NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 15
Thursday’s game
Chargers (5-8) @
Raiders (5-8)
— Chargers lost four of last five games, scoring 10-6-7 in last three.
— Chargers are 0-5 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— QB Herbert (finger) is out for year; Easton Stick gets first NFL start here.
— Chargers have two TD’s on their last 33 drives.
— Bolts are 0-4 ATS in last four games as an underdog.
— LA is 1-6 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Chargers have 11 takeaways (+8) in wins, four (minus-8) in losses.
— Opponents are 18-70 (25.7%) on 3rd down in LA wins, 44-103 (42.7%) in losses.
— Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Charger games.
— Chargers are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
— Team total: under 4-0 last four. Opponents’ team total: under 7-6
— Las Vegas lost its last three games, scoring 13-17-0 points.
— In those games, Raiders were 14-42 on third down.
— Last three games, Raiders were outscored 26-3 in second half.
— Last four games, Raiders scored 4 TD’s on 43 drives.
— Home team won 8 of Raiders’ last 10 games (7-2-1 ATS).
— Las Vegas is 7-3 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite (3-1 TY)
— Raiders are 12-7 ATS in last 19 AFC West home games.
— Under is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 12-18 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
— Las Vegas is 4-2 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Team total: under 12-1. Opponents’ team total: under 9-4
— Chargers (-5) beat Raiders 24-17 at home in Week 4.
— Raiders were 1-11 on 3rd down, minus-2 in turnovers that game.
— Chargers won three of last four series games.
— Bolts lost 27-20/35-32 in last two visits to Las Vegas.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Saturday’s games
Vikings (7-6) @
Bengals (7-6)
— 4th-string QB Mullens (5-12 as NFL starter) gets nod here.
— He’ll be Vikings’ 4th starting QB in 14 games this year.
— Vikings lost two of last three games, scoring 20-10-3 points.
— Last two games, Minnesota scored one TD on 21 drives.
— Last seven games, Minnesota is 6-2 SU/6-1-1 ATS
— Minnesota is 6-6 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)
— Vikings are 6-3 when they allow less than 27 points.
— Minnesota has lost field position battle in 12 of 13 games.
— Vikings are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a bye
— Under is 9-2 in Minnesota’s last eleven games.
— NFC North road underdogs are 4-8 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-6. Opponents’ team total: under 9-3-1
— Backup QB Browning has completed 75.5% of passes (15 TD’s, 6 INT’s)
— Bengals won their last two games, scoring 34-34 points.
— starting QB Burrow is out for the year.
— Bengals are 6-1 giving up 20 or less points, 1-5 allowing more than 2o.
— Last nine games, Bengals are +7 in turnovers. (15-8)
— Cincinnati is 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Cincinnati is 17-10-2 ATS in last 29 home games.
— Bengals are 12-3 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win (3-2 TY).
— Bengals are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games vs NFC opponents.
— Four of Bengals’ last five games went over total.
— Team total: under 8-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-6
— AFC North home favorites are 12-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Home team won the five series games over the last 20 years.
— Vikings lost last three visits to Cincinnati, by 29-28-3 points.
— Under was 3-2 in those five games.
Steelers (7-6) @
Colts (7-6)
— Steelers lost three of last four games, scoring 10-16-10-18 points.
— They fired their offensive coordinator two weeks ago.
— Steelers are 3-2 SU/ATS on road this year.
— Steelers are 21-12 ATS last 33 games as a road underdog.
— Last four games, Pittsburgh was outscored 41-16 in first half.
— Last two games, Pittsburgh converted 7-25 on third down.
— Last 12 games, Steelers have a +11 turnover margin.
— Steelers are 13-8 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 10-3 in Steeler games.
— Backup QB Trubisky is 31-27 as NFL starter, 2-4 with Pittsburgh.
— AFC North road underdogs are 4-2 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 7-6
— Indianapolis won/covered four of last five games.
— Last three games, Colts converted only 8-36 on third down.
— Colts are 0-6 giving up 29+ points, 7-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.
— QB Minshew is 13-20 as an NFL starter, 5-4 TY.
— Colts are 2-4 ATS in last six games as a home favorite.
— In its last five games, Indy was +6 in turnovers (10-4)
— Colts are 11-13 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 6-2 in Indy’s last eight games.
— Colts are 38-23-2 ATS in last 63 games coming off a loss.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— AFC South home teams are 8-7-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 9-3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 7-6
— Patriots won last eight series games (6-2 ATS)
— New England won last three visits to Indiana, by 21-3-7 points.
— Last three meetings went over the total.
Broncos (7-6) @
Lions (9-4)
— Broncos are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
— Three of those six wins were by 1 or 2 points.
— Last six games, Denver is +9 in turnovers.
— Broncos outscored last six opponents 74-46 in first half.
— Denver is 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS on road this season.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Last four weeks, Denver converted only 16-54 on third down.
— Broncos are 7-14 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Denver is 18-14-1 ATS last 33 games as a road underdog.
— Detroit is 3-6 ATS in last nine games vs NFC opponents.
— Seven of last eight Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Russell Wilson is 124-77-1 as an NFL starter, 11-17 with Denver.
— AFC West underdogs are 3-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-6. Opponents’ team total: under 8-5
— Lions lost two of last three games, after an 8-2 start.
— Lions gave up 37-38-29-28 points in their four losses.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 7-4 ATS as home favorite (3-3 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 15-9 ATS coming off a loss (3-0 TY).
— Under Campbell, Lions are 31-15-1 ATS overall.
— Last three games, Detroit is minus-6 in turnovers (4-10)
— Last five games, Lions ran ball for 158 yards/game.
— Opponents converted 16 of last 37 third down plays (43.2%).
— Goff is 65-52-1 as an NFL starter, 21-21-1 with the Lions.
— over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
— Lions are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
— NFC North favorites are 7-5 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-6. Opponents’ team total: over 8-5
— Denver won last three series games, by 12-10-28 points.
— Broncos split last two visits to Detroit; last one was in 2015.
— Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Sunday’s games
Falcons (6-7) @
Panthers (1-12)
— Falcons lost four of their last six games.
— Last two games, Atlanta converted 9-27 on third down.
— underdogs covered eight of Atlanta’s last nine games.
— Atlanta is 2-4 SU/ATS on the road this season.
— under Smith, Falcons are 4-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last four games, Falcons were 30-67 (44.8%) on third down.
— Last three games, Atlanta is +3 in turnovers (6-3)
— Atlanta is 18-24-3 in last 45 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 5-2 ATS in last seven NFC South road games.
— Ridder is 8-7 as an NFL starting QB.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Atlanta games.
— Team total: under 6-6-1. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5-2
— Carolina lost its last six games (2-4 ATS)
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants two weeks ago.
— Carolina is 1-4 SU/1-3-1 ATS at home, losing by 3-8-14-23 points.
— Last nine games, Panthers were outscored 140-52 in first half.
— In seven post-bye games, Panthers scored six TD’s on 71 drives.
— In seven post-bye games, Carolina scored 12.1 ppg.
— Carolina is 10-20-1 ATS in last 31 games following a loss.
— Young’s nine starts (1-11), Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started (5.5 ypa)
— Carolina gained 303 yards LW, its most since Week 5 (ran for 204 yards).
— Panthers are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven NFC South home games.
— You’re reading
armadillosports.com
— League-wise, divisional home underdogs are 10-13-2 ATS.
— Team total: under 9-4. Opponents’ team total: over 8-5
— Falcons (-3.5) beat Carolina 24-10 at home way back in Week 1.
— Teams split last six series games, after a 10-2 Atlanta run.
— Falcons are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Charlotte.
— under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Bears (5-8) @
Browns (8-5)
— Chicago won/covered three of last four games.
— Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games.
— Last five games, Bears ran ball for 144.4 yards/game.
— Chicago is 2-7 when it scores less than 28 points
— In Fields starts, Bears are 51-124 (41.1%) on third down.
— Fields is 8-26 as an NFL starter.
— Bears haven’t led at halftime since Week 7 vs Las Vegas.
— last 2+ years, Bears are 14-33 SU/19-26-2 ATS.
— Chicago is 4-3 ATS as road underdogs TY.
— Chicago is 3-9 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
— Five of their six games stayed under the total.
— Bears are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: under 7-6. Opponents’ team total: over 7-6
— Flacco has completed 55.1% of passes (5 TD’s, 2 INTs).
— Flacco is 100-82 as NFL starter, 19th NFL QB ever with 100+ wins.
— Browns have started four different QB’s this season.
— Cleveland is 6-3 SU in last nine games (4-2 ATS in last six)
— Last four games, Browns were outscored 68-35 in second half.
— Last four weeks, Browns 17-64 (26.6%) on third down.
— Last week, Cleveland had three TD plays of 30+ yards.
— Browns are 6-14-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Browns are 5-0 giving up less than 24 points, 3-5 allowing 24+.
— Cleveland won/covered six of seven home games TY.
— Opponents have converted only 49-169 (29.0%) third down plays.
— over is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games.
— AFC North teams are 21-15-1 outside the division.
— Team total: over 9-3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 7-6
— Chicago won four of last six series games.
— Bears lost two of last three visits to Cleveland.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Buccaneers (6-7) @
Packers (6-7)
— Bucs won/covered three of last five games (5-2 ATS last seven)
— Bucs are 1-6 when they allow more than 18 points.
— Bucs are 5-1 when they allow less than 18 points.
— Tampa Bay is 3-4 SU/6-1 ATS on road this year.
— Bucs have 19 takeaways in 13 games (+6 turnovers)
— Last four games, opponents were 14-51 (27.5%) on third down.
— Buccaneers are 12-10 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Over is 3-0 in Tampa Bay’s last three games.
— Last three weeks, Tampa Bay ran ball for 133.7 yards/game.
— Mayfield is 38-46 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: under 6-6-2. Opponents’ team total: under 7-6-1
— Short week for Packers after Monday night’s loss in New Jersey,
— Packers won four of last six games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay outscored last three foes 49-19 in first half.
— Last three games, Packers are +4 in turnovers (6-2)
— Packers won/covered their last three home games.
— Last five games, Green Bay is 37-79 (46.8%) on third down.
— Packers are 20-13 ATS last 33 games as a home favorite.
— Jordan Love is 6-8 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 15-7 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss (2-3 TY).
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Last five weeks, Green Bay gave up 170.4 rushing yards/game.
— Team total: over 7-6. Opponents’ team total: under 8-4-1
— Packers won four of last six series games.
— Buccaneers are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Green Bay.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
