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Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack:

Six NFL head coaches fired during their first season on the job:
2023- Frank Reich, Panthers
2022- Nathaniel Hackett, Broncos
2021- Urban Meyer, Jaguars
2007- Bobby Petrino, Falcons
1978- Pete McCulley, 49ers
1976- Lou Holtz, Jets

Quote of the Day
“Your happiness is your responsibility.”
Anonymous

Tuesday’s quiz
Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman played college football at which two schools?

Monday’s quiz
Marshall Thundering Herd is the college football team, with minimum of 10 bowls played, that has the best winning percentage in bowl games— they’re 13-5 (72.2 winning %) in bowls.

Sunday’s quiz
Tennessee Titans used to be known as the Houston Oilers.

*****************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

Bears 12, Vikings 10
Chicago kicked a 30-yard FG with 0:13 left for the win.
Bears had five drives in 2nd half: kicked 3 FG’s, lost 2 fumbles.
DJ Moore caught 11 passes for 114 of Chicago’s 217 passing yards.
QB Fields ran ball 12 times for 59 yards, 24 yards more than any other Bear.
Dobbs threw 17-yard TD pass with 5:54 left, Minnesota’s only TD.
Vikings’ first four drives: 16 plays, 44 yards, 2 INTs, no points.
Chicago was 8-18 on third down, Vikings 2-9.
Under is 8-2 in Minnesota’s last ten games.

— Before Monday, NFL teams were 0-28 this season when they didn’t score a TD.
Now, they’re 1-28.

— So far this year in the NFL……..
divisional home favorites are 18-15 ATS
divisional home underdogs are 9-14-1 ATS
Overall, divisional favorites are 32-24-1 ATS

— Carolina Panthers fired coach Frank Reich after their 1-10 start; two ofter offensive assistant coaches were also told to take a hike.
Panthers are averaging:
15.7 points/game (29th)
4.1 yards per play (T31st)
Panthers are converting 37.2% of their third down opportunities (20th).
You play a rookie QB, your job is in jeopardy; they should have sat Bryce Young, let him learn while watching and played veteran Andy Dalton. Maybe they’d still have their jobs now.
Carolina fired Matt Rhule last year, with $40M left on his contract.
Carolina fired Reich Monday, with $30M left on his contract.
Panthers owner David Tepper is richest owner in the NFL, but he isn’t the most patient one.

— If the 2024 NFL Draft was today……..
1) Bears (from Carolina)
2) Cardinals
3) Patriots
4) Bears
5) Commanders
6) Giants

— Denver Broncos have won five games in a row; in their last four games, Denver has 14 takeaways- they’re +11 in turnovers in those four games.

— In his career, Bills’ QB Josh Allen is 0-6 in overtime games.

— NFC South standings:
Falcons 5-6
Saints 5-6
Buccaneers 4-7
Panthers 1-10
If the Wild Card playoffs were this week, Dallas would be a significant road favorite at whatever team wins the NFC South.

— NFL Draft is a fascinating process; some teams are just so much better at it than others. Chargers’ RB Austin Ekeler is a really good RB, but he wasn’t drafted; he went to college at Western Colorado, which makes you wonder what the Broncos’ scouts are thinking about, such a good player at a D-II school in Denver’s backyard.

— TV show of the day: The White Shadow (1978)- An NBA player retires from the pro game and gets a job as a basketball coach in an inner-city high school.
Ken Howard played the coach; he was excellent in this role. Basketball scenes were well done.
Creator of the show was Bruce Paltrow, Gwyneth Paltrow’s father.

— Tough week for college football coaches:
Indiana fired its coach; he got $15.5M to go away.
New Mexico fired its coach, who they praised in a statement, but when you go 11-32, they tell you to take a hike, even if you’re a New Mexico alumnus.
Middle Tennessee fired its longtime coach after going 3-8 this year, the Blue Raiders’ third losing season in the last five years. The coach was 113-111 in 18 seasons at MTSU, but this is a “what have you done for me lately?” world, and MTSU hasn’t done much lately.
Houston fired its coach, who had three losing seasons in his five years as the Cougars’ head coach, going 31-28 overall. Houston went 4-8 this year, their first year in the Big X; it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, than a smaller fish in a big pond.
Texas-El Paso fired its coach, after he went 20-49 in six seasons with the Miners.
Texas A&M hired Duke coach Mike Elko to fill their coaching vacancy; he was 16-9 in two years as Duke’s coach- before that, he was the defensive coordinator at Texas A&M. Aggies just fired their head coach, even though he had a 45-25 record.
Mississippi State hired Oklahoma OC Jeff Lebby; since 2019, his offenses have scored 50+ points 14 times, most of anyone in the country during that time. Lebby used to be OC at Ole Miss, the Bulldogs’ biggest rival.

— Random trivia: Back in the mid-1950’s, at Van Nuys High School in Los Angeles, Robert Redford, Don Drysdale and Natalie Wood were all students there.
They must’ve had a really good drama club there, plus you had Roy Hobbs on the same baseball team as a Hall of Fame pitcher. Pretty, pretty good.

— Switching to basketball, VCU beat Penn State Sunday; last spring, the Penn State coach left VCU to go coach at his alma mater, an interesting decision.
My question is this: is Penn State a better basketball coaching job than VCU?
Obviously, they’re in a better league, but Penn State is a football school located in an area that isn’t real close to any basketball hotbeds (190 miles from Philadelphia), while VCU is a basketball school, kind of an eastern version of Gonzaga.
VCU has been in 10 of last 12 NCAA tournaments, under three different coaches; Penn State has been in two NCAA tournaments since 2002 (they would’ve made it had there been a tournament in 2020).
If someone asked me which job was better, without knowing the $$$ end of it, I’d say VCU, because winning is a lot more fun that losing.

— Baseball stuff:
St Louis Cardinals have been aggressive in rebuilding their starting rotation, adding free agent pitchers Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray.
Detroit Tigers added P Kenta Maeda.
Winter meetings start Sunday, should be lot of stuff going on.

Oakland 78, Xavier 76
Good win for 13-point underdog Oakland, and the Horizon League.
Grizzlies outscored Xavier 12-7 over final 3:49.
Oakland was minus-14 on boards, but shot 69.7% inside arc.

Utah 78, Saint Mary’s 71
Gaels were picked to win WCC, but they’re off to a shaky 3-4 start.
This was first game in eight days for Utah.
Utes are the tallest college team in America.

Cal-Santa Barbara 69, Fresno State 65
UCSB was 1-5 on arc for whole game, Fresno 7-31.
Fresno led by 7 with 16:25 left in game.
Gauchos didn’t play any seniors; Fresno started five seniors.
 

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WEEK 13

DALLAS
are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in games played on turf in the current season.

NEW ENGLAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as a dog in the last 2 seasons.

DETROIT is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games in the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

PITTSBURGH is 31-15 ATS (14.5 Units) in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 105-142 ATS (-51.2 Units) in home games since 1992.

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 - 13 in the last 3 seasons.

CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a dog in the current season.

PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in home games after a win in the last 2 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a win by 14 or more pts. in the last 2 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in the last 2 seasons.
 

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Week 13


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Trend Report
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Seattle @ Dallas
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Detroit @ New Orleans
Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Detroit

Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

LA Chargers @ New England
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
New England
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers

Atlanta @ NY Jets
Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Arizona @ Pittsburgh
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona

Miami @ Washington
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Washington
Miami is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

Denver @ Houston
Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Denver
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Carolina @ Tampa Bay
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina

San Francisco @ Philadelphia
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
San Francisco is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Cleveland @ LA Rams
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland

Kansas City @ Green Bay
Kansas City
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
Cincinnati is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Jacksonville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games


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Long Sheet

Week 13


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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
— Clemson 85, Alabama 77- Tigers start 4 seniors; they were 11-21 on arc.
— Kentucky 95, Miami 73- Wildcats scored 1.32 points/possession.
— UNLV 72, Akron 70- Rebels led by 18 with 13:33 left, hung on for the win.
— Portland State 75, Portland 74- Vikings were down 5 with 2:09 left.
— McNeese State 81, UAB 60- Former LSU coach Will Wade is the McNeese coach.
— Oregon State named DC Trent Bray its new football coach.

Quote of the Day
“I am so tired of hearing how I was the reason that Barry Sanders never won a Super Bowl. I’m so tired of hearing how I was not a good QB.”
Former Detroit Lions’ QB Scott Mitchell (32-41 as an NFL starter, 27-32 in Detroit)

Wednesday’s quiz
Which college football team is the last team to beat Georgia?

Tuesday’s quiz
Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman played college football at Oklahoma, then UCLA.

Monday’s quiz
Marshall Thundering Herd is the college football team, with minimum of 10 bowls played, that has the best winning percentage in bowl games— they’re 13-5 (72.2 winning %) in bowls.

**************************************

Wednesday’s Den: An early primer on the college basketball season

We’re 23 days into the college basketball season; this is when we gather information and learn as much as possible. It is still really early, but this is what we’ve learned so far:

— Indiana State 77, Southern Illinois 48- This is the only conference game that’s been played so far this season. Salukis shot 30.4% from floor; Indiana State shot 57.1% inside the arc.

— Six teams in country with the best continuity:
1- Columbia
2- Florida Atlantic
3- Marquette
4- Drexel
5- Cal-Davis
7- Weber State

Six teams in country with the worst continuity:
361- New Mexico State
360- Iona
359- Utah State
357- Idaho
356- Notre Dame
355- Southern Utah

— Purdue won Maui Classic, becoming first team in 13 years to beat a top 15 team three days in a row. Last team to do it was UConn, in 2011 Big East tournament.

— Teams that’ve played easiest schedules so far:
362- TCU
361- Cal-Northridge
360- Tulsa
359- Valparaiso
357- Cal Baptist
356- Georgetown

Teams that’ve played hardest schedules so far:
3- Eastern Washington
4- Rider
8- Morehead State
9- Northern Iowa
10- Cal-Fullerton
12- Boise State

— Some of teams playing fastest tempo in country:
4- George Washington
5- James Madison
6- New Mexico
7- Marshall
8- Western Kentucky
9- Hampton

Some of teams playing slowest tempo in country:
362- Virginia
361- Towson
360- Air Force
359- North Texas
357- Northwestern
356- Saint Peter’s

— Teams with the best FG% defense inside the arc:
1- Illinois
2- Rutgers
3- Providence
5- Virginia
6- Iowa State
7- UConn

Teams with the worst FG% defense inside the arc:
358- Wright State
355- Toledo
348- Drake
347- Cornell
346- Rice
345- Nebraska-Omaha

— Word of the Day: authenticity- being true to your own personality, values, and spirit, regardless of the pressure that you’re under to act otherwise.

— Teams getting highest %age of points on 3-pointers:
1- Creighton
2- Sacramento State
3- St Joe’s
4- Cal-Riverside
6- BYU
10- San Jose State

Teams getting lowest %age of points on 3-pointers:
362- Rio Grande Valley
361- Indiana
359- Western Kentucky
358- IUPUI
357- Cal-Northridge

— James Madison started the season with overtime wins at Michigan State/Kent State; they’re only team in the last 30 years to start a season with back/back overtime wins, both on the road.

— Field of 68’s top 6 mid-major teams:
1- Drake
2- Cal-Santa Barbara
3- Yale
4- Akron
5- Charleston
6- Furman

— According to Kenpom.com, these are the six best conferences in the country:
1- Big X
2- Big East
3- SEC
4- Big 14
5- Pac 12
6- ACC

These are the six worst conferences in the country:
32- NEC
31- SWAC
30- MEAC
29- Patriot
28- Southland
27- Ohio Valley

— Teams forcing highest % of turnovers:
1- Iowa State
2- Houston
3- Florida International
4- Rutgers
5- TCU
6- Cal-Davis

— Teams playing their subs the least:
361- Princeton
360- Murray State
359- West Virginia
358- Oral Roberts
357- Air Force
356- Gonzaga

— Most experienced teams (experience is different than continuity; teams that poach lot of transfers have experienced guys, but guys that haven’t played together very much):
1- St Bonzaventure
2- Washington
3- TCU
4- St John’s
5- North Carolina
6- James Madison

— Least experienced teams
362- Idaho
361- Siena
360- Valparaiso
359- Notre Dame
358- VMI
357- North Carolina A&T
 

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Armadillo's Write-up

Week 13

Thursday’s game
Seahawks
(6-5) @ Cowboys (8-3)
— Seattle lost last two games, scoring 16-13 points.
— Seahawks scored 13-13-3-16-13 points in losses, 20+ in wins.
— Seahawks were outscored 80-16 in second half of their losses.
— Last five games, Seattle converted 17-64 third down plays.
— Seattle is 15-13 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss.
— Seattle is 14-9-1 ATS in its last 24 games as a road dog (2-2 TY).
— Geno Smith is 28-34 as an NFL starter, 16-16 with Seattle.
— Seahawks are 3-5 ATS in last eight NFC West home games.
— Seattle is 3-2 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Under is 4-1 in Seattle’s road games.
— NFC West road underdogs are 3-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-4-1


— Cowboys won/covered five of last six games.
— Eight Dallas wins were by combined score of 298-87 (37-11 average).
— Dallas scored 16-10-23 points in losses, 37.3 ppg in wins.
— Dallas won its four home games TY by 20-35-23-32-35 points.
— Cowboys are 15-5 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite (5-0 TY)
— Cowboys are +11 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Dallas is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
— QB Prescott is 72-42 as an NFL starter.
— Last three games, Cowboys are 19-38 on third down.
— NFC East favorites are 10-6 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-4-1

— Seattle won four of last five series games.
— Seahawks covered three of last four visits to Dallas.
— under is 8-4 in last 12 meetings.


Sunday’s games
Chargers
(4-7) @ Patriots (2-9)
— Chargers are 0-5 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— LA is 2-5 since its bye, with three losses by 3 points.
— Three of Bolts’ four wins were by 7+ points.
— under Staley, Chargers are 4-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— under Staley, Bolts are 9-10-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Chargers have ten takeaways (+7) in wins, three (minus-7) in losses.
— Herbert is 29-32 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 14-56 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Charger games.
— AFC West teams are 12-18-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-4


— Patriots lost seven of their last eight games (1-7 ATS).
— Patriots were outscored 106-43 in first half of those games.
— NE lost last three games by 3-4-3 points.
— Last two games, Patriots scored one TD on 20 drives.
— New England is minus-8 in turnovers this year.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-34 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 82-99 without Brady.
— Mac Jones is 18-25 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last two games, Patriots held opponents to 264-220 yards.
— Under is 8-2-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East teams are 9-16 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 10-1. Opponents’ team total: 6-5 over


— New England won last seven series games.
— Chargers are 0-4 ATS in last four visits to Foxboro.
— Under is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.


Lions (8-3) @ Saints (5-6)
— Lions are 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Lions gave up 37-38-29 points in their three losses.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 3-1 ATS as home favorite (3-0 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 15-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 30-14-1 ATS overall.
— Last two games, Detroit is minus-5 in turnovers (2-7)
— Last three games, Lions ran ball for 169.3 yards/game.
— Opponents converted 24 of last 67 third down plays (35.8%).
— Goff is 64-51-1 as an NFL starter, 20-20-1 with the Lions.
— over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— NFC North favorites are 7-4 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Saints lost last two games, scoring 19-15 points.
— Saints were outscored 38-12 in first half of those games.
— New Orleans is 4-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have 12 offensive TD’s on their last 54 drives.
— Last seven games, New Orleans is +6 in turnovers.
— Last four games, Saints were 23-54 on third down.
— Saints split their four home games SU this season.
— NO is 4-6-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog (0-0 TY)
— Last three games, Saints gave up 169.7 rushing yards/game.
— under is 3-1 in Saints’ home games.
— NFC South home teams are 4-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Saints won last two meetings, 35-29/52-38.
— Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to New Orleans.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.


Falcons (5-6) @ Jets (4-7)
— Falcons lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta’s last three losses were by 5-3-2 points.
— underdogs covered Atlanta’s last six games.
— Atlanta is 1-3 SU on road this season.
— under Smith, Falcons are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three games, Falcons were 21-40 on third down.
— Last eight games, Atlanta is minus-8 in turnovers (8-16)
— Atlanta is 17-23-3 in last 43 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 1-6-1 ATS in last eight games vs AFC opponents.
— Ridder is 7-6 as an NFL starting QB.
— Three of last four Atlanta games went over the total.
— NFC South favorites are 4-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-5-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-4-2


— #3 QB Boyle (0-4 as NFL starter) gets another start here.
— Jets lost last four games, 27-6/16-12/32-6/34-13.
— In five post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 58 drives.
— Jets scored 22-31-20-13 points in wins, 10-10-20-6-12-6-13 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 147-76 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-11 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-22 ATS as an underdog
— Last ten games, Jets converted 30-132 third down plays.
— Jets have scored ten TD’s, have 42 3/outs on 121 drives.
— Boyle is 0-4 as an NFL starter; Trevor Siemian is backup.
— Jets are 7-8-1 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— AFC East underdogs are 4-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


— Falcons won four of last five series games.
— Atlanta won 25-20/10-7 in last two games at the Jets.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.


Cardinals (2-10) @ Steelers (7-4)
— Arizona is 1-8 SU/3-6 ATS in its last nine games
— Last four games, Arizona was outscored 69-30 in first half.
— Last four games, Cardinals are 13-50 on third down.
— Last ten games, Arizona gave up 27.4 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 21 of last 25 games SU (10-12 ATS in last 21).
— Murray is 26-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 15-18 ATS in last 33 games coming off a loss.
— Last eight games, Cardinals allowed 35 TD’s on 107 drives.
— Over is 7-4 in last 11 Arizona games.
— NFC West road underdogs are 3-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 6-6. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5-1


— Steelers won/covered five of their last seven games.
— They fired their offensive coordinator last week.
— Steelers are 4-2 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Steelers are 16-19 ATS last 35 games as a home favorite.
— Last week was first time TY Pittsburgh outgained an opponent.
— Last four games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 166-205-172-153 yards.
— Last ten games, Steelers have a +12 turnover margin.
— Steelers are 6-2 ATS in last eight games vs NFC teams.
— Eight of ten Steeler games stayed under the total.
— QB Pickett is 14-9 as an NFL starter.
— AFC North home favorites are 10-2-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Steelers won last four meetings, covered last three.
— Cardinals lost 25-13/28-15 in last two visits to Pittsburgh.
— Under is 3-2 in last five series games.


Colts (6-5) @ Titans (4-7)
— Indianapolis won last three games, giving up 13-6-20 points.
— They outscored opponents 44-16 in first half of those games.
— Colts allowed 20 or less points in its wins, 29+ in losses.
— QB Minshew is 12-19 as an NFL starter, 4-3 TY.
— Colts won/covered three of four true road games TY.
— In its last three games, Indy was +5 in turnovers (7-2)
— Colts are 10-12 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 4-2 in Indy’s last six games.
— Colts are 2-6 ATS in last eight AFC South road games.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 8-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Titans lost five of their last seven games SU.
— Tennessee is 3-0 SU at home TY, winning by 3-24-5 points.
— Titans are 3-0 scoring 27+ points, 1-7 scoring 17 or less.
— Last six games, Tennessee converted 19-70 on third down.
— Titans are 4-0 SU/ATS at home this season.
— Tennessee is 0-3 SU/ATS this year coming off a win.
— Titans are minus-4 in turnovers (7-11) so far this season.
— Rookie QB Levis is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under total.
— Titans are 5-7 ATS in last 12 AFC South home games.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-3


— Colts (+2) beat Tennessee 23-16 at home in Week 5.
— Indy ran ball for 193 yards, converted 8-13 on third down.
— Titans won four of last five series games.
— Colts are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 visits to Nashville.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.


Dolphins (8-3) @ Commanders (4-8)
— Dolphins won three of their last four games.
— Miami outscored last three opponents 37-7 in second half.
— Favorites are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games.
— Miami scored 31+ points in six of eight wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— Last seven games, Miami is minus-7 in turnovers (9-16).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 42 TD’s on 116 drives.
— Miami outscored last four opponents 47-17 in second half.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-5 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— over is 3-2 in their true road games.
— Tagovailoa is 29-16 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


— Washington lost eight of last ten games SU (2-4 ATS last six)
— Commanders fired their defensive coordinator after last game.
— Washington is 1-7 giving up more than 17 points, 3-1 giving up 17 or less.
— Last two weeks, Commanders are minus-7 in turnovers (0-7).
— Last four weeks, Commanders are 35-72 on third down.
— Washington is 10-15 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Last ten games, Commanders were outscored 144-72 in 1st half.
— four of their last five games went over the total.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 5-8 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 6-3 ATS in last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: over 7-5. Opponents’ team total: over 9-3


— Teams split their last four meetings.
— All four games stayed under the total.
— Teams also split last four games played here.


Broncos (6-5) @ Texans (6-5)
— Broncos won last five games, giving up 17-9-22-20-12 points.
— Three of those five wins were by 1 or 2 points.
— Last three games, Denver is +11 in turnovers (14-3).
— Broncos outscored last four opponents 61-33 in first half.
— Denver is 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS on road this season.
— Last three weeks, Denver allowed 155.7 rushing yards/game.
— Broncos are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
— Denver is 17-13-1 ATS last 31 games as a road underdog.
— Five of last seven Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Russell Wilson is 123-76-1 as an NFL starter, 10-16 with Denver.
— AFC West favorites are 10-11 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Houston won three of its last four games.
— Texans’ last five games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3 points.
— Underdogs covered eight of their last nine games.
— Last two games, Houston is 15-26 on third down.
— Texans won four of their last five home games.
— Houston is 2-11 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Last four weeks, Texans scored 27.8 points/game.
— Houston is 16-22-2 in last 40 games coming off a loss.
— Stroud is 6-5 as an NFL starter.
— First five games, Texans were +5 in turnovers; last six games, minus-4
— Team total: under 6-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-3


— Denver won four of last five series games.
— Broncos won/covered two of last three visits to Houston.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Panthers (1-10) @ Buccaneers (4-7)
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants on offense this week.
— Carolina is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7.
— Last seven games, Panthers were outscored 119-49 in first half.
— In five post-bye games, Panthers scored four TD’s on 46 drives.
— In five post-bye games, Carolina scored 15-13-13-10-10 points.
— Carolina is 9-19-1 ATS in last 29 games following a loss.
— Young’s nine starts (1-9), Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started (5.5 ypa)
— Last five games, Carolina was held to 224-275-213-187-258 yards.
— Panthers are 11-14 ATS in last 25 NFC South road games.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers have been outscored 141-88 in second half of games.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Bucs lost six of last seven games (4-1 ATS last five)
— Bucs are 0-6 when they allow more than 17 points.
— Tampa Bay is 2-3 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Bucs have 17 takeaways in 11 games (+6 turnovers)
— Last two games, opponents were 6-23 on third down.
— Bucs are 5-7 ATS in last 12 NFC South home games.
— Under is 8-3 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS TY in games coming off a loss.
— Mayfield is 36-46 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: under 6-4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4-1


— Buccaneers won six of last seven series games.
— Panthers are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Tampa.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 18-16 ATS


49ers (8-3) @ Eagles (10-1)
— 49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17 in losses.
— SF scored 34-27-31 points in winning its three post-bye games.
— Last three weeks, 49ers were +6 in turnovers (6-0)
— 49ers have outscored opponents 129-76 in 2nd half.
— SF ran ball for 169 yards LW, their best since Week 5.
— 49ers are 12-10-1 ATS in last 23 games as road favorites (3-2-1 TY).
— SF is 13-12 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
— 49ers played on Thanksgiving, had little extra prep time for this.
— 49ers are 8-9 ATS last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 15-4 as NFL starter.
— Team total: over 7-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Eagles won 10 of first 11 games (6-2-3 ATS)
— Eagles trailed at halftime last two weeks, both times 17-7.
— Philly ran for 185 yards LW, their most YR since Week 3.
— Last seven games, Philly is minus-6 in turnovers.
— Last five games, Eagles have 21 TD’s on 51 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-7 ATS as an underdog.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in all of their wins, 14 in the loss.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 35-14 SU.
— Eagles are 10-8-3 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Hurts is 35-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 8-3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Eagles were minus-4 in turnovers in only loss (to Jets)
— Team total: over 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Eagles beat San Francisco 31-7 last year in the playoffs.
— Eagles won three of last four series games.
— 49ers are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Philadelphia.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.


Browns (7-4) @ Rams (5-6)
— Unclear which QB will start; they have injury issues.
— Browns are 5-2 since their bye week.
— Browns won/covered three of last four games.
— Last two games, Browns scored 13-12 points (2 TD’s/23 drives)
— Last six weeks, Cleveland ran ball for 136.2 yards/game.
— Cleveland has run 17.3 more plays/game than opponents TY.
— Browns are 8-2-2 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Browns are 5-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-4 allowing 24+.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 8-10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Opponents have converted only 38-140 third down plays.
— over is 4-2 in last six Cleveland games.
— AFC North teams are 17-11-1 outside the division.
— Team total: over 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Rams won last two games, giving up 16-14 points.
— First time this year Rams won consecutive games.
— LA is 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 1-6 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 2-3 SU/1-3-1 ATS at home this season.
— Rams are 4-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 78-35 in 2nd half of their losses.
— Rams outscored last two opponents 26-9 in second half.
— Stafford is 24-16 as a starter with the Rams.
— Rams are 2-6-1 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-2 in Rams’ last seven games.
— LA is 4-8-2 ATS last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: under 6-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-3-1


— Rams won/covered four of last five series games.
— Last two times Browns visited Rams, games were in St Louis.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.


Chiefs (8-3) @ Packers (5-6)
— Chiefs split last four games, after a 6-1 start.
— Last four games, Chiefs were outscored 41-17 in second half.
— KC has outscored opponents 186-80 in first half.
— Chiefs have 11 takeaways in their wins (+1), 3 in losses (minus-4)
— KC is 12-15-1 ATS in last 28 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs held eight of last ten foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
— This season, Chiefs are 4-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 83-22 SU as an NFL starter.
— AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 9-2


— Packers won three of last four games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay is 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS at home this year.
— Packers are 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Last four games, Green Bay is 27-55 on third down.
— since 2018, Packers are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Jordan Love is 5-7 as an NFL starter.
— Green Bay is 3-6 ATS last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Packers are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Last three games, Green Bay gave up 205-150-140 rushing yards.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


— Teams split their last six meetings.
— This is Mahomes’ first game at Lambeau Field.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.


Monday’s game
Bengals
(5-6) @ Jaguars (8-3)
— Bengals lost last three games, giving up 30-34-16 points.
— QB Burrow is out for the year.
— QB Browning was 27-43/295 passing since Burrow got hurt.
— Last week was Browning’s first NFL start.
— Bengals are 5-1 giving up 20 or less points, 0-5 allowing more than 2o.
— Last seven games, Bengals are +8 in turnovers. (14-6)
— Cincinnati is 2-3 SU/ATS on road this year (both losses by 3 points)
— Cincinnati is 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
— Bengals are 15-9-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Three of Bengals’ last four road games went over total.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Jaguars won/covered seven of their last eight games.
— Last two games, Jags outscored foes 26-7 in first half.
— Jacksonville scored 9-17-3 points in losses, 20+ points in wins.
— Under Pederson, Jags are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
— Last six games, opponents are 18-67 on third down.
— Jaguars converted only 22 of last 76 third down plays.
— Jaguars are minus-6 in turnovers in their losses (+4 in wins).
— Pederson is 64-51-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 20-25 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: over 5-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


— Cincinnati won six of last eight series games.
— Bengals are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Jacksonville.
— This is their first visit to Jacksonville since 2017.
— Over is 6-3-2 in last eleven meetings.
 

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Armadillo's Write-up

Week 13

Thursday’s game
Seahawks
(6-5) @ Cowboys (8-3)
— Seattle lost last two games, scoring 16-13 points.
— Seahawks scored 13-13-3-16-13 points in losses, 20+ in wins.
— Seahawks were outscored 80-16 in second half of their losses.
— Last five games, Seattle converted 17-64 third down plays.
— Seattle is 15-13 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss.
— Seattle is 14-9-1 ATS in its last 24 games as a road dog (2-2 TY).
— Geno Smith is 28-34 as an NFL starter, 16-16 with Seattle.
— Seahawks are 3-5 ATS in last eight NFC West home games.
— Seattle is 3-2 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Under is 4-1 in Seattle’s road games.
— NFC West road underdogs are 3-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-4-1


— Cowboys won/covered five of last six games.
— Eight Dallas wins were by combined score of 298-87 (37-11 average).
— Dallas scored 16-10-23 points in losses, 37.3 ppg in wins.
— Dallas won its four home games TY by 20-35-23-32-35 points.
— Cowboys are 15-5 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite (5-0 TY)
— Cowboys are +11 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Dallas is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
— QB Prescott is 72-42 as an NFL starter.
— Last three games, Cowboys are 19-38 on third down.
— NFC East favorites are 10-6 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-4-1

— Seattle won four of last five series games.
— Seahawks covered three of last four visits to Dallas.
— under is 8-4 in last 12 meetings.


Sunday’s games
Chargers
(4-7) @ Patriots (2-9)
— Chargers are 0-5 TY in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— LA is 2-5 since its bye, with three losses by 3 points.
— Three of Bolts’ four wins were by 7+ points.
— under Staley, Chargers are 4-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— under Staley, Bolts are 9-10-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Chargers have ten takeaways (+7) in wins, three (minus-7) in losses.
— Herbert is 29-32 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 14-56 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Charger games.
— AFC West teams are 12-18-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-4


— Patriots lost seven of their last eight games (1-7 ATS).
— Patriots were outscored 106-43 in first half of those games.
— NE lost last three games by 3-4-3 points.
— Last two games, Patriots scored one TD on 20 drives.
— New England is minus-8 in turnovers this year.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-34 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 82-99 without Brady.
— Mac Jones is 18-25 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last two games, Patriots held opponents to 264-220 yards.
— Under is 8-2-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East teams are 9-16 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 10-1. Opponents’ team total: 6-5 over


— New England won last seven series games.
— Chargers are 0-4 ATS in last four visits to Foxboro.
— Under is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.


Lions (8-3) @ Saints (5-6)
— Lions are 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Lions gave up 37-38-29 points in their three losses.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 3-1 ATS as home favorite (3-0 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 15-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 30-14-1 ATS overall.
— Last two games, Detroit is minus-5 in turnovers (2-7)
— Last three games, Lions ran ball for 169.3 yards/game.
— Opponents converted 24 of last 67 third down plays (35.8%).
— Goff is 64-51-1 as an NFL starter, 20-20-1 with the Lions.
— over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— NFC North favorites are 7-4 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Saints lost last two games, scoring 19-15 points.
— Saints were outscored 38-12 in first half of those games.
— New Orleans is 4-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have 12 offensive TD’s on their last 54 drives.
— Last seven games, New Orleans is +6 in turnovers.
— Last four games, Saints were 23-54 on third down.
— Saints split their four home games SU this season.
— NO is 4-6-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog (0-0 TY)
— Last three games, Saints gave up 169.7 rushing yards/game.
— under is 3-1 in Saints’ home games.
— NFC South home teams are 4-10-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Saints won last two meetings, 35-29/52-38.
— Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to New Orleans.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.


Falcons (5-6) @ Jets (4-7)
— Falcons lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta’s last three losses were by 5-3-2 points.
— underdogs covered Atlanta’s last six games.
— Atlanta is 1-3 SU on road this season.
— under Smith, Falcons are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three games, Falcons were 21-40 on third down.
— Last eight games, Atlanta is minus-8 in turnovers (8-16)
— Atlanta is 17-23-3 in last 43 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 1-6-1 ATS in last eight games vs AFC opponents.
— Ridder is 7-6 as an NFL starting QB.
— Three of last four Atlanta games went over the total.
— NFC South favorites are 4-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-5-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-4-2


— #3 QB Boyle (0-4 as NFL starter) gets another start here.
— Jets lost last four games, 27-6/16-12/32-6/34-13.
— In five post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 58 drives.
— Jets scored 22-31-20-13 points in wins, 10-10-20-6-12-6-13 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 147-76 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-11 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-22 ATS as an underdog
— Last ten games, Jets converted 30-132 third down plays.
— Jets have scored ten TD’s, have 42 3/outs on 121 drives.
— Boyle is 0-4 as an NFL starter; Trevor Siemian is backup.
— Jets are 7-8-1 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— AFC East underdogs are 4-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


— Falcons won four of last five series games.
— Atlanta won 25-20/10-7 in last two games at the Jets.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.


Cardinals (2-10) @ Steelers (7-4)
— Arizona is 1-8 SU/3-6 ATS in its last nine games
— Last four games, Arizona was outscored 69-30 in first half.
— Last four games, Cardinals are 13-50 on third down.
— Last ten games, Arizona gave up 27.4 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 21 of last 25 games SU (10-12 ATS in last 21).
— Murray is 26-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 15-18 ATS in last 33 games coming off a loss.
— Last eight games, Cardinals allowed 35 TD’s on 107 drives.
— Over is 7-4 in last 11 Arizona games.
— NFC West road underdogs are 3-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 6-6. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5-1


— Steelers won/covered five of their last seven games.
— They fired their offensive coordinator last week.
— Steelers are 4-2 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Steelers are 16-19 ATS last 35 games as a home favorite.
— Last week was first time TY Pittsburgh outgained an opponent.
— Last four games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 166-205-172-153 yards.
— Last ten games, Steelers have a +12 turnover margin.
— Steelers are 6-2 ATS in last eight games vs NFC teams.
— Eight of ten Steeler games stayed under the total.
— QB Pickett is 14-9 as an NFL starter.
— AFC North home favorites are 10-2-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Steelers won last four meetings, covered last three.
— Cardinals lost 25-13/28-15 in last two visits to Pittsburgh.
— Under is 3-2 in last five series games.


Colts (6-5) @ Titans (4-7)
— Indianapolis won last three games, giving up 13-6-20 points.
— They outscored opponents 44-16 in first half of those games.
— Colts allowed 20 or less points in its wins, 29+ in losses.
— QB Minshew is 12-19 as an NFL starter, 4-3 TY.
— Colts won/covered three of four true road games TY.
— In its last three games, Indy was +5 in turnovers (7-2)
— Colts are 10-12 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 4-2 in Indy’s last six games.
— Colts are 2-6 ATS in last eight AFC South road games.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 8-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Titans lost five of their last seven games SU.
— Tennessee is 3-0 SU at home TY, winning by 3-24-5 points.
— Titans are 3-0 scoring 27+ points, 1-7 scoring 17 or less.
— Last six games, Tennessee converted 19-70 on third down.
— Titans are 4-0 SU/ATS at home this season.
— Tennessee is 0-3 SU/ATS this year coming off a win.
— Titans are minus-4 in turnovers (7-11) so far this season.
— Rookie QB Levis is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under total.
— Titans are 5-7 ATS in last 12 AFC South home games.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-3


— Colts (+2) beat Tennessee 23-16 at home in Week 5.
— Indy ran ball for 193 yards, converted 8-13 on third down.
— Titans won four of last five series games.
— Colts are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 visits to Nashville.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.


Dolphins (8-3) @ Commanders (4-8)
— Dolphins won three of their last four games.
— Miami outscored last three opponents 37-7 in second half.
— Favorites are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games.
— Miami scored 31+ points in six of eight wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— Last seven games, Miami is minus-7 in turnovers (9-16).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 42 TD’s on 116 drives.
— Miami outscored last four opponents 47-17 in second half.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-5 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— over is 3-2 in their true road games.
— Tagovailoa is 29-16 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


— Washington lost eight of last ten games SU (2-4 ATS last six)
— Commanders fired their defensive coordinator after last game.
— Washington is 1-7 giving up more than 17 points, 3-1 giving up 17 or less.
— Last two weeks, Commanders are minus-7 in turnovers (0-7).
— Last four weeks, Commanders are 35-72 on third down.
— Washington is 10-15 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Last ten games, Commanders were outscored 144-72 in 1st half.
— four of their last five games went over the total.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 5-8 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 6-3 ATS in last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: over 7-5. Opponents’ team total: over 9-3


— Teams split their last four meetings.
— All four games stayed under the total.
— Teams also split last four games played here.


Broncos (6-5) @ Texans (6-5)
— Broncos won last five games, giving up 17-9-22-20-12 points.
— Three of those five wins were by 1 or 2 points.
— Last three games, Denver is +11 in turnovers (14-3).
— Broncos outscored last four opponents 61-33 in first half.
— Denver is 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS on road this season.
— Last three weeks, Denver allowed 155.7 rushing yards/game.
— Broncos are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
— Denver is 17-13-1 ATS last 31 games as a road underdog.
— Five of last seven Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Russell Wilson is 123-76-1 as an NFL starter, 10-16 with Denver.
— AFC West favorites are 10-11 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Houston won three of its last four games.
— Texans’ last five games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3 points.
— Underdogs covered eight of their last nine games.
— Last two games, Houston is 15-26 on third down.
— Texans won four of their last five home games.
— Houston is 2-11 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Last four weeks, Texans scored 27.8 points/game.
— Houston is 16-22-2 in last 40 games coming off a loss.
— Stroud is 6-5 as an NFL starter.
— First five games, Texans were +5 in turnovers; last six games, minus-4
— Team total: under 6-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 8-3


— Denver won four of last five series games.
— Broncos won/covered two of last three visits to Houston.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Panthers (1-10) @ Buccaneers (4-7)
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants on offense this week.
— Carolina is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7.
— Last seven games, Panthers were outscored 119-49 in first half.
— In five post-bye games, Panthers scored four TD’s on 46 drives.
— In five post-bye games, Carolina scored 15-13-13-10-10 points.
— Carolina is 9-19-1 ATS in last 29 games following a loss.
— Young’s nine starts (1-9), Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started (5.5 ypa)
— Last five games, Carolina was held to 224-275-213-187-258 yards.
— Panthers are 11-14 ATS in last 25 NFC South road games.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers have been outscored 141-88 in second half of games.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Bucs lost six of last seven games (4-1 ATS last five)
— Bucs are 0-6 when they allow more than 17 points.
— Tampa Bay is 2-3 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Bucs have 17 takeaways in 11 games (+6 turnovers)
— Last two games, opponents were 6-23 on third down.
— Bucs are 5-7 ATS in last 12 NFC South home games.
— Under is 8-3 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS TY in games coming off a loss.
— Mayfield is 36-46 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— Team total: under 6-4-2. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4-1


— Buccaneers won six of last seven series games.
— Panthers are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Tampa.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 18-16 ATS


49ers (8-3) @ Eagles (10-1)
— 49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17 in losses.
— SF scored 34-27-31 points in winning its three post-bye games.
— Last three weeks, 49ers were +6 in turnovers (6-0)
— 49ers have outscored opponents 129-76 in 2nd half.
— SF ran ball for 169 yards LW, their best since Week 5.
— 49ers are 12-10-1 ATS in last 23 games as road favorites (3-2-1 TY).
— SF is 13-12 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
— 49ers played on Thanksgiving, had little extra prep time for this.
— 49ers are 8-9 ATS last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 15-4 as NFL starter.
— Team total: over 7-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Eagles won 10 of first 11 games (6-2-3 ATS)
— Eagles trailed at halftime last two weeks, both times 17-7.
— Philly ran for 185 yards LW, their most YR since Week 3.
— Last seven games, Philly is minus-6 in turnovers.
— Last five games, Eagles have 21 TD’s on 51 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-7 ATS as an underdog.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in all of their wins, 14 in the loss.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 35-14 SU.
— Eagles are 10-8-3 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Hurts is 35-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 8-3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Eagles were minus-4 in turnovers in only loss (to Jets)
— Team total: over 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


— Eagles beat San Francisco 31-7 last year in the playoffs.
— Eagles won three of last four series games.
— 49ers are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Philadelphia.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.


Browns (7-4) @ Rams (5-6)
— Unclear which QB will start; they have injury issues.
— Browns are 5-2 since their bye week.
— Browns won/covered three of last four games.
— Last two games, Browns scored 13-12 points (2 TD’s/23 drives)
— Last six weeks, Cleveland ran ball for 136.2 yards/game.
— Cleveland has run 17.3 more plays/game than opponents TY.
— Browns are 8-2-2 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Browns are 5-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-4 allowing 24+.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 8-10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Opponents have converted only 38-140 third down plays.
— over is 4-2 in last six Cleveland games.
— AFC North teams are 17-11-1 outside the division.
— Team total: over 7-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Rams won last two games, giving up 16-14 points.
— First time this year Rams won consecutive games.
— LA is 4-0 giving up 16 or less points, 1-6 giving up 19+ points.
— Rams are 2-3 SU/1-3-1 ATS at home this season.
— Rams are 4-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 78-35 in 2nd half of their losses.
— Rams outscored last two opponents 26-9 in second half.
— Stafford is 24-16 as a starter with the Rams.
— Rams are 2-6-1 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-2 in Rams’ last seven games.
— LA is 4-8-2 ATS last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
— Team total: under 6-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-3-1


— Rams won/covered four of last five series games.
— Last two times Browns visited Rams, games were in St Louis.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.


Chiefs (8-3) @ Packers (5-6)
— Chiefs split last four games, after a 6-1 start.
— Last four games, Chiefs were outscored 41-17 in second half.
— KC has outscored opponents 186-80 in first half.
— Chiefs have 11 takeaways in their wins (+1), 3 in losses (minus-4)
— KC is 12-15-1 ATS in last 28 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs held eight of last ten foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
— This season, Chiefs are 4-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 83-22 SU as an NFL starter.
— AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 9-2


— Packers won three of last four games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay is 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS at home this year.
— Packers are 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Last four games, Green Bay is 27-55 on third down.
— since 2018, Packers are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Jordan Love is 5-7 as an NFL starter.
— Green Bay is 3-6 ATS last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Packers are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Last three games, Green Bay gave up 205-150-140 rushing yards.
— Team total: under 6-5. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


— Teams split their last six meetings.
— This is Mahomes’ first game at Lambeau Field.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.


Monday’s game
Bengals
(5-6) @ Jaguars (8-3)
— Bengals lost last three games, giving up 30-34-16 points.
— QB Burrow is out for the year.
— QB Browning was 27-43/295 passing since Burrow got hurt.
— Last week was Browning’s first NFL start.
— Bengals are 5-1 giving up 20 or less points, 0-5 allowing more than 2o.
— Last seven games, Bengals are +8 in turnovers. (14-6)
— Cincinnati is 2-3 SU/ATS on road this year (both losses by 3 points)
— Cincinnati is 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
— Bengals are 15-9-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Three of Bengals’ last four road games went over total.
— Team total: under 8-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-5


— Jaguars won/covered seven of their last eight games.
— Last two games, Jags outscored foes 26-7 in first half.
— Jacksonville scored 9-17-3 points in losses, 20+ points in wins.
— Under Pederson, Jags are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
— Last six games, opponents are 18-67 on third down.
— Jaguars converted only 22 of last 76 third down plays.
— Jaguars are minus-6 in turnovers in their losses (+4 in wins).
— Pederson is 64-51-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 20-25 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: over 5-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


— Cincinnati won six of last eight series games.
— Bengals are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Jacksonville.
— This is their first visit to Jacksonville since 2017.
— Over is 6-3-2 in last eleven meetings.

Appreciate your work Udog 🙏
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads this week:
— Seahawks @ Dallas (-9)
— Colts (-1) @ Tennessee
— Chargers (-6) @ New England
— Lions (-4) @ New Orleans
— Falcons (-3) @ Jets
— Cardinals @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Quote of the Day
“Make no mistake that a good quarterback in the portal costs, you know, a million to $1.5M to $2M right now, just so we’re all on the same page. Let’s make sure we all understand what’s happening. There are some teams that have $6M or $7M players playing for them.”
Nebraska football coach Matt Rhule

Thursday’s quiz
Who is the all-time leader in passing yards for the Houston Texans?

Wednesday’s quiz
Alabama is the last team to beat Georgia, 41-24 in the 2021 SEC championship game.

Tuesday’s quiz
Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman played college football at Oklahoma, then UCLA.

************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— Arkansas 80, Duke 73- Duke put only two players in double figures. Arkansas struggled against pressure defense in the last 3:00, but they get a big non-conference win.

— St Joe’s 78, Villanova 65- Hawks lost in overtime at Kentucky, beat Villanova here; they haven’t had a winning season since 2016, but they’re off to a terrific start this year.

— North Carolina 100, Tennessee 92- Game was 61-39 at halftime; Vols are struggling, losing their last three games. Tar Heels were 32-38 on the foul line.

— Colorado State 88, Colorado 83- Are Niko Medved’s Rams the best team in Mountain West? They already have wins over Creighton, Colorado.

College football has its conference championship games this weekend; here are some quick trends on each conference title game, over the last five years:
AAC- favorites 3-2 against spread. Teams that won three of last five titles have moved on to other leagues.
ACC- favorites 5-0 against spread. Four of those five years the winner was Clemson; they’re not in this year’s game.
Big 14- favorites 3-2 against spread, all double digit spreads, Favorites were either Michigan or Ohio State- they won all five games SU.
Big X- underdogs 3-2 against spread.
C-USA- underdogs 4-1 against spread. Teams that won last five title games have moved on to better leagues.
MAC- underdogs 4-1 against spread. Four different teams won last five titles.
Mountain West- underdogs 4-1 against spread. UNLV is in this game for first time; Boise State is in its for 5th time in last six years, but they haven’t won this game since 2019, and they’ve already fired their coach this season.
Pac-12- underdogs 3-2 against spread. Average total, last four years- 56.5. Oregon (2-1) is in this game for 4th time in five years. Washington is in it for first time since 2018, when they won it.
SEC- underdogs 3-2 against spread. Average total: 68.6. Georgia is 1-3 in this game the last five years, Alabama 3-0.
Sun Belt- underdogs 2-2 against spread (2020 game was cancelled).

— Long time ago, a shortstop named Garry Templeton made the 1979 All-Star Game, but he told the Cardinals’ radio guy (Jack Buck) “If I ain’t starting, I ain’t departing”
Little did he know is that his statement now sums up lot of quarterback situations in college football, except now it is “If I ain’t starting, then I will be departing”
College football has turned into baseball, with QB’s bolting into free agency at a high rate:
Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina- he played five years there, with 10,000+ PY.
Athan Kaliakmanis, Minnesota
Blake Shapen, Baylor
Riley Leonard, Duke
Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Max Johnson, Texas A&M- already surfaced at North Carolina
Tyler Van Dyke, Miami
Will Howard, Kansas State
Jake Rubley, Kansas State- His dad TJ Rubley played in the NFL/CFL; he also coached Keanu Reeves in his role as the starting QB for the fictional Washington Sentinels in the movie, The Replacements.
Spencer Petras, Iowa
E.J. Warner, Temple- Kurt Warner’s son
Gerry Bohanon, South Florida
This isn’t a complete list; has to be crazy being a college coach these days, recruiting high school kids while also re-recruiting all your current players.

— HBO or Showtime should hook up with some college program to do a reality show based on recruiting and the transfer portal— it would be excellent television.

Put it this way; this season, 55.7% of the starting quarterbacks were transfers.

— Word of the Day: catalyst- a person or thing that precipitates an event.

— College football coaching changes:
Oregon State promoted defensive coordinator Trent Bray to head coach, replacing Jonathan Smith, who bolted to Michigan State. Like Smith, Bray is an Oregon State alum.
San Diego State hired Sean Lewis, who used to coach Kent State; he was offensive coordinator at Colorado this season.

— Mississippi State’s new coach, Jeff Lebby, banks a $1M incentive if his Bulldogs win a national championship. Good luck with that one.

— This season and last, in Sunday night/Monday NFL games, under is 49-17. I can’t come up with a good reason why this is happening, but it is happening.

— Richmond Spiders’ starting G DeLonnie Hunt hurt his wrist, is out 6-8 weeks.

— Lakers 133, Detroit 107- Pistons have lost 15 games in a row, are 0-14 in November.

— 23 years ago, Mark Cuban bought the Dallas Mavericks for $285M; this week, word is out that he is selling a majority stake in the Mavericks, for $3.5B, that’s billion, with a B.
Cuban is cashing out on most of his ownership status, but he will retain full control over the Mavericks’ basketball operations, which is what makes this so unusual.

— New York Mets had some activity Wednesday:
Mets signed P Luis Severino for one year, $13M
Mets signed IF Joey Wendle for one year, $2M (plus incentives)

— Friend of mine found the old TV show White Shadow on YouTube this week, so I’ve spent the last few late-nights catching up with one my all-time favorite TV shows.
Ken Howard is a basketball player who retires from the NBA and gets a job as a basketball coach in an inner-city high school in Los Angeles- his friend from college is the school’s principal.
Hadn’t seen this show in 35-40 years; it was only on for three seasons, but it was well done. Creator of the show was Bruce Paltrow, Gwyneth Paltrow’s father.

— Delaware is moving from the CAA to Conference USA; they’ll be going I-A in football, starting in 2025-26.
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
There are six D-I basketball coaches who are 70+ years old:
— Cliff Ellis, Coastal Carolina- 78 years old, 829 wins.
— Dan D’Antoni, Marshall- 76 years old, 164 wins.
— Leonard Hamilton, Florida State- 75 years old, 630 wins.
— Fran Dunphy, LaSalle- 75 years old, 599 wins.
— Jim Larrañaga, Miami- 74 years old, 730 wins
— Rick Pitino, St John’s- 71 years old, 713 wins

Quote of the Day
“We can’t guard a stop sign.”
Washington Wizards’ Kyle Kuzma. Wizards are 3-15 this season.

Friday’s quiz
Which team is the last one that beat the Dallas Cowboys at home?

Thursday’s quiz
Matt Schaub (23,221) is the all-time leader in passing yards for the Houston Texans.

Wednesday’s quiz
Alabama is the last team to beat Georgia, 41-24 in the 2021 SEC championship game.

******************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here………

Cowboys 41, Seahawks 35
Only 5th regular season game ever where neither team punted.
Seattle scored a touchdown on five of its first seven drives.
Seattle in 4th quarter: 3 drives- 20 plays, 78 yards, no points.
Seahawks are 15-9-1 ATS in its last 25 games as road dog (3-2 TY).
Dallas had nine drives: four touchdowns, four field goals.
Cowboys drove 54 yards, scored game-winning TD with 4:37 left.
Seahawks covered four of last five visits to Dallas.
Last four games, Cowboys are 27-52 on third down.

NFL juggled its TV schedule for Week 15, two weeks from now:
Eagles @ Seattle moves to Monday night.
Chiefs @ New England gets moved to 1:00 Sunday.
There is a tripleheader on Saturday, December 16:
1:00- Vikings @ Cincinnati
4:30- Steelers @ Indianapolis
8:15- Broncos @ Detroit

Butler 103, Texas Tech 95, OT
Tech led by 5 with 3:10 left in regulation.
Butler shot 12-27 on arc, Tech 13-26.
Not often a team scores 1.25 points/possession and loses.

Illinois State 69, Ill-Chicago 64
Ill-Chicago led by 13 in first half.
Redbirds shot 66.7% inside the arc.
State starts 5 seniors, but they’re #312 in eFG%.

UCLA 66, Cal-Riverside 65- Narrow escape for the Bruins.

— Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei, who transferred from Clemson last year, is going in the portal again; UCLA QB Dante Moore is also in the portal.
College football has evolved into a situation where every decent QB goes on the open market every December, with lot of money on the table. Not great.

— Clemson fired two assistant coaches, its offensive line coach and its defensive end coach.

— Word of the Day: Consequence- the result of a particular action or situation.

— SEC-ACC have already played 20 basketball games against each other this season:
SEC teams are 14-11 straight up, 15-10 against spread.
SEC teams are 7-2 ATS at home, 6-3 on neutral floors.
ACC teams are 5-2 ATS at home.

— When Duke lost at Arkansas the other night, it was first time in 32 years that Duke played a basketball against an SEC team in an SEC arena.

— San Jose State-Coastal Carolina get rewarded for their good seasons by getting matched up to play in the Hawai’i Bowl. Going to Hawai’i for a bowl must be excellent.
Put it this way; there are bowls in Boise, Boston, Bronx, Maryland, Albuquerque; I’d rather not freeze my butt off during the game. Hawai’i would be just fine.

— Indiana tabbed James Madison coach Curt Cignetti as its new football coach; Dukes are 19-4 the last two years, 13-3 in the Sun Belt Conference. Overall, he went 52-9 at James Madison.

— Cincinnati Reds bolstered their bullpen, adding Emilio Pagan, Nick Martinez as free agents.

— Ole Miss announced that 7-foot center Moussa Cisse, a transfer from Oklahoma State, has cleared by the NCAA to play for Rebels. Cisse was the 2021-22 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year for Oklahoma State; he started his college career at Memphis.
Ole Miss is off to a 6-0 start, with a win over NC State; they play Memphis Saturday.
 

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Armadillo Sports

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Northwestern 92, Purdue 88 OT- First loss of season for the #1 Boilers.
Kansas 69, UConn 65- Huskies led by 5 with 8:55 left.
Houston 66, Xavier 60- Neither team shot 35% from the floor.
Norfolk State 63, VCU 60- VCU shot 36.2%, was minus-10 in turnovers.
Boise State 63, Saint Mary’s 60- Gaels lost five of their last six games.
Southern Miss 85, UAB 82- Blazers led by 15 points in first half.

Quote of the Day
“I told the team after the game, we need games like this. This is what December football looks like…To get to where we want to go, you have to win these type of games. … How are you going to be good at winning close games if you’re not in them?”
Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy

Saturday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Jim Harbaugh used to coach?

Friday’s quiz
Tampa Bay is the last team that beat the Cowboys in Dallas; they Dallas 19-3 in last year’s season opener.

Thursday’s quiz
Matt Schaub (23,221) is the all-time leader in passing yards for the Houston Texans.

************************************

Saturday’s Den: Where do NFL QB’s come from?

NFC East

— Cowboys- Dak Prescott (Mississippi State)
4th round pick in 2016
72-43 with Dallas, 2-4 in playoffs.
Dallas is set here for next five years.

— Giants- Daniel Jones (Duke)
1st round pick in 2019
23-37-1 with Giants, 1-1 in playoffs.
Has been hurt a lot, is hurt now
Backups- Tyrod Taylor, Tommy DeVito
They’ve got some big decisions to make in off-season.

— Eagles- Jalen Hurts (Alabama/Oklahoma)
2nd round pick in 2020
35-14 with Eagles, 2-2 in playoffs
Eagles are set for the foreseeable future.

— Commanders- Sam Howell (North Carolina)
5th round pick in 2022
5-8 with Washington.
Two years, two offensive coordinators; Howell is doing OK so far.

NFC North
— Bears- Justin Fields (Ohio State)
1st round pick in 2021
7-26 with the Bears
Chicago has two very high draft picks next April; will they take another QB?
Rookie backup Tyson Bagent is 2-2 as a starter this year.

— Lions- Jared Goff (California)
1st round pick by Rams in 2016
traded to Detroit with draft picks for Matthew Stafford
44-30 with Rams, 20-21-1 with Detroit (2-3 in playoffs with LA)
Lions are set here for next five years.

— Packers- Jordan Love (Utah State)
1st round pick in 2020
5-7 with Green Bay.
Aaron Rodgers is tough act to follow, but he’s doing OK so far.

— Vikings- Kirk Cousins (Michigan State)
4th round pick by Washington, in 2012
26-31-1 with Washington, 51-39-1 with Vikings (1-3 in playoffs).
He’ll be 36 when next season starts, coming off a bad injury; his future is unclear.
Joshua Dobbs (2-11 as NFL starter) is Minnesota’s QB right now.
Vikings have a major decision to make in off-season.

NFC South
Falcons- Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)
3rd round pick in 2022
7-6 with Falcons.
He’s been benched once this year, but is starting again; it is still early for him.

Panthers- Bryce Young (Alabama)
#1 overall pick in last April’s draft
1-9 with Carolina; head coach/QB coach already got fired.
They scored 27 points in the one game backup Dalton started.
Would it kill Carolina to sit Young and let him watch some?

Saints- Derek Carr (Fresno State)
2nd round pick by Raiders in 2014
63-80 with Raiders, 5-6 with New Orleans (0-1 in playoffs)
Carr will be 33 in March; are Saints sold on him?
Last time Saints drafted a QB in 1st round? Archie Manning, in 1971.

Buccaneers- Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
#1 overall pick by Cleveland in 2018
29-30 with Browns, 1-5 Carolina, 1-3 with Rams, 4-7 with Bucs
Has played for four teams the last three years; he is still only 28.
Would think he’ll still be Tampa Bay’s quarterback next year.

NFC West
Cardinals- Kyler Murray (Texas A&M/Oklahoma)
#1 overall pick in 2019
26-34-1 with Arizona (0-1 in playoffs)
Has a very big contract; can he stay healthy and be productive?

Rams- Matthew Stafford (Georgia)
#1 overall pick in 2009 by Detroit
Traded to Rams for Jared Goff
74-93-1 with Lions, 24-16 with Rams (4-3 in playoffs)
won Super Bowl two years ago
will be 36 in February; how much longer does he want to play?

49ers- Brock Purdy (Iowa State)
7th round pick in 2022 draft
15-4 with 49ers (2-1 in playoffs)
came out of nowhere last year to be the starter.
49ers are built to win now; will he get them over the hump?

Seahawks- Geno Smith (West Virginia)
2nd round pick by Jets, in 2013.
12-18 with Jets, 0-1 with Giants, 16-17 with Seattle
0-1 in playoffs (lost 41-23 to 49ers LY)
Is 33 years old, has regressed some this year.

AFC East
Bills- Josh Allen (Wyoming)
1st round pick in 2018
62-34 with Buffalo, 4-4 in playoffs
Bills are set here for next 7-8 years.

Dolphins- Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)
1st round pick in 2020
29-16 with Miami; he’s headed to playoffs for first time.
Dolphins seem set here for the next 10 years.

Patriots- Mac Jones (Alabama)
1st round pick in 2021
18-25 with New England, 0-1 in playoffs
Is now more of a suspect that prospect; his future is unclear.
Patriots have lot of decisions to make this winter.

Jets- Aaron Rodgers (California)
1st round pick by Green Bay, in 2005
158-85-1 with Packers (11-10 in playoffs)
Won Super Bowl, 14 years ago.
Got hurt on his 4th play with Jets this season
Tore his Achilles; today is his 40th birthday.
He is expected to play before end of this season; we’ll see.
If not him, then who? (no one on current roster)

AFC North
Ravens- Lamar Jackson (Louisville)
1st round pick in 2018 draft
55-22 with Baltimore, 1-3 in playoffs.
Ravens are set here for next 8-10 years.

Bengals- Joe Burrow (Ohio State/LSU)
1st overall pick in 2020 draft
34-22-1 with Bengals (5-2 in playoffs)
Cincinnati is set here for the next ten years.

Browns- Deshaun Watson (Clemson)
1st round pick by Houston in 2017
28-25 with Texans, 8-4 with Browns (1-2 in playoffs)
Had off-field problems with Texans, was suspended
If he can stay healthy, Browns are set here for next 6-7 years.

Steelers- Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)
1st round pick in 2022 draft
14-9 with Steelers, hasn’t made playoffs yet.
Steelers fired their OC last week- who will new guy be?

AFC South
Texans- CJ Stroud (Ohio State)
2nd overall pick in 2023 draft
6-5 in his rookie year, doing surprisingly well.
Texans are trying to make playoffs for first time since 2019.
Looks like Houston is set here for foreseeable future.

Colts- Anthony Richardson (Florida)
#4 overall pick in 2023 draft
only started 13 games in college
2-2 as starter TY; got hurt, is OFY.
last seven years, Colts have started 7 different QB’s in Week 1.
Gardner Minshew is 4-3 as Colts’ starter this year.

Jaguars- Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
1st overall pick in 2021 draft
21-26 with Jaguars, 1-1 in playoffs
Jaguars are set here for next 10-12 years

Titans- Will Levis (Kentucky)
2nd round pick in 2023 draft
2-3 as starter in his rookie season; 2-0 at home, 0-3 on road
as long as he hands off a lot to Derrick Henry, he’ll be OK.

AFC West
Broncos- Russell Wilson (NC State/Wisconsin)
3rd round pick by Seahawks, in 2012
113-60-1 with Seattle, 10-16 with Denver (9-7 in playoffs)
Won Super Bowl ten years ago.
Just turned 35; how much longer does he want to play?

Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech)
10th overall pick in 2017 draft (9 teams passed on him!?!?!?!)
83-22 with the Chiefs, 11-3 in playoffs, an all-time great.
Chiefs are set here for next 7-8 years.
Would be nice if they got him better receivers.

Raiders- Aidan O’Connell (Purdue)
4th round pick in 2023 draft
2-3 as a rookie starter; head coach has already been fired.
As usual, Raiders have lot of questions to answer this winter.

Chargers- Justin Herbert (Oregon)
6th overall pick in 2020 draft
29-32 with Chargers, 0-1 in playoffs (blew 27-0 lead, lost 31-30)
Chargers are set here, for next ten years.
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Power 6 college basketball teams that have played the hardest schedules:
6) Tennessee
8) Marquette
9) Texas A&M
11) Purdue
25) Kansas
28) Florida

Quote of the Day
“So you’re going to tell me somebody’s sitting in the committee room and doesn’t think that the Georgia team is not one of the best four teams? I’m not sure they’re in the right profession, because it’s a really good football team, it’s a really talented football team, it’s a really balanced football team. They have to make that decision. But it’s the best four teams, and that’s critical.”
Georgia coach Kirby Smart

Sunday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Nick Saban used to coach?

Saturday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.

Friday’s quiz
Tampa Bay is the last team that beat the Cowboys in Dallas; they Dallas 19-3 in last year’s season opener.

******************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday……..

— I can’t process it yet, but next year, the Pac-12 will no longer exist; the greedy humans who run college sports are screwing things up royally.
Cal and Stanford in the ACC? The A in ACC stands for Atlantic, as in ocean.
Creighton is in the Big East; it is also in Omaha, Nebraska, nowhere near the east.
Oregon State/Washington State got left behind; they’ll basically hook up with the Mountain West teams for scheduling purposes. Good luck to those coaches during recruiting season.
Gonzaga has now won 16 games in a row vs Pac-12 teams; they play Washington next week, possibly the last chance ever for that streak to end.
— It was a rough day for some favorites in college basketball:

NC-Wilmington 80, Kentucky 73
Seahawks led by 14 in first half; Kentucky was up 6 with 12:51 left.
Kentucky played eight guys, including five freshmen and a sophomore.

Georgia Tech 72, Duke 68
Duke lost two road games this week, by total of nine points.
Georgia Tech shot 66.7% inside the arc.

Wisconsin 75, Marquette 64
Badgers beat their in-state rivals for third year in a row.
Marquette is 6-2; they’ve played the 8th-hardest schedule in the country.

Drexel 57, Villanova 55
Villanova was 10-14 on foul line, Drexel 1-3, but Villanova never led.
Villanova is 0-3 vs other colleges in Philadelphia, 6-0 vs everyone else.

Bucknell 76, Penn State 67
Bucknell is 3-7; they lost by 24 to freakin’ Marist.
Bucknell was 10-21 on the arc, Penn State 4-19.
There were some dramatic finishes Saturday:

Vermont 66, Yale 65
Yale led 65-60 with 0:03.5 left in the game.
Vermont hit a 4-point play at the buzzer for an unlikely win.

LaSalle 93, Penn 82 OT
LaSalle coach Dunphy coached Penn for 18 years.
Explorers hit a 3-pointer with 0:01 left for the dramatic win.

TCU 84, Georgetown 83, OT
Horned Frogs hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer for the walk-off win.
TCU is 7-0, but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the whole country so far.
— Word of the Day: Fustercluck- a euphemism for a similar word, which means a complete failure and mismanaged situation.
I was thinking about college football when that word came to mind.

Liberty 49, New Mexico State 35
Game was 35-35 after three quarters.
Liberty gained 712 yards on 71 plays, over 10 yards/play.
Flames ran ball 45 times for 393 yards.
Liberty is 13-0 SU/9-4 ATS this season.

Washington 34, Oregon 31
Washington beat Oregon twice this season, 36-33/34-31.
Washington outgained the Ducks, 482-363
Huskies were 10-15 on third down, Oregon 3-10
Huskies’ last four wins were by 7-2-3-3 points.

Texas 49, Oklahoma State 21
First four Texas drives: 24 plays, 292 yards, 28 points.
Longhorns led 35-14 at halftime.
Texas was 10-16 on third down, OSU 3-10
Total yardage: Texas 662, Cowboys 281

Miami OH 23, Toledo 14
Miami OH led 10-8 at halftime.
Red Hawks are 9-0 if they score 23+ points.
Miami covered nine of its last 11 games.
Toledo’s 11-game winning streak comes to an end.

Boise State 44, UNLV 20
Boise State wins Mountain West, 19 days after they fired their coach.
Broncos’ first six drives: 29 plays, 297 yards, 31 points.
Boise ran ball 51 times for 301 yards.
UNLV is still headed to its first bowl since 2013.

Alabama 27, Georgia 24
Georgia’s 29-game winning streak comes to an end.
Alabama is 8-1 in its last nine games against the Dawgs.
Georgia ran the ball 31 times for only 78 yards.
The big question? Do both of these teams get in the 4-team playoff?

SMU 26, Tulane 14
SMU turned ball over on three of its first five drives.
Mustangs kicked a field goal on four of last five drives.
SMU won its last nine games overall; they’re 8-1 in last nine vs Tulane.
Tulane coach Fritz is rumored to be bolting to the Houston Cougars.

Troy
49, Appalachian State 23
Troy led 21-17 after three quarters.
Troy’s first three drives: 18 plays, 49 yards, 3 punts.
Troy’s last eight drives: 42 plays, 414 yards, 42 points.
Trojans win Sun Belt title for second year in a row.

Michigan 26, Iowa 0
A Cedar Rapids golf simulator/bar offered free beer until Iowa scored a point during this game, which means their patrons got to drink for free for over three hours.
Michigan won/covered last four meetings with Iowa, by total of 105-20.
Wolverines won the Big 14 title for the third year in a row.

Florida State 16, Louisville 6
Florida State played its #3 quarterback in this game (8-21/55 passing).
Seminoles are now 5-1 in ACC championship games.
In its previous four games, Louisville had scored 33.5 ppg.
Florida State/Washington were both underdogs this weekend, despite being 12-0, and they both won SU.

Some quick NFL notes:
Arizona Cardinals have lost the field position battle in every game. No bueno.
Minnesota Vikings have won the field position battle in only one game.
Rams have won the field position battle in only two games, the two vs Arizona.
In their last four games, Carolina Panthers have scored only 3 TD’s on 35 drives; they’ve got a minus-6 turnover ratio in those games, with zero takeaways. Panthers did score a TD on a punt return.
Joe Flacco will be the Browns’ 4th different starting QB Sunday, in their 12th game.
Houston Texans are 6-3 in their last nine games, with losses by 2-2-3 points.
In their last three games, Detroit Lions have allowed 12 TD’s on 29 drives.
 

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 3

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ATL at NYJ01:00 PMATL -2.0
U 33.5
+500 +500
MIA at WAS01:00 PMU 49.5+500
IND at TEN01:00 PMTEN +1.0+500
ARI at PIT01:00 PMPIT -6.0
U 40.0
+500 +500
DEN at HOU01:00 PMHOU -3.0
U 47.0
+500 +500
LAC at NE01:00 PMU 39.0+500
DET at NO01:00 PMDET -4.0
U 47.5
+500 +500
CAR at TB04:05 PMCAR +3.5
U 36.5
+500 +500
CLE at LAR04:25 PMCLE +3.5
U 39.5
+500 +500
SF at PHI04:25 PMSF -3.0
U 47.0
+500 +500
KC at GB08:20 PMKC -5.0
O 43.5
+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER'S NFL BEST BETS !

12/03/2023....................................7 - 7 - 0...............................50.00%.......................- 3.50
 

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Monday’s 6-pack:
Six of the better bowl games on this year’s schedule:
— Dec 23: Armed Forces Bowl- James Madison vs Air Force
— Dec 23: Hawai’i Bowl- Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State
— Dec 26: Guaranteed Rate Bowl- Kansas vs UNLV
— Dec 30: Orange Bowl- Georgia vs Florida State
— Jan 1: Rose Bowl- Michigan vs Alabama
— Jan 1: Sugar Bowl; Washington vs Texas

Quote of the Day
“I tried to impress upon them what it was to be a professional and how tough this game is to play. And I told them almost every day how good there were.”
Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland

Monday’s quiz
Who did UNLV play the last time they were in a bowl game (2013)?

Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Dolphins in 2005-06.

Saturday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.

********************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……..

49ers 42, Eagles 19
— 49ers’ first two drives: 6 plays, minus-6 yards, two punts.
— 49ers’ next six drives: 47 plays, 450 yards, 42 points.
— WR Samuel had 7 touches for 138 yards, three TD’s.
— San Francisco averaged 10.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 48-20 in first half.
— Philly ran ball 18 times for only 46 yards.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in their wins, 14-19 in losses.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS as an underdog.

Colts 31, Titans 28 OT
— Titans kicked FG in OT, then Colts drive 75 yards for game-winning TD.
— Tennessee led 17-7 with 8:00 left in first half.
— Colts blocked punt for TD to take 22-17 lead with 0:19 left in 3rd quarter.
— Titans blocked PAT, ran it back for two points to cut lead to 22-19.
— Colts won last four games, are tied for last AFC playoff slot.
— QB Minshew is 5-3 as a starter this season.
— Colts won/covered four of five true road games TY.
— Indianapolis team total: over 9-2-1

Chargers 6, Patriots 0
— Chargers snap a 7-game losing streak vs New England.
— LA gained only 241 yards, kicked two 38-yard field goals.
— Opponents are 18-70 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Charger games.
— Patriots lost last three games, 10-6/10-7/6-0.
— Last three games, Patriots scored one TD on 30 drives.
— New England lost eight of their last nine games (1-8 ATS).
— AFC East teams are 10-18 ATS outside the division.

Lions 33, Saints 28
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Two of Lions’ four TD drives were short; 17, 26 yards.
— Rookie TE Laporta caught nine passes for 140 yards and a TD.
— Lions are 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Detroit led 21-0 with 8:15 left in first quarter.
— Saints were outscored 62-19 in first half of last three games.
— Saints in first half: 28 plays, 113 yards, 7 points.
— Saints in second half: 38 plays, 254 yards, 21 points.

Falcons 13, Jets 8
— Falcons’ first 4 drives: 16 plays, 23 yards and a safety for the Jets
— Falcons’ only TD drive was 47 yards in second quarter.
— Atlanta was 4-14 on third down, Jets 2-15.
— Atlanta won, but Jets outgained them, 259-194.
— Jets lost their last five games, scoring 9 ppg.
— In six post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 68 drives.
— Jets have been outscored 157-81 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-23 ATS as an underdog

Cardinals 24, Steelers 10
— Game had two weather delays; one for 30 minutes, one for 53 minutes.
— Arizona RB Conner ran ball for 105 yards, two TD’s against his old team.
— Cardinals had three TD drives: 99-21-33 yards.
— Arizona was 10-17 on third down, Pittsburgh 4-11.
— QB Pickett hurt his ankle; backup Trubisky played most of game.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10 points.
— Steelers are 16-20 ATS last 36 games as a home favorite.
— Nine of last 11 Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.

Dolphins 45, Commanders 15
— Dolphisn’ first six drives: 39 plays, 338 yards, 38 points.
— Miami scored on pick-6 to take 17-0 lead late in first quarter,
— WR Hill caught five passes for 145 yards, two TD’s.
— Dolphins scored 31+ points in 7 of 9 wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— In last three games, Commanders gave up 31-45-45 points.
— Washington lost nine of last 11 games SU (2-5 ATS last seven)
— In those 11 games, Commanders were outscored 175-79 in 1st half.
— Opponents’ team total: over 10-3

Texans 22, Broncos 17
— Broncos were minus-3 in turnovers (+11 in previous four games)
— Wilson threw an INT on three of Denver’s last four drives.
— Denver was 0-11 on third down, Texans were 4-16.
— Broncos are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Houston won four of its last five games.
— Texans’ last six games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3-5 points.
— Texans’ first four drives: 25 plays, 192 yards, 13 points.
— Stroud is 7-5 as an NFL starter.

Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18
— Carolina is 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7-3 points.
— This was first game in six weeks that Panthers scored 2+ offensive TD’s.
— Carolina drove 75 yards, scored 8 points with 5:02 left for back-door cover.
— Last eight games, Panthers were outscored 126-52 in first half.
— 2nd quarter of this game was played in a monsoon.
— Evans caught 75-yard TD pass that put Bucs ahead, 14-10.
— Last three games, opponents were 9-38 on third down.
— Buccaneers won seven of last eight games vs Carolina.

Rams 36, Browns 19
— Rams won last three games, giving up 16-14-19 points.
— Rookie WR Nacua caught four passes for 105 yards and a TD.
— LA outscored Browns 12-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Rams are 5-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Flacco was 23-44/254 passing; he is 4th QB to start for Browns TY.
— Last three games, Browns scored 13-12-19 points (4 TD’s/35 drives)
— Cleveland scored TD to make score 20-19 in 3rd quarter; they missed PAT.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 8-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Packers 27, Chiefs 19
— Chiefs are 2-3 in last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Chiefs’ first four drives: 47 plays, 260 yards, 19 points.
— Chiefs’ last three drives: 15 plays, 65 yards, no points.
— KC is 12-16-1 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.
— Packers won four of last five games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay’s first four drives: 36 plays, 255 yards, 21 points.
— Packers held Chiefs to 5.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last five games, Green Bay is 34-69 on third down.

Appalachian State 69, Auburn 64- Tough day for SEC, with Miss State, Auburn getting upset. Tigers were +16 on boards in this game, but shot 3-27 on arc.

Southern 60, Mississippi State 59- Southern ended game on a 15-2 run.

Clemson 79, Pitt 70- Tigers are 7-0, with three top 100 wins.

— Congrats to former big league manager Jim Leyland, who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame Sunday. Leyland won two AL pennants with Detroit, won the 1997 World Seres with the Marlins- he also led the Pirates to the playoffs three years in a row (1990-92).
 

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MONDAY, DECEMBER 4

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
CIN at JAC08:15 PMJAC -10.0
U 41.0
+500 +500
 

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