Cnotes National Football League Week # 17 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[CNOTES]

Preview: Steelers (9-6) at Browns (3-12)
Date: January 03, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

After their playoff chances suffered a colossal hit against a struggling rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers have to avoid making that mistake two weeks in a row.


No longer in control of their destiny, the visiting Steelers look to do their part to reach the postseason by recording their 28th victory in 32 meetings with the woeful Cleveland Browns on Sunday.


Pittsburgh needed a road victory over Baltimore and a loss by the New York Jets to New England last weekend to secure a postseason berth for the second straight season.


Stunningly, neither happened. The Steelers (9-6) had their 10-game December winning streak snapped in a 20-17 loss to the injury-ravaged Ravens and the Jets upset the Patriots in overtime to move into the sixth and final seed in the AFC playoff chase.


Pittsburgh now needs to win at Cleveland and have Buffalo upset New York to reach the playoffs for second straight season and sixth time in coach Mike Tomlin's nine years.


"We just have to put all of our focus on this game and control what we are able to control," tight end Heath Miller told the team's official website. "That is going to Cleveland and trying to get a win versus the Browns and see what happens there. We just have to put all of our efforts into this game."


Ben Roethlisberger will have to lead that charge after he threw for 215 yards and two interceptions last Sunday, posting a 62.7 rating that's his second-lowest of the season. He has been turnover prone with five picks in his last three.


The four-time Pro Bowler has thrown five interceptions in his last four meetings with Cleveland, though the Steelers are 19-2 in the series when Roethlisberger has played. He's thrown 28 touchdowns and 10 picks in his last 17 against the Browns.


Roethlisberger came on in relief of Landry Jones against Cleveland on Nov. 15, going 22 of 33 for 379 yards with three scores and one interception in a 30-9 home win. Antonio Brown had 10 catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 31 receptions for 460 yards and three scores in his last four matchups.


DeAngelo Williams was a bright spot last weekend with 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He'll face a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in the NFL with 26.9 points allowed per game and last with 135.0 rushing yards allowed.


'It's less about the nameless gray faces that we play this week that happen to be the Browns,' said Tomlin, whose team has lost seven of its past 11 against sub-.500 opponents. "It's more about us getting rightly focused and getting back on track."


After scoring 13 points each time in consecutive losses at Seattle and Kansas City, the Browns (3-12) have dropped 17 of 20. That's led to further speculation this week that coach Mike Pettine might not be back for a third season.


'I have a job to do, and the job is to prepare this team as well as I can to play the Pittsburgh Steelers,' Pettine said. 'I don't get caught up in that.'


Embattled quarterback Johnny Manziel's future is also uncertain. He went 13 of 32 for 136 yards and one interception last Sunday, though he rushed for 108 yards - the most by a quarterback in team history - in nearly leading a comeback victory.


Manziel, however, will almost certainly not play against the Steelers after entering the league's concussion protocol Wednesday. He complained of concussion-like symptoms this week, and because it typically takes several days for symptoms to subside, it's highly unlikely Manziel will be cleared in time to play Sunday.


Austin Davis would get the nod instead. He went 25 of 38 for 230 yards and an interception in a 37-3 home loss to Cincinnati on Dec. 6.


The Steelers have struggled against the pass, ranking 30th with 278.2 yards allowed per game. They're tied for fourth with 41 sacks, but only three have come in the past two games.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Jaguars (5-10) at Texans (8-7)
Date: January 03, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

A revolving-door situation at quarterback hasn't kept the Houston Texans from reaching the cusp of an AFC South title.


They'll turn back to a healthy Brian Hoyer in hopes of securing a playoff berth in Sunday's regular-season finale against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that will have some needed stability heading into 2016.


Houston (8-7) has withstood injuries and inconsistency at the game's most important position to put itself in range for its first division crown since going back-to-back in 2011 and '12. The Texans are almost assured of completing the task regardless of Sunday's outcome, with Indianapolis needing to defeat Tennessee and receive help from several other teams to advance on a strength of victory tiebreaker if Houston loses.


The Texans have overcome a 1-4 start with resiliency and defensive dominance, both of which were again factors in their latest triumph. Brandon Weeden threw two touchdowns and ran for another in Hoyer's place, while Houston held Tennessee to 257 total yards and forced four turnovers in last week's 34-6 rout.


Weeden, claimed off waivers from Dallas last month, became the fourth Houston quarterback to win a game this season. He finished a pivotal 16-10 victory at Indianapolis the previous week when T.J. Yates tore his ACL in the first half.


The Texans limited the Colts to 190 yards that day and are yielding an NFL-low 269.0 and 13.5 points per game over the team's 6-2 stretch.


"I'm very proud of this team," coach Bill O'Brien said. "I really believe it's all about the players. The players have done a good job turning this thing around and putting us in position to be in this position, obviously."


Hoyer had done his part before missing the last two weeks with a concussion. The well-traveled veteran has a career-high 18 touchdown passes against six interceptions and hasn't turned it over more than once over his last seven starts.


O'Brien announced Wednesday that Hoyer would start after successfully passing the NFL's concussion protocol.


'I thought he practiced really well last week ... he ran the (scout) team, did some things on the side and (Wednesday) I thought he looked really sharp,' O'Brien said. 'Again, it all depends on how it looks on Sunday obviously, but I think he's looked good, he's got good command of our offense and what we're doing, and the ball seems like it's coming out of his hand real well.'


Jacksonville (5-10) appears to have found a solution to its longstanding quarterback problems with Blake Bortles' breakout sophomore campaign. The 23-year-old ranks second in the league with a franchise-record 35 touchdown passes and sits 179 yards shy of breaking Mark Brunell's team season mark of 4,367 yards set in 1996.


The Jaguars' five wins are their most since 2011 and earned Gus Bradley a fourth season, with owner Shad Khan announcing Tuesday that the head coach will be retained for 2016.


"It's evident to see how far we've come in many aspects of our game, and Gus deserves a lot of credit for that progress," Khan said in a statement. "It's also evident the considerable work that remains to be done to be where we expect to be at this time next season, which is well above where we stand today. And Gus understands that."


Those expectations have been raised by Bortles' progression and the emergence of second-year receivers Allen Robinson (75 catches, 1,292 yards) and Allen Hurns (61 catches, 1,013 yards). Robinson's 14 TD catches are tied for the league lead and he's had at least one in five straight games, while Hurns has 10 after recording two along with 107 yards on eight receptions in last week's 38-27 loss at New Orleans.


The trio will be challenged by a Houston defense that's held opposing quarterbacks to a 73.5 passer rating over the last eight games and intercepted Bortles three times in a 31-20 win at Jacksonville on Oct. 18.


Hoyer threw for 293 yards and three touchdowns, including two to DeAndre Hopkins in the fourth quarter that rallied the Texans from a 14-10 deficit. Hopkins, third in the NFL with 1,432 receiving yards, finished with 148 on 10 catches in Houston's third straight win in the series.


The Texans have won four straight division games after losing to Indianapolis in Week 5, while Jacksonville has lost six straight on the road to AFC South foes since a 13-6 decision at Houston on Nov. 24, 2013.


The Jaguars are 1-6 on the road and have dropped 15 of 16 as the visitor.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Chargers (4-11) at Broncos (11-4)
Date: January 03, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

There can't be many times in NFL history that the pregame focus will be on a backup quarterback.


That'll be the case Sunday as the playoff-bound Denver Broncos try to clinch the AFC West crown behind Brock Osweiler, whose backup will be Peyton Manning for this home matchup with the San Diego Chargers.


Manning will finally be back in uniform after missing the last six games because of a torn plantar fascia in his left foot. He returned to practice Wednesday after he last worked out with his teammates on Dec. 17, doing 7-on-7 drills and running the scout team before a setback that week delayed his recovery.


Wednesday marked Manning's first full practice since Nov. 13.


'I'm happy to be more of a part of it now than just being in street clothes and kind of quarantined in the indoor facility and working out on my own,' he said.


Coach Gary Kubiak said Manning will get some work with the starters but Osweiler will get the bulk of it this week. Manning has never served as a backup in his NFL career.


"He (Manning) just needs to get back in the groove with the action with the team," Kubiak said.


Manning, who still leads the NFL with 17 interceptions in nine games, also once again addressed Al Jazeera's report last weekend that suggested he obtained HGH through his wife from an Indianapolis anti-aging clinic where he received post-operative treatment in 2011.


'The report wasn't true Sunday. It's not true today and it won't ever be true,' Manning said. 'And I'm still angry about it."


One reason Manning probably isn't starting is because Osweiler has thrown for eight TDs to three interceptions in his six-game stint as the starter. Osweiler completed 27 of 39 passes for 299 yards with one TD to guide the Broncos (11-4) to their critical 20-17 overtime victory over AFC North champion Cincinnati on Monday.


He didn't sound concerned that a five-time league MVP will be carrying a clipboard on the Denver sideline.


'I'm not really going to think about who the backup is this week,' Osweiler said. 'My focus is 100 percent on the Chargers defense and doing whatever I can to prepare to go win a football game."


Osweiler's heroics moved Denver one win away from not only the division title but also a first-round bye, which would give Manning another week to get ready.


The Broncos will clinch the division with a victory or a loss by Kansas City to Oakland. They must win to gain the first-round bye unless the Chiefs and Bengals both lose Sunday.


Denver also still has a shot at the AFC's top seed, needing a win and New England to lose at Miami.


Osweiler has found some chemistry with Owen Daniels, who had five catches for 70 yards last week after the quarterback didn't target Vernon Davis. He'll also look to find Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, the 10th tandem in Denver history to each amass 1,000 yards.


One concern is linebacker Brandon Marshall's ankle injury from Monday. Marshall, who has a team-high 101 total tackles for a top-rated defense yielding an average of 280.9 yards, did not practice Wednesday.


Marshall will play if he is available since the Broncos are intent on winning the division and not having to settle for a wild-card berth.


"We're all in on San Diego," Kubiak said. "We need to win this football game and it's a big game for our team and so we'll approach it that away."


The Chargers (4-11) are 1-6 on the road and one of three winless teams in division play. The story surrounding them is mostly about whether the franchise will stay put in the city as opposed to anything on the field.


San Diego, which has not played since last Thursday's 23-20 overtime loss at Oakland, will finish with its worst record since going 4-12 in 2003. This is its second losing season in the last 12.


"Shoot, we'd like to finish it with a win," quarterback Philip Rivers said. "Shoot, it's been a tough year, to say the least, (but) have a chance to go to Denver and hopefully win our first division game and finish the season with a win (that) will send us into reload and offseason mode in a decent mood."


Rivers needs 239 yards passing to break the team's single-season mark held by Hall of Famer Dan Fouts, who threw for 4,802 yards in 1981.


The Chargers have lost eight of their last nine to the Broncos, including one playoff defeat and a 17-3 loss Dec. 6. In that defensive battle, Osweiler threw for 166 yards - his lowest total as a starter - while Rivers was sacked four times and had a season-low 57.1 passer rating.


Speculation is also swirling around the status of third-year San Diego coach Mike McCoy, Manning's former offensive coordinator with the Broncos. The Chargers insist they will be motivated.


"In my mind, it's let's not let Denver play another home game this year," Rivers said. "Let's make this be their last home game, let's find a way to do that. We know obviously what the game means to them and what the atmosphere is going to be like."

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Raiders (7-8) at Chiefs (10-5)
Date: January 03, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

Many lost faith in the Kansas City Chiefs after they dropped five of their first six games during a miserable start that also including losing star running back Jamaal Charles for the season.


After all, no team in 45 years had qualified for the playoffs after starting 1-5.


Now on the verge of a franchise-record 10th consecutive victory, the Chiefs are heading to the postseason and have a shot at the AFC West title with a win over visiting Oakland as Charles Woodson plays his final game for the Raiders on Sunday.


Kansas City (10-5) locked up a playoff berth with last week's 17-13 win over Cleveland, and a victory over the Raiders (7-8) coupled with a Denver loss to San Diego would give the Chiefs their first division crown since 2010, the AFC's third seed and a home game in the wild-card round.


Not bad for a team that won its opener before dropping the next five. Charles tore his ACL in an 18-17 loss to Chicago in Week 5, but Charcandrick West has averaged 90 yards from scrimmage and scored five touchdowns in the eight games since.


Jeremy Maclin is heading to the Pro Bowl in his first season with the Chiefs, catching 84 passes - one short of his career high set last season with Philadelphia - for 1,034 yards and seven touchdowns. Kansas City didn't throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all of last season.


Maclin has caught a TD in four of the last five games for the Chiefs, who joined the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals as the only teams in NFL history to make the playoffs after a 1-5 start.


'It seems like every week we look back at the film and I felt like I could have gone Jeremy's way more,' quarterback Alex Smith said. "He consistently wins. Even when they try to take him away, he consistently wins. He's that type of player.'


Not everything is going their way, though. Justin Houston hasn't played in the last four because of a hyperextended knee, and fellow Pro Bowl linebacker Tamba Hali missed the Browns game with a broken finger.


With both out last week, the Chiefs failed to record a sack for the first time since a Week 4 loss to Cincinnati. Houston and Hali have combined for 14 of Kansas City's 41 sacks that are tied for fourth-most in the league.


'I mean, you're talking about two Pro Bowl guys, best rushers in the NFL, on the same team,' linebacker Derrick Johnson said. 'When they get back, that's a plus. But it's always the next man up."


Coach Andy Reid maintained that both are considered day to day with a chance they play against Oakland.


"We'll see how that goes. They've both been rehabbing and working hard," Reid said. "They were both driving me crazy on the sideline (in practice) like they wanted to be in there. We'll see."


The biggest remaining question for the Raiders is whether or not they'll move to Los Angeles after the season. They haven't made the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl in 2002, although an 8-8 campaign could be considered a success after winning 11 games over the previous three years combined.


Second-year quarterback Derek Carr has emerged with 31 touchdowns passes and hooked up with Michael Crabtree for an eighth TD in last Thursday's 23-20 overtime win over San Diego.


The result was especially thrilling for Woodson, who played for the last time in Oakland after announcing he'll retire after the season.


'Charles is one of the greatest players to ever put on a uniform,' coach Jack Del Rio said. 'He's a great Raider. To be able to send him out the right way, to be able to cap off a special evening like this, our last home game of the year ... I'm just really proud of the effort.'


Oakland will face another tough challenge in the last game of Woodson's career, and it'll do so without the services of fullback Marcel Reece, who will serve the first of a four-game suspension.


Reece, who was selected for his fourth straight Pro Bowl but will be ineligible to compete, received the penalty for violating the league's substance abuse policy.


'He's a part of what we do, but it's not like we're taking out 50, or 60 or 70 percent of our offense when we remove him," Del Rio said. "We'll get the next guy up and be ready to roll.'


The Chiefs have won four of the last five meetings, including a 34-20 victory in Week 13 as Maclin caught a pair of touchdown passes. Carr had two TDs but also threw a career-high three interceptions.


Oakland has lost the last two meetings in Kansas City after winning the previous six.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Seahawks (9-6) at Cardinals (13-2)
Date: January 03, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

While the Arizona Cardinals will have all hands on deck to try and close a historic regular season on a high note, the Seattle Seahawks hope to regain momentum for the postseason following a flat performance.


The Cardinals won't rest anyone they have available for Sunday's regular-season finale as they go for the NFC's top playoff seed against the visiting Seahawks.


Arizona (13-2) has set a franchise record for wins in a season and can match another from 1948 with its 10th straight victory. The Cardinals already locked up the No. 2 playoff seed and a first-round bye, but with a win and a Carolina loss, the NFC side of the bracket would go through Glendale.


Carolina suffered its first loss at Atlanta in Week 16 and hosts Tampa Bay on Sunday.


'I don't think you get anything out of resting guys, especially playing a team that's in our division and we haven't beaten them at home in a couple of years,' Arizona coach Bruce Arians said. 'We don't want to start a precedent now.'


Arians is 2-3 against Seattle in his three years on the Cardinals sideline, including losses in the last two meetings in Arizona. Seattle won the NFC West the last two seasons on the way to consecutive Super Bowl appearances.


Besides looking to sweep the Seahawks (9-6) for the first time since 2009, the Cardinals could send a message in a preview of a possible playoff matchup.


'Got a lot of momentum going our way, and every time you go out there and you're playing good football like we are, you want to keep it going,' defensive end Calais Campbell said. 'I definitely circled that game on the calendar.'


Arizona leads the NFL in total offense (6,301 yards) and is fifth in total defense (4,793). The Cardinals are the only team with more touchdowns (57) than punts (55). Seattle's defense has held opponents to averages of 12.3 points and 216 total yards in the last four games.


The Cardinals clinched a first-round bye with last week's 38-8 rout of Green Bay, posting maybe their best defensive performance of the season. Arizona had nine sacks, returned two fumbles for touchdowns, held the Packers to 178 total yards and forced four turnovers for the second straight week.


'I thought we played better in Seattle,' Arians said.


That was a 39-32 win Nov. 15 that gave the Cardinals a commanding three-game division lead and washed away the thought that their 6-2 start was buoyed by easy competition.


Carson Palmer threw for 363 yards and three touchdowns, and Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd combined for 243 receiving yards and two scores. The defense recorded a safety, interception, two sacks and seven pass deflections in a hostile Seattle environment.


That was the last game that Marshawn Lynch played due to an abdominal injury that later required surgery, and he will miss his seventh straight game this weekend. Coach Pete Carroll said Wednesday he hopes Lynch will be able to rejoin the team next week and be available for the playoffs.


In the meantime, the Seahawks are left with a makeshift running back corps. They rattled off five straight wins without Lynch, clinching a wild-card spot in the process, but backup Thomas Rawls was lost for the season in Week 14 with a broken ankle. Seattle still buried lowly Cleveland 30-13 without a true workhorse back on Dec. 20, but the hole in the backfield was felt in last week's 23-17 loss to St. Louis.


Christine Michael and Bryce Brown, each signed following Rawls' injury, combined for 15 yards on 13 carries. The Seahawks finished with 60 yards rushing, their lowest total since October 2013 and first time failing to reach 100 since Week 6 of last season.


'When we run the ball for 60 yards we're not on it,' Carroll said. 'We're in bad shape at the line of scrimmage and we have to do a lot better than that.'


Russell Wilson lost a fumble and threw an interception for his first turnovers since the Arizona game, and the Seahawks committed 10 penalties while costing themselves control of the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs. If Seattle wins and Minnesota loses at Green Bay on Sunday, the Seahawks would reclaim that spot. With a loss, they are ensured of playing on the road through the playoffs.


The Seahawks had a first-round bye each of the past two seasons and only played away from home in the two Super Bowls.


'We're banking on that we have built up a pretty good process in how we do it,' Carroll said. 'We're going to have to go back to back, maybe to back, to do something really special.'


After opening the season 2-3 on the road, Seattle has won three straight. Arizona is 6-1 at home.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Buccaneers (6-9) at Panthers (14-1)
Date: January 03, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

The saddest 14-1 football team you'll ever see trudged through a week of practice after its bid for an undefeated regular season came to an end.


If the Carolina Panthers can't regroup, they could miss out on home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, too.


A home win over reeling Tampa Bay on Sunday would guarantee Carolina the No. 1 seed and send the Buccaneers to a record-setting fifth consecutive last-place finish in the NFC South.


The Panthers not only suffered their first defeat last week, their 20-13 loss at Atlanta put even more significance on the matchup with Tampa Bay (6-9). Coach Ron Rivera no longer has the option of resting players with Carolina needing a win to remove any question of it securing the top seed.


A loss and an Arizona victory over Seattle would put both clubs at 14-2, but the Cardinals would hold the tiebreaker with an 11-1 record in NFC play compared to the Panthers' 10-2 mark.


It's not as if Carolina will be scoreboard-watching, though. It can't finish any worse than the No. 2 seed and will host a divisional playoff game in two weeks no matter how things turn out Sunday.


'You find out what you are made of,' Rivera said. 'It's really how you handle the adversity. We talk about the character in the locker room all of the time. ... Well, how do we handle this and how we grow from it? Those are all important things. We will be tested. This is a very interesting week.


'Our goal is to win the Super Bowl. That's the vision. That's the destination. But we still have to take the journey. This is a bump in that journey.'


Cam Newton won't have last week's game on any of his highlight reels. The MVP candidate went 17 of 30 for 142 yards and failed to throw a touchdown pass after tossing 13 in his previous three.


He also lost a fumble on the final drive with Carolina having a chance to at least send it to overtime.


'There are no magic words that need to be said,' Newton said Sunday. 'We don't wave a magic wand or anything like that. We got our (butt) kicked, and to a degree we deserved it. Offensively, defensively, and special teams - I'm talking with a mirror in front of my face.


"We are 14-1 right now. We put ourselves in the situation where we can use this as fuel.'


The Panthers could be considered lucky that the Bucs didn't deal them a loss in Week 4. Though Tampa Bay fell 37-23, it held Carolina to a season-low 244 yards, and Newton's 124 passing yards represent his lowest total this year.


He had 51 rushing to account for one more yard than Jonathan Stewart, who hasn't played in the last two because of a foot injury. If the Panthers had beaten the Falcons, Rivera likely would've held Stewart out of this contest as well to rest up for the playoffs.


However, Fozzy Whittaker isn't expected to play because of an ankle injury, meaning Stewart could be forced into action given the importance of the contest.


The Bucs are trying to avoid becoming the first NFC team since the 1970 merger to finish last in its division for five consecutive years. They've lost three straight and are coming off a 26-21 home defeat to Chicago.


Tampa Bay committed three turnovers, tying their highest total since a season-worst five cost them in the first meeting with Carolina. Doug Martin fumbled twice after losing three fumbles in the first 14.


'It's disappointing to say the least. We know what's happened the last three games, but we have one more opportunity,' coach Lovie Smith said. 'I think as we leave, you're going to remember the last thing that happened. We're playing one of the best teams in football. We get one more chance to make a lot of these things look a lot better than they do right now."


There are some positives. Martin, who had 106 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, is second in the NFL in rushing with 1,354 yards. He has an outside shot to win the title with a big game and a poor effort from leader Adrian Peterson.


Jameis Winston has had a solid rookie year with 22 touchdown passes and five more rushing, helping Tampa match its victory total from the previous two seasons combined.


Mike Evans' touchdowns are down from 12 to three, but he's had no sophomore slump while exceeding his 2014 totals in receptions (70 to 68) and yards (1,107-1,051).


Vincent Jackson had season highs of 10 catches and 147 yards with a touchdown grab against the Panthers, but he won't play for the sixth time this year because of a knee injury.


Carolina is seeking a sixth straight victory over the Bucs.


"Obviously they have a lot to play for, to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs," Tampa Bay safety Keith Tandy said. "We're going to get their best shot. Every time we play, the score doesn't always show up, but it's always a physical game. We know how that game will be."

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Buccaneers (6-9) at Panthers (14-1)
Date: January 03, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

The saddest 14-1 football team you'll ever see trudged through a week of practice after its bid for an undefeated regular season came to an end.




If the Carolina Panthers can't regroup, they could miss out on home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, too.


A home win over reeling Tampa Bay on Sunday would guarantee Carolina the No. 1 seed and send the Buccaneers to a record-setting fifth consecutive last-place finish in the NFC South.


The Panthers not only suffered their first defeat last week, their 20-13 loss at Atlanta put even more significance on the matchup with Tampa Bay (6-9). Coach Ron Rivera no longer has the option of resting players with Carolina needing a win to remove any question of it securing the top seed.


A loss and an Arizona victory over Seattle would put both clubs at 14-2, but the Cardinals would hold the tiebreaker with an 11-1 record in NFC play compared to the Panthers' 10-2 mark.


It's not as if Carolina will be scoreboard-watching, though. It can't finish any worse than the No. 2 seed and will host a divisional playoff game in two weeks no matter how things turn out Sunday.


'You find out what you are made of,' Rivera said. 'It's really how you handle the adversity. We talk about the character in the locker room all of the time. ... Well, how do we handle this and how we grow from it? Those are all important things. We will be tested. This is a very interesting week.


'Our goal is to win the Super Bowl. That's the vision. That's the destination. But we still have to take the journey. This is a bump in that journey.'


Cam Newton won't have last week's game on any of his highlight reels. The MVP candidate went 17 of 30 for 142 yards and failed to throw a touchdown pass after tossing 13 in his previous three.


He also lost a fumble on the final drive with Carolina having a chance to at least send it to overtime.


'There are no magic words that need to be said,' Newton said Sunday. 'We don't wave a magic wand or anything like that. We got our (butt) kicked, and to a degree we deserved it. Offensively, defensively, and special teams - I'm talking with a mirror in front of my face.


"We are 14-1 right now. We put ourselves in the situation where we can use this as fuel.'


The Panthers could be considered lucky that the Bucs didn't deal them a loss in Week 4. Though Tampa Bay fell 37-23, it held Carolina to a season-low 244 yards, and Newton's 124 passing yards represent his lowest total this year.


He had 51 rushing to account for one more yard than Jonathan Stewart, who hasn't played in the last two because of a foot injury. If the Panthers had beaten the Falcons, Rivera likely would've held Stewart out of this contest as well to rest up for the playoffs.


However, Fozzy Whittaker isn't expected to play because of an ankle injury, meaning Stewart could be forced into action given the importance of the contest.


The Bucs are trying to avoid becoming the first NFC team since the 1970 merger to finish last in its division for five consecutive years. They've lost three straight and are coming off a 26-21 home defeat to Chicago.


Tampa Bay committed three turnovers, tying their highest total since a season-worst five cost them in the first meeting with Carolina. Doug Martin fumbled twice after losing three fumbles in the first 14.


'It's disappointing to say the least. We know what's happened the last three games, but we have one more opportunity,' coach Lovie Smith said. 'I think as we leave, you're going to remember the last thing that happened. We're playing one of the best teams in football. We get one more chance to make a lot of these things look a lot better than they do right now."


There are some positives. Martin, who had 106 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, is second in the NFL in rushing with 1,354 yards. He has an outside shot to win the title with a big game and a poor effort from leader Adrian Peterson.


Jameis Winston has had a solid rookie year with 22 touchdown passes and five more rushing, helping Tampa match its victory total from the previous two seasons combined.


Mike Evans' touchdowns are down from 12 to three, but he's had no sophomore slump while exceeding his 2014 totals in receptions (70 to 68) and yards (1,107-1,051).


Vincent Jackson had season highs of 10 catches and 147 yards with a touchdown grab against the Panthers, but he won't play for the sixth time this year because of a knee injury.


Carolina is seeking a sixth straight victory over the Bucs.


"Obviously they have a lot to play for, to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs," Tampa Bay safety Keith Tandy said. "We're going to get their best shot. Every time we play, the score doesn't always show up, but it's always a physical game. We know how that game will be."

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Rams (7-8) at 49ers (4-11)
Date: January 03, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

Two of the worst offenses in the NFL are experiencing contrasting finishes to the season.


The St. Louis Rams have finally found a rhythm and will seek their fourth straight victory when they visit the inept San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.


St. Louis (7-8) averaged 10.8 points during a five-game losing streak that stretched into Week 13, plummeting to second-to-last in the NFL in scoring ahead of only San Francisco. However, the Rams have shown offensive potential during a three-game winning streak, including last week's 23-17 upset of division rival Seattle that snapped a four-game skid on the road.


St. Louis has scored more than 20 points in three consecutive games for the first time this season, drawing a chance to finish with a .500 record for the first time since 2006. The Rams can also win four straight for the first time since posting seven consecutive victories in 2003.


"I'm certainly by no means satisfied with it, but 8-8 is better than 7-9," coach Jeff Fisher told the team's official website.


The bitterness relayed through Fisher's comment might be linked to St. Louis' 11th straight season missing the playoffs, the last four under him. The five-game skid led to the firing of offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti and knocked the Rams out of postseason contention.


Fisher hand-picked Cignetti this offseason to take over an offense that averaged 20.2 points in his first three years as coach. It didn't wake up, though, until Cignetti was gone and Case Keenum pulled the quarterbacking duties away from the struggling Nick Foles - a prized offseason acquisition.


Keenum has completed 67.7 percent of his passes on St. Louis' winning streak with three touchdowns against one interception and a passer rating of 98.9, well above Foles' mark of 69.0 this season. The Rams have jumped out to double-digit leads in the first quarter of their last two wins behind Keenum's 154.4 passer rating, behind only Denver's Brock Osweiler (156.3) during that time.


The re-emergence of rookie Todd Gurley has also helped. Gurley, third in the league with 1,108 rushing yards, averaged just 42.8 from Weeks 10-13 while running for two touchdowns. He has four scores in the last three games while averaging 91.0 rushing yards.


The Rams are in position to finish 5-1 against the NFC West for what would be their best division record since posting the same mark in 2004, also the last year they swept the 49ers. San Francisco, which lost 27-6 in St. Louis on Nov. 1 as Gurley ran for 133 yards and a touchdown, is in danger of going winless in divisional play for the first time since 1978.


The 49ers (4-11) remain the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL at 14.6 points per game, two spots below St. Louis (17.6). San Francisco is also tied for the fewest touchdowns (23) and ranks second-to-last with 240 first downs, only ahead of St. Louis' 220. The only two teams to average fewer than 300 yards are the 49ers (293.5) and Rams (293.3).


San Francisco has lost three games in a row and five of six, the latest a lethargic 32-17 defeat at Detroit last week. The 49ers are guaranteed their first losing season since 2010, and a loss in the finale would give them their worst record since finishing 4-12 in 2005.


'Where we're at, the way I see it, we're definitely on a one-week calendar, in terms of this team, and where we're going, and what we're doing, and preparing to win a game,' first-year coach Jim Tomsula said. 'But to me, in that itself, we're building. Building week to week and the way you prepare and the way you work, and what you've got to have done, and where you need to be when you show up on game day.'


Anquan Boldin could be playing his final game in a 49ers uniform. Boldin, who became the 13th player in NFL history with 1,000 receptions last week, will finish as San Francisco's leading receiver for the third time in as many seasons since joining the team but is set to become a free agent.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Vikings (10-5) at Packers (10-5)
Date: January 03, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Just because the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers have clinched playoff spots and can't earn a first-round bye doesn't mean they won't be desperately trying to finish the regular season with a victory.


The Vikings badly want to win the NFC North and end the four-year reign of the Packers, who may be as interested in showing everyone they can be a legitimate threat in the playoffs by putting forth a strong all-around performance.


They've rarely had one in recent weeks but did put one together six weeks ago to beat Minnesota, a team which would love to make Sunday night's matchup the time to finally end its victory drought in Green Bay.


'I kind of figured that the last game would always mean something with the Packers,' Vikings cornerback Captain Munnerlyn said.


This game closes the NFL regular season, and all the others that take place earlier don't really mean much to the Packers or Vikings. Bottom line, the winner claims the division crown and the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs. The loser will be the No. 5 seed unless Seattle defeats Arizona on Sunday and Minnesota loses to fall to No. 6, forcing a trip back to Lambeau next week to begin the playoffs.


"We can't let the game become too big," said quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who will make his first start at Lambeau. "We know that we're playing for a lot right now. But at the same time, we just have to go out there and be ourselves. You don't have to do anything extra, put any 'S's on our chest or capes on our back. Just have to do our job and do our job well."


The Vikings have been doing a much better job than the Packers lately even though both enter with 10-5 records. Minnesota has routed Chicago and the New York Giants by a combined 53 points after nearly winning at Arizona, losing 23-20 on a late field goal to the NFC West champions.


Green Bay was no match for the Cardinals last week in a 38-8 loss, committing four turnovers and getting held to 178 total yards.


'We played the worst we can possibly play, and we're on to Minnesota,' receiver James Jones said.


The once-vaunted Packers offense continues to look a bit off.


Aaron Rodgers is playing behind a battered offensive line and was sacked eight times last week, having two fumbles returned for touchdowns. He's been sacked an NFL-high 30 times since Week 8 as the Packers have gone 4-5, posting an 82.0 passer rating after having a 115.9 mark during their 6-0 start.


Rodgers has topped 220 yards passing once in the past six games.


'We are professionals. We have to hold ourselves to a higher standard and play better," Rodgers said. "Everybody has to play better."


His season-worst completion percentage of 47.1 (16 of 34) came at Minnesota in Week 11, but he threw TD passes to Jones and Randall Cobb as the Packers rolled to a 30-13 win. Bridgewater was sacked six times and Adrian Peterson was held to 45 yards on 13 carries.


'I'm going to talk to them about the things we didn't do good in the last ballgame (against Green Bay), and the things we have to improve on in order to win,' coach Mike Zimmer said.


The Vikings are 1-10-1 in the past 12 meetings, including a playoff loss after the 2012 season. Including that game, Minnesota is 0-5-1 at Lambeau since last winning there in 2009 - when Brett Favre quarterbacked the Vikings.


That's also the last year in which Minnesota won the North.


"A team we haven't beaten in the two years that I've been here, that coach Zimmer's been here," Bridgewater said. "It's a team that's capable of getting hot at this time of year."


Green Bay's defense hasn't been, allowing more than 370 total yards to both Oakland and Arizona. That unit has yielded 100-plus yards rushing in five straight games and now faces Peterson, who is 64 yards ahead of Tampa Bay's Doug Martin in the race for his third rushing title.


'I have faith in the football team regardless of what happened (in Arizona),' Packers coach Mike McCarthy said.


Cobb has hardly been a factor in the past four weeks, totaling 165 receiving yards without a touchdown, and the run game has been inconsistent. Eddie Lacy rushed for 100 yards at Minnesota and topped that mark in two of the next three games but has only 83 over the last two.


'It takes all 11 to have success. It starts from a protection unit, to a route-running detail, to catching the football. It's everyone, coaches included,' offensive coordinator Edgar Bennett said.


Rodgers has won 10 of 11 against the Vikings regardless of location or playoffs with a 120.1 passer rating, throwing for 28 touchdowns and three interceptions. Lacy has rushed for 534 yards and five TDs in five career meetings.


The Vikings have won eight straight when Peterson rushes for 100 yards, a streak that dates back to a 26-26 tie at Lambeau on Nov. 24, 2013 - a game Rodgers missed.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL ATS


NFL > (329) ST LOUIS@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-11 units)


NFL > (317) TENNESSEE@ (318) INDIANAPOLIS | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 18 Losses for the last two seasons (-16.8 units)


NFL > (317) TENNESSEE@ (318) INDIANAPOLIS | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-9.9 units)


NFL > (307) BALTIMORE@ (308) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in all lined games
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+9.8 units)

NFL > (307) BALTIMORE@ (308) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in all games
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+9.8 units)

NFL > (325) MINNESOTA@ (326) GREEN BAY | 2016-01-03 20:30:00 - 2016-01-03 20:30:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 28 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+18.1 units)


NFL > (307) BALTIMORE@ (308) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+7.9 units)

NFL > (321) DETROIT@ (322) CHICAGO | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST DETROIT against the spread in Road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 7 Wins and 25 Losses for the since 1992 (-20.5 units) [/B]


NFL > (325) MINNESOTA@ (326) GREEN BAY | 2016-01-03 20:30:00 - 2016-01-03 20:30:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 15 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.7 units)


NFL > (329) ST LOUIS@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)


NFL > (305) NEW ENGLAND@ (306) MIAMI | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI against the spread in All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

NFL > (327) SAN DIEGO@ (328) DENVER | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play ON DENVER against the spread in All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 17 Wins and 4 Losses for the since 1992 (+12.6 units)


------------------------


NFL MONEYLINE


NFL > (303) TAMPA BAY@ (304) CAROLINA | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games in all lined games
The record is 14 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+12.6 units)


NFL > (303) TAMPA BAY@ (304) CAROLINA | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in all games
The record is 14 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+12.6 units)


NFL > (319) WASHINGTON@ (320) DALLAS | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST DALLAS using money line in Home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 17 Wins and 23 Losses for the since 1992 (-37.8 units)


NFL > (331) SEATTLE@ (332) ARIZONA | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games where the money line is +130 to -150
The record is 15 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.8 units)


NFL > (325) MINNESOTA@ (326) GREEN BAY | 2016-01-03 20:30:00 - 2016-01-03 20:30:00
Play ON GREEN BAY using money line in Home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 42 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+31.65 units)


NFL > (329) ST LOUIS@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.45 units)


NFL > (317) TENNESSEE@ (318) INDIANAPOLIS | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using money line in All games versus division opponents
The record is 15 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.05 units)

NFL > (331) SEATTLE@ (332) ARIZONA | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.9 units)


NFL > (321) DETROIT@ (322) CHICAGO | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CHICAGO using money line in Home games in games played on a grass field
The record is 3 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (-13.1 units)


NFL > (309) NEW ORLEANS@ (310) ATLANTA | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 8 Wins and 13 Losses for the last two seasons (-18.9 units)


NFL > (325) MINNESOTA@ (326) GREEN BAY | 2016-01-03 20:30:00 - 2016-01-03 20:30:00
Play ON GREEN BAY using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 42 Wins and 10 Losses for the since 1992 (+27.65 units)


-----------------------


NFL FIRST HALF


NFL > (331) SEATTLE@ (332) ARIZONA | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SEATTLE ?>in the first halfin Road games in January games
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the since 1992 (-11 units)


NFL > (323) PHILADELPHIA@ (324) NY GIANTS | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST PHILADELPHIA ?>in the first halfin All games against conference opponents
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the this season (-10 units)


NFL > (321) DETROIT@ (322) CHICAGO | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST DETROIT ?>in the first halfin Road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 7 Wins and 27 Losses for the since 1992 (-22.7 units)

NFL > (307) BALTIMORE@ (308) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (-8.9 units)


NFL > (301) NY JETS@ (302) BUFFALO | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NY JETS ?>in the first halfin All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 4 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-13.6 units)

NFL > (305) NEW ENGLAND@ (306) MIAMI | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI ?>in the first halfin All games versus division opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.4 units)


NFL > (329) ST LOUIS@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 11 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)


-----------------------


NFL TOTALS


NFL > (327) SAN DIEGO@ (328) DENVER | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play UNDER SAN DIEGO on the totalin All games revenging a loss against opponent
The record is 1 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+11.9 units)


NFL > (313) PITTSBURGH@ (314) CLEVELAND | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+9 units)


NFL > (309) NEW ORLEANS@ (310) ATLANTA | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games in all lined games
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the this season (+10.8 units)


NFL > (309) NEW ORLEANS@ (310) ATLANTA | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in all games
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the this season (+10.8 units)


NFL > (331) SEATTLE@ (332) ARIZONA | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the totalin Road games off a division game
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)


NFL > (309) NEW ORLEANS@ (310) ATLANTA | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games against conference opponents
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the this season (+8.9 units)


NFL > (309) NEW ORLEANS@ (310) ATLANTA | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)


NFL > (331) SEATTLE@ (332) ARIZONA | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the totalin All games versus the 1rst half line in road games
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)


NFL > (329) ST LOUIS@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the totalin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.9 units)

NFL > (321) DETROIT@ (322) CHICAGO | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Overs and 15 Unders for the last three seasons (+11.7 units)


NFL > (313) PITTSBURGH@ (314) CLEVELAND | 2016-01-03 13:00:00 - 2016-01-03 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)


NFL > (331) SEATTLE@ (332) ARIZONA | 2016-01-03 16:25:00 - 2016-01-03 16:25:00
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the totalin All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (10 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 8) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NY JETS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (6 - 9) at CAROLINA (14 - 1) - 1/3/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 79-45 ATS (+29.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 53-27 ATS (+23.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 5-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (12 - 3) at MIAMI (5 - 10) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 172-131 ATS (+27.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MIAMI is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (5 - 10) at CINCINNATI (11 - 4) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
CINCINNATI is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (6 - 9) at ATLANTA (8 - 7) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (5 - 10) at HOUSTON (8 - 7) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (9 - 6) at CLEVELAND (3 - 12) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (7 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 5) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (3 - 12) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 8) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (8 - 7) at DALLAS (4 - 11) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (6 - 9) at CHICAGO (6 - 9) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (6 - 9) at NY GIANTS (6 - 9) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (10 - 5) at GREEN BAY (10 - 5) - 1/3/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 11) at DENVER (11 - 4) - 1/3/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DENVER is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (7 - 8) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 11) - 1/3/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 108-147 ATS (-53.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 116-149 ATS (-47.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (9 - 6) at ARIZONA (13 - 2) - 1/3/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Buffalo: 12-4 UNDER as an underdog

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 4:25 ET
Tampa Bay: 35-16 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more
Carolina: 8-2 ATS in games played on a grass field

New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 8-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Miami: 2-8 ATS as an underdog

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 26-11 UNDER in the last 2 weeks of the regular season
Cincinnati: 8-2 ATS as a favorite

New Orleans at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 62-41 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 9-6 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 1-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 96-67 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5
Cleveland: 21-39 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Oakland at Kansas City, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 29-54 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
Kansas City: 13-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 3-10 ATS revenging a loss against opponent
Indianapolis: 6-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Washington at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Washington: 5-3 ATS off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog
Dallas: 1-5 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Chicago: 73-48 OVER as a home favorite

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 11-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses
New York: 19-8 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points

Minnesota at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Minnesota: 11-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Green Bay: 35-18 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points

San Diego at Denver, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 81-57 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 9-21 ATS at home after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 games

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 0-7 ATS in road games off a division game
San Francisco: 6-0 UNDER in home games after a loss by 14 or more points

Seattle at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 7-0 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Arizona: 9-22 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 3-21 SU in its last 24 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Jets are 8-17 SU in their last 25 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Tennessee is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

4:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis

4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
San Diego is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Diego
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Minnesota's last 16 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Jets (10-5) @ Bills (7-8)-- Jets make playoffs with a win, but they've lost five of last six games with Buffalo, losing last three visits here by 19-23-35 points. Jets lost at home to Bills 22-17 (-2.5) in Week 10, thanks to -4 turnover ratio that included a TD on a fumbled kick return. Jets are +18 in turnovers in their wins, -13 in losses; they won/covered last five games, including OT win over Patriots LW. Jets lost three of five true road games (played "at" Giants, vs Miami in London); they're 6-5 as faves, 1-2 on road. Buffalo lost four of last six games but has won three in row at home, by 16-9-10 points; they're 3-2-1 as underdogs, 1-1 t home. Five of last seven Jet games stayed under total.

Buccaneers (6-9) @ Panthers (14-1)-- Carolina lost first game LW, has next week off thanks to its bye; unsure how many starters they'll rest here. Panthers (-3) scored two defensive TDs in 37-23 (-3) win at Tampa Bay in Week 4, its 7th win in last nine game vs Bucs, who have lost five of last seven visits here, last two by 19-2 points. Tampa lost four of its last five games (-7 turnover ratio); they're 4-3 as road dogs, but lost 25-12/31-23 in last two road games. Bucs' defense has one takeaway in its last five games. Carolina gave up 30+ points in three of last four games; they're 4-2 as home faves- four of their last five games were on road. Six of last nine Carolina games went over the total.

Patriots (12-3) @ Dolphins (5-10)-- New England is 2-3 in last five games after 10-0 start; they need win here for bye next week, home field thru AFC playoffs. Patriots (-8) pounded Miami 36-7 back in Week 8, outgaining Fish 437-270 in game that was 19-0 at half. Dolphins lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread), losing its last three games by 7-16-6 points- they're 2-4 at home, losing by 27-10-7-6 points. Now the wife of a defensive player is ripping QB Taneyhill on Twitter- not good. Home side won last six series games; Patriots lost 24-20/33-20 in last two visits here- they are 9-2 in last 11 series games overall. Under is 5-2 in last seven Miami games, 1-4 in last four Patriot games.

Ravens (5-10) @ Bengals (11-4)-- McCarron sprained left wrist Monday nite on last play, is expected to play; Bengals could still get bye next week, so they need to win this game, against team they beat 28-24 (+2.5) in Week 3. Bengals led 14-0 at half, averaged 10.9 ypa, had 15-yard edge in field position. Ravens lost five of last six in series, losing last three visits here by 6-17-3 points. Baltimore got boost from new QB Mallett LW, 4th QB they started in last six games. Ravens covered last three on road; their only two SU road wins were division games at Pitt/Cleveland. Under is 7-2 in last nine Bengal games, 4-2-1 in last seven Baltimore games. Bengals lost two of last three at home, but are 4-2-1 as home favorites.

Saints (6-9) @ Falcons (8-7)-- Atlanta won last two games, allowing 15 ppg but 1-7 skid doomed their season, a skid that started with 31-21 (-3) loss to Saints at home in Week 6, when Falcons lost three fumbles and had punt blocked for TD. Saints are 15-5 in last 20 games in this rivalry, 6-3 in last nine visits here; they've allowed 43 TD passes this year, three more than any team, ever. NO is 2-5 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog- they won two of last three games, covered three of last four. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Saint games, 0-9 in Falcons' last nine. Falcons failed to cover seven games in row as a favorite- they're 1-4 as home favorites. Atlanta converted 15 of 29 on third down in last two games. This is an underrated rivalry game.

Jaguars (5-10) @ Texans (8-7)-- Houston makes playoffs unless nine things happen Sunday; they've won six of last eight games after a 2-5 start, winning last two with #5 QB Weeden playing (33-54/352 in two games). Texans (+2) won 31-20 in Week 6 at Jacksonville, picking off three passes (+3) one of which was run back for TD. Jax lost four of last five games, are 4-3 as road underdogs. Texans are 3-3 as favorites this year; they ran ball for 283 yards last two weeks- they're +10 in turnovers in last ten games, after being -8 in first five games. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 1-7 in last eight Houston games. Jags lost four of last five visits here; last three were all decided by 7 or less points. Hoyer is healthy again, will start at QB for Texans.

Steelers (9-6) @ Browns (3-12)-- Pitt needs win here and Bills win to make playoffs; they beat Browns 30-9 (-4.5) in Week 10, throwing for 399 yards (10.5 yp) in game that was 21-3 at half. Steelers are 27-5 vs Cleveland, but lost two of last three here; they lost three of last four road games, are 5-2 as favorite this year, 1-1 on foreign soil. Browns lost nine of last ten games, covered two of last three; they covered once in last seven games as an underdog- their only recent win was 24-10 vs 49ers. Browns have two TDs on 25 drives last three losses, by 34-17-4 points. Four of last five Steeler games went over total; six of last seven Cleveland games stayed under. Manziel is in concussion protocol; Austin Davis likely to start at QB for Browns.

Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5)-- KC is in playoffs, can still win AFC West, Oakland has shot for a .500 season- this is a big rivalry. Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 vs spread) after 1-5 start- they're 2-4 as home favorites- failing to cover last two home games despite allowing one TD on 18 drives. Raiders are 4-0 as road dogs, losing away games by 2-3-5 points (4-3SU). Four of Chiefs' last five home games stayed under total. Chiefs (-3) won 34-20 at Oakland in Week 13, picking off three passes in 4th quarter that led to TD drives of 13-2 yards as well as a defensive TD. Chiefs won four of last five series games, winning 24-7/31-13 in last two here-- Raiders had won six in row at Arrowhead before Reid became Chiefs' coach.

Titans (3-12) @ Colts (7-8)-- Indy still has (small) shot at division title, they signed Freeman/Lindley off street Monday, but Hasselbeck says he feels better and could start. Colts (-3) won 35-33 at Tennessee in Week 3, scoring a defensive TD- they're 13-1 last 14 series games, winning last eight in row. Titans lost last seven visits to Indy, with five of seven losses by 8+ pts. Tennessee lost six of last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they're 2-4 as underdogs on road, losing last three on foreign soil by 6-22-17 points. Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Titan games, 4-2 in last six Indy games. Indy was outscored 85-6 in second half of its last four games. I cannot think of one good reason to wager on this game.

Redskins (8-7) @ Cowboys (4-11)-- Washington is locked into #4 seed/home field in playoff game next week; will they rest starters? Dallas is 1-10 in games started by backup QBs- Moore makes second career start here. Cowboys scored 9.7 ppg in losing last three games since 19-16 (+3.5) win in Maryland four weeks ago, winning despite losing three fumbles (-2), converting 1-9 on third down. Redskins won two of last three visits here, won/covered last three weeks, scoring 73 points in last two games. Washington won last two road games after losing first five; they're 3-4 as a road underdog. Dallas hasn't won a home game since Opening Night. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 1-6 in last seven Dallas games.

Lions (6-9) @ Bears (6-9)-- Detroit got first win of year in Week 6, beating Bears in OT, 37-34; Lions outgained Bears 546-444, were -2 in turnovers, won despite losing field position by 15 yards- both teams scored in last 0:21 of regulation. Detroit won five of seven games since 1-7 start; they scored 67 points in last two games, with eight TDs on last 20 drives. Lions are 1-9 vs spread when they allow more than 17 points. Chicago lost three of last four games; they're 1-6 at home, losing last four- their only home win was 22-20 over Raiders in Week 4. Detroit won last five series games, winning 21-19/20-14 in last two visits here. Four of last five Detroit games, last four Chicago games went over total.

Eagles (6-9) @ Giants (6-9)-- Philly fired Kelly Monday; Lord knows how players will react here, with Giants coach Coughlin also on hot seat. Philly (-4) won 27-7 in first meeting in Week 6, running for 155 yards- they're 12-3 in last 15 games against Giants, winning seven of last eight played here. Both teams were eliminated when Redskins won last week; Eagles beat Jets 24-17 on this field in Week 3- they're 3-4 on road, beating Patriots in last road game. Giants lost five of last six games, giving up 87 points last two weeks; Big Blue lost last three home games by total of seven points. Five of last six Philly games, last three Giant games went over total. Giants have only three takeaways (-7) in last five games.

More Armadillo to come....

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Vikings (10-5) @ Packers (10-5)-- Winner takes NFC North title, gets home tilt in playoffs next week. Green Bay (+1) won first meeting 30-13 in Twin Cities; they're 10-1-1 in last dozen series games, 5-0-1 in last six played here- four of five wins were by 9+ points. Minnesota scored 87 points in winning last two games; they're 12-3 vs spread this year, covering last six on road- they're 5-1 as an underdog. Green Bay was crushed in Arizona LW; Rodgers was sacked nine times in Pack's first loss in four games- they're 4-3 as home favorite this year. Three of last four Viking games went over total; five of last seven Packer games stayed under. Lows for this game expected to be in mid-teens.

Chargers (4-11) @ Broncos (11-4)-- Denver needs win for division title if KC won its 1:00 game, home field/bye either way. Broncos (-6) beat Chargers 17-3 four weeks ago, scoring a defensive TD and holding Bolts to 272 yards, in its 8th win in last nine series games. Chargers split last four visits here, losing by 7-14 points. San Diego has been out of it for long time but they covered four of last five games- they're still competing. Chargers are covered their last five road games. Denver rallied from 14-0 down LW to beat Bengals and stay in first place; they're 1-4 as home favorites. Under is 6-1 in last seven San Diego games, 3-1 in last four Bronco games. Manning will be Denver's backup QB.

Rams (7-8) @ 49ers (4-11)-- Both teams are out of it but this is rivalry; St Louis won 27-6 (-8) in first meeting, outrushing Niners 197-38, holding SF to 3.4 ypa. Rams are 1-1-1 in last three visits here, 4-10-1 in last 15 overall but they're now better team. St Louis won its last three games, scoring 25 ppg after five-game that ruined their season- their win/cover LW was their first in six outdoor tilts this year. 49ers lost last three games by 14-10-15 points; they're 3-4 at home, with all four losses to top teams. SF is 4-3 as home underdog- they were dog in every game this season. Under is 9-2 in Rams' last 11 games, 6-3 in 49ers' last nine games. This is Rams' first game on grass since October 11.

Seahawks (9-6) @ Cardinals (13-2)-- Arizona won its last nine games (5-4 vs spread); only games they lost this year they were -3 in turnovers both games. Cardinals (+3) won 39-32 at Seattle in Week 10, despite turning ball over three times (-2)- they converted 8-17 on third down. Redbirds are 3-4 as favorites at home- they scored three defensive TDs in last two games. Seattle had 5-game win streak snapped LW; they've 4-2 in last six games with Arizona, winning 34-22/35-6 in last two visits here- their last four series wins were by 12+ pts. Seattle can move up to #5 seed and face Redskins instead of Packers/Vikings next week. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack


Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 17 upon us..........


-- Tennessee is 7-21-2 vs spread in last 30 games as an underdog.


-- Chicago covered twice in its last ten home games.


-- Miami covered once in its last nine games.


-- 49ers covered once in their last eleven divisional games.


-- Chiefs covered seven of their last nine games.


-- Minnesota covered its last six road games.

 

[CNOTES]

Public Fades - Week 17
December 31, 2015


The final week of the NFL regular season is here as all six playoff spots in the NFC have been spoken for. The last postseason berth is still up in the air in the AFC between the Steelers and Jets, while the Patriots are looking to wrap up home-field advantage with a victory at Miami. Plenty of games involve teams not headed to the playoffs, with the biggest story centering around the firing of head coach Chip Kelly in Philadelphia.


In this week’s edition of “Public Fades,” we’ll focus on going against the Patriots and Giants.


Patriots (-10 ½, 47) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST


New England suffered an embarrassing loss last week, even though they fell in overtime to the Jets, 26-20. Bill Belichick’s decision to kick off to start overtime in spite of winning the coin toss went under much scrutiny around the country as the Patriots could have clinched home-field advantage by beating New York. Instead, they left the door open for Denver, who rallied past Cincinnati on Monday night to move within one game of New England for the top spot in the AFC, as the Broncos own the tie-breaker over the Patriots.

The Dolphins are just waiting for this disastrous season to end following their third straight loss last Sunday, falling to the Colts, 18-12 at home. Miami’s offense has scored 20 points or less in eight of the last nine games since putting up 44 on the Texans in late October, while posting a 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS record the previous nine contests. The Dolphins have won each of the past two home meetings with the Patriots, but lost a 36-7 decision at Foxboro two months ago in their first matchup this season.


So why back the Dolphins?


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson points out that the Patriots’ offense has taken a dip the last few games, “New England has some of the best offensive numbers in the league, but the numbers have slipped in recent weeks with just over 25 points per game the last six weeks with the team going 3-3 in that span. New England has been handed defensive touchdowns each of the past two games to boost those numbers as well. After scoring 28 or more points in each of the first seven games of the season, New England has hit that mark just twice since. New England is just 2-4-1 ATS in the last seven games and they were pretty fortunate to cover against Tennessee in Week 15 as this is a not a team that will enter the playoffs playing its best.”


Nelson says that the Dolphins have some strong numbers going in their favor, “Miami has failed to cover in each of the last six games, sitting at 4-11 ATS on the season, but that creates a huge spread that is currently three points higher than the number when New England hosted Miami in October. Since December of 2009, NFL double-digit road favorites are on a 6-22 ATS run and Miami has won two of the last five home games with none of the losses coming by more than 10 points.”

Eagles at Giants (-3 ½, 51 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


The tumultuous three-year run of Chip Kelly on the Philadelphia sidelines is over with, even though there is still one game remaining on the schedule. The Eagles managed a pair of 10-6 records in Kelly’s first two seasons, but a 6-9 mark in 2015 to go along with running several key offensive weapons out of town prior to the season sealed his fate. Philadelphia is coming off a pair of double-digit home losses to division champions Arizona and Washington the last two weeks, while losing five of seven games down the stretch.


Things haven’t been much better for the Giants, who own the exact same record as their division rivals at 6-9. New York threw away five games when leading in the fourth quarter, as this team is likely in the playoffs if they won even two of those contests. Odell Beckham, Jr. returns from his one-game suspension for the Giants, who were blown out at Minnesota last Sunday night, 49-17, as the New York defense has allowed 87 points the last two weeks.


So why back the Eagles?


Earlier this season, Philadelphia dominated New York at home on a Monday night. Nelson says the firing of Kelly could be a rallying cry for this team, “The Eagles did beat the Giants 27-7 in Week 6 and it seemed like Kelly had fallen out of favor with many of the players. The team might be able to rally together for the final game under Pat Shurmur and this is a team headed for another major overhaul as everyone will be fighting for a job here or elsewhere.”


This series has been pretty one-sided over the years as Nelson analyzes the way Philadelphia has handled New York, “This is still a great rivalry game and the Giants are not in a much different situation than the Eagles as many assume this may be Tom Coughlin’s last game with major changes potentially ahead. The Eagles are 12-3 SU and ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series with wins and covers in seven of the last eight meetings at New York. The Giants have allowed at least 20 points in six consecutive games with a 1-5 finish to the season as the defense will certainly be vulnerable against Sam Bradford and a still capable Eagles offense that may actually feel some relief to have Kelly let go.”

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action
December 31, 2015




NEW YORK JETS (10-5) at BUFFALO BILLS (7-8)


Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -3.0, Total: 42.5


Rex Ryan will be looking to keep his former team out of the playoffs when the Bills host the Jets on Sunday.


New York has caught fire recently; winning five straight games after defeating the Patriots 26-20 at home in Week 16. The Jets have allowed 20 or less points in five straight games and they are clicking on both sides of the ball entering this meeting with the Bills. New York has also gone 3-0-2 ATS over the past five weeks, so its last loss ATS was Nov. 22 against Houston. Buffalo won-and-covered in its Week 16 meeting with Dallas and the victory prevented a three-game losing skid for the Bills. The team will be playing for pride in this one, as an 8-8 finish is in reach and the team can also prevent the division rival Jets from making the playoffs.


The Bills won when these teams met on Nov. 12, defeating New York 22-17 as 2.5-point road underdogs. The trends in this game seriously favor New York, as the Jets are an impressive 8-1 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season over the past three seasons. They are also 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against an opponent since 1992.


RB Chris Ivory (Knee) is probable for the Jets in this one and RB LeSean McCoy (Knee) is doubtful for the Bills, who are also without TE Charles Clay (Back).


The Jets are playing some incredible football heading into this game and one more win will get them into the playoffs. Darrelle Revis has found his game for New York in recent weeks, as he has now had a pick in back-to-back games. He’ll be there to make Tyrod Taylor pay for any mistakes he makes throwing the ball downfield.


New York would be wise to throw the football in Brandon Marshall’s direction on the offensive side of the field. Marshall torched New England for 115 yards and two touchdowns last week. He is enjoying playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eric Decker is enjoying the attention that Marshall commands opposite of him. Decker has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games and had six catches for 85 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced Buffalo.


Ryan Fitzpatrick will be looking to both of them to make plays in this one. As long as he avoids throwing picks then the Jets should be able to win this one and that has not been a problem for him lately with just one interception in the past three games.


The Bills have had a disappointing season, but they’ll be looking to play the role of spoiler on Sunday against the Jets. If Buffalo is going to beat New York then Tyrod Taylor will need to get something going in the passing game. Taylor has had a very good season for the Bills, throwing for 2,853 yards with 20 touchdowns and just six picks. He did, however, put up a dud against Dallas last week. He had just 179 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception in that one. He has to take care of the ball against the Jets and also find a way to get the ball into Sammy Watkins’ hands.


Defensively, the Bills need to find a way to stop Brandon Marshall. Marshall has been on fire over the past few weeks and nobody has had an answer for him. If the Bills can find a way to take him out of the game then they’ll have a good shot of pulling off the upset in this one.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-10)


Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -10.0, Total: 47.0


The Patriots will be looking to head into the playoffs with some momentum by beating the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday.


New England had won-and-covered in two straight games before losing 26-20 in overtime in New York last week. The Patriots were two-point road favorites in that game and made the questionable decision to defend first in overtime. That decision ended up losing them the game, as the Jets drove down the field and won on a touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Eric Decker.


The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been atrocious recently. Miami comes into this one after losing its third straight game after an 18-12 home loss against Indianapolis. The Dolphins have also lost five of their past six and they have not covered since a 20-19 win-and-cover against Philadelphia on Nov. 15. When these teams met on Oct. 29, the Patriots dominated in a 36-7 home victory. New England was an eight-point home favorite, but Miami has won-and-covered in two straight home games against the Patriots.


There are some favorable trends in New England’s favor heading into this one, as the Patriots are 7-0 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons and 19-7 ATS in road games after a loss by six or less since 1992.


WR Julian Edelman (Foot) is doubtful for New England and WR Danny Amendola (Knee) is questionable for the team. S Patrick Chung (Hip), DE Rob Ninkovich (Ankle) and S Devin McCourty (Ankle) are also questionable for the Patriots, who are likely to be missing T Sebastian Vollmer (Leg). Miami, meanwhile, could be without WR Rishard Matthews (Ribs) and Ryan Tannehill (Foot), who are both listed as questionable.


The Patriots are not in dire need of a victory on Sunday, but they’d likely prefer not to enter the postseason after having lost two straight games. Tom Brady will be looking forward to this meeting with the Dolphins, as he was unstoppable when the teams met earlier in the season. Brady completed 26-of-38 passes for 356 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. If he can come close to repeating that performance then it’ll be tough for the Dolphins to win, as the team has not been good offensively recently.


One guy that the Dolphins will want to keep an eye on is James White. White has been a serious weapon in the passing game recently, catching 26 passes for 252 yards and three touchdowns over the past four weeks. Tom Brady will be looking in White’s direction plenty on Sunday.


The Dolphins will be playing for pride when they host the Patriots on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill is questionable for this one and it may be better off for the team if he sits out. Tannehill has been lousy the past few weeks, throwing for no touchdowns with one interception in the past two games. He has not been effective as a passer this season and what was supposed to be his breakout year has been extremely disappointing. Miami will need to establish the run game against New England in this one.


Lamar Miller has rushed for 812 yards with eight touchdowns on just 175 carries this season. He has gotten just 12 carries per game over the past three weeks and that is not enough for a runner as talented as him. The Dolphins would be wise to let him run the ball at least 20 times in this game.


Defensively, the Dolphins need to find a way to slow down Tom Brady. He lit them up earlier in the season and they cannot win if he is able to just throw all over them on Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

HILTON CONTEST REPOT


Every week during the NFL season, we post the top five consensus
selections (by number of handicappers) from the Super Contest
(formerly knows as the Hilton Super Contest) the most prestigious
handicapping tourney in Las Vegas


This weeks top five


5. Steelers -3 1/2 317 Handicappers


4. Giants -3 327 Handicappers


3. Jets -3 328 Handicappers


2. Packers -3 392 Handicappers


1. Bills +3 403 Handicappers


Yes both the Bills and the Jets are in the top five, it doesn't happen
often but it shows the interest in this game.


The least favorite team in this week contest is Tennessee +2 1/2
with a season low 42 handicappers on the Titans

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY'S NFL TRENDS


NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Buffalo: 12-4 UNDER as an underdog


Tampa Bay at Carolina, 4:25 ET
Tampa Bay: 35-16 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more
Carolina: 8-2 ATS in games played on a grass field


New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 8-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Miami: 2-8 ATS as an underdog


Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 26-11 UNDER in the last 2 weeks of the regular season
Cincinnati: 8-2 ATS as a favorite


New Orleans at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 62-41 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival


Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 9-6 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 1-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game


Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 96-67 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5
Cleveland: 21-39 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6


Oakland at Kansas City, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 29-54 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
Kansas City: 13-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders


Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 3-10 ATS revenging a loss against opponent
Indianapolis: 6-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games


Washington at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Washington: 5-3 ATS off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog
Dallas: 1-5 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games


Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Chicago: 73-48 OVER as a home favorite


Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 11-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses
New York: 19-8 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points


Minnesota at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Minnesota: 11-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Green Bay: 35-18 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points


San Diego at Denver, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 81-57 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 9-21 ATS at home after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 games


St Louis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 0-7 ATS in road games off a division game
San Francisco: 6-0 UNDER in home games after a loss by 14 or more points


Seattle at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 7-0 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Arizona: 9-22 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games