Cnotes National Football League Week # 6 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[CNOTES]

Giants-Eagles Capsule
October 15, 2015


NEW YORK GIANTS (3-2) at PHILADELPHIA (2-3)

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN


OPENING LINE - Eagles by 3 1/2


RECORD VS. SPREAD - Giants 3-2, Eagles 2-3


SERIES RECORD - Giants lead 84-78-2


LAST MEETING - Eagles beat Giants 34-26, Dec. 28, 2014


LAST WEEK - Giants beat 49ers 30-27; Eagles beat Saints 39-17


AP PRO32 RANKING - Giants No. 10 (tie), Eagles No. 17


GIANTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (26), PASS (7).


EAGLES OFFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (22), PASS (13).


GIANTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (2), PASS (32).


EAGLES DEFENSE - OVERALL (23), RUSH (10), PASS (26).


STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES -


Eagles have won 11 of last 14 meetings. ... Giants QB Eli Manning will make his 173rd consecutive start, longest active streak in NFL. He had club-record 41 completions last week. ... RB Shane Vereen had eight catches for 86 yards and one TD vs. 49ers, with three huge plays on late winning drive. ... RB Rashad Jennings had 176 scrimmage yards (102 rushing, 74 receiving) vs. Eagles on Nov. 3, 2013 with Oakland. ... WR Odell Beckham Jr. had 12 catches for 185 yards and one TD vs Eagles last December. ... WR Rueben Randle had six catches for 158 yards in that game. He has two games with two TDs vs. Eagles. ... LB Uani `Unga leads club with 35 tackles and has two INTs. ... QB Sam Bradford passed for 331 yards in only career start vs. Giants on Sept. 19, 2011 with Rams. ... RB DeMarco Murray rushed for 249 yards and one TD in two games vs. Giants last year with Dallas. ... DE Fletcher Cox had career-high three sacks with two forced fumbled and one recovery last week vs. Saints. ... LB Connor Barwin had three sacks and forced fumble on Manning in 27-0 win on Oct. 12, 2014. ... Rookie LB Jordan Hicks has 25 tackles, sack, three fumble recoveries, one forced fumble and one INT in last four games. ... Fantasy Tip: Eagles WR Jordan Matthews had eight catches for 105 yards and one TD in last meeting and seems to developing rapport with Bradford.

 

[CNOTES]

Ravens-49ers Capsule
October 15, 2015


BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-4) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-4)


Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS


OPENING LINE - Ravens by 3 1/2


RECORD VS. SPREAD - Ravens 0-4-1, 49ers 2-3-0


SERIES RECORD - Ravens lead 4-1


LAST MEETING - Ravens beat 49ers 34-31 in Super Bowl, Feb. 3, 2013


LAST WEEK - Ravens lost to Browns 33-30, OT; 49ers lost to Giants 30-27


AP PRO32 RANKING - Ravens No. 23, 49ers No. 28


RAVENS OFFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (15), PASS (17).


RAVENS DEFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (14), PASS (25).


49ERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (29), RUSH (5), PASS (31).


49ERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (31), RUSH (17), PASS (30).


STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES -


Last-place Ravens 1-4 for first time. ... 49ers, also last in division, on four-game skid for worst start since 2010. ...


Baltimore has won four straight vs. San Francisco, including Super Bowl. ...


Baltimore's second trip to Bay Area in less than month after 37-33 loss at Oakland on Sept. 20. Also Ravens' fourth road game in six weeks, third out West. ...


Ravens have won six in row against NFC teams and are 19-9 vs. NFC under John Harbaugh. ...


Baltimore's first trip to 49ers' home field since 9-7 win Oct. 7, 2007. ...


Teams played in preseason last year after holding joint practices. ...

Last regular-season meeting was Ravens' Thanksgiving night win in 2011 with John Harbaugh beating little brother Jim in now-departed coach's first year in NFL. ...


Ravens have lost second-half leads in each defeat. ...


San Francisco's lone victory against Ravens was Nov. 17, 1996, in first meeting between teams. ...


49ers WRs Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith are former top targets of Ravens QB Joe Flacco. ...


Flacco went 15 of 23 for 161 yards and TD in Ravens' 16-6 win on Thanksgiving 2011. Voted Super Bowl MVP with 22-of-33 line for 287 yards, three TDs and 124.2 passer rating. ...


Ravens won Super Bowl with goal-line stand as 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick, in 10th career start and promoted previous November over now-Chiefs QB Alex Smith, threw three straight incomplete passes intended for Michael Crabtree with chances coming from Ravens 5. ...


Super Bowl defeat was first by 49ers, who were 5-0 previously in NFL's championship game. ...


Only four 49ers Super Bowl starters still around: Kaepernick, TE Vernon Davis, LT Joe Staley, LG Alex Boone. ...


In seven career games vs. Baltimore, 49ers S Antoine Bethea has 44 tackles and three interceptions. ...


Fantasy Tip: 49ers TE Vernon Davis is expected back after missing two games with knee injury, so pressing question is how effective he might be considering layoff.

 

[CNOTES]

Redskins-Jets Capsule
October 15, 2015


WASHINGTON (2-3) at NEW YORK JETS (3-1)


Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox


OPENING LINE - Jets by 6


RECORD VS. SPREAD - Redskins 3-2, Jets 3-1


SERIES RECORD - Redskins lead 8-2


LAST MEETING - Jets beat Redskins 34-19, Dec. 4, 2011


LAST WEEK - Redskins lost to Falcons 25-19, OT; Jets had bye, beat Dolphins 27-14 on Oct. 4


AP PRO32 RANKING - Redskins No. 21, Jets No. 8


REDSKINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (12), PASS (18).


REDSKINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (12), PASS (8).


JETS OFFENSE - OVERALL (14), RUSH (7), PASS (24).


JETS DEFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (8), PASS (2).


STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES -


Redskins have never lost to Jets on road, going 4-0, including 23-20 OT victory in 2007. Washington's .800 winning percentage (8-2) vs. Jets is team's best mark against any opponent with minimum of 10 games played. ...

Redskins playing second game at MetLife Stadium in four weeks after losing to Giants 32-21 on Sept. 24. ...


Washington looking for first road victory since Week 8 last season. ...


Washington has five takeaways in last two games after just one in first three games. Looking to force multiple turnovers in three consecutive games for first time since final three weeks of 2013 season. ...


Redskins tied with Tennessee for league's best average time of possession at 34 minutes, 18 seconds. ...


Kirk Cousins trying to become first Redskins QB to complete 30 or more passes in three games in one season. Needs 18 completions for most by Redskins QB through first six games since 1970 merger. ...


RB Matt Jones tied for most TD runs by rookie this season with three. ...


Rookie WR Jamison Crowder had career-high eight catches and 87 yards vs. Falcons. ...


WR DeSean Jackson could return after sitting out since straining left hamstring in season opener. ...


LB Ryan Kerrigan has 41 1/2 sacks and needs one to pass Ken Harvey for fourth in team history.


... Jets looking for first 4-1 start since 2010 team opened 5-1 and finished 11-5. ...


QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 3-0 with 677 yards passing, four TDs and one INT in last three vs. Redskins. ...


RB Chris Ivory had career-high 166 yards rushing against Dolphins, most in history of NFL's International Series in London. ...


WR Brandon Marshall has three straight games of 100 or more yards receiving, first Jets player to accomplish feat since Al Toon in 1988. ...


Jets have 13 takeaways, matching total for all of last season and tied for second in NFL behind Denver (14). ...


CB Darrelle Revis leads NFL with five takeaways (three fumble recoveries, two INTs). ...


Jets have forced 18 straight third-down stops, longest stretch since 2010 team had 21 in row. ...


DE Sheldon Richardson returns after serving four-game suspension for violating league's substance abuse policy.

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers-Seahawks Capsule
October 15, 2015


CAROLINA (4-0) at SEATTLE (2-3)


Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox


OPENING LINE - Seahawks by 7 1/2


RECORD VS. SPREAD - Panthers 3-1, Seahawks 1-3-1


SERIES RECORD - Seahawks lead 7-2


LAST MEETING - Seahawks beat Panthers 31-17, Jan. 10, 2015 in NFC divisional playoff


LAST WEEK - Panthers had bye, beat Bucs 37-23 on Oct. 4; Seahawks lost to Bengals 27-24, OT


AP PRO32 RANKING - Panthers No. 7, Seahawks No. 10 (tie)


PANTHERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (25), RUSH (4), PASS (29)


PANTHERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (10), RUSH (6), PASS (16)


SEAHAWKS OFFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (1), PASS (26)


SEAHAWKS DEFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (7), PASS (7)


STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES -


Including playoffs, this is sixth meeting since 2010 season. ...


Seahawks beat Panthers in NFC divisional playoff in January thanks to 17-point fourth quarter that included Kam Chancellor's 90-yard interception return for touchdown. ...


Panthers one of six undefeated teams. ...


Panthers have not started 5-0 since 2003 when they finished 11-5 and reached Super Bowl. ...


After traveling to Seattle, Panthers play next three and four of next five at home. ...


QB Cam Newton has five total touchdowns - four passing, one rushing - in past two games. ...


RB Jonathan Stewart topped 5,000 career yards rushing with Panthers in Week 4; one of two players in franchise history to top 5,000-yard mark. ...


Panthers have rushed for at least 100 yards as team in 15 straight games, franchise record. ...


DE Ryan Delaire made his NFL debut in Week 4 and had two sacks against Tampa Bay. ...


All-Pro LB Luke Kuechly expected to return after missing three games due to concussion. ...


CB Josh Norman was NFC defensive player of week in Week 4 after having two interceptions against Tampa Bay, returning one for touchdown. ...


Panthers have forced 11 turnovers and have plus-8 turnover differential. ...


Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has been sacked 22 times, most in NFL. ...


Wilson is second in league in yards rushing by QB with 198. ...


RB Marshawn Lynch expected to play after missing past two games with hamstring injury. ...


Rookie RB Thomas Rawls rushed for 169 yards last week vs. Bengals, second-most yards rushing by rookie in franchise history. Curt Warner rushed for 207 in 1983. ...


Seahawks have gone 16 straight games dating back to last season with at least 100 yards rushing as team. Seahawks lead NFL in rushing with 142.4 yards per game. ...


TE Jimmy Graham with 21 catches and 2 TDs in five games. Had 34 catches and 3 TDs in first five games last season with Saints. ...


LB Bobby Wagner game-time decision after suffering strained pectoral muscle last week against Bengals. Seahawks would either move K.J. Wright to middle linebacker or go with backup Brock Coyle if Wagner can't play. ...


S Earl Thomas had Seahawks' first interception of season last week. Seahawks had only two interceptions through five games last season. ...


Fantasy Tip: Carolina TE Greg Olsen averaging 14.3 yards per reception, fourth most among all tight ends. Bengals TE Tyler Eifert had two TDs last week against Seattle.

 

[CNOTES]

Bengals-Bills Capsule
October 15, 2015


CINCINNATI (5-0) at BUFFALO (3-2)


Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS


OPENING LINE - Bengals by 1-1/2


RECORD VS. SPREAD - Bengals 4-0-1, Bills 2-2-1


SERIES RECORD - Bills lead 15-13


LAST MEETING - Bengals beat Bills 27-24, OT, Oct. 13, 2013


LAST WEEK - Bengals beat Seahawks 27-24, OT; Bills beat Titans 14-13


AP PRO32 RANKING - Bengals No. 3, Bills No. 13


BENGALS OFFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (10), PASS (5).


BENGALS DEFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (18), PASS (22).


BILLS OFFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (6), PASS (T27).


BILLS DEFENSE - OVERALL (16), RUSH (3), PASS (24).


STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES -


Bills coach Rex Ryan has 3-1 record against former boss, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis. They worked together in Baltimore from 1999-2001, when Ryan was defensive assistant under Lewis, then-Ravens defensive coordinator. ...


Bengals are one win short of matching best start to season in team history, set in 1975 and 1988. Team's longest winning streak is seven set in 1970. ...


In beating Seattle, Cincinnati became first NFL team since 2010 to win after trailing by 17 or more in fourth quarter. ...


QB Andy Dalton's 115.6 passer rating is highest of any Bengals player in team history through five games. ...


Dalton was sacked four times against Seattle after being sacked just twice in first four games. ...


TE Tyler Eifert is tied for second in NFL with five touchdown catches. ...


DT Geno Atkins has sack in four of five games, upping his five-plus season career total to 36. ...


Bills have chance to open 4-2 or better for third time since 15-season playoff drought began in 2000. ...


Buffalo has lost past two home games. ...


With starting QB Tyrod Taylor's status uncertain because of sprained left knee, EJ Manuel has shot to make first start since 23-17 loss at Houston on Sept. 28, 2014. ...


Minus RB LeSean McCoy (left hamstring), running backs have combined for 92 yards rushing past two games. ...


WR Sammy Watkins set to return after missing two games with strained right calf. ...


Against Tennessee, Buffalo finished with 24:29 in time of possession, fewest in victory since 23:01 in a 13-10 win at Miami in 2007. ...


Bills have combined for 27 first downs in past two games. ...


With nine sacks through five games, defense is eight off last year's pace when Buffalo finished with NFL-leading 54. ...


Fantasy Tip: Bengals' defense is option against injury-depleted Bills' offense that lacks running threat minus McCoy and rookie backup Karlos Williams, whose status is uncertain due to concussion.

 

[CNOTES]

Texans-Jaguars Capsule
October 15, 2015


HOUSTON (1-4) at JACKSONVILLE (1-4)


Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS


OPENING LINE - Texans by 2 1/2


RECORD VS. SPREAD - Texans 1-4, Jaguars 2-3


SERIES RECORD - Texans lead 15-11


LAST MEETING - Texans beat Jaguars 23-17, Dec. 28, 2014


LAST WEEK - Texans lost to Colts 27-20; Jaguars lost to Buccaneers 38-31


AP PRO32 RANKING - Texans No. 29, Jaguars No. 32


TEXANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (20), PASS (4)


TEXANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (22), PASS (10)


JAGUARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (21), PASS (12)


JAGUARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (19), RUSH (16), PASS (21)


STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES -


Texans have won seven of last nine in series. ... Five of last seven meetings have been decided by seven points or less. ...


Texans WR Cecil Shorts III returns to Jacksonville, where he spent previous four seasons. ...


Houston QB Brian Hoyer makes first start since season opener. ...


Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins, who leads NFL with 578 yards receiving, is looking for fourth consecutive 100-yard game, which would tie Andre Johnson's franchise record. ...


Houston DE J.J. Watt needs one sack to pass Richard Dent for fourth most in a player's first five seasons. Watt has 11 1/2 career sacks against Jacksonville, including six in two games against Blake Bortles. ...


Texans have scored 51 points in fourth quarter this season, which ranks second in NFL. ... Jaguars return home after getting swept on three-game road trip. ...


Bortles is first QB in franchise history with 10 or more touchdown passes in first five games of season. ...


Jacksonville expects to get DT Sen'Derrick Marks and RB Denard Robinson back from knee injuries. ...


Jaguars WRs Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have combined for 49 receptions for 832 yards and seven TDs this season. Only NFL duo with more yards is Denver's Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. ...


Fantasy Tip: Jaguars expect to have more packages for two-time Pro Bowl TE Julius Thomas, who played sparingly in his season debut last week.

 

[CNOTES]

Chiefs-Vikings Capsule
October 15, 2015


KANSAS CITY (1-4) at MINNESOTA (2-2)


Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS


OPENING LINE - Vikings by 2 1/2


RECORD VS. SPREAD - Chiefs 1-4, Vikings 3-1


SERIES RECORD - Chiefs lead 7-4


LAST MEETING - Chiefs beat Vikings 22-17, Sept. 2, 2011


LAST WEEK - Chiefs lost to Bears 18-17; Vikings had bye, lost to Broncos 23-20 on Oct. 4


AP PRO32 RANKING - Chiefs No. 24, Vikings No. 14


CHIEFS OFFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (18), PASS (21).


CHIEFS DEFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (13), PASS (27).


VIKINGS OFFENSE - OVERALL (31), RUSH (2), PASS (32).


VIKINGS DEFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (26), PASS (12).


STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES -


This is only second meeting in Minnesota between Chiefs and Vikings over last 19 seasons. Vikings beat Chiefs 45-20 at Metrodome in 2003, behind 146 yards and three TDs rushing by Onterrio Smith. ...


Chiefs have lost star RB Jamaal Charles for season to torn right ACL. He tore left one in 2011. ...


Chiefs QB Alex Smith has been sacked 21 times, second-most in NFL behind Russell Wilson (22). ...


Travis Kelce has 328 yards receiving for Chiefs, third-best among TEs in league behind Rob Gronkowski and Gary Barnidge. ...


Kansas City FS Husain Abdullah spent first four years with Vikings, starting 24 games over 2010 and 2011 seasons. ...


Vikings have won five straight at temporary outdoor home TCF Bank Stadium. ...


Vikings are sixth in NFL with average of 18.3 points allowed per game. Last time they gave up fewer than 20 points per game was 2009. ...


Minnesota allowing league-best 0.8 yards per punt return.




... Fantasy Tip: Charcandrick West and Knile Davis expected to share carries for Chiefs in absence of Charles, facing Vikings' defense vulnerable against run at times. Vikings WR Stefon Diggs would be good waiver wire grab against Chiefs' defense that has surrendered NFL-most 13 passing TDs. Diggs had six catches for 87 yards in NFL debut at Denver against one of league's best defenses.

 

[CNOTES]

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores


8:25 PM EDT


103 ATLANTA FALCONS -3 +02 -3 -15 / -3 / -3 -05 -3 -155
104 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 51 52.5o11 / 52u22 / 52 52.5o14 +135

ATL-WR-Julio Jones-Probable | TV: CBS, NFL, DTV: 212 | Dome




-------------------------------




NFL Consensus Picks


SIDES (ATS)


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds


8:25 PM Atlanta -3 1573 62.54% New Orleans +3 942 37.46% View View




TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)


Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds


8:25 PM Atlanta 52 1212 64.50% New Orleans 52 667 35.50% View View




----------------------------------




THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15


Game Score Status Pick Amount


Atlanta - 8:25 PM ET New Orleans +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY


New Orleans - Under 52 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6


As bad as the Niners have been this season, Colin Kaepernick & Co. have one strength and it's something they can exploit against the Ravens defense Sunday.


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5)


Bears’ YAC defense vs. Lions’ dependency on YAC


The Detroit Lions don’t have much to hang their hat on when it comes to their sputtering offense. They do, however, rank among the top teams in picking up extra yardage after the catch – also known as YAC. Heading into Week 6, the Lions have totaled 793 yards after the catch (third most in the NFL), averaging 5.39 in additional gains following a reception. The biggest culprits for Detroit’s YAC production are RB Theo Riddick and WR Golden Tate, but they also have playmakers in Calvin Johnson and butter-fingered rookie RB Ameer Abdullah.


Chicago has been very good against the pass so far, allowing just 185.8 yards through the air per game – third lowest in the league. And keeping those receiving yards down is the Bears’ ability to get to the receiver and snuff them out before they can added any additional damage. Chicago has given up a total of 430 YAC through four games, for an average of just 86 yards after the catch per outing. If the Bears can stop Detroit from tacking on any extra yardage, the 3-point spread could be tough to topple for a Lions offense scoring less than 17 points per game.


Daily fantasy watch: Buy - Bears D/ST, Fade – RB Theo Riddick, WR Golden Tate


Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4, 42.5)


Broncos’ pass rush vs. Browns’ big passing plays


Josh McCown ranks well ahead of Peyton Manning in the DFS markets, racking up a stunning average of 20.3 points per week compared to Manning’s paltry average of 13.19. Take a couple seconds to let that one sink in. However, come Sunday, the Broncos defense may not give McCown that much time to get the ball off. Denver has a league-leading 22 sacks on the season along with 29 defensive hurries, giving opposing QBs very little time to find their threats down field. That ability to put passers on their heels has also equated to seven interceptions – two of which have gone back to the house for six points.


The Browns depend on the big play to move the chains in recent weeks, totaling 40 passes of 15 yards or more over the past four contests – a league high. Cleveland has struck for 25 yards or more on 13 plays this season, targeting playmakers in WR Travis Benjamin and TE Gary Barnidge. But with Denver’s pass rushers closing in quick, McCown may not have enough time to allow those big plays to develop this Sunday. Cleveland has given up 18 sacks already this season, including four to the Ravens last week. Those waiting for the other shoe to drop on McCown may hear a mighty thud by the time this game is over.


Daily fantasy watch: Buy – Broncos D/ST, Fade – QB Josh McCown


Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 44)


Ravens’ third-down defense vs. Niners’ third-down offense


The 49ers have given Bay Area football fans very little to cheer about in 2015, and it’s been like that since Jim Harbaugh jumped ship to raise Michigan football from the dead. The one thing San Francisco has been able to do – and do well – is move the chains on third down. Heading into Week 6, the Niners have converted on more than 41 percent of their third down tries. Considering how bad this offense has been, that’s a pretty tasty number right there. Last week, against the Giants on Sunday Night Football, San Fran converted on eight of its 14 third downs and keep the offense on the field long enough to cover the spread. The crazy legs of Colin Kaepernick and veteran WR Anquan Boldin (83 yards on 7 catches on third down/11.9 YPC) have been the two biggest cogs on third down for the 49ers.


Baltimore is already in a tough spot for this game, having to cross the country for its fourth road trip in six weeks. The Ravens haven’t been able to land a knockout punch with opponents on the ropes, allowing teams to convert on 49.37 percent of their third down attempts – second worst in the NFL just below Jacksonville. That’s allowed teams to dominate the time of possession battle against Baltimore, which has watched opponents eat up an average of 31:17 worth of clock. The Ravens were bullied on third down versus Cleveland, with the Browns going 12 for 19 in those situations.


Daily fantasy watch: Buy – QB Colin Kaepernick, WR Anquan Boldin, Fade – Baltimore D/ST


New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 54.5)


Patriots’ explosive first halves vs. Colts’ slow starts


The defending Super Bowl champs don’t ease their toe into the pool each Sunday. They do a full-on cannonball, soaking the opposing team in a tidal wave of points. New England is averaging just under a touchdown in the first quarter and 11 points in the second quarter for an average of 17.8 first-half points per game – second most in the NFL. On top of that, the Patriots defense has locked down opponents to only 5.5 points through the first 30 minutes of football. That difference forces opponents to play outside of their game plan and pick up the pace on offense in order to catch up – playing right into the hands of Darth Belichick.


The Colts have been sleepy eyed in the opening frames, putting up just 7.4 points per first half on the season. With QB Andrew Luck sidelined with a shoulder injury, Indianapolis actually had its two most productive first halves under backup Matt Hasselbeck, scoring 13 and 10 points the past two weeks. Luck is expected back for this “Deflategate” rematch but even if he’s healthy enough to get the Colts out of the blocks, it might be like bringing a knife to a gun fight. The Patriots love to pile it on – even when there’s no incentive - and New England has more than a few good reasons to let the air out of Lucas Oil Field early and often Sunday night.


Daily fantasy watch: Buy - QB, Tom Brady, WR Julian Edleman, TE Rob Gronkowski, Fade - Colts D/ST

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6


Washington @ NY Jets

Game 261-262
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
127.020
NY Jets
135.195
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 8
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 6
41
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-6); Under

Arizona @ Pittsburgh

Game 263-264
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
135.285
Pittsburgh
138.257
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+3 1/2); Over

Miami @ Tennessee

Game 265-266
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.845
Tennessee
128.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+2 1/2); Under

Carolina @ Seattle

Game 267-268
October 18, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.408
Seattle
141.886
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-7); Over

San Diego @ Green Bay

Game 269-270
October 18, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
133.425
Green Bay
140.912
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+10 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ San Francisco

Game 271-272
October 18, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
130.498
San Francisco
131.376
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Over

Denver @ Cleveland

Game 251-252
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
140.263
Cleveland
128.457
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 12
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 4
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-4); Under

New England @ Indianapolis

Game 273-274
October 18, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
145.767
Indianapolis
132.545
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 13
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7 1/2); Under

Cincinnati @ Buffalo

Game 253-254
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
135.423
Buffalo
136.223
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ Minnesota

Game 255-256
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
131.998
Minnesota
132.807
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+4); Under

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 257-258
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
122.921
Jacksonville
126.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1
43
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+1); Under

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 259-260
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
123.031
Detroit
133.519
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 10 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-3); Over


NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Game 275-276
October 19, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
137.652
Philadelphia
134.711
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 3
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
49
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+4); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 6


Broncos (5-0) @ Browns (2-3)-- Unbeaten Broncos already won two games where offense didn't score TD; three of their five wins are by 6 or less points- they're 8-34 on 3rd down in last three games, as fading Manning has managed games while defense is winning them. Denver won last six series games, with four of six wins by 10+ points; their last visit here was in '08. Browns threw for 1,078 yards in last three games. 422 yards in rare win Sunday at Baltimore last week; McCown has established himself as #1 QB. Last two Brown games came down to FG on last play; since '12, they're 8-5 as home dogs. AFC North teams are 7-4-1 vs spread out of division. AFC West teams are 6-10 vs spread, 3-5 when favored.


Bengals (5-0) @ Bills (3-2)-- Cincinnati is unbeaten (4-0-1 vs spread) after OT win over Seattle, scoring 24+ points every game; they're 27-13-2 vs spread in last 42 games where spread was 3 or less points. Bengals won last two games with Buffalo by FG each, after losing previous ten meetings; they're 2-8 in last ten visits here. Bills scored only 24 points in last two games, after averaging 33.3 ppg in first three; only two QBs to beat Buffalo this year both won multiple Super Bowls (Brady/Manning). Cincinnati came back from down 17 in 4th quarter Sunday, first NFL team in 428 such games to do that. Bills are 12-8 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Four of five Bengal games went over total. AFC East teams are 6-3-1 vs spread out of division. Buffalo QB Taylor (MCL) may not play here; former starter Manuel would take his place- they'll regret trading Matt Cassel.


Chiefs (1-4) @ Vikings (2-2)-- Chiefs lost last four games, giving up 74 points in losing last two road tilts; now star RB Charles is gone and QB Smith doesn't throw ball well enough to carry offense. In last two games, Chiefs, have one TD, nine FGs; they've been outscored 37-9 in second half. Minnesota lost its last five post-bye games, with eight points closest loss; Vikings are 5-2 as home favorites under Zimmer, 4-0 outside NFC North. Home side won six of last seven series games; Chiefs are here for first time since '03. KC is 7-5 as road dog under Reid, 1-2 this year. Four of five Chief games went over total. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-0.


Texans (1-4) @ Jaguars (1-4)-- Houston won seven of last nine series games; four of last five were decided by 7 or less points. Texans won three of last four visits here, but are 0-2 on road this year, allowing 36 ppg- they're -8 in turnovers for season, and neither QB has played well enough to win games. Last three weeks, Jaguar foes are 23-50 on third down; they just played three straight road games, are 1-1 at home. Since '11, Houston is 11-7-1 as road favorite, but they're 4-11-1 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Since '09, Jaguars are 9-24-1 as a home underdog; they're 6-11 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Under is 20-13 in last 33 Jax home games. Divisional home dogs are 3-4 this season.


Bears (2-3) @ Lions (0-5)-- Chicago just posted consecutive comeback last-minute wins for first time since 1962; Bears lost last four games with Detroit, three by 8 or less points. Chicago lost three of last four visits here, losing by 11-8-17 points; Bears are 7-14 in last 21 NFC North road games, 9-15-1 as road dog since '11- since '12, they're 7-17-2 in games with spread of 3 or less. Last three Bear games, three of last four Lion games stayed under total. Lions scored 13.8 ppg in last four games; they're 5-2-1 in last eight as home favorite, 7-3 as NFC North home fave, but 8-12-1 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less. Over is 15-11 in Detroit's last 26 home games. Chicago's three losses: Packers-Cardinals-Seattle, three of best teams in league.


Redskins (2-3) @ Jets (3-1)-- Washington making second visit to Swamp this season; they lost 32-21 (+3) to Giants here in Week 3 Thursday game. Redskins played nailbiters last two weeks, beating Philly in last minute, losing in OT at Atlanta; they're 8-2 against Jets, winning last four played here. Since '07, Washington is 30-46-7 vs spread in non-division games; since '13, they're 5-11 as road underdogs. Jets lost four of last five post-bye games; since '07, they're 19-28-1 as home favorite. Gang Green is +9 in turnovers in its wins, -3 in one loss; Washington has five takeaways in last two games, after having only two in first three weeks. Last three Jet games, four of five Redskin games stayed under total. AFC East teams are 6-3-1 vs spread out of division; NFC East teams are 4-7.


Cardinals (4-1) @ Steelers (3-2)-- Pttsburgh fired Bruce Arians as OC after the '11 season, over objections of Big Ben; he returns here with a 25-12 record as HC of Arizona team that scored 90 points winning first two road games (12 TDs on 21 drives). Cardinals are 5-1 as home favorite since '13, 15-6-1 in last 22 non-divisional road games. All five Arizona tilts this season went over total. Pittsburgh escaped San Diego with last-second win Monday nite; they're 8-3 in last 11 games with Arizona, winning last two here. Redbirds' last win in Steel City was in 1969. Since '07, Steelers are 5-1-1 as home dogs; they're 6-1 in last seven games following an upset win. Over is 10-4 in Pittsburgh's last 14 home games. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread.


Dolphins (1-3) @ Titans (1-3)-- First game for Campbell as interim HC of Dolphins, who lost last three games, allowing 157 rushing yards/game with only one takeaway (-4 ratio). Since '08, Miami is 29-16-1 as road dog (9-9 since '12); they're 4-8 in last 12 games with a spread of 3 or less, and lost three of last four post-bye games. Tennessee also lost its last three games, losing last two by total of three points; Titans are favored for first time this year, are 1-5-1 as home faves since 2013, 9-16-2 in games with spread of 3 or less. Would expect Miami to run ball more under Campbell, a former TE who was TE coach but hasn't ever been a coordinator. AFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside the division. Three of four Tennessee games went over total.


Panthers (4-0) @ Seahawks (2-3)-- Seattle is 2-0 at home, not allowing an offensive TD; two of its losses were wth Chancellor out- they won last four series games, with last three slugfests by 16-12/12-7/13-9 scores. Carolina lost last three visits here by 6-20-17 points; since '12, Panthers are 12-5 as road dogs, but they've also lost last four post-bye games, with three losses by 16+ points. Carolina scored three defensive TDs in its two road wins; over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Under is 15-11 in last 26 Seattle home games; they are 19-8 as home favorite with Carroll, 9-5 in last 14 games as non-divisional HF. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; NFC South teams are 9-5 against spread outside their division.


Chargers (2-3) @ Packers (5-0)-- Green Bay is 9-1-1 vs spread in last 11 home games, 5-0 vs spread overall this season- they turned ball over three times in 24-10 win LW, after they turned ball over only once in first four games. Pack is 18-8-1 as non-divisional home faves. Long travel, short week for Bolts after last-second home loss late Monday night; Chargers won last four post-Monday games, but lost nine of last 10 games vs Packers, who scored 31+ points in last five series games. Since '12, San Diego is 13-7-1 as road dog, 17-8-1 after losing as a favorite, Chargers haven't been to Lambeau Field since '07- last win here was in '84. San Diego is 0-2 on road, losing by 5-17 points. Over is 27-16 in Green Bay's last 43 home games, but 1-2 this year.


Ravens (1-4) @ 49ers (1-4)-- John Harbaugh beat the 49ers in Super Bowl three years ago, when his brother was coaching Niners; now Jim is in Michigan, 49ers are 1-4, Baltimore's defense has fallen apart. In four losses, Raven opponents are 37-67 on third down- Steelers were 2-13 in only win. Baltimore split pair of OT games last two weeks; their defense was gassed at end LW, giving up 457 passing yards to McCown, most by any Cleveland QB since Otto Graham. Ravens are 8-11 as road favorites since '11, 13-15-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less. 49ers allowed 10 ppg in splitting pair of home games, giving up two TDs on 19 drives- they're giving up 40 ppg on road. Under is 13-5 in 49ers' last 18 home games, 2-0 this year.


Patriots (4-0) @ Colts (3-2)-- Indy won its last three games by total of 12 points as they recover from 0-2 start, but now Patriots come to town having won last six games vs Colts, scoring average of 47.3 ppg in last four series games. Throw in NE revenge motive after Colts accused them of taking air out of balls in playoffs LY and this could get ugly, seeing as Luck didn't play for Colts in last two games, but is expected back here. Pats are scoring 37.3 ppg, winning first two on road 40-32/30-6; they're still just 3-7 in last ten as road favorite, but 3-0-1 vs spread overall this season. Indy is 6-0 as a home underdog since '12, 7-3 as non-divisional home underdog. Under is 35-22-1 in Indy home games since 2006.


Giants (3-2) @ Eagles (2-3)-- Philly is 11-3 in last 14 games vs Big Blue; teams split last four games played here. Giants scored 28.7 ppg in winning last three games after 0-2 start in which they led by 10+ points in 4th quarter both times- since '11, they're 15-10 as road dogs, 2-0 this season. Giants are 12-6 as divisional road underdog since '07; Eagles are 2-6 as divisional home favorite, but are 8-4 in last 12 games overall as a home fave. Over is 7-3 in Giants' last ten road games, 17-9 in Eagles' last 26 home games. Philly averaged 7.1/7.4 ypa in last two games, after averaging 6.5 or less in first three games- they're +5 in TOs in two wins, -2 in losses. Giant opponents were over 50% on 3rd down in three of five tilts so far this year. Kaepernick threw for 262 yards against them LW.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL injury report for Sunday's games




ARIZONA CARDINALS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS


ARIZONA CARDINALS


--Out: LB Alex Okafor (calf)


--Questionable: G Mike Iupati (back), S Rashad Johnson (thigh, hip), LB LaMarr Woodley (chest)


--Probable: CB Justin Bethel (foot), WR John Brown (hamstring), TE Darren Fells (hip), S Tony Jefferson (neck), S Tyrann Mathieu (heel), WR J.J. Nelson (shoulder), T Jared Veldheer (ribs)


PITTSBURGH STEELERS


--Out: S Will Allen (ankle), QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee, coach's decision to not practice Friday), LB Ryan Shazier (shoulder)


--Questionable: CB Cortez Allen (knee), LB Jarvis Jones (hip)


--Probable: LB James Harrison (illness), C Doug Legursky (back)


BALTIMORE RAVENS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS


BALTIMORE RAVENS


--Out: S Terrence Brooks (thumb), DE Chris Canty (calf), WR Breshad Perriman (knee), WR Darren Waller (concussion)


--Doubtful: CB Lardarius Webb (thigh)


--Questionable: LB Elvis Dumervil (thigh), RB Justin Forsett (ankle), TE Crockett Gillmore (calf), WR Chris Givens (ankle), WR Steve Smith (back), G Marshal Yanda (ankle)


--Probable: LB Daryl Smith (not injury related)


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS


--Doubtful: RB Reggie Bush (calf)


--Questionable: LB Ahmad Brooks (not injury related, shoulder), TE Vernon Davis (knee), WR Bruce Ellington (calf), LB Eli Harold (knee), RB Carlos Hyde (foot), G Brandon Thomas (ankle)


--Probable: G Alex Boone (shoulder), LB Navorro Bowman (not injury related), TE Vance McDonald (chest)


CAROLINA PANTHERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS


CAROLINA PANTHERS


--Out: DE Jared Allen (back), LB A.J. Klein (concussion), T Daryl Williams (knee)


--Doubtful: TE Richie Brockel (hamstring)


--Questionable: G Amini Silatolu (ankle)


--Probable: WR Jerricho Cotchery (ankle), LB Luke Kuechly (concussion)


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS


--Out: CB Marcus Burley (hand)


--Doubtful: DE Frank Clark (hamstring), DT Jordan Hill (quadricep), LB Nick Moody (ankle), CB Tye Smith (hip)


--Questionable: LB Brock Coyle (knee), DE Demarcus Dobbs (shoulder), RB Marshawn Lynch (hamstring), LB Bobby Wagner (pectoral)


--Probable: DE Michael Bennett (not injury related), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (hamstring)


CHICAGO BEARS at DETROIT LIONS


CHICAGO BEARS


--Doubtful: DE Ego Ferguson (knee), LB Shea McClellin (knee), CB Terrance Mitchell (hamstring), S Antrel Rolle (ankle)


--Questionable: WR Josh Bellamy (groin), TE Martellus Bennett (quadricep), T Jermon Bushrod (shoulder), WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring), LB Pernell McPhee (shoulder), G Patrick Omameh (ankle), DT Jay Ratliff (ankle), WR Eddie Royal (ankle), DE Will Sutton (elbow)


DETROIT LIONS


--Out: TE Eric Ebron (knee), LB DeAndre Levy (hip), DT Haloti Ngata (calf)


--Questionable: RB Joique Bell (ankle), S James Ihedigbo (quadricep), RB Theo Riddick (groin)


--Probable: DE Jason Jones (knee), CB Darius Slay (hip), DE Darryl Tapp (ankle), WR Golden Tate (hip), T LaAdrian Waddle (knee), G Larry Warford (ankle)


CINCINNATI BENGALS at BUFFALO BILLS


CINCINNATI BENGALS


--Questionable: CB Leon Hall (back)


--Probable: CB Adam Jones (groin), WR Marvin Jones (foot), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (hip), T Andre Smith (elbow), WR Brandon Tate (illness), G Kevin Zeitler (elbow)


BUFFALO BILLS


--Out: WR Marcus Easley (shoulder), RB Karlos Williams (concussion), RB Cierre Wood (knee)


--Questionable: WR Percy Harvin (hip), QB Tyrod Taylor (knee), WR Sammy Watkins (calf)


--Probable: CB Ron Brooks (thumb), TE Charles Clay (calf), DT Marcell Dareus (hip), T Cordy Glenn (ankle), WR Chris Hogan (hamstring), LB Randell Johnson (hand), T Cyrus Kouandjio (knee), RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring), G John Miller (groin), S Bacarri Rambo (quadricep)


DENVER BRONCOS at CLEVELAND BROWNS


DENVER BRONCOS


--Out: T Ty Sambrailo (shoulder), LB DeMarcus Ware (back)


--Questionable: G Evan Mathis (hamstring), CB Aqib Talib (ankle), WR Demaryius Thomas (neck), RB Juwan Thompson (hamstring)


--Probable: DE Kenny Anunike (knee), CB Omar Bolden (foot), TE Owen Daniels (not injury related), WR Bennie Fowler (hamstring), T Ryan Harris (knee), WR Cody Latimer (groin), QB Peyton Manning (not injury related), G Louis Vasquez (not injury related)


CLEVELAND BROWNS


--Out: S Tashaun Gipson (ankle), CB Joe Haden (concussion, finger), LB Craig Robertson (ankle)


--Questionable: DE Desmond Bryant (shoulder), RB Isaiah Crowell (toe), LB Karlos Dansby (ankle), RB Shaun Draughn (back), WR Marlon Moore (hamstring), RB Robert Turbin (ankle)


--Probable: WR Brian Hartline (thigh), QB Johnny Manziel (right elbow), QB Josh McCown (ankle), T Mitchell Schwartz (thumb)


HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS


HOUSTON TEXANS


--Out: LB Jadeveon Clowney (ankle), S Quintin Demps (hamstring), WR Nate Washington (hamstring)


--Questionable: RB Alfred Blue (toe), DE Jared Crick (knee), LB Brian Peters (hamstring), WR Jaelen Strong (illness)


--Probable: G Oday Aboushi (toe), S Lonnie Ballentine (knee), CB A.J. Bouye (illness), T Duane Brown (hand), LB Brian Cushing (ankle), LB Akeem Dent (hamstring), TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (neck), RB Arian Foster (groin), RB Jonathan Grimes (hamstring), CB Kareem Jackson (not injury related), T Derek Newton (knee), RB Chris Polk (knee), WR Cecil Shorts (shoulder)


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS


--Out: WR Marqise Lee (hamstring), RB Bernard Pierce (concussion, hamstring)


--Doubtful: S James Sample (shoulder)


--Questionable: RB T.J. Yeldon (groin)


--Probable: QB Blake Bortles (shoulder), C Luke Bowanko (neck), DE Chris Clemons (not injury related), CB Aaron Colvin (shoulder), CB Davon House (hip), WR Allen Hurns (ankle, thigh), DT Abry Jones (knee), DT Sen'Derrick Marks (knee), T Jermey Parnell (knee), LB Paul Posluszny (ankle), RB Denard Robinson (knee), TE Julius Thomas (hand), T Sam Young (illness)


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS


--Out: LB Joshua Mauga (groin, Achilles), DT Dontari Poe (ankle)


--Questionable: LB Tamba Hali (knee)


--Probable: CB Jamell Fleming (elbow), TE Travis Kelce (groin, neck), TE James O'Shaughnessy (hand), TE Brian Parker (finger)


MINNESOTA VIKINGS


--Out: DE Justin Trattou (foot)


--Questionable: WR Charles Johnson (rib), S Andrew Sendejo (knee)


--Probable: TE Rhett Ellison (knee), CB Jabari Price (shoulder), WR Mike Wallace (knee), WR Jarius Wright (shoulder)


MIAMI DOLPHINS at TENNESSEE TITANS


MIAMI DOLPHINS


--Questionable: T Branden Albert (hamstring), DT A.J. Francis (back), CB Brent Grimes (knee)


--Probable: CB Zackary Bowman (shoulder), LB Chris McCain (shoulder), TE Dion Sims (concussion), DE Cameron Wake (hamstring)


TENNESSEE TITANS


--Out: LB Deiontrez Mount (knee)


--Questionable: CB Perrish Cox (hamstring), TE Anthony Fasano (concussion), DT Sammie Lee Hill (illness, knee), LB Avery Williamson (hamstring)


--Probable: TE Chase Coffman (not injury related), S Michael Griffin (not injury related), T Taylor Lewan (shoulder), CB Cody Riggs (knee), G Chance Warmack (knee)


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS


--Out: T King Dunlap (concussion), CB Craig Mager (hamstring), DE Darius Philon (hip, thigh), C Chris Watt (groin, concussion), LB Tourek Williams (foot)


--Doubtful: WR Stevie Johnson (hamstring)


--Questionable: G D.J. Fluker (ankle), G Orlando Franklin (ankle), T Chris Hairston (ankle), LB Manti Te'o (ankle)


--Probable: LB Kyle Emanuel (shoulder)


GREEN BAY PACKERS


--Doubtful: LB Nick Perry (shoulder, hand), DT B.J. Raji (groin)


--Questionable: WR Davante Adams (ankle), S Morgan Burnett (calf), CB Ladarius Gunter (heel)


--Probable: T Bryan Bulaga (knee), WR Randall Cobb (shoulder), CB Demetri Goodson (hamstring), WR James Jones (hamstring), G T.J. Lang (knee), LB Jake Ryan (hamstring)


WASHINGTON REDSKINS at NEW YORK JETS


WASHINGTON REDSKINS


--Out: CB Chris Culliver (knee), CB DeAngelo Hall (toe), C Kory Lichtensteiger (shoulder, finger, neck), TE Jordan Reed (concussion), T Trent Williams (neck, concussion)


--Questionable: WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), RB Matt Jones (toe), DE Stephen Paea (back), WR Andre Roberts (quadricep)


--Probable: CB Bashaud Breeland (shoulder), WR Pierre Garcon (knee), DE Kedric Golston (hand), C Josh LeRibeus (calf), G Spencer Long (knee), LB Perry Riley (calf), RB Chris Thompson (shoulder)


NEW YORK JETS


--Doubtful: S Jaiquawn Jarrett (knee), WR Chris Owusu (knee), CB Marcus Williams (hamstring)


--Questionable: G Willie Colon (knee), LB David Harris (quadricep), RB Bilal Powell (groin)


--Probable: S Dion Bailey (elbow), LB Quinton Coples (elbow), CB Antonio Cromartie (groin, not injury related), TE Jeff Cumberland (concussion), WR Eric Decker (knee), RB Chris Ivory (quadricep), LB Jamari Lattimore (concussion), S Calvin Pryor (knee), CB Darrin Walls (hamstring), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (ribs), DE Leonard Williams (ankle)


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS on Sunday night


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS


--Out: CB Tarell Brown (foot)


--Questionable: DE Trey Flowers (knee, shoulder), LB Dont'a Hightower (ribs), RB Dion Lewis (abdomen)


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS


--Questionable: LB Jerrell Freeman (groin), LB Nate Irving (knee), QB Andrew Luck (right shoulder)


--Probable: LB Trent Cole (back), WR T.Y. Hilton (groin), LB Bjoern Werner (hamstring), DT Billy Winn (eye)

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 6
October 17, 2015




Even though bettors saw totals go 7-7 last week, some of the outcomes were rewarding for some and very tough to stomach for others.


The infamous “Bad Beats” in Week 5 started early on Thursday as the Colts and Texans watched the first-half (20) go ‘over’ with a Hail Mary touchdown. While that was tough ‘under’ to lose, so was the Saints-Eagles outcome on Sunday, which was a 10-7 game at halftime. Those having the ‘over’ in that game can thank New Orleans QB Drew Brees for looking to pad his stats while trailing 32-10. Right after handing seven points to the Eagles from an interception, he decided to run hurry-up and tack on a meaningless score at the end with no time left. Final score 39-17 and the ‘over’ (49.5) connects.


Bettors chasing the ‘over’ in the second half last weekend watched the ‘over’ go 10-4 in Week 5, three of those winners coming in the primetime games.


After five weeks of action, we’re still locked in an ‘over/under’ stalemate (38-38-1) through 77 games.


System Oversight


The Jaguars and Buccaneers were the easiest ‘over’ on Sunday and I posted the ‘under’ in my Fearless Predictions. A few solid users notified me that Jacksonville was playing its third straight road game, which played into a solid total angle that I should’ve followed more closely.


You play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game


Unfortunately I overlooked the angle this season while putting together last week’s installment. Including Sunday’s result this angle has produced a record of 38-17-1 (69%) over the last 11 seasons.


There are three more pending matchups this season and I’ll be sure to remind you of each week:


Week 10 – Miami at Philadelphia
Week 13 – Buffalo at Kansas City
Week 15 – Atlanta at Jacksonville


Off the Bye


New England and Tennessee were both off the bye last week and each team put up a great defensive effort, which helped the ‘under’ cash in each game. For Week 6, we have four teams playing with rest and I’m not sure if it’s a coincidence but two of them are the lowest numbers on the board.


Carolina at Seattle (41)
Miami at Tennessee (43)
Minnesota vs. Kansas City (44)
N.Y. Jets vs. Washington (40.5)


Six Shooters?


The Browns and Cardinals have both seen all their first five games go ‘over’ the number this season and they’ll look to keep those streaks rolling this weekend.


Cleveland vs. Denver: Last regular season, Cleveland went 11-5 to the ‘under’ while Denver was a solid ‘over’ lean, going 10-6. The tides have turned for both teams with the Browns playing to shootouts while the Broncos have been better on defense (15.8 PPG) than offense (22.6 PPG). Cleveland’s offense has been better than expected but this is a serious step up in class for the unit. When the Browns played a comparable unit in Week 1, the Jets held them to 10 points. I believe the Broncos will ground and pound the Browns on both sides of the ball and have this clock running all day. The pair met in Denver in 2012 and the Broncos blasted the Browns 34-12 as the ‘over’ (44) barely connected.


Arizona at Pittsburgh: This total is hovering around 44 ½ points and I believe this game will fall right around this numbers. The Cardinals are facing the travel factor in this game but Bruce Arians team has averaged 28.3 PPG in its last six games in Eastern or Central time zones. And if you take two games last year without QB Carson Palmer, that average goes to 35.8 PPG. Without Big Ben at QB, it’s hard to lean on past trends with the Steelers. However, Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 9-2 in its last 11 games versus the NFC. Make a note that the ‘under’ is 2-0 with games Michael Vick started and 3-0 if you include the outcome versus the Rams when Roethlisberger left early.


Divisional Battles


Chicago at Detroit: Bettors are looking at a total of 44 points for this game and the last three encounters between this pair at Ford Field have all gone ‘over’ the number with Detroit scoring 24, 40 and 34 points. The Lions have struggled offensively this season and are ranked 30th in PPG (16.6) and 26th in yards per game (321 YPG). The Bears have seen the ‘under’ cash in three straight and have scored 18 points in two road games this season.


Houston at Jacksonville: The last three seasons, we’ve seen the ‘over/under’ produce a 1-1 mark in this matchup. Last season, both games ended with a combined 40 points. This week’s total is 43 and this game does fit into the Thursday Night Total System since Houston played at home on Thursday in Week 5. That angle is 2-2 this season and facing a 0-3 run in this spot.


N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: (See Below)


Non-Conference Affairs


Total bettors saw a stalemate (2-2) in the AFC-NFC matchups last week and all of the results were clear-cut. After 20 games played, the ‘under’ is 13-7 (65%). We have five non-conference games scheduled for Week 6.


Kansas City at Minnesota
Washington at N.Y. Jets
Arizona at Pittsburgh
San Diego at Green Bay
Baltimore at San Francisco


Under the Lights


This past Thursday’s total between the Saints and Falcons hit the middle as the line opened 51 and closed 52 ½. It wasn’t easy but those savvy bettors who played both ways were fortunate to get a late score from the Falcons and make the final score 31-21. Based on closing numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 11-6 (64%) in primetime games this season and the best result thus far has been the ‘under’ (5-1) in MNF games.


New England at Indianapolis: This is the highest total (55) on the board and bettors should make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 6-1 this season with games listed in the fifties. Not to mention, the lone ‘over’ was the Giants-Cowboys fortunate result in Week 1. This series has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games and New England has been a machine in the last four (47 PPG). If Luck doesn’t go Sunday, the Colts will do everything they can to shorten this game. That will be very difficult to do against the Patriots, especially when you’ve been outgained in every game this season. New England is receiving a ton of attention this week and most will be chasing Patriots-Over on Sunday and we all know that if it looks that easy, it’s usually not.


N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: This total opened 50 and dropped to 49 earlier this week but has creeped back up to 50 and 50 ½ as of Saturday. Since Chip Kelly arrived, he’s beaten the Giants three of four times and the two games played in Philadelphia were clear-cut ‘under’ winners. New York has gone 3-2 to the ‘over’ this season but a couple of those tickets were helped with second-half surges. On the other hand, Philadelphia is 4-1 to the ‘under’ and it could be 5-0 if last week’s game didn’t get a late punch. Both teams have been sound against the run and the Giants offense is still dealing with key injuries on the outside.


Fearless Predictions


When it rains it pours and that was the case last week. Both total players were clear-cut losers and while I can complain about the Rams leaving points off the board, that’s gambling. Fortunately, the teaser saved us a little face but the deficit was $230 in Week 5 and the bankroll is down on the season ($30). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Chicago-Detroit 44
Best Under: Baltimore-San Francisco 44
Best Team Total: Under 17 Washington


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under Baltimore-San Francisco 53
Under Kansas City-Minnesota 52 ½
Under Washington-N.Y. Jets 49 ½

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
October 17, 2015




NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Vikings are 10-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since September 2014 after a game where they allowed fewer points than expected.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Lions are 0-11 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since November 24, 2011 after allowing at least seven points more than expected.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The 49ers are 0-9-1 OU (-8.0 ppg) since Oct 06, 2013 at home after a game in which Anquan Boldin had at least 5 receptions.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Ravens are 0-11 OU (-8.9 ppg) since 2007 after a home game where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Lions are 11-0 OU (13.0 ppg) since September 30, 2007 at home after throwing for at least 300 yards as an underdog last game.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- Since Ron Rivera became their coach in 2011, the Panthers are 12-0 OU as a dog of more than six points -- hence the nickname Riverboat Ron.


NFL ATS SYSTEM:


-- Teams which allowed at least a 72 yard run last game are 58-41-1 ATS. Active on Minnesota.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 6
October 17, 2015


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4 · Week 5




Through five weeks of the season, the Top 5 Consensus Picks have gone 17-7-1 (71%) in the SuperContest.


Week 6


1) New England (849)


2) Arizona (768)


3) Minnesota (547)


4) Buffalo (470)


5) Detroit (412)






SUPERCONTEST WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS


Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


Atlanta (-3.5) 150 New Orleans (+3.5) 117


Denver (-4.5) 331 Cleveland (+4.5) 353


Cincinnati (-3.5) 309 Buffalo (+3.5) 470


Kansas City (+4) 193 Minnesota (-4) 547


Houston (PK) 201 Jacksonville (PK) 195


Chicago (+3) 121 Detroit (-3) 412


Washington (+6) 248 N.Y. Jets (-6) 361


Arizona (-3) 768 Pittsburgh (+3) 120


Miami (+2) 404 Tennessee (-2) 163


Carolina (+7) 325 Seattle (-7) 267


San Diego (+10.5) 285 Green Bay (-10.5) 204


Baltimore (-2.5) 160 San Francisco (+2.5) 236


New England (-7.5) 849 Indianapolis (+7.5) 152


N.Y. Giants (+4.5) 384 Philadelphia (-4.5) 240

 

[CNOTES]

Week 6 Tip Sheet
October 17, 2015




Chiefs at Vikings (-4, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


It seems like it’s been forever since Kansas City has won a game, as the Chiefs look for their first victory since opening day. Andy Reid’s club has dropped four in a row since winning at Houston, including two losses to NFC foes Green Bay and Chicago. Last week’s home loss to the Bears especially stung, as Kansas City gave away a 17-6 lead in an 18-17 defeat as 10-point favorites, but what hurt even worse was losing star running back Jamaal Charles to a season-ending knee injury. The Chiefs actually put up their best defensive effort of the season against Chicago, stopping a three-game streak of allowing at least 31 points, while cashing its first ‘under’ following four straight ‘overs.’


The Vikings are fresh off the bye week, as Minnesota couldn’t quite complete the comeback from a 13-point deficit two weeks ago in a 23-20 defeat at Denver as seven-point underdogs. Minnesota owns the worst passing game in the league from a yardage standpoint (165 yards a game), but has picked up a pair of double-digit victories at home against Detroit and San Diego. The Vikings own a perfect 4-0 mark to the ‘under,’ while winning six of their last seven games at TCF Bank Stadium since last November.


Broncos (-4, 42 ½) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST


Denver is the only team in the league to pick up three road wins so far, as the Broncos will be halfway done with their away slate after this Sunday. The Broncos go for a 6-0 start, coming off last Sunday’s 16-10 triumph at Oakland, barely covering as five-point favorites, aided by an interception return for a score by Chris Harris, the third defensive touchdown for Denver this season. Denver has won all six meetings against Cleveland since the Browns re-entered the league in 1999, while making its first trip to Northern Ohio since 2008.


The Browns are seeking their first two-game winning streak of the season after rallying past the rival Ravens in overtime, 33-30. Josh McCown torched Baltimore’s defense for 457 yards and two touchdowns, as the Browns improved to 7-2 ATS as a road underdog since the start of 2014. Cleveland has lost four of its past five home games since last November with the lone victory in this span coming against Tennessee in Week 2 by a 28-14 count. The Browns are one of two teams in the league (Cardinals) that has yet to register an ‘under,’ going 5-0 to the ‘over’ through five weeks.


Redskins at Jets (-6, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


The Jets return to the field following a bye week, as New York has won all three of its games by double-digits. The last time the Jets took the field in London, New York destroyed Miami, 27-14 as 2 ½-point favorites, while outgaining the Dolphins by nearly 200 yards as Chris Ivory rushed for 166 yards and a touchdown. The Jets own the league’s second-best defense, yielding 280.3 yards per game, while giving up 14 points or less in all three victories. New York has struggled against NFC foes the last few seasons, going winless in their last six tries, including three straight home losses.


The Redskins have alternated wins and losses through the first five weeks, coming off a crushing overtime loss at Atlanta, allowing an interception return for a score in a 25-19 setback as 7 ½-point underdogs. Washington has covered three of the past four games since failing to cash in the season-opening loss to Miami, as Jay Gruden’s club has given up 20 points or less in regulation four times. The Redskins have dropped six of their last nine against AFC opponents since 2013, including double-digit losses at Houston and Indianapolis last season.


Panthers at Seahawks (-7, 40 ½) – 4:05 PM EST


Seattle knocked out Carolina in the divisional playoffs last season, 31-14 to cash as 13 ½-point favorites and eventually advance to the Super Bowl. Through five weeks, the Panthers have the upper-hand over the Seahawks in the NFC as Carolina is rolling at 4-0, while Seattle has stumbled to a 2-3 mark after squandering a 17-point fourth quarter lead in a 27-24 overtime loss at Cincinnati last Sunday. The Seahawks are expected to get running back Marshawn Lynch back in the lineup after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. Seattle has allowed just 10 points in two home victories over Chicago and Detroit, while owning a 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 games at CenturyLink Field.


The Panthers may be 4-0, but they haven’t exactly been tested so far, facing the Jaguars, Texans, Saints, and Buccaneers, who own a combined record of 6-15. Carolina is listed as an underdog for the first time this season, while going 6-6 ATS in this role last season. The Panthers have struggled with the Seahawks the last few seasons, dropping five straight meetings since 2010, while scoring 12 points or less three times with Cam Newton at quarterback.


Chargers at Packers (-10 ½, 50 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


San Diego is traveling east for the third time this season, already losing twice at Cincinnati and Minnesota. The Chargers have a sour taste in their mouths after falling on the final play of Monday night’s 24-20 setback to the Steelers. The Lightning Bolts have been horrible against the number of late, failing to cover the last four weeks since holding off the Lions in Week 1, while scoring 20 points or less in all three losses. San Diego is listed as a double-digit underdog for the first time since Week 15 of 2013 when the Chargers handed Peyton Manning his last regular season home loss in a 27-20 triumph.


The Packers haven’t done much wrong this season, winning and covering all five games, including three victories at Lambeau Field by 10 points or more. Green Bay held off St. Louis last Sunday, 24-10, as the Rams missed three field goals, while Aaron Rodgers was intercepted twice. However, the Packers’ defense picked off Nick Foles four times, including returning one for a touchdown to help cash as 8 ½-point favorites. The last time Rodgers lost at home to an AFC opponent came in 2010, falling in overtime to the Dolphins, 23-20.

 

[CNOTES]

Redskins WR DeSean Jackson out
October 17, 2015


ASHBURN, Va. (AP) The Washington Redskins have downgraded wide receiver DeSean Jackson to out against the New York Jets on Sunday because of a left hamstring injury.


The Redskins initially had indicated there was a chance that Jackson might be able to play, but they announced on Saturday he didn't travel with the team to face the Jets.


Jackson hurt his hamstring during Washington's first game this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL ATS


NFL > (251) DENVER@ (252) CLEVELAND | 2015-10-18 13:00:00 - 2015-10-18 13:00:00
Play ON DENVER against the spread in games played on a grass field
The record is 9 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)


NFL > (269) SAN DIEGO@ (270) GREEN BAY | 2015-10-18 16:25:00 - 2015-10-18 16:25:00
Play ON GREEN BAY against the spread when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)


NFL > (265) MIAMI@ (266) TENNESSEE | 2015-10-18 13:00:00 - 2015-10-18 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 2 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-10.1 units)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL MONEYLINE


NFL > (253) CINCINNATI@ (254) BUFFALO | 2015-10-18 13:00:00 - 2015-10-18 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using money line against AFC East division opponents
The record is 12 Wins and 35 Losses for the since 1992 (-33.75 units)

NFL > (257) HOUSTON@ (258) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-10-18 13:00:00 - 2015-10-18 13:00:00
Play AGAINST HOUSTON using money line in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
The record is 5 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-18.5 units)


NFL > (273) NEW ENGLAND@ (274) INDIANAPOLIS | 2015-10-18 20:30:00 - 2015-10-18 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line against AFC South division opponents
The record is 27 Wins and 7 Losses for the since 1992 (+20.9 units)


NFL > (265) MIAMI@ (266) TENNESSEE | 2015-10-18 13:00:00 - 2015-10-18 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in home games
The record is 4 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-15.65 units)


NFL > (275) NY GIANTS@ (276) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-10-19 20:30:00 - 2015-10-19 20:30:00
Play ON NY GIANTS using money line after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 36 Wins and 21 Losses for the since 1992 (+29.3 units)


NFL > (269) SAN DIEGO@ (270) GREEN BAY | 2015-10-18 16:25:00 - 2015-10-18 16:25:00
Play ON GREEN BAY using money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 113 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (+55.1 units)


NFL > (263) ARIZONA@ (264) PITTSBURGH | 2015-10-18 13:00:00 - 2015-10-18 13:00:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in October games
The record is 35 Wins and 8 Losses for the since 1992 (+22.95 units)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL FIRST HALF




NFL > (263) ARIZONA@ (264) PITTSBURGH | 2015-10-18 13:00:00 - 2015-10-18 13:00:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH ?>in the first half in weeks 5 through 9
The record is 33 Wins and 12 Losses for the since 1992 (+19.8 units)


NFL > (269) SAN DIEGO@ (270) GREEN BAY | 2015-10-18 16:25:00 - 2015-10-18 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO ?>in the first half versus the 1rst half line in road games
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)