Monday's Top Action
March 30, 2015
HOUSTON ROCKETS (50-23) at TORONTO RAPTORS (43-30)
Tip-off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Toronto -1.5, Total: 208
The Houston Rockets will attempt to extend their winning streak to five games when they head north and take on the Toronto Raptors this Monday night.
The Rockets have continued to be one of the elite teams out west as they have won seven of their past eight contests (6-2 ATS), winning by an average of 7.9 PPG over that period. Three of those victories came on the road as they put up 100+ points in all but two of the outings. They had a tough draw on Sunday when they traveled to Washington as 2-point favorites and came away with a 99-91 win. Six different players hit double-digits in points as they overcame a 19 turnover game with the defense holding the Wizards to 29-of-75 shooting (39% FG).
The Raptors certainly haven’t been the same since the All-Star break, going 7-13 both SU and ATS, but have been a little better of late with victories in five of their past nine games. The offense has made better than 46% of their shots in each of the past four contests as they put up 101.8 PPG. An easy opponent came into town on Friday when they hosted the Lakers as 8.5-point favorites and were victorious by a score of 94-83. They held L.A. to a putrid 34.5% shooting and the only reason it was as close as it was is because Toronto allowed the Lakers to grab 16 offensive rebounds. Houston has managed a solid 23-13 SU (20-15-1 ATS) when playing as the road team and will be facing a Raptors group which is 25-13 SU (16-22 ATS) at Air Canada Centre.
This is the second time that these teams have matched up on the year and it was all the Rockets in the first game as they dominated in a 98-76 win as 2-point home favorites. Neither team shot better than 42% from the floor as they each had 23 turnovers, but Toronto was worse with a mere 24-of-77 shots going in (33% FG). Trends show that Toronto has gone 8-18 ATS (31%) after a win by 10 points or more this year as Houston has managed a poor 13-24 ATS record (35%) in road games after having won five or six of its past seven games in the past two years. The Rockets will be quite thin with all their injuries as C Dwight Howard (Rest), PF Donatas Motiejunas (Back), PG Patrick Beverley (Wrist), PF Terrence Jones (Ribs) and SF Kostas Papanikolaou (Ankle) are all expected to be out while PG Kyle Lowry (Back) is listed as doubtful for the Raptors.
Houston has been a great offensive team for the past few years and is once again as it is putting up 103.4 PPG (6th in league) on 44.1% shooting (10th-worst in league). On the defensive side of things, the Rockets are letting opponents get 100.1 PPG (16th in league) with 44.1% of shots going in (10th in league). SG James Harden (27.2 PPG, 7.0 APG, 5.8 RPG, 1.9 SPG) has made just 40.4% of his shots in the past five contests but is still averaging 28.4 PPG as he made 10 free throws per game. He had a sub-par performance, by his standards, the last time he met Toronto with 20 points on 5-of-12 shooting as he added seven assists, five rebounds and two steals.
SF Trevor Ariza (12.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.9 SPG) has been doing better from the field recently with 47% of his shots dropping in the month of March but he had just nine points and five rebounds against the Raptors in February. SG Corey Brewer (11.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG) has been vital in this team’s success and has hit double-digit points in four of the past five games despite shooting a mere 39% from the field. He had one of his best performances of the year in the win over Toronto with 26 points, 10 rebounds and five steals.
The Raptors are the best offensive group in the Eastern Conference as they are netting 104.2 PPG (3rd in league) and making 45.4% of their shots (13th in league). They haven’t been able to do much on defense, though, with their opposition scoring 101.2 PPG (9th-worst in league) behind 46.1% shooting (4th-worst in league). SG DeMar DeRozan (19.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG) has been playing a ton of minutes in March (38.2 MPG) but is coming off a 1-for-10 shooting performance with six points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in the win over the Lakers. He was also poor in the loss against Houston earlier in the season with 10 points (4-for-14 FG), three steals and a block.
SG Louis Williams (15.1 PPG, 1.1 SPG) has been one of the most explosive offensive bench players this year and has scored 18.3 PPG over the past three outings. He did not play in the one game facing the Rockets this year and had six points with eight assists in a single contest off the bench last season. C Jonas Valanciunas (12.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.2 BPG) had one of his better recent offensive showings against L.A. with 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting as he added seven rebounds and a block. He had 11 points, seven rebounds and three steals when his team was dismantled in the last matchup with Houston.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS (36-37) at ATLANTA HAWKS (55-18)
Tip-off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Atlanta -8.5, Total: 194
The Bucks continue to fight for playoff positioning when they head to Atlanta Monday and face a Hawks team that has already clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks hosted the Warriors on Saturday and lost 108-95 as 5-point home underdogs. Milwaukee had won two straight games coming into that one and will now look to turn things around quickly against Atlanta. The team is allowing 107.5 PPG over the past two contests and must find a way to play better defense moving forward.
The Hawks, meanwhile, lost their most recent game 115-110 as 6.5-point underdogs in Charlotte. They had won-and-covered in two straight games before that loss and the difference was that they held their opponents to just 84.5 PPG in the victories. The Hawks will need to be better defensively against Milwaukee and they’ll also need to get back to playing their efficient brand of offense.
These teams have met three times this season and Atlanta is 2-1 SU and 1-1-1 ATS in those games. The home team has not won a single game SU in this series. Over the past three seasons, however, the Hawks are 9-1 SU and 6-3 ATS against the Bucks. They are 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS when playing as the host in that time.
Milwaukee is 15-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season and 19-10 ATS as a road underdog as well. Atlanta, however, is 24-11 ATS after two straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds this season. SF Jared Dudley (Back) is doubtful for the Bucks, who are already without SF Jabari Parker (Knee) and SF Damien Inglis (Foot) for the season. PG Jeff Teague (Ankle) is doubtful for the Hawks, who are without PF Mike Scott (Toe) indefinitely.
The Bucks are still playing to determine where they’ll be seeded in the Eastern Conference playoffs and they need PG Michael Carter-Williams (14.5 PPG, 6.8 APG, 5.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG) to play much better. He had just eight points and three assists in 22 minutes against Golden State last game, picking up three personal fouls and also turning the ball over three times in the process. He has not been able to avoid foul trouble recently and his lack of ball security is alarming. Carter-Williams needs to slow down and start playing much more efficiently moving forward.
PF Ersan Ilyasova (11.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG) had a bad game against the Warriors, scoring just eight points (1-for-10 FG, 0-for-5 3PT) in 23 minutes of action. He had been on a tear for the team, scoring 15+ points in five of the six games before losing to Golden State. He should be able to play a little better in this one, as it’s unlikely that a good outside shooter (37% 3PT) will be that inaccurate two games in a row.
SG Khris Middleton (13.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG) is averaging 14.0 PPG in three games against the Hawks this season. Middleton will really need to step it up in this one if Ilyasova were to somehow not find his touch. With Dudley out, Middleton is one of the only reliable shooters on the team (42% 3PT).
SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (12.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.1 BPG. 1.0 SPG) has really struggled against the Hawks this season, averaging just 10.3 PPG on 36.7% shooting from the field in three meetings. He’ll need to find a way to be more effective in this one.
C Zaza Pachulia (8.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 SPG) comes into this meeting with his former team on a tear. He’s now scored in double figures in 10 straight games and will need to do the same against Al Horford Monday.
The Hawks have been one of the best teams in basketball all season long, but they have not looked that way in recent weeks. The team needs to get back on track heading into the playoffs or it will be very prone to an early round upset.
PG Dennis Schroder (9.9 PPG, 4.2 APG) has been playing outstanding over the past five games for the Hawks. He’s averaging 15.8 PPG, 6.8 APG and 3.2 RPG in 26.8 MPG in those contests. Schroder’s play is crucial for this Hawks team because PG Jeff Teague (16.3 PPG, 7.0 APG) is out with an injured ankle.
C Al Horford (15.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.3 BPG) was given the game off against the Hornets on Saturday and will now be fresh for this meeting with his old teammate, Zaza Pachulia. Horford is averaging 16.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG against the Bucks this season and will need to play the same brand of two-way basketball on Monday.
PF Paul Millsap (17.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG) is coming off of a day off as well and had been scorching hot before resting. He was averaging 21.8 PPG in the four games before not playing against the Hornets. The Bucks don’t defend power forwards that well and Millsap should be able to take advantage of that.
SG Kyle Korver (12.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.5 APG) also got the game off against Charlotte Saturday. Korver has struggled against Milwaukee this season, averaging just 7.0 PPG on 25% shooting in three meetings with the team. He’ll need to knock down his outside shots in this one or the Hawks might not have the spacing they need to win.
PHOENIX SUNS (38-36) at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (47-25)
Tip-off: Monday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Portland -8.5, Total: 199.5
The Blazers look to win their fourth straight game when they host the struggling Suns Monday.
The Suns hosted the Thunder on Sunday and lost 109-97 as 2.5-point favorites. Phoenix has lost three straight games both SU and ATS and has failed to score 100 or more points in four straight contests. This is a team that wins games because of its offense and it will need to start putting up points or it will miss the playoffs once again.
The Blazers, on the other hand, have now won three straight games after beating the Nuggets 120-114 as 9-point home favorites. These teams have met three times this season and the Blazers are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in those contests. They blew out the Suns 108-87 in the only home game they’ve played against the team this season and are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS when hosting Phoenix over the past three seasons.
The Suns are an impressive 48-25 ATS in road games over the past two seasons, and are also 29-16 ATS in road games after playing a game as a favorite in that time. The Blazers are 14-1 ATS after three straight wins by six points or less since 1996. SG Brandon Knight (Ankle) and SG Marcus Thornton (Toe) are questionable for Phoenix and SG Wesley Matthews (Achilles) is out for the season for Portland.
The Suns have struggled recently and they’ll need to string together a big winning streak or they will miss the playoffs this season. PG Eric Bledsoe (17.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG) has done everything he can to will his team to victories, averaging 20.2 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.6 RPG and 1.4 SPG over the past five contests. Bledsoe will need to have a good game against the Blazers on Monday. He struggled with just 13 points and seven rebounds on 5-for-20 shooting from the floor against Portland last Friday and can’t afford to do it again in this one.
PF Markieff Morris (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.3 SPG) and SF Marcus Morris (10.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) combined to rack up 34 points and 21 rebounds in that game against Portland. The two of them were able to find their shots offensively, but neither had an answer for LaMarcus Aldridge on the defensive end. One of them will need to step it up and defend at a high level on Monday.
SG Brandon Knight (17.0 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG) returned from his eight game absence to face Oklahoma City on Sunday. He was awful in the game though, finishing with just three points (1-for-10 FG, 0-for-6 3PT) and four assists in 22 minutes. He is questionable in this game, but he’ll really need to find his stroke if he plays. He is not a great defender, so his presence can hurt the team when he is not knocking down shots.
The Blazers have gotten themselves on track recently, winning three straight games after a five game losing streak. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (23.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.0 BPG) was a monster against the Nuggets on Saturday, pouring in 32 points and also grabbing 11 boards in 35 minutes of action. The last time he faced the Suns, he could not miss in crunch time and was ultimately the reason Portland came away with a road victory. He’ll need to continue to use his size to his advantage against a small Suns frontcourt.
PG Damian Lillard (21.1 PPG, 6.3 APG, 4.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG) struggled against the Suns last game, finishing with just 11 points (4-for-15 FG) and four assists in what was a very off game for the All-Star. Lillard is just 8-for-26 over the past two games and needs to find his stroke soon because the playoffs are quickly approaching.
SF Nicolas Batum (9.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.1 SPG) had just five points in 32 minutes the last time he faced Phoenix. He did have nine rebounds and five assists in that game though, and followed it up with 15 points and seven assists in a win over Denver the following night. Batum is averaging 17.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 5.7 APG in three games against the Suns this season and will need to be more effective as a scorer than he was in the most recent meeting.
C Robin Lopez (9.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.5 BPG) was big in the victory over Phoenix Friday, finishing with 12 points, 10 boards and a block in 29 minutes. He’ll need to continue to to protect the rim moving forward.
