Cnotes WCup - Group Breakdown

[CNOTES]

Friday's Quarterfinal Tips

July 4, 2014

Germany vs. France (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

This is the best looking day of the World Cup so far. There are two quarter-finals, with four excellent teams represented. The winners will go on to meet each other in Belo Horizonte. The victors there will be 90 minutes away from World Cup glory.

The first game of the day sees France play Germany at the Maracana. The two sides are arguably Europe's strongest, and the game looks like being very close. France were hugely impressive in the group, but they had to work for their 2-0 win over Nigeria, only sealing the game in injury time. Germany also won their group, but came perilously close to a huge shock against Algeria, against whom they needed extra time to beat.

The key to both teams' second round wins were their managers' first substitutions. Didier Deschamps started with Olivier Giroud leading the line, with Karim Benzema in an inside-left role. This didn't work. Giroud's hold up play was poor, and he and Benzema got in each other's way. When Giroud was taken off for winger Antoine Griezmann, Benzema was moved up front and France instantly improved. I expect Griezmann to start today.

Germany played three very similar players against Algeria in Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and Mario Gotze. While there are subtle differences among the trio, they all prefer to play just behind the striker. Algeria's massed defence played very narrow, and Germany simply didn't have the width to stretch Algeria. Once Andre Schurrle, another winger, came on for the quiet Gotze, Germany started testing the Algerian backline much more. There will be a clamour for Joachim Low to start Schurrle against the French.

France look excellent value here at 43/20 with Sportsbook.ag. The Germans will have tired a lot after playing the majority of their games in hot and humid conditions. France have, quite simply, looked better than Germany at the World Cup so far. While Germany have more tournament experience, they have ceased being the ruthless winners they were 20 years ago, and there is a softness to them that did not previously exist. They are 27/20 to win, with a draw 9/4.

Quarterfinal matches at the World Cup average almost exactly two goals per game, so under 2.5 is the favourite at 67/100. However, even given the low number of goals in normal time in the knockout rounds so far, over 2.5 appeals at 13/10 with two such attack-minded sides. Both teams to score is a 20/21 shot.

In the first goalscorer market, centre-forwards Karim Benzema and Thomas Muller are 5/1 and 4/1 respectively, but with so many good attacking midfielders on show, it may pay to look elsewhere. The two that stand out to me are Schurrle at 6/1 (he once scored four in one game for Germany) and France's midfield sensation Paul Pogba at 8/1.

Top Bet: France to win at 43/20

Colombia vs. Brazil (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Brazil face Colombia in both teams' second consecutive tie against a fellow South American team. It's another titanic clash. Brazil are still the favourites for the World Cup, but there are problems with the team. They are utterly reliant on Neymar (who, so far, has delivered) for attacking inspiration, while they are often a bit empty in the centre of midfield.

Colombia have been the best team at the World Cup so far, and attacking midfielder James Rodriguez the best player, who also scored the best goal. That came in a 2-0 win over Uruguay, whom they dominated from start to finish. This is their first ever game in the quarter-finals, which is extraordinary given the population and the number of world class players that have come from Colombia. It is a true golden generation. Can they keep calm?

Brazil have one big selection issue: defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo, their best player in the win on penalties against Chile, is suspended. He knits the side together superbly, and his defensive mindset compensates well for the cavalier approach of the two full-backs. Paulinho and Fernandinho will most likely be the pair Scolari opts for, but neither are like-for-like replacements. And with James Rodriguez buzzing around in the gap between midfield and defence, it is a dreadful time for Brazil to be without Gustavo.

I just can't resist Colombia here. They are 3/1 to win the game in 90 minutes, and 2/1 to qualify. Given the number of games that have gone to extra time, I'd take the latter option. Prior to the tournament, you'd expect Brazil to be about 1/2 to win this match, but given how much Colombia have impressed, they are in fact 87/100. A draw is available at 27/10, and also looks like a sound bet. Here again, few goals are expected with under 2.5 the 37/50 favourite.

We have seen an unusual number of goals in extra time so far: all six goals in the Germany v Algeria and Belgium v USA games came after 90 minutes, and Colombia to win in extra time is hugely appealing at 13/1.

There is much to admire in the Brazil side: their team spirit is incredible, and Scolari has managed to forge a club-like bond between his players. So far they have dealt with the colossal pressure on them, but in Colombia they may just meet a slightly better team.

In the first goalscorer market, Neymar is too short at 27/10, even though he is comfortably Brazil's most dangerous player. Fred is 9/2, and may prosper against a questionable Colombia centre-back pairing. James Rodriguez is 13/2, with Teofilo Gutierrez, Colombia's first choice striker in the absence of Falcao, is 15/2.

Top Bets: Colombia to qualify at 2/1, Colombia to win in extra time at 13/1

 

[CNOTES]

Argentina vs. Belgium

July 4, 2014


Argentina vs. Belgium

Date/Time: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Estadio Nacional de Brasilia
Location: Brasilia, Brazil

Sportsbook.ag Line:
Argentina +120, Belgium +250, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -149)

Two teams coming off grueling extra-time victories in the Round of 16 will collide in Saturday's quarterfinals when Argentina meets Belgium.

Argentina has won all four of its matches in this tournament, with all four victories coming by a one-goal margin. After edging Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 and escaping past Iran 1-0, the Maracana outlasted Nigeria 3-2 to clinch Group F. In Tuesday's Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland.

Belgium's World Cup fate has been the same as its opponent, winning all four of its matches, and all four of those victories coming by one goal. They edged Algeria 2-1 and posted back-to-back, 1-0 shutout wins over Russia and South Korea before holding off USA 2-1 in the knockout round. All six tournament goals for the Red Devils have come at least 70 minutes into each match with the half-dozen tallies coming at minutes 70, 78, 80, 88, 93 and 105. But these wins came with a price, as several of their key players were hurting on the road to their first quarterfinal berth since 1986.

Defender Thomas Vermaelen didn't play on Tuesday because of an injured hamstring, while right back Anthony Vanden Borre (cracked fibula) and defender Laurent Ciman (strained abductor) were unable to suit up either. Argentina opened the single-elimination tournament minus forward Sergio Aguero, who is doubtful to play in the quarterfinals because of a thigh injury.

Forward Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. The other two tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria. Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% versus Nigeria and 61% of the time against the Swiss.

The Maracana also fired 29 shots in their last match with 22 going on goal (76%), giving them 47 total shots with 35 on net (75%) in the past two matches combined. For the tournament, Argentina has 77 shots, with 49 on goal (64%). After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 35 corner kicks over the past three contests, including 13 versus Switzerland. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with just one offsides call, and 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo) in group play.

However, in the Round of 16, they were whistled for a whopping 19 fouls versus the Swiss, including three yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo is not allowed to play on Saturday because of his two bookings. Argentina needs to stay disciplined because Belgium is likely to employ a defense-heavy game plan on Saturday.

Belgium has a pedestrian six goals in four World Cup matches, with four of those coming from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forwards Divock Origi and Romelu Lukaku), which shows the team's incredible depth. Starting defender Jan Vertonghen recorded the lone tally versus South Korea at the 78th minute to give his team its third straight win in the tournament, and it was midfielder Kevin De Bruyne scoring first against the Americans at the 93rd minute in the Round of 16 before assisting on Lukaku's tally 12 minutes later. Lukaku, whose underwhelming performance in group play led to his benching on Tuesday, was also instrumental in creating De Bruyne's tally, as his size (221 pounds), strength and quickness overmatched the U.S. defenders.

Belgium completely dominated the Americans in that victory, outshooting them 38-14 (27-9 in shots on goal) and producing a corner-kick advantage of 19 to 4. For the tournament, the Red Devils have 81 total shots, including 55 on goal (68%). Belgium held a possession advantage in each of their first two games, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia, but possessed the ball for only 49% and 47% of the time in their most recent two matches. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 72 fouls and five yellow cards issued to midfielders Moussa Dembele and Axel Witsel, and defensemen Vincent Kompany, Toby Alderweireld and Vertonghen.

But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only two goals allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box, and a 107th-minute tally by the Americans in a match they led by two goals at the time. Red Devils goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has shown that he is clearly one of the better netminders in the world, making five saves in the win over USA. Belgium's top-notch defense could give Argentina a lot of trouble, just like Switzerland did.

 

[CNOTES]

Argentina vs. Belgium

July 4, 2014


Argentina vs. Belgium

Date/Time: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Estadio Nacional de Brasilia
Location: Brasilia, Brazil

Sportsbook.ag Line:
Argentina +120, Belgium +250, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -149)

Two teams coming off grueling extra-time victories in the Round of 16 will collide in Saturday's quarterfinals when Argentina meets Belgium.

Argentina has won all four of its matches in this tournament, with all four victories coming by a one-goal margin. After edging Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 and escaping past Iran 1-0, the Maracana outlasted Nigeria 3-2 to clinch Group F. In Tuesday's Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland.

Belgium's World Cup fate has been the same as its opponent, winning all four of its matches, and all four of those victories coming by one goal. They edged Algeria 2-1 and posted back-to-back, 1-0 shutout wins over Russia and South Korea before holding off USA 2-1 in the knockout round. All six tournament goals for the Red Devils have come at least 70 minutes into each match with the half-dozen tallies coming at minutes 70, 78, 80, 88, 93 and 105. But these wins came with a price, as several of their key players were hurting on the road to their first quarterfinal berth since 1986.

Defender Thomas Vermaelen didn't play on Tuesday because of an injured hamstring, while right back Anthony Vanden Borre (cracked fibula) and defender Laurent Ciman (strained abductor) were unable to suit up either. Argentina opened the single-elimination tournament minus forward Sergio Aguero, who is doubtful to play in the quarterfinals because of a thigh injury.

Forward Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. The other two tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria. Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% versus Nigeria and 61% of the time against the Swiss.

The Maracana also fired 29 shots in their last match with 22 going on goal (76%), giving them 47 total shots with 35 on net (75%) in the past two matches combined. For the tournament, Argentina has 77 shots, with 49 on goal (64%). After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 35 corner kicks over the past three contests, including 13 versus Switzerland. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with just one offsides call, and 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo) in group play.

However, in the Round of 16, they were whistled for a whopping 19 fouls versus the Swiss, including three yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo is not allowed to play on Saturday because of his two bookings. Argentina needs to stay disciplined because Belgium is likely to employ a defense-heavy game plan on Saturday.

Belgium has a pedestrian six goals in four World Cup matches, with four of those coming from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forwards Divock Origi and Romelu Lukaku), which shows the team's incredible depth. Starting defender Jan Vertonghen recorded the lone tally versus South Korea at the 78th minute to give his team its third straight win in the tournament, and it was midfielder Kevin De Bruyne scoring first against the Americans at the 93rd minute in the Round of 16 before assisting on Lukaku's tally 12 minutes later. Lukaku, whose underwhelming performance in group play led to his benching on Tuesday, was also instrumental in creating De Bruyne's tally, as his size (221 pounds), strength and quickness overmatched the U.S. defenders.

Belgium completely dominated the Americans in that victory, outshooting them 38-14 (27-9 in shots on goal) and producing a corner-kick advantage of 19 to 4. For the tournament, the Red Devils have 81 total shots, including 55 on goal (68%). Belgium held a possession advantage in each of their first two games, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia, but possessed the ball for only 49% and 47% of the time in their most recent two matches. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 72 fouls and five yellow cards issued to midfielders Moussa Dembele and Axel Witsel, and defensemen Vincent Kompany, Toby Alderweireld and Vertonghen.

But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only two goals allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box, and a 107th-minute tally by the Americans in a match they led by two goals at the time. Red Devils goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has shown that he is clearly one of the better netminders in the world, making five saves in the win over USA. Belgium's top-notch defense could give Argentina a lot of trouble, just like Switzerland did.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's WCup Tips

July 4, 2014

Belgium vs. Argentina (ABC 12:00 p.m. ET)

The second pair of quarterfinals take place on Saturday, and two more excellent matches are anticipates. Argentina are the favourites to qualify for the final from this half of the draw, but can someone else cause a surprise?

First up Argentina face Belgium in Brasilia. Both teams put in unconvincing performances in their last 16 matches, before coming through after extra time. That half an hour of football will have had an effect on both teams, and the temperature in Brasilia, while nothing on what we have seen in the far north of the country, will be high. It could lead to a rather slow, patient game with few goals.

Argentina were dreadful for much of their game against Switzerland. There was no cohesion to the team, and the Swiss could well have nicked it. Angel Di Maria scored the 118th minute winner, but the Real Madrid man, having ended the season so well, has been completely off the pace at this World Cup, which has been a major source of Argentina’s problems. The squad does not have quite the depth in quality of some others, and so only one enforced change will be made: left-back Marcos Rojo is suspended, so left-footed centre-back José Maria Basanta looks set to fill in.

Belgium have somehow won all four games at this World Cup (admittedly against four fairly average opponents), but there has been little from their performances to suggest that they are capable of winning the World Cup. Having crashed from 500/1 in 2010 to going off at 13/1 to win the World Cup, there is a sense that Belgium have become overhyped. Nonetheless, they are still here and deserve credit.

Argentina are the 23/20 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, and this looks a price to be piled into. The vast numbers of Argentines pouring into Brazil will almost make the match a home game for Alejandro Sabella’s side. The importance of having the crowd behind you was emphasised hugely in Brazil’s win over Colombia. Like Brazil, Argentina seem to thrive under pressure and have a way of getting the job done when they’re not playing well. A draw is 11/5 with Belgium 27/10 to win inside 90 minutes. The ‘To Qualify’ market has Argentina at 5/9 and Belgium 157/100.

Bookies are expecting a low-scoring game: over 2.5 goals is 29/20 with the under option a 61/100 shot. In the first goalscorer market Lionel Messi leads the way at 14/5 and, for once, this may not be a bad price on him breaking the deadlock.

Top Bet: Argentina to win at 23/20

Costa Rica vs. Netherlands (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The last quarterfinal, and the fifth last game of the whole World Cup, sees Netherlands play Costa Rica at the Fonte Nova in Salvador. Costa Rica are the surprise packages of the World Cup, but it is a 5/22 shot that their great journey will come to an end tonight against Holland, the only team left to have won all their games so far. Los Ticos played for over an hour against Greece with 10 men before winning on penalties.

The Dutch were five minutes from going out of the World Cup, before an extraordinary turnaround of goals in the 88th and 90th minutes put them through and sent Mexico home. The draw has opened out nicely for Louis van Gaal’s side - it’s not often you get to play a side as weak on paper as Costa Rica in a World Cup quarter-final.

Nigel De Jong is out of the World Cup with a groin strain, and so the impressive and versatile Daley Blind will step into defensive midfield, with Bruno Martins Indi playing on the left. Either that or Leroy Fer will come in as a straight swap. For Costa Rica, Oscar Duarte is suspended, and he will have to be wary of tiredness creeping into members of his squad after going the full distance against Greece.

I feel Costa Rica may have been unfairly written off here. While Arjen Robben is truly exceptional, this Dutch team looks pretty ordinary otherwise. Costa Rica managed to top the ‘group of death’, and the gritty win over Greece showed their mental strength. They have possibly the goalkeeper of the tournament in Keylor Navas, a defence that has conceded just twice in four matches, and a quick, dangerous forward in Joel Campbell. They are 6/1 to win in normal time and 7/2 to qualify. Holland are 1/2 to win, and a draw in 90 minutes is priced up at 63/20.

Holland have improved steadily throughout games, and Costa Rica will tire. As this happens, Robben’s influence will grow and, in the end, I expect the Oranje to get through. It may be worth getting on the half-time draw at 11/10. Both these sides played out exceptionally dull first halves in their last 16 ties, and Costa Rica have the ability to frustrate their opponents.

Top Bet: Draw at half-time at 11/10

 

[CNOTES]

Neymar to miss rest of World Cup

July 4, 2014


FORTALEZA, Brazil (AP) - Neymar will miss the rest of the World Cup after fracturing a vertebra during the team's quarterfinal win over Colombia, the team's doctor said Friday.

Neymar was kneed in the back by Colombia defender Juan Camilo Zuniga late in the second half of Brazil's 2-1 win, and was in tears when he was carried off the field on a stretcher.

He was taken to a private clinic for tests and team doctor Rodrigo Lasmar said the star striker had fractured his third vertebra.

''He will not be in condition to play, he will need a few weeks to be fit again,'' Lasmar said. ''He is very, very sad.''

Lasmar said Neymar will not have to undergo surgery and is not expected to remain hospitalized.

The 22-year-old forward is Brazil's biggest star and had scored four goals for the team so far in his first World Cup.

Brazil plays Germany in the semifinals on Tuesday in Belo Horizonte.

Neymar was hurt in the 86th minute at the Arena Castelao in Fortaleza, falling to the ground in pain after Zuniga jumped into him from behind, putting his knee into the Brazilian's lower back. Teammate Marcelo quickly called for medical assistance when he saw Neymar writhing in pain. Neymar stayed face down until team doctors arrived and put him on a stretcher to carry him off.

Brazil teammate Hulk said Neymar needed more protection from the referees after being repeatedly targeted by opponents.

''Every time is like this, players always come after Neymar, the referees need to do more to keep this from happening,'' Hulk said.

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff sent her support to Neymar.

''Along with the rest of Brazil, I'm hoping for the recovery of our greatest player,'' she said on her Twitter account, before he was ruled out of the tournament.

 

[CNOTES]

Costa Rica coach learned from Dutch master

July 3, 2014


RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) - At this point in the World Cup, the Dutch know plenty about Costa Rica - once one of the surprise packages of the tournament. What they may not have heard is that Costa Rica's Jorge Luis Pinto learned his coaching from the Dutchman who invented `total football.'

Pinto, a well-traveled Colombian, studied at the University of Cologne early in the 1980s when Dutch coach Rinus Michels was coaching the city's Bundesliga club.

''In those years I spent my time watching him training and talking to him,'' Pinto said. ''When I didn't have classes, I went to see the club practice. I saw many things and learned a lot.''

Michels was a good teacher - a few years later he would lead the Netherlands to its one and only international title, the 1988 European Championship, having pioneered the `total football' approach - where players can change their positions during a game.

Now Pinto aims to stop the Dutch taking another step toward their first world title when his Costa Rica team meets the Netherlands on Saturday in the quarterfinals at Salvador's Arena Fonte Nova.

It is not only Pinto who knows the Dutch game well. Bryan Ruiz had a successful spell with FC Twente before joining Fulham and now plays at PSV Eindhoven alongside likely Netherlands starter Georginio Wijnaldum and super-sub Memphis Depay.

Ruiz said he has shared what he knows about the Dutch players with his coach.

''Pinto asked me about it and I provided a bit of analysis of the ones I know,'' he said Thursday.

''I haven't had any contact with Memphis or Georginio,'' he added. ''Of course, the day of the match, we will greet each other, chat a bit and then get focused.''

Ruiz has teamed up with a strong, fast-paced striker in Joel Campbell, propelling Costa Rica to the surprise top spot in a Group D that also included England, Italy and Uruguay. Pinto's team also has a miserly defense that has conceded just two goals in the tournament so far.

''Costa Rica has a very good team,'' in-form Dutch forward Arjen Robben said. ''I think before not a lot of people would have expected them to go through to the next round but I think they are a very strong team and it's going to be another very difficult game for us where we have to give everything to go through to the semi-finals.''

Not surprisingly, Costa Rica will be attempting to shut down the Dutch striking partnership of Robben and Robin van Persie, who are looking to get back on the scoring sheet after combining for six goals in their team's first two matches but failing to find the net since.

''We just can't afford to give them any room to maneuver,'' midfielder Celso Borges said. ''They can make you pay if they get an opening.''

The winner in Salvador goes on to a semifinal against either Belgium or Argentina in Sao Paulo on July 9.

Costa Rica will be without defender Oscar Duarte, who was sent off in the 66th minute of the penalty shootout victory over Greece. Goalkeeper Keylor Navas skipped training on Wednesday with a sore shoulder, but he has been declared fit to play.

The lengthening Dutch injury list is creating problems for coach Louis van Gaal, who is fast running out of fit midfielders.

AC Milan strongman Nigel de Jong may have played his last World Cup match in Brazil after tearing a groin muscle early in the second-round defeat of Mexico. Leroy Fer also is in doubt with a hamstring injury he picked up in training the day after scoring the crucial opening goal in the Netherlands 2-0 defeat of Chile.

Van Gaal could push left back Daley Blind from defense to midfield or opt for Feyenoord's Jordie Clasie, who has yet to play in Brazil and has only eight caps to his name.

Van Gaal's most experienced midfielder, Wesley Sneijder, appears to be running into form at just the right time.

The team's top scorer in South Africa four years ago broke his Brazil duck against Mexico with a sizzling drive in the 88th minute, after substitute Klaas Jan Huntelaar had headed the ball back. Substitute Huntelaar then calmly slotted home a stoppage time penalty, but he said the assist for Sneijder was his most important touch.

''That moment was so intense,'' he told Dutch website Nu.nl. ''It was an explosion of joy and adrenaline that gave us the feeling we could force a result in the regular 90 minutes.''

 

[CNOTES]

Brazil vs. Germany

July 7, 2014


Brazil vs. Germany

Kickoff: Tuesday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Estadio Mineirao
Location: Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Sportsbook.ag Line:
Germany +150, Brazil +185, Tie after Regulation +230
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +150, Under -169)

Only four teams remain in the 2014 World Cup, with the first semifinal on Tuesday pitting soccer giants Brazil and Germany.

Host Brazil will be playing this match short-handed, with star forward Neymar suffering a fractured vertebra in the quarterfinal win, while team captain Thiago Silva is suspended due to picking up his second yellow card in a 2-1 victory versus Colombia that put the Selecao into the semifinal round for the first time since 2002. Germany reached its fourth straight semifinal, and 10th such appearance in the past 13 World Cups, by knocking off France 1-0. This was the third straight one-goal victory for the Germans. Brazil holds a 5-2-2 advantage in the past nine meetings between these countries, which include the Selecao's 2-0 victory over the Germans in the 2002 World Cup. However, Germany topped Brazil 3-2 when they last met in a friendly in August 2011. Although Brazil will be missing two key starters on Tuesday, they are undefeated in 41 straight matches on home soil, and manager Luiz Felipe Scolari has never lost a World Cup match while leading the Selecao.

Brazil is coming off another harder-than-expected win, as a Thiago Silva's goal seven minutes in and David Luiz's top-corner rocket off a free kick held up in a 2-1 victory. During that match, 54 fouls were committed, including a tournament-high 31 fouls by Brazil. Silva and goalkeeper Julio Cesar were both given yellow cards, with Cesar quite fortunate he didn't pick up a red card when he took out Colombian star James Rodriguez in the box that resulted in a penalty kick goal. Against Colombia, the Selecao held only a slight edge in total shots (12-11), shots on goal (6-5) and possession (51% to 49%). Brazil nearly fell to Chile to open the knockout round in a match where they committed 28 fouls and were booked for four yellow cards, but prevailed in penalty kicks when Chile's final attempt hit the post. Although the Selecao held a commanding 23-13 shot advantage (13-5 shots on goal) in that match, Chile out-possessed Brazil 51% to 49%. The Selecao will certainly miss injured Neymar, who is tied for second among all goal scorers in the World Cup with four of his team's 10 tallies. David Luiz has two goals, but no other teammate has more than one tally in the tournament, with these other four goals coming from Oscar, Fred, Fernando Luiz Roza and Thiago Silva.

Germany started off its World Cup with 4-0 victory against Portugal, but have not really played up to their capabilities since that lopsided result. After a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana, they barely topped the United States by a 1-0 result, and failed to score in regulation during a 2-1 win over Algeria in the Round of 16. A Mats Hummels header off a Toni Kroos free kick at the 12-minute mark was the club's loan goal in its 1-0 quarterfinal victory over Les Blues. That was the second goal for Hummels in the tournament, putting him second on the club behind Thomas Muller, who has four of the 10 Germany goals in this tournament. He now has nine goals in 10 career World Cup matches. Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Brazil legend Ronaldo for the all-time record. In the quarterfinal win over France, possession was split equally at 50% apiece, which marks the fifth straight match that the Germans have not lost possession. They held possession advantages of 59% versus Portugal, 54% facing Ghana and a whopping 63% possession time versus both USA and Algeria. For the tournament, they hold a 27-20 edge in corner kicks on their opponents, and in the past three contests, Germany has fired 50 total shots, with 37 going on goal (74%). The players tasked with feeding the goal-scoring stars are midfielders Kroos and Lukas Podolski, who has 47 goals in his 116 caps, but did not play in the quarterfinals. Germany has allowed a mere three goals over five matches in this tournament thanks to the stellar play of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, who is the much more highly-regarded keeper in this match. The Germans have also completed 500 more successful passes than any other World Cup team and over 1,000 more than Brazil, and will need to control possession in this match to beat a more physical Selecao club.

Check out more Game and Player Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Brazil vs. Germany Propositions

First Goal Scorer

Thomas Muller 9/2
Miroslav Klose 11/2
Fred 11/2
Hulk 13/2
Andre Schurrle 13/2
Mario Gotze 13/2
Jo 13/2
Lukas Podolski 15/2
Oscar 8/1
Mesut Ozil 17/2
Hernanes 9/1
Bernard 9/1
Paulinho 10/1
Toni Kroos 11/1
Bastian Schweinsteiger 11/1
Julian Draxler 11/1
Willian 12/1
Mats Hummels 14/1
Ramires 14/1
Fernandinho 14/1
Kevin Grosskreutz 16/1
David Luiz 16/1
Mathias Ginter 18/1
Sami Khedira 18/1
Christoph Kramer 18/1
Marcelo 20/1
Daniel Alves 22/1
Philipp Lahm 23/1
Erik Durm 25/1
Per Mertesacker 28/1
Dante 28/1
Maicon 28/1
Benedikt Howedes 28/1
Luiz Gustavo 28/1
Jerome Boateng 33/1
Henrique 33/1
Maxwell 36/1

To Score Anytime

 

[CNOTES]

Di Maria ruled out of World Cup semis

July 6, 2014


BELO HORIZONTE, Brazil (AP) - Argentina midfielder Angel Di Maria has been ruled out of the World Cup semifinal against the Netherlands with a thigh injury while striker Sergio Aguero has been declared fit to play after recovering from a similar problem.

Di Maria limped off the field in the first half of Argentina's quarterfinal win over Belgium after straining a muscle in the back of his right thigh.

Team doctor Daniel Martinez on Sunday said tests showed it was a ''first-degree'' strain - the mildest kind but added that Di Maria wouldn't be fit to play in Wednesday's semifinal.

Martinez said Aguero, who sustained a similar injury 10 days ago, had recovered in an ''excellent'' way.

Losing Di Maria is a big blow for Argentina as it prepares for its first World Cup semifinal since 1990. Besides Lionel Messi, he's been the team's most influential player in Brazil.

Di Maria scored the extra-time winner against Switzerland in the second round and set up Gonzalo Higuain's winning goal in the first half against Belgium on Saturday.

''He's a key player in this project,'' Higuain said of Di Maria.

The last time Argentina reached the semifinal stage in the World Cup was 24 years ago in Italy, when it made it to the final but lost 1-0 to West Germany.

Coach Alejandro Sabella said being among the final four was the ''minimum'' that Argentina expected out of this World Cup after being eliminated in the quarterfinals in two consecutive tournaments.

Sabella made two key changes to the lineup against Belgium, fielding Manchester City defender Martin Demichelis for the first time in Brazil, and having Lucas Biglia replace Fernando Gago in the midfield.

''You always hope to play,'' Demichelis said. ''I was showing a lot of heart in practice and tried to get to the place where I would get called up.''

The moves bolstered Argentina's defense, with Biglia and Javier Mascherano dropping back to help protect the early lead.

With left back Marcos Rojo returning from suspension Argentina's defense should be in even better shape for the semifinal. However, the attack is bound to suffer without Di Maria.

 

[CNOTES]

Without Neymar, Brazil takes on Germany

July 6, 2014


BELO HORIZONTE, Brazil (AP) - Even without Neymar, Brazil's show must go on.

The World Cup hosts, now forced to play without their injured superstar, will face Germany on Tuesday for a spot in next weekend's final.

Neymar fractured a vertebra in his lower back in Brazil's quarterfinal win over Colombia, ruling him out for the rest of the tournament. But despite having to stay off the field, the 22-year-old striker with the dyed-blonde fauxhawk is still expecting Brazil to win its sixth World Cup title.

''I won't be able to fulfill the dream of playing in a World Cup final,'' Neymar said, ''but I'm sure they will win this one, they will become champions, and I will be there with them, and all of Brazil will be celebrating together.''

Along with Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar was among the biggest stars at the World Cup. And in Brazil, the man in the yellow No. 10 jersey is something of a megastar, with his face plastered on billboards around the country and constantly shown in TV.

His play on the field lived up to the hype, with four goals in the group stage. He continued to make an impact, albeit without any more goals, in the knockout games until he took a knee in the back late in the match against Colombia.

The question for Brazil now, however, is who will step up to replace Neymar as the focal point of the attack? The much-maligned Fred has been largely ineffective so far, while Hulk has also failed to score for the hosts.

And making things tougher on Brazil is the suspension of captain Thiago Silva. The Paris Saint-Germain defender scored the first goal in the quarterfinal victory, but later picked up a yellow card for foolishly impeding the Colombia goalkeeper. Because it was his second yellow of the tournament, he must sit out the match against Germany.

Brazil has played Germany only once at the World Cup, winning 2-0 in the 2002 final. But the Germans, who will be making their 13th appearance in the semifinals, have reached the final seven times and won three of them.

At this year's tournament, Germany coach Joachim Loew has experimented with the defense, moving captain Philipp Lahm into the midfield and then back to his usual right back position.

With Lahm in the backline and Per Mertesacker on the bench in the quarterfinal win over France, the Germans looked as good as they have since routing Portugal in their group opener.

''The team is improving from match to match,'' said Loew, who has led Germany to the semifinals in every major tournament since taking over eight years ago.

The winner of Tuesday's match will face either Argentina or the Netherlands in next Sunday's final. And if it's Neymar's teammates that prevail, the match at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro will be sadly missing the country's favorite son.

''I'm certain,'' Neymar said, ''that my teammates will do whatever possible so I can fulfill my dream of being a champion.''

 

[CNOTES]

Neymar denies attempt to play in final

July 7, 2014


BELO HORIZONTE, Brazil (AP) - Neymar and the Brazilian football confederation have denied media reports that the striker could undergo special treatment on his fractured vertebra to try to play in the World Cup final if Brazil makes it that far.

Both Neymar and the confederation released statements late Sunday saying that nothing that could risk the player's health or career would be attempted to allow him to play in the final if Brazil advances past Germany in Tuesday's semifinals.

The statements came after the Brazilian media quoted doctors from the Brazlian club Santos as saying there was a chance Neymar could play in the final by with alternative treatments and painkiller injections.

The confederation said rushed measures would ''put in risk his future life as an athlete.'

 

[CNOTES]

Messi and Robben face off in semifinal

July 7, 2014



RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) - The World Cup's best dribblers - Lionel Messi and Arjen Robben - face off when Argentina and Netherlands meet in the semifinals.

In Brazil, Robben has been quick, Messi has been quicksilver.

On Wednesday in Sao Paulo, either one could turn the semifinal with a dazzling turn of pace or a weaving run to propel his team to the final.

''We have to cut the supply line to Messi,'' Dutch defender Bruno Martins Indi told Dutch website Nu.nl.

The Barcelona star led Argentina through the group stage with four goals. He has also made 180 passes in his five matches so far.

The Dutch have shared the goal-scoring duties more evenly - Robben and Robin van Persie each have three, Memphis Depay has two of the team's total of 12 - but the Bayern Munich winger's scintillating sprints with the ball have often been the highlights of Oranje matches.

''We know that we will play against one of the best teams when it comes to counterattacks because of the speed of their men up front,'' Argentina midfielder Javier Mascherano said. ''So we have to take precautions to not give them the possibility to counterattack, to always be well positioned, to not lose balls unnecessarily in areas where there's a lot of risk.''

After scoring 10 times in group play, the Netherlands has managed only two in its two knock-out matches and the Dutch will be hoping captain Van Persie regains his touch in front of goal. He looked off the pace and missed an easy chance near the end of regulation time in the quarterfinal against Costa Rica.

The Netherlands will again be without their powerful midfield controller Nigel de Jong, who has a torn groin muscle. A possible replacement, Leroy Fer, is recovering from a hamstring injury and it is not clear if he will be fit for Wednesday's semifinal at the Itaquerao Stadium.

Argentina will be without Real Madrid winger Angel Di Maria, who limped off in the first half of his country's quarterfinal win over Belgium with a right thigh injury, but striker Sergio Aguero has been declared fit after recovering from a similar problem.

Di Maria scored the extra-time winner against Switzerland in the second round and set up Gonzalo Higuain's winning goal in the first half against Belgium on Saturday.

''He's a good player, but we look at the whole team, not one player,'' Netherlands goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen said. ''We're going to watch ... how Argentina plays. We're going to make our plan to beat Argentina.''

Whether that plan again could involve Cillessen being substituted a minute before a penalty shootout and replaced with the more physically imposing Tim Krul - as happened against Costa Rica - remains to be seen.

The move by tactical mastermind Louis van Gaal was the World Cup's most surprising substitution and one of its most effective as Krul stopped two penalties.

''We are ready for everything,'' Krul said. ''Hopefully, we don't need it against Argentina and we can do the job in 90 minutes.''

The two sides have a long World Cup history, including one of the Netherlands' most heart-breaking losses, in the 1978 final when Rob Rensenbrink's shot hit the post shortly before full time with the scores level at 1-1. Argentina went on to win 3-1 in extra time.

In 1998, the Dutch led by Guus Hiddink got a measure of revenge when Dennis Bergkamp's memorable goal knocked Argentina out in the quarterfinals in France.

Cillessen said beating Argentina in Sao Paulo would only be a step on the way to making amends for the 1978 final - one of three the Netherlands has lost, earning the Dutch the title of the best team never to win the World Cup.

''It would be revenge if we win the World Cup,'' Cillessen said. ''But we have to wait for that. It's not a final. It's a semi.''

 

[CNOTES]

2014 World Cup Results


Round of 16

Saturday, June 28

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

Brazil vs. Chile 1-1 Draw (+375) Under (2.5)

Colombia (-135) vs. Uruguay 2-0 Favorite Under (2.5)


Sunday, June 29

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

Netherlands (+115) vs. Mexico 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)

Costa Rica vs. Greece 1-1 Draw (+210) Push (2)


Monday, June 30

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

France (-250) vs. Nigeria 2-0 Favorite Under (2.5)

Germany vs. Algeria 0-0 Draw (+500) Under (3)


Tuesday, July 1

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

Argentina vs. Switzerland 0-0 Draw (+315) Under (2.5)

Belgium vs. United States 0-0 Draw (+250) Under (2.5)


Quarterfinals

Friday, July 4

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

France vs. Germany (+175) 1-0 Favorite Under (2.5)

Brazil (-130) vs. Colombia 2-1 Favorite Over (2.5)


Saturday, July 5

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

Argentina (+100) vs. Belgium 1-0 Favorite Under (2.5)

Netherlands vs. Costa Rica 0-0 Draw (+315) Under (2.5)


Semifinals

Tuesday, July 8

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

Germany vs. Brazil - - -


Wednesday, July 9

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

TBA - - -


Third Place & Championship

Saturday, June 12

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

TBA - - -


Sunday, July 13

Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

TBA - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Netherlands vs. Brazil

July 11, 2014

Netherlands vs. Brazil (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The Third place play-off is something of an anomaly. No other competition, not the Champions League, the European Championship or Copa America has a third place play-off. But the World Cup does. Sometimes these matches can be celebratory affairs - in 2002, the co-hosts South Korea played out a highly entertaining 3-2 defeat to Turkey. Neither side would have dreamed of reaching the semi-finals before the tournament, so for them it was a celebratory occasion.

It will not be so here. This game, at the Estadio Nacional in Brasília, will have the atmosphere of a funeral. Brazil were humbled 7-1 by Germany in their semi-final. It was the most extraordinary result of my lifetime, and era-defining game. The devastation was such that many who played for the home side that day may never represent Brazil again. They face Holland, who were not lucky second time around after another 0-0 that went to penalties. They got past Costa Rica, but missed two of their four kicks against Argentina, sending Louis van Gaal’s side out.

The most interesting thing about this game will be Scolari’s team selection in his last match as coach, and how the players respond after the some of the worst few days of their lives. Some players, particularly, Fred, Marcelo, Fernandinho, Hulk and Maicon, can surely not play on Saturday, given the criticism they have been subjected to since the defeat.

It will be interesting to see whether David Luiz partners Thiago Silva. Luiz took the captaincy in Silva’s absence in Belo Horizonte, and endured 90 atrocious minutes. Though Marcelo was Brazil’s worst player that night, it was David Luiz whose reputation took the biggest battering. Everything his critics have levelled at him was proven catastrophically right.

Ramires will surely come in, after a respectable second-half performance, while there may also be first starts of the tournament for Jefferson, Henrique, Maxwell, Willian, Hernanes and Jô.

Although he has recently said that ‘We are going to do everything to finish third…We want to leave the World Cup unbeaten, something a Dutch side has never achieved’, Louis van Gaal gave away his attitude to the Third place play-off somewhat by saying it ‘should never be played’. This will surely affect the extent to which his team exert themselves in Brasilia. While many third place games are high-scoring, we could see a low-scorer here.

On the one hand, there is a team at its lowest ebb, humiliated at home and just wanting the nightmare to end. Without Neymar, as we saw against Germany, Brazil just have desperately little going forward, and Thiago Silva’s return will improve the back-line. Holland have only scored once in open play since the group stages, and they have little invention in midfield with Wesley Sneijder having a quiet tournament. Arjen Robben is the man who makes things happen for the Oranje, who also have a solid defence. Ron Vlaar, the man who missed the second crucial penalty in the quarter-final, has been superb. So I recommend taking under 2.5 goals at 29/20 with Sportsbook.ag. This will not be the carefree Third-place play-off of previous years.

In the match winner market, Brazil are rather surprisingly the 23/20 favourites, with Holland 41/20 and a draw 14/5. The draw looks the best option here, but it seems surprising that Brazil are so short. While it is foolish to overreact to one result, that price is not too different from what bookies would have been laying without seeing Brazil capitulate against Germany. One performance does not mean everything, but Brazil were just so bad, and the players were so dejected, that it is bound to have an effect here.

In the first goalscorer market, I have been constantly tipping up Arjen Robben, and again here I like the look of 11/2 about the Bayern Munich man breaking the deadlock. This is particularly good if Marcelo plays. Most of Germany’s early goals came down Marcelo’s side, which is where Robben plays. Jô looks certain to lead the line for Brazil, after poor Fred’s barracking at the hands of the Mineirão crowd on Tuesday. He has 5 goals in 19 for Brazil, a record that is more impressive than it looks given his usual role as a substitute. He is 7/1.

Top Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 29/20