Cnotes October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS (Trends current through September 28, 2014 - *MNF pending):

Minnesota is 5-10 vs. Green Bay since ’07 – Green Bay is 9-3-1 the last 13 as a favorite

Chicago is 6-11 as an underdog since ‘12– Carolina is 9-3-1 the last 13 at home

Cleveland is 5-9-1 the last 15 road games – Tennessee is 19-29-2 as a H/F since ‘04

St. Louis is 5-9 as an underdog since ’13 – Philadelphia is 4-9 the last 13 as a H/F

Atlanta is 3-10 the last 13 road games – NY Giants are 17-24-2 at home since ‘09

Tampa Bay is 14-10 at New Orleans since ’81– New Orleans is 9-19 as a DD fav since ‘87

Houston is 4-9 the last 13 road games – Dallas is 6-19 as a home favorite since ‘10

Buffalo is 6-16-1 as a R/D since ‘11– Detroit is 7-11 the last 18 as a home favorite

Baltimore is 1-8 vs. Indianapolis since ’04 – It is 7-11 the last 18 as a home favorite

Pittsburgh is 4-11 the last 15 vs. Jacksonville – Jacksonville is 7-17-1 as a H/D since ‘10

Arizona is 12-5 the last 17 as an underdog – Denver is 11-8-1 as a H/F since ‘12

Kansas City is 30-25* as a dog since ’09 – San Francisco is 18-10-1 at home since ‘11

NY Jets are 6-2 vs. San Diego since ’02 –San Diego is 23-29-1 as a favorite since ‘09

Cincinnati is 6-2-1 the last nine as an underdog – New England is 7-2 the last nine at home

Seattle is 10-15 as a R/F since ’06 – Washington is 21-25-2 as a home dog since ‘02

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, October 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 8:25 PM ET Green Bay -7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Green Bay - Over 47 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 47.5)

Rams’ defensive line vs. Eagles’ poor protection

The Rams’ vaunted defensive line knows it has to pick up the slack if the team is going keep its head above water. St. Louis, which boasts a talented front four featuring the likes of Robert Quinn (19 sacks last season), has been slowed by injuries (Chris Long) and has produced just one sack on the season. At this point last season, St. Louis already has nine of its total 53 sacks on the board.

The Rams catch a break in Week 5 with Philadelphia marching out a make shift offensive line coming off a tough loss to the Niners last Sunday. The Eagles protection has been plagued by injuries, leaving Chip Kelly to lean on some untested linemen. Quarterback Nick Foles has taken some nasty licks through four weeks of football despite being sacked only six times. Philadelphia does get tackle Lane Johnson back from suspension, but he’s nowhere near the shape the Eagles’ up-tempo offense demands.

San Francisco was able to claw its way back into Week 4’s game thanks to gumming up the works with its pressure and not giving the Eagles space to break plays or keep the chains moving on third downs - Philadelphia was just 5 for 13 on third down. If the Rams defensive line can find its form, Foles and the Eagles could be on their heels much of Sunday.


Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 47.5)

Ravens’ overrated run defense vs. Colts’ growing ground game

Baltimore currently sits with the seventh best run defense in the NFL, giving up only 82.5 yards on the ground per game. But digging into those defensive digits, we find that the Ravens may not be as tough against the run as advertised. They’ve played games against Cleveland and Carolina – two teams with issues in the run game – and then limited AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to short gains on the ground.

But did they? Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard rushed for just 48 yards versus Baltimore, but also caught six balls for an additional 62 yards in Week 1. Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell put up only 59 yards rushing versus the Ravens but tacked on another 48 yards on five receptions in Week 2. While those short passes are technically “passes” the yards after the catch might as well be coming off a toss.

Enter Indianapolis and a rushing attack that is quietly gaining momentum in the shadow of QB Andrew Luck and his massive production so far this year. Veteran Ahmad Bradshaw is undergoing a renaissance in Indy, posting 316 total yards – 134 of those on receptions along with four receiving TDs. That puts him just behind top-tier targets Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb and Antonio Brown and Julius Thomas, who all have five touchdown catches. What’s more, fellow RB Trent Richardson is showing flashes of brilliance, keeping defense honest when it comes to defending Luck.


Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)

Cardinals passive pass rush vs. Broncos’ QB Peyton Manning

Arizona has had one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL for some time now. A big part of that is the breakneck speed the Cardinals stop unit plays at and its ability to quickly close in on rival quarterbacks.

Arizona still plays at an accelerated pace but there is a major gap in the defense when it comes to the pass rush. It has only three sacks on the year – second lowest in the league – and just put one of its top pass rushers on the shelf (John Abraham on IR with a concussion) before he could even see action.

The Cardinals depend on that pressure to hurry the passer and create opportunities for a playmaking secondary, but without it, foes have all the time in the world to look downfield. And time is not something you want to give to Peyton Manning.

Pressure has been key any time Manning and the Broncos have fallen. The Seahawks were able to sack Manning three times in Week 3’s OT winner over Denver, and got No. 18 on his heels for the majority of Super Bowl XLVIII, posting one sack and picking off two passes. In the three losses before that, Manning was sacked and intercepted at least once, including a four-sack performance from the Colts in Week 7.


Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Pick, 46)

Bengals’ third-down defense vs. Patriots’ third-down offense

Has time caught up with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? The Patriots, once known as an unstoppable offensive machine, has trickled out just 20 points per game like an old man standing at the urinal. New England was shutout for most of its embarrassing Monday loss to Kansas City before managing two scores in the second half.

The Patriots are having issues keeping the chains moving and no mad-scientist system of Belichick’s can get them going. They were 2 for 9 on third downs Monday (only had nine third-down chances!), touching the football for just 23:33. They picked up a mere 13 first downs Monday and are averaging only 17.5 through four weeks. New England has converted on 36.21 percent of its third down snaps heading into this Week 5 matchup.

The chain gang had better bring the WD-40 to get the rust of the yard markers in Cincinnati. The Bengals are holding opponents to a 31.71 percent success rate on third downs – second lowest in the NFL – and had the bye week to fine tune that stop unit and watch what worked for the Chiefs Monday. Cincy tops the league in points allowed, budging for an average of 11 per game so far.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Bears (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)— Carolina allowed 75 points in losing last two games after 2-0 start; they were outrushed 391-109 in losses and haven’t forced a turnover yet, after forcing three in each of their two wins. Chicago won both its road games, is 0-2 at home; go figure; they had 446 yards in home loss to Packers last week, but Pack scored five TD, kicked two FGs, never punted. Panthers are 10-5-1 as a home favorite under Rivera, 1-1 this year. Bears lost battle for field position in all four games, by 4-4-8-24 yards; they're 6-10-1 as road dogs since '11, but 2-0 this season. NFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread out of division, 2-5 when favored. NFC North teams are 6-6, 4-4 as underdogs. Carolina coach Rivera was a LB for Bears in his playing days.

Browns (1-2) @ Titans (1-3)—Tennessee lost last three games by 16-26-24 points after upsetting Chiefs in opener; they’ve turned ball over seven times in losses, while converting just 5-30 on 3rd down. Titans are 8-12-1 in last 21 games as a home fave, 0-1 this year. All three Cleveland games were decided in last 0:06, with all three going over total; three of four Titans games stayed under. Browns scored 21+ points in all three games, are off bye week. Browns are 6-9-1 in last 16 games as road dog, 1-0 this year. Titans are 7-3 in series, winning 28-9/31-13 in last two meetings; Browns are 2-3 in five visits here, with both wins by FG. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread out of division, 2-0 as underdogs; AFC South teams are 5-7, 3-3 when favored.

Rams (1-2) @ Eagles (3-1)—Concern with Philly OL after they didn’t even try to run ball in from 2-yard line with game on line in last minutes at SF Sunday. Even in three wins, Iggles trailed all three games by 10+ points; not sure Foles is 100% after big hit he took in Week 3 vs Redskins. Rams are off bye after blowing 21-0 lead at home to Dallas, losing 34-31; Davis has been pleasant surprise at QB, converting 13-24 on 3rd down, averaging 7.1/7.8 ypa in first two NFL starts. St Louis is 10-7 as a road dog under Fisher. Philly is 10-18 in last 28 games as home favorite; 4-6 under Kelly. Eagles won last three series games by 1-35-18 points; Rams lost five of last six visits here, but last visit was in ’08. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread out of division, 3-1 on road; NFC East teams are 7-4, 3-0 when favored.

Falcons (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)—Atlanta allowed 12.6/10.6 ypa in losing first two road games, allowing 65 points without forcing turnover (-5); they’ve scored 28+ points in three of four games, with home side covering all four. Falcons are 3-6 in last nine games as road dogs. Giants rebounded from 0-2 start by scoring 75 points in wins over Texans/Redskins, scoring nine TDs on 25 drives, forcing nine turnovers (+7) after being -6 in first two games. Big Blue is 8-3 in last 11 games as home favorites, 1-1 this year. Giants won four of last five series games, but lost 34-0 in last meeting in 2012, in Georgia Dome. NFC South teams are 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional road games; NFC East teams are 7-4 out of division, 3-0 when favored. Three of four games for both teams went over total.

Bucs (1-3) @ Saints (1-3)—Third straight road game for Tampa, historically an NFL soft spot, but Bucs showed life behind backup QB Glennon last week, rallying from down 24-13 to beat Steelers in last minute on road. Saints won only home game, lackluster 20-9 win over Vikings; they’ve forced just one turnover this year (-6), none in last three games, but won last five games with Tampa Bay, winning last three here by average score of 37-11. NO is 19-3-1 in last 23 games as home favorite, 3-0 in last three when laying double digits. Bucs are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog; they've been outscored 72-17 in first half this year; two of their three TDs last week were on drives of less than 50 yards. Saint defense can’t get people off field; foes converted 27 of 56 (48.2%) on 3rd down against New Orleans.

Texans (3-1) @ Cowboys (3-1)—Underdogs are 25-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era; he is 6-20 as a home fave. Dallas scored 32.7 ppg in winning, covering last three games; they’re averaging 165 rushing yards for year, creating manageable 3rd down situations- they’ve converted 55.1% of their 3rd down plays. Houston is 6-10-1 in last 17 games as a road dog; they converted just 7 of last 26 on 3rd down, turning ball over three times in each of last two games, but defense scored go-ahead TD in last week’s home win over Bills. Cowboys won two of three series games, winning 34-6 in only game played here, in ‘xx. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-0 vs spread; AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread out of division, 2-4 as road dogs.

Bills (2-2) @ Lions (3-1)—Detroit fired Schwartz after last year; he is now Buffalo's DC; think this game means extra to him? Buffalo gave young QB Manuel quick hook, start veteran backup Orton under center here, after losing last two games; last week’s loss turned on Manuel’s red zone pick-6 that became winning 80-yard TD for Texans. Bills have only three TDs on last 11 red zone drives; they're 6-16-1 in last 23 games as a road dog. Detroit is 5-8 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they've allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, have converted 21-33 (63.9%) of 3rd down plays at home, winning both games by 21-12 points. Home side won last five series games; Bills lost three of four visits here, with last win in 1979. AFC East teams are 3-8 vs spread, 2-1 as road dogs. All four Buffalo games, last three Lion games stayed under total.

Ravens (3-1) @ Colts (2-2)—Indy scored 44-41 points in winning last two games (9 TDs on 23 drives) after starting year 0-2; they converted 15 of last 28 on 3rd down, forced six turnovers (+5) in two wins. Both teams have stretched out passing game in last two weeks; Ravens averaged 7.0/10.5 ypa in last two games, Colts 8.6/9.6- Indy has 16 plays of 20+ yards in last two games. Baltimore is 3-6-1 in last ten games as a road underdog, but won only road game this year, at Cleveland. Colts are 7-5 as home favorites under Pagano, 2-0 this year; they're 9-4 in this series, but lost 24-10/24-9 in last two meetings; Ravens are 0-5 at Indy, losing 31-3/20-3 in last two visits here. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-0 as underdogs. Last three Colt games went over the total.

Steelers (2-2) @ Jaguars (0-4)— Steelers are 11-21-1 as road favorites with Tomlin as coach, 6-18 as non-divisional road favorite since '05. Bad loss for Pitt last week, blowing 24-13 lead, losing in last 0:20 to Bucs after Brown dropped easy TD on flea-flicker when Steelers led 24-20. Penalties are issue for Pitt; they’ve been flagged 44 times for 387 yards (94.3 ypg). Jaguars have to win or cover, losing 44-17 to Colts in only home game; they’ve lost badly in field position this year (by 9-14-11-18 yards) and turned ball over three times in each of last two games (-6). Teams haven’t met since ’11; Pitt won last two meetings 26-21/17-13, won three of last four visits here. Jaguars are 6-19-1 in last 26 games as home underdogs; they lost only home game so far this year, 44-17 to Colts. Three of four games for both sides went over total.

Cardinals (3-0) @ Broncos (2-1)—One of NFL’s last two unbeaten as 7-point dogs? Arizona allowed 17-14-14 points in its three wins, and teams they beat are combined 7-2 in other games; their defense will go against Bronco squad that scored only 27 second half points in three games, but 17 came in last game, with Welker back from suspension. Arizona QB Stanton is 2-0 as starter for injured Palmer, but with only two TDs in eight red zone drives. Denver is 7-1-1 in series, but lost 43-13 in desert in last meeting in 2010; Redbirds are 0-4 in Denver, losing last two visits here by combined score of 75-13. Arizona is 4-2 as road dog under Arians; Denver is 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorite, but 0-2 this year. AFC West teams are 8-4 vs spread out of division, 2-2 as home favorites; NFC West teams are 5-5, 3-1 on road. All three games for both teams stayed under total.

Chiefs (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2)— You think Alex Smith is pumped up for this game, cast aside by 49ers after going 19-5-1 as their starting QB in 2011-12? Resurgent Chiefs scored 75 points in winning last two games, after scoring 27 in pair of opening losses; long travel on short work week makes this tough spot, though. 49ers allowed 21+ points in each of last three games, but all three TDs they gave up to Eagles last week came on special teams/defense. Home side won last eight series games, with four of last five decided by 14+ points; Chiefs lost last four visits here, three by 14+ points- their lone win here was in ‘76. AFC West teams are 8-4 vs spread out of division, 2-2 as home favorites; NFC West teams are 5-5, 3-1 on road. All four 49er games this season stayed under total.

Jets (1-3) @ Chargers (3-1)—Jets lost last three games since beating winless Raiders in opener; they’ve forced total of two turnovers in four games (-6). Gang Green is 26-59 (44.1%) on 3rd down, which is good, but with only 26 points n last eight red zone drives, at what point do they have to give Vick shot under center, before season slips away? Bolts are 2-0 at home, winning 30-21/33-14; they’re 3-1 as home favorites under McCoy. Chargers haven’t turned ball over in last three games (+4), averaged 9.7/8.9 ypa in last two games and have won field position by 7+ yards in every game. Jets are 12-14-1 as road underdogs under Ryan, 6-10-1 in non-divisional games. AFC East teams are 3-8 vs spread out of division, 2-1 as road underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-4, 2-2 as home favorites. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Jets won four of last five visits here.

Bengals (3-0) @ Patriots (2-2)—New England looked old/slow in dreadful Monday night loss in Kansas City; remember they’re 26-9 vs spread in game after their last 35 losses and 24-17 vs spread in last 41 home games, 16-10 in last 26 non-divisional games- since ’05, they’re 1-1 as home underdogs. On first drive of each half, Pats gained total of only 65 yards on 28 plays, with no points. Bengals have yet to allow point on first drive of a half; they held all three opponents to 5.1 or less ypa and outscored foes 44-3 in first half of games- they are 20-10-1 in last 31 games where spread was 3 or less points. NE is 10-6 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less. AFC East home teams are 0-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread outside their division. All three Bengal games stayed under total.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (1-3)—Washington imploded in last game, turning ball over six times, converting 1-8 on 3rd down in 45-14 home loss to division rival Giants. Skins’ only win was over lowly Jaguars, now defending champs come in off bye. Seattle is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorite but lost only road game this year, at San Diego. Redskins is 3-4 in last nine games as a home dog; they won six of last nine series games- all three losses came in playoff games. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread outside division, 3-1 on road. NFC East teams are 7-4 vs spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Last three Washington games, two of three Seahawk games went over the total. Serious question: If you’re Pete Carroll, how much do you tell ESPN’s Jon Gruden in your production meeting, seeing as his brother coaches the Redskins?

 

[CNOTES]

Week 5 Look-Ahead

October 2, 2014


Is there going to be an undefeated team through four games?

Defense will dictate the answer one way or another.

The burden falls upon Arizona and Cincinnati if it's going to happen, but both have road games against last season's AFC Championship participants as obstacles. To remain perfect, the Cardinals and Bengals will have to pull off upsets since oddsmakers list both as road underdogs.

Aside from the goose egg in the loss column, there is something else the NFL's lone unbeaten teams have in common. Both lead their respective conferences in points allowed per game. The Bengals have given up 11 per through their first three, while the Cardinals check in at 15.0, even with Baltimore and slightly ahead of Detroit (15.5), both of which have played four games.

It's no surprise that all four of those are projected playoff teams in the VI Power Poll, ranking among our Top 10. The Seahawks are your defending champions. Denver went out and tried to upgrade it's resistance, not the Peyton Manning-led arsenal. Replacing Eric Decker with Emmanuel Sanders qualifies as re-stocking, which it appears it's done quite well.

The NFL is a league where most teams can score, but what separates you is defense.

If I were to try and get a head coaching gig from Raiders owner Mark Davis once Jon Gruden turns him down, I'd pitch emulating Seattle, which would include praying D.J. Hayden might finally get healthy. The Seahawks have established the current blue print, which is why next year's draft should see FSU's P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby, Oregon's Ifo Ekpre-Olumu and Alabama safety Landon Collins in high demand as they take center stage in big games. Defensive backs are going to make a massive difference as these rule changes evolve and flags continue to grant chunk yardage.

Arizona's Patrick Peterson is probably the most athletic, physically-gifted corner in the game. We'll now going to see whether he's far along enough to anchor a unit that acquired Antonio Cromartie, welcomed back Tyrann Mathieu and seen rookie Deone Bucannon make an immediate impact. The ingredients are there for the Cardinals secondary to emerge as special.

If you were paying attention in August, you may have already heard Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis call Michigan State's Darqueze Dennard the "best rookie corner I've ever seen." He joined a group of corners featuring consistent veteran Terrence Newman, Leon Hall back from injury and talented Dre Kirkpatrick, who has had a huge impact on special teams. Having that secondary, led by elite safety Reggie Nelson, behind an impressive front seven, gives you the impression that the work the Bengals defense has put in thus far is no fluke. Thus far, they've shut down Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and Jake Locker, which means you can't dismiss the caliber of their competition.

Tom Brady is up next. He'll actually be able to hear himself think in friendly Foxboro, but the Bengals aren't the ideal opponent to help revive a defense Brady himself feels hasn't been good for quite some time and comes off a dreadful effort at Kansas City. Considering a potential shift in power is possible in the AFC, the Sunday night game may end up being one of the regular season's most important when we look back on things in January.

The Cardinals will take aim at Peyton Manning and the Broncos, representative of their biggest challenge, but not necessarily a massive step up in class. Thus far, Arizona has handled Philip Rivers, Eli Manning and Colin Kaepernick and imposed their will against all of them. It remains to be seen whether losing Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington and John Abraham for the season will catch up to them, but it's yet to have an adversely effect thus far. Like Cincinnati, Arizona and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles had the luxury of a bye week in between their last win and Sunday's test against an elite Super Bowl-winning quarterback, improving their chances of success.

Baltimore has long been among the NFL's most respected defensive teams, but this year's unit remains unproven, replacing Arthur Jones, Jameel McClainand James Ihedigbo while the ghosts of defenses past featuring Ray Lewis and Ed Reed remain fresh in people's minds. This year's numbers are certain to be tested by Andrew Luck and the league's highest-scoring offense, but it's a good sign that the Ravens have faced each of their division mates already and more than held their own. Facing the Colts in Indianapolis is the type of game that will either galvanize John Harbaugh's team or expose weakneeses that everyone will be clued in on.

Detroit's defense being this productive can be considered a surprise, though it was statistically best in the NFC North last season. Ndamukong Suh has been a force and the secondary has been solid, which was probably one motivating factor in Buffalo giving Kyle Orton the nod over E.J. Manuel, improving the Bills chances of excelling on the road. Manuel has been brutal enough that the Lions would've been able to capitalize on him the way they did on the road against Geno Smith, but this group has also looked good against Eli Manning, Newton and Aaron Rodgers.

Ranking fifth and sixth in the NFL in lowest scoring average allowed, San Diego (15.75) and Houston (16.75) are also division leaders, givng the teams we're highlighting entering the weekend another common link. The Chargers beat the Seahawks after losing at Arizona on the opening Monday night and have snacked on Buffalo and Jacksonville the past two weeks. With the error-prone Jets in town, you can understand why they're expected to remain ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West whether the Mile High hosts can handle the Cardinals or not.

The Texans will face the Cowboys in a telling game for both, since you undoubtedly could've gotten great odds on the Lone Star state's pro football-playing cities vying for the right to get to 4-1 when they came out for training camp. Houston's J.J. Watt was the AFC Defensive Player of the Month, helping make up for the absence of Jadeveon Clowney, who looked the part of the difference-maker we expected he'd be before hurting his knee. He might be back by month's end.

Tony Romo will be a great adversary since he's backed by the league's top rusher in DeMarco Murray and one of the most feared receivers, Dez Bryant. Although Houston has risen to the top of the AFC South on the strength of the defense, they did allow Eli Manning's breakthrough performance in their only loss. Their wins suggest the verdict should be out on them considering they've beaten a rusty-looking Robert Griffin III, rookie Derek Carr and Manuel, whose benching they forced.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, only one team of the nine that has surrendered 100 or more points has a winning record. The Eagles are 3-1, while the remaining eight are a combined 10-26.

Jacksonville, surrendering an average of 38 points per game, hosts a Pittsburgh team that gave Tampa Bay its first win and should fire offensive coordinator Todd Haley if it fails to keep its season alive with a win. Considering the Steelers have two of the league's top defensive teams in their division and can't afford to fall under .500 one-third of the way in, calling their game against the Jaguars a must-win isn't far-fetched.

Is New Orleans-Tampa Bay an elimination game? Probably.

Tennessee, Washington and the N.Y. Jets are in the same boat among 1-3 teams that hoped to compete for a playoff berth entering the season.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5

October 4, 2014


NFL USER TREND:

-- The Rams are 17-1-1 ATS since November 27, 2005 on the road against a non-divisonal opponent that had less than 200 passing yards in their last game.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bills are 11-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since December 20, 1997 as a 7+ dog when they lost and failed to cover their last two games

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since September 30, 2012 when facing a team that ha s allowed more than 4.4 yards per carry season-to-date.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-12-1 ATS (-7.3 ppg) past week one when Calvin Johnson had at least seven receptions in a loss the last time they faced this team.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-10 ATS as a road favorite by at least six points.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that lost by a TD in overtime last game are 43-34-3 ATS. Active on Denver.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Eagles are 12-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 27, 2008 on artificial turf after a loss as a dog.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 5

October 4, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 5 Consensus Picks (Number of Selections)

1) Denver -7 vs. Arizona (405)
2) Baltimore +3.5 at Indianapolis (354)
3) Cincinnati -1 at New England (347)
4) San Diego -6.5 vs. N.Y. Jets (347)
5) Chicago +2.5 at Carolina (329)

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay -1.5 WIN
2) Kansas City +3.5 WIN
3) Atlanta -3 LOSS
4) Philadelphia +5.5 WIN
5) New Orleans -3 LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage

1 2-3 2-3 40%

2 3-2 5-5 50%

3 5-0 10-5 67%

4 3-2 13-7 65%

5 - - -

6 - - -

7 - - -

8 - - -

9 - - -

10 - - -


11 - - -

12 - - -

13 - - -

14 - - -

15 - - -

16 - - -

17 - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Week 5 Tip Sheet

October 4, 2014

Bears at Panthers (-2 ½, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- The Bears are winless at home this season but have won each of their two road contests. Chicago hung with Green Bay early by taking a 17-14 lead late in the second quarter. However, the Bears were outscored, 24-0 the rest of the way in a 38-17 loss to the Packers as a 1 ½-point home underdog. In spite of the defeat, the Bears gained 466 yards on offense, while cashing their third straight ‘over.’
-- The Panthers have dropped two straight since a 2-0 start, coming off an ugly 38-10 defeat at Baltimore as 3 ½-point underdogs. The defense has been torched, allowing 75 points in the last two weeks after giving up just 21 points in the first two victories. To make matters worse, Carolina gave up a staggering 391 yards on the ground combined to the Steelers and Ravens.

Previous meeting: This is the fourth time these teams are hooking up in five seasons, as the road teams cashed in each of the past three matchups. Chicago held off Carolina at Soldier Field, 23-22 as 8 ½-point favorites in 2012, as the Bears won in spite of racking up just 210 yards of offense. The last time the Bears visited Charlotte in 2010, Chicago cruised past Carolina, 23-6 as short underdogs behind Todd Collins, who actually threw four interceptions in the win.

What to watch for: Carolina has won 10 of its past 13 games at Bank of America Stadium, which includes a solid 7-1-1 ATS record in the home favorite role. After posting a 2-6 ATS record in the underdog role last season, the Bears have covered two of three times this season when receiving points, including both times on the highway against the 49ers and Jets. Chicago has been a nearly automatic ‘over’ team away from Soldier Field under Marc Trestman, going 8-2 to the ‘over’ in 10 tries.

Falcons at Giants (-4, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- Atlanta continues to struggle on the road, losing each of its first two games away from the Georgia Dome this season. The Falcons were run out by the Vikings as five-point away favorites, 41-28 last Sunday. Minnesota torched Atlanta for 558 yards of offense, the third time the Falcons have allowed at least 470 yards in a game in 2014.
-- The Giants have woken up following an 0-2 start by blowing out the Texans and Redskins. New York ripped apart Washington last Thursday, 45-14, as Eli Manning threw four touchdown passes and ran in another one. The Giants forced nine turnovers in the past two victories after not creating a turnover in the first two losses to Detroit and Arizona.

Previous meeting: The Falcons blanked the Giants at the Georgia Dome late in the 2012 season, 34-0 as one-point favorites. Atlanta held the ball for nearly 39 minutes as Matt Ryan tossed three touchdowns, snapping a four-game skid against New York dating back to 2006.

What to watch for: Since the 2012 season, the Giants own a 1-4-1 ATS record off a road victory, while winning six of their past seven home games against NFC South foes. The Falcons have cashed just three of their previous nine opportunities as a road underdog, but Atlanta has won five of its last seven road games coming off an away contest since 2010.

Texans at Cowboys (-6 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- The Texans rebounded from an ugly Week 3 performance against the Giants, as Houston rallied past Buffalo last Sunday, 23-17 to improve to 3-1 on the season. After digging themselves a 10-0 hole, the Texans scored a touchdown to get within three, but the monster momentum swing came on a J.J. Watt interception return for a touchdown to put Houston in front for good, while covering as three-point favorites.
-- The Cowboys won their third in a row, dismantling the Saints as home underdogs, 38-17. Dallas is averaging 32.6 points per game in its three victories, while DeMarco Murray ran all over the New Orleans defense for 149 yards and two touchdowns to give the Cowboys its first three-game winning streak since 2012.

Previous meeting: Dallas took care of Houston, 27-13 as 2 ½-point road underdogs in Week 3 of the 2010 season. Tony Romo hooked up with Roy Williams for a pair of touchdown strikes, as the Cowboys own a 2-1 record against their cross-state rivals since Houston entered the league in 2002.

What to watch for: The Cowboys are in the home favorite role for the first time this season, but it hasn’t been a bettor-friendly situation. Dallas has compiled a dreadful 6-19 ATS record as a home favorite since 2010, including a 1-5 ATS mark against AFC opponents in this span. The Texans have cashed all three games in the favorite role this season, but is 0-1 in their lone underdog situation.

Cardinals at Broncos (-7 ½, 47 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- Arizona is just one of two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL through four weeks, as the Cardinals rested in Week 4. The previous contest for the Cards prior to the bye came against the 49ers, as Arizona erased a 14-6 deficit in a 23-14 home triumph as three-point underdogs. Drew Stanton grabbed his second straight win as a starting quarterback, replacing the injured Carson Palmer.
-- Denver is also fresh off the bye week, trying to recover from an overtime loss at Seattle in a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos put up a better performance than their February dud against the Seahawks, as Denver forced OT with a touchdown and two-point conversion late in regulation. However, Seattle scored a touchdown in the extra session to cover as four-point favorites, 26-20.

Previous meeting: The Cardinals are making their first trip to Denver since 2002, as Arizona picked up a convincing 43-14 rout of the Broncos in 2010. To show how much has changed with these teams since that matchup, Kyle Orton and John Skelton were the starting quarterbacks that Sunday, as the Cardinals scored 24 fourth quarter points to cash as four-point underdogs.

What to watch for: Under Bruce Arians, the Cardinals have put together a solid 8-3 ATS record as an underdog, including an outright victory at Seattle last season. Entering this season, the Broncos were 21-9-1 ATS as a favorite since Peyton Manning took over at quarterback, but Denver has failed to cover in each ‘chalk’ opportunity this season against Indianapolis and Kansas City.

Chiefs at 49ers (-5 ½, 44) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- Kansas City blasted New England last Monday night, 41-14 as three-point home underdogs to improve to 2-2. After the offense was non-existent in the first two losses, the Chiefs have exploded for 75 points in the past two weeks, while the defense has limited opponents to 29 points in two victories.
-- San Francisco allowed three non-offensive touchdowns to Philadelphia to fall behind, 21-10, but the 49ers rallied for a 26-21 home victory. The Niners barely cashed as 4 ½-point favorites, holding the Eagles out of the end zone on a goal-to-go situation late in the fourth quarter, while outgaining Philadelphia, 407-213.

Previous meeting: The Chiefs blew out the 49ers at Arrowhead Stadium in September 2010 by a 31-10 count as 2 ½-point underdogs. Since 1985, the home team has won all eight matchups, as the Chiefs are making their first visit to the Bay Area in 12 years.

What to watch for: San Francisco owns an 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU in their last 10 games off a home win since the middle of the 2012 season, while being in this situation for the first time this season. Kansas City has cashed all three times as an underdog, while putting together a 9-2 ATS record away from Arrowhead Stadium under Andy Reid.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action

October 3, 2014


BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 49

Both the Ravens and the Colts look to keep their winning streaks alive when they square off in Indianapolis on Sunday.

Baltimore defeated Carolina 38-10 on Sunday for its third straight win, racking up 454 total yards in the process. Indianapolis also blew out its second straight opponent, beating the Titans 41-17 at home thanks to 393 yards and four touchdowns from Andrew Luck. The past five meetings between the Colts and Ravens have gone Under the total. They last met in the playoffs on January 6, 2013, when Baltimore advanced with a 24-9 home win. Luck threw for 288 yards in that game but was unable to find the end zone and threw an interception. Indianapolis has, however, won the past five meetings at home SU, while covering the past three matchups at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Over the past three years, the Colts are 8-0 ATS in home games where the Total is between 45.5 and 49 points. For those looking to play the Total, the Ravens are 8-1 Under in the past three seasons after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game. Both quarterbacks should benefit from depleted secondaries, as S LaRon Landry (suspension) is out for the next four weeks for the Colts, while teammates LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring) and DE Arthur Jones (ankle) are both questionable for Sunday. CB Lardarius Webb (back) and DE Chris Canty (knee) are both questionable for the Ravens.

The Ravens did not seem to be on the right track after a 23-16 Week 1 home loss to the Bengals, but they’ve won three straight thanks to some excellent play by QB Joe Flacco (1,055 pass yards, 7 TD, 2 INT). Flacco absolutely picked apart the Panthers last week, throwing for 327 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. WR Steve Smith (25 rec, 429 yards, 3 TD) was his top receiver in that game, catching seven passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns versus his former team. Smith has shown the same ability to break free on deep passes that he did in Carolina, and he and Flacco should have plenty of opportunities to connect against a poor Colts’ passing defense. Indianapolis is allowing 251.3 passing yards per game (21st in NFL) and without suspended S LaRon Landry, it could really struggle to defend Flacco’s receivers when they go deep.

The Ravens have gotten some good production out of backup RBs Justin Forsett (255 rush yards, 5.8 YPC, 2 TD) and Lorenzo Taliaferro (149 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 2 TD). Baltimore’s passing defense has been suspect though, allowing 260.3 yards per game through the air (24th in NFL). This will not be acceptable against Andrew Luck, who is the league’s passing leader early in the season. The Ravens do, however, defend the run very well. They’re allowing just 82.5 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL) and should be able to keep RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson in check.

Indianapolis had a rough start to its season, dropping the first two games, but has since looked a lot better in back-to-back wins by a combined score of 85 to 34. QB Andrew Luck (1,305 pass yards, 13 TD, 4 INT) was outstanding against the Titans and now turns his attention to a Ravens’ defense that has given up some big games this year. The Colts will likely try to pound away with their running back duo of Ahmad Bradshaw (182 rush yards, 5.4 YPC) and Trent Richardson (203 rush yards, 3.3 YPC, 1 TD) early, but later in the game they’ll take the reigns off of Luck like they have in every game this season. Bradshaw leads the team with four touchdown receptions.

WR Reggie Wayne (23 rec, 307 yards, 1 TD) has been one of Luck’s most consistent targets this season, producing seven receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown against the Titans last week. He could find even more holes in a defense that is far worse against the pass than Tennessee is. The Colts have been solid defensively over the past two weeks, allowing just 104.8 yards per game on the ground (11th in NFL), and they’ll need to be effective stopping the run in order to make things more difficult on Joe Flacco. If the Colts can stop the Baltimore running backs, they should have a great chance of coming away with a victory.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-2) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Francisco -6.5, Total: 44.5

The red-hot Chiefs seek their third straight victory when they visit the 49ers on Sunday afternoon.

Kansas City has dismantled its past two opponents, beating the Dolphins and Patriots by a combined score of 75 to 29. The Chiefs will try to establish their excellent ground game (145 YPG, 4th in NFL) with the one-two punch of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, but could have difficulty against this tough San Francisco defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards in football (287 YPG). Last week, the club did not allow an offensive point, and held the Eagles to a mere 22 yards on 12 carries, which was quite a feat considering Philly led the NFL with 160.4 rushing YPG last year. Since 1992, Kansas City is 18-6 ATS when facing NFC West division opponents, but is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the past two years.

The 49ers, however, are 8-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two out of their previous three games over the past three seasons. Kansas City and San Francisco have met just four times since the year 2000, with the most recent meeting between these teams occurring on September 26, 2010, when the Chiefs won 31-10 as a three-point home underdogs. TE Vernon Davis (back) and OT Anthony Davis (knee) are listed as questionable for the 49ers, as is Chiefs star S Eric Berry, who has missed the past two games with a severely sprained ankle.

Kansas City is coming off its best performance of the year, a 41-14 blowout over the Patriots on Monday night. QB Alex Smith (891 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT) picked apart the New England secondary, going 20-of-26 for 248 yards and three touchdowns. Smith now faces a much better defense in San Francisco, the team that he played for from 2005 to 2012. RB Jamaal Charles (115 rush yards, 4.3 YPC, 1 TD) returned from a high ankle sprain on Monday night and dominated with three touchdowns (1 rush, 2 receiving) while rushing for 92 yards on 18 carries plus catching three passes for 16 yards. The Chiefs will heavily feature their superstar against the 49ers, as they try to control the time of possession in the game.

One player who really emerged for K.C. in the win over New England was TE Travis Kelce (18 rec, 259 yards, 2 TD), who caught eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. He showed some outstanding run after the catch ability with 36 yards after contact and should be a big part of the gameplan against the 49ers. Kansas City’s defense has been good against the pass this season, allowing just 221.5 YPG through the air (8th in NFL). They are beatable on the ground, however, and must stop a solid 49ers running game.

San Francisco had to hold on tight for a win against the Eagles last week to snap a two-game losing skid. The 49ers made some costly turnovers in the game, allowing the Eagles to score one defensive TD and two special teams touchdowns (punt return and blocked punt) but they would weather the storm behind the excellent play of RB Frank Gore (258 rush yards, 4.4 YPC, 1 TD). Gore was a monster in Week 4, rushing 24 times for 119 yards (5.0 YPC) while also catching a 55-yard touchdown pass. The Chiefs are a good defensive team, so Gore will have his work cut out for him if he’s going to repeat that performance. One thing he does have going for him is that the erratic Colin Kaepernick (912 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 6 TD, 4 INT) is his quarterback. The 49ers may be best off trying to control the clock, rather than trying to throw all over a defense that frustrated Tom Brady last Monday. Kaepernick has been very up and down this season. He was 17-of-30 for 218 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles last week, but he did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

The Niners defense has been one of the best in the league to start the season and that should give them a chance to win in nearly every game they play this year. They are allowing just 217.5 passing yards per game (7th in NFL) and 69.8 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL). This matchup will ultimately come down to how the 49ers defense plays against the Chiefs’ running game.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-0) at DENVER BRONCOS (2-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Denver -7, Total: 48.5

Two of the league’s best teams meet in the mile-high altitude on Sunday when the Cardinals visit the Broncos.

Arizona and Denver are both coming off bye weeks, which bodes well for the Broncos, who have won-and-covered in four straight games when playing after bye weeks. The Cardinals hope to get top QB Carson Palmer back from a shoulder injury, but he remains questionable, so the team may once again ride journeyman QB Drew Stanton who led his team to two victories under center. These clubs have met just five times since 1992 and the Broncos have owned this series, going 4-1 (SU and ATS) in those games. They have won-and-covered in both home games and all five meetings have finished Over the total. The Cardinals have the luxury of facing a Denver team that is just 13-27 ATS in home games off a non-conference game since 1992. However, the Broncos are 7-0 ATS after gaining 75 or les rushing yards in their previous game over the past three years.

Arizona QB Drew Stanton (411 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) did an excellent job his team while Carson Palmer (304 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) was out with a shoulder injury. Stanton led the Cardinals to two straight wins, including a home victory over the 49ers in Week 3. Whoever starts under center need to re-establish top WR Larry Fitzgerald (10 rec, 107 yards, 0 TD), who has been disappointing this season, but he is still a big target with tons of playmaking ability. It just does not seem realistic that this offense can continue to put up points without using its best pass catcher. With Fitzgerald struggling, rookie WR John Brown (9 rec, 109 yards, 3 TD) has been the best source of touchdowns in the passing game. Brown has game-breaking speed and is a threat to score every time he catches a screen pass.

RB Andre Ellington (206 rush yards, 0 TD) has run the ball well all season, but has yet to find the end zone. He could have trouble against a Broncos defense that is allowing just 105.3 yards per game on the ground (12th in NFL). The Cardinals have been great defensively to start the year, as they are allowing just 71.7 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL) and 244.7 passing yards per game (18th in NFL). But they’ll need to be extra prepared for this meeting with the Broncos’ potent offense.

Denver is coming off of a much-needed bye week after it played a grueling overtime game against the Seahawks in Week 3. The Broncos now must quickly turn their attention to one of the league’s hottest teams. Denver’s defense has been good against the run this season, but has really struggled to defend the pass. The Broncos are allowing 285.3 passing yards per game (31st in NFL) and that could be an issue as they go up against Carson Palmer and an excellent vertical passing Cardinals’ team. There’s a slight chance this game turns into a shootout, and if it does, QB Peyton Manning (814 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) will need to have his offense ready. Manning has thrown for 384 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in two career meetings with the Cardinals. His team will likely need a lot more production than that to win this game.

RB Montee Ball (165 rush yards, 1 TD) will need to get himself going for the Broncos soon, or he could lose his job as the starting running back. Ball is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and that is not nearly enough playing for a team whose passing game requires so much attention by opposing defenses. Another player who has been disappointing for the Broncos is WR Demaryius Thomas (13 rec, 141 yards, 1 TD). Thomas has had at least 1,400 yards and double-digit touchdowns in his first two seasons with Manning as his quarterback, and has not looked like the same receiver this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Top Over bets in action Sunday

Perched at the top of the list as the best best Over bets in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts each bring unblemished 4-0 Over/Under records into early action Sunday.

The Colts have scored at least 41 points on their own in each of the previous two games. They host the Baltimore Ravens and oddsmakers have tabbed the game with a total of 49.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, just can't stop anybody from scoring. They've given up a whopping 152 points in their four games this season - easily the highest total in the league. They host the Pittsburgh Steelers with a total of 47.5.

Also a hot Over bet to begin the season, the Cleveland Browns are 3-0 O/U and visit the Tennessee Titans with a total of 44.


Bears struggle to cover after big home loss

The Chicago Bears were thumped at home by the Green Bay Packers 38-17 last week and that doesn't bode well for Bears backers this week when they visit Carolina.

The Bears are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. They are currently 2.5-point road dogs for their Sunday afternoon matchup against the Panthers.


Rams keep cashing Under tickets

The St. Louis Rams have become a boon for bettors banking on low totals.

The Under is a sizzling 7-1 in the Rams' last eight games. St. Louis travels to Philadelphia for a date with the Eagles Sunday.

Philly is currently 6.5-point faves with the total set at 47.5.


History shows faves prevailing in Bucs-Saints games

The dogs haven't had their day in previous meetings between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints.

The faves are 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups between the two clubs. They'll renew acquaintances in Louisiana Sunday.

The Saints are presently 10.5-point home faves with a total of 48.


Lions-Bills have history of low-scoring games

If you've been backing the Under when the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills have gotten together as of late, you've been collecting some nice profits.

Each of the last four games between the two clubs have gone under the total. Detroit will host the Bills in Week 5 NFL action Sunday.

Detroit is currently 6.5-point favorites with an O/U of 43.5.


Titans proving to be a poor spread bet at home

The Tennessee Titans have been an awful spread bet at LP Field, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.

That's a trend that Titans backers need to be aware of ahead of Tennessee's meeting with Cleveland in Nashville Sunday.

Tennessee is currently 2-point home faves with an Over/Under of 44.


Colts have become a boon for Over bettors

Andrew Luck's high-flying Indianapolis Colts offense has put some cash in the pockets of bettors backing the Over in their recent games.

All six of the Colts' last six games have gone over the total. Indy welcomes Baltimore into Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday.

Indianapolis is presently 3.5-point favorites with the total set at 49.


Under on fire when Panthers play NFC teams

When the Carolina Panthers face off against NFC teams, low-scoring games tend to follow.

The Under is 9-0 in the Panthers' last nine games against NFC clubs. They'll host the NFC North's Chicago Bears Sunday.

Cam Newton's crew is currently 2.5-point faves with a total of 45.5.


Underdog covering with ease in Jags-Steelers clashes

If you're planning on wagering on the spread in Sunday's Jacksonville Jaguars-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup, there's one particular trend you need to be aware of.

In the last eight contests between the two teams, the underdog is a perfect 8-0. The Jags will host the Steelers once again in Week 5 NFL action Sunday.

The Jaguars are currently 6-point home dogs with a total of 47.5 for the game.


Texans posting ugly ATS numbers on turf

The Houston Texans have been a nightmare for spread bettors when playing on turf lately, going 0-8 ATS in their last eight games played on the artificial surface.

The Texans will once again play on fieldturf when they travel to AT&T Stadium for a meeting with the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.

The 'Boys are currently 6.5-point home faves with a total of 47.


Under scorching hot between Giants-Falcons

The Under has been the hot play when the New York Giants and the Atlanta Falcons collide, going 7-1-1 in the last nine matchups between the two clubs.

Atlanta travels to MetLife Stadium Sunday for a date with the G-Men. The Giants are presently 4-point home favorites with a total of 50.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Slight wind in forecast for Browns-Titans matchup

The Tennessee Titans host the Cleveland Browns from LP Field Sunday afternoon, and though weather conditions look to be fairly ideal, wind could play a factor in the game.

Forecasts are calling for wind to blow from the south toward the north endzone at around nine mph at the start of the game, and then increase to around 11 mph.

The Titans are currently 1.5-point home favorites and oddsmakers have tabbed the game with a total of 44.


Eagles dominating Rams against the spread

The St. Louis Rams backers are hoping newly named starting quarterback Austin Davis will have more success covering the spread versus the Eagles than his predecessors.

The Rams are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine meetings with the Eagles and they are currently 6.5-point underdogs for their Sunday afternoon matchup.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Total on the rise as Rams visit Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles host the St. Louis Rams Sunday and the Westgate LV Superbook opened the total at 48. That dropped to 47.5 earlier in the week but that number is on the move once again.

Earlier Sunday morning, the book adjusted the total back up to 48.

The Eagles have been a profitable Over venture so far this season, posting a 3-1 O/U record. The Rams are 1-2 O/U.


Buccaneers have trouble covering vs. NFC

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled off a huge road win in Pittsburgh last week, but have struggled when it comes to covering the spread versus NFC and specificially division opponents.

And that's who the Bucs get this week when they travel to the Super Dome to take on the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games versus the NFC and are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus the NFC South.

 

[HacheMan]

Thanks & GL Cnotes

 

[CNOTES]

Trends to Watch - October

October 1, 2014


The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.

Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.

Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).

AWAY TEAMS

Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.

Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).

Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?

Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.

Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.

Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.

The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.

Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.

Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.

DOGS

Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.


Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.


Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?


Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.


San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.


The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.

The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.


Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?


With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.

You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, October 5

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Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Patriots
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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+1, 46)

Coming off one of the most embarrassing defeats during the Bill Belichick regime, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots hope to get back on track when they host the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night. It's the second prime-time matchup in seven days for the Patriots, who appeared ill-equipped to deal with the bright lights in a 41-14 drubbing at Kansas City. New England has lost back-to-back games only four times since 2003, the most recent coming in September 2012.

Brady is averaging under 200 yards passing and was picked off twice in the debacle against the Chiefs, leading to whispers that age may have caught up to the 37-year-old quarterback, who acknowledged: "I don't think we've played well for a long time." Meanwhile, the Bengals are well rested following their bye week and have surrendered only three touchdowns while permitting a league-best 11.0 points per game. Cincinnati beat the visiting Patriots 13-6 last season, snapping Brady's streak of throwing a touchdown pass in 52 consecutive games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Bengals -1. O/U: 46

LINE HISTORY: Line initially opened with the Patriots -3, but bettors hammered the Bengals after New England's last performance. Patriots are now +1. The opening total of 46 has yet to shift.

INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR Marvin Jones (Ques-Foot), LB Vontaze Burfict (Ques-Concussion), G Kevin Zeitler (Ques-Calf) Patriots - CB Alfonzo Dennard (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Eligible-Suspension), WR Aaron Dobson (Ques-Foot)

WEATHER: Foxborough will have clear skies, but will be cold for the game with temperatures around 48°. There will be light winds of 6 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-5.25) - Patriots (-1) + Home Field (-3) = Bengals -1.25

ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has been criticized for failing to win a playoff game, but his 33 victories since 2011 rank second in the league - behind only Brady - and he has a pair of dangerous weapons in wideout A.J. Green and dual-threat running back Giovani Bernard. Green missed nearly all of Week 2 due to a turf-toe injury but has two 100-yard games and is coming off a pair of 11-touchdown seasons in which he hauled in 98 and 97 passes. Bernard is tied with Green for the team lead with 12 receptions while rushing for three scores and has a capable backup in powerful rookie Jeremy Hill, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Carlos Dunlap has three of seven sacks for Cincinnati, which has six interceptions in the first three games.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Brady, who has already been sacked nine times behind a struggling offensive line and is completing a career-worst 59.1 percent of his passes, was yanked during the dismal effort in Kansas City. “I don’t think in any phase of the game we’re playing the way we need to play in order to compete at a high level week in and week out," Brady said. The running game lacks consistency while Julian Edelman has 26 catches to lead a receiving corps that lacks a playmaker with tight end Rob Gronkowski still not in top form less than a full year from undergoing ACL surgery. New England made major moves to revamp its defense in the offseason, including the signing of cornerback Darrelle Revis, but was gashed for 207 yards rushing by the Chiefs.

TRENDS:

*Bengals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
*Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 home games.

CONSENSUS: 59.07% of users are taking the Bengals -1 with 58.03 percent on the over.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 MLB Playoff Results

October 5, 2014

Overall Results:

-- Underdogs are 7-3

-- Road teams are 6-4

-- The Over is 5-5

American League Divisional Series

Detroit vs. Baltimore

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 Detroit at Baltimore (+110) 12-3 Underdog Over 7

2 Detroit at Baltimore (-120) 7-6 Favorite Over 7.5

3 Baltimore at Detroit - - -

4 Baltimore at Detroit - - -

5 Detroit at Baltimore - - -


Kansas City vs. Los Angeles

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under


1 Kansas City (+165) at Los Angeles 3-2 (11) Underdog Under 7 ½

2 Kansas City (+155) at Los Angeles 4-1 (11) Underdog Under 7

3 Los Angeles at Kansas City - - -

4 Los Angeles at Kansas City - - -

5 Kansas City at Los Angeles - - -


National League Divisional Series

San Francisco vs. Washington

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 San Francisco (+165) at Washington 3-2 Underdog Under 7

2 San Francisco (+180) at Washington 2-1 (18) Underdog Under 7

3 Washington at San Francisco - - -

4 Washington at San Francisco - - -

5 San Francisco at Washington - - -


St. Louis vs. Los Angeles

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 St. Louis (+165) at Los Angeles 10-9 Underdog Over 6

2 St. Louis at Los Angeles (-170) 3-2 Favorite Under 7

3 Los Angeles at St. Louis - - -

4 Los Angeles at St. Louis - - -

5 St. Louis at Los Angeles - - -


Wild Card

Wild Card Game

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

AL Oakland at Kansas City (+100) 9-8 (12) Underdog Over 6 ½

NL San Francisco (-110) at Pittsburgh 8-0 Favorite Over 6 ½

 

[CNOTES]

October Rated Record:

0 - 0 ......................... *****

0 - 0 ......................... DOUBLE PLAY

2 - 0 ......................... TRIPLE PLAY

0 - 0 ......................... BLOW OUT


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 2-*0-*0 100.00% +1000


Sunday, October 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -1 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Carolina - Under 46.5 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland -1 500
Tennessee - Under 44.5 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +4.5 500 BLOW OUT
Philadelphia - Under 48 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
N.Y. Giants - Over 50.5 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -10.5 500 *****
New Orleans - Over 47.5 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Dallas -5.5 500 *****
Dallas - Under 47.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Detroit - Under 43 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +2.5 500 *****
Indianapolis - Under 49 500 *****

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Jacksonville - Under 47.5 500

0 - 0 ......................... *****

0 - 0 ......................... DOUBLE PLAY

2 - 0 ......................... TRIPLE PLAY

0 - 0 ......................... BLOW OUT


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 2-*0-*0 100.00% +1000

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Consensus Picks

October 5, 2014 »

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM St. Louis +4.5 1268 29.85% Philadelphia -4.5 2980 70.15% View View

4:25 PM N.Y. Jets +6.5 1264 30.57% San Diego -6.5 2871 69.43% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo +4.5 1600 38.79% Detroit -4.5 2525 61.21% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay +10.5 1597 39.64% New Orleans -10.5 2432 60.36% View View

1:00 PM Baltimore +2.5 1701 41.13% Indianapolis -2.5 2435 58.87% View View

4:05 PM Arizona +7.5 1886 47.46% Denver -7.5 2088 52.54% View View

1:00 PM Houston +5 2085 50.59% Dallas -5 2036 49.41% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta +4.5 2209 52.56% N.Y. Giants -4.5 1994 47.44% View View

4:25 PM Kansas City +4 2054 52.73% San Francisco -4 1841 47.27% View View

8:30 PM Cincinnati -2.5 2265 56.54% New England +2.5 1741 43.46% View View

1:00 PM Chicago +1 2398 56.65% Carolina -1 1835 43.35% View View

1:00 PM Cleveland -1 2150 62.59% Tennessee +1 1285 37.41% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh -5.5 2765 67.24% Jacksonville +5.5 1347 32.76% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Cleveland 44.5 954 43.70% Tennessee 44.5 1229 56.30% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh 47.5 1228 44.65% Jacksonville 47.5 1522 55.35% View View

1:00 PM Chicago 46.5 1404 50.61% Carolina 46.5 1370 49.39% View View

4:25 PM Kansas City 43 1255 53.96% San Francisco 43 1071 46.04% View View

1:00 PM Houston 47.5 1495 54.40% Dallas 47.5 1253 45.60% View View

8:30 PM Cincinnati 45.5 1308 55.49% New England 45.5 1049 44.51% View View

1:00 PM Baltimore 49 1600 57.25% Indianapolis 49 1195 42.75% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo 43 1609 57.63% Detroit 43 1183 42.37% View View

4:25 PM N.Y. Jets 44 1496 57.96% San Diego 44 1085 42.04% View View

4:05 PM Arizona 47 1558 58.40% Denver 47 1110 41.60% View View

1:00 PM St. Louis 48 1772 63.72% Philadelphia 48 1009 36.28% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta 50.5 1879 65.61% N.Y. Giants 50.5 985 34.39% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay 47.5 1884 67.29% New Orleans 47.5 916 32.71% View View

 

[CNOTES]

Late Games:


Arizona - 4:05 PM ET Denver -8 500 BLOW OUT

Denver - Under 47 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Kansas City - 4:25 PM ET Kansas City +4 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Francisco - Over 43 500 TRIPLE PLAY


N.Y. Jets - 4:25 PM ET N.Y. Jets +6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

San Diego - Under 44 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY NIGHT BAILOUT GAME:


Cincinnati - 8:30 PM ET Cincinnati -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

New England - Under 45.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY