Cnotes National Football Leagues Trends-News- Picks !!

[CNOTES]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 9/15/15 )


14 - 11 GOING INTO WEEK # 2


*****.......................................... 3 - 3
double play....................................9 - 5
triple play......................................1 - 3
blow out........................................1 - 0
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 6 - 6 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )


Going into Thursday Night Football

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report Week 2: Packers faves over Seahawks

Last January, the Packers let a 19-7 fourth-quarter lead evaporate, ultimately losing 28-22 in overtime but cashing as an 8.5-point road underdog to the Seahawks.


Highlighting the Week 2 schedule is a battle of NFC heavyweights on Sunday night, in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game. Two-time defending NFC champ Seattle travels to the currently unfrozen tundra to face a Green Bay team surely looking for some payback.


Last January, the Packers let a 19-7 fourth-quarter lead evaporate, ultimately losing 28-22 in overtime but cashing as an 8.5-point road underdog to the Seahawks. Seattle then went on to a heart-wrenching 28-24 Super Bowl loss as a 1-point pup to New England.


In their respective season openers, the Seahawks rallied with 18 fourth-quarter points to force overtime, but lost 34-31 at St. Louis as 3.5-point favorites, while the Packers bested host Chicago 31-23 as 6-point chalk.


John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, tabbed Green Bay a 3.5-point fave over Seattle.


“This budding rivalry just keeps getting better,” Lester told Covers. “Seattle’s offensive line issues were apparent in Week 1, but Green Bay doesn’t quite have the firepower St. Louis does along the defensive line. Again, two teams that rate about the same, but we know Lambeau Field will be starving for a victory against this Seahawks squad.


Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, set the Pack at -3.


“They also met to open the season last year, and Seattle won at home convincingly (36-16),” Lester said. “The Seahawks rarely lose at home, but the road hasn't been quite as friendly. Green Bay, Wisconsin, is about as strong a home field as you'll find in the NFL.”




Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4/OTB)


Dallas could quickly learn what it lost by not re-signing running back DeMarco Murray, who will line up in Philadelphia’s backfield in an NFC East clash.


Some books have this game at Philadelphia -4, with news that Dallas WR Dez Bryant is out 4-6 weeks with a broken foot, while most places have this game off the board as of Monday morning. Books estimate his value between one and 1.5 points to the Cowboys' pointspreads.


The Cowboys opened their season by piling up a boatload of yards (436) and a boatload of costly turnovers (three), but somehow rallied in the final minute to upend the New York Giants 27-26. The Boys failed to cash, going off as a 7-point chalk.


The Eagles, meanwhile, still haven’t kicked off their season, playing in a Monday night game at Atlanta.


Avello expected to set the number around 2.5 – before news of Bryant’s injury got out.


“It's only Week 2 and things may change, but these two appear to be the ones that will be competing for the division crown,” Avello said. “Home-field advantage hasn't meant much the last two years in this rivalry, as each team has lost at home and won on the road.”


Lester was figuring on a field-goal pointspread, but spoke too soon when it came to Bryant’s broken foot.


“If there are no major injuries in either teams’ Week 1 games, we will look to make Philadelphia around 3-point chalk,” Lester said before the conclusion of Sunday night’s game. “It’s a case of two of the most public teams we have, and they look pretty even on paper, so we’ll account for the Eagles’ home-field edge. We’ll have to set the total extremely high to attract under bettors.”




New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+1.5)


The defending Super Bowl champion Pats come in with extra rest after dispatching the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-21, though they failed to cash as 7.5-point closing chalk in the Thursday night season opener. Tom Brady, who a week earlier had his four-game suspension rescinded, lit up the Pittsburgh defense, completing 25 of 32 passes for 288 yards and four touchdowns – three to tight end Rob Gronkowski.


Buffalo, in its first game under new coach Rex Ryan, was surprisingly dominant in a 27-14 victory over Indianapolis as a 1-point home underdog. The Bills led 24-0 midway through the third quarter and didn’t let the Colts score until the final minute of that quarter.


“Another semi-rivalry that’s been dominated by the favorite, but one where the books can be tossed out,” Lester said. “Of course, the Bills will be a trendy pick this season, as we took a ton of action on them in Week 1. And of course, they delivered. The Rex Ryan hype machine is well-oiled, so again, I expect the squares to be on the Pats and the sharps to be on the home dog. We’ve already adjusted down to +1.”


Said Avello, “The Bills and Rex Ryan got the start they were looking for and now can prove they are contenders for at least the AFC East. They've only beat the Pats a couple of times over the past 10 years, but they should be well prepared for this one.”




Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)


The Broncos, under new coach Gary Kubiak, had an extremely pedestrian offensive showing in their opener against Baltimore, but their defense was stout. Denver got a pick-6 for its only touchdown and another interception to end a Ravens threat in the waning seconds, notching a 19-13 home win laying 4.5 points.


The Chiefs scored all of their points in the first half, then held off Houston for a 27-20 win as a 1-point road fave. Kansas City has dropped six in a row SU (2-4 ATS) in its AFC West rivalry with Denver.


“It’s been a one-sided rivalry recently, but Kansas City always keeps things competitive,” Lester said. “We expect the public players to back the Broncos, but wiseguy money showed up early on the home dog, moving the spread to -3 shortly after we opened. The over will certainly be a popular play, but I’d take a long look at playing the under.”


Avello opened the Chiefs at -2.5.


“Against the Ravens, Manning and company played like it was the end of the season, and his arm appeared to be tired,” he said. “The Chiefs have dropped six straight to the Broncos and have only been the favorite once since Manning arrived in Denver.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Thursday, September 17


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DENVER (1 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) - 9/17/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Sunday, September 20


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HOUSTON (0 - 1) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-49 ATS (-26.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DETROIT (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 85-49 ATS (+31.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 167-128 ATS (+26.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ARIZONA (1 - 0) at CHICAGO (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TENNESSEE (1 - 0) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 0-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SAN DIEGO (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ST LOUIS (1 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 103-142 ATS (-53.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ATLANTA (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BALTIMORE (0 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI (1 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DALLAS (1 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SEATTLE (0 - 1) at GREEN BAY (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, September 21


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY JETS (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/21/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 2


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, September 17


8:25 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver




Sunday, September 20


1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing NY Giants
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta


1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home


1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. CHICAGO
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games


1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home


1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CAROLINA
Houston is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games


1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games


1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
San Diego is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Cincinnati is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games


1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit


1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games at home
Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home


1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CLEVELAND
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Tennessee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee


4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. JACKSONVILLE
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games


4:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore


4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games on the road
Dallas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Philadelphia is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas


8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. GREEN BAY
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games at home


8:30 PM
NY JETS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Jets are 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
Indianapolis is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets




Monday, September 21

8:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-4-1 SU in their last 6 games ,at home
NY Giants are 3-9-1 SU in their last 13 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Line Watch: Window closing on Chiefs' Thursday night spread


If you like KC, it might be a good idea to jump now before oddsmakers pile on another half-point.


Spread to bet now


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)


It wasn’t exactly Willie Mays falling down in the outfield during his final season, but Bronco bettors have to be a little concerned about what they saw out of Peyton Manning in the opener – 24 for 40, no TDs, 1 INT. At home.


Eerily similar to the numbers PM put up in Denver’s playoff loss to the Colts last season. And now Manning is getting only a few days of rest before a road game against the pumped-up Chiefs.


Does KC actually have a QB advantage in this one? This one opened at KC -2.5 and is now at 3. If you like K.C., it might be a good idea to jump now before oddsmakers pile on another half-point.




Spread to wait on


New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7)


Repeat after me: Week 1 is only one week.


The Jets looked dominant against a crummy Browns team, and the Colts drew the tough assignment of playing in Buffalo last Sunday. This same game played just about at any point last season would carry a line in the vicinity of 13-14 points. Two factors are keeping this spread as tight as it is – the way each team played last week, and NY money on the Jets.


Suggestion here is to hang tight and wait to see if heavier money either way moves the line either way just before kickoff.




Total to watch


Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (40.5)


Bill O’Brien has the unenviable task of trying to win NFL games without a top-level quarterback, and even with a good defense that’s like spending all week pushing a boulder up a hill only to see it come crashing down in 15 minutes on Sunday afternoon.


Now O’Brien says he won’t even reveal which former Patriot backup (Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallet) will start in Carolina.


Until Houston can get its offense untracked, Texan bettors can expect to see low totals all season – even against a weak schedule and in a soft AFC South.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 1: Eagles grounded by Parkey


After it was over, Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly expressed his continued confidence in kicker Cody Parkey.


Following a soul-crushing 26-24 loss in Atlanta, the belief here is that misplaced confidence is undoubtedly his greatest mistake on a night where he was often second-guessed.


Kelly, notoriously stubborn, has already made it quite clear during his tenure as Eagles coach that they’re going to win or lose his way. They’re going to adhere to his methods, some rather unorthodox, and they’re going to ride with his decisions.


If he’s going to stick with his struggling kicker, it’s probably going to come back to bite Philly again at some point, likely sooner than later.


Archives (2015)8-17-20158-24-20159-8-20159-13-2015Kelly makes right choice with FG call
In the fourth quarter of a game where they trailed 20-3 at the half, Kelly’s team had fought all the way back to take a 24-23 lead but found themselves down two points as they looked for their fourth consecutive second-half scoring drive. New QB Sam Bradford had found a rhythm as the Eagles protection improved and drove the offense from their own 24-yard-line to inside the Falcons 30 with less than 4:00 remaining. Despite all the success Philly had in the second half with their screen game and short passes, Kelly handed the ball off twice to Ryan Matthews, who managed only three yards and left the team with a 4th-and-1 situation.


"Obviously he felt good about the kick right there. They had just stuffed us on 3rd-and-1,” said Bradford. “That’s the bigger issue. If we convert on 3rd-and-1, we’re not even talking about 4th-and-1."


Kelly wrestled with going for it, but came to his senses. With a makeable field goal available to his team as an option and the 2-minute warning up ahead, he sent the kicking team in. Kelly will be the subject of criticism for not rolling the dice, particularly since DeMarco Murray only touched the ball once in the entire fourth quarter, but he made the right decision. It was the same one new Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn had just made, taking the lead as opposed to going for it on 4th-and-3.


The difference? Quinn’s faith in his kicker wasn’t misplaced. Veteran Matt Bryant made his fourth field goal in as many attempts and gave his Falcons back the lead.


Parkey, who some feel was rushed on to the field, affecting his delicate process, pushed a 44-yard field goal attempt wide right. The truth is that while the decision to send the field goal unit out there took 13 seconds, Parkey set his feet and was ready to go with six ticks on the clock and the snap was made with almost four seconds remaining. These are professionals. Everyone executed their jobs but the kicker.


“There's no rhyme or reason to missing. I'm human and I missed. Don't know what to tell you,” Parkey told reporters afterward. “Perfect snap, perfect hold. Obviously I didn't help us win today. It's my fault."


Owning it is noble, but it does nothing to alleviate the bottom line. Parkey has been dealing with a groin injury throughout training camp. He cost them their biggest game of the season in 2014, a 27-24 loss to Washington that took the playoffs out of the equation, by missing from 46 and 33 yards. So, yes, while he set a rookie scoring record with 150 points and wound up in the Pro Bowl, Kelly should have already contemplated a move in the kicking game on the flight home.


Parkey missed a 34-yarder and an extra point in the preseason opener, to which Kelly ironically said, “I wouldn’t push the panic button right now.” He missed another kick in the second game and then sat the last two contests out to rest his injury. While he made no excuses post-game, his inaccuracy is of great concern, especially with extra points pushed back and a key divisional contest against Dallas scheduled later this week.


Kelly will take heat for not putting the ball in Murray’s hands more often. Some will scream about the disparity between runs and passes, since Bradford put the ball up 52 times and Murray, Matthews and Darren Sproles split 16 carries. Nevermind that the screen game and short-passing attack is an extension of the run game, but since the Eagles lost to a team they were favored against, all bets are off. Every criticism is suddenly more valid because his kicker failed to do his job by connecting on a 44-yarder in a dome.


The Eagles got the ball back late, but Jordan Matthews let a ball go through his hands, ultimately resulting in a game-ending interception. It was an emotional ending. A franchise that picked up significant steam in the preseason as money poured in on them due to an impressive start let a city that is starving for a winner down with a resounding series of thuds. The microscopes came out and everyone has had an opinion.


Kelly is in the third year of a controversial tenure where he’s been accused of micro-managing and veiled racism among a list of grievances from those who feel he’ll be the latest high-profile college coach to fail in the pros. He’s won a rather public power struggle with former GM Howie Roseman, taking control over personnel decisions. It seems like it’s time for him to make good use of it.


The 2015 season started poorly for Philadelphia because the kicker failed to do his job, not the head coach. Since Kelly is now also the de facto general manager, it’s time to ease the burden on his coach and get a kicker in there healthy enough to come through when it matters most.


Regarding Parkey, it’s time to push the panic button.


NFL Week 1 recap snapshot


Best games: 1. Rams 34 Seahawks 31 (OT), 2. Cowboys 27, Giants 26, 3. Falcons 26 Eagles 24


Worst games: 1. Bengals 33 Raiders 13, 2. Titans 42 Bucs 14, 3. 49ers 20 Vikings 3


Best players: 1. Marcus Mariota, Titans: 13-16 209 yds 4 TD, 2. Tony Romo, Cowboys: 36-45 356 yds 3 TDs, 3. Philip Rivers, Chargers: 35-42 404 yds 2 TD


Best plays: 1. Romo finds Jason Witten for GW TD w/7 seconds left after dropping the snap to beat NYG, 2. Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry breaks Washington hearts with a 69-yard fourth-quarter punt return for TD to snap a 10-10 tie, 3. (Tie) Broncos CB Aqib Talib returned a Joe Flacco interception 51 yards for the go-ahead TD & safety Darian Stewart made a game-saving pick in the end zone with 28 seconds left, pulling the ball away from Ravens TE Crockett Gilmore.


Best coaching jobs: 1. San Francisco's Jim Tomsula pulled off a 20-3 home upset of Minnesota in a game his 49ers unexpectedly dominated physically. That's how you replace a Jim Harbaugh. 2. The Titans aided Mariota's first day on the job brilliantly, so Ken Whisenhunt and his staff imposed their will on the road and deserve credit. 3. After blowing a massive lead and being forced to play OT, Rams coach Jeff Fisher found a way to keep his team's head up and focused in engineering a huge upset of divisional rival Seattle.


Worst coaching jobs: 1. It doesn't matter whether the blame lies on Eli Manning or head coach Tom Coughlin, handing over upset wins on the road against a division rival is never a good look. That's what happened in Dallas, where the New York Giants imploded both mentally and physically to prevent a 1-0 start. 2. The buzzards are already circling Chuck Pagano, who did nothing to dispel critics as his Colts sputtered in a 27-14 loss at Buffalo.3. Bill O'Brien's decision to ride with Brian Hoyer too long when he was carelessly holding the ball too long and turning it over at home against Kansas City dug his Texans too large a hole for Ryan Mallett to dig out of.


Steam plays: Totals plays backing the OVER in Bills-Colts, Redskins-Dolphins and Eagles-Falcons. They were also on the wrong side of UNDER calls in Seahawks-Rams and Browns-Jets, which pushed at 41 or lost depending on when you got in on it. Sharps were all over Buffalo's "upset" of the Colts, which ended up closing as a pick'em.


Close calls and bad beats: The Monday night game could've gone either way until Kelly made his decision to send out Parkey. The majority of the public was on Philly -3 and the over 55, so seeing the kicker trot out there down 26-24 as opposed to going for it on 4th-and-1 elicited one collective groan. The Packers held on at -6.5/7 with a 31-23 win that wasn't clinched until they recovered the onside kick with :33 left. Clay Matthews intercepted Jay Cutler at the 12-yard-line with 3:41 to go to protect the lead and both teams added touchdowns to produce the OVER in the final minute when Cutler hit Martellus Bennett for a 24-yard score on 4th & 8.


The Chargers (-3.5) won and covered despite falling behind Detroit 21-3. Rivers led the comeback with 30 consecutive points and Chargers-backers started breathing sighs of relief when Danny Woodhead put them up 33-21 with 6:08 to go. Week 1 began with the Steelers rescuing a push, or in some cases a cover at +7.5, when Ben Roethlisberger found Antonio Brown on a perfect pass to the corner of the end zone with seconds remaining. Considering the bulk of public money was on New England, Vegas sportsbooks dodged a bullet there.


Key injuries: Baltimore LB Terrell Suggs (Knee, OFY), Dallas WR Dez Bryant (Broken foot, out 6-8 weeks), Denver RB CJ Anderson (Foot, Expected to play Week 2), N.Y. Jets CB Antonio Cromartie (ACL sprain, week-to-week), Oakland QB Derek Carr (Hand, week-to-week), Indianapolis WR T.Y. Hilton (Knee bruise, week-to-week), Arizona RB Andre Ellington (Knee, Out 3 weeks), Carolina LB Luke Kuechly (Concussion, week-to-week), N.Y. Jets LB Lorenzo Mauldin (Concussion, questionable), Cleveland QB Josh McCown (Concussion, week-to-week), Washington WR DeSean Jackson (Hamstring, out 3-4 weeks), Oakland S Nate Allen (Torn ACL, OFY), Oakland S Charles Woodson (Shoulder, out indefinitely)

 

[CNOTES]

Falcons sign veteran OT Jake Long


September 15, 2015


FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) The Atlanta Falcons have signed offensive tackle Jake Long, adding more experience to a rebuilt line.


The signing was announced by coach Dan Quinn on Tuesday.


Long was cut by the Rams in a salary cap move in March. He has had two surgeries to repair torn ligaments in his right knee the last two years while with St. Louis. He has 96 career starts since going first overall in the 2008 draft to Miami.


If fully recovered, Long could push Ryan Schraeder for the starting job at right tackle or play behind Schraeder and left tackle Jake Matthews.


Adam Levitre started at left guard in Monday night's 26-24 win over the Eagles after being acquired from Tennessee on Sept. 4. Center Mike Person and right guard Chris Chester also are new starters.


The Falcons waived safety Charles Godfrey.

 

[CNOTES]

Handicapping Week 2


September 16, 2015



Transitioning from Week 1 to Week 2 in the NFL


As usual, the NFL opening weekend was jam packed with storylines, highlight performances, and major surprises.


Defending champion New England & Tom Brady dominated Pittsburgh on opening night, Bills’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor and Titans’ rookie QB Marcus Mariota were sensational in upset wins, while St. Louis and San Francisco also pulled out improbable victories. Most experts had written off the 49ers’ chances after an offseason of transition. Speaking of being written off, how about that amazing 4th quarter comeback by the Cowboys on Sunday night against New York?


It was certainly an exciting start to the season. Of course, for our purposes, as we look ahead as bettors, we are most interested in how the Week 1 results can be used to turn into Week 2 profits. That’s where this article comes in, as we have analyzed numerous Week 1 to Week 2 transitional situations in the NFL to uncover some highly profitable systems to utilize in the coming weekend.


Before getting into the top Week 2 systems and plays however, let’s theorize as to why some of this logic might be successful. First off, the NFL is a huge momentum league, and with one game every week, it gives a team a lot of time to either stew on a loss or bask in a victory. During this time, the losing teams may be starting to doubt themselves, or the winning teams may be thinking too highly of their own games. The betting public and media glorifies this type of thinking, and expects that what they just saw in Week 1 is the new standard.


Bookmakers are thus placed in a precarious position of having to balance what just happened with what could/should happen in the follow-up week.


In our opinion, these systems come as a result of bookmakers not wanting to over-adjust. They have a tendency to do this in college football and it opens up a number of unwarranted early season value plays.


In the pro’s, with all the money that is wagered each week, they realize that they can’t radically adjust their lines in such a short window simply because of one game result. They are forced to wait out the first few weeks of any given season in hopes that everything balances out.


Think of this explanation as you read through each system, and trust in the ones that you think make the most sense.


In all there are 22 different angles, each with a winning percentage of at least 60%.


1) Week 2 teams playing as favorites or underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points in the prior week are 28-6 SU & 24-7-3 ATS (77.4%) since '03 (+16.3 units, R.O.I.: 52.5%, Rating: 8*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, INDIANAPOLIS, GREEN BAY, & CHICAGO (note: SD & CIN cancel each other out)


Analysis: Over the last two seasons, this system is a solid 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS with five of six teams winning and covering their respective pointspread handily a year ago. It seems that these 30-point teams may have overachieved in Week 1 and are naturally due for a letdown, or an overinflated line in Week 2.


2) Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season opening game and thus have extra rest are 11-9 SU & 16-3-1 ATS (84.2%) in Week 2 since '05 (+12.7 units, R.O.I.: 66.8%, Rating: 7*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO


Analysis: Routine, Routine, Routine. Teams that play in the season opener are out of that typical routine, and most teams rely on that for peak performance throughout the season. Seattle and Tampa Bay made this system a perfect 2-0 ATS in 2013, and San Diego (W) & the Jets (L, ATS Push) were 1-0-1 ATS a year ago. San Francisco, facing Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, hosting New England, will provide two more opportunities to cash in for 2015.


3) Teams that lost their opening game on the road bounce back at a 28-15 SU & 30-12-1 ATS (71.4%) rate when playing at home in Week 2 over the L5 seasons. (+16.8 units, R.O.I.: 40%, Rating: 7*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NEW ORLEANS, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, NY GIANTS, PHILADELPHIA, & INDIANAPOLIS


Analysis: This system typically produces a lot of teams qualifying each season, and going into last season, teams in this scenario were a sterling 14-2-1 ATS in the prior two years!!! However, last year’s six teams split their games both SU & ATS, a possible cooling of the system. Still, home openers can provide much needed incentive to turn some negative momentum around. This is a classic example of how oddsmakers trap bettors into thinking Week 1’s results are the new norm.


4) Teams that lost on the pointspread by 15 or more points in Week 1 divisional games are 8-4 SU & 10-1-1 ATS (90.9%) in Week 2 since '07 (+8.9 units, R.O.I.: 80.9%, Rating: 7*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately


Analysis: Second week pointspread adjustments tend to go against teams that were blown out by divisional opponents in Week 1, in most cases over-adjustments. In the one qualifying game on this system in 2014, New England crushed Minnesota to even its season record at 1-1. This was an important win for the Patriots, who went on to win the Super Bowl.


5) Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 13-7 SU & 15-5 ATS (75%) in Week 2 since '04 (+9.5 units, R.O.I.: 47.5%, Rating: 6*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately


Analysis: The motivation of being an underdog to a divisional opponent provides the needed incentive for these Week 2 dogs to pull the upset. This has been an outstanding money line system over the years as well, hitting at 65% on outright winners, so don’t ignore that betting option.


6) Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 27-10 SU & 25-11-1 ATS (69.4%) since '03 (+13 units, R.O.I.: 35.1%, Rating: 6*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON DALLAS


Analysis: Divisional games typically require greater focus and intensity, and these teams are well prepared the second time around. Miami was the only qualifier last season and lost, so keep that in mind, although a single loss certainly isn’t enough to suggest a turn on this system. There were only three divisional tilts in Week 1 this season.


7) Week 2 teams that went under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 15-3 OVER (83.3%) the total since '08 (+11.7 units, R.O.I.: 65%, Rating: 6*)


2015 Potential Plays: OVER in SF-PIT, DET-MIN, STL-WAS, MIA-JAC


Analysis: These teams fully underachieved offensively in Week 1, creating a situation where oddsmakers adjust their total downward erroneously. Both games in this system a year ago easily surpassed the posted total.


8) Teams that beat their Week 1 pointspread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 14-3-1 UNDER (82.4%) the total in Week 2 since '02 (+10.7 units, R.O.I.: 62.9%, Rating: 6*)


2015 Potential Plays: UNDER in HOU-CAR, TEN-CLE


Analysis: These Week 1 overachievers lit it up against unfamiliar opponents. In Week 2, they typically come back down to earth offensively against higher totals.


9) Teams that lost as road favorites in week have bounced back with a record of 9-4 SU & 11-2 ATS (84.6%) in Week 2 over the L4 seasons (+8.8 units, R.O.I.: 67.6%, Rating: 6*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, & SEATTLE


Analysis: Week 1 road favorites are obviously highly regarded teams. They have proven good enough to be able to bounce back from a loss in that game, in most cases avoiding a 0-2 start. Last year, the two qualifiers split, with the Patriots posting a resounding 30-7 win over Minnesota, and the Saints falling to 0-2 after losing at Cleveland.


10) Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 20-9-1 UNDER (69.0%) the total in Week 2 since '05 (+10.1 units, R.O.I.: 34.8%, Rating: 5*)


2015 Potential Plays: UNDER in STL-WAS, ATL-NYG, & DAL-PHI


Analysis: In all honesty, this one is tough to explain…but its success is tough to argue. A perfect 4-0 record in 2014 bounced this system up seven spots in our ranking for 2015.


11) Of the last 19 teams that were upset in Week 1 divisional games, 14 have gone OVER (14-5, 73.6%) the total in Week 2 (+7.5 units, R.O.I.: 39.5%, Rating: 5*)


2015 Potential Plays: OVER in SEA-GB


Analysis: In all likelihood, these teams that were upset in Week 1 underperformed, especially offensively, and come back flying in Week 2. Last year, this system was just 1-3, with the losing teams mustering just 10.0 PPG, so beware of a shift.


12) Teams that lost close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 14-5 OVER (73.6%) the total in Week 2 since '08 (+8.5 units, R.O.I.: 44.7%, Rating: 5*)


2015 Potential Plays: OVER in ATL-NYG, DAL-PHI, & SEA-GB


Analysis: As it has turned out lately, teams losing heartbreakers in Week 1 have either slipped defensively in Week 2 or gained an increased focus offensively. Last year’s three games on this system all won.


13) Teams facing opponents that allowed 38 or more points in Week 1 are 15-7 SU & 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) coming back in Week 2 since '02 (+8.4 units, R.O.I.: 38.2%, Rating: 5*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NEW ORLEANS


Analysis: Playing against teams that came up bad defensively in Week 1 is a good idea, as in many cases, the ground has already been laid for these being bet against teams for the season.


14) Week 1 favorites of 6-points or more that lost their game have bounced back with a record of 10-3 SU & ATS (76.9%) in Week 2 since '02 (+6.7 units, R.O.I.: 51.5%, Rating: 4*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately


Analysis: Teams favored by 6-points or more in Week 1 are typically well-respected clubs in the NFL, and naturally they tend to bounce back when aided by a sense of urgency. In 2014, the Bears qualified for this system after losing at home in Week 1 and responded with a big upset win at San Francisco. All three of the bigger favorites of 2015 Week 1 were victorious.


15) Teams that lost as road favorites have gone 10-3 OVER (76.9%) the total in Week 2 over the L4 seasons (+6.7 units, R.O.I.: 51.5%, Rating: 4*)


2015 Potential Plays: OVER in DET-MIN, DAL-PHI, SEA-GB, & NYJ-IND


Analysis: Only teams with potent offenses are granted roles as road favorites this early in the season, and after an upset loss in Week 1, these teams typically respond with big offensive performances.


16) Week 1 underdogs of 7-points or more that won ATS in their game are 7-7 SU & 8-3-3 ATS (72.7%) in Week 2 since '06 (+4.7 units, R.O.I.: 42.7%, Rating: 4*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NY GIANTS


Analysis: Perhaps these teams are better than oddsmakers and other so-called experts realize. Last year, the Colts qualified for this system but were in the second of back-to-back difficult games in the schedule and lost at home to Philadelphia on Monday Night.


17) Teams that scored 35 points or more in Week 1 are 16-9-1 OVER (64%) the total in Week 2 since '07 (+6.1 units, R.O.I.: 24.4%, Rating: 4*)


2015 Potential Plays: OVER in TEN-CLE


Analysis: Oddsmakers simply can’t put totals high enough on these teams as they get on an early season roll offensively. Bear in mind that two of the three games that qualified for this system in 2014 lost so perhaps oddsmakers are reacting quickly to the high scoring potential.


18) Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 15-9 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) since '06 (+5.2 units, R.O.I.: 23.6%, Rating: 4*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON GREEN BAY


Analysis: Momentum created by a big divisional win in Week 1 seems to carryover well into Week 2.


19) Week 2 home teams that pulled upsets as road underdogs in Week 1 are 15-8 SU & 13-8-2 ATS (61.9%) since '06 (+4.2 units, R.O.I.: 20%, Rating: 4*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately


Analysis: Week 1 road upsets have proven to be a big momentum builder for teams heading into Week 2. Most often these teams are headed for 2-0. Three of the record high five qualifying teams for 2014 won their games. Tennessee was the only road underdog winner in Week 1 but plays another road game this week at Cleveland.


20) Teams that played as road favorites in Week 1 have gone 29-18-1 OVER (61.7%) the total in Week 2 since '06 (+9.2 units, R.O.I.: 19.5%, Rating: 4*)


2015 Potential Plays: OVER in DEN-KC, HOU-CAR, DET-MIN, SD-CIN, MIA-JAC, DAL-PHI, SEA-GB, & NYJ-IND


Analysis: Again, Week 1 road favorites are typically the best offensive teams in football, OVER’s a natural tendency. This system is off a 2-1 performance in 2014.


21) Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 14-9-1 OVER (60.8%) the total since '06 (+4.1 units, R.O.I.: 17.8%, Rating: 3*)


2015 Potential Plays: OVER in GB-SEA


Analysis: These teams come into Week 2 games with a lot of momentum based on their big divisional win, and that typically results in another strong offensive effort. After a 0-2 record a year ago however, this system is in danger of falling off our 60%+ list.


22) Teams that were upset in Week 1 divisional games bounce back at a 18-10 SU & 17-11 ATS (60.7%) rate in Week 2 since '02 (+4.9 units, R.O.I.: 17.5%, Rating: 3*)


2015 Potential Plays: Play ON SEATTLE


Analysis: Urgency. Teams upset by divisional foes in Week 1 naturally come into Week 2 with a greater sense of urgency. Two of four teams qualifying won a year ago, but this system is also on the verge of elimination on our list.


Good luck with your Week 2 NFL plays!

 

[CNOTES]

TNF - Broncos at Chiefs


September 16, 2015




You've heard this one before, but keep reading anyway.


Peyton Manning is done. It’s over.


The future Hall of Famer is already making more appearances in Papa John’s commercials than he does in highlight reels, unless you count the ones where his recent struggles are being documented. Let’s go ahead and hit the pause button on that narrative right there.


On Thursday night, all eyes will be on Manning as he takes the field in Kansas City for a key early AFC West showdown. Most will be looking to see another indication that the NFL’s all-time leader in career touchdown passes has lost it. The Chiefs are three-point favorites. Denver has only been an underdog six times since he joined the franchise in 2012, going 2-4 straight up in those contests. One of those wins as an underdog came in last year's visit to Kansas City, where the Broncos held serve 29-16 in a game that went under the posted total. Both of last season's meetings failed to eclipse the number, as the under is 4-1-1 since Manning joined the Broncos.


Manning, who failed to lead his offense into the end zone in Denver’s 19-13 win over Baltimore, has been saddled with the lowest projected total (42.5) for a game involving his Broncos since 2012, when the regular-season finale against these Chiefs closed at 41. Over the past two seasons, the lowest total involving Denver and their hurry-up offense closed at 47. Including the playoffs, 20 Broncos games have had a projected total of 50 or higher. Welcome to 2015, Peyton.


Prevailing sentiment is that he can no longer run a productive offense. The fact the Broncos defense look like world-beaters also factors in, but respect for the five-time MVP is unquestionably at an all-time low. The over was actually a healthy 10-6 last season despite hovering at an average of nearly 49, almost a full touchdown above what it will be set at here. The under went 11-5 in Chiefs games last season, but lost in Week 1 as turnovers were turned into points in a 27-20 win over Houston.


Over the last seven games, a stretch which began with last year’s trip to Arrowhead (Nov. 30) and includes a 24-13 home playoff loss to Indianapolis, the 39-year-old Manning has thrown just six touchdowns against seven interceptions as Denver games have come in under the posted total in five of seven. He’s completed 160 of 241 passes for 1455 yards in that span, so his yards per attempt is barely over 6.00, which ranks among the bottom 20 percent of starting quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts.


He’s only topped more than 10 yards per attempt once in the last seven games (Dec. 14 at SD), and his QBR has been over 90 only once (same game). Even if you scoff at the numbers and point out that the Broncos are 5-2 in those starts, it’s obvious Manning’s days of being the driving force within an offense appear over.


To say he’s done, in my opinion, is a massive overreaction. It’s downright disrespectful. People have been looking to sprinkle dirt on Manning’s open coffin for the past few seasons. Remember when he came back from neck fusion surgery after missing the entire 2011 season? Remember reading about the journey of his comeback, from teaching himself how to throw again to building back up strength? Parts of his upper body atrophied. There were people imploring for him to retire.


Manning hasn’t missed a game since. He’s played in four playoff contests. He’s delivered nearly 1,500 passes. He led the league in passing yardage and passing touchdowns in 2013. He’s made two more Pro Bowls and won another MVP.


He has no feeling in his fingertips. His passes often wobble like the 10-year-old who is learning to throw a spiral.


He’s won 30 of 43 NFL games in that span, including the first one of this season, defeating a Ravens team considered a co-favorite in a loaded AFC North. Sportsbook.ag still has the Broncos (5-to-1) behind only New England (3-to-1) to win the conference. If Manning were really done, you would think Denver would be getting better odds.


This seven-game stretch we’re trying to bury Manning for has featured an intrusive quad injury that caused last season’s dramatic dip and an adjustment to a brand new system while facing an elite Baltimore defense in the 2015 opener.


That brings us back to Thursday and the opening game of Week 2. The stage is all Manning’s to thrive or fail on, but we should get used to the reality that putting an entire team on his shoulders is no longer in his job description. He’ll share the spotlight with his impressive defense and a running game expected to be fortified by new head coach Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme that has moved Manning into more of game manager role. Once he grows accustomed to what he’s doing, he’ll probably excel in it.


Kubiak heeded Broncos Executive vice president and GM John Elway’s call to return home in part to help Manning navigate the final years of his career while attempting to take full advantage of a defense that is going to be the driving force these next few years, hopefully resulting in one more Super Bowl run. To try and write Manning off because he didn’t look comfortable in the season opener reeks of Tim Duncan syndrome. Just because he’s never going to throw 55 touchdowns again doesn’t mean he can’t get back to throwing 26, a number he’s hit three separate times as a tremendous career-low. It doesn’t mean he can’t will a strong team to a championship the way the Spurs star has on multiple occasions despite being past his prime.


We’re watching Manning begin the process of his final manifestation. Barring injury, you won’t see backup Brock Osweiler taking the field to replace an ineffective Manning. He’s too valuable recognizing coverages and making the right calls and reads to deliver wins like the 19-13 result Denver escaped with in Week 1.


Andy Reid is authoring a similar blue print in Kansas City, building an offense around an elite back in Jamaal Charles while trusting Alex Smith to make the right decisions at the controls. Defensive stars like Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe up front are going to help win a lot of football games, as they managed to in wreaking havoc in the Houston Texans backfield last Sunday. Can they effectively get to Manning, who was uncharacteristically sacked four times by Baltimore?


Reid is coaching in just his third home opener since taking over the Chiefs and is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS, losing last season's first game at Arrowhead 26-10 to a Titans team that won just two games all season. Reid wasn't strong in home openers in Philadelphia, going just 5-9 there before departing after the 2012 season.


Certainly, if you’re looking to fade Manning, the circumstances appear to be in your favor. Arrowhead Stadium provides one of the loudest atmospheres in the league, one that is capable of helping swallow an unstable offense. The Chiefs went 1-2 in primetime games last season, but crushed the Patriots 41-14 at home on a Monday night, ironically beating them so badly that some were looking to write New England off on Sept. 29. Kansas City's defense is fierce and should benefit from Broncos playmakers C.J. Anderson (foot) and Demariyus Thomas (hand) both operating at less than 100 percent. The Chiefs are the much healthier team, though projecting starting corner Sean Smith will miss this game, serving the second of a three-game suspension.


Manning is 11-1 in his career against the Chiefs, including a 6-0 mark (4-2 ATS) with Denver, but the quarterback that amassed those figures isn’t the same guy you’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Do you still believe in this new version’s ability to go on the road and intelligently lead his team through obstacles? Your wager will largely hinge on that answer, so be careful underestimating a quarterback who has spent most of this decade beating the odds.


Greatness tends to manifest itself in different ways. Manning may find a way to do it as a game manager. This also may be far too great a challenge to overcome this early in his new endeavor. All eyes are squarely on him.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, September 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Broncos at Chiefs
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas City eased to a 27-20 win at Houston that was not as close as the final score indicated.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 41.5)

The Denver Broncos have won four consecutive AFC West titles but they'll face an early-season showdown for division supremacy when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night. The Broncos failed to score an offensive touchdown in a 19-13 victory over visiting Baltimore while Kansas City eased to a 27-20 win at Houston that was not as close as the final score indicated.

Denver quarterback Peyton Manning attempted to allay concerns over the lack of productivity from the offense as the team adopts more of a ball-control offense under new coach Gary Kubiak. "Everybody is looking for these summaries of our offense and our team after Week 1 and I just don't think we're going to be able to do that," Manning said. "It's Week 1. We're a work in progress. ... We're trying to get better every single week." Meanwhile, the Chiefs shot out to a 27-9 halftime lead over the Texans behind three scoring passes from Alex Smith, but they face a nemesis in Manning and the Broncos. Denver has won six consecutive meetings in the series, including its last four visits to Kansas City.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point home faves but that is now up to -3. The total is down to 41.5 from the opening 43.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - QB Peyton Manning (Probable, back), LB Lerentee McCray (Probable, groin), S David Bruton Jr. (Probable, ankle), WR Demaryius Thomas (Probable, hand), S Darian Stewart (Questionable, groin), DE Malik Jackson (Questionable, concussion), RB C.J. Anderson (Questionable, toe), S Omar Bolden (Doubtful, foot), DE Kenny Anunike (Out, knee). Chiefs - LB Tamba Hali (Probable, neck), DB Sean Smith (Eligible Week 4, suspension).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 15 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the north at around 14 miles per hour.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-4) + Chiefs (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver showed on Sunday that they are capable of winning games against solid foes even when Peyton Manning looks like the 39-year-old QB that he is. Alex Smith still didn't throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver, but he did throw three TD?s to TE Travis Kelce and RB Jamaal Charles."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Chiefs as 2.5 point faves at home and after the struggles of the Denver offense on Sunday we went to Chiefs -3 where we currently sit adjusting the juice as the week has moved on. The Chiefs are seeing 58 percent of the action to cover the spread as of writing this."

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Manning's arm strength, or lack thereof, has been a hot-button topic throughout the preseason and he finished with only 175 yards without a scoring pass in the opener, but he has thrown for 1,736 yards with 16 TDs versus three interceptions in six meetings against the Chiefs since joining Denver. C.J. Anderson was limited to 29 yards on 12 carries while dealing with a sprained toe, but he was at practice Tuesday night along with star wideout Demaryius Thomas, who suffered a hand injury versus Baltimore. The Broncos' defense, which produced the lone touchdown in Week 1 on Aqib Talib's interception return, limited the Ravens to only 173 total yards.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): Smith has been typecast as a game manager but he got a vote of confidence - “Alex was on the money all day” - from tight end Travis Kelce, who had a huge opening game with six catches for 106 yards and a pair of scores. Running back Jamaal Charles had a relative quiet season debut with 57 yards rushing while matching newcomer Jeremy Maclin with five catches, but he has scored 15 touchdowns in his last 14 games overall. Kansas City yielded an AFC-low 281 points last season and received a boost with the return of linebacker Derrick Johnson, who registered a team-high eight tackles in his first game back after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC West.
* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of users are the Chiefs.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, September 17


Small chance of thunderstorms at Arrowhead Stadium

According to weather forecasts, there is around a 15 percent chance of thunderstorms scheduled for the early stages of the Denver Broncos' visit to the Kansas City Chiefs before shooting up to a 60 percent possibility later in the game.

Furthermore, wind is expected to blow toward the north corner of the stadium at around 14 mils per hour during the game.

The Chiefs are presently 3-point home faves for the showdown with their AFC West rivals. The total, which opened at 32, is down to 41.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 2 line moves


Following a 28-21 win against the Steelers in Week 1, the Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 where they have gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.


With Week 1 in the books, we now turn our attention to Week 2. The 2015 NFL season curtain raiser gave us many talking points, but bettors will be able to get more of a feel where certain teams stand and see which teams are for real and which teams were nothing more than a flash in the pan.


Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns - Open: -2.5, Move: +1


It was a fantastic debut from rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Titans who crushed fellow rookie Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42-14 and covered the spread by a whopping 31 points in Week 1. Now, Mariota and the Titans travel to Cleveland where Titans money has flipped this line from one side of a Pick to the other.


"Despite the line flipping from Titans +2.5 on Monday all the way to them being a 1-point favorite, the action on the Titans has not slowed," Sloan tells Covers. "Bets are still 7-1 on Tennessee, and the money action is 4-1 on them as well. Some of the sharps were lucky enough to grab Tennessee at 2 and 2.5, so the value bets seem to be gone at this point. We would expect this line to possibly move another half point to 1.5, but not much more than that."




Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -10.5, Move: -10


Speaking of Winston, it wasn't the opener that he and the Bucs envisioned, but surely there's nowhere to go but up from the shellacking in Week 1. Considering the Saints closed out 2014 with an 0-5 record both straight up and against the spread in their last five home games, perhaps New Orleans is the place where Winston and the Bucs can right the ship.


"We opened this matchup Saints -10.5, moving Saints -10 on Monday with 57 percent of the action coming in on the Saints to cover," Stewart tells Covers. "I can see us moving to Saints -9.5 come the weekend as I think the sharps will back the Bucs to cover, with the poor defense of the Saints allowing Tampa to put points on the board."




Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers - Open: -3, Move: -3.5


In what could be a forecast of a playoff matchup come January, the Packers host the Seahawks in one of the marquee matchups on the Week 2 docket. The Seahawks have traditionally not fared well in their visits to Wisconsin and the betting patterns on this game reflect that with a bit of faith in the home team.


"We don’t anticipate this line from moving off of GB -3.5," Sloan says. "The house is going to need Seattle plus the 3.5 for our lunch money come Sunday, but we’re fine with that. Currently, the bets are at 2-1 on GB, and the money is at 4-1, however the sharps have yet to pile in to show us who they like. With a steady line, there isn’t much need for them to act in advance."




New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Open: +1.5, Move: Pick, Move: +1.5


Thanks to a 27-14 win over the Indianapolis Colts as 1-point home dogs, Rex Ryan's Bills were a big Week1 highlight, but they'll face a stern test from a familiar foe in the New England Patriots.


The Pats have owned the Bills in upstate New York, posting a record of 9-2 ATS in the previous 11 meetings in Buffalo and, according to Stewart, bettors like the majority of action is on the Pats to keep that trend alive Sunday.


"This is a matchup I really like Belichick and the Patriots offense vs Ryan and the Bills defense," Stewart says. "We opened the Patriots as 1.5-point faves on the road and getting as low as a pick’em before moving back up to the Patriots -1.5 with 78 percent of the action to cover. I like the bills in this spot at home and I think the sharps will back the Bills as we get closer to game time."

 

[CNOTES]

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores


8:25 PM EDT


101 DENVER BRONCOS 45 41.5 / 42 / 42.5 42 +150
102 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2.5 -15 -3 -15 / -3 -20 / -3 -15 -3 -25 -170


DEN-RB-C.J. Anderson-Probable | DEN-WR-Demaryius Thomas-Probable | TV: CBS, NFL, DTV: 212 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. SOUTH WIND 12-17. GAME TEMP 84, RH 62% HEAT INDEX 89




-----------------------------------------




NFL Consensus Picks


SIDES (ATS)


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds


8:25 PM Denver +3 1196 42.11% Kansas City -3 1644 57.89% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)


Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds


8:25 PM Denver 42 1360 61.57% Kansas City 42 849 38.43% View View

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Denver - 8:25 PM ET Kansas City -3 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Kansas City - Under 42 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 9/17/15 )

THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTS:
DOUBLE PLAYS: 1 - 1

15 - 12 GOING INTO WEEK # 2


*****.......................................... 3 - 3
double play..................................10 - 6
triple play....................................1 - 3
blow out......................................1 - 0
gom.............................................0 - 0
goy............................................. 0 - 0
totals.......................................... 6 - 7 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 2
TRIPLE PLAY.............................0 - 0
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................0 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.............................1 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0



Going into Sunday Afternoon Football

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action

September 16, 2015


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-0) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -6.5, Total: 44


The Steelers look to avoid an 0-2 hole to start the season on Sunday afternoon when they host the 49ers for the first time since 2007.


San Francisco RB Carlos Hyde stole the show on Monday Night Football with a league-best 168 rushing yards, and despite a painfully ugly first half of football versus Minnesota, the black and red clad Niners didn’t seem all that different from the team that went to three straight NFC Title games. The defense, led by LB NaVorro Bowman, looked fast and violent, QB Colin Kaepernick was quick and decisive, and Hyde looked like he was the All-Pro instead of the returning Adrian Peterson, leading his team to a 20-3 victory.


Pittsburgh will again be without RB Le’Veon Bell, serving the final game of his suspension, which means the DeAngelo Williams revival tour will get another week in the spotlight. Williams racked up 127 yards on the ground in the 28-21 loss to New England, providing this matchup of the surprising leading rushers in each conference. These two storied franchises haven’t met since 2011 and haven’t played in the Steel City since a 37-16 Steelers win in 2007. The teams have alternated victories in the four meetings since 1999, all four of those decided by at least 16 points. The losing team has scored less than 20 points in all 13 meetings since 1969.


In the 2011 matchup, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger had one of the worst games of his career, throwing three picks with zero touchdowns, marking the only game since 2009 where he had 0 TD and 3 INT. The Steelers are 1-8 SU when Roethlisberger throws 3+ interceptions and San Francisco led the NFL with 23 picks last season. The Niners are 4-2 ATS versus the Steelers since 1992, including 2-1 ATS in Pittsburgh, while Kaepernick is 16-8 ATS in his career on the road.


Kaepernick’s numbers last Monday night didn't blow anybody away at 17-of-26 for 165 yards, but his 41 rushing yards and overall control of the offensive unit looked a lot more like the budding superstar from 2013 than last year’s shell of a player. CB Tramaine Brock had the lone 49ers takeaway, a fourth quarter interception of Teddy Bridgewater, and the rest of the defense flew around like the elite unit they used to be. LB NaVorro Bowman, in his first game since 2013, was one of five Niners with a sack while holding the Vikings offense to just 248 total yards.


San Francisco tallied 395 yards of offense, a number it eclipsed just three times last season, and without the eight penalties, that number could’ve been north of 450. This bodes well for Week 2, as the club is 8-1 on the road when throwing for 150-to-200 yards in the past three seasons with the average margin of victory at 12.4 points per game. The only noticeable weakness for San Francisco was the special teams. Aging kicker Phil Dawson was not sharp once again, rugby star and fan-favorite Jarryd Hayne muffed the first punt of his career, and multiple flags spoiled a brilliant return to the house by WR Bruce Ellington.


Williams’ rushing total last Thursday was his best single-game mark since the final contest of the 2012 season and his first 100+ yard game in nearly two seasons. Ben Roethlisberger was average by his standards in Week 1, throwing for 351 yards, but just one meaningless late-game score to accompany a fourth quarter interception. Pittsburgh's offense moved the ball up and down the field all evening in Foxboro, but a pair of missed field goals and countless missed opportunities left them out in the cold despite outgaining the Pats 464-361.


One encouraging trend for this matchup is San Francisco’s 13-27 mark ATS when allowing 400-to-450 total yards (22-43 ATS when allowing 400+) since 1992. After not forcing a turnover versus New England, the Steelers will look to get back to playing their brand of football, as they’re 8-0 when their defense forces two turnovers in the past three seasons.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-0) at BUFFALO BILLS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -1.5, Total: 45

A pair of AFC East rivals collide in upstate New York on Sunday when the Bills host the Patriots.

New England QB Tom Brady looked like vintage Tom Brady on opening night, while Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor looked like, well, somebody with a stingy defense led by a modern-day mastermind supporting him.

Brady led his Pats out of the tunnel to watch their Super Bowl banner raised and he quickly reminded everybody exactly who still runs the NFL. All Brady did last Thursday versus Pittsburgh was go 25-of-32 for 288 yards with 4 TD passes and no interceptions. It was the 16th time in his illustrious career that he threw for 4+ TD while not tossing a pick. He accomplished the feat twice last season, one of which came in Orchard Park in a 37-22 Pats victory over the Bills.


Buffalo may have given the surprise performance of opening weekend, a 27-14 defensive clinic against Andrew Luck and the Colts. Buffalo took the ball away three times and grabbed a pair of sacks while Taylor’s offensive unit put up zeroes in both categories. Early season success is nothing new for the Bills though, as they’re 30-15 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. Buffalo’s defense needs to impose its will on New England, and if they can keep the score low, they’ll have a shot.

Over the past three seasons, New England is 0-7 ATS when scoring 15-21 points, a number that new Bills head coach Rex Ryan would be thrilled to see for the visitor this Sunday. The Patriots have struggled in games when the turnover battle is even, going 2-8 ATS in the past three seasons in those games, including 0-7 ATS on the road. However, Tom Brady has a career 23-3 record against Buffalo, which is his best (most wins and best win pct) against any opponent he’s faced more than five times in his career.

New England’s defense didn't shine against Pittsburgh, but is due to bounce back against a quarterback with such little game experience, as since 1992 the Pats are 39-19 ATS the week after being outgained by 100 yards, and Bill Belichick is 24-10 ATS in such games in his career. Overall, New England holds a 26-17 mark ATS versus Buffalo, but the club has split the past four meetings ATS.

Two of Brady's four TD passes against Buffalo last year went to WR Brandon LaFell who currently sits on the PUP list with a bad foot, the other two went to former backup TE Tim Wright and little-known WR Brian Tyms. Fast forward to this week and Brady will have all hands on deck with the exception of RB LeGarrette Blount, who’s still serving his suspension for an incident while with the Steelers last season. That should be a huge omission though, as Brady got no help from the running game at Buffalo last year as his team gained only 50 yards on 27 carries.

Brady connected with seven different receivers last week including a 1-yard scoring strike to former Bills TE Scott Chandler, 11 balls to WR Julian Edelman, and three touchdowns to All-Pro TE Rob Gronkowski. RB Dion Lewis impressed last week, totaling 120 scrimmage yards on 19 touches in Blount’s place.

The defense was just good enough last week against the AFC’s top offense from last season, as Pittsburgh racked up nearly 500 yards of offense with arguably the best running back in the NFL sitting out. New England was statistically beaten in every category with the exception of the two that matter, turnovers and points.

Bills QB Tyrod Taylor was efficient in Week 1, going 14-of-19 for 195 yards and a touchdown pass to new WR Percy Harvin. Taylor added 41 yards on the ground, the same total as star RB LeSean McCoy who did add 46 receiving yards to his tally. Taylor and McCoy will need to move the chains on the ground, as New England is 5-1 ATS when allowing 75-to-100 rush yards in the past three years.

Rex Ryan will need to correct two glaring flaws from last week in order to defeat his nemesis. Buffalo had a league-high 113 penalty yards and finished the game just 5-of-13 on third downs. When the opposing quarterback holds a career mark of 23-3 against your franchise, those kinds of mistakes lose games.

Buffalo won a meaningless final matchup of last season at Foxboro, holding the Pats, who had nothing to play for getting ready for the playoffs, to just nine points in the victory, although it’s unlikely that Brady’s backup will be seeing the playing time he did in that meeting. Brady’s two legitimate losses to the Bills both came in Orchard Park, throwing four picks in each of those contests (2011 & 2003). The 2003 game was easily the worst of Brady’s career, and whether it was a lifetime ago or not, two of his six career games with four interceptions have come in Buffalo.


DALLAS COWBOYS (1-0) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Philadelphia -5.5, Total: 56

Fresh off a masterful, game-winning drive in Week 1, Tony Romo leads the Cowboys to Philly on Sunday afternoon to see old friend DeMarco Murray and the Eagles.

In a wild opening weekend for the NFC East, only the Cowboys emerged victorious, and with a win in Philly could get early season pole position in the division race. The loss of top WR Dez Bryant will loom large over the next 6-to-8 weeks, especially in a matchup with the high-scoring Eagles offense. Dallas will need to be much sharper than its three-turnover performance against New York, as the Cowboys were one of just two teams (St. Louis) to win in Week 1 despite multiple turnovers.

Dallas wasn’t great against the Giants, but seemed to come up with a play in the biggest moments of the game. Playing keep-away from New York in the first half kept Eli Manning and company out of rhythm despite not committing a turnover. New York possessed the ball for only 8:01 in the first half against Dallas, which will be a recipe for success for Rod Marinelli and the Cowboys defense against Chip Kelly’s offense.

Dallas will need to find a way to get after Philadelphia QB Sam Bradford who, like Romo, didn’t go down a single time in Week 1. DT Tyrone Crawford had the only Cowboys sack in the season opener, but the front seven seemed to keep Manning off balance and uncomfortable all night.

In the past two seasons, Dallas is 6-0 ATS when playing on grass and also 6-0 ATS when playing a road game following a home game. They’re also a team that loves being slighted by the sharps; the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS as underdogs in the past three years.

However, Philadelphia has been a resilient bunch under Chip Kelly, as the Eagles are 6-0 ATS coming off of a road loss in the past three years.

Dallas QB Tony Romo will be adjusting to life without WR Dez Bryant, which is a huge bonus for a Philly defense that was abused by Falcons star receiver Julio Jones Monday night. Bryant has seven TD (most versus any opponent) in eight career meetings with the division rival Eagles, and Terrence Williams will move up to the top receiver spot in his absence. Since Bryant entered the league, the Cowboys are 3-2 in games that he has missed; Bryant has played in every game for Dallas since week two of 2011.

Despite winning the past three matchups in Philly, Romo has struggled against the Eagles in his career. In 17 starts, he is 10-7 against them, but his passer rating of 86.7 is his lowest mark against any NFC opponent. Despite that, Dallas is 3-1 ATS versus Philly in the past two years with the road team winning straight up in all four. However, the last four in Philly have all been decided by double digits.
Philly RB DeMarco Murray struggled mightily in his debut, rushing for nine yards on just eight carries. Murray also had four grabs for 11 yards, giving him a subpar 20 yards from scrimmage on 12 touches.

Although Philly outgained Atlanta 399-395, the Eagles continued to hurt themselves with penalties (10 for 88 yards) and poor third-down execution (3-of-12 on 3rd Downs). The Philadelphia offense averaged 6.8 yards per play after halftime against Atlanta on Monday night following a sluggish first half where the team had the same number of punts (five) as first downs. Oddly enough, the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in road games when allowing 6+ yards per play over the past three seasons.

The two Eagles that had a positive offensive impact were WR Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 102 yards) and Darren Sproles (126 total yards on 12 touches). If you remove those two players, Philly would have just 13 rushing yards left over and 158 of its 336 yards through the air. The remaining offensive plays totaled 171 yards on 30 plays (5.7 yds per play) while Sproles and Matthews moved the ball at over 10.4 yards per play (228 yards, 22 touches).

 

[CNOTES]

Public Fades - Week 2


September 17, 2015


The road favorites dominated last Sunday in the NFL as the Packers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Panthers, and Bengals all picked up victories and covers. Although the Eagles and Vikings faltered on Monday night, road ‘chalk’ still compiled a profitable 5-4 SU/ATS record in Week 1. Will that carry over into Week 2 or will the public get tripped up by trying to ride the road favorite train?


This Sunday, two teams that put together victories in the opening week are listed as away favorites. Arizona and St. Louis are being bet by the public against inferior foes as we’ll isolate on these two squads and whether or not they are solid wagering opportunities in Week 2.


Cardinals (-2, 45) at Bears – 1:00 PM EST


Arizona began the 2014 season at 9-1, which included a 3-1 mark away from University of Phoenix Stadium. However, following Carson Palmer’s ACL tear that ended his season, the Cardinals didn’t fare well on the highway, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in the final five road games, capped off by a playoff defeat at Carolina.


The Cardinals allowed 355 passing yards in last Sunday’s 31-19 victory over the Saints, but Arizona’s defense to limit New Orleans to one touchdown and four field goals and just 54 yards on the ground. The Bears showed some signs of life in a 31-23 loss to the Packers in the opener, leading Green Bay, 13-10 at halftime. However, the Packers outscored the Bears, 21-3 in the second half prior to a late touchdown to send Chicago to its sixth straight loss since last November.


So why back the Bears?


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says there plenty of reasons to fade the Cardinals, “Arizona’s offense looked great last week against a Saints defense that is expected to be one of the worst units in the league, even so Arizona was in a one-point game in the fourth quarter before pulling away late. The highly-regarded Cardinals defense also allowed over 400 yards against a re-tooling Saints offense and the Bears could have the potential to put up good numbers again this week.”


Nelson continues his argument on why to take the Bears, “While Chicago lost a big opening game with Green Bay, the Bears outgained the Packers by 80 yards and rushed the ball with great success, gaining 5.7 yards per carry. Chicago is likely to offer more offensive balance compared with New Orleans and the Cardinals will be a similar favorite on the road this week as they were at home last week despite the Cardinals going 12-29 SU on the road since 2010. Chicago trailed one of the NFC favorites by just a point in the fourth quarter last week as this is a team that has a chance to exceed the gloomy preseason expectations with John Fox and a quality coaching staff getting through to the team and the talent level on offense arguably superior to what Arizona offers.”


According to handicapper Antony Dinero, there were some good things to come out of Sunday’s loss by Chicago, “The Bears didn’t grade out all that great against Green Bay and failed to cover, but Jay Cutler moved the ball effectively in spite of constant pressure. Alshon Jeffery moved around well despite his preseason injury woes, while Matt Forte provided a formidable threat that made it easier for Cutler to get Jeffery and Martellus Bennett the ball since the secondary had to keep an eye on the backfield. With another home game in store, it’s not far-fetched to think some improvement won’t result in Chicago netting a cover against visiting Arizona after flirting with it against the superior rival Packers.”


Rams (-3 ½, 41) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST


St. Louis jumped out to a 24-13 lead over the two-time defending NFC Champion Seahawks in the season opener, but needed a late touchdown to force overtime. Seattle outscored St. Louis, 18-0 in the fourth quarter prior to a Nick Foles touchdown strike to Lance Kendricks to tie the game at 31-31 and put the Rams not only in a position to cover, but also win. The Rams received the opening kickoff in overtime and knocked in the go-ahead field goal, then stuffed the Seahawks on fourth and short to cash as 3 ½-point underdogs in a 34-31 triumph.


The Rams have lost 11 of their last 16 games away from the Edward Jones Dome since 2013, while two of their three road wins last season came at Tampa Bay and Washington. In the 24-0 victory over the Redskins last December, the Rams were aided by a Tavon Austin punt return for a touchdown in an 18-point third quarter. The Rams struggled last season off a win, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in this situation.


So why back the Redskins?


Nelson says in spite of Washington’s loss to Miami last Sunday, there were positives to pull from the defeat, “Washington put up 349 yards and had a massive time-of-possession edge going up against a Miami defense that most expect to be one of the top units in the league. Quarterback play will be a concern for the Redskins all season and Kirk Cousins did have two interceptions last week but Alfred Morris had a great day on the ground and Washington still possesses a decent receiving corps even without DeSean Jackson. The Redskins led Miami into the fourth quarter and if not for allowing a punt return touchdown in the fourth Washington would have had a good chance to win.”


Handicapper Vince Akins digs deep into his historical vault and provides more evidence to fade the Rams in Week 2, “We are wary of all non-elite road favorites, particularly in the early in the season, but it is losing teams in this spot in the first month of the season that give particular cause for concern. As it happens, there is solid early season system to back that up.”


“Play against an away favorite that won less than eight games last season in the first four weeks of the season. These auspicious road favorites are just 41-54-3 ATS (43.2%) over the past 25 years and it has been a particularly ugly 8-17 ATS since 2010. Despite mustering up just six wins last season and a track record of middling success is going on over a decade, St. Louis has been elevated to road favorite status in Week 2. Be cautious on the Rams,” says Akins.

 

[CNOTES]

Texans to start Mallett against Panthers


September 17, 2015


HOUSTON (AP) Houston coach Bill O'Brien says quarterback Ryan Mallett will start for the Texans on Sunday at Carolina.


O'Brien had said earlier in the week that he wouldn't announce a decision until game time. But after the news got out on Wednesday, O'Brien decided to make it official on Thursday.


Brian Hoyer beat Mallett for the job in camp. But Hoyer was benched in the fourth quarter of Houston's season-opening loss to the Chiefs after committing two turnovers. Mallett led Houston on two scoring drives in the final six minutes of 27-20 loss.


Also on Thursday, injured running back Arian Foster returned to practice for the first time since groin surgery. But it's unclear when he'll be ready to play.

 

[CNOTES]

Sore hammy won't keep Julio Jones out


September 17, 2015


FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) Julio Jones vows his sore right hamstring is no cause for alarm.


The two-time Atlanta Pro Bowl receiver missed practice Thursday for the second straight day, but promises to be in the starting lineup when the Falcons (1-0) visit the New York Giants (0-1).


Coach Dan Quinn added there's ''zero'' chance Jones will miss the game.


That's good news for the Falcons.


Jones, who caught nine passes for 141 yards and two first-half touchdowns against Philadelphia, is one of the NFL's elite players at his position.


After tweaking the hamstring, Jones' snaps were limited in the second half, but he still caught a 44-yard pass - the game's longest play - to set up the winning field goal.


''By me being able to go back out there, it wasn't that serious,'' Jones said. ''It's just precautionary. I'm going be ready to go.''


The Giants are coming off a last-minute loss at Dallas after they allowed 72 yards on six passes on the winning drive.


As Philadelphia's cornerbacks found out last week, cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara might have some difficult matchups against Jones.


At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, he has the size and strength to run through jams at the line of scrimmage, and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has designed plays that line up Jones at both outside receiver spots and in the slot. He also occasionally goes in motion before the snap.


''It helps us out that they don't know where I'm going to line up at,'' Jones said. ''Kyle does a great job with that and making sure everyone knows the offense so he can move us around. ''


Jones, who ranked among the league's top three receivers last year in catches and yards receiving, has embraced having more versatility than he had under former coordinator Dirk Koetter.


It was something he had to earn during the offseason, but the farther he advanced, the more Quinn, a first-year head coach, talked about expanding his role in Shanahan's scheme.


''For him, when you're a great player, you're great all the time,'' Quinn said. ''So he goes to another (level) in saying, `I'm ready to work and do the things that I have to do.' Tons of respect for him and how he approaches the game.''


Jones is going about his business this year in the same soft-spoken manner he's used since Atlanta drafted him No. 6 overall from Alabama in 2011.


Owner Arthur Blank has been so impressed with his performance on and off the field that he re-signed Jones to a new five-year contract last month that guaranteed $47.5 million and made him one of the game's highest-paid players.


''I just want to be the best teammate,'' Jones said. ''I hate to let someone down and have myself (underperform) if I'm not getting the proper sleep, if I'm not eating right or I'm not studying. So I do all that to the best of my ability. Then when it's show time, I just go out there and play.''


Notes: WR Devin Hester (toe), OLB Brooks Reed (groin), SS William Moore (illness) and DE Malliciah Goodman (elbow) missed practice. OLB O'Brien Schofield (hip) was a limited participant. LT Jake Matthews (back) and DE Adrian Clayborn (thumb) were full participants.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 2


September 18, 2015


A lot has changed since April when CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas first posted Week 2 of the NFL. Between a combination of injuries, preseason play and one regular season game, several teams have had their ratings massively adjusted -- some higher and lower. You've also got to factor in the books not faring well last Sunday, so a couple of teams books know that are going to get lots of love might be favored too much this week and a couple of teams the public hates is going to get extreme value, or at least a few more points.


Let's take the Buccaneers, for example, for its road game at New Orleans. CG Tech posted the Saints as 6.5-point favorites for this game back in April. The combination of seeing rookie QB Jameis Winston routinely finding trouble -- just like most first halves at Florida State last season -- which led to a 42-14 drubbing last week at the hands of the Titans and their rookie QB. The Saints didn't look all that great in their Week 1 opening loss at Arizona, but the Bucs dropoff in perception and rating forced CG to re-open the Saints -10 on Sunday night.


Is that a proper adjustment? Do we all really think we got Winston figured out? We've really got the book on him and we've come to the conclusion after one week that it's going to be a long year for him and Tampa Bay? Whatever reality might be, it's the public that tells us the answer. And with the way they're betting the game, they're saying -10 is just fine. Sharp money may disagree on game day. The Westgate SuperBook and Wynn are both dealing -9.5 while everyone else is using -10.


A situation where a team may have been upgraded way too high after one week of play is another team led with a rookie QB -- the Titans and Marcus Mariota. Were the Bucs that bad last week or was Mariota so sensational that he's worth a 5.5-point swing?


CG books opened the Browns as 4.5-point home favorites against the Titans in April. This week they re-opened the Titans at -1. Sure, the Browns offense struggled at the Jets last week, but is one week enough time to really properly gauge the ratings of both Cleveland and Tennessee?


Is Johnny Manziel really that big of a drop off from Josh McCown? Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Manziel starting is a 2-point drop off. Sounds high, but even then -- if McCown was starting -- it would be Cleveland -1 which is still a significant jump from where the number started. The Westgate SuperBook and William Hill books have Tennessee -1.5 while Wynn is at Pick 'em.


Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says the Titans are one of four top public plays this week, along with the Patriots (-1 at Buffalo), Rams (-3.5 at Washington) and Dolphins. Station books are outstanding barometers for what the public is thinking because they write more parlay action than anyone in the state.


McCormick says his sharp plays so far have been on the Bears (+1.5 vs Cardinals) and Lions (+3 at Minnesota). The Lions are now as low as -2 at a few books while Stations is at -2.5. CG Tech had the game Pick 'em back in April.


Let's take a look at where CG Tech books started in April and where they are now. Some of the moves have been made by action, but most of the movement has come from weekly adjustments to each teams' individual rating, movement that really took shape during preseason and then jumped even more after Week 1.


Houston at Carolina: Opened CAR -2.5, now it's -3.
Tampa Bat at New Orleans: NO opened -6.5, now -10.
Miami at Jacksonville: MIA opened -4, now -6.
Baltimore at Oakland: BAL open -5, now -6.
New England at Buffalo: NE opened -1, still the same.
San Diego at Cincinnati: CIN open -3, still the same (CIN -6.5 in 2014 wild card loss to SD)
Tennessee at Cleveland: CLEV open -4.5, TENN now -1
San Francisco at Pittsburgh: PITT open -2.5, now -6.
Atlanta at NY Giants: NYG open -3.5, now it's -2.5.
Dallas at Philadelphia: PHIL -2, now -5.
St. Louis at Washington: STL -2, now it's -3.5 EV.
Arizona at Chicago: AZ open -1, now -2.
Seattle at Green Bay: GB open -1, now -3.5.
Detroit at Minnesota: Opened Pick 'em, now MINN -2.5.
NY Jets at Indianapolis: IND open -7.5, now -7 EV.


You be the judge of where the value rests and if the latest adjustments after one week of play are too much. Whatever plan you roll with -- the quick change or steady conservative approach with each team rating -- good luck with your wagers. There's plenty of value with all the games no matter how you look at it.