Cnotes NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 29

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NCAA West Regional final betting preview: Wisconsin vs. Arizona
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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Arizona Wildcats (-3, 130)

Either Arizona or Wisconsin is going to end a lengthy Final Four drought when the two programs square off in Saturday’s West regional final at Anaheim, Calif. The top-seeded Wildcats haven’t reached the national semifinals since 2001 when famed coach Lute Olson was still at the top of the profession. Second-seeded Wisconsin’s last appearance was one year earlier when Dick Bennett surprisingly guided the eighth-seeded Badgers into the Final Four.

Wildcats coach Sean Miller has received attention this month as perhaps the best active coach to not reach the Final Four but Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan also should be part of that discussion. The Badgers have only reached this stage once previously in his 13-season tenure – 2005 before losing to North Carolina – and his players have become well aware he hasn’t reached the Final Four. “Yeah, that would be a very special thing to do,” said guard Ben Brust after Thursday’s convincing victory over Baylor, “but we also know that he’s not going to let us look too far ahead.”

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Wildcats opened as 3-point favorites and the total opened 130.

INJURY REPORT: Arizona, F Brandon Ashley (out for season)

WHY BET WISCONSIN (29-7 SU, 20-16 ATS, 19-16 O/U): The Badgers are much prolific offensively than they typically are and have good balance, led by center Frank Kaminsky (13.7 average), guard Ben Brust (13 per game) and forward Sam Dekker (12.5). But the trademark defensive tenacity Ryan preaches has certainly been on display in the tournament as the Badgers are allowing just 54.7 points per game and totally shut down a red-hot Baylor squad (31.6 percent from the field) in Thursday’s 69-52 victory. Wisconsin’s win total is third-best in school history – two shy of the school mark set by the 2007-08 squad.

WHY BET ARIZONA (33-4 SU, 21-15 ATS, 13-20 O/U): Pac-12 Player of the Year Nick Johnson was scoreless on 0-of-10 shooting over the first 37 minutes of Thursday’s victory against San Diego State before scoring 15 points in the final 2:46 to help the Wildcats secure a 70-64 victory. “I’ve had a few games like this this year,” a relieved Johnson said afterward. “It’s unfortunately been our losses, so I just try to stay with it.” The Wildcats will need a more consistent effort from Johnson (16.3) against the Badgers and will also continue to rely on the inside duo of Aaron Gordon (12.5 points) and rising Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.1).

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
* Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of wagers are on Wisconsin.


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NCAAB

Saturday, March 29

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NCAA West Regional betting news and notes: Wisconsin wipes out fastbreak
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The West Regional presented few surprises as the two top teams from that side of the bracket battle for a ticket to Texas Saturday. Check out our betting news and notes for the West Regional final.

No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (-3, 130)

If Arizona hopes to live up to its seed and advance out of Anaheim, Calif., to the Final Four, it had better hope its half-court game is in good order. Wisconsin (29-7 SU, 20-16 ATS) didn’t allow a single fastbreak point in its 69-52 rout Baylor. In fact, Wisconsin has gone a game-and-a-half without giving up a fastbreak point, shutting down Oregon in the final 20 minutes of a Round of 32 victory.

Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes that Wisconsin has been a dominating force in the paint during the NCAA tournament, with much of the credit going to gangly 7-foot-center Frank Kaminsky. The Badgers have outscored their three NCAA foes in the lane by a combined 92-54, helping them win and cover in all three games. In Thursday’s bouncing of Baylor, Kaminsky had 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting and was key in hassling the Bears near the basket, with six blocked shots.

Arizona coach Sean Miller continues to prove he’s worth backing anytime he’s leading the better-seeded team – at least straight up, if not against the spread. In 10 years as a head coach (Xavier, Arizona), Miller has never lost SU to a worse-seeded team in the NCAA tournament. He’s 3-0 this year (1-2 ATS), his seventh trip to the Big Dance, after Thursday’s 70-64 victory over No. 4 seed San Diego State as a 7.5-point favorite.

Arizona (33-4 SU, 21-15 ATS) has made a living off stingy defense all season and did likewise in rallying for the win over San Diego State. The Wildcats held the Aztecs to just 38.9 percent shooting – right around Arizona’s season average of 38.0 percent, fourth-best in the nation. The Wildcats, meanwhile, shot 47.9 percent, bolstered by a torrid 61.9-percent effort in the second half.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 29

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Saturday's Elite 8 prop bets: Florida to start hot
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It's not a huge surprise, but odds favor the Florida Gators to get out to a quick start against Cinderella Dayton. The Gators are favored to crack the double-digit mark first (-180), then heavily favored to break past 20-points first (-270).

Here are all your prop odds for Saturday's Elite 8 match-ups (Odds courtesy of LVH Sportsbook):

DAYTON VS FLORIDA

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 12.0 -110
UNDER 12.0 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 17.0 -110
UNDER 17.0 -110

TEAM TO SCORE 10 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
DAYTON +160
FLORIDA -180

TEAM TO SCORE 20 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
DAYTON +230
FLORIDA -270

TOTAL POINTS BY: JORDAN SIBERT (DAYTON)
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: DEVIN OLIVER (DAYTON)
OVER 10.5 -110
UNDER 10.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: SCOTTIE WILBEKIN (FLORIDA)
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: MICHAEL FRAZIER II (FLORIDA)
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110


WISCONSIN VS ARIZONA

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

TEAM TO SCORE 10 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
WISCONSIN EVEN
ARIZONA -120

TEAM TO SCORE 20 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
WISCONSIN +105
ARIZONA -125

TOTAL POINTS BY: BEN BRUST (WISCONSIN)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: TRAEVON JACKSON (WISCONSIN)
OVER 9.5 -110
UNDER 9.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: NICK JOHNSON (ARIZONA)
OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: AARON GORDON (ARIZONA)
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 29

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The Game Inside The Game: Can the Gators be chased?
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And now on to the Elite Eight, as we search for some of the key matchup issues on the court that will most translate to the final score, searching for the “Game Inside The Game”.

Dayton vs. Florida: Can the Gators be chased?

When lines reach double figures, handicapping approaches must change. It is not about which team has the advantages to win, since there is already a major market consensus on that (in this game, Florida is as high as -750 on the Money Line). Instead, it becomes which team can best maximize the opportunities that will exist in the most likely game flow. The most likely, of course, being Florida having some degree of command. And that may be problematic for Dayton.

The savvy of the veteran Florida cast has been on display throughout the season, but where the poise and chemistry have been most evident in this tournament has been at crunch time. Not only are they well-versed in the various settings that an end-game can bring, but as a game progresses their experience also enables them to uncover weaknesses in an opponent.

Over the past two rounds, Florida has taken possession of the ball 29 times in the final 10:00 of play. On 22 of those trips the Gators put points on the board before the other side touched the ball again. That is a remarkable efficiency vs. the level of opposition they were up against. Yet it should not come as a surprise – they are rarely going to turn the ball over, and have the patience and confidence to work the shot clock until they find the look they want. As an opposing defense gets desperate when playing from behind, mistakes happen. Scottie Wilbekin & Co. are adept at recognizing and exploiting them.

One of the prime characteristics to look for when backing a big underdog is a team that has depth, and will continue to play hard regardless of the score. It brings the prospect of a Back Door Cover into play. Dayton has those qualities. But is it enough? Is this a favorite that may be too difficult to chase?


Wisconsin vs. Arizona: Is there enough “Swing Time”?

Extolling the virtues of the Arizona defense need not be long-winded – the Wildcats
are loaded with size and athleticism, and also the will to get down in a stance and guard to the end of the shot clock. They are #1 in the nation in both defensive efficiency and effective FG percentage allowed, and of 351 teams they are #347 in the amount of time it takes the opposition to get off a shot. If anything the defense might even be under-valued, because of how many easy points they generate for an otherwise mediocre offense.

But now comes a unique challenge – Bo Ryan and his “swing” offense. Ryan has compiled a 291-113 record playing in a tough conference despite having few big-time talents around. Current Badgers in the NBA: Devin Harris, Jon Leuer, Greg Stiemsma. Seriously, that is it. But this time around he has six players in the rotation that can score, and except for Nigel Hayes, they are all accurate beyond the three-point arc.

So now to the heart of the matter. Since his first season in Madison, Ryan is 17-6 ATS as a non-Big 10 underdog, with 10 outright wins and an O.T. loss. Using that non-conference measure is important, because it means charting teams that have little experience vs. his playbook. Sean Miller now gets only one day of practice to sort through those schemes, and he has decisions to make.

A matchup issue that has made this season’s Wisconsin offense so effective is the ability of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker to step out and convert from long range. That means Wildcat interior defensive ace Kaleb Tarczewski being taken away from the basket to guard the perimeter, something that he rarely does. Can the Arizona defense continue to play well if it is “inverted”, with Tarczewski and Aaron Gordon having to get out to shooters? Might Miller throw in some zone wrinkles? Is there enough time?

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday, March 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dayton - 6:09 PM ET Florida -10.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Florida - Over 134 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Wisconsin - 8:49 PM ET Wisconsin +3.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Arizona - Over 132 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo:Sunday's six-pack

-- $968,000 per start Clayton Kershaw is on the DL......uh oh.

-- 76ers 123, Pistons 98-- Good; no one deserves to suffer this much.

-- Florida 62, Dayton 52-- Congrats to the Flyers on a great run.

-- Wisconsin 64, Arizona 63 ot-- Rough day for the Miller family.

-- UNLV coach Dave Rice turned down South Florida, which was going to double his salary; not a great week for USF.

-- Kevin Ware, who broke his leg during Louisville's national title run LY, is transferring elsewhere to finish his college career. He has two years left.

*****

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: What I'm looking for this baseball season

13) Dodgers have an enormous payroll, have already sold 3M+ tickets, have huge expectations; Kershaw is on the DL, if they get off to slow start, does Don Mattingly get the early boot?

12) Instant replay system looks like it'll work well, but you just know its going to have some issues early on. Managers can challenge plays in the first six innings; curious to see how many plays get challenged.

11) Red Sox won 28 more games than they did LY, won World Series; they went 95-67 in year following their last two world titles. Would 95 wins this year get them back to the playoffs?

10) Indians won 24 more games LY than they did in 2012; will there be a natural regression, or does Terry Francona really have a magic touch?

9) Miami Marlins supposedly have a lot of young pitching in their farm system, but their ownership is so hideous, no one goes to their games now,. despite their beautiful new stadium- their team is terrible. Too bad there isn't a rule about forcing terrible owners to sell, then the Mets/Marlins could get out from what look like unpleasant futures.

8) Speaking of the Mets, Matt Harvey is hurt, their big catching prospect hit .163 this spring and they still have Ike Davis. Good luck fellas.

7) The longest eight miles in sports is the Grand Central Parkway, from Citi Field to the ballpark in the Bronx. Say what you want about the Bronx Bombers, but at least they try to win. The Wilpons are hideous owners.

6) Are the Angels the first team ever with a player who wears 0 (Colin Cowgill) and 00 (Brennan Boesch)? They've got a fortune invested in Trout and Pujols,. but neither of them pitches. They need to develop pitchers, they won't be able to afford free agent hurlers.

5) Theo Epstein runs the Cubs, a team that pays Edwin Jackson $13M a year- their next-highest paid player is Jason Hammel. Epstein also gave Carl Crawford his ridiculous $21M a year contract, when he was in Boston. Oy.

4) I need the White Sox to score a lot of runs; I've got Avasail Garcia and Jose Abreu on my fantasy team. They're going to score a lot of runs, right?

3) Will the Phillies have a fire sale? They're old, they're starting season with Hamels on the DL. If they're adrift at midseason, heads could roll.

2) How will the Tigers do without Jim Leyland? Without Prince Fielder? Without Doug Fister, Jose Iglesias, but with Ian Kinsler? Lot of pressure on Brad Ausmus, Detroit's new manager.

1) Pirates were the best story in baseball LY; can they make the playoffs again? They seem to be doing things the right way.

Enjoy the season everyone; should be a fun six months.......

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Kentucky vs. Michigan
The Wildcats take on Michigan in the Elite 8 tonight and come in with a 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 games versus Big Ten opponents. Kentucky is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2). Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, MARCH 30

Game 717-718: Connecticut vs. Michigan State (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 68.539; Michigan State 76.169
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 7 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 5 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-5 1/2); Under

Game 719-720: Kentucky vs. Michigan (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 74.663; Michigan 70.139
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 30

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CONNECTICUT (29 - 8) vs. MICHIGAN ST (29 - 8) - 3/30/2014, 2:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (27 - 10) vs. MICHIGAN (28 - 8) - 3/30/2014, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) in March games since 1997.
KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 30

Since 1987, there have been 11 regional finals without a top-3 seed from that region; underdogs went 8-3 vs spread in those games. UConn beat Michigan State 66-62 LY on an Army base in Germany that started the season; Napier had 25 that day, but its lot harder facing an Izzo team in March than November. Huskies will have home crowd edge in regional final; UConn is 14-1 outside AAC, beating shorthanded Iowa State last game. Michigan State won last six games after going 5-7 in last 12 regular season games- they also lost to UConn 70-67 in 2010 Maui Classic.

Over last 11+ years, underdogs are 30-16 vs spread in this round. 8-seed Kentucky is highest-seeded team to be favored in regional final; 7-seeds Florida (-1.5) in '12, Tulsa (-2.5) in 2000 both lost. Logic says its tough for young Kentucky squad to bounce back 41 hours after beating its rival Louisville in stirring comeback (trailed 18-5 early). Michigan is 25-48 on arc last two games; they've won 10 of last 11 games, holding on to beat Tennessee by hoop Friday, after leading by 11 at half. Wildcats lost by 4 to Michigan State, in its only game against a Big Dozen team this year.




NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

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Trend Report
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2:20 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. MICHIGAN STATE
No trends available
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

5:05 PM
KENTUCKY vs. MICHIGAN
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Michigan's last 8 games
Michigan is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

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East Regional final betting preview: Connecticut vs. Michigan State
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Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan State Spartans (-5.5, 139.5)

Each one of coach Tom Izzo’s senior classes has made at least one Final Four in his 19 seasons at Michigan State, which will get put to the test Sunday when the Spartans face No. 7 seed Connecticut in the East regional finals in New York. Fourth-seeded Michigan State knocked off top-seeded Virginia in a physical 61-59 victory Friday, breaking their three-year dry spell of getting past the Sweet 16. Michigan State advanced to the Elite Eight for the eighth time since 1999.

While the Spartans got only their third win in 13 tries at Madison Square Garden, the Huskies used the stage to avenge a loss to an Iowa State team that knocked them out of the Big Dance two years ago. "It felt like a home game. We just feel like Madison Square Garden is kind of our third home; Gampel (Pavilion) being the first and XL (Center) being the second,” leading scorer Shabazz Napier told the Hartford Courant. Connecticut doesn’t need any more help based on its recent success in the NCAA tournament, improving to 35-8 in its last 12 appearances after defeating the Cyclones 81-76.

TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: The Spartans opened as 6-point faves but that has been bet down to -5.5. The total opened 139.5.

INJURY REPORT: Connecticut - Pet Lenehan, G (Questionable, Undisclosed)

WHY BET CONNECTICUT (29-8 SU, 20-15 ATS, 13-21 O/U): Many have considered DeAndre Daniels an X-factor all season and he proved up to the task Friday, hitting 10 of his final 13 field-goal attempts en route to a 27-point, 10-rebound performance. "I called him an animal. When he gets in that mode, that's what he is; he's an animal and you've got to keep feeding him,” Napier told the Courant. Although the Huskies surrendered a career-high 34 points to Dustin Hogue, they limited All-Big 12 first-teamers DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim to a combined 23 points on 9-of-31 shooting from the field.

WHY BET MICHIGAN STATE (29-8 SU, 20-13-3 ATS, 19-17-3 O/U): The Spartans’ own X-factor, Branden Dawson, continued his dominant play in the NCAA tournament against the Cavaliers with 24 points and 10 rebounds – giving him 50 points and 19 boards over his last two games. “Dawson makes all the difference; he did (Friday). He was a matchup problem for us,” Virginia coach Tony Bennett told reporters. Gary Harris on Friday became the 45th player in school history to score at least 1,000 career points, but only the fourth to do so in his first two seasons.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 4-1 in Huskies last five non-conference games.
* Under is 5-2 in Spartans last seven NCAA Tournament games.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are on the Huskies.


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NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

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NCAA East Regional betting news and notes: Sparty must stop Shabazz
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(No. 4) Michigan State Spartans vs. (No. 7) Connecticut Huskies (+5.5, 139)

Does Connecticut have what it takes to keep Michigan States' big men from dominating the glass? It may not matter if the Huskies continue to shoot the ball as well as they have. Through the tournament’s first three games they are shooting at a 47 percent clip, a mind-blowing 46 percent from behind the 3-point arc (accounting for 35 percent of their points), and 85 percent from the charity stripe. To put those numbers in perspective, Creighton led the nation in 3-point percentage during the season converting at a 41.5 percent rate while Providence was the best free-throw shooting team in the tourney shooting 78.2 percent from the line.

Can the Spartans stop Shabazz Napier? The Connecticut guard has either scored or assisted on 35 points per game through the tourney’s first three games. For their part Michigan State’s opponent's backcourts have enjoyed some success this tourney with Virginia and Harvard’s starting guards scoring 41 and 39 respectively (although both teams did play with three guard sets). As for Napier and Michigan St., there is some precedent. At the start of last season, Napier scored 25, leading the Huskies to a 66-62 win in Kevin Ollie’s first game as head coach. “We are too fast, we are a transition team and when we get going, no one can keep up with us," said Napier after the game. "We just tried to do what they did, transition. We got some easy rebounds, they came off the boards and we let them go."

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

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Midwest Regional final betting preview: Kentucky vs. Michigan
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines (+2, 138.5)

Michigan is one win away from its second straight Final Four, while Kentucky is hoping to return for the third time in the last four seasons when the teams face off Sunday in Indianapolis. Both teams won thrillers on Friday, starting with the second-ranked Wolverines edging Tennessee 73-71 led by Jordan Morgan, who registered team highs of 15 points and seven rebounds and took a key charge in the final seconds. Michigan appeared as if it would face Louisville in a rematch of the 2013 national title game before the Cardinals were stunned by the eighth-seeded Wildcats, who received a go-ahead 3-pointer from Aaron Harrison in the final minute.

"They finally have surrendered and lost themselves in the team. It's just taken a long time," said Kentucky coach John Calipari, whose team was ranked No. 1 in the preseason before dropping out of the top 25 entirely late in the year. Michigan has been a stalwart near the top of the rankings all year, and the team has won 10 of 11 games heading into this matchup. "Guys are happy we're happy moving on and going to the next round and we're just excited to have the opportunity to go to the Final Four," commented Big Ten Player of the Year Nik Stauskas after contributing 14 points in Friday's victory.

LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened as a 2-point favorite with a total of 138.5.

INJURY REPORT: Kentucky, Willie Cauley-Stein F - Doubtful, Ankle. Michigan, Cole McConnell G, Questionable, Foot. Michigan, F Mitch McGary F Out, Back.

WHY BET KENTUCKY (27-10 SU, 18-15-2 ATS, 14-19-2 O/U): The Wildcats, who are aiming to become just the second No. 8 seed to reach the Final Four since 2001, boast a starting lineup that features five freshmen, headlined by Julius Randle, who has opened the NCAA tournament with three straight double-doubles. Harrison is shooting 9-of-15 from 3-point range over his last three games while fellow freshman Dakari Johnson hopes to build off his career high-tying 15 points against the Cardinals. One negative for Kentucky is the status of sophomore center Willie Cauley-Stein, the team's top rim protector, who left early in Friday's game with an ankle injury that prompted Calipari to say, "It's not a good ankle injury. Let me just put it that way."

WHY BET MICHIGAN (28-8 SU, 18-14-2 ATS, 20-13-2 O/U): The Wolverines flashed some impressive shooting numbers against the Volunteers - 55.1 percent from the field, 11-of-20 from the 3-point line and 8-of-10 from the free-throw stripe. Stauskas (17.3 points) has been Michigan's primary star this season and enters this contest shooting 17-of-36 from outside the arc over his last five games. Freshman swingman Zak Irvin continues to provide a nice spark off the bench, going 3-of-3 from 3-point range against Tennessee - the fourth time in five games that he has made multiple 3s off the bench.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Wolverines are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 9-2 in Wildcats last 11 Sunday games.
* Over is 6-2 in Wolverines last eight overall.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent of wagers are on the Wolverines.


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NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

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NCAA Midwest Regional betting news and notes: Wolverines dialed in from downtown
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(No. 2) Michigan Wolverines vs (No. 8) Kentucky Wildcats (-2, 140.5)

The Michigan Wolverines will look to make the Final Four for the second-straight season when they play the No. 8 seeded Kentucky Wildcats in Indianapolis. If they want to earn the win, they will likely need to execute better at inbounding the basketball in the final moments as five consecutive Wolverines turnovers in the final moments in their two point win over Tennessee cost Michigan bettors an ATS win and nearly a spot in the Elite Eight as they needed a charge taken by senior Jordan Morgan to escape a potential collapse after leading by 15 points in the second half.

The Wolverines, who are 2-point underdogs as the high seed in the matchup, will be reliant on their three-point shooting once again against Kentucky as they are dialed in from behind the arc. One of the top shooting teams in the nation, Michigan has been even more consistent from downtown in the tournament averaging 48.7 percent three-point shooting including over 50 percent in their past two wins against Texas and Tennessee. If that trend continues, the Wolverines should be tougher to knock off than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

Kentucky shocked the world in making the Elite Eight following a gauntlet of tough draws against undefeated Wichita State before beating Louisville on Friday after the Cardinals won 14 of their last 15 games, handing Rick Pitino his first Sweet 16 loss in his storied head coaching career.

The Wildcats will be the third straight Top 25 rebounding team to face the undersized Wolverines in the tournament and will be hoping that they can make more of an impact like the Longhorns did in the second round when they held a +13 rebounding margin over Michigan. Kentucky isn't far off from the Longhorns season rebounding average with both teams nearly grabbing 41 rebounds per contest. Holding a rebounding edge over the 308th ranked Wolverines hasn't led to a victory yet, but it appears the oddsmakers think that Sunday might be the matchup where Michigan's rebounding woes finally catch up to them.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

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Sunday's Elite Eight prop bets: Napier's high total
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Shabazz Napier has been lighting up March Madness for the Huskies. Through the first three games of the tournament, Napier has averaged 22.7 ppg on just under 35 minutes of floor time. Entering Sunday's action, Napier is getting the highest total point O/U of any player with 18.0.

Here are all your prop bets for Sunday's Elite Eight action (Odds courtesy of LVH Superbooks):

UCONN VS MICHIGAN ST

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 14.0 -110
UNDER 14.0 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110

TEAM TO SCORE 10 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
U CONN +120
MICHIGAN ST -140

TEAM TO SCORE 20 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
U CONN +145
MICHIGAN ST -165

TOTAL POINTS BY: SHABAZZ NAPIER (UCONN)
OVER 18.0 -110
UNDER 18.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: DEANDRE DANIELS (UCONN)
OVER 13.0 -110
UNDER 13.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: ADREIAN PAYNE (MICHIGAN ST)
OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: GARY HARRIS (MICHIGAN ST)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110


KENTUCKY VS MICHIGAN

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

TEAM TO SCORE 10 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
KENTUCKY -115
MICHIGAN -105

TEAM TO SCORE 20 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
KENTUCKY -120
MICHIGAN EVEN

TOTAL POINTS BY: JULIUS RANDLE (KENTUCKY)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: AARON HARRISON (KENTUCKY)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: NIK STAUSKAS (MICHIGAN)
OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: CARIS LEVERT (MICHIGAN)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Elite Eight
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies (+5.5, 139.5)

Spartans’ offensive boards vs. Huskies’ lack of glass cleaners

The Huskies nearly let Iowa State steal their spot in the Elite Eight Friday night. Connecticut allowed Cyclones guards DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim to grab eight offensive boards, producing numerous second chances. Even with ISU missing big man Georges Niang, the Cyclones still totaled 12 offensive rebounds. On the year, the Huskies have up 10.2 offensive boards per game – 297th in the country.

What makes the Spartans especially dangerous on the offensive glass is that their forwards step out on the perimeter, stretching the defense and making it even harder to boxout when these bigs crash the boards. That makes put-back dunks and soaring tip-ins a regular on the MSU highlight reels, thanks to the likes of Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson. The Spartans average just under 10 offensive rebounds per game and are 53rd in the country in total rebounding at 37.1.


Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines (+2, 139)

Wildcats’ quick closeouts vs. Wolverines' 3-point reliance

The Wildcats exploited a similar mismatch in their win over Louisville in the Sweet 16, dominating the Cardinals' diminutive backcourt with a towering trio of guards in Andrew and Aaron Harrison and James Young, who combined for 38 points and nine rebounds. The height of those three – all 6-foot-6 – kept a hand in the face of UL’s shooters, leading to a poor 4-for-15 shooting performance beyond the arc for the Cardinals. Russ Smith hit only one of his seven 3-point attempts and was just 1 for 12 in two games versus Kentucky this year.

Michigan relies heavily on the 3-pointer, sitting as the best team from distance remaining in the tournament. The Wolverines sunk 11 of 20 from 3-point range in the win over Tennessee in the Sweet 16, getting 45 percent of their total offense from the perimeter. Michigan’s backcourt is bigger than Louisville's, with Nik Stauskas and Glen Robinson III at 6-foot-6, but they’re not used to facing opponents with just as much height - and more - at guard. If the Wolverines don’t hit their outside looks, there’s no way they match UK’s physicality inside.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday, March 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Connecticut - 2:20 PM ET Michigan St -5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Michigan St - Over 139 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Kentucky - 5:05 PM ET Kentucky -2 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Michigan - Under 141 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Umpire Dale Scott's stats the last five years; check out the consistency of the percentage of strikes in his games behind the plate......

Year H/A +/-. $ O/U PT/g % strikes

2008 20-14 299 13-20 289.9 .621
2010 19-16 -230 19-15 297.9 .626
2011 17-18 -484 18-16 302.2 .622
2012 22-9 1368 15-16 291.0 .624
2013 16-17 -348 12-20 307.0 .621

*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Happy Opening Day, everyone.......

13) With due respect to Australians and ESPN, today is Opening Day, not last night, not last week. Opening Day is always exciting, a time everyone is optimistic, even the bad teams. Optimism might not last until Tax Day in a few places but as of this morning, there are 26 teams in first place.

12) Is Frank Sinatra really buried with a bottle of Jack Daniels?

11) Marquette/South Florida need to get together on this coaching search thing; USF got turned down by Dave Rice, who might get fired by UNLV in a year and pulled the plug on Steve Masiello after they found out his resume wasn't 100% truthful. Internet keeps listing guys Marquette wants to hire as its new coach, but since none of them have been hired, what gives?

Steve Wojciehowski is the latest name Marquette has floated as its new coach; if another Coach K assistant gets a bigtime job despite having zero head coaching experience, they're going to force me to do a research project, but we'll wait until he gets hired to do that.

10) Richard Sherman and DeSean Jackson once played on the same Little League team. Don't know how that team made out, but I'm guessing their dugout wasn't very quiet.

9) MLB Network was tremendous in March, exhibition games every day and all night, really a good station. Probably won't watch it much rest of the season though, since I have the Extra Innings package, which is even better.

8) Kansas freshman Andrew Wiggins is declaring for NBA Draft today; he scored four points in his last game, a loss to Stanford. He averaged 17.1 ppg and 5.9 rebounds, a solid season but rarely did you watch Kansas and see this player dominating a game. Maybe the NBA style will be more his thing.

For me, a kid like this going to college was a joke; he should've been allowed to go to the NBA right from high school, like baseball players can.

7) QB Stephen Rivers (Philip's brother) is transferring from LSU; word has it probably to Vanderbilt; he'll be eligible to play this fall, but no one knows how good he is, since he never played at LSU. Jordan Rodgers was Vandy's QB couple years ago, so they're used to having a QB with a famous brother. If only either one of them was as half as good as their brother.

6) John Gasaway of ESPN Insider reports that this Final Four's average seed is 4.5, making it the fourth wackiest since 1985. Wackier: 2011 (6.5), 2000 (5.5), 2006 (5.0). Anyone who had UConn in the Final Four is a genius or is somehow related to someone on their team.

UConn was down 3 with 0:45 to play in their first tournament game against St Joe's; wonder what their odds of making the Final Four were then?

5) Carl Crawford makes $21M a year but doesn't start on my fantasy team in a 16-team keeper league, and my team is mediocre at best in our league. If I cut him, I'm not sure how many teams he would start for, and the guy makes $21M a year!!!! Is his contract the worst one ever?

4) Wisconsin-Arizona game Saturday night was a great game; neither team led by more than three points, in the final 18:00 of the game. How many times does that happen?

3) So Ray Rice gets indicted for knocking his girlfriend out cold in a casino this winter; the day after he gets indicted, the happy couple gets married. If this world isn't going crazy, then maybe I am.

2) Greedy bastard update: prices of unleaded gas at Mobil gas stations:
-- corner of Fuller/Central: $3.79
-- gutless Sunoco station across street: $3.77-- they're always two cents a gallon cheaper than the Mobil station, like that matters.
-- corner of Wolf/Sand Creek, $3.85
-- Western Ave by UAlbany: $3.71
-- route 9, just south of Siena College, $3.73.

Why are the stations by my house more expensive????

1) Dodger bullpen gagged away a 1-0 lead (and my fantasy win for Ryu) Sunday night, lost 3-1 in San Diego. Padres' magic number is 162, and thats part of why Opening Day is so great. Padre fans can be dreamers today.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAA tournament Final Four odds: Opening Line Report

It’s been a crazy couple of weekends in the NCAA Tournament, so much so that only one No. 1 seed has survived to reach the Final Four next weekend – Florida. Wisconsin, a No. 2 seed, also advanced to the national semifinals, along with a No. 7 seed and a No. 8 seed in Connecticut and Kentucky, respectively.

So how does all that affect the opening lines? Let’s take a look:

No. 7 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 1 Florida Gators (-6/6.5, 124.5/125)

UConn stymied Michigan State – a team many bettors and oddsmakers liked to win it all – in Sunday’s East Regional final, with the Huskies nabbing a 60-54 victory catching 5 points to improve to 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the tourney, while taking down the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 seeds in order. But it’s hard to argue against Florida, which has now won 30 in a row SU, including a 62-52 victory over upstart No. 11 seed Dayton as a 10.5-point chalk in Saturday’s South Regional final. Jimmy Vaccaro at the South Point didn’t do much work in setting an opening line.

“It was very simple. I turned to Doug Hall – he’s my top oddsmaker – and said, ‘What do you think.’ And he said Florida -6.5. And my boss, Burt Osborne, said go with it,” Vaccaro said.

For Sportsbook.com’s Mike Perry, it was simply a matter of math.

“It was a pretty easy line to come up with really,” Perry said. “We opened Michigan state -5 vs UConn, and we’d considered Florida about a 1-point favorite vs. Michigan State. So that’s why we’re going with the Gators -6 against the Huskies.”

Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito added, “I think you look at Florida being the consensus No. 1 team entering the tournament, and as good as the Gators have looked, it’s hard not to make Florida a (solid) favorite. With Florida’s style, especially on the defensive side, 6 is a good number.”


No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers (+2, 139.5/140)

Kentucky not only survived a gauntlet that included back-to-back-to-back wins over No. 1 seed Wichita State, No. 4 seed Louisville (the defending national champion and instate rival) and No. 2 seed Michigan, but has been a spread-covering machine throughout postseason play. The Wildcats outlasted the Wolverines 75-72 Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite in the Midwest Regional final to move to 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS through the SEC and NCAA tournaments.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, made a 4-0 SU and ATS run through the West Regional, upending No. 1 seed Arizona 64-63 in overtime as a 3.5-point underdog Saturday.

“When you look at the Kentucky-Wisconsin game, you’ve got Kentucky having beaten Louisville and Michigan, and the Wildcats’ athleticism, the way they get up and down the floor, and their dominating presence, especially in the paint,” Esposito said. “Wisconsin is very good, but guests always remember the last thing they saw – Kentucky beating Louisville (on Friday) and beating Michigan (on Sunday). The Wildcats have to be the favorite in this one.”

Perry stuck with a proven formula, noting Kentucky – the preseason No. 1 team -- opened as a 2-point chalk against Michigan, despite the Wolverines being a No. 2 seed, just like the Badgers.

“We pretty much consider Wisconsin and Michigan the same, and we opened Kentucky -2 vs Michigan, so that’s why we opened the Wildcats -2 against the Badgers,” Perry said.

South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro was far more succinct: “Forget the seeding. We could’ve made this number last July.”

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Siena at Fresno State
The Bulldogs host the first game on the CBI Tournament final tonight against a Siena team that is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games. Siena is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Siena (+8). Here are all of today's games and this weekend's Final Four matchups.

MONDAY, MARCH 31

Game 751-752: Siena at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 58.071; Fresno State 63.701
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 8; 139
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+8); Under


SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Game 813-814: Connecticut vs. Florida (6:09 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.884; Florida 75.456
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (8:49 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.872; Wisconsin 73.409
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, March 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SIENA (18 - 17) at FRESNO ST (20 - 16) - 3/31/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SIENA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
SIENA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.
FRESNO ST is 28-49 ATS (-25.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 31

Fresno State lost back/back OT games in late January, was 8-13 at time; since then, they're 12-3, winning six of last seven at home, losing only to San Diego State. Bulldogs have only one senior starter, but are in top 10 in country at protecting ball- they're 10-6 outside Mountain West, with three OT wins. Siena won seven of last eight games, but November loss at Purdue was Saints' only game this year outside the eastern time zone; they're 7-7 outside the MAAC, are 11th-least experienced team in USA. This is first of best-of-3 series, with last two games in my hometown. Siena turns ball over 20.5% of time, #311 in country.




NCAAB

Monday, March 31

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10:00 PM
SIENA vs. FRESNO STATE
Siena is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Siena is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Fresno State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games

 

[CNOTES]

Monday, March 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Siena - 10:00 PM ET Siena +8 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Fresno St. - Under 138 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Clemson vs. SMU
The Tigers travel to Madison Square Garden for the NIT semifinals tonight and take on an SMU team that is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games. Clemson is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's games and this weekend's Final Four matchups.

TUESDAY, APRIL 1

Game 767-768: Clemson vs. SMU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 65.552; SMU 65.032
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1; 110
Vegas Line: SMU by 3 1/2; 119
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+3 1/2); Under

Game 769-770: Minnesota vs. Florida State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 63.822; Florida State 66.750
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 3; 143
Vegas Line: Florida State by 1; 137
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-1); Over

Game 771-772: Yale at VMI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 54.154; VMI 53.156
Dunkel Line: Yale by 1; 158
Vegas Line: VMI by 2; 163
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+2); Under

Game 773-774: Pacific at Murray State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 57.133; Murray State 57.463
Dunkel Line: Even; 157
Vegas Line: Murray State by 6; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+6); Over


SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Game 813-814: Connecticut vs. Florida (6:09 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.884; Florida 75.456
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (8:49 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.872; Wisconsin 73.409
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEMSON (23 - 12) vs. SMU (26 - 9) - 4/1/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (23 - 13) vs. FLORIDA ST (22 - 13) - 4/1/2014, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
FLORIDA ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.
FLORIDA ST is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-0 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

YALE (18 - 13) at VMI (22 - 12) - 4/1/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 106-78 ATS (+20.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
YALE is 106-78 ATS (+20.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
YALE is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
YALE is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PACIFIC (18 - 15) at MURRAY ST (21 - 11) - 4/1/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
MURRAY ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
MURRAY ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all home games this season.
MURRAY ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MURRAY ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, April 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (30 - 8) vs. FLORIDA (36 - 2) - 4/5/2014, 6:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 66-39 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENTUCKY (28 - 10) vs. WISCONSIN (30 - 7) - 4/5/2014, 8:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WISCONSIN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 5

Connecticut vs Florida, 6:10 ET
Connecticut: 19-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog
Florida: 1-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Kentucky vs Wisconsin, 8:50 ET
Kentucky: 17-8 UNDER as a favorite
Wisconsin: 23-8 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 1

Clemson won eight of last 11 games, but only wins away from home in that stretch were both vs Ga Tech; Tigers are #1 in country defending on arc, allowing 28.4% of 3's to be made. Clemson beat Temple by 14, its only game vs AAC opponent. SMU won at UConn Feb 23, looked like shoo-in for NCAAs, then lost three in row to fall off bubble- they lost by 3 to Virginia, its only game vs ACC opponent. Mustangs lost three of last four games away from home; they make 38.2% behind arc.

Yale won its last three games by total of nine points, allowing average of 67.7 ppg. VMI scored 82+ points in 11 of its last 12 wins; they scored 111-106-92 points in first three games of this tournament- they scored 66 ppg in their last four losses. Bulldogs won six of last eight true road tilts. Keydets are 10-6 out of conference; they've won five of their last six at home, 12 of last 15 games overall.

Pacific allowed 62.3 ppg in winning first three games in this tourney; it had lost five of last six games coming in. Tigers are in top 20 in country in experience, but this is their first trip east of Rockies this year, Murray State won 16 of last 20 games; they lost by 25 at St Mary's of WCC in November. Racers' last three losses are all by 3 points. Murray makes 37.6% from arc (#56); they've won their last thirteen home games.

Minnesota (-3.5) beat Florida State 71-61 at home Dec 3, going 28-38 on foul line with +11 (17-6) turnover ratio; Gophers shot just 29.7% inside arc, with nine shots blocked by Seminoles. FSU won seven of last nine games, with four of last five wins by 5 or less points- they've won four of last five games away from home. Minnesota lost eight of its last ten games away from home; they're 4-9 this season against teams in top 50. Florida State dominates inside; they're 4th-tallest team in America.




NCAAB

Tuesday, April 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 5 games
Southern Methodist is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games

7:00 PM
YALE vs. VMI
Yale is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
No trends available

9:00 PM
PACIFIC vs. MURRAY STATE
Pacific is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pacific's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Murray State's last 12 games at home
Murray State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

9:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. FLORIDA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida State's last 10 games
Florida State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Saturday, April 5

6:09 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games

8:49 PM
KENTUCKY vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB

Tuesday, April 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIT semifinals betting cheat sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Clemson Tigers vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs (-3, 119)

Clemson's K.J. McDaniels scored 16 points and DeMarcus Harrison poured in 14 of his 16 in the second half to spark the comeback victory over Belmont. McDaniels continues to deliver for the Tigers, leading them in scoring (17.2), rebounding (7.1), blocks (2.8) and steals (1.1). Clemson is shooting 74.2 percent from the free-throw line and has gone 34-for-42 from the charity stripe in this tournament.

Nic Moore, who tops the team in scoring (13.5), knocked down the game-winning 3-pointer with 6.5 seconds left to lift the Mustangs into the semifinals. Markus Kennedy had one of his best all-around games, recording 19 points, 10 rebounds, two assists and two steals versus California. SMU's stifling defense has played a major role in the program's revival, holding 23 of 35 opponents under 40 percent shooting from the floor.

TRENDS:

* Clemson is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* SMU is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games.
* Under is 8-2 in SMU's last 10 games overall.


Florida State Seminoles vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+1.5, 136)

Minnesota's Austin Hollins poured in a career-high 32 points to go with four assists and three steals while going 10-of-10 from the free-throw line in the win over Southern Miss. The Golden Gophers dished out a season-best 23 assists versus the Golden Eagles, with Andre Hollins providing a game-high seven. Free-throw shooting has played an integral role in Minnesota's recent run as it has gone 70-of-85 from the line in the tournament.

The top-seeded Seminoles aim to avenge a 71-61 defeat to Minnesota this season in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Aaron Thomas scored 14 of his team-high 21 points in the final frame and secured nine rebounds in the victory over Louisiana Tech. Okaro White, who was born in Brooklyn and will play in front of family and friends at Madison Square Garden, tallied 20 points and eight rebounds versus the Bulldogs.

TRENDS:

* Florida State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. the Big Ten.
* Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Under is 4-0 in Florida State's last four neutral site games.

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday, April 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Clemson - 7:00 PM ET Clemson +3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Southern Methodist - Over 119 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Yale - 7:00 PM ET VMI -1 500 *****

VMI - Under 163.5 500

Florida St. - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota +0 500 *****

Minnesota - Over 139.5 500

Pacific - 9:00 PM ET Murray St. -5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Murray St. - Under 150.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Fresno State at Siena
The Saints look to capture the CBI Tournament tonight on their home court where they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. Siena is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Siena (-1). Here are all of today's games and this weekend's Final Four matchups.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2

Game 527-528: Fresno State at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 60.489; Siena 63.676
Dunkel Line: Siena by 3; 128
Vegas Line: Siena by 1; 135
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-1); Under


SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Game 813-814: Connecticut vs. Florida (6:09 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.884; Florida 75.456
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (8:49 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.872; Wisconsin 73.409
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRESNO ST (20 - 17) at SIENA (19 - 17) - 4/2/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SIENA is 1-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
SIENA is 1-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, April 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (30 - 8) vs. FLORIDA (36 - 2) - 4/5/2014, 6:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 66-39 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (28 - 10) vs. WISCONSIN (30 - 7) - 4/5/2014, 8:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WISCONSIN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 5

Connecticut vs Florida, 6:10 ET
Connecticut: 19-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog
Florida: 1-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Kentucky vs Wisconsin, 8:50 ET
Kentucky: 17-8 UNDER as a favorite
Wisconsin: 23-8 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 2

Siena (+8) won 61-57 at Fresno State Monday, in first of best-of-3 CBI final, after trailing by six at halftime. Saints have now won eight of last nine games, but this game will be played in the on-campus ARC instead of the arena downtown where Siena has played home games since 1997. ARC seats around 4,000, is right on campus; game is rumored to be sold out. Siena won its last five home games, with last loss to triple overtime to Canisius. Fresno is 12-4 in its last 16 games, winning three of its last four true road games; they were -8 (16-8) in turnovers Monday, missed 11 of 16 3's, losing despite shooting 57% inside the arc




NCAAB

Wednesday, April 2

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. SIENA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games on the road
Fresno State is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Siena is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Siena is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games


Saturday, April 5

6:09 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games

8:49 PM
KENTUCKY vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

 

[CNOTES]

Final Four Betting Angles

March 31, 2014


It’s onward to Dallas for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2014 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to the big ‘D’ this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Enjoy.

NCAA FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds not off an ATS win are 9-1 ATS (Florida)

#2 Seeds are 6-13 ATS (Wisconsin)

The last #7 Seed to appear in a Final Four game was 1984 (Connecticut)

#8 Seeds are 1-2 SU and ATS (Kentucky)

Teams who are 4-0 ATS in this tourney are 10-15 ATS (Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin)

Teams with same season revenge are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (Florida)

SEC teams are 5-2 ATS versus foes off an underdog win (Florida, Kentucky)

Big 10 underdogs off three straight ATS wins are 1-6 ATS (Wisconsin)

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

#1 Seed favorites are 7-2 ATS

#2 Seeds are 0-3 SUATS since 2006

#5 or worse Seeds are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS

Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-1 ATS

Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 1-5 ATS

Underdogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS

Underdogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 0-4 ATS

Big 10 teams are 1-7 SUATS

SEC teams are 3-0 SUATS since 2006

COACH ME UP

Connecticut’s Kevin Ollie is:
4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in NCAA tournament
3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs Big 10
1-0 and 0-1 ATS vs SEC
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Calipari
1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ryan

Florida’s Billy Donovan is:
34-11 SU and 27-17-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs AAC
9-10 SU and 8-10-1 ATS vs Big 10
218-114 SU and 169-156-7 ATS vs SEC
5-9 SU and 6-7-1 ATS vs Calipari
0-1 SU and 1-0 ATS vs Ollie
1-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS vs Ryan

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
42-13 SU and 31-23-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS vs AAC
10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS vs Big 10
95-36 SU and 64-65-2 ATS vs SEC
9-5 SU and 7-6-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ollie
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ryan

Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
20-12 SU and 19-12-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs AAC
9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS vs SEC
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Calipari
1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ollie

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played over the last 25 years.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have.

I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday, April 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Fresno St. - 7:00 PM ET Siena -1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Siena - Under 132 500 *****