, with the last meeting going to Jacksonville at home last December. The division rivals will square off in Nashville on Dec. 6.
Afternoon showers are expected to be a part of the forecast in North Florida, but there's a good chance the rain will clear out by kickoff.
November 19, 2015
It might wind up being the gift that keeps on giving, but that’s going to depend on whether Jacksonville continues to improve over the course of the next six weeks. Baltimore’s Elvis Dumervil provided the opportunity by irresponsibly sacking Jaguars QB Blake Bortles by his facemask, drawing a penalty that led to an untimed down with no time left on the clock. Rookie kicker Jason Myers came through with a 53-yard field goal, the longest game-winner in the NFL this season, giving the Jags a surprising 22-20 road victory on Sunday afternoon.
Consider it an early Christmas present.
Less than 24 hours later, the league apologized for its officials for the umpteenth time this season, pointing out the Jaguars offensive line wasn’t set and regretting that the final play was allowed to proceed in the first place. Dumervil’s sack and subsequent penalty should’ve never happened, but Jacksonville isn’t giving the win back. Since it plays in the worst division in football, an AFC South topped by co-leaders Indianapolis and Houston, the victory means it opens Week 11 only one game behind the pace. Last-place Tennessee visits, so the Jaguars are actually a 3-point favorite to move to 4-6, which would match their highest win total since ’11 and be the most victories produced in the Gus Bradley era with six contests still remaining.
The Titans come in with a 2-7 mark, tied with five other teams for the second-worst record in the NFL behind 2-8 Cleveland. They’ve already fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt, replacing him on an interim basis with veteran Mike Mularkey. Rookie Marcus Mariota has displayed flashes of brilliance but has also dealt with multiple nagging injuries, missing two games due to a sprained MCL. The No. 2 pick in this past April’s draft followed up a four-touchdown performance in New Orleans in his return to action with a flat effort at home in last week’s 27-10 loss to Carolina.
It probably tells you all you need to know about Tennessee’s fortunes that the most buzz it generated last week came as a result of a defense that was offended over Panthers QB Cam Newton celebrating too long in its end zone. In the grand scheme of things, Mariota winning AFC Player of the Week honors on two occasions and enjoying a promising first year makes this season a win, but the remaining seven games will serve as a proving ground for Mularkey and the remaining coaches and players.
One member of the offense who looks like a keeper due to Mariota’s affinity for him is tight end Delanie Walker, who leads the Titans in targets (56), receptions (45), receiving TDs (5) and receiving yards (508). Jacksonville has surrendered the ninth-most yardage against opposing tight ends, making Walker a key x-factor in this one.
Tennessee has surrendered the fifth-highest percentage of touchdowns per reception to opposing tight ends, so expect that position to play a major role in this Thursday night matchup. Julius Thomas was the Jags biggest offseason splash, leaving Denver to become the league’s highest-paid player at his position, signing a five-year $46 million contract. He fractured his hand in the preseason opener and was sidelined for the season’s first four games. Currently, he’s been dealing with a minor groin injury suffered in Week 7, but is ready to be more than a decoy. Thus far, he’s only had more than three receptions in a single game once and has a single touchdown in five appearances. Former Pro Bowler Marcedes Lewis has caught passes in five of the last six games, but the tight end tandem that new offensive coordinator Greg Olson envisioned hasn’t taken flight.
Despite that setback, second-year QB Bortles, the No. 3 pick of the ’14 draft, has demonstrated tremendous growth. His 19 touchdown passes are tied for seventh in the NFL with San Diego’s Philip Rivers, one behind New Orleans’ Drew Brees and two back of Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, New York’s Eli Manning and Oakland’s Derek Carr. His 11 interceptions rank fourth in the league since he still takes too many chances with the ball, entering this one with a streak of throwing a pick in five straight games. Some of that can be attributed to a young receiving corps, but a group led by Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns is making strides. Marqise Lee has been limited by hamstring injuries and rookie Rashad Greene has been bothered by a thumb ailment, but both are expected to go today. The collective youth of this group is one reason management decided to pass on taking Amari Cooper with this year’s No. 3 pick, taking Florida DE Dante Fowler instead. Fowler tore his ACL in the first hour of mini-camp and will miss the entire season.
The Jaguars have managed to pile up points despite allowing the league’s top rookie receiver to play for Oakland, averaging 26 points through the past five games as the ‘over’ has reigned supreme in four of the last five. Outside of Tennessee’s Week 9 34-point explosion in New Orleans, its offense has struggled mightily. The ‘under’ has prevailed in four of the last six for the Titans, who have only topped 13 points once during that stretch.
Thursday’s total opened at 44 and has dipped to 43 points at most betting shops. The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight midweek games but the last couple weeks could’ve easily went to the high side. VegasInsider.com NFL Totals expert Chris David weighs on this week’s number.
“Recent total history tells you that this game is a toss-up with the ‘over/under’ producing a 5-5 mark the last five seasons but the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run. During this span, we’ve only seen 30 or more points scored twice by one team and the 20-point plateau has been eclipsed seven times. Despite those facts, it wouldn’t be surprising to see both teams get in the twenties in this matchup. Mariota has played much better on the road (10 TDs) than at home and he should have his eyes wide open facing the Jacksonville defense, especially after playing Carolina’s stout unit,” explained David.
“Also, Jacksonville’s identity is an ‘over’ team. They have a weak defense, no running game and a quarterback that is capable to make big plays. The Jaguars have seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 this season.”
Balance will be key to Jacksonville’s attack, so having running back T.J. Yeldon healthy enough to anchor the ground game will be key. He’s been in a walking boot and hadn’t practiced, so his being listed as ‘questionable’ with a foot injury is legitimate. If he can’t play, carries will likely go to Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson since top backup Bernard Pierce is considered ‘doubtful.’
Tennessee’s most significant injury concerns come on the defensive side as top corner Jason McCourty and promising Blidi Wreh-Wilson are out again. McCourty (groin) has been placed on IR. Corner Perrish Cox insists he'll be able to play through a hamstring injury, but you can expect the Jags to test just how healthy he is if he's out there. Defensive end Derrick Morgan, Tennessee's most effective pass rusher, is 'questionable' with a shoulder injury. Receivers Kendall Wright (knee) and Justin Hunter (leg) have been ruled out, so rookie Dorial Green-Beckham is expected to play a major role beside veteran Harry Douglas and Walker.
The Titans and Jaguars have split their last dozen meetings, with the last meeting going to Jacksonville at home last December. The division rivals will square off in Nashville on Dec. 6.
Afternoon showers are expected to be a part of the forecast in North Florida, but there's a good chance the rain will clear out by kickoff.
