NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 41)
Rams’ red-zone defense vs. Redskins’ new kicker
Kicker turnover is nothing new in the early weeks of the NFL season. Teams are quick to drop any leg that underperforms, and the Redskins did just that with the release of Kai Forbath this week. Forbath was axed for being a dud on kickoffs, leaving Washington to bring in Dustin Hopkins as the team’s kicker heading into Week 2. Hopkins, who was practicing his form in public parks just last week after being dropped by the Saints, has the leg strength for kickoff but how will he fare on field goals?
He was a stud at Florida State but his pro career has been marred by injuries and underachievement. This preseason, he was 3 for 5 on FG attempts but has never played in a regular season game and doesn’t have much room to work on timing with his long snapper and holder, who had been with Forbath since 2012. Washington could find itself turning to Hopkins’ untested leg more than it would like in Week 2.
St. Louis’ defense doesn’t let opponents get inside the 20-yard line very often, allowing only 2.4 red zone attempts per game in 2014. Last week, the Rams kept Seattle out of the end zone in three of their four treks inside the twenty and forced the Seahawks to settle for three field goals. St. Louis forced opponents to kick 15 FG attempts of 40-plus yards last season, including seven of 50-plus, and have been known to block a FG from time to time.
Daily fantasy watch: St. Louis defense/special teams
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-2.5, 51)
Falcons’ follies against pass-catching RBs vs. Giants’ pass-catching RBs
After the clock management snafu in Dallas Sunday night, Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is preaching possession. New York, despite a chance to put the Cowboys away late, was owned in TOP in Week 1, holding on to the ball for less than 23 minutes. That's about as long as an episode of your favorite sitcom. The G-Men really never got their West Coast offense going and underutilized their running backs, especially when it came to the passing game.
New York has two of the better pass-catching RBs in the NFL with Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen combining for 673 receiving yards in 2014. Vereen was targeted five times, catching four of those passes for a team-high 46 yards in Week 1. Jennings was thrown to once for an incompletion. If Coughlin and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo want to chew up the clock, finding the RBs in the flat will be a huge part of that game plan.
Atlanta had its hands full with pass-catching running backs against the Eagles Monday night. The Falcons gave up 111 yards on 14 catches – almost eight yards per reception – and a touchdown to Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, and DeMarco Murray. That was one third of Philadelphia’s total passing yards. Getting burned by versatile backs is nothing new to Atlanta, even if head coach Dan Quinn is now calling the shots for the stop unit. The Falcons allowed 785 yards receiving to RBs last season, which ranks fifth most in the NFL.
Daily fantasy watch: RB Shane Vereen, RB Rashad Jennings
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 55)
Cowboys’ short secondary vs. Eagles’ taller targets
Even if top corner Orlando Scandrick didn’t shred his knee this offseason, the Cowboys would still be in trouble versus the Eagles in Week 2. While everyone focuses on Murray’s first game against his former club, this game will likely be decided in the air. Dallas’ secondary could come up short – literally and figuratively – Sunday, having a tough time measuring up to Philadelphia’s taller receivers.
Brandon Carr stands 6-foot while rookie CB Byron Jones goes 6-foot-1. Then Dallas shrinks with Morris Claiborne (5-foot-11) and Tyler Patmon (5-foot-10), who will draw the short straw when it comes to covering Eagles WR Jordan Matthews, who runs a cool 6-foot-3 and adds to that with freakish athletic ability. The Cowboys have been small in the secondary for some time and have been bullied by bigger pass catchers in the past, like Detroit.
Behind Matthews, Philadelphia rolls out a receiving corps that could double as a solid basketball lineup. Riley Cooper stands 6-foot-4, rookie Nelson Agholor is 6-foot-1, Miles Austin is 6-foot-2, and TEs Brent Celek and Zach Ertz run 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-5 respectively. Hell, even Murray and Mathews are 6-foot. In fact, the only two receiving options under six feet are Sproles (5-foot-6) and Josh Huff (5-foot-11). That’s a tall order for Dallas to topple.
Daily fantasy watch: QB Sam Bradford, WR Jordan Matthews, WR Riley Cooper, TE Zach Ertz
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 49)
Seahawks’ softening secondary vs. Packers' deep pass attack
Can we dare say the “Legion of Boom” is no more? The Seahawks once-impenetrable secondary is a shell of its former self. Seattle has watched key members like Byron Maxwell walk away for big money while its most talented player, SS Kam Chancellor, collects dust during a contract holdout with the team. Even the brains behind the boom is gone, with Quinn taking the head coaching job in Atlanta. It would certainly seem like the Seahawks’ pass defense is ripping at the seams.
They allowed St. Louis to torch them for eight passing plays of 20 or more yards – most in Week 1 – and four of those were for 25-yards or more. To put that number into perspective, Seattle gave up just 14 passes of 25 yards or more in 2014… for the entire season. Enter the Packers, who may have lost some home run power when WR Jordy Nelson busted his knee this summer, but still have Aaron Rodgers slinging the pigskin. Green Bay put 34 passing plays of 25 or more on the board last year – fifth most – and had two in the opener against Chicago. Rodgers hit four passes of 20 or more yards and had a 34-yard pass interference call on the Bears in the fourth quarter.
James Jones blossomed in his return to the Cheeseheads but it was second-year WR Davante Adams who looks to be stepping into Nelson’s role as the deep threat. Randall Cobb, who was slowed by a sore shoulder, is another week healthier and will draw the attention of Seattle CB Richard Sherman in the slot – dragging the Seahawks' premier pass defender underneath and opening up the downfield threat for Rodgers.
