Harden-Less Rockets face Hawks
March 3, 2015
HOUSTON ROCKETS (41-18) at ATLANTA HAWKS (47-12)
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Atlanta -9, Total 200
Two of the elite teams in the NBA, the Houston Rockets and Atlanta Hawks, meet on Tuesday night in what should be a tremendous match-up.
Houston has been dealing with injuries up and down its rotation all season long but has seen SG ames Harden consistently play MVP-caliber basketball as the team comes into this contest with five consecutive SU wins (4-1 ATS). They’ve won by an average of 8.8 PPG over the current winning streak and defeated three eventual playoff teams in the process. The biggest victory came on Sunday against the Cavs, when they took the game into overtime and grabbed a 105-103 win as one-point underdogs. The offense hit 34-of-74 shots (46% FG) in the win as Cleveland made a putrid 11-of-21 free-throw attempts. Harden, however, is suspended for this game.
Atlanta has been one of the most dominant teams all year long and continues to put together tremendous all-around efforts with victories in each of the last four outings. They were just 2-2 ATS in that time and after grabbing double-digit wins against both Milwaukee and Dallas, they had close calls against some less talented clubs in Orlando and Miami. They really cut it close on Saturday against the Heat when they were giving 2.5 points and ended with a 93-91 win. It was a late push by Miami that made it close as they put up 38 points in the final quarter, but the Hawks were able to keep the lead behind 23 forced turnovers.
Houston has managed to play well on the road with a record of 17-10 SU (13-14 ATS) in away games as they face an Atlanta group which is a solid 27-4 SU (19-12 ATS) at home. It was all the Hawks in the first matchup between these teams this year when they took down the Rockets by a score of 104-97 behind 51.4% shooting as 5-point underdogs on the road in late December.
It was their first win in Houston since 2010, but they typically do well when playing at home and are 11-5 SU (7-7-2 ATS) against this opponent in front of their fans since 1996. Trends show us that Atlanta is 5-1 ATS this year after playing five consecutive games as the favorite while Houston is 16-3 ATS (84%) when coming off a road win on the season.
The injuries have been frequent for the Rockets this year as they continue to play without C Dwight Howard (Knee) and have SF Kostas Papanikolaou (Ankle) day-to-day. On the other side, the Hawks had PG Jeff Teague (Hamstring), C Al Horford (Personal), SF DeMare Carroll (Achilles) and C Pero Antic (Knee) out on Saturday but they are all expected to play in this one.
The Houston offense continues to be impressive with 103.3 PPG (6th in league) on the season as it makes just 43.8% of its shots (9th-worst in league). The defense has also performed well in the high-powered Western Conference and has given up 99.7 PPG on 44% shooting (9th in league).
SG James Harden (27.1 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.8 RPG, 1.9 SPG) is coming off yet another tremendous effort (33 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks) in the win over Cleveland on Saturday but also had an altercation with LeBron James that will cause him to miss this contest due to suspension. He was just 5-of-16 against the Hawks in the first meeting this year but ended with a solid line (18 points, 14 assists, 6 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal) in the loss.
SF Trevor Ariza (12.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.9 SPG) has made a meager 38% of his field goal attempts this year and had just four points against the Cavs while contributing in other ways (7 rebounds, 4 steals, 2 blocks). He took nine three-point shots in the last matchup with Atlanta, making just three on his way to a 13-point game in which he added two steals and a block.
PF Terrence Jones (11.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) has been huge of late with averages of 17.0 PPG (56% FG), 10.2 RPG and 2.2 BPG over his last five outings. He didn’t face this opponent in the game back in December but has averaged 10.0 PPG (45% FG) and 7.0 RPG in two career starts against them.
Atlanta has picked up its offensive game this year and are scoring the second most points in the East (102.6 PPG, 7th in league) behind 46.6% shooting (3rd in league). On the opposite end of the court, the defense has been extremely impressive as well and are giving up a mere 96.4 PPG (2nd in league) as opponents make 43.4% of their shots (4th in league).
PG Jeff Teague (16.7 PPG, 7.3 APG, 1.7 SPG) has not been playing well in recent games with 12.3 PPG on a mere 39% shooting over his past four performances. He also missed the past contest against this squad and was horrible when facing them last year with 5.5 PPG (12% FG), 5.0 APG and 1.5 SPG.
PF Paul Millsap (17.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.7 SPG) has put up 20+ points in three of his past four games and has hit 6-of-11 threes over the last two contests. He was solid all-around (14 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 2 steals) when his club defeated the Rockets already this season.
C Al Horford (15.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.3 BPG) averaged a double-double (14.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG) over 11 February games and should be rearing to go after getting a day of rest on Saturday. He was solid in the game against Houston back in December with 14 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, three blocks and a steal.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS (34-26) at CHICAGO BULLS (37-23)
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Washington -1, Total 186
The Wizards will be going for their second straight victory when they head to Chicago on Tuesday and face a Bulls team that is depleted by injuries.
The Wizards hosted the Pistons on Saturday and won 99-95 as 5-point favorites. Washington had lost six straight games heading into that one and the team is now 0-5-1 ATS in its past six games. The Wizards are really struggling offensively, scoring less than 100 points in seven of their past eight contests. The Bulls, meanwhile, lost 96-86 as 2-point home underdogs against the Clippers on Sunday.
Chicago is also struggling to put up points, averaging just 88.8 PPG over its past four games. The Bulls are, however, allowing just 88.5 PPG in those contests. The team has not found its defensive identity all year but perhaps their recent injuries will force the players to clamp down and win some ugly games.
Chicago won-and-covered in Washington in the first meeting between these teams on the season, but the Wizards have won-and-covered in two straight against the Bulls since then. Washington has won its past five games at United Center SU and the team has also covered in seven straight games in Chicago as well. The Wizards are, however, 2-8 ATS after a win by six points or less this season. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 9-4 ATS when revenging a loss where an opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous meeting this season.
PF Kris Humphries (Groin) is questionable for the Wizards and SG Jimmy Butler (Elbow), PG Derrick Rose (Knee) and PF Taj Gibson (Ankle) are all out indefinitely for the Bulls.
The Wizards finally got back into the win column with a victory over the Pistons on Saturday and PG John Wall (17.2 PPG, 10.1 APG, 4.3 RPG, 1.8 SPG) came up big in that one. He played 38 minutes and finished with 22 points (8-for-14 FG), six assists and two steals. Wall should be able to tear up Chicago, as the team is now weak at the point guard position with PG Derrick Rose (18.4 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.1 RPG) rehabbing his knee. Wall is averaging 18.3 PPG and 10.0 APG in three meetings with the Bulls this season and he’ll need to attack the basket for some easy buckets right from the opening tip.
SF Paul Pierce (12.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG) will also be a big weapon for the Wizards in this game. Pierce had 14 points, five rebounds and five assists in his return from a knee injury on Saturday. He is averaging 13.7 PPG and 5.0 RPG against Chicago this season and should be in for a much bigger performance with the Bulls being without SG Jimmy Butler (20.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.7 SPG). Butler is one of the better on-ball defenders in the NBA and usually checks the opposing team’s small forward. Pierce should be able to post up whomever else Chicago throws at him and he’s always a threat to knock down his outside shots as well (38% 3PT).
C Marcin Gortat (11.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.3 BPG) had 16 points, 17 rebounds, three steals and a block against the Pistons last game. He’s been a monster on the glass, grabbing 10+ rebounds in each of his past five games. Gortat is averaging 15.3 PPG, 11.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG against the Bulls this season and will need to keep up that solid play on offense against a talented Bulls frontcourt.
SG Bradley Beal (14.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.3 SPG) had eight points, six rebounds, five assists and three steals in his return from a stress reaction in his leg on Saturday. Beal is averaging 16.3 PPG in three meetings with the Bulls this season and he will need to knock down his outside shots as he is the Wizards’ best shooter from deep (43% 3PT).
The Bulls are going to need some guys to really step their games up with PG Derrick Rose and SG Jimmy Butler out for the next few weeks.
PG Aaron Brooks (10.6 PPG, 2.8 APG) is the one who will be taking over Rose’s duty as the primary ball-handler. Brooks had 14 points and three assists in 31 minutes in the loss to Los Angeles. He is not as good of a passer as Rose is, but he can put up points in a hurry. Brooks is a lethal outside shooter (42% 3PT) and will use that to continue his success against the Wizards this season (12.3 PPG, 3.7 APG in 22.0 MPG).
SF Tony Snell (5.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG) will likely take a big portion of Butler’s minutes on the wing. Snell had 13 points (3-for-7 FG, 3-for-5 3PT, 4-for-4 FT) and seven boards in 33 minutes against the Clippers. He is a good perimeter defender and can really knock down shots from the outside (40% 3PT). He’ll look to put up his fifth straight game with 10+ points when he faces Washington Tuesday.
PF Nikola Mirotic (7.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) is one more player who will be asked to bring his game to another level with Butler out. Mirotic prefers to play the power forward position, but he’ll see some time at both power forward and small forward with the injuries to Butler and PF Taj Gibson (10.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG). Mirotic had 29 points and nine rebounds in 31 minutes against the Clippers last game. He is a very good shooter (34% 3PT) for a guy that is 6-foot-10 and he will need to use his size to make Paul Pierce uncomfortable when the Wizards’ veteran is guarding him.
C Joakim Noah (7.8 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.3 BPG) is one of the best passing big men in basketball and he will run the offense a lot with Rose out. Noah has had 6+ assists in each of his past three games and that is a trend that is likely to continue until Rose is healthy.
PF Pau Gasol (18.2 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, 2.1 BPG) had just four points (2-for-13 FG) in his return from an illness against Los Angeles last game. He did, however, have 15 boards and four assists and should shoot better as he gets healthier. This will be a physical game inside, so the Bulls need Gasol to play tough on both ends of the court.
