Friday's Tip Sheet
September 18, 2015
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals | 7:05 p.m. ET
For those who enjoy a real quality pitcher’s duel, you may want to tune into the action that’s on tap from Nationals Park this evening. Not only is it a meaningful game -- as is every Nationals contest the rest of the way while they try to inch closer to the Mets in the NL East -- but you’ll also be able to enjoy the fabulous work of two perennial NL Cy Young candidates. Nationals ace Max Scherzer (12-11, 2.91 ERA) certainly looked like he was the frontrunner for such honors throughout the first half of the year, in which he was 10-7 with a shiny 2.11 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, while compiling an outstanding 150/14 K/BB ratio in 132 innings of work. In the second half, though? He’s dropped off significantly, being just 2-4 over 11 starts with a 4.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. At the same time, Scherzer is coming off his best start of the second half, when he blanked the Marlins over eight terrific innings. The linesmakers might sense him returning to form and have tagged him with -150 odds despite his counterpart in the opener.
In turn, Marlins ace Jose Fernandez (5-0, 2.06 ERA) has some pretty tempting +130 underdog odds, which might be the biggest odds he ever draws, given his standing as one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers. It’s also intriguing considering Fernandez just kept the Nats off the scoreboard in his most recent outing last weekend, which also marked his return from his second stint on the disabled list. However, that also came at home Marlins Park, where the 23-year-old phenom has posted some pretty legendary numbers (16-0, 1.11 ERA, 0.87 WHIP in 25 home starts) throughout his still-young big-league career. On the road, in 19 career starts, Fernandez is just 5-8 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Plus, it’s unknown how long he’ll be allowed to pitch, after he was prematurely taken out in last Saturday night’s start. Regardless, the over/under is 6.5.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers | 7:05 p.m. ET
When the 2015 Major League Baseball schedule was released, many people figured that this late-season series between the division rival Royals and Tigers would be one of the more important ones on this second-to-last weekend of the campaign. Due to Detroit’s surprising fall, after entering the year with five consecutive AL Central division titles, that’s certainly not the case, although this series opener will be of great importance to Royals fans considering their major trade deadline acquisition Johnny Cueto (9-12, 3.47 ERA) is slated to take the hill, seeking to get back on track.
Over the past few seasons during his time with the Reds, Cueto has undoubtedly been one of the best pitchers in the game, even coming close to an NL Cy Young a year ago, but after an encouraging beginning to his stint with the Royals, Johnny Beisbol has struggled mightily. In fact, since going 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his first four starts with the club, Cueto has lost his last five assignments, while posting a 9.57 ERA and allowing eight home runs, including a career-high four his last time out. Fortunately for the former Cincinnati ace, he’s facing a very familiar opponent whom he’s had success against, as he’s faced the Tigers more than any other team in ’15. In four starts opposite Detroit, Cueto has registered a 2.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .208 opposing batting average across 27.1 innings. Even so, he carries the standard -110 odds in this one on the road.
Concerning his counterpart’s fall from grace over the past few weeks, Justin Verlander (3-8, 3.58 ERA) probably knows that feeling all too well. At one point a few years ago, Verlander was widely considered to be the best pitcher in all of baseball, but has regressed since then due to decreased velocity and injuries. Nonetheless, Verlander has exhibited that he can still be that dominant pitcher he once was, such as in August, when he put together a 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and .177 opposing batting average in five starts during the month, spanning 36 total innings. Verlander has somewhat carried that success over into September, in which he’s recorded two quality starts in three tries, which is why he’s getting respect from the linesmakers in attaining even odds. The over/under, meanwhile, is 8.5.
New York Yankees at New York Mets | 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
It’s been a breakthrough campaign for both New York baseball franchises this season, as the Yankees appear poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012, while the Mets are well on pace towards wrapping up their first postseason berth in almost a decade. As a result, this looks to be one of the most compelling Subway Series matchups since it was regularly installed during the regular season nearly 20 years ago.
It is the Yankees, though, who still have more to accomplish, being 3.5 games back of the first-place Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. Masahiro Tanaka (12-6, 3.40 ERA), arguably their best big-game pitcher, gets the ball in game one of this three-game set, looking to help Bronx Bombers gain some needed ground in the division. After an injury in May almost derailed his season, Tanaka has settled in very nicely while contributing his best work as of late. Over his last two starts, the 26-year-old right-hander has surrendered just a single run across 15 innings pitched, while compiling a terrific 17/1 K/BB ratio. Overall, he’s recorded seven quality starts in his last eight tries, and thus, he’s a -115 road favorite against the club’s crosstown rivals.
While the Yankees still have a lot of heavy lifting to do down the stretch, the Mets can mostly relax in the season’s final two weeks-and-change, owning an impressive eight-game lead over the Washington Nationals for first-place in the NL East. At the same time, they’ll want to avenge losing the first Subway Series of the year back in April, and have rookie Steven Matz (3-0, 1.88 ERA) to kick things off. Despite being limited to just four starts on the year, the 24-year-old southpaw has been nothing short of fabulous in his first taste of big league action, having allowed two runs or less in each of his assignments. He’s made two starts since returning from injury in the beginning of the month and has continued to shine, having surrendered only three combined runs across 10.1 innings. Interestingly, this will be Matz’ first time toeing the rubber at Citi Field since his Major League debut on June 28. Unsurprisingly, the over/under is 7.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 p.m. ET
On a three-game losing streak entering their weekend series at Chavez Ravine, the Pirates can almost forget about their chances of catching the first-place St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, and instead focus on staving off the fellow division rival Cubs for the top Wild Card berth, which would reward them with home-field advantage in the NL Wild Card Game.
It will be a tough task taking game one, however, considering they must deal with NL Cy Young hopeful Zack Greinke (17-3, 1.61 ERA), who continues to be on a roll. He enters tonight’s assignment having registered seven consecutive quality starts, and he’s a good bet to extend that streak at least one more, considering he’ll be working from the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium this evening. Overall, Greinke has been even better at home during his marvelous 2015 campaign, being 8-1 in 15 starts with a 1.41 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and .190 opposing batting average. In his past 12 home starts, he's allowed two runs or less, hence why he’s a heavy -210 favorite despite Pittsburgh’s standing as a legitimate contender.
The Pirates will counter with left-hander Jeff Locke (8-10, 4.43 ERA), whose split stats on the road don’t offer much optimism when matched up against Greinke’s amazing mastery at Dodger Stadium. Specifically, Locke is 4-6 in 13 starts away from PNC Park with an unpleasant 5.69 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while opponents have hit .295 off the southpaw when pitching on the road. The mercurial Locke may need a quality outing here if he wants to solidify a position on the postseason pitching staff. The linesmakers have predictably set the over/under at 6.5, and it’s worth noting that the over is 8-1-1 in Locke’s last 10 starts.
