NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 4
Sunday’s games
Falcons (2-1) vs Jaguars (1-2) (@ London)
— Falcons ran for 130-211 yards in their wins, 44 in their loss LW.
— Falcons are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 games away from home.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 9-9-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Atlanta has been outscored 30-19 in first half of games.
— Ridder is 4-3 as an NFL starting QB.
— Atlanta is 8-5-1 ATS in its last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
— Falcons are 7-5-3 ATS in last 15 games with a spread of 3 or less.
— Atlanta has converted only 12 of 39 third down plays.
— Under is 9-2 in their last eleven games overall.
— Jaguars lost their last two games, outscored 54-26.
— Last two games, Jaguars didn’t score a TD in the first half.
— Jacksonville is only 11-37 on third down in three games.
— Jaguars are 12-24-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a loss.
— Last 10 years, Jacksonville is 7-31 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +7 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Pederson is 57-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 13-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Falcons won last four series games, giving up 14.3 ppg.
— Last time Jaguars beat Atlanta was in 2007.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Dolphins (3-0) @ Bills (2-1)
— Miami won its first three games, scoring 36-24-70 points.
— Dolphins have scored 17 TD’s on 33 drives.
— Last week, Miami had five TD plays of 20+ yards.
— In three games, opponents are 19-42 on third down.
— since 2019, Dolphins are 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Miami is 22-11 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.
— Miami is 5-4-1 ATS in last ten AFC East road games.
— Tagovailoa is 24-13 as an NFL starter.
— Bills won last two games, outscoring foes 75-13.
— Bills converted 21-41 third down plays in three games.
— Bills are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Buffalo led first three games by 10-11-16 points at halftime.
— Under is 18-14 in Buffalo’s last 32 home games.
— Josh Allen is 58-29 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine AFC East home games.
— Bills are 20-13-1 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
— Buffalo won eight of last nine series games.
— Dolphins are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Buffalo.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Vikings (0-3) @ Panthers (0-3)
— Vikings lost their first three games, by 3-6-4 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Minnesota has turned ball over nine times already (minus-7).
— Vikings are 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games on natural grass.
— Since 2013, Vikings are 42-24-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Minnesota has given up eight TD’s on opponents’ last 22 drives.
— Cousins is 73-69-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— NFC North teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Unclear which QB will start; check status (Dalton threw for 334 yards LW).
— Carolina lost first three games, scoring 10-17-27 points.
— First three games. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8/5.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Panthers were 10-19 on third down LW (9-28 in first two games).
— Opponents are 12-37 on third down this year.
— Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
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— Panthers have been outscored 56-31 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 17-24-2 ATS in last 43 games coming off a loss.
— Minnesota won four of last five series games.
— Vikings are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Charlotte.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Broncos (0-3) @ Bears (0-3)
— Broncos lost 70-20 LW, giving up 10 TD’s on 13 drives.
— Broncos gave up 105 points in their last two games.
— Denver lost its first two games by a combined three points.
— since 2019, Broncos are 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Denver lost 14 of its last 17 games SU.
— Last two years, under is 11-6 in Broncos’ last 17 road games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-74-1 as an NFL starter, 4-14 with Denver.
— AFC West teams are 3-6 ATS outside the division.
— Not sure how anyone could lay 3.5 points with Denver right now.
— Chicago lost its first three games, giving up 35.3 ppg.
— Opponents have scored 11 TDs on 31 drives.
— Bears are 9-28 SU/12-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is 13-38 on 3rd down, averaged 4.6/4.8/3.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Chicago is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Fields is 5-23 SU as an NFL starter.
— Bears are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
— Bears are 13-24-3 ATS in last 40 games coming off a loss.
— NFC North teams are 2-6 ATS outside the division.
— Denver is 3-2 SU in last five series games.
— Last four meetings were all decided by 3 or less points.
— Teams split last two games played in Chicago.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Ravens (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)
— Ravens went 3/out on 7 of 14 drives LW in upset loss to Indy.
— Ravens are 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
— Baltimore converted 23 of their first 45 3rd down plays.
— Ravens are 14-4-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Ravens are 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 34 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 48-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 14-10 in their last 24 road games.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26 in their loss.
— Cleveland’s offense gave up two defensive TD’s in 26-22 loss to Steelers.
— First three games, Cleveland outgained opponents 1,099-501.
— Browns have 64 first downs, their opponents only 21.
— Last 3+ years, Cleveland is 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Stefanski, Cleveland is 9-16 ATS coming off a win.
— Opponents have converted only 8-41 third down plays.
— Watson is 34-31 as an NFL starter, 5-4 for Cleveland.
— Home team won last five series games.
— Ravens lost 13-3/24-22 in last two visits to Lake Erie.
— Four of last five meetings stayed under the total.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
— Ravens were the Cleveland Browns until 1996.
Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (1-2)
— Steelers won last two games, scoring 26-23 points.
— Steelers have seven takeaways in last two games (+4)
— Pittsburgh is 3-9 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
— This is first time since 2020 that the Steelers are road favorite.
— Steelers have been outgained 1,161-827 this season.
— Pitt is 27-14-1 ATS in last 42 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 9-6 as an NFL starter.
— AFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Texans averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 37-17 upset win.
— Texans are 8-11-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— First three weeks, Houston ran ball for only 70 yards/game.
— Opponents have converted 21-43 third down plays.
— since 2013, Houston is 13-17-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Stroud is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
— Houston is 10-7-2 ATS last 19 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Pittsburgh won five of last six meetings.
— Steelers covered two of last three visits to Houston.
Rams (1-2) @ Colts (2-1)
— Rams led or were tied in second half of all three games.
— Rams were outscored 26-16 in 2nd half the last two weeks.
— Rams were 1-11 on 3rd down LW, were 18-32 in first two games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 9-8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Stafford is 94-106-1 as an NFL starter, 20-13 with the Rams.
— Rams are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under McVay, Rams are 20-13-2 ATS in games coming of a loss.
— Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 16-17-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Colts won road games last two weeks, scoring 31-22 points.
— Both Colt games this season went over the total.
— Road team won all three Colts’ games TY.
— Colts are 7-11 ATS in last 18 home games.
— Last 3+ years, Indy is 13-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Colts are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Minshew is 9-16 as an NFL starter,.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Rams won last three series games by average score of 37-14.
— Favorites covered four of last six series games.
— Last five meetings went over the total.
Buccaneers (2-1) @ Saints (2-1)
— Short week for Tampa Bay after Monday night loss to Eagles.
— Bucs converted 19 of first 42 third down plays.
— Bucs are 7-13-4 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Buccaneers were 0-8-1 ATS LY in games coming off a loss.
— Bucs have 7 takeaways in three games (+5 turnovers)
— Under is 12-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 17 road games.
— Mayfield is 34-40 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Opponents’ team total is 2-0-1 under this year.
— QB Carr hurt his shoulder LW (check status): Winston is backup.
— Saints’ first three games were decided by total of five points.
— In three games, Saints’ defense allowed three TD’s on 31 drives.
— Opponents have converted only 6-26 on third down.
— Saints scored 4 TD’s, tried 7 FG’s on their 30 drives.
— Last 2+ years, Saints are 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last five years, NO is 5-9-1 ATS in NFC South home games.
— Under is 11-7 in Saints’ last 18 home games.
— Saints have outscored opponents 29-9 in first half.
— Saints won eight of last 12 series games (0-2 last year).
— Buccaneers are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to New Orleans.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Commanders (2-1) @ Eagles (3-0)
— Washington gave up 33-37 points the last two weeks.
— Commanders have converted only 8-31 third down plays.
— Last 2+ years, Washington is 5-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Washington has 6 TD drives; only one was 60+ yards long.
— Last six years, Commanders are 7-11 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Under is 12-4 in Washington’s last 16 games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 3-1 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 7-11 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
— Short week for Eagles after their win in Tampa Monday.
— Eagles won first three games (2-0-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25 points.
— Philly has 8 takeaways in three games (+4 turnovers)
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 28-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Eagles ran ball for 259-201 yards the last two weeks.
— Hurts is 28-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 13-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.
— Eagles are 9-3 in last 12 series games (3-3 in last six)
— Philly is 4-2 ATS in last six visits here.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
— NFL-wide, home teams are 5-10 ATS in divisional games.
Bengals (1-2) @ Titans (1-2)
— Short week for Cincinnati after Monday night’s win.
— QB Burrow (calf) is hampered by calf injury; lot fewer long passes.
— Cincy averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-3.
— Bengals have only three TD’s on 32 drives this season.
— Bengals gave up 384 rushing yards in first games, only 71 Monday.
— Cincinnati is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games on natural grass.
— Bengals are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Cincinnati was 9-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Bengals are 4-3-1 ATS in last eight games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 11-5-1 in their last seventeen road games.
— Titans scored 27 points in its win; they didn’t score a TD in either loss.
— Tennessee lost nine of its last ten games SU.
— Titans are 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
— Titans are minus-2 in turnovers (2-4) so far this season.
— First drive of their games, Titans ran 16 plays for only 22 yards.
— Titans are 28-18-2 ATS in last 48 games coming off a loss.
— Tannehill is 81-70 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Titans are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Cincinnati won seven of last nine series games.
— Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in last five visits to Nashville.
Raiders (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)
— Garoppolo is in concussion protocol (check status)
— Brian Hoyer is backup QB- 16-24 as starter, but last win was in 2016.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18 points in first three games.
— Las Vegas has scored only 34 points on eight red zone drives.
— Raiders are 15-9 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
— Last 3+ years, Las Vegas is 10-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Garoppolo is 41-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Opponents have converted 18 of 39 third down plays.
— Chargers scored 34-24-28 points in first three games, all close games.
— Last two games, Chargers converted only 7-25 third down plays.
— Chargers are 9-20-1 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Bolts were 4-2 ATS in AFC West home games.
— since 2013, Chargers are 31-37-6 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Herbert is 26-27 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers have scored 10 TD’s on 31 drives, allowed 10 TD’s on 31 drives.
— Over is 11-7-1 in their last 19 home games.
— Chargers won last week, despite losing field position by 16 yards.
— Raiders are 5-3 SU in last eight series games.
— Chargers lost 27-20/35-32 in last two visits to Las Vegas.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Patriots (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1)
— Patriots are off to 1-2 start, scoring 20-17-15 points.
— In last week’s 15-10 win, Patriots never got in Jets’ red zone.
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-27 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last two years, Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Mac Jones is 17-18 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots are 7-5-3 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Last two years, Patriots are 9-7 ATS in games coming off a win.
— AFC East teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 2-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Dallas only scored 13 points in 5 trips to red zone in LW’s 28-16 loss.
— Cowboys won first two games by combined 70-10.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 19-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Cowboys are 28-46 on third down, opponents are 11-36.
— Last two years, Dallas was 8-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Cowboys outgained first three opponents, 1,063-786.
— QB Prescott is 65-41 as an NFL starter.
— Cowboys have six takeaways in three games (+4 turnovers).
— NFC East teams are 4-5 ATS outside the division.
— New England won five of last six series games.
— Patriots won/covered their last two visits to Dallas.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Cardinals (1-2) @ 49ers (3-0)
— Arizona is 1-2, but they led all three games at halftime.
— Cardinals are 3-0 ATS, outscoring foes 54-20 in first half.
— Arizona has been outscored 47-18 in 2nd half.
— Cardinals have lost 13 of last 16 games SU (7-6 ATS in last 13).
— Cardinals are 17-6-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
— QB Dobbs is 1-4 as an NFL starter; he is 59-82/549 passing, with no INTs.
— Arizona is 14-13 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, Cardinals scored six TD’s, tried five FG’s on 18 drives.
— Since 2013, Arizona is 20-9-1 ATS in NFC West road games.
— San Francisco scored 30-30-30 points in winning first three games (2-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 36-12 in 2nd half.
— San Francisco has run ball for 188-159-141 yards.
— First three games, 49ers won field position by 10-8-4 yards.
— 49ers have scored 67 points in 13 trips to red zone.
— SF is 8-1 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers are 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +20 in turnovers (+6 in three games TY)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 10-1 as NFL starter.
— 49ers are 5-3 in last eight meetings.
— Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven visits here.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.
— NFL-wide, road teams are 10-5 ATS in divisional games.
Chiefs (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)
— Last two games, Chiefs allowed one TD on 21 drives.
— KC is 10-13-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs have scored 69 points in 11 red zone drives.
— KC had 12 penalties for 94 yards in Week 2, only 3-15 last week.
— Chiefs have outscored opponents 55-13 in first half.
— Chiefs are 15-23-1 ATS in last 39 games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 77-20 as an NFL starter- he’s never played in this stadium.
— Opponents have converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 2-7 ATS outside the division.
— Jets lost 30-10/15-10 last two weeks, with #2 QB Wilson playing.
— Wilson is 8-16 as an NFL starter.
— First three games, Jets averaged 4.7/5.0/3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two games, Jets ran ball 38 times for 102 yards.
— Jets were outgained 740-386 in last two games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 6-10 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 10-12 ATS in games coming off a loss
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten home games.
— AFC East teams are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Home team won last eight series games.
— Chiefs lost last four road series games; their last win here was in 2002.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Monday’s game
Seahawks (2-1) @ Giants (1-2)
— Seahawks won their last two games, scoring 37-37 points.
— Seattle have converted only 10-31 third down plays.
— Seahawks gave up 984 PY in first three games.
— Seahawks are 17-12-3 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— First three games, Seattle was outgained 1,222-998.
— Geno Smith is 24-30 as an NFL starter, 12-12 with Seattle.
— Smith played in this stadium for five years, starting 31 games.
— Last 3+ years, Seattle is 9-15 ATS coming off a win.
— Seattle is 18-20 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Giants have been outscored 63-6 in first half of their three games.
— Giants were held under 180 total yards in two of three games.
— Big Blue has only one takeaway in three games (minus-3 turnovers)
— Giants are 11-8 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Giants have been shut out in three of their six halves this season.
— Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 home games.
— Daniel Jones is 23-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 3-5 ATS outside the division.
— Seattle won five of last six series games.
— Seahawks won/covered last three visits here.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
