Cnotes NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

SMU vs. Minnesota
The Mustangs look to capture tonight's NIT final and come into the contest against Minnesota (24-13) with an 11-4 ATS record in their last 15 games against teams with a winning SU record. SMU is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mustangs favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games and this weekend's Final Four matchups.

THURSDAY, APRIL 3

Game 705-706: SMU vs. Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 68.328; Minnesota 62.646
Dunkel Line: SMU by 5 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: SMU by 2 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Yale at Murray State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 55.485; Murray State 58.549
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 3; 144
Vegas Line: Murray State by 7 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+7 1/2); Over


SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Game 813-814: Connecticut vs. Florida (6:09 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.884; Florida 75.456
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (8:49 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.872; Wisconsin 73.409
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 3

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MINNESOTA (24 - 13) vs. SMU (27 - 9) - 4/3/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
SMU is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SMU is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
SMU is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SMU is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
SMU is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
SMU is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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YALE (19 - 13) at MURRAY ST (22 - 11) - 4/3/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
MURRAY ST is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
MURRAY ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all home games this season.
MURRAY ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MURRAY ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
YALE is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
YALE is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
YALE is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
YALE is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, April 5

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CONNECTICUT (30 - 8) vs. FLORIDA (36 - 2) - 4/5/2014, 6:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 66-39 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (28 - 10) vs. WISCONSIN (30 - 7) - 4/5/2014, 8:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WISCONSIN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 3

Yale is 14-5 in its last 19 games, winning last three tourney games on the road; Bulldogs held high-powered VMI to 62 points Tuesday, playing only one guy more than 27:00. Yale is 10-8 outside the Ivies. Murray St won 17 of last 21 games after starting season 5-8; they scored 89.7 ppg in winning last three games, all at home. Racers are 7-7 outside the OVC; they played played only one guy more than 29:00 Tuesday, when they made 13-25 from the arc in easy win home win over Pacific.

SMU was team most slighted by getting left out of NCAAs, they lost twice to Louisville, by 13-8 points, now they face Minnesota team that is coached by Richard Pitino-- I'm guessing he has an excellent scouting report on SMU. Mustangs allowed 61.3 ppg in winning first four games in this tournament; they only used two guys more than 24:00 Tuesday, winning game they trailed by 13 in second half. Gophers' four wins in NIT were all by 8 or less points; they played three guys 39:00+ in OT win over Florida State Tuesday




NCAAB

Thursday, April 3

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Southern Methodist's last 11 games
Southern Methodist is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
YALE vs. MURRAY STATE
Yale is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Yale's last 6 games on the road
Murray State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Murray State's last 13 games at home


Saturday, April 5

6:09 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games

8:49 PM
KENTUCKY vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games


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NCAAB

Thursday, April 3

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NIT Championship betting preview: Southern Methodist vs. Minnesota
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Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+3, 132.5)

Southern Methodist looks for its first NIT title in program history when it faces Minnesota in New York on Thursday. The Mustangs erased a 13-point deficit in the second half to beat Clemson 65-59 for their fourth win in a row after being controversially left out of the NCAA tournament. "We haven't had a lot of nice things happen at SMU for a long, long time," coach Larry Brown admitted to reporters. "So if we are fortunate enough to win a championship like this and I am a part of it, it would be pretty neat."

Minnesota advanced to its second NIT championship game in the last three years after holding off Florida State 67-64 in overtime. The Golden Gophers were blown out 75-51 by Stanford in the 2012 final and hope to take care of business this time around after squandering a 15-point lead against the Seminoles before squeaking out a victory. "We really didn't want it to end," senior guard Austin Hollins told reporters. The guys really stuck together in overtime and played as hard as we could."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Gophers opened as 3-point dogs with the total holding at 132.5.

INJURY REPORT: SMU: C Yanick Moreira (Qut for season, knee). Minnesota: C Elliott Eliason (Questionable, ankle), F Oto Osenieks (Out indefinitely, knee)

WHY BET MINNESOTA (24-13 SU, 16-16-1 ATS, 14-17-1 O/U: Austin Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu each scored 17 points and Maurice Walker made six free throws in overtime to lift the Golden Gophers over Florida State. Minnesota has won the NIT in 1993 and 1998, but the last title was vacated due to an academic scandal. Andre Hollins tops the team in scoring (13.6), but has averaged just 7.2 points in four tournament games.

WHY BET SOUTHERN METHODIST (27-9 SU, 20-12 ATS, 12-19 O/U): Markus Kennedy has played some of his best basketball of the season in the NIT and recorded 21 points, nine rebounds and three steals versus Clemson. Brown is the only coach to win an NBA and NCAA championship and can add an NIT title to his impressive collection with a win on Thursday. SMU can equal a program record set by the 1987-88 team for most victories in a season with 28 if it beats Minnesota.

TRENDS:

* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Golden Gophers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
* Under is 8-3 in Mustangs last 11 overall.
* Over is 13-6-1 in Golden Gophers last 20 neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: 70 percent of wagers are on SMU at -3.

 

[CNOTES]

SMU vs. Minnesota

April 2, 2014


Southern Methodist and Minnesota will collide Thursday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City for the 2014 NIT title. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had SMU (27-9 straight up, 20-12 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 132.

Gamblers can take the Gophers on the money line for a +135 return (risk $100 to win $135). For first-half wagers, Larry Brown's squad is favored by 1.5 with a total of 61.

SMU trailed Clemson by 12 at intermission and by 15 early in the second half of Tuesday's semifinals showdown. Nevertheless, the Mustangs rallied to capture a 65-59 win as 3.5-point 'chalk.' The 124 combined points slipped 'over' the 119-point total.

Markus Kennedy only played 24 minutes due to foul trouble, but he really got going in the second half. Kennedy finished with 21 points, nine rebounds and three steals. He made 8-of-13 attempts from the field.

Sophomore point guard Nic Moore added 13 points, five rebounds and four assists. Sterling Brown added eight points, five boards and four assists.

Moore and Kennedy form an outstanding inside-outside combination for Brown's team. Moore averages 13.5 points and 4.8 assists per game, while Kennedy averages 12.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocked shots per contest.

Minnesota (24-13 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) has won seven of its last nine games, compiling a 6-3 spread record. The only defeats have come against Wisconsin, which is in the Final Four, and Michigan, which nearly got to the national semifinals before dropping a heartbreaker to Kentucky in the Midwest Region finals this past Sunday.

Minnesota advanced to the finals by virtue of a 67-64 overtime win over Florida St. as a 1.5-point underdog. The Gophers gave up a game-tying buzzer beater at the end of regulation, only to recover and outscore the Seminoles 7-4 in the extra session.

Austin Hollins and Deandre Mathieu shared game-high scoring honors with 17 points apiece. Hollins drained 7-of-11 shots from the field and 3-of-4 shots from 3-point range. Mathieu made both of his attempts from deep and contributed four rebounds and four assists. Andre Hollins added 13 points.

Richard Pitino's squad has been an underdog 13 times, going 6-7 ATS with five outright victories.

Minnesota is dealing with frontcourt injuries that could play a major role in this contest. Elliott Eliason, a fourth-year junior center who averages 5.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, suffered a sprained ankle at practice over the weekend and couldn't play against the 'Noles. Eliason has blocked a team-high 73 shots, but he's 'questionable' against the Mustangs.

Also, forward Oto Osenieks (5.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG) is 'out' with a knee injury.

The 'under' is 19-12 overall for SMU, 8-3 in its last 11 games. The 'under' is 17-14-1 overall for the Gophers.

ESPN will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Larry Brown is the only coach to ever win an NBA and NCAA Championship. He can add an NIT to his collection on Thursday. Former Arkansas and Tulsa coach Nolan Richardson is the only one to ever win NCAA, NIT and Junior College titles.

-- Missouri's Jabari Brown announced Wednesday that he'll declare for the NBA Draft just as his teammate Jordan Clarkson did a few days ago. Brown, a first-team All-SEC selection who averaged 19.9 PPG in 2013-2014, has not decided whether or not he'll sign with an agent. April 15 is the deadline.

-- Georgia made a commitment to Mark Fox on Wednesday, signing him to an extension through 2018.

-- BYU announced earlier this week that Matt Carlino is transferring. Carlino, who started his career at UCLA, will graduate in June and be eligible immediately at whatever school he chooses. Since Carlino is a native of Scottsdale and Jahii Carson will be gone, Arizona State will probably be one of the candidates for his services.

-- According to multiple reports Wednesday evening, Wake Forest has offered its head-coaching job to Tulsa's Danny Manning, who is leaning towards accepting the gig.

 

[CNOTES]

Mustangs, Gophers hook up

April 3, 2014


Minnesota (24-13) vs. SMU (27-9)

NIT: Championship
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York, NY
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: SMU -3.5 & 133

Both Minnesota and SMU look to end their seasons with a win on Thursday night when the schools collide for the NIT Championship at Madison Square Garden.

Minnesota has won six of its past seven games (5-2 ATS), including Tuesday night’s 67-64 overtime victory in the semifinal round against Florida State. Gophers SG Austin Hollins has been on fire as of late, scoring 17 points in the win against the Seminoles after scoring 32 in the previous round. However, Minnesota did not make it easy on Tuesday night, as it shot 16-of-25 from the free throw line, including some big ones that allowed FSU to send it to overtime. However, the Minnesota defense was tough all game, forcing 18 Seminoles turnovers and holding them to only 38% FG. The team is now 16-17-1 ATS overall (7-6-1 ATS in non-conference play) and 2-3 ATS on a neutral court. SMU continued its strong postseason run despite the disappointment of not making it to the NCAA Tournament.

The Mustangs were in big trouble on Tuesday night against Clemson, but were able to come back from a 12-point halftime deficit to earn the 65-59 victory. That makes them 20-12 ATS (63%) overall this season (8-5 ATS in non-conference play) and 2-3 ATS on a neutral court. SF Markus Kennedy continued his strong postseason run, coming just one rebound short of another double-double, as he finished with 21 points and nine rebounds. A big reason why the Mustangs were able to advance to the championship game was because of their ability to dominate the glass, as they outrebounded the Tigers 35-25. Both teams have positive betting trends for Thursday night, as Minnesota is 13-4 ATS (77%) versus slow-down teams (53 or less FGA per game) over the past three seasons, while SMU is 15-7 ATS (68%) versus poor pressure defenses (forcing 14 or less TO per game) this season.

Minnesota comes into the game ranked 147th in the country in scoring (71.6 PPG) while shooting 44.6% from the field (151st in Div. I). The Golden Gophers have a lot of guys that can get out and run, and that is fueled by the ability of the team to create havoc by forcing turnovers (7.6 SPG, 36th in nation). The Minnesota defense isn't that special though, as it allows 67.9 PPG (114th in Div. I) on 42.4% FG (112th in nation) and 34.3% threes (172 in nation). Andre Hollins (13.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.4 APG) has really struggled thus far in the postseason for the Gophers, and he must play up to his potential against SMU to get the victory. He is a very talented scorer that can also affect a game in many different ways. With Austin Hollins (not related) playing so well in the tournament, the Mustangs will be focused on slowing Austin down. This will give Andre some one-on-one opportunities, and he must capitalize on them.

Deandre Mathieu (11.8 PPG, 4.1 APG, 2.8 RPG) has played terrific basketball in his first year playing for Minnesota. He is undersized at 5-foot-9, but is fearless when driving the ball to the basket. He is also a big time three-point shooter, connecting on 20-of-41 from deep (49% threes). Mathieu is the most important player in this game, as the Mustangs have a terrific defense. If he is able to hit some early shots from the perimeter, the lanes should open up for him and the other Gophers to attack the rim. Maurice Walker (7.9 PPG), Malik Smith (7.5 PPG) and Joey King (7.2 PPG) are all solid contributors off the bench, who have all had big games scoring this season. The biggest key for Minnesota will be how they handle the frontcourt of the Mustangs, who have a lot of talent there.

SMU has shown the ability to make it extremely tough for its opponents to score the ball, ranking seventh in the nation in opposing field goal percentage (38.2%), while allowing only 62.2 PPG (22nd in Div. I). That defense was the key to get the victory against Clemson on Tuesday night, as the Mustangs allowed only 21 second-half points to help complete the comeback. While they do not score a lot of points with 71.2 PPG (166th in nation), the Mustangs do a terrific job of shooting the ball, ranking 18th in the nation at 48.3% FG. Larry Brown’s team does a great job of sharing the ball too, averaging 15.2 APG, good for 34th in Division I. Nic Moore (13.5 PPG, 4.9 APG) is a terrific scorer that can take over a game on the offensive end. He does a great job of attacking the rim, but he is also an accurate shooter from the outside (45% threes). While he does not have elite height, he has the athleticism and speed to make up for it. Kennedy (12.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG) is the difference maker on this team. He has terrific size and is absolutely relentless on both ends of the court. He has a nice variety of moves on the low block, and he also can finish at the rim against the best shot-blockers in the country. Nick Russell (9.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG) is an experienced shooting guard that has played in many big games in his career, and has drained 40% threes this season. With Moore attacking the rim as well as he has, it allows Russell to hang out on the perimeter where he is a terrific spot-up shooter.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, April 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Yale - 7:00 PM ET Yale +7.5 500 Double Play

Murray St. - Over 138 500 Triple Play


Southern Methodist - 7:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -3 500 Triple Play

Minnesota - Over 132.5 500 Double Play

 

[CNOTES]

Final Four Preview

April 3, 2014


Florida (-6.5) vs. UConn - Saturday, 6:00 PM EST

The Gators are 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games and they are 10-1 SU this season on a neutral court. UConn is 8-0 SU on neutral courts this season. They are on a 6-1 ATS overall run and are 8-4 ATS this season as an underdog.

FLORIDA

Why the Gators will win it all: The odds-on favorite to win the tournament, Florida, has won 30 straight games and hasn't lost a game since December 2nd. The Gators have dominated the competition, winning each of their four tournament games by 10 points or more. They rank 1st in KenPom rankings and are the only remaining team that fits the championship mold; top 18 in offensive efficiency and top 21 in defensive efficiency. The Gators’ defense, which is No. 1 in the country in efficiency, has held each tournament opponent to less than one point per possession. It has also held its four opponents under 42% field goals and under 30% three pointers in the tournament. They've gotten to the charity stripe 30 more times and are making 74% of their FT attempts in the tournament.

Why the Gators won’t win it all: Despite being the odds-on favorite, the Gators have an extremely tough road ahead of them. The Gators' only two losses this season came against UConn and Wisconsin - both fellow Final Four squads. The other Final Four team, Kentucky, matched up with Florida three times in SEC play and lost by just one point to Florida in the SEC Tournament Final. The Gators have had the easiest road here, beating a No. 16, a No. 9, a No. 4, and a No. 11. They haven’t been truly tested since beating Kentucky in the SEC Final. Florida has made 74% of its free throws in the tournament, but ranked 279th in free throw percentage during the regular season.

UCONN

Why the Huskies will win it all: The Huskies have the best playmaker remaining in guard Shabazz Napier. Napier is averaging 23.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals while shooting 45.2 percent from three in the Huskies' four tournament wins so far. UConn has made 40% of its three pointers in four tournament wins thus far. The Huskies have a very solid defense. They rank 10th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings and 13th in opponents field goal percentage (39.2%). They get to the charity stripe often and convert at an astonishing rate (4th nationally in free throw percentage). They made an astounding 81-of-92 (88%) free throws through the first four tournament games.

Why the Huskies won’t win it all: UConn had a relatively easy road here. They were lucky to come away with a win over Saint Joseph's in their first game, beat a cold-shooting Villanova squad in round of 32, and benefitted from a HUGE home-court advantage of playing at Madison Square Garden in the last two games against Iowa State and Michgian State. Outside of Napier, UConn's supporting cast can be a bit sporadic and they're unlikely to overcome a poor-shooting night from Napier.

Kentucky (-1.5) vs. Wisconsin - Saturday, 8:45 PM EST

Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its four tournament games and has yet to lose to a team outside of the Big Ten this season. They are 4-1 SU & ATS as an underdog this season. Three of the four tournament games have finished "under" the total. Kentucky has covered each of its past seven games. The total has gone "over" in three of its four tournament games.

WISCONSIN

Why the Badgers will win it all: Wisconsin is the only team in the country to beat the regular season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac-12 this year. The Badgers are the most fundamentally sound team remaining. They are extremely smart with the basketball as they turn it over at just a 12.7% rate (ranked 2nd nationally) and they don't commit silly fouls (3rd in opponents free throw rate). They don't give teams many 2nd chances either, ranking 18th in defensive rebounding percentage. Unlike previous editions of Wisconsin hoops, this one is built on an uber-efficient offense, ranking fourth in adjusted efficiency on KenPom.com.

Why the Badgers won’t win it all: Though the defense has looked strong in back-to-back wins over Arizona and Baylor, this unit still ranks just 45th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. Ben Brust, Traevon Jackson and Josh Gasser, Wisconsin’s starting guards who all average 31+ minutes per game, stand 6-1, 6-2 and 6-3, respectively. Kentucky's backcourt of the Harrison twins and Young are all 6-6. They are very thin in the frontcourt behind Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes. Should either of the two get in foul trouble, it would spell bad news for the Badgers.

KENTUCKY

Why the Wildcats will win it all: Kentucky disposed of the only unbeaten team in the country (Wichita State), the defending national champion (Louisville) and the defending national runner-up (Michigan). The Wildcats have the most talented roster in Dallas. Four players average 11 PPG or more and star forward Julius Randle has notched a double-double in all four tournament games. They are probably the best rebounding team left. In its last three wins, Kentucky has outrebounded its opponents by an average of 9.3 boards per game. That advantage is especially obvious on the offensive end, where the ‘Cats boast the country’s top offensive rebounding percentage (42.5 percent). In fact, Kentucky has grabbed at least 10 offensive boards in each of its last three victories.

Why the Wildcats won’t win it all: All that talent on the roster comes with inexperience and youth. They are, by far, the youngest team in Dallas and you never know what to expect from youth in big stages – especially with five freshman in the starting lineup. Kentucky converted on just under 40% of its three-point attempts in four tournament games after making just 33.2% during the regular season (ranked 231st nationally). Kentucky can't afford to go back to its old shooting ways in the Final Four. The Wildcats rank 174th in turnover percentage and were -15 in turnover ratio through the first four tournament games.

 

[CNOTES]

Final Four Breakdown

April 2, 2014


There’s only four teams left standing in the NCAA Tournament, and we're set to break all four of them down, stating how they can win the National Championship, and how they can lose it as well.

Florida Gators (36-2, 18-15-1 ATS) – The biggest issue which the Gators have right now is that they very well could end up playing two teams in Arlington who beat them in the regular season. The good news? They haven't lost a game since losing to Connecticut up at Gampel Pavilion back in early December. UF has the best "team" in this field as we see it, and the only way that it ends up not capturing a third National Championship under the Billy Donovan’s watch is if the team gets three-point shot happy instead of getting the ball down in the paint to Casey Prather and the rest of the bigs with regularity.

Wisconsin Badgers (30-7, 21-16 ATS) – This Wisconsin team is sort of the anti-Kentucky. There isn't a freshman in the bunch that is playing big minutes. The pros for the Badgers? They're disciplined, they play smart offensive basketball, and they have held their foes under 30 points in six of their eight halves here in the dance. The problem? For our money, they're the least talented side left in this tournament, especially if someone can find some way to match up against Frank Kaminsky. For as good as Shabazz Napier has been for the Huskies, Kaminsky is the MVP of this tournament so far in our eyes.

Connecticut Huskies (30-8, 21-15 ATS) – Our team of the tournament, UConn has made it from a team which should have been knocked out in the opening round against St. Joe's to a team which is just 80 minutes of basketball away from a National Championship. Much like Wisconsin, the problem that the Huskies have now is that they don't have the more talented team on the floor regardless of who the foe is. However, Shabazz Napier is the great equalizer, and if there is a way to beat Florida for a second time this year, it would be his heroics that get the job done. Napier went for 26 points against UF when these teams met in Storrs, and he’s put up at least 24 on the board in three of UConn’s four tourney games.

Kentucky Wildcats (28-10, 19-15-2 ATS) – The Cats might have been a bubble team just four weeks ago, but their run to the SEC Tournament Final is all that really assured they would be in the dance. They have been considered a dangerous team every step of the way, and once they cleared the hurdle of the undefeated Shockers, they were going to be well on their way to the Final Four. The talent is awfully rich at Kentucky, and Head Coach John Calipari knows that he has the best team in America in terms of talent. The only way that falls apart is if it all of a sudden loses that chemistry which it has built over the course of the last few weeks. The only concern from that standpoint is whether Willie Cauley-Stein had a ton to do with that chemistry. His season is likely over with an ankle injury.

 

[CNOTES]

Final Four Betting Angles

It’s onward to Dallas for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2014 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to the big ‘D’ this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Enjoy.

NCAA FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds not off an ATS win are 9-1 ATS (Florida)

#2 Seeds are 6-13 ATS (Wisconsin)

The last #7 Seed to appear in a Final Four game was 1984 (Connecticut)

#8 Seeds are 1-2 SU and ATS (Kentucky)

Teams who are 4-0 ATS in this tourney are 10-15 ATS (Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin)

Teams with same season revenge are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (Florida)

SEC teams are 5-2 ATS versus foes off an underdog win (Florida, Kentucky)

Big 10 underdogs off three straight ATS wins are 1-6 ATS (Wisconsin)

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

#1 Seed favorites are 7-2 ATS

#2 Seeds are 0-3 SUATS since 2006

#5 or worse Seeds are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS

Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-1 ATS

Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 1-5 ATS

Underdogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS

Underdogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 0-4 ATS

Big 10 teams are 1-7 SUATS

SEC teams are 3-0 SUATS since 2006

COACH ME UP

Connecticut’s Kevin Ollie is:
4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in NCAA tournament
3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs Big 10
1-0 and 0-1 ATS vs SEC
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Calipari
1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ryan

Florida’s Billy Donovan is:
34-11 SU and 27-17-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs AAC
9-10 SU and 8-10-1 ATS vs Big 10
218-114 SU and 169-156-7 ATS vs SEC
5-9 SU and 6-7-1 ATS vs Calipari
0-1 SU and 1-0 ATS vs Ollie
1-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS vs Ryan

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
42-13 SU and 31-23-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS vs AAC
10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS vs Big 10
95-36 SU and 64-65-2 ATS vs SEC
9-5 SU and 7-6-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ollie
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ryan

Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
20-12 SU and 19-12-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs AAC
9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS vs SEC
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Calipari
1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ollie

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played over the last 25 years.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have.

I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

 

[CNOTES]

UConn vs. Florida

April 3, 2014


Florida (36-2 straight up, 18-15-1 against the spread) hasn't tasted defeat since Dec. 2 when it lost a 65-64 decision at Connecticut when Shabazz Napier buried a buzzer beater to lift his team to victory. Napier killed the Gators with 26 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field and 5-of-8 connections from 3-point land.

In fairness to UF, it didn't have reserve freshman point guard Kasey Hill, who was out with a sprained ankle. Also, back-up freshman center Chris Walker wasn't eligible yet. Most of all, though, SEC Player of the Year Scottie Wilbekin sprained his ankle with about four minutes left and was getting treatment in the locker room at crunch time.

Therefore, Billy Donovan's team didn't have a point guard down the stretch. Nevertheless, Florida took the cash as a four-point underdog, while the 129 combined points stayed 'under' the 131-point total.

The game in Storrs featured 14 lead changes, including three in last minute, and six ties. The game was not without controversy, however. With UF leading 62-59 with 33.5 ticks remaining, Napier buried a 3-pointer to tie things up.

There was nothing wrong with the tying trey, but the whistle was absolute garbage. In vintage Reggie Miller-fashion, Napier stuck his leg out as Michael Frazier II breezed past him in contesting the shot attempt. All credit to Napier, as he sold it like the best used-car salesman in the business.

Napier made the free throw for the four-point play and a one-point UConn advantage. Frazier answered with a driving score to put the Gators back in front with 17.7 left. Then the real drama ensued.

As UConn tried to run a high pick-and-roll play for Napier off the dribble, UF perfectly defended it and forced Napier to pick up his dribble with a swarming trap. When Napier couldn't find anyone to pass to, he split the trap and started dribbling again.

Alas, no double dribble was called and Napier rushed a shot that was a hard brick off the glass. The ball came off so hard that it was deflected out into the waiting arms of Napier, who fired away from just inside the top of the key before the horn sounded and got nothing buy nylon.

In the losing effort, UF senior forward Casey Prather scored 19 points and grabbed seven rebounds. Patric Young added 17 points and seven boards. Wilbekin had 15 points before getting injured.

Since the loss, Florida has won 30 consecutive games to easily break a school record. The Gators, who are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 outings, have won all four NCAA Tournament games by double-digit margins.

After getting past Albany in a non-covering triumph in Orlando, UF advanced to its fourth straight Sweet 16 by spanking Pittsburgh 61-45 as a 5.5-point 'chalk.' Wilbekin was the catalyst with a game-high 21 points, including a 3-pointers at the first-half buzzer that gave the Gators momentum and a 27-22 advantage at intermission.

I was in Memphis last weekend and saw UF eliminate a talented UCLA squad by a 79-68 count as a 4.5-point favorite. Frazier was the hero with a game-high 19 points on 5-of-8 shooting from deep. He drained four consecutive 3-pointers at one point in the first half to allow the Gators to create some distance from the Bruins, who had won five in a row, including wins over Oregon, Stanford, Arizona and Stephen F. Austin.

Playing in its fourth straight Elite Eight, Florida's senior-laden team finally got the monkey off its back. Sure, it was fortunate to face a double-digit seed in Dayton so deep in the Tournament, but a similar scenario against Butler at the 2011 South Region finals in New Orleans didn't work out.

This time around, UF captured a 62-52 win as a 10.5-point favorite. Donovan's bunch used a 15-1 run late in the first half, including a fourth last-second Wilbekin 3-pointer in the last six games, to get past the Flyers, who never got closer than eight in the second half.

UConn (30-8 SU, 21-15 ATS) got a wake-up call after getting blasted 81-48 at Louisville as a nine-point underdog on March 8. Since then, Kevin Ollie's squad has won six of its last seven games both SU and ATS, including four NCAA Tourney wins over St. Joseph's, Villanova, Iowa St. and Michigan St. All six victories came over NCAA-bound foes, including Cincinnati and Memphis at the inaugural AAC Tournament.

Although UConn is in the Final Four as a No. 7 seed, I wouldn't say anything it has done has surprised me with the exception of the win over Sparty, a No. 4 seed that I expected to make it to North Texas.

In its NCAA opener, UConn needed overtime and outstanding free-throw shooting (18-of-20 for 90%) to get past St. Joe's. The Huskies hooked up their backers with an extremely fortunate cover as five-point favorites. Napier produced 24 points, eight rebounds, six assists and three steals. DeAndre Daniels added 18 points.

Ollie's team sent second-seeded Villanova packing with a 77-65 third-round win as a four-point underdog. Napier was limited to eight minutes of playing time in the first half after picking up two quick fouls. Nevertheless, the All-American scored 21 of his game-high 25 points in the second half to guide his team to the winner's circle.

UConn caught a pair of key breaks in the East Region semifinals (and finals) last weekend. First, the venue was Madison Square Garden in New York City, resulting in a huge crowd advantage for the Huskies thanks to their loyal fans who descended upon the Big Apple. Secondly, they faced an Iowa St. team playing without one of the Big 12's best players in Georges Niang, who broke his foot in the Cyclones' opening win of the Tourney.

Whatever the case, UConn got it done and took out Iowa St. 81-76 in a pick 'em affair. Daniels was the catalyst, erupting for 27 points and 10 rebounds. Napier contributed 19 points, five boards and five helpers.

In Sunday's Elite Eight showdown versus red-hot Michigan St., it was UConn's defense that was pivotal in a 60-54 win as a five-point underdog. Napier's game-high 25 points were the difference and his 9-for-9 shooting at the charity stripe helped put the game on ice.

As of early Thursday morning, most books had the Gators favored by 6.5 with a total of 126.5. Gamblers can take the Huskies on the money line for a +250 return.

The 'under' is 22-11-1 overall for Florida, although the 'over' appeared in its NCAA wins over Albany and UCLA. The 'under' is 22-13 overall for UConn, but the 'over' hit in its first three Tourney games before the 'under' appeared in its win over the Spartans.

Tip-off is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern on Saturday. CBS will have the broadcast from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The updated future odds at most books have UF as the even-money 'chalk' to win the title on Monday night. Kentucky has +330 odds (risk $100 to win $330), while Wisconsin and UConn are at +375 and +770, respectively.

-- This is UF's fourth trip to the Final Four in Donovan's storied 18-year tenure. He is 3-0 in the national semifinals. The Gators are in the Final Four for the fifth time in school history. Their only semifinal loss came in Charlotte in 1994 when they allowed an 11-point second-half lead to get away against Duke, which won in come-from-behind fashion thanks to the late-game heroics of a dude named Grant Hill.

-- UF is gunning for its third national title in the last nine years, while UConn is aiming for a fourth national championship since 1999.

-- During UF's 30-game winning streak, it has won by six points or more 24 times.

-- Napier averages team-highs in scoring (18.1 PPG), rebounding (5.9 RPG), assists (4.9 APG) and steals (1.7 SPG).

 

[CNOTES]

NL Central Showdown

April 4, 2014


St. Louis Cardinals (2-1) at Pittsburgh Pirates (2-1)

First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -115, St. Louis +105, Total: 7

The top two teams from the NL Central last season, the Cardinals and Pirates, meet up for the first time this year when they begin a three-game series on Friday night at PNC Park.

Reigning National League champion St. Louis was able to win its first series of the 2014 season by taking 2-of-3 games in Cincinnati, with each contest being decided by just one run. After splitting a pair of 1-0 decisions, the bats came alive in Thursday's rubber match as the Redbirds offense pounded out 11 hits, including five for extra bases. Pittsburgh also won 2-of-3 games to open its season against the Cubs, with each of those contests also being decided by just one run. The Pirates gave their fans some exciting baseball with a consecutive walk-off wins in extra innings to start the 2014 campaign before falling 3-2 on Thursday night.

Two talented 23-year-olds will get the call for this game as RHP Shelby Miller (15-9, 3.06 ERA in 2013) gets the start for St. Louis and RHP Gerrit Cole (10-7, 3.22 ERA in 2013) will take the mound for Pittsburgh. Even though the Cardinals have been the much better team over the previous two seasons, the Pirates have a slight 20-19 edge in this matchup over that time, and are even stronger when playing at home (11-7). Bettors should take notice that St. Louis is 85-46 (65%) facing a right-handed starter over the past two seasons, while Pittsburgh is an impressive 52-30 (63%) in the first half of the season since the start of 2013.

Shelby Miller is yet another player to come out of the Cardinals farm system and make an immediate impact with the team. In his first full season with the club in 2013, he was able to pitch 173.1 innings, striking out 169 batters (8.8 K/9) and winning 15 games in 31 starts. He did not look as great in 13.2 Spring Training innings though, pitching to a 5.93 ERA and allowing three homers, but he still struck out 13 batters. Miller has also pitched very poorly in this divisional matchup, going up against the Pirates four times, and coming away with a loss in each game. He’s compiled a 5.32 ERA (1.73 WHIP) over those starts and has allowed two home runs in each of the past three outings. Two of those long balls have come off the bat of C Russell Martin (3-for-7, 2 RBI) while both OF Andrew McCutchen (3-for-9) and OF Starling Marte (3-for-10, 2 XBH) have had success as well.

Big-bopper 3B Pedro Alvarez has gone only 1-for-10 against Miller, but the one hit left the park. St. Louis’ bullpen pitched 7.2 innings in its first series, allowing four runs (4.70 ERA) and striking out seven batters. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (0.00 ERA, 2 saves) has pitched two perfect innings for his first two saves of the season while striking out three batters.

Gerrit Cole figures to be a fixture in the Pirates’ rotation for plenty of years to come and started 19 games in his rookie campaign after a midseason call-up last year. He has impeccable control for a young pitcher, giving up just 2.2 walks per nine innings while allowing only 0.54 HR/9 in his 117.1 IP last season. Although the Cardinals were the top team in the NL last season, Cole had no trouble when facing them over two playoff games, going 1-1 in two starts with a 2.45 ERA (0.64 WHIP) and 10 strikeouts in 11 innings.

C Yadier Molina (2-for-6, 1 HR, 2 walks) did well against Cole in his limited at-bats while 2B Matt Carpenter (0-for-7) was completely fooled by the young righty. Pittsburgh has already had to use its bullpen heavily, throwing 17 innings over the first three games while allowing just three runs (1.59 ERA). Veteran Jason Grilli saved 33-of-35 games last season (94.3%), but he has already blown his one save opportunity this season. Grilli gave up three hits and a run with a one-run lead on Wednesday night, a game which was not settled until the 16th inning.

 

[CNOTES]

April Pitchers Report

March 29, 2014


Major League Baseball trades places with March Madness as the sports flavor of the month in April. And as we usher in America's favorite pastime, let's open the season with one of our favorite handicapping angles – good month/bad pitchers.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s April list.

I'll be back next month with May's Good Month Pitchers. Until then, let’s play ball!

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Colon, Bartolo (9-3)

Now with New York Mets, Colon won 18 games last season and posted a career-low ERA of 2.65. The amazing part is the rotund right-hander is doing this at age 40 and throwing fastballs 85 percent of the time. Word is Oakland catchers just kept calling fastballs and Colon decided on his own what kind of movement he wanted. Crazy!

*Correia, Kevin (10-5)

The soft-tossing Twins starter does not walk or strikeout many batters, gives up more hits than innings pitched and is a junkballer deluxe. Yet for some reason, he usually pitches pretty well in April before setting into normal patterns.

Hammel, Jason (13-3)

Signed as free agent by the Chicago Cubs in February, he is expected to begin in the bullpen as a long reliever and start only out of necessity.

Kershaw, Clayton (11-5)

The best pitcher in baseball has the full package, able to command the fastball to certain locations, a cliff-diving curveball and if he regains the feel for the changeup, well, Kershaw becomes even better. Not good news for MLB hitters.

*Lohse, Kyle (11-4)

Like most pitchers that leave St. Louis as free agents, Lohse regressed putting on a Milwaukee uniform. At 35, he’s unlikely to pull a Colon, but if he continues to throw pitches just outside the strike zone that are tantalizing to batters, he should produce a winning first month of the season.

Nova, Ivan (8-4)

The Yankees are hoping for big things from Nova, after he a recorded a 2.70 ERA in his last 16 starts in 2013. His more mature attitude and sinker has elevated his game.

*Sabathia, CC (11-5)

A slimmed down Sabathia hopes to return to prior form as the ace of the Bronx Bombers. The fastball lacks the same velocity, which is why he’s worked on slowing down his changeup even further to have a greater separation to the batter’s eye. The still tall left-hander, of a solid spring camp, knows how to pitch and needs to spot his tosses effectively.

Scherzer, Max (11-5)

Scherzer became an elite pitcher last season, which is why Detroit is still a threat to win a World Series. While some will question his intelligence in turning down 140+ million to stay with the Tigers, his curveball was devastating last season and he dominated right-hand hitters to the tune of a .165 batting average.

*Shields, James (13-4)

The Royals ace just knows how to pitch, working up and down and changing speeds effortlessly. This season he is playing on an improved Kansas City squad which has confidence from last year, Shields should start fast again.

*Weaver, Jered (9-3)

If the Angels are to return to the postseason, Weaver has to be a 17-18 game winner. His fastball and punchouts continue to decrease and he spent the spring trying to air it out, while doing a better job with location. His curve just rolls off the table and if he regains the bite of his dipping change, he could have a return to prior form.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

*Buehrle, Mark (5-11)

Talk about your innings-eater! Buehrle has pitched 200 or more innings in 13 consecutive years… the only other pitcher to that since 1980 is Greg Maddux. The crafty lefty has started poorly the last three seasons it might continue north of the border again.

Floyd, Gavin (5-10)

Floyd attempts to return from reconstructive elbow surgery for Atlanta and is likely out of action this April, hoping to return to action in May.

Hughes, Philip (4-8)

Still only 26, the former Yankee gets a chance to start over in a less stressful environment in Minnesota, which could allow him just to pitch. One problem, the Twins stink.

*Jackson, Edwin (5-11)

Jackson was 8-18 with the Cubs last season and his 4.98 ERA was his highest since his final year in Tampa Bay in 2007. What are his prospects for improving at 30 years old on one of the worst teams in baseball? You decide.

Latos, Mat (4-9)

After having off-season elbow surgery, Latos had surgery to repair a torn meniscus cartilage in his left knee on Valentine’s Day. Latos will begin the season on the disabled list, and he will remain in Arizona after the team leaves camp. The plan is for him to have at least five starts in spring before pitching in the regular season.

*Saunders, Joe (5-10)

With injuries and underachieving pitchers, Texas is forced to turn to Saunders, who is coming off a 11-16 season in Seattle, where his ERA was 5.26 and he surrendered 26 percent more hits than innings pitched (232 vs. 183). Given his past, the Rangers better score runs if they expect to win when Saunders starts. FYI: he compiled a sky-high 3.69 WHIP this spring.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida or UConn? Who covers in Final Four
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Florida Gators vs. Connecticut Huskies (+6, 126.5)

THREE REASONS FLORIDA COVERS

Defense

No team remaining in the hunt for the NCAA championship defends better than the Gators, who allowed the third-fewest points per game in the nation during the regular season and have surrendered more than 60 points just once in seven postseason games. The Huskies have shown they can score - putting up at least 75 points in three of their four tournament games - but they didn't have to face the relentless press of a Florida team that forces opponents into bad shots and sloppy turnovers.

Close spreads

The 2013-14 Gators are at their best in games where they're narrow favorites. Florida has gone 6-1 ATS in games where it was a six-point fave or lower, and 3-1 in games in which it was the underdog, including an ATS victory over UConn on Dec. 2. The Gators are installed as a six-point favorite for Saturday's national semifinal.

Free throws

The Huskies make a living from the foul line, ranking in the Top 10 nationally at 77.4 percent, but will find the sledding a lot tougher against Florida. The Gators have been among the stingiest teams in the country when it comes to limiting free throws. They held opponents to 20 or fewer foul shots 23 times in 34 regular-season and conference tournament games and have yielded an average of fewer than 11 attempts in their four NCAA tournament contests.


THREE REASONS UCONN COVERS

Momentum

Sure, the Gators have strung together an impressive winning streak but the bulk of that came during their weak SEC schedule. The Huskies, on the other hand, have been able to find their form against the toughest teams in the country. In fact, if you take out two losses to Louisville, Connecticut has won nine straight going back to early February, going 7-2 ATS in those contests.

Confidence

The last team to beat the mighty Gators was UConn, upending Florida 65-64 at home – a game in which the Huskies were actually 4-point favorites. Teams like Florida thrive on having the mental edge over its opponent – beating them before they even touch the court. However, UConn is not afraid of big bad UF and has just enough confidence, momentum and swagger to snap Florida’s 30-game winning run. The Huskies forced the Gators to commit 16 turnovers in that first meeting and limited them to just 3-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc while answering with 11 3-pointers of their own.

Shabazz Napier

Napier is doing one hell of a Kemba Walker impression in the tournament, carrying UConn to the Final Four much like his former teammate did in 2011. He’s scoring over 23 points per game and has hit big shot after big shot. The Huskies offense throws a lot of on the ball screens at their opponent’s backcourt, looking to break Napier for an easy look. He went for 26 in the first meeting with Florida, including a 17-foot jumper to win the game as time expired.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB

Saturday, April 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Final Four betting preview: UConn vs. Florida
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut Huskies vs. Florida Gators (-6, 126.5)

Florida won its 30th straight game to reach the Final Four in north Texas, where they will face the last team to beat them - Connecticut. The top-seeded Gators swept through the South regional and have a chance to avenge both their losses this with the East regional champion Huskies in the mix along with Wisconsin looming in a potential championship game. To get there, Florida will have to find a way to stop Shabazz Napier.

Napier was a freshman on the team Kemba Walker put on his back and carried to a national championship in 2011 and is using a similar model in his senior campaign. The point guard scored 17 of his 25 points in the second half of the regional final victory over Michigan State and has made a habit out of clutch performances in carrying Connecticut. The Gators have a quartet of seniors on which to lean and rarely need any one player to take over the game offensively.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 6.5-point faves but now sit -6. The total opened 125 and has been bet upt 126.5.

INJURY REPORT: UConn: G Pat Lenehan (Questionable, undisclosed)

WHY BET UCONN (30-8 SU, 21-15 ATS, 13-22 O/U): Napier, who was named to the Wooden All-American team Monday, nailed a buzzer-beater to give the Huskies a 65-64 home victory over Florida on Dec. 2, capping a 26-point game. Napier hit five 3-pointers in that contest - two more than the entire Gators team - and has been strong from beyond the arc with 12-of-23 finding the bottom of the net in the last three games. DeAndre Daniels provided plenty of support with 27 points and 10 rebounds in the Sweet 16 win over Iowa State and helped keep Connecticut in the game in the first half of the regional final against Michigan State before Napier got going.

WHY BET FLORIDA (36-2 SU, 18-15-1 ATS, 11-22-1 O/U): The Gators are a dominant defensive team and held their four previous NCAA tournament opponents to an average of 55 points, with only UCLA breaking 60 in a 79-68 decision in the Sweet 16. Florida won each of those four games by double figures and had little trouble slowing down Dayton with a full-court press in the regional final. “One of the things I think it all comes down to is on the defensive end of the floor,” Florida coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “It’s very, very difficult to go on runs if you don’t get stops. I think a lot of our runs can be predicated on the fact that defensively we’ve gotten stops, and stops get you out on the break.”

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.
* Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Huskies last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 7-3 in Gators last 10 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent of wagers are on the Huskies.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kentucky or Wisconsin? Who covers in Final Four
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)

THREE REASONS KENTUCKY COVERS

Familiarity with Big Ten

Kentucky will already be prepared for the Big Ten style of basketball when it takes on Wisconsin Saturday. The Wildcats beat Big Ten regular season champions Michigan with a last second three pointer in the Elite Eight and showed that their athleticism is a distinct advantage. Wisconsin may have split the season series with Michigan, but after besting a Wolverines squad that won the Big Ten quite easily this year Kentucky deserves to be the favorite for the second-straight game against Big Ten opposition.

Improved shooting

In their three tournament wins over higher-seeded opponents in Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan, the Wildcats shot over their season average from the field. In two of those games (Wichita State, Michigan) Kentucky shot well over 50 percent, which allowed it to outscore two of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country to get to the Final Four. With their rebounding advantage and interior presence in Julius Randle, when Kentucky is hitting its shots, the Wildcats become nearly impossible to put away, as the Wolverines found out when their double digit lead quickly evaporated Sunday.

Marcus Lee

The freshman who scored just eight points since January came up in a big way for the Wildcats against Michigan, scoring 10 points and putting up eight rebounds off the bench in the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein. Already holding a +6.8 rebounding margin advantage over the Badgers, having another big man like Lee who can jump out of the building and put back misses above the rim will help the Wildcats' chances - especially if the questionable Cauley-Stein can contribute minutes. Having four post players that can slow Wisconsin star-center Frank Kaminsky would give Kentucky head coach John Calipari a significant advantage on the inside.


THREE REASONS WISCONSIN COVERS

Frank Kaminsky

The gangly, 7-foot junior center can do it all, and the boxscores prove it, particularly in the last two games. In the West Regional semifinal against Baylor, Kaminsky scored 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the floor and a 3-for-4 effort at the free-throw line. But perhaps the larger contribution was his six blocked shots, and he also had four rebounds in a 69-52 blowout, with the Badgers a 4-point favorite.

In Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Arizona, he scored 28 points in just about every way possible – 16 on 2-pointers, nine via a 3-for-5 effort from 3-point range, and another three from the free throw line. And he also had seven offensive boards among his 11 total rebounds as Wisconsin pulled out the 64-63 overtime win as a 3.5-point pup.

Points in the paint

Although the Badgers were outscored 30-26 in the lane against Arizona, in their four-game run to the Final Four, they have put up 118 points in the paint, while allowing 84. Wisconsin rarely settles for bad shots.

Stepping up versus big teams

This team has consistently risen to the challenge against major talent. As Michael Beller of SI.com pointed out, the Badgers are the only team in the country to beat the regular-season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. That includes SU and ATS victories over three of the NCAA Tournament’s four No. 1 seeds: a 59-53 win over Florida as a 5.5-point home chalk in the second game of the year; a 48-38 win at Virginia catching 4 points in December; and last weekend’s 64-63 OT win against Arizona as a 3.5-point ‘dog to reach the Final Four. The Badgers also posted a 75-62 February win as 4-point pups at Michigan – which reached the Elite Eight before losing to Kentucky last weekend.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB

Saturday, April 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Final Four betting preview: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)

Kentucky was anointed the top team in the country prior to the season and suddenly has an opportunity to emerge as the best at the end of it after a bumpy ride. The eighth-seeded Wildcats face second-seeded Wisconsin in Saturday’s Final Four at Arlington, Texas, and are brimming with confidence due to an impressive tournament run through the Midwest regional. The Badgers qualified for the national semifinals with a solid win over Arizona in the West regional final.

Wisconsin can match the school record for victories by reaching the national title game but will be at an athletic disadvantage against the Wildcats and the players are weary of hearing about it. “You’re in the Final Four, you obviously did something right,” Badgers guard Josh Gasser said at a press conference. “Kentucky deserves credit for a being a good team and I think so do we. We’ve beaten a ton of good teams this year and I think that speaks for itself. We don’t really care what the outside perception is of us.” Wisconsin is in the Final Four for the first time since 2000 while Kentucky is back for the third time in five seasons during John Calipari’s coaching tenure.

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Badgers opened as 2-point dogs and have been bet to +1.5. The total opened 138.5 and is up to 139.

INJURY REPORT: Kentucky: F Willie Cauley-Stein (Questionable, ankle)

WHY BET KENTUCKY (28-10 SU, 19-15-2 ATS, 15-19 O/U): Double-double machine Julius Randle (15.1 points, 10.7 rebounds) is the best NBA prospect of the starting freshmen but guard Aaron Harrison (14.1) was the hero in the Elite Eight victory over Michigan when he drained the game-winning 3-pointer with 2.6 seconds remaining. “I think we all just learned it’s all about winning,” Harrison told reporters at a midweek press conference when asked about Kentucky’s strong tournament showing. “It doesn’t matter individually what you’re doing. You just have to do whatever you can for the team to win.” Guards James Young (14.1) and Andrew Harrison (11 per game) also average in double digits.

WHY BET WISCONSIN (30-7 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-17 O/U): Center Frank Kaminsky (14.1 points) had 28 points and 11 rebounds against Arizona as he continues his transformation from role player last season to go-to scorer. “I really can’t explain it,” Kaminsky told reporters. “It’s just something more of an opportunity this year than in the past. But I can’t thank my teammates enough for helping me get through this.” Guard Ben Brust averages 12.8 points and is 12-of-23 from 3-point range in the NCAA tournament, while forward Sam Dekker (12.4) and point guard Traevon Jackson (10.7) also average in double digits.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Badgers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are on Wisconsin.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Florida Gators vs. UConn Huskies (+6, 126.5)

Gators’ tame defense vs. Huskies’ turnover tenacity

A big part of the Huskies’ improbable Final Four run is their ability to win the turnover battle. Connecticut has 34 total turnovers in the tournament compared to the 54 it has forced opponents to hand over. The Huskies coughed the ball up just six times in the win over Michigan State, while the Spartans posted 16 turnovers.

Florida’s best way to stop Shabazz Napier is to get aggressive on the perimeter, hedge hard on the Huskies’ screen-heavy offense, and make Napier give up the ball. That means those defenders off the ball will need to jump the passing lanes and force Napier to make a bad pass – something they haven’t been great at in the NCAA. The Gators have forced foes to make only 9.3 turnovers the past three games (down from their season average of 13.5) and actually lost the turnover battle, 12-8, versus UCLA in the Sweet 16.


Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-1.5, 139)

Badgers’ big-shot bigs vs. Wildcats' defensive size

The Wildcats have bullied their way to the Final Four, using their size advantage at almost every position to impose their will on opponents. Kentucky’s beef plugs up the paint and allows the 6-foot-6 guard trio of James Young and the Harrison Bros. to pester the perimeter. However, against the Badgers, Kentucky could find that defense spread thin with Wisconsin’s frontcourt demanding respect from beyond the arc.

The Badgers force opposing forwards to step outside of the paint and get their heels above the 3-point arc, especially Frank Kaminsky. The 7-footer has shown his touch in the tournament with some massive 3-point buckets and shoots nearly 38 percent from distance. Fellow forward Sam Dekker is just as potent from the perimeter. Kentucky is already down a big body with Willie Cauley-Stein out and could find its defense out of order with Wisconsin’s sharp-shooting big men pulling everyone out of the paint.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Update

SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Game 817-818: Fresno State at Siena (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 62.040; Siena 59.112
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 3; 132
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 1; 136
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-1); Under

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday, April 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Connecticut - 6:09 PM ET Connecticut +7 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Florida - Under 127 500 *****

Kentucky - 8:49 PM ET Wisconsin +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Wisconsin - Over 138.5 500 *****

 

[varkeyboy]

2-0! Hoping to go 4-0 =)

 

[CNOTES]

Varkey have to settle for:

Date	WLT	Pct	Net Units	Record
04/05/14	3-*0-*1	100.00%	+*1500	Detai

 

[varkeyboy]

Varkey have to settle for:

Date	WLT	Pct	Net Units	Record
04/05/14	3-*0-*1	100.00%	+*1500	Detai

Cheers.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAA Championship opening line report: Kentucky opens as 3-point fave

With a No. 8 seed facing a No. 7 seed for college basketball’s national championship Monday night, everybody’s office pool brackets are in tatters.

But therein lies the beauty of the NCAA Tournament: at least you can still bet on it.

No. 7 seed Connecticut knocked off overall No. 1 seed Florida 63-53 as a 7-point underdog Saturday to open the Final Four, and No. 8 seed Kentucky followed with a thrilling 74-73 win over No. 2 seed Wisconsin as a 1-point favorite.

Just as Kentucky pretty much had to be the favorite against Wisconsin – based on its huge run through the tournament on the backs of a bunch of freshman – the Wildcats will be favored against the Huskies. The opening line was set at -3, with the total between 132.5 and 133.5 for Monday’s finale at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.

“The reason we are favoring the Wildcats is that, while UConn has the better backcourt, Kentucky has the much better frontcourt, even if Willey Cauley-Stein isn’t playing,” said Sportsbook.com oddsmaker Mike Perry, who posted a 132.5 total.

Cauley-Stein was hurt in the Wildcats’ Sweet 16 win over instate rival Louisville, but it hasn’t mattered – particularly with the insane late-game antics of guard Aaron Harrison, whose 3-pointer knocked out Michigan in the Elite Eight, and whose 3-pointer from nearly the same spot eliminated the Badgers on Saturday night.

Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller joined Perry in making Kentucky a 3-point chalk, though he pegged the total a point higher at 133.5. But Miller doesn’t think the public will follow the favorite.

“The way UConn has been playing, I think the public takes the dog,” Miller said. “How long can Kentucky rely on a 3-pointer at the buzzer?”

UConn guards Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright have impressed Perry, and against Florida, the duo combined for 25 points, nine assists, nine rebounds and five steals, with just three turnovers. But Perry is sold on Harrison, saying the clutch shooter makes the backcourt matchup much less of a mismatch.

“Napier and Boatright have been exceptional all tournament, but Harrison keeps hitting clutch shots for the ‘Cats, so the disparity in talent with the guards is much closer than it is for the big men, with UK having a decided advantage,” Perry said.

 

[CNOTES]

Huskies, 'Cats tangle

April 7, 2014


Kentucky (29-10) vs. UConn (31-8)

NCAA Tournament: Final Four National Final
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, TX
Tip-off: Monday, 9:10 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -2.5, Total: 135.5

Two teams looking to cap an incredible NCAA Tournament run close out the 2013-14 college basketball season on Monday night as eight-seeded Kentucky takes on seventh-seeded Connecticut at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.

The Huskies pulled off a shocker on Saturday as the team knocked off seven-point favorite Florida, 63-53. UConn (22-15 ATS overall, 7-5 ATS on neutral courts) trailed 16-4 early in the game, but rallied back to defeat the Gators for the second time this season, outshooting them 56% FG to 39% FG. That makes the team 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) in its past dozen games, with both losses coming to Louisville. While Shabazz Napier has been the best player throughout the NCAA Tournament, it was DeAndre Daniels that had the big game against Florida. The 6-foot-9 junior finished the national semifinal game with 20 points and 10 rebounds, showing the ability to score in many different ways.

While the Huskies do not have a lot of bulk in their frontcourt, they have made up for it by pressuring their opponents and doing a great job of contesting the rim. Entering the national championship, the Huskies rank third in Division I in blocked shots this season (226), and contesting the rim will play a huge role in this game against a Kentucky team that has been dominating opponents on the glass. The Wildcats lead the country in total rebounds (1,575), while also ranking second in rebound margin (9.7 RPG). And they are even better than their opponent in turning away shot with 231 blocks (2nd in nation). In the 74-73 win against Wisconsin on Saturday, Kentucky (19-17-1 ATS overall, 8-2-1 ATS on neutral courts) had just one blocked shot, but was able to win the rebounding margin by five, giving the club a +9.0 RPG margin during the NCAA Tournament, outrebounding all five NCAA opponents.

As he had done the previous two games, Aaron Harrison hit the game winning three-pointer versus the Badgers, knocking down a 24-footer from the left wing with 5.7 seconds left. The Wildcats shot 50% from the field on Saturday, but Harrison’s winner was only the second made three-point shot of the game (2-for-5 threes). Both clubs have favorable betting trends for this championship game as Connecticut is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season, while Kentucky's John Calipari is 9-0 ATS after two straight wins by 6 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997, outscoring these teams by a +9.7 PPG margin. These two teams last met in the 2011 Final Four, with the eventual champion Huskies escaping with the 56-55 victory. UConn also beat 9-point underdog Kentucky in the 2006 NCAA Tournament by a narrow 87-83 margin, but the Wildcats won two regular-season games in between, both on a neutral court, prevailing 64-61 in 2009 and rolling to an 84-67 rout in 2010.

Kentucky is a good offensive team with 75.3 PPG (60th in nation), but the club shoots poorly at 45.5% FG (106th in Div. I), 33.3% threes (212th in nation) and 68.4% FT (221st in Div. I). The team also has a poor turnover margin (minus-1.3 TOPG) and a paltry 11.2 APG (284th in nation). But the Wildcats know how to attack the glass with 14.5 offensive RPG (5th in nation), and that is a big reason they lead the country in free throw attempts (1,122). They also contest every shot on defense, limiting opponents to 66.8 PPG (84th in Div. I) on 41.1% FG (58th in nation), 32.2% threes (68th in Div. I). Kentucky has been on an incredible run as of late behind the shooting of SG Aaron Harrison (13.9 PPG, 36% threes, 2.9 RPG). Harrison is going on one of the most magical runs in recent tournament history, hitting three consecutive go-ahead shots from the three-point line in the final minute of each contest. At 6-foot-6, he will have a big height advantage against the smaller guards of the Huskies. If he can continue to shoot like he has done so far in the NCAA Tournament (14-of-25 threes, 56%), Kentucky will be in great shape.

PF Julius Randle (15.1 PPG, 10.5 RPG) saw his streak of four consecutive NCAA tournament double-doubles end on Saturday, but still played a huge role in the win over Wisconsin with 16 points and five rebounds, giving him 15.8 PPG and 10.6 RPG in the NCAA Tournament. He is simply too strong for opposing forwards to guard, but he also does a tremendous job of scoring off two dribbles. Even with 7-foot C Willie Cauley-Stein (6.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG), the team's best shot blocker (2.9 BPG), unavailable to play due to an injured ankle, the Wildcats are still loaded with big bodies to fill the paint and cause the smaller Huskies loads of trouble.

Seven-foot C Dakari Johnson (5.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG), 6-foot-9 PF Marcus Lee (2.5 PPG, 1.5 RPG) and 6-foot-8 PF Alex Poythress (5.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG) combined for 22 points and 15 rebounds in the semifinal win over Wisconsin. Swingman James Young (14.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG) led the team on Saturday with 17 points (5-of-11 FG, 6-of-7 FT), and also added five boards, giving him 11.8 PPG and 4.6 RPG for the NCAA Tournament. PG Andrew Harrison (10.9 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.1 RPG) has not been getting talked about as much as his twin brother, but he has played well all tournament long with 11.6 PPG and 5.0 APG. Pace and tempo of this game will play a huge role in the outcome of the game. If this turns into a battle in the paint, the more physical Wildcats will be in a great position to get the win. But if the experienced UConn guards can control the pace of the game and deny the Kentucky entry passes into the lane, the superior shooting Huskies could get their second national title in four seasons.

Connecticut has been a terrific shooting team all season both from the foul line (77.4% FG, 5th in nation) and from behind the arc (38.9% threes, 25th in Div. I). But this is not a high-powered offense, as the team scores only 72.1 PPG (133rd in nation) on 45.0% FG (also 133rd in Div. I). The Huskies have a much better turnover margin (+1.5, 77th in nation) than their Monday opponent, but don't get to the line as often with 21.0 FTA per game. But UConn's defense has been unbelievable in the past two games, holding Michigan State and Florida to 53.5 PPG on 38.9% FG. For the season, the team limits opponents to 63.5 PPG (36th in Div. I) on 39.2% FG (13th in nation) and 33.0% threes (103rd in Div. I). The one big deficiency on this team is rebounding (+0.4 RPG margin, 179th in nation), which could loom large against the glass-eating Wildcats. The Huskies continue to be carried by PG Shabazz Napier (17.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.9 APG), who leads the team in scoring, rebounding and assists. He does a great job shooting the ball from the three-point line (40.3% threes this season), but is also terrific at getting to the basket. He has put together an unbelievable run in the NCAA Tournament -- similar to Kemba Walker in 2011 when Napier was a freshman -- with Napier averaging 21.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 4.8 APG during the five wins. In the past four games, he has shot 52% FG, 54% threes (14-of-26) and 91% FT (21-of-23). If he is able to hit a couple shots from the outside early, then he becomes nearly impossible to guard.

SF DeAndre Daniels (13.2 PPG, 43% threes, 6.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG) has also played his best basketball as of late, averaging 19.7 PPG (59% FG) and 9.3 RPG in the past three contests, which includes two games of 20+ points and 10 rebounds. At 6-foot-9, Daniels is a real mismatch, as he possesses the skills of a two guard. While the Huskies will need him to score, he will have to play big on the glass against the likes of Randle and Johnson. SG Ryan Boatright (12.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.5 SPG) does a lot of things on the court, but his biggest strength is his quickness. Like Napier, he puts pressure on the defense by getting to the basket at will. Not only has he stepped up his offense in the NCAA Tournament with 11+ points in each win (13.6 PPG), but he has played his best defense of the season too. His relentless on-ball pressure will play a huge role in this game, as the Huskies will need to pester the Wildcats freshman backcourt and not allow them get into their half-court sets. Seven-foot C Amida Brimah (4.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.3 BPG) has limited offensive skills, but shoots 65% FG and does a great job of protecting the rim with 2.3 BPG in just 16.3 MPG. SF Niels Giffey (8.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG) has been an excellent three-point shooter this season at 48.3% (56-of-116), but he has been ice-cold over his past four games, making just 1-of-11 threes, including 0-for-7 in the past two contests. But despite his cold shooting, Giffey has done a nice job on the glass with 6.8 RPG over the past four games. The Wildcats are going to focus their defense on the trio of Napier, Boatright and Daniels, and that will make it imperative for Giffey to knock down the outside shot when he's open.