NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 3
Sunday’s games
Chargers (0-2) @ Vikings (0-2)
— Chargers scored 30-34-24 points in last three games, lost all three.
— Chargers lost last two weeks, by total of five points.
— Under Staley, Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bolts are 8-17-7 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Chargers are 13-19-1 ATS in last 33 games coming off a loss.
— Herbert is 25-27 as an NFL starter.
— Since 2017, Chargers are 14-9-3 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Over is 20-14 in their last 34 road games.
— Vikings lost first two games, by 3-6 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Vikings are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.
— In two games, Minnesota has run ball 26 times for only 69 yards.
— Since 2013, Vikings are 42-23-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last nine years, Minnesota is 26-12 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Cousins is 73-68-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Minnesota played on Thursday LW, had extra prep time for this.
— Vikings won/covered last three series games.
— Chargers lost 31-14/35-17 in last two visits to Minnesota.
— Three of last four meetings stayed under total.
Titans (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)
— Titans split their first two games, decided by total of four points.
— Last week’s win snapped an 8-game skid, going back to LY.
— Since 2018, Titans are 15-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Titans are minus-3 in turnovers (1-4) so far this season.
— First drive in Weeks 1-2, they ran 13 plays for only 15 yards.
— Last two years, Titans are 12-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Tannehill is 81-69 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Under is 7-2 in Titans’ last nine road games.
— Short week for Browns after Monday night’s loss in Pittsburgh.
— Cleveland’s offense gave up two defensive TD’s in 26-22 loss to Steelers.
— First two games, Cleveland outgained opponents 758-407.
— Browns ran ball for 394 yards in Weeks 1-2, had only six plays of 20+ yards.
— Last three years, Cleveland is 7-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Stefanski, Cleveland is 10-11-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Opponents have converted only 6-29 third down plays.
— Watson is 33-31 as an NFL starter, 4-4 for Cleveland.
— Tennessee won three of last four series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Texans (0-2) @ Jaguars (1-1)
— Texans lost their first two games, by 16-11 points.
— Texans are 16-24-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a loss.
— First two games, Houston lost field position by 12-9 yards.
— Opponents have converted 16-30 third down plays.
— Texans have scored only 19 points on six red zone drives.
— Stroud is 0-2 as an NFL starter.
— Last two years. Houston is 5-1 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— Jaguars split their first two games (favorites covered both).
— Chiefs outgained Jags 399-271 LW, in 17-9 KC win.
— Jacksonville is only 6-24 on third down in two games.
— Jaguars are 12-23-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a loss.
— Lawrence is 13-23 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Last 2+ years, under is 14-3 in their home games.
— Pederson is 57-49-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— After this game, Jaguars head to England for two weeks.
— Houston won nine of last ten series games (7-3 ATS)
— Texans are 7-2 ATS in last nine visits to Jacksonville.
— Under is 8-3 in last eleven meetings.
Patriots (0-2) @ Jets (1-1)
— Patriots lost first two home games, 25-20/24-17.
— Since Brady left, NE is 25-27 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— New England is 5-2-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
— Mac Jones is 16-18 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots are 2-3 SU/ATS in last five road openers.
— Under is 3-1 in New England’s last four road openers.
— Patriots are 4-5 ATS in last nine AFC East road games
— Jets got hammered 30-10 LW with #2 QB Wilson playing.
— Wilson is 8-15 as an NFL starter.
— First two games, Jets averaged 4.7/5.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Jets were outgained 382-215 in Dallas LW; turned ball over 4 times.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 6-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last 5+ years, Jets are 5-11 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 10-11 ATS in games coming off a loss
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
— New England won last fifteen series games (8-2 ATS last 10).
— Patriots are 4-1 ATS in last five visits here.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Saints (2-0) @ Packers (1-1)
— Short week for Saints after Monday’s win in Charlotte.
— In two games, Saints’ defense allowed one TD on 21 drives.
— Opponents have converted only 6-26 on third down.
— Saints held first two opponents to 3.9/4.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Since 2018, Saints are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— NO is 19-11-2 ATS in last 32 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last 2+ years, under is 11-6 in Saints’ road games.
— QB Carr is 65-80 as an NFL starter.
— Saints are 24-12 ATS in last 36 games on natural grass.
— Packers split first two games, with home team winning both.
— Green Bay was outgained 446-224 in Atlanta LW.
— Falcons outscored Pack 13-0 over final 12:00 of LW’s 25-24 win.
— GB is 13-9-2 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Packers are 13-4 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Green Bay has 5 TD’s/FG in six trips to red zone.
— Jordan Love is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 11-7 in their last 18 home games.
— New Orleans won three of last four series games.
— Saints are 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Lambeau.
— Over is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
Broncos (0-2) @ Dolphins (2-0)
— Denver lost its first two games by a combined three points.
— Broncos missed a PAT in both games, which proved costly.
— Broncos has only six plays of 20+ yards in two games.
— Denver lost 13 of its last 16 games SU.
— Since 2018, Broncos are 16-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Denver is 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven road openers.
— Last two years, under was 11-5 in Broncos’ road games.
— Russell Wilson is 117-73-1 as an NFL starter, 4-13 with Denver.
— Miami won its first two games, scoring 36-24 points.
— Miami already has 13 plays of 20+ yards.
— In two games, opponents are 16-30 on third down.
— since 2020, Dolphins are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— Miami is 21-11 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
— Miami is 4-2 ATS in last six home openers.
— Over is 12-2 in their last 14 home openers.
— Tagovailoa is 23-13 as an NFL starter.
— Denver won three of last four series games.
— Broncos covered once in its last four visits to Miami.
Bills (1-1) @ Commanders (2-0)
— Bills ran for 183 yards, outgained Raiders 450-240 in LW’s 38-10 win.
— Bills converted 12-26 third down plays in two games.
— Bills are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite.
— Buffalo led first two games by 10-11 points at halftime.
— Under is 8-2 in Buffalo’s last ten road games.
— Josh Allen is 57-29 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 games on natural grass.
— Last four years, Bills are 11-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— Washington is 2-0 for first time since 2011.
— Commanders have scored 41 points in five trips to red zone.
— Washington is 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.
— Three of their four TD drives in Denver LW were less than 60 yards.
— Commanders are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC teams.
— Under is 11-4 in Washington’s last 15 games.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 3-0 as NFL starter.
— Since 2018, Washington is 19-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Bills won/covered five of last six series games.
— Buffalo split last two visits here; their last visit was 2015.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Falcons (2-0) @ Lions (1-1)
— Falcons won first two games, holding foes to 281-224 yards.
— Atlanta has scored 43 points in eight trips to red zone.
— Last three years, Falcons were 12-9 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 5-7-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Ridder is 4-2 as an NFL starting QB.
— Falcons lost last five road openers SU (2-4 ATS in last six)
— Over is 3-0 in their last three road openers.
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten games overall.
— Detroit split first two games, a 1-point win, an OT loss.
— Lions already have 11 plays of 20+ yards.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 24-11-1 ATS, 4-2 as home favorite.
— Detroit defense has allowed 44 points in eight red zone drives.
— Lions scored 10 points in last 8:13 of regulation to force OT last week.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 12-9 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Goff is 57-49-1 as an NFL starter, 13-19-1 with the Lions.
— Over is 22-10-1 in Detroit’s last 33 home games.
— Atlanta won five of last seven series games.
— Falcons covered five of last six visits to Detroit.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Colts (1-1) @ Ravens (2-0)
— QB Richardson had concussion LW; does he start or Minshew?
— Both Colt games this season went over the total.
— Colts lost 11 of their last 14 games SU.
— Colts are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Last three years, Indy was 12-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Over is 14-11 in their last 25 road games.
— Rookie QB Richardson is 1-1 as an NFL starter, Minshew is 8-16.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Ravens won their first two games, scoring 25-27 points.
— Baltimore converted 17 of their first 29 3rd down plays.
— Ravens are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Ravens scored 48 points on their first eight red zone drives.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only two TD’s on 19 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 48-19 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Last 2+ years, Ravens are 8-11 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 8-1 in their last nine home games.
— Ravens won last three series games, by 6-14-7 points.
— Colts covered 11 of last 12 meetings.
— Under is 7-1 in last eight series games.
— Colts called Baltimore home until 1984.
Panthers (0-2) @ Seahawks (1-1)
— Unclear which QB will start; check status.
— Carolina lost first two games, scoring 10-17 points.
— First two games. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8 yards per pass attempt.
— Panthers were 9-28 on third down in first two games.
— Carolina is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
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— Panthers are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games on artificial turf.
— Carolina is 17-23-2 ATS in last 42 games, coming off a loss.
— Under is 20-15 in Carolina’s last 35 games.
— Seahawks won OT game in Detroit LW, after blowing 10-point lead in last 8:13.
— Seattle has run for only 167 yards on 43 carries, are 7-20 on third down.
— Seahawks gave up 650 PY in first two games, but that was vs Stafford/Goff.
— Last 2+ years, Seahawks are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— First two games, Seattle was outgained 844-573.
— Geno Smith is 23-30 as an NFL starter, 11-12 with Seattle.
— Last 3+ years, Seattle is 8-15 ATS coming off a win.
— Seattle is 17-20 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— Seahawks won seven of last nine series games.
— Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last six visits to Seattle.
— Last five meetings went over the total.
Bears (0-2) @ Chiefs (1-1)
— QB Fields publicly criticized coaches during week; not ideal.
— Chicago DC Williams quit this week; no one is saying why.
— Bears are 9-27 SU/12-22-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is 9-26 on 3rd down, averaged 4.6/4.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two years, Chicago is 5-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Fields is 5-22 SU as an NFL starter.
— Bears are 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC opponents.
— Bears are 13-23-3 ATS in last 39 games coming off a loss.
— Chiefs split first two games, scoring 20-17 points.
— KC is 10-14 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs have scored 34 points in six red zone drives.
— Kansas City outgained Jags 399-271 LW, but had 12 penalties for 94 yards.
— Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
— Chiefs are 14-23-1 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 76-20 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 16-9-1 in Chiefs’ last 26 home games.
— Chiefs are 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS in last five series games.
— Bears split their last two visits to Arrowhead.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.
Cowboys (2-0) @ Cardinals (0-2)
— Dallas won their first two games by a combined 70-10.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 19-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Cowboys are 19-30 on third down, opponents are 6-26.
— Dallas is 15-9 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
— Cowboys outgained first two opponents, 647-386.
— QB Prescott is 65-40 as an NFL starter.
— Cowboys have six takeaways in two games (+5 turnovers).
— Arizona blew 28-7 2nd half lead in last week’s home loss to Giants.
— Cardinals lost first two games, but covered both games.
— Arizona led their first two games at halftime (outscored 41-11 in 2nd half)
— Cardinals have lost 9 in row, 13 of last 15 games SU (6-6 ATS in last 12).
— Last 3+ years, Cardinals are 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— QB Dobbs is 0-4 as an NFL starter; he is 42-61/360 passing, with no INTs.
— Arizona is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 10-14 in their last 34 home games.
— Cardinals won/covered six of last seven series games.
— Cowboys lost three of last four visits to the desert.
— Under is 4-0-1 in last five meetings.
Steelers (1-1) @ Raiders (1-1)
— Short week/long travel for Steelers after their Monday nite game.
— Pittsburgh scored two defensive TD’s in Monday’s 26-22 win.
— Steelers were outgained 799-494 in first two games.
— Pittsburgh has run ball 31 times for only 96 yards.
— First series of game, Steelers have run six plays for 2 yards, with a turnover.
— Pitt is 26-14-1 ATS in last 41 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Pittsburgh is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 8-6 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders split pair of road games, scoring 17-10 points.
— Las Vegas has scored only 24 points on six red zone drives.
— Since 2017, Raiders are 10-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Raiders are 11-13 ATS in last 24 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Las Vegas was 10-14 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Garoppolo is 41-18 as an NFL starting QB.
— Las Vegas won/covered four of last six home openers.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine home openers.
— Raiders won six of last nine series games.
— Steelers are 0-4 ATS in last four road series games.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Monday’s games
Eagles (2-0) @ Buccaneers (2-0)
— Eagles won first two games, scoring 25-34 points.
— Philly played last Thursday, had extra time to prep for this.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 27-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles ran ball for 259 yards LW, outgained Vikings, 430-374
— Hurts is 27-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 12-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.
— Tampa Bay won first two games, outrushing foes 193-108.
— Bucs converted 14 of first 32 third down plays.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 9-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Buccaneers are 16-17-3 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
— Bucs threw for 317 yards LW, gained 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last 4+ years, over is 18-13 in Tampa Bay home games.
— Mayfield is 34-39 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Tampa Bay hasn’t been 3-0 since 2005.
— Buccaneers won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Eagles are 3-3 ATS in last six visits to Tampa.
— Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Rams (1-1) @ Bengals (0-2)
— Rams split pair of division games to start season.
— Rookie WR Nacua has caught 25 passes for 266 yards.
— Rams are 18-32 on third down in first two games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 9-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Stafford is 94-105-1 as an NFL starter, 20-12 with the Rams.
— Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under McVay, Rams are 20-13-1 ATS in games coming of a loss.
— Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine road games.
— Unclear how healthy QB Burrow (calf) is; he didn’t play well LW.
— Bengals lost their first two games; they were outgained, 765-434
— Cincy averaged 2.0/5.1 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-2.
— Cincinnati went 3/out on 10 of 20 drives so far.
— Bengals are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Cincinnati is 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
— Bengals are 14-7 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 10-6-1 in their last seventeen home games.
— Teams split last six meetings.
— Rams (-4.5) beat Cincinnati 23-20 in Super Bowl two years ago.