Cnotes National Football Leagues Trends-News- Picks !!

[CNOTES]

Meet VI Expert CH Ballers


September 8, 2015




VegasInsider.com is proud to introduce CH Ballers to the pro football handicapping roster.


The handicapping team burst onto the sports betting scene last year as they captured the SuperContest, which is widely known as the most prestigious pro football handicapping contest.


Not only did CH Ballers win the event at the Westgate Las Vegas Casino SuperBook, they blew away the record field of 1,403 particpants with a 64-20-1 record (76%).


Fortunately for VegasInsider.com users, CH Ballers will be providing their expert selections and in-depth analysis for the NFL regular season.


With the NFL regular season kicking off this weekend, VI had a quick back and forth with last year’s winners of the SuperContest.


How did the group CH Ballers form?
CH: Three of us have been playing (and betting on in some shape or form) football together for over 15 years…the fourth joined us after college. We started getting serious about a year ago when we decided to officially enter the SuperContest for the first time. It took a couple of weeks to perfect our system, but after that it has been so far so good.

What made you participate in the SuperContest?
CH: It has always been something we had followed and looked up to as a “World Series of gambling” type event. Finally one of the Ballers said hey, we can’t win if we don’t give it a shot, so we put up the entry fee and the rest is history…

How surprised were you with your success in last year’s SuperContest?
CH: It is something we have always followed as experienced gamblers, so having a winning record halfway through the season was not surprising to us. That said, as the season went on and we continued to have winning weeks (with multiple 5-0 runs) it started to get a little exciting. When we went on to win what we consider to be a “world series” event and to have done it in our first year of competing while setting an all-time win % record is definitely something that came as a bit of a surprise…Obviously it is something that we are all very proud of and have dedicated ourselves to trying to repeat.

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Do you believe you can show consistent winning records over multiple seasons?
CH: While we hope to keep setting records, we realize that beating last year’s performance will be nothing short of incredible. That said, we think we have an efficient and successful system that we can replicate to produce a competitive win record.

After receiving national attention for winning the SuperContest with a record-breaking performance, what’s your overall take on the sports betting industry?
CH: Generally we have found that most people have been warm and welcoming…after some of the news coverage we started receiving phone calls and emails from people who wanted to take us out to dinner because they had made so much money following our picks throughout the season. That came as somewhat of a surprise and is what inspired us to start publishing our picks.

Are you feeling any pressure this season?
CH: A little, but we love the pressure…it keeps us focused.

What’s your handicapping approach?
CH: We look at a lot of data (historical results, matchups, ratings, line moves, etc.) but we wouldn’t say that we have a particular approach…one of our secrets is not getting caught up in groupthink and being able to analyze the contrarian view.

How did you decide what were the selections each week for the SuperContest with four individuals? Did you review plays that were “on the cusp” for the previous week?
CH: It took a couple of weeks to perfect our system, but we each submitted our top picks via email and then got on the phone to review and hash out what our top 5 were.

What’s the most difficult part of handicapping as a group? Easiest?
CH: It’s great when we all see a particular game the same way (and it makes for an easy discussion), but the hardest (and actually most important in our opinion) is when we take opposing sides of a play…the ability to see a given game from a different perspective and have a “voice of reason” to tell you to stay away is always a great asset.

What do you believe is the hardest part about handicapping the NFL? Easiest?
CH: It’s gotten a lot more complicated…now we have to think about things like football pressure and concussions…generally the toughest part is accounting for what can happen in garbage time at the end of a game.

Was there one individual that had more losses than the rest? Did you razz him…?
CH: There was plenty of healthy conversation along the way, but all final picks were made as a team.

What can users expect from CH Ballers this season?
CH: A dedicated team that will continue to hash out the details and continue to pick NFL winners .

Do you plan to offer more than just 5 SuperContest picks each week?
CH: Of course…we will share as many picks as we can assuming we feel comfortable about taking a side (including non-contest options like O/U).

When did your group start handicapping for the upcoming season?
CH: Right after the NFL draft concluded.

Do you handicap any other sports besides the NFL?
CH: College Football (although not as frequently).

 

[CNOTES]

Trends To Watch - September


September 9, 2015




The pig is finally in the air.

That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘players’ alike.

Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”

Play accordingly.

HOME TEAMS


Keep an eye on (Good):


Detroit has been notorious fast starters for years and is 29-16 ATS on a field where Eminem calls home. The lone home game will not be easy, facing Denver.

Baltimore is still a respectable 28-16 ATS at home, but is not as strong under coach John Harbaugh. Let's see if they flex their muscles against Cincinnati on the 27th of the month.

Keep an eye on (Bad):


Arizona is just 14-23 ATS in the desert this month and has home games against New Orleans in Week 1 and San Francisco in Week 3. Definitely worth watching.


The New York Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick as their signal caller for now. Cleveland is in New Jersey for the season lid-lifter and Philadelphia two weeks later as the Flyboys try and improve on 18-28 ATS mark the first month of the season at home.

Cincinnati is a miserable 15-25 ATS this month and probably fortunately just has San Diego in Week 2 on the banks of the Ohio River.

Washington has been laboring at home for years and is 16-27 ATS before the home crowd. Having Miami and St. Louis the first two weeks, we will find out quickly if Robert Griffin III is really is among the best quarterbacks in the NFL as he recently proclaimed, or whether Kirk Cousins is really the answer.

AWAY TEAMS


Keep an eye on (Good):


Kansas City is money on the road to begin the season at 30-17 ATS and has two chances to better that record: In the opener at Houston and the Week 3 Monday nighter at Lambeau.


Dallas was 8-0 and 7-1 ATS last season in away outings, which helped build a recent 29-16 ATS mark. That makes the Week 2 battle at Philly worth waiting for.


Keep an eye on (Bad):


It has never made sense why a franchise as consistently good as Pittsburgh struggles early on the road and is a dismal 15-29 ATS. They might catch a bit of a break being in New England for Game 1 of the season. Seventeen days later they will be in St. Louis.

Speaking of the Rams, they are only marginally better at 15-28 ATS, but found a home team as bad as they are in Washington, leaving football bettors to choose the lesser of two evils.

FAVORITES


Keep an eye on (Good):


Seattle is a rock solid 29-16 ATS favorite, however, like usual will be tested at St. Louis in the opener. Two weeks later they will likely have an easier time facing Jay Cutler and the Bears.


Bad:


With the Cardinals a lousy home team, it stands to reason they would be a mediocre favorite. At 7-18 ATS in September, this is as bad as it gets, so let's see of the Saints and Niners can expose them again as frauds in that role.

If you have too much money, we have a perfect solution... bet Carolina as favorites this month. The Panthers are 8-18 and should be favored in all three games in September!

St. Louis fits the bill also at 12-25 ATS, however, we know they will not be a favorite against Seattle in the first contest and chances are will not being handing out points at the Redskins or home to Pittsburgh. Watch the numbers and keep this in mind.


UNDERDOGS


Good:


The Dallas Cowboys thrive in this role at a sensational 26-12 against the number. Their Week 2 showdown at Philly will be their lone chance to improve on record.

Keep an eye on (Good):


With road games at Houston and Green Bay, Kansas City will be an underdog and seeking to improve on 27-17 ATS. In between those contests is a home date with rival Denver and based on the past two years in this matchup at Arrowhead, the Chiefs might actually not be favored until their fifth contest.


Bad:


We already mentioned the Steelers slow starts and they are 10-21 ATS when catching points this month. They are underdogs at New England, with a Week 3 nonconference clash at St. Louis to be determined later.


DIVISION


Good:


The Chiefs home opener will on Thursday night against Denver on the 17th and K.C. is a dandy 23-11 ATS in that role.


Keep an eye on (Bad):


With New England's quarterback situation temporarily settled with Tom Brady back, we’ll see whether the added weight and the bull eye of being defending Super Bowl champs weighs on the Pats disappointing 16-24 ATS vs. the AFC East.

Cincinnati is a fairly disheartening 13-20 ATS against the AFC North early on, and its first division confrontation of 2015 will be at Baltimore.

I’ll be back next month with our review of NFL trends for October.


Good luck this month.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 10

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PITTSBURGH (11 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (15 - 4) - 9/10/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 167-128 ATS (+26.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 13

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GREEN BAY (13 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 11) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (9 - 7) at HOUSTON (9 - 7) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (7 - 9) at NY JETS (4 - 12) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 6) at BUFFALO (9 - 7) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (8 - 8) at WASHINGTON (4 - 12) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-104 ATS (-40.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-104 ATS (-40.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-104 ATS (-40.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (8 - 9 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 13) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (14 - 5) at ST LOUIS (6 - 10) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 143-180 ATS (-55.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 143-180 ATS (-55.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 102-142 ATS (-54.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) at ARIZONA (11 - 6) - 9/13/2015, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (11 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (9 - 7) - 9/13/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 77-104 ATS (-37.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 77-104 ATS (-37.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (2 - 14) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 14) - 9/13/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (10 - 6 - 1) at OAKLAND (3 - 13) - 9/13/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-71 ATS (-41.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (11 - 7) at DENVER (12 - 5) - 9/13/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (6 - 10) at DALLAS (13 - 5) - 9/13/2015, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 14

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PHILADELPHIA (10 - 6) at ATLANTA (6 - 10) - 9/14/2015, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (7 - 9) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 8) - 9/14/2015, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thursday - Sept, 10

Pittsburgh at New England, 8:30 EST
Pittsburgh: 1-7 ATS in September games
New England: 167-128 ATS against conference opponents


Sunday - Sept, 13

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
Chicago: 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season

Kansas City at Houston, 1:00 EST
Kansas City: 94-68 ATS in the first half of the season
Houston: 44-24 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3

Cleveland at New York Jets, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 70-42 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3
NY Jets: 37-46 ATS in the first month of the season

Indianapolis at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Indianapolis: 25-11 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Buffalo: 10-2 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Miami at Washington, 1:00 EST
Miami: 210-164 UNDER in all lined games
Washington: 7-18 ATS as an underdog

Carolina at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 84-59 UNDER as a favorite
Jacksonville: 0-8 ATS in September games

Seattle at ST Louis, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 20-8 ATS against conference opponents
ST Louis: 102-142 ATS against conference opponents

New Orleans at Arizona, 4:05 EST
New Orleans: 11-3 UNDER in road games against conference opponents
Arizona: 10-3 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

Detroit at San Diego, 4:05 EST
Detroit: 77-104 ATS in road lined games
San Diego: 7-0 ATS in the first month of the season

Tennessee at Tampa Bay, 4:25 EST
Tennessee: 42-24 ATS in non-conference games
Tampa Bay: 2-10 ATS against AFC South division opponents

Cincinnati at Oakland, 4:25 EST
Cincinnati: 8-1 UNDER in road lined games
Oakland: 8-20 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Baltimore at Denver, 4:25 EST
Baltimore: 40-30 ATS in the first month of the season
Denver: 155-102 OVER as a favorite

New York Giants at Dallas, 8:30 EST
NY Giants: 31-14 UNDER on road where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Dallas: 12-4 ATS in the first half of the season


Monday - Sept, 14

Philadelphia at Atlanta, 7:10 EST
Philadelphia: 15-5 ATS in road games when playing on Monday night
Atlanta: 4-10 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

Minnesota at San Francisco, 10:20 EST
Minnesota: 23-39 ATS as a road favorite
San Francisco: 29-10 ATS when playing on Monday night

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 10

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England's last 15 games at home


Sunday, September 13

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games at home

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. BUFFALO
Indianapolis is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Indianapolis is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home
Jacksonville is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. NY JETS
Cleveland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Seattle

4:05 PM
DETROIT vs. SAN DIEGO
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 gamesThe total has gone UNDER in 12 of Detroit's last 16 games
San Diego is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ARIZONA
New Orleans is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New Orleans

4:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
Oakland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

4:25 PM
TENNESSEE vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at homeTampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Denver
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Denver is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Denver is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants


Monday, September 14

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

10:20 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Minnesota is 2-14-1 SU in its last 17 games ,on the road
Minnesota is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Thursday, September 10


Steelers @ Patriots-- Pats are 5-0-1 vs spread as favorite of less than 9 points in their home opener; since '07, they're 23-14-1 as non-divisional home faves, 16-8 vs spread in last 24 games where spread was 3 or less points. Steelers lost last four road openers, all by 10+ points. Pats won five of last seven games with Pitt; average total in last nine series games is 54.7. Since '97, Steelers are 1-8 as an underdog in its road openers. Over is 28-12 in Patriot home games the last five years. Since '02, defending Super Bowl champ is 8-3-2 vs spread in next season's opener. Dick LeBeau was forced out as Steelers' DC; lot of changes in the Pittsburgh defense. Change isn't always good.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: Broncos open -4 vs. Ravens


Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have won 83 percent of their home games straight-up.


When federal judge Richard Berman overturned Tom Brady’s four-game suspension last week, it was the metaphorical shot heard ‘round the world. And it was particularly loud and clear in Las Vegas, where the line on Thursday night’s Pittsburgh Steelers-New England Patriots game jumped by as much as a touchdown at some sportsbooks.


Yes, the defending Super Bowl champions will have their superstar quarterback under center when the 2015 season opens. And in the wake of the ruling that cleared Brady’s way, Patriots money flooded the books – rightly so, according to Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas.


“I don’t put the opening-week NFL lines up until the preseason is over, and this game in particular plays into the reasons why,” said Avello, who now has the Patriots (15-4 SU, 11-8 ATS in 2014) as 7-point favorites. “Tom Brady is worth approximately 6 to 7 points, and now that I know he’s in, a full touchdown is a good starting point for betting purposes. Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have won 83 percent of their home games straight-up, and bettors will need to decide if the 7 points will come into play in this excellent NFL opener.


At offshore site bookmaker.ag, John Lester said his operation played it close to the vest while the Brady case made its way through the legal process.


“Obviously, this line has been all over the place due to the Deflategate saga, but we protected ourselves a bit by pulling it during most of camp and the preseason,” said Lester, who also had the Pats at -7. “I feel that the Steelers are a tad overhyped heading into this season, and not having LeVeon Bell (suspension) in this one will hurt. The Pats are perennially slow starters, but more often than not, when drama surrounds them, they use it as motivation. “


Along with Bell’s two-game suspension, Avello also cautioned bettors on the Steelers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS in 2014) being without center Maurkice Pouncey, who is expected to miss 10 weeks with a broken leg.


Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4)


Two of the last three AFC champions collide in this Sunday matchup, with both teams holding high hopes for the 2015 season. And as much as two perennial playoff contenders can, Lester says the Ravens (11-7 SU, 9-8-1 ATS in 2014) and Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) are perhaps a little overlooked, and he likes the visitor in this contest.


“Here we have two very good teams that seem to be flying under the radar a bit, Baltimore more so than Denver,” Lester said. “I expect our sharper clients will let the public drive this spread up even further than it’s moved thus far, and then take a shot with the Ravens. They are very live dogs, in my opinion.”


Avello expects a good game but seems to have a bit more faith in Denver.


“The Broncos have only two home losses in the last three years and therefore one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL,” he said. “They may not be as strong offensively as they have been in the past, but may have their best defense during Manning’s tenure in Denver.


“The Ravens always put a quality team on the field but have traditionally been slow starters.”


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5)


Bettors get a clash of NFC East rivals right out of the gate, and in the Sunday night prime-time spotlight, no less. New York was a dismal 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS last year, while Dallas reached the second round of the playoffs in going 13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS. Avello expects more Cowboys money on this game in the coming days.


“New York Giants fans like myself haven’t had a lot to root for the past two years, and this season, at least on paper, doesn’t look that promising. Eli Manning has been inconsistent over that time period, and the offensive line probably plays a big part in that,” Avello said. “The Cowboys, who are coming off their best season in a decade, should compete for at least the division title. They’ve beaten the Giants four straight, and I expect the money will show up on them come Sunday night.”


Lester, who pegged the Cowboys a 6-point chalk, echoed Avello’s sentiments


“Some people believe in the Giants this year, but I am not one of them. The defense is a glaring concern,” he said. “This number seems about right, and the minimal line movement over the last couple of months has supported that. The Cowboys are the most public team we have.”


Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams


The Seahawks (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS in 2014) have been to the past two Super Bowls, and if not for a horrible play call, they’d be the two-time defending champions. But they start the season with an NFC West road game against what is expected to be an improved Rams squad (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2014).
That said, Lester still finds the number curiously low.


“Bettors who have any sense are going to look at this line and see that it reeks of fish stench,” Lester said. “St. Louis usually plays Seattle tough (3-0 ATS last three at home), and Rams coach Jeff Fisher should be preaching to his players that this is a statement game to start the season. The squares will be all over Seattle at this short price.”


Avello, who put Seattle at -4, also expects the Fisher-led rams to make this interesting.


“St Louis stayed competitive in 2013 and ‘14 after losing quarterback Sam Bradford, and I attribute much of that to Coach Fisher, because I believe he’s one of the best in the league,” Avello said. “In the last three meetings at St Louis, the Rams have won twice and lost the third by five points, so going to Missouri hasn’t been a cakewalk for the Seahawks.


“Seattle will certainly be in the hunt to win it all again, but we’re talking Game No. 1 of the season here.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Line Watch: Don't wait for Colts to become field goal faves


Spread to bet now


Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)


The Bills apparently are going to be the first team in NFL history to try to win a game without a quarterback, going with Tyrod Taylor and basically telling the world that Buffalo will be running the ball 70 percent of the time and hoping its defense gets it done. It’s no surprise, then, that they are home dogs in the opener.


The Colt defense hasn’t undergone a major upgrade and was merely mediocre last season, but it won’t have to be overpowering in this one. Assuming even an average effort from Indianapolis’ offense, the Colts should be able to cover 2.5. Good idea to get in before it becomes a field-goal line.


Spread to wait on


Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)


The line in this one has bounced around from a pick ‘em to Philadelphia -3, depending on where you shop, and the feeling is that it will not go off at 2.5 on the early Monday night kickoff. Atlanta basically devoted its draft to defense after several dreadful performances last season, but the upgrades may need a month or more to get comfortable.


The Falcons also have a new coaching staff, which was mandated after the team lost 22 of its last 32 games. In Philadelphia, Chip Kelly is constantly adapting and not afraid to trade away stars. He now has a new QB (Sam Bradford) running the show as last year’s starter, Mark Sanchez, is relegated to No. 2.


Total to watch


Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (52)


The angry Patriots waged war on the NFL in the wake of SpyGate in 2007, running up a total of 589 points against 16 befuddled opponents as oddsmakers struggled to produce totals high enough. Could it happen again post-Deflategate?


There may be high numbers again, but it might not be the result of a Patriots offense that enters the year banged up at the WR position. New England’s defense appears back in bend-don’t-break mode after letting most of its 2014 secondary walk away, and there are questions whether at 37 years old, Tom Brady can again make up for it on the other end. Both the Steelers and Pats were OK (9-7) teams at playing Over the total last year.

 

[CNOTES]

Coleman opens season as Falcons' starting running back


FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- As the offseason progressed, it was clear the Atlanta Falcons would be making a change at running back.


Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers and Antone Smith did not return after the 2014 season.


Devonta Freeman, a fourth-round pick last season, returned while Tevin Coleman was selected in the third round of the this year's draft.


When the Falcons host the Philadelphia Eagles Monday night, Coleman will get the starting nod with Freeman recovering from a hamstring injury.


Head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday, "That's (how) we'll start off. We are still working through some of the things. But (Coleman) is how we'll start it off."


Coleman averaged 142.6 rushing yards per game over the final 21 games of his college career at Indiana. He owns the school's single-season rushing record with 2,036 yards, which he set last season, and he set the mark while going for 228 yards against eventual national champion Ohio State.


The Falcons hope Coleman can add pop to their attack.


With Freeman potentially sidelined, undrafted rookie free agent Terron Ward is in line to be Coleman's backup. Ward is the younger brother of Denver safety T.J. Ward.


Said Quinn, "I think the combination as a protector and as a runner (was impressive). The detail that he went for on special teams, to really go for it, just jumped out at us right away."


Notes: Left guard Andy Levitre, who was acquired in a trade from Tennessee, restructured his contract to lower his base salary to $1.5 million, down from $6.5 million. The Falcons made up the difference with a $5 million signing bonus, which gave him a new salary-cap number of $2.875 million. He was set to receive $27.3 million on the original six-year, $46.8 million deal he signed with Tennessee as a free agent after spending four seasons in Buffalo. ... Tight end Jacob Tamme, who suffered a back injury in the preseason finale, has been cleared to play and is expected to start against the Eagles.


Free safety Robenson Therezie, an undrafted rookie from Auburn, was a utility player in college and played several positions. The Falcons decided he was best as a free safety. "We saw the big jump when we got to camp," Quinn said. "He was one that totally made the jump at free safety. Is he a corner? Is he a nickel? Or is he safety? It became really clear that he could be best featured at free safety."

 

[CNOTES]

Patriots make roster moves before opener


The New England Patriots signed defensive back Justin Coleman to the 53-man roster from the Seattle Seahawks' practice squad and placed offensive lineman Bryan Stork on injured reserve on the eve of their season opener.


The Patriots also signed linebacker Alex Singleton to the practice squad and released offensive lineman Chris Barker from the practice squad on Wednesday.


Coleman, a 22-year-old rookie free agent, was released by the Minnesota Vikings on Aug. 30, signed by the Patriots on Sept. 4 and released a day later, and then signed by the Seahawks for their practice squad on Sept. 8.


Singleton, also a rookie free agent, was released by the Seahawks on Sept. 5.


Barker originally was claimed off waivers by the Patriots from the Miami Dolphins.


He played in four games for the Patriots as a rookie in 2013 and spent most of last season on the Patriots' practice squad. He was released by the team on Sept. 1 and signed to the practice squad on Sept. 8.


The Patriots open the regular season on Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

 

[CNOTES]

B]Albert will start for Dolphins at left tackle[/B]


DAVIE, Fla. - The prospects for the Miami Dolphins on the offensive line got a lot better Wednesday when it was revealed that Branden Albert will start at left tackle in Sunday's season opener at Washington.


A Pro-Bowl selection in 2013, Albert broke the news first Wednesday in the locker room, and head coach Joe Philbin later confirmed it. Albert, who tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in November, is among Miami's best players, regardless of position, and should help the offensive line greatly.


It was unknown prior to Wednesday whether a knee injury would keep him from playing against the Redskins.


The news on Albert wasn't the only change on the line. Right guard Jamil Douglas will start the opener at Washington, which is somewhat of a surprise considering Billy Turner held that job for almost all of training camp and preseason.


Douglas, the rookie fourth-round pick from Arizona State, spent a lot of time with the first team in the preseason finale against Tampa Bay and that performance, coupled with a few penalties by Turner in the preseason, might have sealed the deal.


Notes: Cornerback Brice McCain will start on the right side, opposite Brent Grimes, in the opener at Washington. McCain, who is likely to move to the slot in the nickel package, was battling Jamar Taylor for the starting job but it appeared Taylor had locked it up until sustaining a thigh injury late in preseason. Taylor was limited in Wednesday's practice. his role remains unclear because he won't start in the regular defense. There's a good chance Taylor plays boundary cornerback in the nickel defense with Brice McCain moving inside to the slot.


Left tackle Jason Fox (concussion) didn't practice Wednesday, meaning he's practiced once in the last two weeks. Fox was the starter for most of training camp and preseason while Albert recovered from his knee injury. ... Wide receiver DeVante Parker (foot) had full participation in Wednesday's practice and seems ready to play in Sunday's opener. Parker, the first-round pick from Louisville, missed all of training camp and preseason except for the finale against Tampa Bay recovering from offseason surgery. Wide receiver Kenny Stills, who missed most of training camp and preseason with a calf injury, will start in Sunday's opener at Washington ahead of Rishard Matthews, who seemed to have an outstanding training camp and preseason.

 

[CNOTES]

Lawmakers stand up for cheerleaders


Give me an M-I-N-I-M-U-M-W-A-G-E.


That is the cry from 19 lawmakers on behalf of cheerleaders for NFL teams. The cheerleaders are currently considered independent contractors, which exempts them from minimum-wage laws.


The story was first reported Wednesday by Buzzfeed.


The lawmakers sent a letter to NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, laying out "abuses" against cheerleaders including failure to receive pay in a timely manner, unreimbursed expenses and illegal deductions from earnings for minor infractions.


"It is outrageous the conditions that these young women are being forced to work in," New York state Sen. Diane Savino (D-Staten Island) told the New York Daily News.


Queens (N.Y.) Assemblywoman Nily Rozic told the Daily News, "It shouldn't take lawsuits and legislation to get the NFL to do the right thing."


According to SI.com, cheerleaders for the Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals filed wage lawsuits in the past year. A California law passed this summer designates professional sports team cheerleaders as employees.

 

[CNOTES]

Insane NFL Week 1 betting trend involving Super Bowl teams


One glaring NFL Week 1 football betting trend that has shown up since the turn of the century has to do with teams coming off an appearance in the Super Bowl the year before.


Defending Super Bowl champs have ridden that wave of momentum to a stellar 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS record in Week 1 the following season since 2000, most recently the Seattle Seahawks beating the Green Bay Packers 36-16 as 4.5-point favorites in a Thursday night opener last September.


The team that lost in the Big Game isn’t so lucky. Apparently, getting over that crushing defeat takes more than an offseason, with Super Bowl losers going 6-9 SU and only 3-12 ATS the last 15 seasons. The Denver Broncos, who were blown out by Seattle in Super Bowl XLVIII, defeated the Indianapolis Colts 31-24 in Week 1 but couldn’t cover the 8-point spread.


That puts the spotlight on the defending champion New England Patriots and Seahawks in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. The Patriots are 7-point favorites hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday night, but were down to -2.5 when it was thought Tom Brady would be suspended for the first four games of the year. Seattle is currently a 4-point road favorite visiting the St. Louis Rams Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis - Prob Sun


Hilton will likely play Sunday against the Bills after recovering from a concussion.


-----------------


Todd Gurley, St. Louis - Out Sun


Gurley is recovering well from knee surgery but will not play Sunday against the Seahawks.


---------------------------




Carroll on Seahawks holdout Chancellor: 'He's not playing'


With Kam Chancellor still holding out from the Seattle Seahawks, coach Pete Carroll ruled the safety out of the team's season opener.


"He's not here so he's not playing. That's it," Carroll said at practice Wednesday.


Cornerback Richard Sherman said, according to Sports Radio KJR, "Everybody's disappointed. You expect to have him."


Sherman added that he doesn't know when Chancellor might rejoin the Seahawks but that his teammates understand his position.


NFL Network's Albert Breer reported that Chancellor could become the first player to have a holdout drag into the regular season under the current collective bargaining agreement -- not including quarterback Carson Palmer, who "retired" before he was traded to the Oakland Raiders.


Chancellor's current contract runs through the 2017 season and is set to pay him $4.55 million this year. However, Chancellor already faces fines of more than $1.5 million for the holdout.


Chancellor, 27, was Seattle's fifth-round draft pick out of Virginia Tech in 2010. After playing every game as a reserve during his rookie season, he started all but three games over the next four years, making the Pro Bowl three times.


The Seahawks open the season Sunday in St. Louis against the Rams.

 

[CNOTES]

TNF - Steelers at Patriots


September 9, 2015




Although there were times this summer where it looked impossible, Tom Brady will lead his New England Patriots out of the huddle on their first offensive possession when the NFL regular season opens on Thursday night.


The defending champs are a seven-point favorite at most books, while the projected total hovers around 52. The announcement that Brady’s suspension had been revoked by a New York federal judge last week saw this spread jump from New England laying a field goal at home to a full touchdown or more.


“Deflategate,” amusing diversion for the insane and annoying distraction to everyone else, still has at least one more chapter left. Fortunately, what’s left to be written no longer ominously hangs above the 2015 opener like a dark cloud. Regardless of whether you believe the Patriots have been unjustly persecuted or just got away with their latest crime of the century, it’s undeniable that the judicial decision to revoke Brady’s four-game suspension makes for a much better show.


This pairing, which could very well repeat itself in late January as the AFC Championship, already lost some of its luster with Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell serving the first of a two-game suspension. Instead of second-year pro Jimmy Garoppolo taking snaps, Brady will duel with Ben Roethlisberger in a matchup of two of the game’s best passers. The showdown salvages a season opener that was headed down the road where we’d all be preoccupied by the missing, lamenting what should have been.


For the Patriots, the band is back together, albeit missing a few pieces. Deep threat Brandon LaFell opens the season on the PUP list, sidelined at least the first six games with a foot injury. RB LeGarrette Blount will serve a one-game suspension for a substance-abuse violation, but both are replaceable.


Tight end Rob Gronkowski, among the NFL’s most unique and explosive offensive weapons, is 100 percent after missing the entire preseason to stay fresh. Julian Edelman, banged up early last month and throughout training camp, is ready to go as Brady’s No. 1 receiver. There are new toys like 6-foot-7 tight end Scott Chandler and undrafted rookie Chris Harper, who could also be asked to make an impact in the return game. Veteran Danny Amendola, in addition to young options Matthew Slater and Aaron Dobson, give the Patriots plenty of threats.


New England’s most significant injury concern, center Bryan Stork, remains mired in the NFL’s concussion protocol and may not play after missing three consecutive practices entering Wednesday. The Patriots are 13-3 in his starts when you include the postseason. If he can’t go, veteran Ryan Wendell, still working his way back from offseason shoulder surgery, would be an option to step in. Undrafted rookie David Andrews out of Georgia would be another way to go. Neither is likely to be as effective Stork, who won a national title at Florida State and a Super Bowl in a 13-month span in addition to a Rimington Trophy as the nation’s top college center while snapping to redshirt freshman Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston.


Compounding his potential absence is the fact Brady will be getting a look at the first Steelers defense to be run by someone other than Dick LeBeau in 11 years. The veteran coordinator is in Tennessee now, giving way to protégé Keith Butler, the team’s long-time linebackers coach. Since he may have a wrinkle or three in place, Brady will have to be wary as a guinea pig of sorts given how little Pittsburgh gave away in the preseason in terms of blitz packages and disguised coverages. This defense will be hungry to establish a new identity given the retirement of long-time mainstays Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Jason Worilds. Young playmakers Ryan Shazier, Cam Heyward and Bud Dupree will be tasked with making contributions on the road at Gillette Stadium.


The Patriots have won eight of the last 11 meetings between these teams, including five of the last seven over the last decade. Roethlisberger won the first head-to-head meeting with Brady in 2004, snapping the Patriots amazing 21-game winning streak. The Steelers went 15-1 that year, but lost the AFC Championship at home to New England, which went on to win another Super Bowl.


These teams go way back. Brady and Roethlisberger do too. Both are highly complimentary of one another, so even during a week where many are again questioning how large a role cheating has played during this era of dominance, don’t expect any bulletin board material from the Steelers quarterback, who Brady called “an incredible player” earlier this week. Roethlisberger has never beaten a Brady-led team in New England, but Bill Belichick was also effusive in his praise of Roethlisberger, breaking from his typically tight-lipped character to proclaim that his Patriots won't see a better quarterback on the schedule all season.


Roethlisberger's task is made no easier by the absence of Bell, perhaps the most dynamic option out of the backfield in the entire league. Also missing is emerging receiving threat Martavis Bryant, a burner who scored eight touchdowns on just 26 receptions as a rookie last season. He’s suspended for four games, but Pittsburgh is confidence that Darrius Heyward-Bey, Markus Wheaton, Dri Archer and rookie Sammie Coates will ensure no drastic dropoff alongside superstar Antonio Brown. The same can’t be realistically expected of Bell’s replacement, new acquisition DeAngelo Williams, the long-time Carolina starter. He’s not the blocker or receiving threat out of the backfield that Bell is, but his experience is reassuring given the circumstances.


The Steelers also have uncertainty in play at the center spot, having lost four-time Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey to a broken fibula on Aug. 23. It's no coinicdence that the last time the Steelers lost his services for the season, they manged to go just 8-8, tied for the worst mark of Mike Tomlin's head coaching tenure. Pouncey isn't eligible to return until Week 9 at the earliest, leaving snapping duties to Cody Wallace and potentially veteran Doug Legursky. Both are serviceable, but neither is of Pouncey's caliber.


Evening thunderstorms are a possibility in the weather forecast, so keep tabs on that. NBC will have the broadcast with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth on the call.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Pittsburgh - 8:30 PM ET New England -7 500 DOUBLE PLAY


New England - Under 50.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, September 10


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL football betting trends to watch in September
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The Dallas Cowboys were 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread last season in away outings.


The pig is finally in the air.


That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘players’ alike.


Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.


Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”


Play accordingly.


HOME TEAMS


Keep an eye on (Good): Detroit has been notoriously fast starters for years and is 29-16 ATS on a field where Eminem calls home. The lone home game will not be easy, facing Denver.


Baltimore is still a respectable 28-16 ATS at home, but is not as strong under coach John Harbaugh. Let's see if they flex their muscles against Cincinnati on the 27th of the month.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona is just 14-23 ATS in the desert this month and has home games against New Orleans in Week 1 and San Francisco in Week 3. Definitely worth watching.


The New York Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick as their signal caller for now. Cleveland is in New Jersey for the season lid-lifter and Philadelphia two weeks later as the Flyboys try and improve on 18-28 ATS mark the first month of the season at home.


Cincinnati is a miserable 15-25 ATS this month and probably fortunately just has San Diego in Week 2 on the banks of the Ohio River.


Washington has been laboring at home for years and is 16-27 ATS before the home crowd. Having Miami and St. Louis the first two weeks, we will find out quickly if Robert Griffin III is really is among the best quarterbacks in the NFL as he recently proclaimed, or whether Kirk Cousins is really the answer.




AWAY TEAMS


Keep an eye on (Good): Kansas City is money on the road to begin the season at 30-17 ATS and has two chances to better that record: In the opener at Houston and the Week 3 Monday nighter at Lambeau.


Dallas was 8-0 and 7-1 ATS last season in away outings, which helped build a recent 29-16 ATS mark. That makes the Week 2 battle at Philly worth waiting for.


Keep an eye on (Bad): It has never made sense why a franchise as consistently good as Pittsburgh struggles early on the road and is a dismal 15-29 ATS. They might catch a bit of a break being in New England for Game 1 of the season. Seventeen days later they will be in St. Louis.


Speaking of the Rams, they are only marginally better at 15-28 ATS, but found a home team as bad as they are in Washington, leaving football bettors to choose the lesser of two evils.




FAVORITES


Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is a rock solid 29-16 ATS favorite, however, like usual will be tested at St. Louis in the opener. Two weeks later they will likely have an easier time facing Jay Cutler and the Bears.


Bad: With the Cardinals a lousy home team, it stands to reason they would be a mediocre favorite. At 7-18 ATS in September, this is as bad as it gets, so let's see of the Saints and Niners can expose them again as frauds in that role.


If you have too much money, we have a perfect solution... bet Carolina as favorites this month. The Panthers are 8-18 and should be favored in all three games in September!


St. Louis fits the bill also at 12-25 ATS, however, we know they will not be a favorite against Seattle in the first contest and chances are will not being handing out points at the Redskins or home to Pittsburgh. Watch the numbers and keep this in mind.




UNDERDOGS


Good: The Dallas Cowboys thrive in this role at a sensational 26-12 against the number. Their Week 2 showdown at Philly will be their lone chance to improve on record.


Keep an eye on (Good): With road games at Houston and Green Bay, Kansas City will be an underdog and seeking to improve on 27-17 ATS. In between those contests is a home date with rival Denver and based on the past two years in this matchup at Arrowhead, the Chiefs might actually not be favored until their fifth contest.


Bad: We already mentioned the Steelers slow starts and they are 10-21 ATS when catching points this month. They are underdogs at New England, with a Week 3 nonconference clash at St. Louis to be determined later.




DIVISION


Good: The Chiefs home opener will on Thursday night against Denver on the 17th and K.C. is a dandy 23-11 ATS in that role.


Keep an eye on (Bad): With New England's quarterback situation temporarily settled with Tom Brady back, we’ll see whether the added weight and the bull eye of being defending Super Bowl champs weighs on the Pats disappointing 16-24 ATS vs. the AFC East.


Cincinnati is a fairly disheartening 13-20 ATS against the AFC North early on, and its first division confrontation of 2015 will be at Baltimore.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1


LeSean McCoy scorched the Colts for 102 total yards and a touchdown as a member of the Eagles last season. The Bills will look to run vs. Indianapolis in Week 1.


Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:


Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 45)


Colts’ rushing defense vs. Bills’ run-heavy playbook


Rex Ryan isn’t keeping his offensive gameplan under wraps for his debut as the Bills head coach. Ryan pretty much tipped his pitch when he announced Tyrod Taylor as his starting quarterback, meaning expect a lot of rushing plays from Buffalo as they try to control the clock and keep Andrew Luck off the field. New running back LeSean McCoy is ready to roll and looking to do similar damage to the Colts defense as he did last season with the Eagles.


McCoy and former running mate Darren Sproles torched Indianapolis in Week 2, totaling 105 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while adding another 175 yards on catch-and-runs from short looks and screen passes. The Colts suffered a similar fate against Steelers RB LeVeon Bell in Week 8, giving up 92 yards rushing and 56 yards through the air to Pittsburgh’s versatile rusher. Indianapolis, which gave up 113.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry in 2014, also hasn’t faced a true dual-threat QB since Week 5 of the 2013 season when Seattle QB Russel Wilson tacked on 102 rushing yards to his 210 passing gains and two touchdowns.


Daily fantasy watch: RB LeSean McCoy, QB Tyrod Taylor




Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4, 48.5)


Ravens’ Week 1 conditioning vs. Altitude at Mile High


The Broncos hold one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, with the thin air at Sports Authority Field challenging the conditioning of visiting teams. Even in the middle of the schedule, when teams are in game shape, the altitude can leave opponents sucking wind in the final frame of the game. That impact is felt even more in Week 1 of the NFL season, when teams are in camp/preseason shape but not yet in peak physical condition. If you’ve ever player high-level sports, you know the only thing that can really get you into game shape is playing games.


Denver has dominated visitors in its home openers, losing just once in front of the Mile High faithful in the past 15 seasons. And the team uses this to their advantage, with Peyton Manning putting his foot down on the gas pedal and forcing opponents to pick up the pace with his no-huddle attack. The Broncos new offense, under Gary Kubiak, is blending that up-tempo style with his renowned smash-mouth zone-blocking rush, which should leave rivals running on empty. Baltimore has been in this spot before, losing a 49-27 Week 1 matchup in Denver as defending Super Bowl champs in 2013, buckling for 35 points the second half.


Daily fantasy watch: QB Peyton Manning, RB C.J. Anderson, TE Owen Daniels




Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+3.5, 43.5)


Bengals’ kick return talent vs. Raiders’ weak kick coverage


The Raiders had numerous faults in 2014, so singling out just one is like saying Al Davis had ugly teeth. However, for the purpose of this mismatch, Oakland’s trouble with kick coverage is the main culprit. The team allowed opponents to average 32.5 return yards on kickoffs – worst in the NFL – and 10.9 return yards on punts – fifth worst. Opponents of the Black & Silver started their offensive drives at an average just the 32-yard line, which snowballed into a defense that allowed a NFL-worst 28.3 points per game in 2014. The Raiders did added special teams standout Lorenzo Alexander, who was cut by Arizona. But it's a nice character hire of a hometown guy and merely a finger in the dam for Oakland's not-so special teams.


The Bengals are loaded with special teams talent, especially on their return team. Cincinnati still has Adam Jones returning kicks, coming off a season in which he lead the league in average yards per kickoff return (31.3) and finished second in average yards per punt return (11.9). Behind “Pacman”, Cincy has WR Brandon Tate, RB Giovanni Bernard, and rookie speedster Mario Alford from West Virginia, who ran a 4.43 second 40-yard dash at the combine. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense benefited from an average starting spot of almost the 30-yard line in 2014 (29.89).


Daily fantasy watch: Bengals defense/special teams




New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5)


Giants’ small defensive line vs. Cowboys’ massive blockers


Tony Romo and Dez Bryant may sell the most jerseys but the real stars of the Cowboys are the offensive linemen. Dallas dominated the trenches last season, helping the team own the football for 32:13 per game and giving Romo time to drop back, read the defense, read his stacks of hate mail, then find the open receiver. The starting offensive line runs an average height of over 6-foot-4 and combines to weigh 1,590 pounds – or about the same as a U-HAUL van minus the furniture. And that’s not counting the other bodies on the bench, like La'el Collins who runs 6-foot-4 and 321 pounds.


The G-Men started the season light on the defensive line, playing without top pass rusher DE Jason Pierre Paul, who blew off his index finger with Fourth of July fireworks. The Giants defensive line is smaller and built for speed, topping out at starting DT Johnathan Hankins (320 pounds), and gets diminutive very quickly once they start going down the depth chart. New York doesn’t have a lineman that demands a double team, which means maximum protection for Romo and gives the Cowboys extra blockers in TEs and RBs to pick up the blitz.


Daily fantasy watch: QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten, RB Joseph Randle/Darren McFadden

 

[CNOTES]

Win Total Top Picks


September 10, 2015




AFC BEST BET...


Thank goodness for the Houston Texans (8 ½ wins) who enlivened an otherwise desultory NFL preseason as this summer’s spotlighted team on HBO’s Hard Knocks, with second-year HC Bill O’Brien providing unexpected color with his salty language and quick wit. But O’Brien, who earned his coaching spurs as Bill Belichick’s o.c. before keeping a distressed Penn State program afloat, already proved he knows what he’s doing last season when stewarding the Texans’ 7-win improvement over 2013.


Offseason roster changes hardly seem to indicate a drop-off from last year’s 9-7 mark, with new QB Brian Hoyer (familiar witrh O'Brien from days at New England) considered by most insiders as an upgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick and the other QBs (including holdover Ryan Mallett) who rotated taking snaps a year ago, and the defense now features thick FA ex-Patriots NT Vince Wilfork to complement do-everything J.J. Watt and, apparently, former No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney, due to return to live action and provide another potential menacing component on the edge. Though RB Arian Foster (groin) remains sidelined for the time being, also consider that Houston competes in the forgiving AFC South, with this year’s inter-conference crossover games vs. the NFC South, which did not boast of an above-.500 team last season. The Watt-Clowney combination might even be enough to unnerve Andrew Luck in meetings vs. the Colts and give the Texans a chance to steal the South. A definite “over” for us at NRG Stadium.


NEXT BEST BETS...


As the preseason progressed, a mild groundswell of support began to develop for the New York Jets (7 ½), who won their last three exhibitions for new HC Todd Bowles. To his credit, Bowles seemed to get the team refocused after a variety of distractions early in training camp that included starting QB Geno Smith getting his jaw broken in a dispute with LB Ikemefuna Enemkpali, who was summarily released. But expecting an improvement of four wins over last year’s 4-12 mark seems to be asking a bit much.


Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick performed fairly well in August and might not be much of a dropoff from Geno (who could return in October), but was facing a succession of vanilla defenses in summer, and a leaky OL that conceded 47 sacks a year ago could become especially problematic with the slow-footed and error-prone Fitzpatrick in the pocket. Yes, there was a lot more inflow than outflow in free agency, and the return of Darrelle Revis and addition of Antonio Cromartie from Arizona (familiar to Bowles, recently the Cards’ d.c.) immediately upgrades the CB spots. The AFC East, however, is not a picnic, and there appear to be very few potential soft landings on a tough-looking 2015 slate. The Jets should improve their win total from 2014, but not enough to make the “over” work this fall. It’s an “under” for us at the green half of MetLife Stadium.


There remain questions about the immediate future of the Denver Broncos (10 ½) and QB Peyton Manning, who waited a bit longer to commit to a return in 2015 after last year’s quad injury and other various physical issues (including an admission from Manning that he has recurring numbness in his fingers, a byproduct of the neck surgeries of a few years ago). And Manning did not look in midseason form in limited preseason work this summer. But observers believe that the new Gary Kubiak-designed offense and the return of a zone-blocking emphasis to the Denver scheme will improve the Broncos’ balance and provide a late-career life-raft for Manning, much as it did for John Elway in the late ‘90s, when Kubiak was o.c. for Mike Shanahan’s Super Bowl winners.


And there remains a win-now mindset in Denver, as Elway was quick to move John Fox out the door and replace him with old chum Kubiak after another early-round playoff exit last January. The most intriguing angle of the homecoming theme, however, might be the return of d.c. Wade Phillips, one time Bronco d.c. and HC (and Kubiak’s d.c. at Houston), whose affinity for the blitz and high-pressure “D” could unleash Von Miller and Demarcus Ware (now an OLB in Phillips’ 3-4) to wreak havoc on opposing QBs from the edge. Denver has not won fewer than 12 games the past three years and should exceed the 10½, so look “over” at Sports Authority Field.


OTHERS...


The Kansas City Chiefs (8 ½) have exceeded this win total both years on HC Andy Reid’s watch. And the Chiefs should have at least partially solved their dilemma at WR (none of whom catching a TD pass last season) with ex-Eagle FA Jeremy Maclin. But there might be a ceiling on how far QB Alex Smith can take the team, and the 2015 slate is formidable at the least. “Under” at Arrowhead...We are not big fans of Andy Dalton, whose limitations are among the reasons the Cincinnati Bengals (8 ½ wins) have not gotten past the wild card round in the playoffs the past four years. But Cincy has consistently made the postseason, and with several key components in contract years, the Bengals should get above .500. “Over” at Paul Brown Stadium.


NFC BEST BET...


It’s easy these days to pile on the Washington Redskins (6 ½). And for good reason, as Dan Snyder’s team has become the most dysfunctional in the NFC, losing ten or more games in five of the past six seasons. While there is some tempered optimism among the long-suffering Skin fan base now that Kirk Cousins has been given the reins to the offense instead of the concussed RG III, we remind that Cousins endured a rough ride last season when starting five games, and there is little evidence an OL that couldn’t protect him or any of Jay Gruden’s QBs last season has significantly improved. Moreover, the bullet-riddled “D” endured a near-complete makeover in the offseason, forcing out coordinator Jim Haslett. We hardly expect a renaissance in D.C., so we’re looking “under” once again at FedEx Field.


NEXT BEST BETS...


Some team has to emerge in the NFC South after none could get above .500 last season, right? The most-likely candidate might be the Atlanta Falcons (8 ½), who seemed to tune out HC Mike Smith the past couple of seasons. But with a Pro Bowl-caliber QB in Matt Ryan and a collection of top-notch receivers, this was not the worst job for a new coach to inherit in the offseason. And former Seahawk d.c. Dan Quinn would appear to be a good fit, bringing a stop-end emphasis with him from Seattle as he looks to upgrade the Falcon defense. Suspect competition in the South makes us look “over” at the Georgia Dome.


Speaking of the South, we are not on board with hype surrounding the Carolina Panthers (8 ½), who were sitting on three wins past Thanksgiving before a December rally vs. suspect opposition allowed Cam Newton & Co. to squeeze into the 2014 playoffs with a losing record, temporarily saving the job of HC Ron Rivera. Importantly, Cam developed plenty of comfort with big rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin down the stretch last year. But Benjamin’s preseason knee injury could have a devastating impact upon a shallow group of Panther wideouts. That shortcoming could prove costly in a competitive (albeit suspect) divison, so we look “under” at Bank of America Stadium.


OTHERS...


We feel like bandwagon jumpers with the Minnesota Vikings (7), a chic pick by many to reach the playoffs. But there are plenty of reasons to get excited beyond the return of Adrian Peterson, as 2nd-year QB Teddy Bridgewater proved big enough to handle the NFL stage as a rookie, and 2nd-year HC Mike Zimmer (former Bengal d.c.) seems to get what he needs from his stop unit. Look “over” in Minneapolis...It could be a distracting season for the St. Louis Rams (7 ½), rumored to be on their way back to former home L.A. next year. We need more convincing that ex-Eagle Nick Foles is really an upgrade at QB, and Georgia rookie RB Todd Gurley has been slow to recover from knee surgery. The NFC West is still a tough neighborhood in which to live, and the 2015 slate looks daunting, so we're thinking "under" at Edward Jones Dome.

 

[CNOTES]

Raiders sign troubled pass rusher Aldon Smith


September 11, 2015




ALAMEDA, Calif. (AP) The Oakland Raiders signed troubled pass rusher Aldon Smith to a contract Friday, five weeks after he was released by San Francisco.


The 49ers cut ties with Smith on Aug. 7, a day after his fifth arrest since being drafted by the team in 2011. Smith was arrested in Santa Clara on charges of drunken driving, hit and run and vandalism.


The Santa Clara District Attorney's office said that Smith was charged Friday with three misdemeanors relating to his latest arrest. The charges are driving under the influence with a prior offense, hit and run with property damage and vandalism. Smith will be arraigned on Oct. 6.


''We are confident that the Raiders provide an environment where Aldon can thrive through the support, structure and leadership within the building,'' general manager Reggie McKenzie said in a statement. ''We are excited to have Aldon here in the Raiders family.''


Smith was suspended for the first nine games last season for violating the NFL's substance-abuse and personal-conduct policies. The league says he is currently eligible to play despite his latest arrest. But the NFL is still looking into that matter.


Smith is one of the most accomplished pass rushers when available. He had 33 1/2 sacks his first two seasons with the 49ers.


The Raiders needed an upgrade for their pass rush after recording a franchise-low 22 sacks last season.


''Aldon is an extremely talented young player,'' coach Jack Del Rio said. ''We welcome him to the Raiders family and expect him to bring his best every day and be a great teammate.''


Smith practiced on Friday in his familiar No. 99 but there was no immediate word on whether he would be able to play in the season opener Sunday against Cincinnati.


The Raiders waived defensive end Lavar Edwards to make room on the roster.